Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has informed members of the media that right-hander Corbin Burnes will undergo Tommy John surgery. Burnes will therefore miss the remainder of this season and possibly the entire 2026 campaign as well. Radio broadcaster Chris Garagiola was among those to pass the info along. Burnes is already on the 15-day injured list but will be transferred to the 60-day as soon as the club needs a roster spot.
The news is devastating but unsurprising. Burnes was pitching on Sunday when he called the training staff out from the dugout. He departed that game and the club later announced that he was experiencing elbow discomfort. He went for various medical opinions in the following days but it seems the worst-case scenario could not be avoided, so he’ll go under the knife. Given that Tommy John surgery usually requires 14 to 18 months of recovery time, Burnes is definitely out for the rest of 2025. A return in late in 2026 is possible but can’t be guaranteed.
Burnes is well known as one of the best pitchers in the sport. He won a Cy Young Award while pitching with the Brewers in 2021. He posted a 2.43 earned run average in 167 innings that year. He struck out 35.6% of opponents, only gave out walks at a 5.2% clip and got grounders on 48.8% of balls in play.
His results have backed up a bit since then but he’s still been excellent. Over the next three years, his strikeout rate continued to fall but it didn’t prevent his overall run prevention much. His ERA finished around 3.00 in each season from 2022 to 2024, even though his strikeout rate fell to 30.5%, 25.5% and 23.1% in those seasons.
He was one of the top free agents in the most recent offseason. MLBTR placed him second in the class, behind only Juan Soto, predicting Burnes could land a $200MM contract over seven years. He naturally fielded a lot of interest, with clubs such as the Orioles, Blue Jays and Giants among those who were connected to him most often.
In late December, he finally picked a new team. Arizona was a surprising destination since the club already had a number of rotation options and wasn’t heavily connected to the starting pitching market. But Burnes is an Arizona native and reportedly wanted to be close to his family, so the two sides made it work. The six-year deal guarantees Burnes $210MM, though with $64MM of that deferred into the next decade. It also affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2026 season.
The Diamondbacks had made a number of investments in their rotation in recent years but this was the largest by far. Going into 2024, they gave Eduardo Rodríguez a four-year, $80MM deal and Jordan Montgomery also got a one-year, $25MM guarantee plus an easily-attainable vesting option.
Despite the heavy amount of investment in starting pitching, the Arizona rotation hasn’t been a strength. That was true even before this Burnes news, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at in a post for Front Office subscribers.
Losing Burnes for the rest of the year will only compound the problem. Montgomery himself required Tommy John surgery before the season started, so he’s already been out of action all year. Rodríguez has a 7.05 ERA in nine starts. He went on the IL in mid-May due to shoulder inflammation and was reinstated today.
Despite having one of the best lineups in baseball, the Arizona pitching has contributed to a fairly disappointing season so far. A recent four-game win streak has got them back to .500, but their 31-31 record still has them 3.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment. They will have to try to climb back into the race without Burnes. Their current rotation consists of Rodríguez, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. Kelly is having a good year but Gallen, Pfaadt and Rodríguez are all struggling. Nelson has been in a swing role and is only now taking up a rotation spot in the wake of the injuries.
With the club hovering around contention, decisions will have to be made about the club’s deadline plans. If they fall back in the standings, they have a number of impending free agents and could have a lot to sell. That includes Gallen, Kelly, Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. Montgomery is also an impending free agent but naturally has no trade value since he’s out for the year. Though if the Snakes can hang in there, adding at the deadline could obviously be the move.
Those impending free agencies and the Burnes surgery will also lead to questions about the 2026 rotation. As of now, it consists of Pfaadt, Rodríguez and Nelson. There are some prospects who could potentially take up roles but it’s clearly a very different picture to the imperfect group they have now.
Turning to the Burnes opt-out, it now seems incredibly unlikely that he triggers it. Though he could come back late next year, that will likely be for a handful of starts at most. It would be hard for him to build up enough of a platform to turn down the four years and $140MM (with deferrals) left on the deal.
That’s a largely moot point for the future. For today, the takeaway is that it’s real bad news for the Diamondbacks. Subtracting Burnes blows a big hole in their rotation right now, while the club is trying to salvage the season, and into the long-term as well.
Photos courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas and Allan Henry, Imagn Images
F
Starting pitchers across the league better start trying to get extensions. Looks like the free agent market for them is going to change drastically in the near future.
Please elaborate on how the FA market will change dramatically in near future?
teams being weary of signing power throwing 30+ year old pitchers hitting FA for the first with a lot of miles on their arms? If teams stand the line on limiting future deals then maybe the byproduct would be to sign earlier with me money up front and pay more for prime users but less years for guys past 30?
Stand the line as in collude? That didn’t go so well the last time. There will always be one franchise who wants to win more than another.
It won’t work. If you want to sign younger guys, they’ll want longer contracts. A GM can always say no, but that just makes it easier for LA, NY, Philly, etc.
They throw to hard and they spin it to much
Because no one is going to want to continue to pay starting pitchers when Tommy John surgeries continue to explode.
paddy furnichu must mean “lacking common sense” in some weird language. 🤷♂️
@Damn Yankee$ I disagree.
To where?
Max Fried?
Carlos Rodon?
Noo. Gerrit Cole?
Marcus Stroman?
