Former Orioles executive Andy MacPhail believed in the “grow the arms” philosophy because he felt that getting pitching was expensive and getting it any other way proved to be expensive. After watching J.A. Happ ink a deal with a $12MM AAV, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com agrees with the expensive part. Happ, of course, finished the 2015 season with a stellar 1.85 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates, but he posted a 4.64 ERA in his previous 20 starts for Seattle. Happ’s overall track record is one of mediocrity and Melewski can’t quite understand why the Blue Jays paid that much for him. He’s not alone in that thinking, either.
Here’s more on Happ and other items out of the AL East:
- Interim GM Tony LaCava says the Blue Jays inked Happ because he fills an urgent need for the club without forcing Toronto to give up a prospect, big leaguer, or draft pick, as John Lott of the National Post writes. Overall, it sounds like LaCava is not even close to done. “We’ve had dialogue with any number of (free agents), a wide net we’ve cast, and we still have conversations with various free agents and their agents and also with other teams looking at the trade market as well,” LaCava said. “I wouldn’t rule anything out right now, but certainly we did address some of the bigger needs that we had.”
- Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of SiriusXM (audio link) see tons of red flags when it comes to the Blue Jays‘ deal with Happ. Bowden is troubled by the enormity of the contract, which appears to be based off of Happ’s small sample size of excellence. The ex-GM expected Happ to command $20MM over a two-year deal, but a three-year, $36MM pact was far beyond what he imagined.
- Wallace Matthews of ESPN.com pondered Bartolo Colon as a fit for the Yankees. Colon, who will be 43 in May, has averaged 196 innings in each of the last three seasons and his 2015 ERA (4.16) was lower than that of several Yankees starters. Still, Matthews expects Colon to start feeling his age sooner rather than later and doesn’t feel that he would be a good match for the Bombers.
Yeah im a little upset about us signing Happ for that amount, but even when he was in toronto, when started using his fastball more he definitely had much more success. There arent many left handed starting pitchers than throw 94+ with solid command. I still think the jays should gone after a Leake, Gallardo or Simardzija type guy. It wouldnt have cost a crazy amount more than Happ did and would definitely be an upgrade from Happ. Maybe Happ figured something out in Pitts, we will see. Not too happy about our final rotation of Stro, Dickey, Estrada, Chavez and Happ though. It could either be very good or a complete disaster. Definitely needed someone who has consistent results.
I absolutely disagree that Happ is a “mediocre” pitcher. Given the fact that in 8 years he’s been with four or five different organizations and has still be able to compile quality innings and an ERA around 3.50 to 4.50 means that’s he’s worth $12 mill a year in an era where pitching is everything. Not only that, but the AL East basically needs to overspend to be able to compete with each other as well.
It’s pretty simple stuff, really, where do they get these “experts”. Yes, perhaps they paid a bit of a premium, but someone has to pitch in their rotation, the Jays bought 3 free agents so far this year, who can pitch in their rotation for the same price one of the premium arms will cost, without giving up a draft pick. A number 5 starter is going to cost you what? 8-10 million, so they are paying him as a 4. Happ, doesn’t really have a lot of miles on his arm for a veteran, (like a Buehrle et la) and since he was in TO before maybe they figure he’s mature enough and been around enough, and they know him well enough, (good in clubhouse?) that he’s due to put a couple consistent seasons together, he has a good arm, lively stuff, from the left side. The jays have an elite major league offence, and basically, if Happ can pitch 180 innings at a 4.00 era the jays will take that. They needed someone to replace Buehrle. Happ should do that, at a fraction of his 19 million cost. If you stack Happ’s numbers up against some of the other tier two or three free agents (who all turned down 15.8 million QO’s) he’s actually in pretty much the same boat. If the Jays waited to sign someone, and Happ comes off the board, then who would they sign? They didn’t want to tie up all their payroll in one David Price. Happ doesn’t tie up huge amounts of money short, or long term, allowing the team to maintain flexibility going forward. (Bautista EE? etc.) The Jays also have one of the games premier catchers in Russell Martin which should also help. I also believe Aaron Sanchez has a chance to be a #1 or #2, as does Marcus Stroman, both need some seasoning, obviously, but both have showed tremendous potential. This allows Happ to go about his business as a number 4, as he is getting paid. They paid the same thing for Marco Estrada, and they are thinking on him the same as Happ.
