The Red Sox have acquired star closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres. It’s a stunning move for new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose club will now have both Kimbrel and ace reliever Koji Uehara to lock down the late innings.
There’s a significant haul going back to San Diego. Top outfield prospect Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje, and lefty Logan Allen make up the return. All four players rated among the thirty best Red Sox prospects in MLB.com’s latest ranking, with Margot (#25) and Guerra (#76) also checking in among the top 100 prospects league-wide.
Kimbrel, 27, has long been one of the game’s very best pen arms. Though he is no longer quite as mind-bogglingly dominant as he was back in 2012, he’s still an ace reliever of the highest caliber. Last year, he worked to a 2.58 ERA over 59 1/3 innings, with 13.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Those were excellent numbers, of course, but didn’t really come close to what he’d done to that point, as he carried a lifetime 1.43 ERA into the season.
To a large extent, the fall-off (if you can really call it that) was driven by a jump in Kimbrel’s home run proneness, as he allowed career highs of 0.91 HR/9 and a 13.6% HR/FB rate. But basically all other relevant markers stayed constant. The batted-ball profile of opposing hitters appears to be in line with prior seasons. And Kimbrel not only maintained his average fastball velocity, but bumped it to a career-high of 97.3 mph.
Boston will pick up three years of control over Kimbrel. The contract includes a $24MM guarantee over the next two seasons and a $13MM club option in 2018 that carries a $1MM buyout. The Sox will be responsible for the entirety of Kimbrel’s remaining salary in the deal.
It remains to be seen what the move means for the rest of Boston’s offseason, but at first glance, it makes free agency appear the likelier route to add a major starting pitcher. Of course, the Sox still have plenty of prospects to deal, and could still consider dealing young MLB-level players like Jackie Bradley, so there are still plenty of options.
We’ve already seen San Diego GM A.J. Preller swing huge deals on the buyer’s side, and now we know he can part with major assets, too. The Pads had already shipped out another established late-inning arm, Joaquin Benoit, during last week’s GM Meetings. It looks to be another offseason of change for the Padres.
Naturally, the first thought upon hearing about the deal goes to the swap that brought Kimbrel to the Padres on the eve of Opening Day 2015. San Diego was able to get him while parting only with a good-but-not-great pitching prospect in Matt Wisler, young outfielder Jordan Paroubeck, and a competitive balance draft pick. Of course, that deal also included a whole lot of financial shuffling — Melvin Upton to the Pads, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin to the Braves — that left San Diego with more than $20MM in additional obligations.
That largely explains the differences in the returns, but there’s an argument to be made that Preller did quite well in the overall calculus (while also getting a season of Kimbrel in the 9th inning). After all, the group of players in tonight’s trade could be special.
Margot is arguably the headliner. The 21-year-old now figures to be the Friars’ long-term center fielder and isn’t terribly far away from commanding a shot in the majors. His power is still developing, but Margot has shown the ability to tally in the double digits over a full season (2014) and swiped 39 bags last year. He struck out only 51 times in 480 plate appearances last year, slashing a solid .276/.324/.419 split between High-A and Double-A.
Guerra, too, is a major piece. As Baseball America’s Josh Norris writes, he’s an outstanding defender who showed surprising power last season, which significantly raised his prospect stock. While it’s far from certain that he’ll remain a 15-homer threat, and he’s somewhat strikeout-prone, the 20-year-old nevertheless has immense promise.
The other two pieces in this deal are hardly throw-ins. Asuaje is already 24, and doesn’t have outstanding physical tools or outstanding power or speed, per MLB.com. But he’s shown a very promising bat and certainly seems on course to become a contributor in the majors.
Then, there’s the 18-year-old Allen, who was only able to be dealt because of the rule changes that occurred after last year’s Trea Turner deal. Taken in the eighth round of this summer’s draft and inked to an above-slot bonus, the southpaw is said to have a fair bit of polish for his age to go with an increasingly impressive arsenal.
It remains to be seen, of course, how the Pads move forward after parting with two most established relievers. This was a pure prospect move, as none of the four acquired youngsters figure to be ready in 2016. Notably, though, the two early-offseason trades have opened just under $18.5MM in payroll that otherwise would have been tied up in the pen. That’s a huge amount of additional space to work with for a team that only cracked $100MM in Opening Day payroll last year, and certainly opens up the possibility of more significant free agent involvement.
In large part, one’s assessment of the deal depends upon how one feels about reliever valuation. Kimbrel is obviously capable of delivering huge value from the back of the pen, but he’s only throwing a third or less of the innings of a starter. As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs recently discussed, there could be some value that WAR is missing in weighing elite pen arms. Kimbrel has been a two-to-three win annual pitcher for most of his career, though he’s separated from the top end of that range by a few years. As you start to slide that number up, he looks more and more like an upper-middle rotation starter in terms of overall value. It’s an open and fascinating question — and one that Dombrowski, at least, already appears to have answered.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the trade of Kimbrel on Twitter. The return was reported by Josh Norris of Baseball America (Twitter links), Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter), and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted the salary details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
TheMichigan
No way. More details… JBJ?
Kolukonu
As a Yankees fan….. damn.
Good move for Boston, providing they didn’t sell the farm to get him. That will definitely improve their bullpen. I wonder if it was something like Bradley Jr. for Kimbrel?
mike156
Ditto–they probably gave up spare parts in a salary dump.
stl_cards16 2
Haha. Nope. Overpay
johanstrous
You wish but not true. Winner = Padres.
kent814
Oh plz be bradley jr we need a true cf and that would help with defense so much he could roam CF for years
kent814
Plz be bradley jr
johanstrous
Nope, they gave away the guy who everybody wanted to replace JBJ plus additional pieces and took on almost $12M
donniebaseball
Absolutely not enough of a return for kimbrel
donniebaseball
I was referring to Jackie Bradley of course, not the actual return
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Yep. They got him. Because they were actually willing to give up decent prospects to get him, not just some A-ball shortstop.
Paddy
Damn u Dombrowski and double Damn you AJ, dangled him in front of us the entire month of July and in the final hrs decided to pull him back. As a Yankee fan I only hope he adds another run to his ERA like he did last yr and that his fly ball rate and line drive rate continues to skyrocket! After the worst year of his career I can only imagine his struggles going forward since he won’t be pitching against some of the worst teams in all of baseball like the NL east his whole career up til last yr and the lowly NL west this past year. Those Boston fans are gonna eat him alive if he starts the year how he finished this year!
CubanRaftRider
He’ll be better than you’re Andrew Miller who fell apart after being drafted in the first round, and the Red Sox acquired him and turned him into the guy he proved to be for them for 2+ years, Kimbrel will be leading the AL in saves for years to come for the Red Sox.
formerlyz
I feel like this could potentially surprise some of us…..(obvious)
jakesaub
I see your Aroldis Chapman and I raise you one Craig Kimbrel.
Stonehands
Could you imagine if Boston added Chapman too? Who would need starters when you can shut the game down after the 5th inning?
jljr222
Was hoping the Yankees would try to get him again, but we still have Miller. I could have sworn that Chapman would be going to the Red Sox though. Maybe he’s going to the Astros instead?
