Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers, and we saw a record 20 players receive them. There were only nine recipients in 2012-13, followed by 13 the next year and a dozen last winter. This winter’s slate of free agents has long been considered robust, but that’s still a remarkable increase in the use of the QO.
Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order)
- Brett Anderson, SP (Dodgers)
- Wei-Yin Chen, SP (Orioles)
- Chris Davis, 1B (Orioles)
- Ian Desmond, SS (Nationals)
- Marco Estrada, SP (Blue Jays)
- Dexter Fowler, OF (Cubs)
- Yovani Gallardo, SP (Rangers)
- Alex Gordon, OF (Royals)
- Zack Greinke, SP (Dodgers)
- Jason Heyward, OF (Cardinals)
- Hisashi Iwakuma, SP (Mariners)
- Howie Kendrick, 2B (Dodgers)
- Ian Kennedy, SP (Padres)
- John Lackey, SP (Cardinals)
- Daniel Murphy, 2B/3B (Mets)
- Colby Rasmus, OF (Astros)
- Jeff Samardzija, SP (White Sox)
- Justin Upton, OF (Padres)
- Matt Wieters, C (Orioles)
- Jordan Zimmermann, SP (Nationals)
The rules regarding the qualifying offer are set forth in full detail right here. In brief, though, should these players reject the offer and sign with a new team, their former team will stand to receive a “sandwich” round draft pick as compensation. Those new teams, in turn, will have to forfeit their top unprotected draft pick (or picks, if they sign multiple QO-rejecting players). If a player rejects a QO but ultimately re-signs with the same team, no draft pick shuffling occurs.
The net result is that players who reject qualifying offers enter the market with the requirement of draft compensation weighing them down. The players listed above will now have one week to decide whether or not to accept the QO and play on a one-year deal worth $15.8MM, or instead to or reject the offer in search of a larger guarantee on the open market.
The word “guarantee” is the key to that sentiment: while many will focus on whether or not the players can top that average annual value on the free agent market, more often than not, a player is concerned primarily with maximizing the amount of money he can earn over his prime seasons. Few players are ever sold on the idea of playing on a one-year deal when a multi-year guarantee can be had. Single-year contracts, on the free agent market, are often reserved for older players who don’t know how long they wish to continue playing (e.g. Torii Hunter last year), players coming off significant injuries (e.g. Brett Anderson last winter) or players who have underperformed in a contract year (e.g. Colby Rasmus last offseason).
Indeed, we’ve yet to see a single player accept a qualifying offer. While upon first glance it might make sense to suggest a player with a spotty track record, such as Anderson, should accept the offer, there’s quite possibly more downside for him in accepting than in rejecting. Even if Anderson is faced with a cold market, he’d likely be able to find a one-year contract at an AAV north of $10MM — which is what he got last year after an injury-shortened season — if not a one-year offer commensurate with the total sum of the qualifying offer, as Ervin Santana did previously when signing a one-year, $14.1MM contract (that year’s QO value). Whereas the downside in accepting is “settling” for a one-year deal a few ticks below the QO level, the upside in rejecting is finding perhaps a three-year deal that could more than double the guarantee he’d otherwise receive. This risk/benefit calculus generally points toward testing the market.
Reports on whether or not any player will accept the offer should be filtering in over the next week, but those looking for a quick resource to check the status of each can use MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker (the provided link is already filtered to show only free agents that have received the QO, and their status will change from “Received” to “Rejected” or “Accepted” upon a decision being reached).
I can actually see Rasmus accepting the QA.
So, should Brett Anderson take it? I probably would if I were him. Unless, given his injury history, he thinks he could secure a little more on a 2 year deal somewhere (though who’s going to give up a pick for him?). That’s not a chance I would take.
If I’m Brett….. it might be my last time to get a biggish contract. Dude is always hurt. I go for the multi year even if the AAV is less.
Yeah you never know when you are going to fracture a foot or break a finger again.
Anderson is only 27, and none his injuries speak to a chronic medical issue. They were all unrelated or freaky. The Dodgers would not have extended the QO if they thought he was likely to be hurt again. Yet he is a good candidate to be the first to take the QO because, again, he is only 27. If he plays another year without being hit by a meteorite or something he would finally lay that “injury history” thing to rest and get himself a longer term contract at age 28.
Ask yourself this, though: if you are Brett Anderson, and now is the chance at a multi-year deal, isn’t it the time to test the market, when you are still young and were finally healthy?
And what’s the worst that will happen if you take the risk? Some team that has already kicked a pick or two, or that has a protected pick, will bail him out at 10 or 15 or 18 or whatever million in February.
Worth the risk, I think, to try to get the longer deal.
So far this has been the route all free agents have gone, so it would be a surprise if anyone, including Anderson, took the QO. The point I am making is the “injury history” narrative has taken over for him, and (just as this article shows), one season of not having some weird injury isn’t going to erase that narrative. Two healthy seasons might do it though, so he’s probably got the best case for being the first to accept the QO. A lot will depend on how he feels about himself. Before this season he talked about how he’d been unlucky so I suspect he feels pretty good about himself.
20 offers. You’d think someone has to be the first to accept a QO.
Someone better because I can say there’s over an 80% chance that teams this year won’t forfeit a total 20 draft picks first round or not.
Free Agents without QO’s might be picked up quickly by teams unwilling to part with picks or they will find themselves sacrificing those picks in February
Teams value those picks in assessing players, for sure, but I don’t think a lot of them are just completely unwilling to give one up. Look at the Mets’ signing of Cuddyer last year: they pretty much just approached it like a trade that sent out a pretty far-off future piece and brought them back a veteran at a fairly reasonable salary.
Also, there’s always the declining penalty that attaches to teams that have already signed one or more QO-bound players. If you give up pick 1 for David Price, it doesn’t hurt as much to give up pick 2 for Ian Kennedy and pick 3 for Colby Rasmus. (Or whatever.) The O’s did this a few years back with Ubaldo and Cruz.
Quite a few guys I could see a case for them accepting. Murphy, Rasmus, Anderson, Estrada, and/or Wieters.
Estrada and Rasmus should accept. Anderson, Iwakuma, and Fowler should consider it, but I don’t see them accepting.
When you see the Kennedy’s, Gallardo’s and Estrada’s getting offered the chance to take a guaranteed 16m for a single season? It makes one wonder why some people want Wade Miley moved as part of the overflow of innings eating starters Boston has.
Those 1st 3 have the chance to get massively overpaid now for a single season. Why can’t some of the Sox fans understand what a bargain Miley is at the remaining 3/27m?
Because when you have Porcello at 20mm, it makes 16mm for Estrada look reasonable.
Iwakuma should accept. He probably will just re-sign back with Seattle anyway, but he should try the FA market after a fully healthy year.
Iwakuma is 34 so that limits his potential earnings if he decides to try and test the market in a year. Even if he stays healthy, his age might limit him to a younger Bartolo Colon with a slightly lower ERA and higher strikeout numbers.
Wow, Rasmus Anderson and Estrada at $15.8 mil? All three better accept because it’s twice what they’re worth.
Easy prediction: Chen, Kennedy and Wieters (Boras clients) will reject Qualifying Offer. Boras is predictable. Bet they also don’t sign until late January/early February.
If Rasmus doesn’t accept, he’s going to follow in Stephen Drew’s footsteps and sit at home until May before re-signing with Houston or worse.
A couple other names strike me as being dudes you wouldn’t want to give up a first rounder for, but I’ve been surprised when it happens every year so why not give up a first round pick for Murphy, that sure won’t go wrong at all.