Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo in the newest edition of his Sunday notes column…
- Zack Greinke may not find anything longer than a five-year contract this winter, according to a Major League source. Greinke turns 32 in October, so it’s understandable that teams would be wary about committing big money to a pitcher into his age-37 season, despite Greinke’s current outstanding numbers. It’s not as if Greinke will be suffering for money if he takes the expected step of opting out of his Dodgers contract, as an NL general manager calls a five-year, $150MM deal as “a good starting point.” That GM also predicts Greinke will ultimately remain with the Dodgers since they can afford his salary demands.
- “Some believe there may be a breaking point between” Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter, though Cafardo notes it is “probably too early to call this one” a potential front office change in the making for the Orioles. Last week, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported on some bad feelings within Baltimore’s front office, stemming from owner Peter Angelos’ refusal to let Duquette pursue the Blue Jays president’s job without compensation.
- Former Cubs manager Rick Renteria could re-emerge as a managerial candidate this winter, with Cafardo speculating that the Marlins or Tigers could be fits. Cafardo notes that Renteria was the finalist for the Tigers job before they hired Brad Ausmus, and that position could be open again if Ausmus is fired in the wake of Detroit’s disappointing season.
- Joe Kelly has pitched very well over the last month but he may not have a spot in the Red Sox rotation next year, leading Cafardo to suggest that Kelly be converted into a closer if Koji Uehara can’t recover from his fractured wrist. Cafardo sees the 2016 Boston rotation as Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Wade Miley and a yet-to-be-acquired ace, though I’d argue that Miley’s spot is far from set in stone. Plans could yet shift if the Sox move a starter in a trade, and Cafardo hears from an AL GM that Miley and Buchholz “would have value” if Boston shopped either starter. (Presumably the Sox wouldn’t move a promising and controllable arm like Rodriguez, and Porcello’s big contract greatly limits his trade value.)
I would trade Miley and keep Kelly as a starter. His ceiling is just too high, and a rotation can survive with him as a #5 even if he doesn’t keep pitching like the way he has recently. He’s not the answer in the ‘pen; big splashes like Craig Kimbrel and Darren O’Day are necessary, perhaps even more than a #1 starter. If Miley goes, then you have Kelly, Owens, and Johnson as options as #5 (assuming another starter is added). If Kelly can’t do it, then move him to the pen and see what you have with Owens and Johnson. If the way Kelly and Porcello are currently throwing is indicative of 2016, then I’d be very comfortable with them at the back of the rotation.
I think your last point kinda sums up the problem. The sample size right now of Kelly and Porcello is really too small to be indicative of 2016, especially when the rotation is already a weakness. I don’t think you can realistically go with both of them in the rotation in 2016 as the issue that the Red Sox faced this year is quite possible to occur again with that as a plan. The only way you can do that is if they can get a solid 1-2 pitching combo, but then I think there are better options to fill out the rest of the rotation than Kelly.
There really aren’t that many better options at the moment, at least on the team. Running a 5 man rotation, optimally they should slot Buchholtz at 2, Miley at 3, E-Rod at 4, and Kelly at 5 and look for an ace this offseason. The reason that won’t happen is because of Porcello’s contract. Boston is stuck with that albatross so they’ve got to work him in, in hopes of him coming around enough to use him or trade him. I’ve been saying for a while, that if Kelly could get a lock on his control and stop walking so many guys, he’d be a shoe in for a starting position.
Gonna be a lot of competition for the good FA starters this year. I know there are a lot of them, but you have to figure the Yankees are in that market. Certainly the Dodgers (maybe more than one). Angels very likely. Phillies maybe two. Cubs, Cards wouldn’t surprise me. Pretty much every high budget team is in that market.
the angels really do need another ace but I don’t think they will go all in and go over the 189 luxary tax. they also need a left fielder, upton heyward or cespedes.
I’m not so sure the Angels would see it the same way. Richards is presumably the ace, with Weaver and Heaney slotting in behind them. Skaggs will be back at some point next season, Newcomb will progress and Wilson, though overpaid, is still good enough to be a backend piece. They should go get a LF before they add to a position of depth
CarGo would of been the perfect bat to get at the deadline, but I am pretty sure the rockies would of been asking for Newcomb in return. Newcomb I think is going to be the real deal, Skaggs will be a quality number 4-5 starter, I think if cj wilson is healthy next year they trade him, Give weaver a small extension to his contract, I don’t care if he’s not the same ace, he’s their leader and would be a good mentor to the young pitchers. As for left field, Upton Cespedes or Heyward would be the best fits there. I am pretty sure they will pick up Murphy’s option. And not sure if they resign freese
I have to agree that Miley’s spot in the rotation is unlikely headed into 2016. Dombrowski likes a great rotation, and he is the most moveable asset to clear a spot. I could see the 2016 rotation looking something like:
Free Agent Signing (Price please)
Trade Acquisition (Carrasco would be great, but somebody else is more realistic)
Buchholz (for half the year, then Owens/Johnson when he goes down with injury)
Rodriguez
Porcello
Also, Kelly would be converted to relief, but not as the closer. You can’t rely on him that quickly. If Uehara doesn’t rebound following injury, hopefully they have enough bullpen depth to survive. That means signing O’Day and getting another reliever (Clippard via free agency, or perhaps Kimbrel via trade) in order to make the bullpen a potential strength. I don’t think the offence needs a big overhaul. I’d leave it the way it is.