Time will tell, but teams may hesitate to give out anything other than short term contracts to any pitcher approaching 30. Similar to NFL running backs, mileage has to start becoming a factor.
TOO
The Yanks draft 20 to 25 power arms out of college. As soon as one starts to show some stickyness I would be willing to pay then after their 3rd season to a 6 or 7 year deal that takes them to 32 and then let them walk.
You only need one owner to pay. That will always happen.
Torpedo Bat:
Steve Cohen wants to win as much as any owner, but he has a baseball president that’s very careful in the way he selects and pays for pitching. I could see other teams becoming more disciplined in the contracts they give out for starting pictures, particularly when they are over 30. Not collusion. Just smart business.
@Damn Yankees, It seems you may be making a short-sighted assertion from a news story today about Burnes.
Yes, pitching injuries have been on the rise for several years now. But to assume Burnes’ injury is some final straw for MLB organizations is not realistic in an open free agency market.
Sure, Moreno and Nutting and maybe Kendrick now will have that view.
Next mega contract likely be Skubal’s and if he hits the open market it likely be above 300 M.
Mets have great pitching and havent gotten an inning from the two pitchers that they signed to big money contracts.
Senga
Holmes
Canning
MeGill
Peterson
Blackburn
Manaea
Montas
a lot of depth and they have a few nice prospects:
Jonah Tong
Brandon Sproat
Blade Tidwell
Senga, Holmes, Manaea and Montas all under contract, MeGill and Peterson are in ARB, with six starters locked up for ’26 and a number of prospects, it will be interesting to see if the Mets extend Canning or let him walk in FA, he has pitched like an Ace this season.
Paul Blackburn had a decent start the other night too and is a starter on many teams around the league, I think he is likely part of any trade the Mets make at the deadline.
No. I’ve been paying attention to the explosion of Tommy John surgeries in recent years. Now we’re seeing it with many of the elite pitchers in baseball.
Doing your own research there? lol
If only 2 or 3 franchises bid on free agent pitchers it will stiffle movement. Pitchers in their late 20’s early 30’s in general are a bad long term investment.
Doubtful, players will get their money as they should. Teams generally take out insurance policies on long term high price contracts to protect themselves for situations like this. What we have seen as more of the parity in free agency is players signing shorter term deals to higher AAVs or vice versa for luxury tax reasons-see DJ LeMahue
Similar to NFL running backs, mileage has to start becoming a factor.
=================
It’s the circle of life. RBs became more and more irrelevant, until it went too far. Then Philly signs Barkley and wins a SB, and the Raiders can’t win without a RB, then have to use a #1 on one.
A good GM anticipates the changing winds and stays ahead of the trends.
It won’t. Given the general success of TJS, the most you’ll see are stipulations in contracts that give the team an additional year or so in the event a pitcher on a long-term deal undergoes TJ.
Call it “the John Lackey stipulation.” From SABR:
“On December 14 [2009] Lackey signed a five-year contract worth $82.5 million with the Red Sox. The contract included a clause that if he missed a full season due to injury, the Red Sox would have a team option at the end of the contract worth the league minimum.”
There are additional ways to price injury risks into contracts: Fewer years, lower AAV, vesting options, team options rather than player options, fewer player options or with penalties to the player, etc., etc., etc., etc.
No, there will always be teams willing to pay up for premium starters. Just because you wish that the market for them is going to change drastically doesn’t make it so.
Nope, they are not as short sighted as you are. What they are doing is adding provisions in the contracts that if a pitcher misses a certain amount of time to IL the team gets basically a free option year or two. Players recover, you may miss them this year and next, but think more than 2 years ahead. Yes some pitchers don’t ever come back the same, but more and more do.
Freddy, who wants to sign a pitcher to a long-term contract while planning on missing them for a year or two of that contract? What agent is going to want provisions for injury? It’s not shortsighted. It’s just common sense. We shall see.
@Damn Yankee$ The teams that want to sign the best available pitchers. It doesn’t matter what you nor I think what constitutes “common sense”. The market speaks for itself. You can it dumb or whatever else you want.
You still don’t get it. The markets are going to change based on these injuries and fewer teams are gonna be willing to bid, which will drive the price down.
@Damn Yankee$ Yes, you keep saying that but it doesn’t mean that it will happen. That’s merely your prediction.
F
You’d think after the disastrous contracts of Grenkie, madbum the dbacks would learn. They don’t need to take these giant risks with SP. if they get a big fish on the hook overpay for 1 year that’s it. Do 40-50 million for a hired gun. Don’t do 6,7 years. And the healthy pitchers who have success year after year into their late 30s might actually make more money if front offices get smart and only offer one year deals.
Literally zero reason why any team out of the top 10 biggest spenders should be given a 30 year old plus pitcher multiple years. Zero.
Just going to throw that out there for you ThatsIT. Can you tell me how many starting pitchers are under 30 with next years class. Then how many of them are worth a multiyear contract as a starter.
Zack Greinke gave the D’backs 714 innings of 3.40 ERA pitching in 114 starts over four seasons. Kind of puts that “never learn” shoe on the other foot, doesn’t it?
But at least they’ve got Corbin Carroll locked up for years on a team-friendly contract. A contract that a lot of the geniuses around here thought was a bad idea for the Diamondbacks at the time. Because he was “unproven” and “lacked experience” and all the other usual dumb comments they come up with when rookies get signed to extensions. Ya win some and ya lose some.