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
I don’t think anyone is interested in trading for Chapman. Yes he’s great but overpaying for a closer with 1 year left on his contract is never a good idea.
ianthomasmalone
Melvin Upton Jr. better not be coming with him.
mj-2
Lol
double
He’s Kimbrel’s travel buddy
mmlotto0707
Lol
mmlotto0707
More pressure on yanks o get chapman
MB923
They already have one of the best backends in baseball with Betances/Miller
I also don’t understand why every move the Red Sox make is pressure on the Yankees
1- The Red Sox have come in last place in back to back years (I don’t think they will next year though)
2- There are 3 other teams in the division
Fun fact – Every team in the AL East has won the division at least once since 2010
Paddy
Here’s a fun fact for you: you obviously don’t comprehend even in the slightest that NY/Boston is the biggest rivalry in all of professional sports. Hence the need to counter each others moves u dolt!
MB923
It WAS the biggest rivalry. It certainly has died down over the years. Heck, Yankees/Sox tickets at YS were being sold for as little as $10
Wrian Washman
Not really the Yankees don’t NEED Kimbrel or Chapman like the Bosox did. If they go the FA route to some bp help I think it’s Tony Sipp.
cxcx
They sort of have enough lefties in the pen, they sure could use another righty though.
Wrian Washman
Sipp can retire lefties and righties and is arguably the second best option behind O’day
nicdore33
Yessssiirrr ! Jbj gonna be in the return I think..
cardfan2011
Lol so we go from Chapman to Kimbrel eh? 🙂
Ken M.
Seeing as all that was needed was Mateo from the Yankees… maybe Guerra?
jljr222
There was more in the Yankees offer during the trade deadline. It’s just that Mateo was the headliner that was known apparently.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
From what I heard it was just Mateo for Kimbrel and Gyorko (Gyorko is a negative piece but his value is trending upwards as he has improved since returning from a demotion to AAA).
MB923
Wow.
MeowMeow
I’ve had too many drinks at a BU bar to know if I’m excited about Kimbrel or upset about losing Margot for a reliever. Please advise.
Phillies2017
You should be thrilled. Imagine Kimbrel as a #2 starter in value. You guys made out great.
start_wearing_purple
Be thrilled. We had the worst pen in the league last year and we got one of the best relievers. Losing Margot and then some is worth the price tag.
MeowMeow
Okay, you’re a reliable Sox fan commenter so I’m going to trust your judgment until I can have some of my own
adyo4552
karkat, for what its worth ive been a sox fan my entire life and think this deal was great. you dont get talent without giving up talent, but the sox addressed a big need with at least 3 years of control. margot was promising and so was guerra but cmon. its fockin craig kimbrel.
start_wearing_purple
Agreed 100%
jljr222
Looks like this might be a much bigger trade, Passan saying Tyson Ross has been discussed too.
kent814
Oh for fudge sake
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
No thanks, I’m good.
nicdore33
Margot and Allen are in the return for now
MB923
Logan Allen (who?) to San Diego.
MB923
Margot (now him I know) and Carlos Asuaje to SD too
mike156
I don’t see why the Yankees would spend big in prospects to bring in another late inning arm. Miller and Betances were just fine last year. That being said, I never like to see the Red Sox grow stronger. They have developed a strange pattern the last few years of winning World Series and then collapsing, then winning again. This could be an up-year.
bruinsfan94 2
That literally happened once. Its not a pattern. They won in 04 and were good non stop through 2011 then an off year then world series. Zero pattern.
MB923
He said the last few years. He’s not dating back to 04.
bruinsfan94 2
What? He said they have a pattern to win the world series then callapsing. They won in 13 then had two bad years. Theres literally no pattern to be found.
R.D.
I don’t think alway winning the series was implied here.
Either way the Red Sox have an awesome young core right now, Yankees fans should be scared even with their own youth movement.
Wrian Washman
Not scared at all 🙂
MB923
Lol. Again. There are 3 other teams in the division. Every team in the division has won it since 2010.
Funny to see Sox fans do smack talking after back to back seasons in last place
mike156
Thank you, MB923. I did say “the last few years…”
bruinsfan94 2
How does that change anything?? What is so hard to understand about a pattern? Lets look from 2010 on.
2010 89-73
2011 90-72
2012 69-93
2013 97-65
2014 71-91
2015 78-84
Your exact words ” They have developed a strange pattern the last few years of winning World Series and then collapsing, then winning again” They have not had had a winning season after 2013. There is no pattern and what you said makes zero sense.
MB923
He specifically said a strange pattern and it’s true. I can bet Nobody predicted the Red Sox seasons correctly in the last 5 years
Predictions for the Boston Red Sox preseason around baseball:
2011 – The 1927 Yankees toughest challenge (look it up)
2012- New manager in Bobby V should help them overcome last September collapse
2013 – Another new manager to take over a mediocre team, likely to finish in last
2014 – Defending world champs should compete again
2015 – AL East champs, with a great chance of even winning the WS.
The Red Sox last 5 seasons have gone in the completely opposite direction then what was predicted going into the season
That my friend, is a very strange pattern. He was mistaken on one piece, that they won again after the WS. That’s not his point.
bruinsfan94 2
So beside the fact that he was mistaken on the most important part he’s right? Fair enough..I agree with what your saying pretty much beside the fact that the 2011 were really good most of the year, but thats not what he was saying. Why defend someone who wasn;t clear with what he was saying and won’t even make it clear?
mike156
give it a rest, Bruinsfan.
bruinsfan94 2
How about you defend your argument yourself instead of letting someone else? Then we can give it a rest?
mike156
If yo are just going to give thumbs down to everything you disagree with because you are a Red Sox fan, what’s the point? The fact is that the Red Sox, over the last few years, have had an arc that is very unusual in baseball history. Not too many have had the sharp ups and downs–except for the few that deliberately dismantled, like the powerhouse Philadelphia Athletic teams, and the Marlins. The Red Sox didn’t go that way–they just underperformed in their down years.
jakesaub
If this is all just for Kimbrel… bring back Cherington.
donniebaseball
There may be more, but usually you have to give talent to get talent. Nobody was going to trade one of the best closers in the game for scraps
Steve_in_MA
True, but I think we overpaid a little. I’d have probably said you can have Marrero, but not Guerra. Guerra is a very important secondary piece, a BA top 100 prospect and young. I would have held out to keep him so he can be used in the trade for a front-line starter. We definitely needed to make a deal for bullpen help, and all the other pieces, I think we should be willing to sacrifice for Kimbrel.
MB923
Margot just hit a HR in the DR. What a coincidence.
start_wearing_purple
Guess he liked the idea of moving to sunny California.
BaseballisLife
He is from the DR so San Diego resembles it far more than Boston. ha ha
BaseballisLife
He is also hitting .220/.279 with 15 SO in 59 AB. He is struggling against quality pitchers right now.
mrnatewalter
Is it just me, or does it seem like San Diego gets more in return from what they gave up to get Kimbrel last Spring?
Seems like a strong trade for them.
double
Last spring they had to take Upton. That likely depressed what they gave up.
BaseballisLife
The Padres gave up a major league starting position player and their number one prospect who was a MLB ready starting pitcher plus Paroubeck, a 1st round (#41) draft pick, and a nice size chunk of their International Free Agent slot money while taking on $46 million in payroll for Melvin Upton. Since there are no immediate impact prospects in this trade, Guerra may be later & Margot is not an impact player, I would say they gave up more to get Kimbrel than they got now.
chicubbies1
Happy. I know earlier in the year and the first few days after the Cubs season ended there were rumors the cubs were trying to trade for both Tyson Ross and Kimbrel. Neither of those two get me going. Ross because he walks EVERYBODY and Kimbrel because they already have equally good Rondon who costs 1/4 of what Kimbrel does. I just can’t see any real reason or vindication for paying a reliever $12+ mil annually for the next 3 years. If he does good over those next 3 years his price is going to skyrocket and whoever pays what will likely be near $20 mil for a closer will deserve a nice smack in the back of the head. I’ll take the $3.6M (estimate he’ll get through arbitration) Rondon and his 1.67 ERA and 30 for 34 in save opportunities over Kimbrel’s 2.58 ERA and 39 for 43 in save opportunities. Bottom line, this Cub fan is breathing a sigh of relief knowing for sure the Cubs won’t trade for Kimbrel.
