Few would’ve expected all three of Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon to remain on the free-agent market with just over two days of the calendar year remaining, but none of the trio has found a new team for the 2016 season at this juncture. With Jason Heyward off the board — and to a team, the Cubs, that didn’t figure to impact the corner outfield market anyhow — the market for the remaining top-tier outfielders should pick up in the not-too-distant future. Any of the three would represent a corner outfield upgrade for just about any team on the market, but each has points in his favor and points against, so let’s take a quick look at each outfielder.
Upton: The youngest player of the trio in this discussion, Upton will play next season at just 28 years of age. He’s four years younger than Gordon and two years younger than Cespedes, meaning any team that signs him will be buying more of his prime than they would in signing one of his competitors. Upton was the No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft, and while he hasn’t developed into the superstar projected by many scouts, he’s a well-above-average bat that could bolster any offense. Upton’s bat was about 20 percent better than the league average in 2015 with the Padres, and that gels with his career line. He’s averaged 25 homers and 148 games per season dating back to 2009 and does have one elite, superstar-caliber season (2011) under his belt. That year, he showed a glimpse of his true ceiling, hitting .289/.369/.529 with 31 homers and 21 steals. In the outfield, Upton is a solid, if unspectacular defender. He’s received positive marks in right field and left field from both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, although neither considers him an elite defensive option. He’s the weakest defensive player of this trio but also shouldn’t hit a decline phase in that regard as soon as his two corner counterparts.
Cespedes: The only player of this bunch that isn’t tied to draft pick compensation, Cespedes also boasts the most power of the group. Upton’s .202 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) is impressive, but Cespedes’ career mark of .215 tops it, and his 2015 mark of .251 bests anything ever compiled by Upton or Gordon. Defensive metrics absolutely love Cespedes in left field, where has a penchant for highlight-reel throws and above-average range. Cespedes, though, has seen his walk rate decline in each of his big league seasons. His .328 OBP from 2016 is almost entirely a function of his .291 batting average, and if that mark regresses to his career level of .271 going forward, Cespedes could struggle to keep his OBP above .300. A player with his power, defense and speed can certainly add value in other ways, but a poor approach and lack of plate discipline will become more prounounced issues if his power begins to fade in the later stages of what could be a six- or seven-year contract.
Gordon: At 32, Gordon is the oldest of the remaining top tier of outfielders. He has the least power of the group by a wide margin, but he’s also been easily the best defensive player, ranking eighth in the Majors in Defensive Runs Saved and fifth in Ultimate Zone Rating among all players at any position over the past three years. Gordon strikes out the least of this bunch and walks the most, so he has a considerably different skill set than his younger, more powerful free-agent peers. Gordon figures to command the shortest commitment of this trio — a five-year deal is the expectation here — and while that’s an advantage in some regards, the reasoning behind that term (his age) is not. Upton, for instance, could sign a contract with an opt-out after three years, as Heyward did, and still re-enter the market younger than Gordon is right now. A five-year deal for a 32-year-old is a risky proposition, and having rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer following the 2015 season, Gordon comes with the additional red flag of draft pick compensation.
As stated earlier, any of the three would represent an upgrade for most clubs. The White Sox, Giants, Padres, Angels, Orioles, Tigers, Indians and Royals could all use corner outfield upgrades, though not all of those clubs has the financial means to add a top free agent. (Notably, Kansas City’s most recent offer reportedly resulted in Gordon’s camp telling him they have “no chance” to re-sign him.) Further fits could arise in the wake of trades, too.
There’s no true apples-to-apples comparison, as each player figures to command a different price tag. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $105MM deal for Gordon earlier this offseason while estimating a six-year, $140MM deal for Cespedes and a seven-year, $147MM deal for Upton (though Upton could command an opt-out, as the youngest of the group, which would be yet another wrinkle to the equation). There are a number of factors to be considered, but for the rudimentary purposes of this poll, we’ll simply ask, in a vacuum…
Which free agent outfielder would you rather sign?
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Justin Upton 38% (7,504)
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Yoenis Cespedes 36% (7,099)
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Alex Gordon 27% (5,342)
Total votes: 19,945
I voted Upton, though I want the 3 year opt out to be mutual. I voted on the assumption that each came with their predicted contracts.