@hank yup and tim anderson got knocked out by jose ramirez.
what does that have to do with 30+ yr old sp and big contracts about the same as corbin carroll and his contract.
Ouch
Wow, that horrible news. Good thing the Yankees chosen Fried instead
Leave it to a Yankees fan to find a way to make everything about them
Would you have preferred the pathetic prayers?
Yankees fans think they own baseball. So do Cardinals fans.
And how about your response lambchop?
I sense an inferiority complex
I don’t eat meat.
Here come the yankeecrybabies.
Go boo your best player in the playoffs
THIS.
Yes!
I’m a Yankees fan, and I feel bad for every injured player, it’s devastating for a team to invest so much in to a player and watch them get hurt. It’s definitely a reality though, and part of the game unfortunately, and it always will be.
Cardinals fans don’t own anything
The fans from LA do
Oooh, is that just a siren call for injury karma to come get you, or what.
Yep, the Yankees are very lucky they didn’t didn’t invest a massive contract into a marquee pitcher who subsequently needed Tommy John Surgery.
@ Vegas, You’re being sarcastic, maybe? Though Cole did have the internal brace and not TJ surgery.
Umm – he never considered signing with the Yankees so it wasn’t their choice
@tuck
What makes you think he didn’t? if it were the Backs and no one else then the deal withdraw been sooner.
@tuck
What makes you think he didn’t? if it were the Backs and no one else then the deal would have been sooner.
Don’t count your chickens
“Don’t count your chickens”…Ok, but now what am I supposed to do with all these live chickens in my kitchen?
I can’t take them to the butcher unless they’re counted so now what?
You can, but only after they hatch.
Take care of your chickens
Let me understand, you got the hen, the chicken and the rooster. The rooster goes with the chicken. So, who’s having sex with the hen?
Something’s missing
They’re all chickens. The rooster has sex with all of them.
My cousin Ernie.
Fried has past arm issues too. He has been lucky to avoid them so far.
Fried chickens?
Fried chickens have arms?!?
No, but they do have drumsticks.
Mmmm, drumsticks.
Armed and delicious
“Take, these broken wings. Learn to pitch again, learn to pitch so freeee”
But the still lost Gerrit Cole
mlbnyyfan:
For now, but who knows how well the Fried contract will age either. In fact, I feel pretty confident it’s not going to age well. Nothing against him, but these contracts just don’t seem to age well at all, in general. But I understand your point, this happened right early on in the contract with Burnes, so not a great sign there at all.
Every pitcher will need TJS. But Fried is healthy right now and one of the best pitchers in baseball..
Mike Elias actually dodged a bullet here, but it still doesn’t get him off the hook for the bums he DID sign.
Kind of implies he knew that Burnes would need surgery. Is that what you are saying or did I misread your meaning?
It was well documented that his velocity and strike outs were declining every year and hard hits and homers were increasing. I posted that multiple times when everyone was ripping Elias. No he didn’t know he’d need TJ, but he’s one the smart GMs that knows you don’t blow $100’s Million on long term contracts for pitchers on the downside of their careers.
Elias has his faults, but i agree with not overpaying a pitcher.
Yeah Elias just blew 100 mill on
Morton
Gibson
O Neil
Sanchez
Sugano out performing his 4.2 something peripherals
So much better
Everyone knew it was a possibility. Hell it’s probably 50/50 for any given hard thrower even if healthy
Just more proof of the theory that everyone can predict the future after it happens.
BlueSkies_LA
Just more proof of the theory that everyone can predict the future after it happens.
======================
While no one can predict the future, his K/9 decreased from 13.3 to 12.6 to 10.8 to 8.4. That’s pretty unusual.
Whereas, his K% rate has changed very little in the last three seasons. Are you suggesting he’s been nursing a torn UCL for three years? Now THAT would be pretty unusual.
Plenty of people were wary of signing Burnes because of decreasing strikeouts. It doesn’t take a crystal ball.
Here’s your all-purpose MLBTR post. Perfect for all after the fact predictions:
Plenty of people were wary of signing ______ because of _______. It doesn’t take a crystal ball.
Do your own damn research. You act like this came out of nowhere. Teams were hesitant to give him a big deal. He had warning signs.
“Are you suggesting he’s been nursing a torn UCL for three years?”
=======================
A tear? No.
A wearing down? Yes. It’s a cold hard fact of life that pitchers’ arms wear down. You have to try to anticipate the reasons. You have to pose the question “suppose this continues”.
When Pujols was signed, that was the first question I asked. Suppose his .906 was his new norm at the age of 31, instead of the 1.000-1.150 people were use to seeing? Was he still worth it?
Suppose the 8.4 was the new norm for Burnes. At age 30, that is likely going to continue to decline. Is that worth a 6-year contract?
He had warning signs.
==========================
A lot of posters in here mentioned it. And Burnes said that AZ easily had the best offer. There are reasons for this.
The posters here know more about the health of athletes than the people who spend millions to hire them. I mean, obviously. Silly me for thinking otherwise. I wonder why the teams aren’t monitoring these boards for medical advice. All the experts are here.
@joebrady….I hadn’t heard that before, but I don’t follow O’s or DBacks closely.
I recall hearing that Burnes signed with AZ for LESS than other offers because his young family lives in AZ.
But maybe I missed another article about that NOT being the case.
