Amateur Notes: Top Picks, Gordon, Zimmer, Hoffman, Nola
Baseball’s amateur talent season is in full swing, even if it generates less national hype than the football version. (Of course, if you follow the NFL, you’ll want to pay close attention today to MLBTR’s sister site, ProFootballRumors.com, for the latest draft news and rumors.) The Rule 4 amateur draft is set to begin on June 5, with the July 2 international amateur signing period just behind it. Here’s the latest:
- Despite some recent questions, N.C. State lefty Carlos Rodon still lands atop the first mock draft of Baseball America’s John Manuel. While the Astros will surely be tempted by an attractive group of prep arms that includes Tyler Kolek and Brady Aiken, says Manuel, Rodon’s two primary offerings are good enough to make him a big league pen option right now, though obviously he’ll be taken as a starter. Ultimately, his “combination of stuff, physicality and track record” makes Rodon the most likely pick for Houston, in Manuel’s estimation. The first position player off the board in the mock is high school shortstop Nick Gordon, who Manuel has going to the Twins fifth overall.
- Aiken takes top billing in the top 100 draft prospect list produced by ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link), based upon his wide arsenal of offerings and lofty ceiling. One of the largest gaps among the top potential choices (as between Law’s ranking and Manuel’s draft projection) belongs to University of San Francisco outfielder Bradley Zimmer. Law places him at fifth overall, citing his size, athleticism, and projectable power, while Manuel believes he could fall into the second half of the first round.
- It was recently reported that Jeff Hoffman, who had been viewed as a top-five choice, will undergo Tommy John surgery. While that surely bumps him down the board, Law still has Hoffman as the 25th-best player available, while Manuel thinks the Blue Jays will take a chance on his rehab with the second of the team’s two early-round choices (9th and 11th overall).
- In response to reader questions, MLB.com prospect guru Jim Callis joins the consensus holding Rodon, Kolek, and Aiken as the three top players available. While the White Sox may hope to get a college arm, says Callis, Chicago will probably take whoever is left from that trio (even if it is not Rodon) with the third choice in the draft.
- Profiling Louisiana State righty Aaron Nola, Callis says that Reds hurler Mike Leake is a good comp as a command-first, quick-to-the-bigs arm. But Callis opines that Nola has somewhat more upside than Leake, who was the most recent player to jump straight to MLB out of the draft.
- After recently discussing the set of international players expected to be signed to cap-busting bonuses, Ben Badler of Baseball America profiles five other July 2 prospects who are making waves. Leading the pack is Venezuelan outfielder Brayan Hernandez, who Badler says could near the $2MM level in his contract. According to Badler, Hernandez is both well-rounded and projectable, and could be headed to the Mariners.
Angels Designate Buddy Boshers For Assignment
The Angels have designated lefty Buddy Boshers for assignment, the club announced. The move was made to clear space for fellow southpaw Brooks Raley, who was just claimed off waivers from the Twins.
Like Raley, Boshers is a 25-year-old with only minimal MLB exposure. In 15 1/3 relief innings last year, he worked to a 4.70 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9. Boshers had put up consecutive strong seasons in the upper minors, but is off to a tough start in 2014. Through 13 innings at Triple-A this year, Boshers has a 6.23 ERA with 8.3 K/9 but a startling 9.0 BB/9.
Angels Claim Brooks Raley Off Waivers From Twins
12:58pm: Berardino updates things from the Twins’ side (Twitter links), writing that Raley was actually designated earlier in the week and put on outright waivers on Tuesday. Thinking through the reasons that the move was kept under wraps, Berardino posits that the club may have hoped to maintain leverage with Guerrier’s agent as the parties discussed the reliever’s opt-out date. (The club ultimately purchased Guerrier’s contract after he made clear he would not extend the opt-out date.)
12:34pm: The Angels have claimed southpaw Brooks Raley off waivers from the Twins, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports on Twitter. Raley, 25, was apparently exposed to outright waivers to create 40-man space for Matt Guerrier.
This marks the second time in 2014 that Raley has been nabbed via waiver claim; Minnesota acquired him from the Cubs by that mechanism back in February. As Berardino notes in another tweet, it is not yet clear why the Twins placed Raley right on the waiver wire rather than first designating him for assignment.
Raley had been working at the Twins’ top affiliate this year, throwing 14 2/3 innings of 3.68 ERA ball while generating a promising 11.7 K/9 against a less-stellar 6.8 BB/9. After spending most of his professional life as a starter, Raley worked primarily as a reliever this year, though he just received his first start of the season. Across two brief stints with the Cubs — first in a starting role (in 2012) and then from the pen (2013) — Raley has accumulated a 7.04 ERA in 38 1/3 MLB frames.
East Notes: Knuckle-Curve, Roberts, Strasburg
In an interesting piece for FOX Sports, Dan Rozenson of Baseball Prospectus looks at the increasing proliferation of knuckle-curveballs around the game, and suggests that the pitch could be a better weapon than a traditional hook — especially for hard throwers — due to its more fastball-like release point and typically greater speed. While A.J. Burnett of the Phillies is one of the game’s better-known practitioners of the pitch, many others are less well-publicized and have only recently been identified in the PITCHf/x system.