Mutual opt out? How would that work though? If he stinks, he opts in and the O’s opt out. Vice-versa would similarly apply I would think.
I was just being ridiculous because I think 7/147 for Upton is too.
Gordon 4/88M ChiSox
Cespedes 6/150M Tigers
Upton 7/154M Orioles
Personally, I see higher upside in Upton than the others, you’re buying more of his prime. He has 30+ HR pop, and could do a lot of damage in the AL East with the hitter friendly parks.
Your salaries are a bit low, except for Gordon.
I see Cespedes getting 7/231M (SFG)
Upton 7/175M (BAL)
Gordon: 5/70M (unsure which team)
If Brixton’s salaries are low (personally I don’t think they are…maybe by a little bit), yours are WAY too high.
7/231 for Cespedes (a guy who will legitimately struggle to have an OBP north of .330) is ridiculous. Yes, he adds value in other areas, but he’s not getting that contract. If he was going to get that he would have signed before Heyward.
I’m just gonna run on the assumption that your prediction for Yo is sarcastic or a typo.
Unfortunately….he his serious. Scroll down a few comments…….
Also, 5/70 for Gordon is low in my opinion. The market has shown that it is starting to value defensive and non-traditional (baserunning, etc) metrics, He’s older, so that will affect the years obviously but I don’t think it will impact his AAV too much.. I can see him getting anywhere from 18-22 a year.
And I actually think your Upton prediction is pretty spot-on…so I guess my only qualm is with the Cespedes prediction.
I’m sorry, you see cespedes getting 7/231? How drunk are you? A guy that doesn’t even have a career obp of .300. Look dude, if you were a gm you would be terrible. Especially with the off season getting later and later, cespedes will be lucky to land a 5 year deal. Even on a back loaded contract that’s MVP paying numbers. That would literally be the largest paying contract out there. You need to wake up and smell the roses. Cespedes should command something in the realm of 5/120-5/140. Not 7/231. You’re insane.
Tisk. Tisk. Name calling, like profanity, is the last refuge of the impotent mind.
He says Cespedes is going to get a 6/7 deal with an AAV of $28M so SF needs to pay him $33-35M to work.
Absolutely no way does Cespedes get more money and years than Upton. Never. Happening.
I can only come to the conclusion that this was meant as a joke.
What comps are you basing these projections on? Or are you just pulling them out of your ass?
the
Cespedes 7/231?
There is absolutely NO WAY that he gets that kind of money.
biggest overpay.
Angels should sign Gordon for 4yrs/72m
I so want the Orioles to sign Upton and stick it to Davis/Upton.
So then he just signs with another club for the same money…i’d say that’s hardly sticking it to him, if he felt any loyalty to the Orioles he would’ve already signed
No other club has made him a higher offer. He’d end up signing for less.
I agree it’s an overpay
Boras, not Upton.
If I was an AL team, I’d take Cespedes; if I was an NL team, I’d take Upton; and if I was a team a team with a title window of 2016-2018, I’d take Gordon.
Cardinal fan here. I voted Upton and he fits the criteria you laid out for the Cardinals. I know the Cards always seem to have a contending team, but Wainwright is 34, Molina is 33, Holiday 36. Molina and Holiday are in decline, the Cardinals should sign Upton and go for it all the next 2-3 years. I believe 7 years, $145 would get it done. (with an opt-out after 3 years) The Cardinals can definitely afford it, and their window may be closing.
Cards would have to cut Adams though, and move Holliday to 1B full time. Could happen, but STL also has plenty of internal OF options. I honestly think Cespedes is a better fit, because he plays all 3 OF spots, and Upton+Gordon are limited to LF.
They wouldn’t “cut” Adams, they’d trade him. Then put Steven Piscotty at 1B and Upton in RF, where he has played before. That would give the cards the best lineup they’ve had in years: Carpenter, Piscotty, Holiday, Upton, Peralta, Grichuk, Wong and Molina. Everybody but Molina has 20+ HR potential. With their pitching, they’d be formidable.
Also, their is a reason Cespedes has played for 4 teams the last 2 seasons, and I don’t believe it’s a good one.
