As others have noted today, the news that Giancarlo Stanton will miss four to six weeks with a broken hamate bone increases the likelihood that the Marlins will reach a conclusion that they might have reached anyway: 2015 doesn’t appear to be their year. Under owner Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins have never been shy about change — they’ve traded players, replaced managers and changed organizational directions far more rapidly than other franchises might. Their 31-45 start already seemed likely to lead them to sell, even before Stanton’s injury.
In fact, this year’s Marlins team bears certain similarities to their 2012 club. The 2012 team headed into the offseason intending to make a splash. Instead, they flopped, and in July, they dealt Carlos Lee, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Edward Mujica and Gaby Sanchez.
What do the 2015 Marlins have to sell, though? This year’s team doesn’t appear to be primed for a complete rebuild, and thus it doesn’t have many top-quality trade chips like Ramirez or Anibal Sanchez. The Marlins still have Stanton and Christian Yelich signed to long-term deals, and Jose Fernandez is cost-controlled and is clearly an elite pitcher when healthy. The Marlins seem highly likely to keep those players, even though Yelich is having a disappointing season and Fernandez is only on the verge of returning from Tommy John surgery. Here’s a look at who the Marlins could consider trading.
- Dan Haren and Mat Latos are eligible for free agency after the season, so they seem like obvious trade candidates. The question is what the Marlins will be able to get back. Haren is having a solid season, but he seemed mostly unwanted as of last winter, and his age (34) and stuff (Haren’s admirably self-effacing “Ithrow88” Twitter handle isn’t even accurate anymore, since his fastball has averaged 86 MPH this season) suggest he won’t fetch much now, either. Still, useful starting pitching is useful starting pitching, and the Marlins might try convincing a team in a homer-suppressing ballpark to give up a prospect or two for Haren. The Phillies got two fairly good lottery tickets in Victor Arano and Jesmuel Valentin for Roberto Hernandez last year — that might provide a good template, even though the stock of both players has slipped in 2015. The Marlins might also have to convince Haren to play for the team they trade him to if it’s not a West Coast team, given that he considered retiring last offseason rather than heading to Miami.
- Latos currently has a 5.49 ERA and missed time due to a knee injury, so his trade value would appear very limited. Since he would only be a rental, there would be little point in a contending team taking him on as a project, even though his peripherals suggest he should be somewhat better than that ERA. The curse of struggling teams trying to become deadline sellers is that they typically mostly have disappointing players to sell, and Latos is a case in point. It’s not impossible, though, that Latos could raise his trade value by pitching well over the next month.
- As the New York Post’s Joel Sherman pointed out today, Martin Prado’s versatility could make him an interesting trade chip next month, since he can play third base, second base and both outfield corners. First, though, he’ll have to show he’s healthy — he’s currently on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He’s owed $11MM both this year and next, although the Yankees are paying $3MM in each of those years.
- Pitchers Tom Koehler and Brad Hand were both recently the subject of rumors. Koehler missed a start last week with neck and back pain, but his successful return today should help the Marlins’ cause if they choose to trade him. The problem is that neither Koehler nor Hand are the kinds of difference-makers most appealing to contenders — a contending team likely wouldn’t want either one of them starting a playoff game. And since they’re also cheap and capable of eating innings, they could have value to the Marlins as they retool. David Phelps, who has been solid but not outstanding in his first season in Miami, falls into the same category.
- Mike Dunn isn’t having a good season by traditional measures, with a 4.68 ERA, but his strikeout rate (9.0 K/9 in 2015) and velocity remain intact, so a contender might view him as a sneaky way to upgrade the left side of its bullpen, especially since his contract is reasonable. He’s signed through next season, though, so the Marlins could also decide the better route might be to keep him around for another year and hope he rebounds.
- Like Dunn, Steve Cishek has a poor ERA this year. Unlike Dunn, though, Cishek isn’t cheap, at $6.65MM, and his control issues are a key reason for his downturn in performance. It would likely be hard for the Marlins to deal Cishek without taking on salary, despite his closer pedigree.
- Infielder Jeff Baker is a career .297/.352/.513 hitter against lefties, so he could conceivably help a contender in need of a right-handed bat. He’s mostly limited to first base at this point, however, so his utility is limited.
Other Marlins veterans, like Michael Morse and Ichiro Suzuki, probably have even less trade value than most of the players mentioned above. The Marlins could, of course, make outside-the-box trades involving some of their better, younger players (Dee Gordon, Adeiny Hechavarria, Marcell Ozuna), and given the Marlins’ history, it would be unwise to discount that possibility. (Relievers A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps would make very interesting trade pieces if the Marlins were to make them available.) Unlike the 2012 team, though, the 2015 Marlins don’t have many veteran trade candidates who appear likely to command a significant return.