The posters here know more about the health of athletes
========================
Of course not. But I do know he had continually declining K-rates, and I did mention this concern when he signed. If you want to say I was right, but for all the wrong reasons, fine.
But I was right.
Being right for the wrong reasons is another way of saying that you guessed. If you really believe you are good at guessing, I can recommend playing the lottery.
“Educated guess”
“Dodged a bullet” generally implies the opposite: that he avoided a bad situation accidentally (by not signing Burnes in this case)
Not sure of the man’s thinking but if it takes 6 plus years to sign a starting pitcher these days, and you don’t because of contract length, then yes, the man deserves some kudos. Excellent discipline.
Buster Posey, too. Though no one could have predicted this.
You think ? What do you think the odds on a first TJS for Burnes in the next 6 years would have been ? Would have to be the favoured outcome wouldn’t it ? Or am I overstating the frequency of TJS ?
It just seemed to me that Burnes carried an exceptionally high decline/wear-and-tear/injury risk (especially, relative to the kind of mega-contract he was likely to get).
As a Giants fan, not only was I relieved that they didn’t sign him, I was even a little bit glad that it was a division rival that did – especially one that can’t easily just write it off…if you know what I mean.
But hey, for all we know he’ll come back with his new elbow and be lights out in 2027-2030. At a $35 AAV guarantee, they’d better hope so.
foppert3
What do you think the odds on a first TJS for Burnes in the next 6 years would have been ?
===========================
I’d have taken 4-1 he’d have had it in his first season.
goob
As a Giants fan, not only was I relieved that they didn’t sign him
==========================
As a RS fan, I didn’t want him either.
We’re getting into the butterfly effect here, but there’s no way of knowing that Burnes would have actually gotten injured had he still been pitching in Baltimore
Because the weather is different? This is true for lightening and car accidents not for this type of wear and tear injuries.
Are you sure it’s wear and tear though? Not just a specific pitch he might have thrown in a certain count in a game situation?
There are just too many variables to immediately think this would have happened for sure in Baltimore.
Modern-day max-effort/velos/spin-rates have turned TJ surgery into a cottage industry.
Ouch.
Good signing
Yikes
D-Backs and big time FA pitchers lately. Montgomery, Rodriguez, Burnes.
And I thought the D-Backs were the most improved team in baseball before the season started.
Yea they acquired Pillsbury dough boy naylor from cleveland too. Close all the all you can eat buffet table for Josh. He will be out of baseball in 3 years,eating himself out of the league !
Chrome: Don’t worry. He’ll get in shape at Lance Lynn’s gym and buffet chain.
Erod was a dumb signing to begin with. The other two just didn’t work out
Bumgarner
Snake-bitten or self-inflicted?
Bumgarner
Greinke wasnt all that great either out in the desert
He had a bad first year but I think people remember that more than anything (not that those teams were all that memorable anyway). He got them a decent haul of prospects that busted.
@Easy as 1 2 3 Greinke, of course, was terrific for AZ, with a 133 ERA+ in 777 innings in 2016 through most of 2019. They put you in the HOF if you do that three more times.
4 GGs, had a 4th place finish in the Cy, 1.091 WHIP, 63-30 record.
And Bumgarner 5/85M.
Well, that’s a bummer for Arizona…
I doubt the Braves would trade him to Arizona with as well as he’s pitched for them
Bummer will be traded. Braves are toast. No depth is their greatest weakness and it doesn’t get the attention it deserves.
Sorry to hear that. Montgomery now Burns. down for next year too. Although Montgomery is out of years right? Still it stinks. I hate when good pitchers go down for that long.
And now Arizona is stuck with another albatross contract just like with Bumgarner.
Going to be difficult for them to keep building a contender when they’re paying Burnes $30-35M+ to recover from surgery.
The Bumgarner mistake was completely different. Bum was no longer the same pitcher he’d been in his glory years with the Giants when Arizona signed him. That was just bad judgement.
Also, insurance may help alleviate Burnes’ cost over the next 12-24 months.
I still would like to understand contract injury insurance. Who underwrites it, what are the premiums, the terms, percentage of remittance, etc
Insurance isn’t really a thing anymore. Way too expensive, too many stipulations, and hard to get them to pay out.
It certainly is if you don’t have it!
Me too. Right on 64. Front office risk assessment is interesting.
Burnes productivity will be hard to replace, but typically these contracts are insured by the team so they will not be impacted by his salary as he recovers.
Yes there is insurance but insurance companies are not dumb – the premiums and deductibles are huge now. So it may offset some of the cost but not all. Would you insure a long term contract for a pitcher?
It’s hard to say whether he’s insured or not. Arte Moreno chose not to insure Anthony Rendon. And then there was Strasburg and the Nats.
Word on the street says that the D-Backs don’t bother insuring their players. Take this with a grain of salt though; “we” have never been able to verify this as a fact.
From afar, DBacks owner does seem to fit in with that thinking.
@gwynning. Most likely Soto, and ohtani. It’s super expensive and probably only worth if it’s 500+
Insurance companies are not in business losing money and they have huge fixed costs in administration.
Bumgarner was a self-inflicted wound. This one’s bad luck. We’ll see. He comes back at the end of 2026 and sticks around through 2030, he may even be worth it.
I kept waiting for teams to jump in on Montgomery last offseason. Especially wanted the Cubs to sign him. Teams must have seen something, especially with the season he had last year.