Here are a few more brief notes from the game’s eastern divisions to start off the morning …
- When Brian Roberts joined the Yankees as their starting second baseman, he not only left the only organization he had known (the Orioles) but stood to replace one of the game’s best players in Robinson Cano. Adapting to his new environs and dealing with that pressure may have explained some of Roberts’s early-season struggles, writes Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. “I think it was more self-inflected than anything,” Roberts said of his slow start. “You try hard, I think. I’ve always said it’s got to be hard for guys to switch teams all the time. I was always so comfortable. It was like riding a bike every year.”
- The Nationals are increasingly setting loose ace Stephen Strasburg, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. “I mean, he’s our horse,” said manager Matt Williams. “He’s a guy that can go 120 [pitches].” While Strasburg’s fastball velocity is down and his results have lagged somewhat in the early going — thanks in large part to giving up lots of early runs — he is striking out batters at a ridiculous 12.2 K/9 rate and advanced metrics love his work. Strasburg has thrown 47 1/3 frames through his first eight starts, which lags Adam Wainwright‘s league-leading 58 innings in as many outings. But if the 25-year-old can continue working late into games, he could well make his first push past 200 innings. That could deliver a big bump in arbitration earnings for Strasburg, who netted a relatively modest $3.975MM in his first trip through the process.
Quick Hits: Drew, Morales, Nelson, Taveras, Bukauskas
With Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales still unsigned with less than a month to go before the amateur draft, it is looking increasingly plausible that the pair will wait to shed their accompanying draft pick compensation before finding a new club. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter, teams will be able to ink either of the two free agents without giving up a pick as soon as the first day of the draft is completed on June 5. Of course, that is also the point at which their former clubs — the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively — would no longer stand to gain a compensatory choice should they sign elsewhere after declining qualifying offers.
Here’s more from around the league …
- Reds third baseman Chris Nelson will not exercise the opt-out clause in his contract that came due today, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. The 28-year-old will continue on with Triple-A Louisville for the time being, though his deal includes another opt-out date a month from now.
- A rival talent evaluator tells ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider link) that the Cardinals‘ decision on the promotion of star prospect Oscar Taveras is complicated by the team’s defensive issues. In that source’s estimation, Taveras is better suited to the corner outfield than center. The team’s best method of creating space, he opines, would be to deal first baseman Matt Adams and put Allen Craig back in the infield. As Olney notes, Adams would figure to draw plenty of trade interest given his solid bat (career .803 OPS) and lengthy team control (through 2018).
- 17-year-old high-school hurler Jacob Bukauskas, a potential first-round choice in the upcoming draft, has notified scouts that he plans to attend the University of North Carolina, according to John Manuel of Baseball America. The hard-throwing righty had pitched himself into consideration for selection in the late first or early second round, though some scouts believe he may not be able to stick as a starter. As Manuel notes, the Stone Bridge High School product will not be eligible for the draft again until 2017 if he matriculates at UNC.
Twins To Purchase Contract Of Matt Guerrier
The Twins will purchase the contract of reliever Matt Guerrier after today’s game, reports LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Young lefty Logan Darnell will be optioned to create room on the active roster.
Guerrier had a May 8 opt-out clause and was reportedly unwilling to extend it. Faced with the possibility of the 35-year-old righty testing the open market, Minnesota decided to give him a big league job. In 42 2/3 innings last year with the Dodgers and Cubs, Guerrier threw to a 4.01 ERA with 6.3 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 and a 42.7% ground ball rate, all of which were in line with his career marks over 595 big league frames.
As the club’s 40-man roster is full, a corresponding move will need to be made to create space for Guerrier. As Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com noted earlier today on Twitter, Chris Nelson of the Reds had an opt-out clause that came due today, while Randy Wolf of the Diamondbacks and Adam Moore of the Padres both have upcoming dates.
Mets To Designate Omar Quintanilla For Assignment
The Mets will designate 32-year-old shortstop Omar Quintanilla for assignment tomorrow, the club announced. The move will clear space for an as-yet unannounced active roster addition, which Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets will come via internal promotion.
Quintanilla has seen just 31 plate appearances on the year, putting up a .207/.258/.241 line. With a career .582 OPS, of course, his calling card has never been offensive firepower. Quintanilla was non-tendered by the Mets last year, but made the club out of the spring after being re-signed to a minor league deal.
While nothing is official, the strong indication is that Wilmer Flores will get the call from New York, according to a tweet from Rubin. Presumably, he will take at least some playing time from incumbent shortstop Ruben Tejada, who has struggled to a .188/.309/.213 triple-slash in 96 plate appearances. (Alongside his poorly-rated defense, that has left Tejada with among the worst fWAR tallies in the game thus far in 2014.) Flores, 22, has continued to impress with the bat at Triple-A, though questions persist as to whether he can handle shortstop defensively.
The Homer Bailey Extension And The Pitching Market
Homer Bailey‘s six-year, $105MM extension with the Reds has “shift[ed] perceptions in the market” and “ratcheted up … expectations” for players and their representatives, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. Bailey, of course, lacked a consistent track record of top-level production when he inked his new deal.