Wouldn’t mind seeing the Braves trade for Prado. Doubt it’ll happen though.
Braves get: Prado and Dunn
Marlins get: Jose Briceno and Wes Parsons
should be pretty decent. Marlins get two decent prospects for an underperforming, hurt veteran and a loogy having an off year.
I wonder what kind of package it would take to get Ozuna. What position or type of players are the Marlins looking to get back? I would think they would like to get ML ready starting pitching, outfielders and third base.
Really don’t like it, but Ozuna may be the one budding star the Fish move.. If that’s how they approach the 7/31 deadline, or off season and look to make a shakeup. Yelich, Gordon, Hech and stanton are foundation pieces they have signed, or have a chance at signing long term and ozuna switched to Boras, plus will be Super 2 eligible after the season. He’ll start piling up arbitration this winter and they can probably get 1-2 really good prospects back for him to replenish the system after splurging last winter, then sign another mid tier OF.
I don’t see the Marlins getting rid of their position players, Latos and Haren could go!
Might sound crazy but how about C.J Wilson and a prospect for Martin Prado and then the marlins throw in dan haren?
Why would the Marlins want Wilson?
Mets get: Prado and Peterson/Parra
Marlins get: Montero, Ramirez and Niese
Brewers get: Ynoa and Latos
Why would the Brewers want/need Latos?
Trying to figure that one out also.. Especially why the Fish would care at all to take on 17m of Jonathon Niese, or any team for that matter. Miami has Tom Koehler at 500k doing a better job, plus Brad Hand at another 500k with the same numbers as Niese as #5-6 starters. Why on earth would they wish to pay Niese 7m this year, 9m next year and THEN have 2 more options on a guy who barely survives in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league?
Citi Field absolutely is not a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Would have to think long and hard about that, especially with every power hitter who has ever came to that stadium had issues with it, from David Wright, to Curtis Granderson, to Jason Bay.
It’s been a place where HR go to die for the most part, other than single seasons from Ike Davis and Duda.
Since when? They moved the fences in this year just to make it more hitter friendly.. They will probably try again next year to no avail..
The Marlins will not trade Martin Prado unless they get back a third baseman in that trade or another trade. There is no one to take his place (Dietrich isn’t the answer).
How about asking for a do over with the Marlins? Send them back Eovaldi and German then bring Prado back to the Bronx? They can keep Phelps as a consolation prize..
I’m sure the Marlins would love that do-over.
So would the Yankees.. German is gone for the year with Tommy John and Eovaldi is the same pitcher he was for the Marlins last year.. Besides the injury Prado is having about the same season he had with Arizona last year before he went to the Bronx and turned it up a notch.. Prado should be manning 2nd for the Yankees this year, not Drew..
Eovaldi has done a good job for the Yanks, and German can be a top of rotation starter. Prado is over rated.
I think it is pretty obvious the Marlins needs pitching, which is a funny thing to say in such a pitching strong era and their pitching friendly ballpark. If the Marlins were willing to spend money, they could easily, and mean **easily** rebuild their team this off season to be instant play off contenders. With the pitching reaching free agency, and the likelihood the Marlins will have a bottom 10 team this year, they could sign 1 big arm, 1 middle arm, and tack that onto Jose Fernandez and have a complete rotation. Imagine signing Price and Fister, for instance.
But it is all pointless to talk about because they refuse to spend money, they are more concerned with profits than wins. Which, you know, I guess is their prerogative, but it is terrible for their fans.
It’s true that the Marlins starting pitchers have struggled, but they are bottom 6 in runs, OPS+ and wRC+. I think they have more issues than just signing two starting pitchers.
A few of their core players had a bad April and May. It happens. Especially when your pitching is giving up 6 runs per game like they were doing. Both sides have evened out over time, but the pitching is a much bigger weakness, and one that can be solved instantly with an infusion of money. We’re talking about bringing the Marlins up to just a little below average payroll. Its not like they have to turn into the Yankees or something, just upping their payroll to 80-90M would be enough to lock down the pitching they need. If an owner can’t afford a 90m payroll in 2016, they shouldn’t own a MLB team.
Would love to see the Pirates pursue Mat Latos and Jeff Baker. Replace Locke in the rotation with Latos, and have Baker to solidify the bench/start at 1B against LHP. Despite is high ERA, Latos’ FIP (3.62), xFIP (3.87), K rate (8.07) and HR Rate (0.8) are all strong.
Plus his velocity has made a comeback since returning from the DL.
Wonder if the Yankees bite? They have to be regretting trading him now giving the horrible production they have got at second base this year.
On Prado, should’ve been more clear there
The Marlins aren’t trading Prado in their division!
The Marlins DID NOT deal Carlos Lee. The Marlins traded FOR Lee in May, and he finished his career in Miami.