If you look at the other hurlers, that require a draft pick, Gallardo is a slop baller, the Sharks numbers aren’t really all that tantalizing, didn’t do much in Oakland or Chicago, Wei Chen, okay so Boras wants 22 million, great. It should also be noted some guys don’t want to play in Canada, Happ was more than Happ-y (lol) to return to the Jays, which obviously helps. The jays still have some holes to plug in the pitching staff, and having a few extra dollars was big, they want to rebuild the farm, as they depleted some prospects last year, and to hang on to Dalton Pompey and others.
I’m not sure what these experts expect,
This sounds more of you trying to talk yourself into it rather than solid reasons on why Happ is a better choice as opposed to other options.
No, basically, what options did they have, they traded their depth Hoffman, Norris, Castro, etc, and Beuhrle and Estrada were free agents, Hutchison has struggled. You either buy a few cheap free agents, whatever that is, or you buy expensive free agents. Take your pick.
A jury of your tier
Pitcher IP K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP xFIP fWAR
Scott Kazmir 373.1 20.7% 7.1% .279 3.33 3.66 3.86 5.5
J.A. Happ 330.0 20.4% 6.9% .305 3.90 3.82 3.81 4.3
Mike Leake 406.1 16.9% 5.9% .280 3.70 4.03 3.70 4.0
Doug Fister 267.0 14.5% 4.3% .281 3.10 4.17 4.08 1.6
They didn’t buy 3 free agents… They traded a solid asset for Chavez.
Thanks. I messed that up
“…someone has to pitch in their rotation…”
That’s how you spell championship.
this is pretty much the same as Scott Feldman getting 30 for 3 two years ago, so while i think its just as ill advised, im not understanding why people are shocked by the number.
Ace is 25-30 AAV on the open market. 4-5 is easy 10 million. 12 AAV doesn’t reflect Happs performance. It’s a reflection on baseballs increased revenue and sweet TV revenue streams.
Okay, maybe I’ll should of said this, your all right, terrible move, yup, terrible, the sky is falling.
I’m going to wait and see what Steve Melewski thinks of all the moves his Orioles are going to make, this should be hilarious, I can’t wait. Let’s see, they can’t afford Davis, can’t afford Chen, got no farm to trade from, their front office has been in turmoil since Duquette wasn’t allowed to leave, oh boy, I can’t wait to jump on whatever positive spin he’s going to try and put on that trainwreck.
“Matthews expects Colon to start feeling his age sooner rather than later”
Well, we can already see where he’s wrong. He obviously didn’t take into account Colon owning the Fountain of Youth. Haha.
Bartolo is either locked in or a mess…there is very little in between, as evidenced by his last two years with the Mets. A team could get a lot of good value from him on a 1-2yr deal *IF* they understand that some days he’ll need a quick hook. I’d love for him to re-sign w. the Mets on a 1yr discount…but there are too many holes out there for #4-#5 guys, that he’ll land somewhere for more money. Great club house guy to boot.
Think even Bowden’s 2/20 estimate was pushing it. Shapiro was supposed to be frugal? On the other hand I never would have guessed Volquez would be starting Gm 1 of the WS so I guess guys can turn it around. Happ has been getting passed around similar to Volquez in the past.
if anything you go after Kazmir or Fister first, I still can’t fathom $12M AAV for Happ, I thought he’d be lucky if he got $8M AAV
Maybe this is just what a pitcher like Happ is worth in this market, jaysfan77 does have a point that someone needs to be in their rotation and they know Happ so there is a comfort level there. Saying they should have gone for Kazmir or Fister…why?? Kazmir is a fly ball pitcher, why would you feel so good about him in the Rogers Center? He would not put up numbers anywhere similar to his numbers in Oakland. Fister might sign for a bit less, but how can you be sure what your getting with his performance this past season. Might be paying 8-9M for someone you can’t even keep in your rotation by the all star break. I think Happ will be a perfectly serviceable 4 or 5, and who knows maybe he is one of those guys who after landing with the right coaching staff in Pitt has just ‘clicked’ and will win 15 games with a 3.50 era, pretty good 4-5 starter there!