There are varying reports about the visa status of Dodgers signees Hector Olivera and Pablo Fernandez. Several reporters say the pair have received their work visas and are en route to the United States to begin their careers. (Baseball Essential’s Robert Murray reports that Olivera had his visa, and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets that Fernandez had secured his.) However, Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com tweets that it still remains unclear when the visas will be obtained. The Dodgers spent a combined $70.5MM on the pair, with $62.5MM of that coming in the form of a six-year, Major League contract for Olivera. It’s not clear which to which minor league affiliate either would report. As Murray notes, Olivera still needs to take his physical, which could potentially reveal significant damage in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. If that is indeed the case, and extra year will be added to Olivera’s contract at the price of just $1MM.
Elsewhere in the Senior Circuit’s Western division…
- The Diamondbacks have reached out to prep catcher Taylor Stephenson, prep outfielders Daz Cameron and Garrett Whitley and other high school prospects about potential under-slot deals with the first overall pick in the draft, reports Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel (All links to McDaniel’s Twitter). The industry belief, however, is that the D-Backs are still leaning toward a college player at 1-1 and are using this method to determine potential over-slot targets with the Nos. 43 and 76 picks in the draft. The Diamondbacks are in line to save between $2.5MM and $5MM on the first pick, which comes with an $8.6169MM slot value, per McDaniel, which would allow them to call players that are on the board in the mid-first round and inform them they’re able to offer significantly above slot later in the draft. This type of incident happened multiple times in the 2014 draft, McDaniel adds.
- If the Rockies do ultimately decide to trade Troy Tulowitzki this summer or in the offseason, the resurgence of former prospect Trevor Story has given them a viable internal replacement, Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs argues. Mitchell notes that Story’s prospect status took a nosedive when his strikeouts became unmanageable and his overall offensive results suffered as a result. However, he’s striking out at his lowest rate since 2012 thus far, and he’s also showing considerably better power than he did during his swift decline. Mitchell uses his own projection system and likens Story’s production to seasons of previous minor league shortstops and finds a number of potentially favorable comparables, including Eugenio Suarez and Trevor Plouffe. He notes that Story isn’t likely to develop into an above-average Major League hitter in spite of the turnaround, but shortstops needn’t be plus hitters as long as they can handle their own from a defensive standpoint, which Story seems capable of doing. A league-average bat at shortstop is indeed a valuable commodity, and of course, Story’s extra time at Coors Field would surely bolster his numbers, even if park-adjusted metrics like wRC+ and OPS+ painted him in a less favorable light.
If the D-backs do choose 1 of those 3, that might be the most confusing 1st overall pick in recent memory. With only 1-2 players on an elite level now that Aiken and Matuella are hurt and dropped down boards, it would be foolish not to pick Rodgers or Swanson. Those 2 are at the top of all draft boards and are the best pure talent
Tate makes a lot of sense too as he is the highest rated pitcher in the draft. If they want to pick the best pitcher first overall.
Ahh yes, I spaced on Tate. I thought Funkrouser was the highest rated pitcher and he is considered a step down from the other 2
It is the MLB’s way of trading down. They can grab a lesser talent, cheaper, though all those guys are still top 15 players in this draft, and select a elite but injured arm later. Similar to the Royals with Manaea-Dozier. By letting the representatives of the player(s) they want know that they would go way over slot for them they would greatly increase the chance they will be available later.
They would end up with essentially two mid firsts instead of the 1st overall and 43rd. It is an interesting gamble, if Aiken or Matuella become the next Giolito it looks brilliant but if Rodgers is a mega talent like Buxton they’ll likely regret the decision. If it were me, I would go Rodgers, as there will still be plenty of good players at 43.
I understand going for an underslot player, but there are so few elite players in this draft that it would make no sense to pass on 1 of them when you are 1 of possibly 2-3 teams that can get 1
I agree, it wouldn’t be a gamble I would like to make. It is sort of a bird in the hand two in the bush situation.
I added the comparison of Aiken and Matuella to Giolito to clarify my point. They were considered the top of this class before injury so if they like eithers chances of recovering they could still end up with one of this classes top players while still getting somebody who wouldn’t be available at 43.
Manea makes a lot more sense to me than Giolito. Matuella and Aiken have crazy question marks surrounding them, whereas the TJ was the only thing keeping Giolito from going 1:1 or near it. You can’t really get a Giolito at 43.
You’re taking my comment a little too literally and splitting hairs a bit. Before injury they were all considered elite level arms at the top of their class.
Not to mention, Aiken actually did go 1:1, Matuella was favored to go there before injury as was Manaea.
What the Dbacks are contemplating is unprecedented. Teams have shifted money around but not to this level, as the Dbacks could have around $5 million to entice players to increase their demands. We have no way of predicting where Giolito would have landed in this scenario or if Aiken or Matuella will be there at 43, but that is the risk.
Ya but Matuella/Aiken come with significantly more questions surrounding them. Matuella already had the major back injury, now the TJ, he’s flashed big time stuff but he hasn’t been on the field at all the last couple of years. That’s a major issue. He doesn’t really have track record, hasn’t sustained his performance and/or stuff across a full season, there are a bunch of questions marks.
Aiken has a congenitally small UCL, and the industry has worries that he won’t be able to pitch for very long given what we know about his UCL and how it’s responded to throwing. This is a major issue.
Giolito had TJ. That’s really it. The stuff was bonkers. He had one of the more projectable frames in recent memory as an 18-year old amateur. Scouts had seen his stuff sustained over scouting circuits and California high school ball.
What the Diamondbacks are doing is not unprecedented at all. The Astros did this with Correa. They signed him for $4.8 million, with the slot value being $7.2 million. They took a discount at 1:1, and got Rio Ruiz, Lance McCullers, and others with the savings. Pretty much the exact same thing.
It seems like Cameron might be a fit – he has tremendous upside although is a bit raw, according to scouts. (He’s Mike Cameron’s son, btw). It’s possible in a draft without much elite talent the D-Backs might want to spread their money around a bit to add depth. They need help everywhere.