Indeed, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote in the immediate aftermath of the signing, the Bailey deal does not fit the traditional parameters of high-end pitching contracts. Though Bailey had put up two quite productive seasons in a row — he had a cumulative 3.58 ERA in 417 innings over 2012-13 — his prior work was underwhelming and he had never carried ace-like numbers. Instead, Steve explained, the deal was a prime example of a club “betting on trends, skill-set, and age.”
For the rest of the market, however, the notion of comparable contracts — driven, in large part, by past performance — is still a powerful factor (at least in shaping demands and expectations). The reported $70MM offer made by the Red Sox to Jon Lester looked somewhat paltry by comparison to the Bailey contract. And Olney writes that the deal could play a key role in prompting the Cubs to trade away staff ace Jeff Samardzija, who will presumably look to match or top that kind of money. (Though the Cubs insist an extension is still in play, that seems increasingly unlikely; in either event, they probably know the price, which is only going up with the Bailey guarantee and Samardzija’s early season work.)
For his part, Bailey made clear in comments this week that he was quite cognizant of the broader market implications when putting pen to paper. As Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports, Bailey said that he was continuing a tradition of players maximizing their contracts to raise the bar for their contemporaries and successors. “Obviously the general public and media can say, ‘These guys are making a lot of money,’ but so are the owners,” Bailey said. “How do we divide the pie?” Interestingly, Bailey said that he waited until another player (pretty clearly, Justin Masterson) had finalized his arbitration situation before his own deal was announced, out of fear that the 2014 salary included in his extension would have a negative impact.
Ultimately, Bailey chose to stay in Cincinnati because that was the place he wanted to earn his big payday. But he made clear that, even for guys who truly want to stay with a franchise, cash is still the primary factor. “The grass may not always be greener on the other side, despite what the checkbook looks like,” he explained. “Money is obviously the biggest issue. There’s no doubt about that. But happiness — it doesn’t matter how much you’re making if, for six months out of the year, you’re on a last place team, you’re miserable.”
Minor Moves: David Nick, Daniel Moskos, Chris Leroux
Here are today’s minor transactions from around the league…
- Outfielder David Nick has signed a minor league deal with the Braves, according to the MLB.com transactions page. The 24-year-old had spent his entire career in the Diamondbacks organization after being taken in the fourth round of the 2009 draft, but never rose above Double-A. He has just a .241/.294/.339 line in 568 plate appearances at that level.
- The Dodgers have released lefty Daniel Moskos, according to the PCL transactions page. Moskos, 28, had struggled to a 6.52 ERA in 9 2/3 innings of relief at the Triple-A level. The fourth overall choice in the 2007 draft, Moskos had a productive half year with the Pirates back in 2011 (2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 frames), but has not seen the show since.
- Though he had the opportunity to elect free agency, right-hander Chris Leroux has accepted his outright assignment from the Yankees, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish. Leroux has a decent amount of big league experience and posted strong results for the 2011 Pirates, but he’s had difficulty sticking in the Majors.
- A look at MLBTR’s DFA Tracker reveals an unusually veteran crop of players in DFA limbo: Xavier Nady (Padres), Heath Bell (Rays), George Kottaras (Indians) and Elliot Johnson (Indians) are all currently waiting to learn their fate.
Potential Top 5 Pick Jeff Hoffman To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
2:14pm: Perfect Game’s Frankie Piliere has more details on the situation, noting that Hoffman was recently shut down due to what was thought to be swelling in his elbow but turned out to be a small tear. A meeting with Dr. James Andrews led to the recommendation for Tommy John, which will happen next week.
Piliere reports that many teams were aware of this situation prior to today’s news, and there are even clubs with picks in the No. 5-10 range that are still considering Hoffman. One of the teams in the range to which Piliere refers — the Twins, who pick fifth — will not consider Hoffman in the first round, reports 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (via Twitter)
1:44pm: East Carolina University right-hander Jeff Hoffman — a projected Top 5 pick in this year’s amateur draft — will miss the remainder of the season with an arm injury, reports Kendall Rogers of PerfectGame.org (via Twitter). ESPN’s Keith Law adds that the news is even worse than that, as Hoffman will require Tommy John surgery (Twitter link).
Scouting reports indicate that Hoffman is an excellent athlete with a fastball that reaches 97 mph and a plus curveball when he’s at his best. The 6’4″, 192-pound right-hander has posted a 2.94 ERA in 67 1/3 innings this season, striking out 72 batters against 20 walks and holding opponents to a .216 batting average.
Hoffman’s injury doesn’t necessarily preclude him from being selected in the first or second round of the draft. In 2012, right-hander Lucas Giolito was considered a potential No. 1 overall pick before he sprained his UCL, causing him to drop to the Nationals with the 16th pick. Last season, injury concerns over former projected Top 5 pick Sean Manaea caused him to fall to the Royals with the No. 34 pick. Clubs with extra draft picks and/or large draft pools could take a chance on Hoffman, conceding the year of development time and a slower start to his career in order to land a Top 5 talent far later than originally anticipated.