I’ll take upton in Baltimore. I would give him the same offer that Chris Davis got 7/154m just to stick to Davis/Boras
Wow MLB Trade Rumors. Never knew Upton had “31 Gomers”
Cespedes due to the fact that there is no draft pick
Upton would be my choice. He is still relatively young, has the best offensive ceiling of the three, and is a pretty good defender.
Cespedes’ OBP is just too poor for my liking and I don’t think he is the same player going forward (I don’t think he repeats the same power output). Of course, not being attached by a QO makes him intriguing, but I would still would rather the other two.
Gordon is a very good all around player, and is a great defender. He also has great OBP skills. The downside is he is older. Given he ends up getting a 4-5 year deal, I would still prefer Upton.
As I Dodger fan I’d rather the Dodgers sign Upton over the other big three. He’s the youngest, most familiar with the NL West, has the highest ceiling/floor, and will decline the slowest of the three.
Gomers are all that matter,
Spell check steve, spell check
Don’t pick on typos because gawd knows we all make them. Besides “31 gomers” really did make my day.
As a Giants fan, I want Cespedes far more than the other two. First of all, Alex Gordon is really a below average offensive player. Great defense, but that alone shouldn’t buy him anything close to 100M. I still think teams and fanbases both overestimate Gordon. He was a great prospect, I watched him get drafted, lots of hype there early on. But he just cannot hit well enough. Cespedes will get a 6 or 7 year deal with an AAV of over $28,000,000. Giants should pay him 33 to 35M per season just to make the deal work. And because of CA state income tax being higher, he’ll ask more from them. Fair market value IMO for Alex Gordon is a 3 year/18M deal tops. Sadly he’ll get about 85M. Justin Upton is comsistently decent, but watch out when he demands an opt out after 3 or so years. Overall, clear choise is Cespedes.
Be honest, you’re a Dodger fan, right?
No. I’ve lived in San Francisco since 1990. I was born in 1990. I’ve lived there my whole life except for college in Monterey, CA. I HATE LA. BEAT LA
Gordon had a 122 wRC+ last year so he was actually 22% better than an average hitter, Not a “below average offensive player”.
Ah. Another guy that uses just one stat, wRC+ (not even a staple stat) to define whether or not a hitter is better or worse than the norm.
I thought MLBTR was for baseball fans, not sabermetric geeks.
And again, I’m not trying to insult you or anyone that uses solely one stat to define a player. I’m not a troll. But I do have a strong opinion on this issue.
But wRC+ takes all of the main hitting stats, combines them, and tells you how good a player is compared to everybody else….. It is the one stat that tells you how good a hitter a player is. There aren’t many stats available that will tell you all that information.
Ok…
.809 OPS
120 OPS+
averaged 18 HR a year over the last 5 seasons
Plus all the sabermetrics.
Gordon is far from a below average hitter.
Thanks for the laugh. Hopefully all SF aren’t as dumb as you. 33-35M/7 years for Cespedes!? hahahhahaha. Thanks again. Oh, and Gordon’s career OPS+ is 112, Cespedes’ is 122. So if Gordon is below average….and Cespedes in roughly 10% better….does that make Cespedes just average?
Um. You”re welcome for the laugh I guess. But honestly I was being serious. Realize 2 things here:
1. No draft pick attached to Cespedes will only increase his asking price. Brixton’s projected salary would be very close, or even accurate if signee would lose their first rounder.
2. Cesdepes is the best power hitter on this list, and also the second youngest. AND he has stellar defense. Better than Gordon for throwing arm.
But according to a guy that uses just OPS+ as his only stat, I suspected as much.
Ok. How about a career .269/.348/.435 career slash line? Despite Cespedes large advantage in power, his OPS is only 25 pts higher than Gordon’s. Would you care to explain how Gordon is below average offensively with his slash but Cespedes and his .271/.312/486 isn’t? He has drawn less walks every season despite his PA’s going up every season. A first round draft pick is valued in the neighborhood of $7M….<—-that's a one time cost. So how do you come to the conclusion that Cespedes not being attached to draft pick makes him worth so much more?
Oh, and he’s the 2nd youngest!? He’s 30. A player’s prime is their mid-late 20’s. SF would be paying for the downside of Cespedes career.
How about some defensive stats too. Gordon has played 778 games in the OF and has 11 errors, .994 fielding %, and 68 assists. Cespedes has 490 games and 20 errors, .981 fielding %, and 48 assists. Right now Gordon is probably the 2nd best defensive OF in all of MLB
Gordon isn’t even in the top 10 best defensive OF.