Wrian Washman
Want a cookie?
cxcx
What does the near $20m he will supposedly pull down per year on his next contract have to do with trading for him while he has three years left on his current deal at $12M or whatever per?
jedihoyer
reliever era does not matter. 1 outing can spike it a whole run. kimbrel is clearly better than rondon. rondon lost the closer job last year and as a cubs fan you should know this. rondon is very good but not as good as kimbrel. and moving rondon to the 8th and strop to the 7th with kimbrel closing would have given them a royals like bullpen.
BlueSkyLA
Wow, if I was a Pads fan I’d sure feel like I’d been given the old bait and switch.
kent814
No id give matt wisler paroubeck and 15 mil for 3 yrs of budget for the return we got im happy with it plus quackenbush is more than capable of tking over
BaseballisLife
Margot is not the player Maybin is and you gave also up Maybin and Intl FA slot money to get Kimbrel. Quack is a nice setup guy, but he simply has not shown he has either the strike out pitch nor the command to be a closer in the majors. He is not a stopper.
rick5ful
Goes to show how little the Braves know how to make good trades.
wb89
The only reason the Braves didn’t get more from the Padres is they included MU Jr in the deal. Without the salary dump, Atl gets Fried and probably Renfroe or Hedges. Learn the entire dynamic before making unintelligent comments
mcase7187
There better be more to give up a pp like Margot for a closer that has pitched in only pitcher friendly parks
Bob Smiley
Great trade for the Padres. Power bat at SS and a OF that can flat out hit..not to mention another that can play 2b.ss and 3b and has a great stick..and a Pitcher. i like it…
redsfanman
They seemingly got a couple of low OBP guys with negligible power. ‘Flat out hit’? Ehhhhh… they got lottery tickets, guys with the raw skill to possibly hit someday.
Bob Smiley
lol. go look at Margot. he does not strike out…he can flat out hit
redsfanman
Margot hit .271. He doesn’t strike out, but he doesn’t walk much either. He can flat out hit, but so far he isn’t a big OBP guy. From what I read he’s a good defensive CF who might steal a few bases, but doesn’t reach base enough to be a leadoff hitter. It seems like a lot of people think Margot is overrated.
Benintendi flat out hits, and he was seemingly unavailable for a trade as a result.
Stonehands
Margot is not overrated. Most reports I have read think he can hit 15ish HRs and 20+ steals a season if he reaches his ceiling. He has the plate awareness and compact swing to be able to hit .280-.290 with a respectable OBP. Overall, he can be a very good CF if he reaches his ceiling, one I would take over both JBJ and Castillo, FWIW
Stonehands
Have you ever seen Guerra or Margot play. Guerra is one hell of a defender with decent pop for a SS, and Margot is a 5 tool talent, his best of which is hitting.
adyo4552
Im confident both teams will benefit from this deal. lets just hope Kimbrel doesnt become Hanrahan or Bailey… any injury history for kimbrel?
BaseballisLife
Margot is a 3 tool talent. He can hit for average, plays good defense and has a strong arm. He has below average power and will never be good base stealing threat. Figure he will be that good defensive CF that hits .260-.270 with 5-6 Hr and 14-15 SB. Valuable? Yes. An impact player? Not by a long shot. Guerra on the other hand is an exceptional defensive player with power and a short, compact swing. He is the best of the bunch by far.
mwk89
quite the price (even when considering the control that comes with kimbrel)
Tko11
That’s a lot…they must be regretting not resigning miller last year.
jljr222
Not going to lie, for that return…I kind of want to see what the Yankees could get for Miller lol.
stl_cards16 2
I’m sure a lot of teams are calling the Red Sox to see if they need another closer after that overpay.
jedihoyer
scary what they gave up for a contract that isn’t that great. marginal +EV on his contract, granted for an elite closer. the prospects are all at least a year away so higher bust chance but still.
Wrian Washman
Not nearly as much as this, also I wouldn’t entertain the idea of trading Miller unless they sign oday or trade for chapman
Monkey’s Uncle
Whoa… that’s a whole lot of good prospects to give up for a closer.
mrnatewalter
Dombrowski finally gets an incredible closer….. in Boston. Poor Tigers fans.
stymeedone
Us long suffering Tiger fans! Actually, Detroit never had that type of system to deal that much to get an actual closer.
donniebaseball
I’ll take 4 straight division titles any day, even if our bullpen never was any good
Kevin 23
Really? Your 4 straight division titles are meaningless.
tuner49
Not to a real fan who loves to watch every game and see your team win and be successful. You have 162 possible chances to be successful, with each game as fun as any other. Getting to the post season is just your reward for a good season.
tuner49
Same old DD, you don’t hear a whisper- then BAMM!!
mookiessnarl
Like this deal for both sides. Guerra and Margot were both nice pieces that were blocked at the ML level. Allen and Asuaje also have the potential to be contributors at the ML level. And the Red Sox get their closer for the next three years.
Stonehands
I understand that both players were blocked, but this is still a ridiculous overpay for a closer, albeit the best at his position.
mookiessnarl
Minor overpay, but probably not huge. But I’m not as high on Margot as other people seem to be.
Stonehands
I’m not as upset about Margot, he is the cost of a decent deal. But the fact that we gave up a top 20 prospect and a top 50-60 prospect and a promising arm in Allen is just way too much. Asauje is a throw in and is not that valuable. I would have thought a decent deal could have been built around 1 of Margot or JBJ, Marrerro and a few high upside arms that are further away
mookiessnarl
Not sure why everyone is so desperate to trade JBJ. Then we’d just have to go out and acquire another outfielder. Both Guerra and Margot are in the B+ prospect category. They’re not the cream of the crop, but they may end up as solid major leaguers some day. You have to pay for elite, and 2 solid prospects isn’t too much for an elite closer in my mind.
Stonehands
I guess you are not as high on Margot as others, but he is probably the in the conversation of 3-5th best OF prospects left in the minors after Buxton and Judge. Margot, Meadows, Mazara are all interchangeable depending on what you like better, and I suppose Winker could be thrown into the conversation, but I don’t like Winker’s defense
adyo4552
Margot was at least 2 years out. This is DD’s way of saying he wants to win now. Hard not to like that, especially considering Bos has a very deep farm. Benintendi or a FA can fill the Margot vacancy in 2018.
Steve_in_MA
Benintendi is a corner infielder, corner outfielder. He’s not ever going to fill Margot’s shoes from a defensive perspective. Margot is a certified up-the-middle defensive stud. Benintendi probably has a superior power bat, but can’t even clean the spikes of Margot on defense.
mookiessnarl
False. Benintendi is a center fielder and has the athleticism to stick there. He’s not going to steal as many bases, but he’ll hit for a ton more power. I’d trade home runs for stolen bases any day of the week. Last year’s numbers for Margot were good but not great. Benintendi’s numbers at the same level were better. If he continues that at AA, he’ll pass Margot in no time.
Steve_in_MA
Again, look at what I said. He’s not equal on defense. He’s not going to stick in CF. That’s a pipe dream. That said, this guy could well be another David Ortiz at the plate. Certainly a corner guy. I value both types of players equally. More runs in total come from steals than HR’s, because there are just more of them. Whatever moves guys across the plate counts.
mookiessnarl
I like Benintendi better than Margot as I imagine most scouts will next season as well.