Pack: I don’t like the cubs so I was hoping they’d sign him, too.
Winning post.
Same. I thought he might not be a bad target for the Mets until they piled up enough depth to leave no place for a ‘prove it’ guy.
Between whatever was on his fMRIs, a 6.23 ERA in 2024, his peripherals completely crashing, who would want him short of the backs picking up all but say $2-3m of his salary? And you wouldn’t be offering anything resembling a useful prospect.
His price was so low it didn’t make sense for AZ to deal him. If he rebounded to his 2021-23 level he’d be a stud with a great postseason rep, while the alternative is saving about 1% of your 2025 payroll. It had to be he had way too much upside to deal that away for the trivial return.
Would be interesting to see how many stories on this site about a pitcher experiencing “elbow discomfort” eventually lead to TJ surgery. I’d peg it at about 75%.
rct: I don’t think one P who went for a second opinion avoided surgery.
9 times out of 10 a 2nd opinion comes about because the player involved is trying to “avoid” surgery. The 1st opinions in these cases usually say “cuts needed”
Masahiro Tanaka and Seth Lugo were both diagnosed with partial UCL tears early in the major league careers and, unlike Gerrit Cole, did not eventually get TJS, but I don’t recall if either went for a second opinion. I would imagine that there are examples of borderline partial tears where medical advice differed and they chose PLP and rehabilitation rather than surgery. It’s a little different, but RA Dickey lost a large signing bonus because it was discovered that he did not have a UCL. The assumption was that his elbow would be unstable and need TJS to add a UCL. I believe Dickey wrote that he went for a second opinion (though I can’t find my copy of his bio to confirm), and we know how that turned out.
We need some Google sheets for this.
D Backs FO been making all the right moves in the deadlines and offseasons in recent memory, this stinks for them. They got a squad of ballers
Pham!
The owner of the D-backs makes another huge starting pitching acquisition that implodes all over again. He can’t catch a break.
And to think almost no one wanted Griffin Canning at 1/$4.25.
Finally
Alotta folks in baltimore complained o’s didnt resign him
Mayb they dodged a bullet
Burnes with no elbow is still better than what the O’s are sending out there half the time
Pay attention to what is actually happening rather than your own bitterness. Os are dealing with their own injuries but the pitching has settled in nicely.
They have a team era of 5.10 which ranks ahead of only the Rockies and A’s.
I prefer facts over emotion
Yeah, it was an unthinkable first 6 weeks of the season in just about every way imaginable. But look up the stats over the last 3 weeks. Essentially the entire rotation has settled in. It’s an average rotation, but it’s not a league-worst rotation either.
Last 3 weeks they’ve played
Athletics 25-40
White Sox 21-43
Cardinals 35-28
Red Sox 30-35
Nationals 30-33
Mariners 32-29
Settled in my arse. They’re playing sub 500 teams and you’re acting like they figured things out. They’ve played one decent team in the cardinals last 3 weeks and
Won 5-2
Lost 7-4
Lost 6-4
Losing the series against the Cardinals
Context matters
osfandan
But look up the stats over the last 3 weeks.
===========================
Way too many people are overly-focused on small samples. Everyone on the team is playing better, and they are still without O’Neill, Mullins, Westburg, and Mountcastle. Grayson will return at some point.
You can’t undo the past, but at any point, I’d bet that they are over .500 going forward.
Hate to see an arm go down…
@Vegas. Not that lucky Cole out until late next year. Haha
Long term pitcher contracts just never end well.
Not that any really do.
There goes the Dbacks’ playoff hopes…
The dead money is incredible around MLB. Most clubs will just cut back or offload salary when/if these big injuries quickly push them out of playoff contention. That’s the thing about so called “pro player” glad he got his and too bad so sad for club/owner stance……the domino effect of not committing money to others in prime such as extensions occur (or trading such guys to deep pocket clubs that can take advantage of clubs drowning in IL/post-prime performance bust player $$).
And they’re gonna build him back up slowly over 2027, so that’s 3.67 years out of a 6 year deal down the drain to the tune of $128.45M of the $210M investment as a complete wash…
Good thing the deal was already structured with 6 years and $64M worth of deferrals. But that’s still $35M in luxury tax hits and $24M a season in real time value down the drain, plus they’re down their number 1 starting pitcher.
Between Burnes and Bumgarner, the D’backs have NO luck with free agent pitchers.
They did pretty good with Big Unit and Bloody Sock… but it has been awhile. Flags still flying, though!
I mean yeah, that was a once in a generation one two punch, no denying that.
Time to do a mini rebuild and try to contend in 27?
I’d say almost definitely. They have a ton of guys that will be gone next year anyway. Al those guys will get returns.
Suarez
Gallen
Naylor
Kelly
Miller
I think all those guys get you a top-200 prospect and a couple are closer to top-125. That’s a lot of talent for guys that aren’t returning. Even a guy like ERod might work himself into position where AZ is writing a huge check to get rid of.
Definitely worth eating salary to get a few guys that might be ready in 27.
Wonder who they have signed for 26 that they can start shopping now.
Something has to be done about these injuries it’s a serious epidemic. There’s been way too many TJSs this year alone.
We need to develop pitchers with Kung Fu Grip
Nothing will change. Players make a lot of money and are willing to take that risk. The only thing is a shorter average career timespan.