Kiermaier, Cain, Lagares, Heyward, Gomez, Hamilton, Dyson, Pollock, Martin, Incirarte, Bradley Jr, Pillar, Marisnick are all better than him. He’s top 20 though, which is nothing to sneeze at.
You said Cespedes will get paid more than David Price, I’m sorry we aren’t supposed to laugh at that?
Stop sniffing glue bro. Or keep on being wrong. Your choice.
The largest seven year contract ever is to David Price at $217MM. The largest seven year contract for a position player is Adrian Gonzalez at $154MM.
There are only six deals ever to exceed your proposed $231MM contract. They are Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez x2, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and Giancarlo Stanton. Of those contracts, one was 13 years, four were 10 years, and one was eight years.
The only player to exceed your proposed $33MM AAV is Zack Greinke on a six year deal.
So where is the precedence for your proposed contract of 7/231 for Yoenis Cespedes?
I promise you that this dude is the only Giants fan who feels this way.
No, literally no one can be as dumb as Matt Rox
As a Giants fan I would much rather have Upton with a 3 year opt out than Cespedes at some ridiculous AAV as you are suggesting. That’s Bryce Harper money if he were a free agent today, not Cespedes money.
The concept of Cespedes getting 30M is absolutely ridiculous.
Nice read. Thanks, Steve.
Uptown because of youth and consistency. Gordon next, because of shorter, more reasonable deal. Cespedes last because of volatility. He seems like the biggest risk. A fangraphs article didn’t have him ageing well. I’d pass on $140 – $150 million on him.
Wow. I have a different view. Pay him ovef 200M. 7 years. Make it happen Giants!
I see.
200 mil for 7 years that’s way way too much money. 28 1/2 mil a year r u on drugs. SF has money but their not stupid. Good thing u don’t own them they be broke.
Consistent? Upton is extremely inconsistent. He’s a streaky hitter who will carry a team for 4-5 select weeks in a season. He’s consistent in the sense that his numbers always end up around the same (.270/25-30/90rbi) by the end of the year, but within the season he is anything but consistent.
Awesome if the white sox could get a deal for Gordon, wish they would go for Upton
Gordon for 4years would be ok, Upton for 3yrs and a opt out would be ok, no thanks to Cespedes. A healthy Span is the best option out of them all.
this is what it says about Cespedes in the article.
His .328 OBP from 2016 is almost entirely a function of his .291 batting average, and if that mark regresses to his career level of .271 going forward,
since we know this, what are the rest of his stats, along with gordons and uptons so we can relay this futuristic information to the clubs interested.
This is a tough decision. If you were factoring only pure production then I’d take Upton but AAV and years of commitment make this much more convoluted.
Please someone tell me Matt Rox is a kid and not serious. Please.
No op player is worth over 30 million a year except Harper, Trout maybe few others. Any of those 3 are not even close. SF def not paying anyone more than 28 mil a year. Let alone 33 or 35. U think Ces is worth more than Cren, Price, Gren, Ari, or Goldsmith? Your stupid kid very. Sorry
Gordon get 4 years 82 million and predict W Sox (20.5 m yr)
Upton goes to Det 158 over 7 years opt out after 4. (22.5 m yr)
Davis resign with Balt 161 7 years opt after 3. (23 m yr) back loaded
Cespedes to SF 6 years 130 club op after 4,years. ( 21.5 mil yr) back loaded
Heard it here first.
But they are all so close in value… I’m not a huge Cespedes fan, love Alex Gordon because of defense and durability, but I had to choose Justin Upton, mostly because of age, but also because that right handed power doesn’t grow on trees(unless that tree is in Toronto, and has some blue jays in it)
Cardinals should be on that list
I think Brixton # are almost dead on.