A'sfaninUK
I absolutely love Benintendi and think he could be in the bigs as soon as 2016 – if Boston want to make a huge deal he’s a headliner as is Moncada.
Kinda scary to think they could add two more all-stars in their prime if they wanted to if Benintendi and Moncada get thrown on the table. I mean they already have Betts, they don’t even really need Benintendi, whos only 2 years younger than him. I also think they could trade Betts for this reason.
Stonehands
Benintendi and Moncada are 2 players I would not move unless some other team decided to trade their star player for way under value. Betts has proven he can play all spots in the outfield, Castillo seemed to handle LF pretty well, but is oft injured, and I still don’t think Bradley can hit. If you ask me, Benintendi should be kept and can take over center while bumping Betts to RF
Steve_in_MA
Benintendi is probably coming to play 1B and bring his power bat. He’s not likely part of the outfield equation.
jedihoyer
lol no way he plays first. what a waste that would be. he can be a plus corner of’r no sense sticking him at first.
jrwhite21
Lol, benintendi is a stud…no way around that. Potential 5 tool player who could be a 20-20 player
Stonehands
As for JBJ, I still don’t think he can hit. If Boston can sell high on him while other teams think he still has a chance to hit, then I want to deal him for everything we can get.
mookiessnarl
I get that. I think he will hit as he has at every level up to this point. It’s all timing with him. And if he doesn’t Benintendi will be available in a season or a season and a half. Although I also think they should sign a veteran 4th outfielder type that can can play 100 games or so in case JBJ or Castillo falter.
Stonehands
With this move, it is clear that Boston wants to win in 2016, I am not comfortable playing the wait and see game on 2 questionable outfielders, either trade JBJ and go sign a mid-tier OF, or sign a Parra type who can play everyday when one gets injured and the other loses his bat
Steve_in_MA
Margot is in the BA top 25. He is the “cream of the crop.” Guerra is within the BA top 100, He is in the heart of the crop. I’d have given up Margot and Marrero, but not Guerra. Probably still would have gotten the deal done.
mookiessnarl
They’re not the cream of Boston’s crop. None of them would be ranked as A’s which are elite level sure thing types.
jrwhite21
Allen has a low ceiling due to a lack of a strong secondary offering. Projects as a 4/5 starter.
kingjenrry
He’s also only 18, though. Projecting an 18 year old is tough.
A'sfaninUK
lol, sooo many people forget this. Great post.
jedihoyer
them being blocked doesnt change their overall value though.
zoidbergman 2
Uh, couldn’t have gotten Ken Giles for that price?
Phillies2017
Giles has the potential to be the next Chapman, Kimbrel type guy. Between the velocity and control, hes a piece and a half. His price would come from hus controllability
A'sfaninUK
You don’t think that same package gets Giles? It definitely does.
jedihoyer
same package gets nola, of course it gets giles. probably giles and sweeney.
kingjenrry
He would surely have been cheaper.
bobbleheadguru
Lesson learned from Detroit. DD is smarter now.
stl_cards16 2
Or he actually has the prospects to not have to dumpster dive.
bobbleheadguru
Miggy, Fister, Anibal, Soria, Iglesias, Price… all traded for top prospects by DD. NONE were dumpster diving. The talking point that he did not have prospects to trade is a myth.
Steve_in_MA
He traded Peavy to get Iglesias. What are you talking about?
bobbleheadguru
Look it up, Peavy was NEVER on the Tigers Roster. Avisail Garcia was.
jedihoyer
main piece in the price deal was off the ml roster, smiley, granted their was a pretty sweet prospect added in ahmes or whatever it is
bobbleheadguru
Semantics. Symly was a young roster player instead of technically a prospect. Same difference. Home grown and under control.
Stonehands
I am a Red Sox fan, Glad we got Kimbrel but I hate this deal. We gave up way too much
adyo4552
Really? What would you think it would take to acquire an elite closer?
Stonehands
I could conceive a couple top 100 prospects and a couple lotto tickets, but arguably a top 20 prospect and a prospect who could go into the top 50 prospects on the next update? Hopefully less than that
kingjenrry
They could have, for sure, gotten Ken Giles for cheaper than that.
MB923
Do the Phillies want to even trade him?
kingjenrry
Why wouldn’t they? An outfield prospect with All-Star upside and high floor close to the Majors would be way more useful to them than a shutdown closer right now. And yeah, it seems like they’re looking to move him.
BaseballisLife
Margot is a 3 tool player. Hits for average, plays good defense and has a good arm. Below average power and not a blazing fast runner either even though he stool bases in the minors. He projects to hit .270/.310 with less than 10 hrs and 15 sb if he makes the majors. Those are not All Star numbers.
bradthebluefish
3yr/$24MM minimal to sign O’Day. That would’ve been a great closer with zero prospects to give up. Would’ve spent these prospects (and likely a few more prospects) on an Indians’ SP.
start_wearing_purple
For an elite closer, I’m a little surprised it didn’t cost Devers and Margot.
Stonehands
You can’t be serious?
start_wearing_purple
Okay, not really. But I can see this could have been much worse for the Sox. We gave up some good pieces from the farm but we got back something we really needed.
Stonehands
I’m not upset about the specific pieces that we gave up because we have so much depth, and it does fill a need, but this puts a pretty sizable dent in the firepower we have to make further acquisitions to the rotation.
start_wearing_purple
We still have some good names to give up on the market. Devers and Owens could both separately headline major trades. Shaw, Espinoza, Johnson, Marrero, and Travis could been seen as desirable additions.
Stonehands
Reports say Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza are not going anywhere, and I’d prefer not to deal Devers, which is why if a deal for JBJ, Owens, and whomever else can be done, so-be-it. Otherwise I would rather spend money and go the FA route
start_wearing_purple
Forgot about Espinoza… But also think about it this way. We can sign a top starter, we couldn’t have signed a top closer. If we had fixed the entire starting staff and even added a star reliever we still would have had a question mark with an aging closer.
Joe McMahon
Wow, that is a huge return.
dunkindonuts 2
That is a significant overpay for the right to pay Kimbrel at market rate for a couple years.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Only an overpay if the prospects pan out. I mean, really, it’s not like we gave him 80 million for four years before he threw a first pitch.
Besides, with the amount of prospects we have, there’s no way we can’t overpay. Teams will be demanding more and more and unless you give to get, players aren’t moving.
There’s no guarantee these prospects pan out either. Only about half of them actually pan out.
I’d rather give up prospects for one of the best, then give up prospects for a mediocre Andrelton Simmons. My only concern is Kimbrel’s 2015 record- his stats went up in nearly every category in a pitcher’s ballpark.
jrwhite21
Plus, they have the option for the QO when he becomes a free agent if he isn’t extended. And if they sign an ace by eligible for the QO this year, they get to rebuild the farm with the 12 pick
rct
“his stats went up in nearly every category in a pitcher’s ballpark.”
Similar K/9, BB/9. Just a little uptick in BABIP and a couple extra HR. I think he’ll be fine this year.
burnhardspringer
Wow! Preller turned an overhyped Wisler who had an awful season in Atlanta into two good propects in Margot and Guerra plus two other pieces. And he cleared money to fill other positions by trading Benoit and kimbrels salary.
He’s quickly restocking the farm with talent and will have 3 1st round picks and 5 picks before the 3rd round once upton and kennedy leave.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
The Rock Star GM is getting the band back together.