Putting emotions aside, Jordan Montgomery is a good example. If he never throws another pitch again, he can walk away at age 32 next year with $68M in career earnings. I think most young pitchers today would sign up for that and can hold their heads up high.
Hey what happened with / what is going on with Jordan Montgomery? I remembered he signed that very lucrative ‘bounce back’ deal with the D’backs, was awful his first season…. how did they excuse avoiding him pitching in 2025?
Btw- Maybe the D’backs shouldn’t sign free agent pitchers… between Bumgarner, Montgomery and Burnes and even in its own way the Greinke deal, they have absolutely no luck… even their one successful big ticket free agent pitcher signing, Greinke, was for naught because the team around him couldn’t match his productivity to make his performance over those 6 years worth the money.
And you wonder why people call you a troll. Hmmm….
Im so flattered you’re a fan of my comments! I never remember any of y’all.
Bless your heart!
Your walls of showerthought gibberish are hard to miss.
Love you too.
A+ Torpedo
Montgomery had TJ surgery, also.
Is this the first time for him? (I.e. it’s not a reinjury…)
RIP 2025 Diamonbacks. Time to trade an infielder and give a job to Lawler?
Ketel Marte is the sort of high salary good player that gets offloaded if the team spirals downward….b/c teams leave you with the high sunk cost vets.
I doubt they’ll trade Marte. They just gave him an extension to basically be a D-Back for life. He’s the face of the team along with Corbin Carroll, and I don’t think either of them are going anywhere. A lot of their other players might be soon though.
Eugenio goodbye.
Both Marte and Carroll are really good ball players. Az dumps too many other players so they end up being the rear end of baseball in the standings for too long then maybe those two don’t want to remain with a team that trades away any possibility of a playoff run. Eventually, everyone wants to win it all and if management divests the team of that chance to win there will be all sorts of ship jumping.
Posey might be 1st year President of Baseball Operations but turns out he was smart not trying to sign Burnes as a FA
Did he have the option to sign him?
*29 front offices
More proof positive of why many teams won’t sign pitchers to expensive, lengthy contracts. Hopefully, Arizona has some form of insurance.
Gallen and Kelly are both free agents at seasons end, leaving the following as healthy ’26 SP options: Rodriguez, Pfaadt, Nelson, Diaz, Mena, Henry, and maybe, Jameson. Imo, the Dbacks don’t re-sign Gallen, but this increases the likelihood they re-sign Kelly.
Well one way to look at the trade deadline with the rate starting pitching is going down throughout the league this year, and with starting pitching becoming a premium it may really help the D’Backs if they fall out of the WC race by the deadline that Gallen even as bad as he has been this year, may bring back a high amount of prospects in return if a team is willing to gamble on him.
Sorry to hear this. Not a Arizona fan, but a baseball fan.
This stinks
Well said. Hate to see ballers go down. That being said, whenever a freshly signed pitcher goes down I always think of that Far Side with the deers…
“Bummer of a birthmark, Hal…”
That’s the right attitude!
Agreed. Was happy for him because he chose to be close to family instead of taking every dollar thrown his way. It’s a bummer.
Welp, for the next couple of years, he’ll be spending more time with his family than he’d planned.
This is the response. No team-bashing, contract-bashing, numbers-fixating jealousy/hatred, just being genuine about baseball… Something certain users and people need more of
Arizona must have a crack medical staff to not see this coming. Or a medical staff on crack.
How about a crack medical staff on crack?
Sure it’s a heavy blow losing Burnes for 18 months or so, but even a guy as important as Burnes is he is only one player. Speaking as a fan of the team with 15 pitchers down, hang in there Snake people. Stuff happens.
Dodgers don’t count. Their roster is like 3 teams worth of players. They’re the lemmings of baseball.
The Dodgers roster is like that Treehouse of Horrors episode where Homer couldn’t stop creating clones of himself.
Typical troll response.
I mean, referencing the Doyer’s injuries to make the dback fans feel better is a bit underhanded, given their endless resources compared to AZ
It’s not a troll, rather the truth
Have it your way.
Hold the pickles, hold the lettuce, special orders don’t upset us.
Ummm, it can be both?
Must be an Orioles fan.
I would hate to be an Orioles fan.
I’m not overly familiar with their system but it does seem like AZ has some live arms in AA and a few useful ones in AAA. With a .500 record, an offense currently running a 117 OPS+, a solid trade, then supplementing from the farm with guys who can put up a 4.50-4.75 ERA, and grabbing a couple of live arms at the Deadline for the pen, they should have a fair shot at the postseason. Fg has them with about a 1 in 3 shot, currently, since they have no chance at the division title.
About half a run of that 4.76 ERA looks to be bad luck, so just neutral luck alone from here on out might balance the loss of Burnes.
As a baseball fan, many pitchers requiring elbow surgeries with rehab times measured in whole seasons is just bad for the game. Pretty soon we will be watching the pitchers who have not yet needed the surgery and wondering if every start is the last one before an elbow injury.
Wish Corbin Burnes has a good result and can get back to his pre-surgery form.
Burnes’ swing and miss stuff peaked ’22 and in ’23 there was a difference. In ’24 we saw it remain at the lower level, Burnes was still really successful. Very reminiscent of how Gerrit Cole lead up to TJS.
A+ post Cleveland
Cole’s best results came in 2023, when his K rate dropped from 11.5 to 9.6, down from a peak of 13.8 in 2019.