Gordon 4/88M ChiSox
Cespedes 6/150M Tigers
Upton 7/154M Orioles
MY Projections:
Gordon get 4 years 82 million and predict W Sox (20.5 m yr)
Upton goes to Det 158 over 7 years opt out after 4. (22.5 m yr)
Davis resign with Balt 161 7 years opt after 3. (23 m yr) back loaded
Cespedes to SF 6 years 130 club op after 4,years. ( 21.5 mil yr) back loaded
I have it a bit lower than his only because I think the market now has went down. Not to say they all don’t deserve those numbers/ Many teams have “BLOWN” their wad.- Also I look at the Hayward signing, the Cubs my team lol. Hayward signed for 184 over 8 years, forget the opts, that is 23 a year really the latter part is lower, the the early part up-loaded. Opts are NOT bad thing BTW, esp how the Cubs are planning it. Too long to explain. So at ave of 23 Million I’m at those prjections and the market RN with the remaining 3.
Trams still with money are Chicago. and yes Ces may go their but I think the Sox will spend less on Gordon. Their a middle of the pact team RN. I don’t see them winning the Central over a KC or Det this year. Clev still be battling also but more a 3rd/4th place team. Balt can’t have it’s cake and eat it to. They wont get both. Really I see them coming to terms with Davis/ It like a strike at some time someone says ok hell with it, lets get back to work Davis probably hit 161 or near it for 7 years back with Balt. St.L hasn’t blown their wad, but again it is like ok can’t buy the Lambo, can’t buy the Ferrari, Do I really want a Porsche or just drive what I still have. Not saying they wont land someone, maybe Gordon, but I think their set TBH.. SF probably land Ces but not even close to Rox numbers not even in the Universe. Remember they signed Cuteo, for 130 you really think Ces is going to get more money or if so a lot more. Look at the signing and market. Also SF has money but they are about done, if they sign him, it be at a lesser cost just like the bargain and risk of Cuteo. LA A could play a part although they can go with what they got, they may toss in a bid and get lucky. SD and Clev are the wild cards. One is trying to rebuild barley, abd one is building and has pitchers but needs outfielders, so what do you do with the little money you have. NOT MUCH. St.L is iffy, they have cash, but as the GM said think were done RN. So that is why I have them going were they are going. NY Yanks don,t need any of them, but they didn’t need Chap either and look what happened. So you never know. Other than that thats my prediction.
1B: C Davis
2B: H Kendrick
SS: I Desmond
3B: D Freese
C: W. Rosario
LF: A Gordon
CF: Y Cespedes
RF: J Upton
DH: P. Alvarez/C. Carter
SP: S Kazmir/Y Chen/Y Gallardo/C Lee/I Kennedy
Where does this team finish in 2016? Postseason?
Over the LUX Tax lol. Not bad to be honest. But wo a bull pen, closer, and bench players they might be in trouble. That would take a division, but not a WS.
I always feel like I’m missing something when people go crazy over Justin Upton. I just don’t think he’s that great of a player. He’s got age working in his favor, but I don’t buy him as a legit power hitter. Over 8 seasons, he’s hit 30+ HR’s only once (31HR in 2011) and only averages 24 HR’s per year.
Given his age, I’d like to be positive about his future, but 8 years is a pretty decent sample size. I think you could also legitimately wonder if he already peaked in 2011.
So, unless he pulls a Dwight Evans and starts mashing 30+HR and 90+RBI a year, 10 years in to his career, I’d pass on the 7 year deals with Upton
Will one fall through the cracks and take a pillow 1 year deal? If so the Tigers are waiting.
Span is a better option for the Tigers than any of those three. They need a leadoff hitter.
Here’s the thing
I read on the BaltimoreSun that the O’s probably won’t pay Cespedes over $100m and I’ve also heard that the Giants are probably looking at a guy like Parra due to the fact that they’ve shelled out over $250m in Shark and Cueto already. Therefore, the White Sox are the only team in this race with legit money to spend, however, I think that the price tag will be a bit less than most people imagined. I’d say 5 years $110m. It’s a 22 AAV, it’s not so long that it’s crippling and I can see an opt out after 2 or 3.
I think the Orioles take Gordon on a 4 year deal worth about $80m and I think Upton takes a pillow contract with Detroit worth about $16m over 1 year.
The Tigers will not be giving up a pick for a one year deal. They spent on pitching. They will be looking for a lower cost OF option.
They have a protected 1st which could influence their decision
Why would a minor second round prospect matter if they could get one of those guys? Not following. The prospect that they would get around pick 45 would maybe be #25 in their system.
Cubs sign cespedes and put schwarber at catcher. Adds unneeded but awesome pop to a young lineup