RedRooster
Forgot taking on Melvin Upton’s bloated contract
YourDaddy
Do you really think that Wisler was the main piece in that trade? Wisler was competing in the majors, not AA or lower like the prospects the Padres got for Kimbrel. Maybin also was a major league player that contributed a positive WAR. The 41st pick was used for Austin Riley who hit .304 with 12 home runs in 60 games in rookie ball. Paroubeck was flipped for a $279k International Free Agent bonus slot that was used give the Braves enough slot money to pick up Christian Pache. You also kind of forgot about the Padres taking on $50 million in salary for BJ Upton.
jedihoyer
rookie ball stats are quite frankly meaningless and not predicative of future performance at all. when he gets to full season you can start to include stats in to evaluations.
BaseballisLife
Rookie ball stats are far from meaningless. They give you a general understanding about how he played against that level of competition. What will give you a better idea of any players skill level is how they adjust to moving up in quality of competition. Riley stepped up from the GCL to the Appalachian league and did quite well. He is going to be a major league regular. He has tremendous power and his bat speed was far and away the best in the GCL. He has a Plus plus arm and decent footwork at the hot corner even though this was his first year playing there. He will be a plus defender. While he struck out a lot, over 25%, it was his first taste of pro ball and he also walked 12%. Its going to take 3-4 years, but he has all the skills and the demeanor to be a very good 3B for the Braves.
Jeff Todd
FWIW, the Padres didn’t take on that much salary. It was like 46 of Upton, offset by 24 of Maybin/Quentin. So, around 22.
smrtbusnisman04a
What a return for San Diego. I wonder what the Pirates could get for Melancon…
mrnatewalter
Probably not as much, since he’s FA eligible after this next season. Kimbrel has 3 more years of control.
Monkey’s Uncle
Very true… but as a Pirate fan, this deal sure makes the idea of trading Melancon much more appealingly possible.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Kimbrel > Melncon, so the return is far less in this way as well.
donniebaseball
bingo! the big difference here is the years of control. Also, didn’t melancon’s stuff (velocity?) declined last year? Not saying that he won’t be as good last year, just saying that it may add some questions.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Melancon is nowhere near the level Kimbrel is at. Just years ago Melancon was shipped out of the AL East for being ineffective. He’s an NL pitcher at best.
Kimbrel has yet to taste the AL too, which is concerning, but he’s at least started off at a more supreme level than Melancon has.
bucsfan456
except their numbers are nearly identical over the last couple seasons. Melancon has been as good if not better.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Career FIP of 1.72 and 2.87 is a BIG difference. Not so identical if you ask me. Even the last couple of seasons, we’re talking about a 2.13 FIP versus a 2.20 one. Even in Kimbrel’s “lackluster” season in 2015, he had the better FIP and more strikeouts in less innings. Kimbrel is the superior closer. His evidence of pitching to less contact than Melancon is there. It’s not even close.
mookiessnarl
FWIW #4 Margot, #6 Guerra, #13 Allen, #25 Asuaje in the system per Soxprospects who know the system very well. Very big return. Props to Preller. He did good.
kenster73
not to mention taking $30 million+ off the books
burnhardspringer
Guess people criticizing preller at the deadline look silly now. The Yankees wanted kimbrel and Gyork at half price for Mateo and others. Kimbrel alone got Margot Guerra top 100 prospects and top 30 in Margot plus other pieces. And gyorko seemed to have found his bat in the 2nd half.
yanks02026
Yankees were also willing to taking on gyorko contract which wasn’t cheap.
jedihoyer
gyorko took away value not added.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
So first Benoit and now Kimbrel. The bullpen is going to look different next year for sure.
YourDaddy
It was bad with them. How bad will it be without them?
BaseballisLife
At this point, its the worst in baseball. Preller has a lot of time to make some moves to shore it up, but it doesn’t look good right now.
danfromfreddybeach
Indeed, Preller did well. Kimbrel is a talent but the key to measuring such a trade is the amount of excess value in his contract. Surely the Sox could have gone out and paid for a good reliever on the open market without giving up what would be the #1 and #2 prospects for most clubs. Dombrowski has weakened his hand in dealing for an ace. Here’s hoping Kimbrel can make it in the AL East. A lot of other pitchers have suffered for such a move.
BaseballisLife
With the largest free agent crop of starting pitchers I have ever seen, I don’t think Dombrowski had any intention of trading for an #1 starter. If I had to bet on it, I would say he will go all in to pick up Price and Samardzija. An Ace and an inning eater.
swanhenge
Good trade…27 yo dominant closer, under control for decent $. Four good prospects gone, but Sox are in win-now mode.
Its nice to see them finally take the gamble and give away prospects. Worth the gamble, I think.
stymeedone
they didn’t exactly “give away” the prospects. Not a whole lot of closers as good as Kimbrel.
A'sfaninUK
Kimbrel is on a 3/35 deal – that’s a lot of money dedicated to a closer. Uehara’s only on $9M a year and did the same job.
jedihoyer
sure but the bullpen as a whole generally pitches more than one inning. they just lengthened their bullpen.
Beardedface Killah
Awesome trade!!
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Wow, Preller is at it again.
burnhardspringer
Hes anti preller. Selling prospects last year buying prospects now.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
It’s an oxymoron!
sak2229
THIS IS WAY TO MUCH,MAYBE HIS PAY AND 1 OR 2 PROSPECTS BUT CERTAINLY NOT 4 AND HIS WHOLE SALARY TOO.
redsox239
As a Redsox fan i’d say i’m happy. Margot, and Guerra are very good prospects, but ones we don’t need with X at SS, and all of our outfielders including Benintendi in the minors. Allen is in the low minors, and looks real good but we also have Espinoza still. The Carlos guy i’m not all that familiar with. Good trade, and we now have an elite closer. The only problem I have is if our package to trade for a SP is now weaker. Kinda wish we got Ross with Kimbrel.
mookiessnarl
After this trade, it’s still possible Dombrowski intends to make a trade for an Ace, but it may be more likely he’ll go after a free agent instead.
redsox239
And I think i’m alright with that…Price or Greinke are who I want, but I guess I could live with Cueto.
mookiessnarl
Price or Cueto as they don’t have draft pick compensation attached.
Stonehands
I could still see a trade and depending on the return, I’d be okay with it. If DD can find a match where we can ship out Owens and another SP not named Eduardo Rodriguez, along with a lesser prospect haul, that opens up the rotation spot for the ace and preserves the farm a bit.
kingjenrry
Owens and who else for what kind of “ace”? Who would you be looking to acquire with Owens+?
Stonehands
To be honest, the only semi-decent match I can see is Cleveland. Grabbing Carrasco for Owens, JBJ, and maybe Miley with Shaw or a mid-range prospect might get it done, but that is the only potential match I can see
A'sfaninUK
That’s an overpay for Carrasco though. Boston are better off with Owens in the rotation.
soxfan1
Wish the Red Sox has shipped out some salary too…
mookiessnarl
They’re lucky they didn’t end up with Melvin Upton as a throw in.
sak2229
GIVING 4 FOR 1 PLUS HIS SALARY,YEAH THEY MIGHT HAVE JUST WROTE THEM A CHECK FOR A MILLION DOLLARS.ITS A SUCKY DEAL
A'sfaninUK
So the Padres traded Jordan Paroubeck, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler and 2015 competitive balance round A pick for (rankings current for mlb.com) Boston’s #3 Margot, #6 Guerra, #23 Asuaje, #25 Allen? Love this deal for SD, only like it for Boston. Mostly love it for SD because they flipped not great players for better ones. Only like it for Boston because its 3 years of Kimbrel at $35M.
mookiessnarl
Also their #13 Logan Allen. But they got to keep Melvin Upton, so there’s that.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
“Had the opportunity” to keep Melvin Upton
A'sfaninUK
Where are you seeing Allen as #13? MLB.com has him at #25.
mookiessnarl
Soxprospects. MLB isn’t very good.