Yes, Cole was really good in ’23. Just like Burnes he was very success prior to getting injured. My point isn’t they weren’t successful but the fact their strikeout stuff declined with a lot of specific metrics to their arsenal might indicate they had accumulated injuries to possibly their UCL. It should be noted that lots of pitchers will pitch with partial tears or mini tears in their UCL, and it they don’t get TJS until they can throw.
Another great indication a pitcher is about to get TJS is how McClanahan went down in ’23. His velo and stuff were fine but his walks jumped because he didn’t have the same control. Cole and Burnes took a different approach, they didn’t sacrifice maintaining control and command to keep their stuff up, it also helped to delay the inevitable surgery.
Brutal. Very good shot he’s out next year as well.
At least he gets to spend a ton of time with his baby for a while. It goes by so fast.
That’s one way to look at it. As an Angels fan maybe it will help dissipate my anger with Rendon.
It isn’t happening this season for the Snakes with that bullpen. Time to retool on the fly. Gallen, Kelly, ERod (snicker), Geno, Naylor all available a.s.a.p.
Orioles fan here. Enjoyed his work with us last year. Damn shame…feel bad for the kid. Hoping he bounces back stronger than ever.
My dbacks are cursed with free agent pitchers
No they are just stupid and sign the worse ones.
Worst?
If Arizona wants back in this playoff race… Jordan Lawlar for Freddy Peralta.
Peralta is getting $8m this season and $8m next season. You won’t find a better pitcher for that money. The Brewers have been getting almost nothing out of SS this season.
Milwaukee is a single game back of the wildcard. They are not trading their #1 pitcher for anything less than an obscene king’s ransom. Not too mention AZ is 3.5 back in the same wildcard hunt.
Peralta fits the budget in 26.
Hoskins and Woodruff salaries are gone.
Lawlar does seem like a king’s ransom though. He’s a top prospect that is major league ready to fill a massive hole on the Brewers. The Brewers would have many seasons of team control for the remaining 1.5 seasons of Peralta.
RIP
Seems like the Yanks were wide to prioritize Fried over Burns. I wonder if that was just a choice need l based off of an easier path to sign him or if they saw something in Burn’s Megan that have them concern?
I think the Red Sox had the yips regarding Burnes for this reason.
Fried better pitcher better deal.
They immediately pivoted to Fried once Soto signed. Boras was never going to allow Burnes to sign that early in the offseason.
Lefties are better for Yankee Stadium. That’s the first reason. Then the second would be Burnes wasn’t new to AL East, having spend ’24 with Orioles. Recency and repetition give hitters advantages. Third, Burnes recently shifted to a contact over strikeout approach. Fried is much more comfortable creating contact outs, namely he focuses on groundballs. This matters in Yankee Stadium to limit the popups going out in RF.
Didn’t Burnes prioritize the Dbacks over every MLB team?
Burnes’ home is in Arizona, so yeah he did prioritize it.
Increase rosters to add 5 more pitchers. Go to 6 or 7 person rotations. Reduce innings, pitches and increase days between starts/appearances. Maybe there will be fewer injuries.
I think baseball should quit using pitchers and just use pitching machines instead.
Didn’t we see the precursor to this the second half of last season when Burnes’ effectiveness dropped?
It’s almost as if there has been an over-abundance of TJ surgeries a they’re completely unrelated to the Dodger training staff as many have accused.
Maybe it’s the pitch clock and an obsession with everyone throwing 98?
DBacks are done this and next year. Adios.
Time to SELL SELL SELL!
Why do I have the feeling he knew that was coming…
So sorry Dbacks fans. Maybe your team will surprise us and still reach the playoffs?
Burnes spurned the Giants significantly higher offer to sign with the Dbacks. I’m sure Posey feels like he dodged a bullet.
That said Burnes is an outstanding pitcher and as a Giants fan I hope he comes back strong in 2027.
First I’m hearing of this
There was no offer from the Giants.
What’s the higher offer?
Posey did not enter the bidding for Burnes.
It could be worse. They could be the Rockies.
Actually I take that back. The Rockies have spent less money and have the same results as the D-Backs.
They have?
Not making the playoffs the last 2 seasons = the same results.
Um okay.
2023 WS?
2 years ago?
Bags be lookin for good rotation rentals at the deadline….
Rodriguez went 5 innings tonight against the Reds. Gave up 2 ER on a Homer. Decent start. Dbacks certainly not dead for ‘25.
Bullpen in shambles, starting pitching certainly underperforming, but a dynamic offense still there.
They may only need to pick up one starter and one lights out bullpen guy at the deadline and be just fine. With that lineup they have to go for it.
The reputable outlets like fangraphs that have AZ with about a 1 in 3 shot at the postseason seems about right.
You might have to call up a couple of starters from AA to make it work, though.
This probably has something to do with being on the Orioles last year, being an Orioles pitcher is a guaranteed jinx!🤣
Very horrible news. You knew it was bad when he was cruising and then heard something and took him out. Horrible
2025 30 Arizona Diamondbacks $31,666,667 6.049
2026 31 Arizona Diamondbacks $31,666,666 $10M of salary deferred for six years
2027 32 Arizona Diamondbacks $36,666,667 Burnes may opt out of contract after 2026 World Series; $11M of salary deferred for six years
2028 33 Arizona Diamondbacks $36,666,667 $11M of salary deferred for six years
2029 34 Arizona Diamondbacks $36,666,666 $11M of salary deferred for six years
2030 35 Arizona Diamondbacks $36,666,667 $11M of salary deferred for six years
All that money and a major league career most if not all of us will never make or have, sorry, Comrade Mikhail.
