Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn will miss the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery today, the team announced today.
Lynn’s injury is a significant blow to the Cardinals’ pitching staff, though the team does have some depth to get around the loss of its No. 2 starter. Adam Wainwright is expected to be healthy again for the duration of the 2016 campaign, and he’ll be joined in the rotation by Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia, whose $11.5MM club option was recently exercised. Other options in the rotation include Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales, though Gonzales dealt with shoulder injuries in 2015, as did the impressive but inexperienced Martinez. Between the unexpected loss of Lynn, the potential departure of John Lackey via free agency, and the 50-game suspension for top prospect Alex Reyes, it seems reasonable to expect the Cardinals to enter the both the free-agent and trade markets for rotation upgrades.
General manager John Mozeliak acknowledged today after the announcement that the injury to Lynn alters the Cardinals’ course of action this winter (Twitter link via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold). While the team hasn’t previously dabbled in lucrative starting pitching contracts for free agents, that could change this winter, Goold notes. It’s obviously extremely early to speculate, but one would think the injury to Lynn considerably enhances the Cardinals’ pre-existing interest in a reunion with Lackey.
The top of the free agent market, of course, consists of David Price and Zack Greinke, while Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto occupy the next tier. If there’s such a thing as an opportune time to lose one of your best starters, the Cardinals have found it, as this year’s free-agent market features virtually unprecedented starting pitching depth. Other options for the Redbirds would include Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Doug Fister, Mark Buehrle and more.
The Cardinals have the lowest first-round pick, No. 30 overall, by virtue of owning the Majors’ best record in 2015, and they could potentially gain two compensatory picks if Lackey and Jason Heyward sign elsewhere. I’d imagine that would make the team less wary about parting with its first-round pick to bolster the rotation.
Over the past three seasons, the 28-year-old Lynn has quietly solidified himself as one of the more valuable starting pitchers in the National League. The former No. 39 overall pick has tallied 580 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball in that time, averaging 8.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate. Fangraphs rates him 20th among starting pitchers in wins above replacement in that time.
The Cardinals considered Lynn reliable enough to lock in his three arbitration seasons last winter with a three-year, $22MM contract. A healthy Lynn, of course, easily justifies that type of financial commitment, and he did so in 2015. He’ll be penciled in for a $7.5MM salary next season and $7.5MM the following year as well before hitting the open market heading into his age-31 season.
Damnnnnn
Lynn never did look the same aft er the first couple of months. He was walking more batters, wasn’t getting strikeouts, and he never seemed to go past the 6th inning. Hopefully, when he does return, he can return to full strength. Go Cards!
lynn, like most cardinal pitchers, throws their 100 pitch in the 5th or6th inning
Lol yup. From 2015, Lackey and Garcia were really the only ones who could pitch farther more often.
It seems like every year this team has a major injury to a starting pitcher and the organization steps up. Losing Lynn and potentially Lackey and Heyward to free agency will be big blows, but I am curious to see what the Cards do next.
As a Pirate fan, I am pretty sure that this will devastate the Cards just like all of those 2015 injuries ruined their season.
“As a Pirates fan” ha ha so dumb when people have to throw that in there. This will not “ruin” the Cardinals 2016 year dude.. Stick with football.
That was his point…
More evidence that “Cardinals have smarter fans” is a myth.
Who has claimed that Cardinals have “smarter fans”? That makes no sense at all.. I just think is funny when people feel the need to state who they are fans of when it’s not relevant at all to the topic.
A little slow…
I think he’s giving your squad some respect brother. I know sarcasm is hard to notice on the Internet sometimes
Well this was totally unexpected and totally sucks.
I was thinking Lynn was a great trade piece to offer… And with the Reyes suspension pushing him out of coming up to the majors in 2016 (likely), the rotation as is of:
Wainwright (returning from injury),
Wacha (injury concern),
Martinez (returning from injury),
Garcia (major injury concern)
… now desperately needs at least one additional arm via trade or free agency signing. Lyons and Marco are not long term 2016 options, they are suitable for spot starts next year only.
Mark Buehrle 2 years 20 Million. Wouldn’t mind a 6 man rotation as well to start the year given all the past injuries and potential injuries.
And he’s a lefty who could eat up innings. I like that idea
It’s a great idea – he won’t need a 2 year deal seeing as he was strongly leaning towards retirement, just one will do.
Has there been any studies about why Cardinals pitchers always seem to get hurt all the time? Who is their coach? Is this a pitcher-abuse thing?
Yes, Matheny abuses their pitchers.