BaseballisLife
Neither is SoxProspects, but Baseball America is much closer to how the teams see it. They had Guerra at #5, Margot at #7, Allen at #12 and Asuaje outside the top 30.
jedihoyer
mlb.com is the worst prospect list site you can use.
Stonehands
Go to SoxProspects for a more accurate report on the prospects, Allenis a pretty damn good piece
dirtywater433
Allen is okay but still too far away to even be “projectable”
Stonehands
I understand that, but he really impressed me when I went to watch him the last couple times, so I have a bit of a soft spot for him
dirtywater433
They were the Sox excess prospects. They weren’t super prospects. Every prospect has bust potential in this deal. Neither hit for a high average or get on base a lot.
A'sfaninUK
But I got yelled at by RS homer posters who told me this would be a “haul” for Sonny Gray. Cool.
bruinsfan94 2
Nobody said Margot and Gurrea were getting Gray. That said this deal is probably a slight overpay but Margot had no place. Any deal for Gray would see Margot as probably the 2nd or 3rd player in a 5-6 player deal. Gray wont be moved though. Theres no reason unless someone comes around with a huge offer. Margot is legit but Gurrea is nothing great right now.
A'sfaninUK
Right, but me saying one or even both of Betts and Bogaerts had to be in the deal to keep Beane on the phone got the “you are absolutely insane” replies, which were very unfair especially now, seeing as the same Boston homer posters are now saying those guys they were proposing in a Gray aren’t worth anything. I was right to say that, because that is reality – Beane isn’t trading Gray unless Boston does something like that. But you are right, Gray’s not going anywhere because Boston and the Cubs won’t give him what he wants. He (rather, Forst) sold a little low once, they won’t do it again – especially on a guy on min wage.
Steve_in_MA
No, they weren’t unfair. X or Betts is an insane ask for a pitcher who has, at best, a +3.8 WAR. Both players have a much higher WAR than Gray does. We were talking about giving Beane: Moncada, Margot, Guerra and a throw in. That’s BA #’s 1, 25 and 76, plus a mid-level chip. That would be the best prospect package ever paid for a starting pitcher … ever.
jedihoyer
actually not really, u are over rating bogey. 372 babip is a little nuts. straight up for sonny it might be an overpay, but even adding a sean nolin or kendall gravemen makes it match up pretty well.
jedihoyer
i don’t think that’s true though. if the deal had e-rod and moncada as headliners billy is listening.
bruinsfan94 2
Because that would be absolutely insane. Betts and Bogaerts had more WAR and play everyday. You talk about the Red Sox fans but can’t you please stop talking Billy Beane and the As then? Do you have a little man crush? Nothing wrong with that…
dirtywater433
And I added a ton more to that deal. This deal was still considered a “haul” with everything being equal.
Ray Ray
It’s amazing that when the Sox had Margot he was going to be the next great HOF Red Sox outfielder, but now that he is traded he wasn’t a super prospect. Never seen that before from a Boston fan. *eye roll*
A'sfaninUK
Yeah Nomar was a bum the entire time and Papi was too in 2013 –oops they re-signed him so instead he’s a legend!
Boston has pretty much the most pathetic fanbase in the game. Love their org and how they work, but the way their media manipulates their homers is gross.
bruinsfan94 2
When you talk about a whole fan base like that do you know how stupid and arrogant that makes you look?
jmi1950
You left out that SD had to take Mel Upton 50MM for 3 yrs.
A'sfaninUK
and he had 1.6 fWAR which is valued at about $12M, so…I don’t hate him as much as everyone else does? He’s overpaid but he’s way better guy to have than Ryan Howard.
jmi1950
Mel Upton’s contract would be ok for the NYY, LAD or Sox but for SD it really hurts AJP’s flexibility
A'sfaninUK
Right, and he just fixed that by getting rid of Benoit and Kimbrel. That’s $43M right there.
ekim666
As far as I’m concerned the Red Sox got him for a steal
yanks02026
Lol
ekim666
They traded away positions that they have 2 other guys potentially to replace. The only player I would hate to see go is Margot. But they have plenty of depth in OF prospects. Not to mention that they’ve got betts Castillo and maybe Jackie Bradley as starters at the mlb level for x amount of years to come. Same with Xander. So to see prospects from those positions go is not bad.
dylangannon
Kimbrel to Red Sox for 4 farm players per Jon heyman
rmullig2
If this is what they have to give up for Kimbrel I can’t imagine what it would take to land an ace. They won’t have a farm system left if they make a deal for Sale or Gray.
dirtywater433
I think the Sox just told the work that the ace type isn’t available via trade or they would of saved their pieces to that deal. Look for the Sox to spend on a free agent top of the rotation arm.
donniebaseball
Nobody said acquiring an ace would be cheap, especially if they had significant control on their contract.
rmullig2
Wouldn’t it have been better to take this package, add a few pieces and get an ace? The way it is now they have to pay big $$$ for Cueto or Price. Unless they want to part with the #12 pick in the draft to sign one of the other front line guys like Grienke or Zimmerman.
start_wearing_purple
Gave away a haul but definitely worth it. A Uehara/Kimbrel 8-9 will be a solid end.
Stonehands
Boston still needs to add another arm. Tazawa got burnt out and pushing him to the 4th or 5th option should be the goal
start_wearing_purple
I’m still hoping they pick up O’Day. But still, a good start.
Ray Ray
Of course they have to have the lead going into the 8th inning for that to work. That might be a problem with a rotation full of #3-4 starters.
start_wearing_purple
As I already said, it’s a good start. If Dombrowski stops here and says this is all the upgrades they need it’s one thing. But if this is part of a larger plan then it’s a great start.
Steve_in_MA
Gotta sign O’Day. We must have a powerful pen with unquestioned ability to give us a scoreless last 3 innings.
Steve_in_MA
It wasn’t a problem for the entire second half of last season. Once the pitchers got in their grooves, we were fine.
dunkindonuts 2
The problem with this trade from the Red Sox’s perspective isn’t that they’re dealing from a surplus of prospects — that’s what they should be doing. The problem is that they should be using those chips to acquire someone who plays more than 60 innings per year. Also Kimbrel makes $11M next season, and $13M the year after that. He’s not a “value” pick-up.
adyo4552
Bullpen was a huge problem last year. Barring injury, they addressed a big void. Next stop, Startertown
start_wearing_purple
As much attention was paid to how bad the Sox starters were last year, the bullpen was even worse. According to fangraphs, the worst collective WAR of any team. So bringing in a new closer will mean Koji to the 8th and less pressure on Tazawa.
It’s definitely not the last move the Sox should make but it’s a much needed one if the Sox want to contend.
jmi1950
Half of the pitching problems was Hanley in left and Panda at 3d. Everyone thinks the pitching got better in Aug-Sept without taking into account the defense.
Phillies2017
AJP could have gotten so much more for Kimbrel. They still got Margot, which is all well and good and Guerra is a nice secondary piece but the rest are lottery tickets. Its Kimbrel, the most valuable reliever on the trade market due to cost certainty. Great move by Dombrowski.
start_wearing_purple
I think this was definitely a fair price. Margot isn’t exactly a blue chip prospect but a 20 year old already adapting to AA, I’d say he gets a top 50 prospect ranking ranking easily. As for the other 3, I’m less familiar with them but none are throw aways.