I wish Corbin Burnes the best on his way to recovery!
You assume he will recover well from TJ surgery
No doctor ever guarantees success unless they are a fraud
Wasn’t he a pitcher that yankee fans pissed and moaned about the yanks not signing him ?
Nope. Cashman zeroed in on Fried for a $200 million plus bargain. 8 years.
You seem to misunderstand what I said unfortunately
They sure now how to throw obscene money at broken pitchers
First Jordan now Corbin
Woof.
Giants cheapness saved them from this.
Terrible to hear. Will be great when he comes back I’m sure.
The Giants added $350M in new guaranteed money to their 2025 payroll. That put them among MLB’s highest spenders – in Posey’s first season at the helm.
So they weren’t being cheap when they, very reasonably, declined to enter the bidding for Burnes shop-worn arm. They were being smart. That’s $200m of dry powder they still have, that could potentially be used as needed going forward.
That argument could be made for literally any free agent. He had a 2.9 and they could easily won by going up 10%
Stop repeating what you hear on sports talk radio
My opinion is my own and is specific to the player in question and his recent free agency.
Haven’t listened to sports talk radio in decades, sonny.
Somehow, I’m not surprised that commercial sports-blather is your go-to frame of reference.
Yeah, that cheap Willy Adames deal’s looking better by the hour.
That 102/.229/.136 line since May 17 just screams ‘money well spent!’
The Diamondbacks tried but their free agents haven’t produced. I knew Eduardo Rodriguez was a dud but Montgomery and now Burns is deviating.
This is making the David Stearns’ approach to starting pitching look like absolute genius.
Bumgarner a while back.
Dodger fan and baseball fan. Burnes is a tough competitor and wish him well.
Tommy John Surgery was not a thing till…well Tommy John. Pitchers from Cy Young to Warren Spahn to Bob Gibson to Nolan Ryan pitched complete games and could throw 150-200 pitches. Youth/Highschool Baseball today has little leaguers playing all year round and traveling teams and ruining arms. The MLB “goal” is to go 6 innings and under 90 pitches. The HOF will never see statistics like they did back in the day and I’m only talking the 1990s, not the 1890s.
Yeah, the game has changed. No one gets to pitch to pitchers any more. Instead of hitting 1 HR in a season SS’s now hit 20-30 HR. The ball is far livelier. Parks got smaller. Players got huge. BITD someone 6′ tall and 170 lbs was a big guy. Now he’s one of the smallest on the team.
The only way for pitchers to thrive is to throw all out on most pitches, whereas in the past you could go half-speed until someone got on base, and if you made a mistake the backup catcher didn’t hit it 400 ft. He might get a single cut off in the alley because the ball was soft. .
Amazing that pitchers could survive like Gary Nolan of the WC 1975 Reds. He went 15-9 with a 3.16 ERA while striking out, get this, 3.2 per 9.
What a shame the guy takes a discount to play closer to home and gets TJS. The DBacks stretch the payroll to make a deal work with a great pitcher who wants to be there and now he’s out a year and a half
Wow…….”The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).”…..from a May 21st article in MLB Traderumors……
Don’t think “discount” is the proper term for a guy who got his long term committment of 6 years for a deal that topped $210 million….to play closer to home…..I don’t think anybody would consider 6 years and $210 million “taking a discount” when you don’t really know what the competitive offer details were……
What a shame the guy takes a discount to play closer to home
=========================
‘Dbacks went to six years and $210M for the highest offer.”
I assume playing in AZ helped, but he took the highest offer.
At this point, it’s an overpay. 200 mil is a discount,lol
Guess he won’t be opting out next year.
When will clubs learn to stop giving pitchers long-term deals? I can’t think of any that have fully worked out.
The D-Backs really made a strong push for 2025.. even though they are still in the mix for the WC spot, they have a ton of guys that are free agents after the season. Seems like they might be early sellers.
I wouldn’t expect that. They’ve got enough to stay around .500, which at the Deadline tends to mean you’re only a couple of games out of the last wildcard spot.
Which means the FO isn’t going to sell. Not unless they want to get hung
The Greinke deal worked out well. The Max Scherzer deal was about the best FA contract ever signed. The Yankees had it made with Cole until he opted out and they foolishly let him back in. Verlander with Houston? They’d do it all over again.
And that’s just the start of the list.
I seem to remember in 1999 the Diamondbacks signed a 35-year-old pitcher to a 4-year deal. He proceeded to win 4 straight Cy Young awards.
Mets dodged a huge headache with this guy.
For Elias, sometimes the best off-season desl you make is the one you don’t.
They couldn’t get it done, but should have if it was possible. Teams in playoff contention need to make those signings to make deep runs, they carry risk, but not every deal fails. Elias instead embraced risk in a far worse way, a way with a low ceiling if it succeeded. They are(were)(kind of still will be) in contention next year and shouldn’t be discouraged about making a big signing. Hopefully they get a better GM in the off season, one more cognizant of their needs.
The Brewers won this one and to a certain extent so did the O’s