One good example is the day after they lost Carlos Mratinez for the year, in late September, Matheny decided to throw Jaime Garcia 8 innings after the lead was 5-0 after 5.
Matheny leaves his starters in too long and only trusts three relievers in his bullpen (Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness)
Thanks for the reply and example. Interesting, hadn’t heard much about it – just thought Wainwright was little fragile but now guys like Lynn who have an easy action are getting hit with it when he shouldnt be going through this. Its surprising then, that no one on the coastal media has written fluf pieces on him championing his “old school” ways.
I wonder if Molina has any control over this too, is he calling too many offspeed pitches mixed with heaters? Or is it all coming from Matheny? Apologies for my ignorance, I don’t watch much Cardinal baseball as much as I do other teams.
Dont worry CJ. Were all fans of other teams 🙂
Excellent point about the Cards top 5 Starters!!! That’s been my thoughts all along. EVERY ONE of them are coming off injuries or chronic fatigue. Yet Mo still says the team COULD actually stand pat and be a contender!!! Here comes the low hanging fruit again —–that rots before the end of each season!!! I hope I’m wrong, but Mo and the owners have a long history of not signing quality difference maker free agents! They need to sign either– Price (preferably), Grinke, or Zimmerman. Plus, go after Heyward and see if they can back load his contract to where they could also get Chris Davis. Then they’d ha enough spare parts to pick up a front line reliever, with closure experience that’s still in his prime. What do you think?? Am I crazy to wish and hope????
At this point, resigning Heyward (obvious) and signing a top of the line pitcher is a must. I do believe it is more likely for NEITHER to happen than for both to happen or even one to happen.
It’s the usual. DeWitt will not open DeWallet. Pirates are similar with their spending tendencies. Cubs should be crowned already.
See opportunity in misfortune Mr. Mozeliak. You now have an excuse to spend big on Price.
Well, I would think he wants to resign Heyward instead but it remains to be seen
I hate to say it but I would rather sign Justin Upton for less than what Heyward is going to demand. Lets not forget Upton is only 2 years older than Heyward and has much more offensive production (which is what the Cardinals lacked last year). We really dont need to go out and spend a ton of $$ on defense in RF. Grichuk and Poscotty showed signed of above average defense last year as well.
Totally agree with you RedFeather. Their offense needs inmprovement. However, Im hearing that should they not sign Heyward, they could sign Chris Davis, although I doubt that.
Personally I’d rather they let Heyward walk, move up in the draft when the Yankees sign him, and give up the 30th overall pick to the Orioles by signing Chris Davis. That aside though, if the Cardinals want to re-sign Heyward, I don’t see why they couldn’t do both. The Cardinals have a lot more money than people seem to think.
Lackey could sign a 2 year deal with the cards Having the compensation pick hanging over him works big in the cards favor…still a big loss Lynn is one of the toughest
Yes it does, Lynn was considered their #2 starter, so I do believe something will be done to the rotation. Whether it be outside help or from within, the Cardinals always find a way.
I can’t see the Cards signing one of the top pitchers. Probably have to sign Lackey now because their rotation has huge injury concerns. Maybe Gallardo or possibly Leake would be a good option.
I didn’t see the Cards signing a top tier pitcher, but now I honestly think it is a possibility of Lackey doesn’t accept the qualifying offer or sign a two year deal with them. The cards can back end load some deals with their huge TV contract beginning in 2017
Cards will sign Grienke
I hope so.
I hope so but I surely don’t think so.
I would love to see the Cards sign Grienke above all other pitchers. He can handle a bat and is the best pitcher on the market. The cards have Garcia and Gonzalez as Lefties in the mix already and I wouldn’t want to trust my playoff series on David Price. So many injury questions with the Cards rotation we have to get a top tier innings eating stud.
Looks like the Tommy John bug struck early this season, (or should I say offseason).
This is what I was afraid was going to happen, I just didn’t know who would be the “lucky” winner this time. Unfortunately it fell to the Cardinals workhorse. How this changes their offseason plans remains to be seen.but it doesn’t change the need to either resign Heyward OR go after Chris Davis to add some pop to the line-up. Anyone dreaming of a scenario where they go get Davis and Heyward as well as a David Price is crazy. Since Davis and Heyward will command a contract of a minimum of $140 million (it will be higher) and a minimum length of 6 to 8 years, the Cardinals will look to acquire a pitcher that they can sign for around 4 years at a decent price. I believe Jordan Zimmerman to be that man or maybe a Doug Fister. Trading for pitching is an option too but who are you going to get to add depth and quality to the rotation without giving up the future? If the Cardinals are serious about being able to expand payroll and spend more then now is the time to show it.