On paper, this looks to be a decent even sided deal even taking into account service time and money.
Jeff Hill 2
According MLB.com’s last update is in the top 25.
start_wearing_purple
Thank you, I was looking at last year rankings.
ilikebaseball 2
That’s a lot of “prospect” cash to give up for a reliever. Dombrowski gonna treat em like tickets at the carnival only thing left over will be the odd ticket or two that couldn’t be used without buying more tickets.
So the Padres basically traded Wisler, Paroubeck a draft pick and 18mil for Margot, Guera and a couple of long shots. Interesting trade on both sides of the board, be while before we know any winners with these Preller deals.
maxamillion
Dombrowski had a reputation for trading away prospects like candy at Halloween. The guy will gut the Sox farm system if you let him. All because Henry would not re-sign guys like Lester and Miller.
donniebaseball
Dombrowski kept the best prospects while trading the others for useful players. It’s what any good GM does. Know who to keep, who to trade.
bruinsfan94 2
We got Erod for Miller. Margot and Gurrea were blocked to hell and back.
gobraves46
Still think JBJ should have been in the deal, Padres need lefty bats. Maybe now they cleared up some payroll to get one via free agency. Astrubal Cabrera could be a fit.
mookiessnarl
I think the nature of this deal indicated that the Padres are in rebuilding mode. JBJ wouldn’t have done much for them if they don’t intend to field a competitive team for the next three or so years. It’s hardly necessary to add left handed bats to a team that isn’t in contention.
RedRooster
Don’t think this signals a rebuild when the Padres really didn’t need Kimbrel or Benoit and were able to sell high on both.
mookiessnarl
It’s a pretty hard sell to say the team didn’t need its closer or setup man. Elite bullpens are hard to come by. If your theory is the Pads already had one, then why would they trade it for prospects at least two years out? If they were planning on competing next year, and had some sort of magical bullpen surplus, then they would have traded it for ML ready players. A shortstop comes to mind.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Over the years the Padres have assembled great bullpens out of scraps, nobodies and castoffs (think Dale Thayer). They never needed to trade for Kimbrel in the first place. This will allow us to get an extended look at Quack, Vincent, Edwards and Maurer (unless they move him to the rotation). Besides, Preller can still look to the free agent market for more relievers.
YourDaddy
Thayer had 8 saves for the Padres and 8 blown saves. He was pressed into that role because of injuries, not merit. You railed against him last season on the Padres board. You also have expressed quite the hatred for Vincent over the past year. Those are the guys you are using as an example of who will replace one of the best relievers/closers in baseball?
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
You must not have been paying attention. I have always been a Thayer fan. And my only criticism of Vincent is how bad his bad outings are. He seems to either pitch a perfect inning or get absolutely clobbered, there’s really no in between.
donniebaseball
Exactly… They are trying to be opportunistic
jedihoyer
lol after those 2 they have no bullpen. maurer is a starter this year. they are definitely rebuilding. highly doubt they reallocate that money this year.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Can I get a link to a credible source that says Maurer will be used out of the rotation next year?
YourDaddy
3 interviews with Preller and other FO in last month ok for you? Going to have to google it since you cant post links here.
Doug
Smart for Dombrowski to cash in the vastly overhyped prospects for the BoSox. Margot, the supposed #23 prospect in MLB hit .271 with 3 HR’s at AA.
maxamillion
Do you think Bogaerts, Betts, or Swihart are overrated? Dombroski overpaid by a lot.
mookiessnarl
I don’t think he’s quite a Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart level, but he was a nice prospect. You have to give to get.
maxamillion
I don’t think Margot is quite on that level. My point was addressing the idea that the Sox prospects are overrated. I believe DD gave up too much for a pitcher who will roughly give you 60 innings during the regular season.
kingjenrry
Could be. But if he winds up their Wade Davis, it was worth it.
mookiessnarl
The bullpen was horrendous last season. Worse than the starting pitching could have even dreamed of being. And it’s not just 60 innings. Craig Breslow gave 60 innings last season. It’s 60 high leverage innings. 60 very important innings where you need to maintain a lead.
maxamillion
It won’t be 60 high leverage innings. Closers pitch games with 3 run leads and other games where games are decided but they need to get work in.
Plus how many teams change closers from year to year? Teams identify pitchers who can come and close every year without paying a king’s ransom. The Sox would have been better off trading for Benoit. The cost was a lot cheaper in prospects and salary. That would allow you to still trade Margot and Guerra for a starter instead of giving up more propsects. Of course Dombrowski doesn’t seem to care that much about prospects so I don’t know if it will matter much in the end.
mookiessnarl
Sox still have plenty of depth in the minors. And they have this newfangled thing called free agency where one can acquire starting pitching. Elite relief arms aren’t really available on the free agent market this year. O’Day is nice, but he’s never been a closer. And there’s the part where Kimbrel is only the beginning. The Sox need at least one more piece for their pen. This trade will benefit both teams. Considering Benoit the same as Kimbrel is interesting. The stats don’t really back it up though.
mookiessnarl
As a 20 year old in 64 games, who was one of the younger players in the league. He also stole 19 bases. It’s okay to trade a quality prospect for a quality player. No need to disparage the prospect.
bruinsfan94 2
That is idiotic.Everything in you comment.
donniebaseball
There’s no need for that here.
bruinsfan94 2
I get it. He can talk junk on the internet but I can’t.
22222pete
Both Margots and Guerra are prospects at positions that are blocked by the Red Sox. DD simply traded from a surplus to fulfill a big hole that could not be filled by free agency. Kimbrels value to the Red Sox was perhaps higher than it would have been to other teams, so the Red Sox were willing to pay a higher price.
The Yankees despite 2 of the best RP’ers in baseball had offered Mateo and some additional lesser prospects that was rejected at the deadline, so the Red Sox knew they needed to go higher than that, and they did.
jmi1950
The Sox have 38 players on the 40 man roster. Three of the traded players would have been exposed to the Rule 5 draft if not added by Nov 20. and they still have several more that they are likely to lose if not protected, The curse of a deep farm.
Jeff Hill 2
No they weren’t…not all guys not on the 40 man roster are eligible for the rule 5 draft. Guy is eligible for draft after fifth upcoming rule 5 draft and he was signed before he was 18. But if he was 19 or older after the 4th upcoming rule 5 draft they are then eligible. No one traded in this trade was rule 5 eligible.
mookiessnarl
Margot was coming up on being eligible this year.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Margot would be eligible this year, Guerra next year.
jedihoyer
margot is rule 5 this year, not that it matters, his defense is plus allowing him to be a 4th of even if his bat wasn’t ready so its an easy add. still would only be called up in case of an emergency but wouldn’t embarrass himself being in the bigs.
detroit88
Good old DD. Say goodbye to the farm Boston. Why couldnt he bring a bullpen to Detroit
YourDaddy
The rebuild is just starting. More trades to come for Padres. Still got a few million more to clear off the payroll. Norris is next to go.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Nopenopenope
gopads
Hedges will be the next Gold Glove catcher in the NL, trading Norris and having a left handed bat backing up Hedges would be great
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Nah, Hedges doesn’t hit well enough to win a Gold Glove
BaseballisLife
Hedges certainly has the defensive tools and game calling ability to hold down the job. I’m not convinced that he can hit for enough average to push Norris out of a full time job. If Ross is still a Padre in 2016, Hedges will undoubtedly be his full time catcher. Shields stayed in SD in the off season and has been working out with Hedges at Petco, so you may also see him using Hedges more in 2016 as well. If he can hit at least the league average for a catcher of .238 or above he will make Norris expendable. The rest of his skills are that good.
mwk89
Thinking more about it, while a high price for a RP, I think a lot of people dont realize how good Kimbrel truly is
petrie000
we do… we just also realize how completely over-rated the entire position of closer is as well. a cursory glance over the closers on this years playoff teams is proof of how easy it is to win with merely a good closer.