The only move I would make on offense is calling the Padres up for a possible Shields-Sandoval swap. That could fill the hole at #2 and not take prospects to do so. Shields has had success in the AL East, his K/9 is a career-high (which means his stuff hasn’t diminished), and with all the talk of his high HR/9 rate, I think the problem is his BB/9 rate of 3.4. For a pitcher who hasn’t had control issues in the past, I think it’s solvable.
Also, I think if Porcello is the #5 and Kelly is kicked out of the rotation altogether, Brian Johnson should be shopped. He doesn’t have the skillset to convert to the pen if needed like Barnes, and having five major league ready starters for one spot (Owens, Kelly, Porcello, Barnes AND Johnson) is a bit excessive.
I don’t really think Shields would provide a big enough upgrade to the Red Sox rotation. His home run rate is up a lot this year, and he is pitching in a pitcher-friendly park. I’m not sure if that is fixable as I think it is partly due to decline, and I don’t think it is worth the risk. To me, he isn’t a whole lot different than Wade Miley at this point, except higher paid. I also think keeping Sandoval is a good move because the depth at the position isn’t great (Holt should be a utility player, and Moncada is too far away) and I think it is worth gambling on a rebound (oppose to having another middle of the rotation starter). As well, others have pointed out that the swap doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Padres either for various reasons (money-wise, etc.), so I don’t think it would be a beneficial trade for either side (and even less so for the Red Sox if they have to eat money to make the deal happen).
If the red sox really wanted to make a splash for a trade, how about swihart plus others for sonny gray?
If Swihart is the best piece going back in a Sonny Gray trade, that means Bogaerts, E-Rod, Betts and Moncada are not moving…I would take that and start doing back flips away from the negotiating table
Not sure who the A’s would ask for in return though , but If the A’s were willing to trade Gray , the red sox and the cubs are the two teams that can pull of the trade.
Twins, Pirates, Dodgers, Phillies, Astros all have the pieces, but you are correct, Presumably CHC and BOS are the cleanest fits
They do but the red sox and cubs had deep farm systems
I don’t think the Red Sox and A’s match up well enough to pull off that trade. They already have Vogt as their starting catcher. I also don’t think Beane moves Gray yet, though you never know 100 % with him.
Well , how did that go with Donaldson? I know they said Gray is untouchable and he’s not going anywhere but if somebody gave up the right prospects, gray is gone.
The difference with the Donaldson deal was A) he was a few years older and going into arb (getting a lot more expensive); Gray doesn’t hit arb until 2017, and B) Toronto didn’t just give them prospects, they gave them a relatively established, younger, high-upside replacement at 3B; that deal doesn’t get done for just prospects. Trading Gray for prospects doesn’t make sense on any level unless they’re going for a total rebuild (unlikely).
It could happen, thats how billy beane is
Truthfully, I think more needs to be done for this to be turned around in one offseason. DD likes his guys, and I have no idea what Avila is doing in Detroit. But the #2 SP might be Anibal Sanchez. Not sure what the package would be, but a top 3 of FA Ace, Sanchez, Buchholz/rookie, E-Rod, Porcello (Kelly as depth) would really do wonders for this team. Sanchez is signed through 2017 with an option at a reasonable clip. Package going back would have to start with Margot, but I would do that trade regardless
Sanchez has been pretty terrible this year, and is owed quite a bit of money. If it cost Margot, I would never do that deal. Like I said, I don’t think the Red Sox can afford to be risk-takers if they want to realistically make the play-offs next year. Having Sanchez as the #2 represents a lot of risk.
I think Joe Kelly should be in the bullpen make him a reliever like the royals did with Davis. But the red sox I think could go after Zimmermann.
Sanchez has been hurt this year and has 2 yrs.left at $16.8mill and a 3rd yr. option of $16mill. That’s near QO money and lower than what most mid-tier FA will get this winter. I doubt Detroit wants to move him with the pitching holes they already have.
Not sure why everyone is so ready to throw Kelly to the bullpen. Yeah, he was pretty much the worst starting pitcher in baseball for the first half of the season; the guy with the ‘stuff’ but too dependent on his fastball. However, it really does look like he has put it together. It is not a huge sample, but enough to think it is legit, he has the 9th best ERA in the majors over the past month and is 7-0 in that stretch. To me, that sounds like it is his rotation spot to lose. So, TradeAcquisition/Buch/Kelly/Erod/Porc (only because no one will take his contract, so we have to hope his much shorter sample size turnaround is also legit) – that leaves Miley and Owens in the cold. I actually think the RS pitching situation is better setup to trade than go the FA route – Miley and Owens for Carrasco? Or sign a FA and Miley for a 8th inning guy and Owens for Kimbrel???