Kimbrel might be the best closer ever statistically, and the Sox still got fleeced. Now it’s gonna be even harder for them to upgrade that shoddy rotation, and a Closer can only save a game the team’s already winning.
maxamillion
Thank you…the Giants won their world series with multiple guys as closer. The Red Sox run a couple of years ago came with Uehara taking over the closer role mid season. Teams change around their closers all the time. It makes no sense to trade that much or a closer. If they were giving up these prospects for a starter, it would make more sense. This is such an old school way of thinking.
Ray Ray
The happiest person after AJ Preller has got to be Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty. If this was the price for Kimbrel, he might get a lot more for Chapman now.
mookiessnarl
3 years of control vs one year. Can’t see Chapman netting nearly as much, unless he’s willing to negotiate an extension.
A'sfaninUK
Agreed, if anything this drives up Miller’s market more than anything, as he’s cheaper and arguably as good as Kimbrel.
mookiessnarl
Sure, but I can’t see any logical reason for the Yankees to move him.
bruinsfan94 2
Miller is older and has a history. Also why would the Yankees sell?
start_wearing_purple
Kimbrel had more trade value than Chapman. With Chapman off the market the Reds may have lost a competitor but probably also lost a trading partner. So the market for Chapman has pretty much been set now.
groogas 2
Another ski mask heist by the Red Sox. Give up nothing, get a proven major leaguer. Other teams suckered in by baseball beat reporters with a clear bias toward all things Boston.
Bob Sacamano 310
What can David Robertson fetch in a deal?
A'sfaninUK
Miller is 3/27 vs Kimbrel’s 3/35, so, a little more than this if you buy Miller being as good a closer as Kimbrel, which many might?
Chapman might be the bargain out of the 3, which I’d never think I’d say.
jedihoyer
david robertson of the white sox changed his name to miller?
A'sfaninUK
Wow, fangraphs just said Margot for Kimbrel straight up would have been a fair deal.
mookiessnarl
They’re notoriously weird on trade valuations. Look at their Red Sox suggestions for Cole Hamels. One was Johnson, Barnes and Cecchini. The other was Margot and Devers with the Phillies kicking in $20 million.
jedihoyer
kimbrel isn’t really a deal. might get 25 mil in surplus at most. margot can give u over 100 mil if things break right. i think its a little lite but guerra for sure makes this a win for the pads. the old addage you can get bullpen for cheap is right. pedro strop and arrietta for scott feldman, hector rondon was a rule 5 pick. the last 2 years rondon and strop have put up very similar numbers to kimbrel( kimbrel is better but at that price his extra value to them is extremely marginal)
bruinsfan94 2
Fangraphs is bizarre on trade ideas sometimes.I think it was an overpay but not by that much.
YourDaddy
Cameron said that, not Fangraphs. He hates closers and relievers in general and says they don’t matter. He should talk to the World Series champs and ask them how valuable it is to have a lights out pen.
ccsilvia
I guess it’s better than trading for Chapman, who’s up in a year. But damn, does a last place team two years running need to part with two of their top 10 prospects for a closer, a luxury, when they’ve already got one bought and sold at 9M next year?
onlyringsmatter
Those prospects were blocked and plus all of their elite prospects are still in the system
bk awesome
Margot is the really good prospect in the deal the rest is just not great and Margot and Kimbeel don’t even fit in there new homes
bruinsfan94 2
Gureea is also a top 100 prospect. Allen is nice. The Red Sox needed a real closer. Their guy is 41. Margot is an athletic top OF prospect. How does he not fit in? He’s a year away.
YourDaddy
Padres have a guy in CF for 2 more years in BJ Upton and Jankowski is a speed/defense type CF too. Margot is not really a fit unless he somehow develops plus power.
Ken M.
What could the Yankees get for Miller? He’s coming off another injured season, one with elbow problems. Has he ever made it through a season without hitting the DL?
aprogie
Gotta remember that after his contract ends we can give him a QO(if those things still exist) so I’m sure that was also value that San Diego gave up
Nate 16
This is a good baseball trade, I like it for both sides, now the Red Sox just need to have a lead going into the 8th inning
cmb1974
Nice pick up!
ckdexterhaven
Wish the number of prospects had been lower. It would be fascinating to know, if DD refused to include the ‘last’ piece (presumably, Allen), does Preller walk away from the deal? Still would have been a nice haul for the Padres. And losing three guys would make the deal more palatable for sox fans and media. Whatever.
None of those prospects is going to reach Kimbrel’s level. Ever. If we had all of them for twice as long as Kimbrel, their impact is still not likely to have made a difference, considering our other options.
Losing Margo was the biggest hit, potential-wise, but consider it this way: we have other OFs in better positions to contribute, and we can very easily draft a kid of equal talent with the 12th pick next year, but in a position of need instead of redundancy. The farm is still stocked, but will be stocked in more appropriate positions.
The plan, all along, was to trade for relief and to buy starting pitching. If DD doesn’t get an ace out of free agency, THEN the Kimbrel deal would have been bad. If we do get a top FA, it’s all good. Does it matter which route we took?
CubanRaftRider
Sox gave up way too much to acquire three more controllable years of Kimbrel; Margot is top 25 prospect with gold glove potential, while Logan was starting to look like a diamond in the rough pick from the 2015 draft, and Guerra has an intriguing ceiling for a defensive minded shortstop, Kimbrel is good, not that good.
YourDaddy
According to the Globe and SoxProspects, Guerra is a better prospect than Margot. Guess it depends on who you talk to. Defense and speed players are rarely top 25. I don’t see him being any more valuable than Renfroe for the Padres. Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball over the past 3 seasons. He is that good and you pay for the best.
BaseballisLife
I would have to agree with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Guerra is the better of the two prospects.
Margot is not an impact prospect because has below average power. He projects to play plus defense in CF and hit above average for average. He could be a starter in the majors for a long time, but not an All Star type player. The Padres Jankowski is already a better fielder and has much better speed. Melvin Upton is cemented in CF for the foreseeable future because of his contract, so Margot is again buried in depth. He could be a nice piece in a future trade.
Guerra has the tools to be an All Star. In his first year of full season ball, he hit a respectable .279 with 15 HR, 41 XBH and a .329 OBP (League average was .256/.325), more than holding his own against older competition. He is an exceptional defender at shortstop, a position he has both the instincts, footwork and arm to stick at in the majors, and he also brings power to a position where those with power and the ability to play plus defense are All Stars. The only thing he lacks is blazing baserunning speed. If he can make the adjustments to lower his strike out rate just a little, he could be a fixture for the Padres starting in 2019 or possibly even sooner.
Keep an eye on Allen. I liked what I saw from him at IMG better than Nix, who the Padres took in the 3rd round this past June. He has a 92-93 mph fastball that can touch 95 and a compact, repeatable delivery and his build points to even more velocity as he fills out. His changeup will probably rate as the best in the Padres system and he will still be only 18 when the 2016 Tin Caps season starts. If he stays injury free, he could be the pickup of the trade. I would project him as a #3 starter, possibly #2 if his velocity increases a tick or two.
All in all the Padres got a nice haul for Kimbrel, although none of these guys will help them contend before Kemp and Shields, their big two additions left from 2015, are gone.