DEC. 3: An $18MM average annual value is the “going rate” for Samardzija, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com/CBS Chicago hears (Twitter link). A source confirmed to Levine that at least one team has offered Samardzija $90MM. It remains unclear which teams are involved at this level, but it would appear that Samardzija has at least a pair of quite strong offers in hand already as his camp gears up for the Winter Meetings.
DEC. 2: The representatives of free agent righty Jeff Samardzija are telling teams that the hurler already has at least one $100MM offer on the table, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Needless to say, that’s a huge number for a pitcher coming off a down year, but speaks to his popularity among scouts and executives.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his profile of the talented veteran, there’s a lot to like about Samardzija despite his ugly ERA last season. Dierkes foresaw a five-year, $80MM deal resulting.
To be sure, it once seemed plenty plausible to imagine Samardzija taking down nine figures in free agency. His outstanding 2014 season appeared to set the table for just that kind of payday, and the fact that he was traded for a premium prospect in Addison Russell confirmed that the market put a high value on his arm. And it’s often been noted that Samardzija comes with relatively low mileage.
It better not be from the Yankees or Cubs because at that point you might as well have gone after Zimmermann.
That’s not to say they didn’t offer a deal to Zimmermann.
I’d have to think if the Cubs offered Zimmerman that kind of money, he would have taken it. The Tigers aren’t what they used to be, even with the best pure hitter on the planet in Miguel Cabrera, and you’d have to assume a competitive offer from the Cubs would have made them the favorite.
Young team that overachieved and showed they’re capable of winning in the next year or so.
Every free agent has his own preference, just because youd rather play for the Cubs than the Tigers, doesnt mean he would. I know you Yankee fans really want Kinsler and while you want to count Detroit out, that front office hasnt.
With the way Zimmerman’s peripherals have been steadily trending downward, the thought of pitching half his games in cavernous Comerica Park must have enticed him.
I think Zimmerman wanted to play close to home.
Zimmermann stated that the Tigers contacted him(his agent) as soon as it was legal and stated he was their #1 target. He said other teams showed interest but said he was their back up play if their main target signed elsewhere. He really liked the fact Detroit wanted him and wanted to get a deal done soon.
Chicago is closer to Wisconsin then Detroit technically.
My guess is the Cubs, M’s, or Yankees. If its even true.
Who are the M’s?
Mariners
M’s = Mariners!
Oh my gosh you have the best username. Every fantasy team I’ve owned for the past 10 years has been named Bellhorn’s Bombers. Sorry just had to say that
Mariners
I don’t think it’s the Yankees, though it could be entirely reactionary to Boston signing Price, which makes the deal that much worse. If you’re Brian Cashman and you’re trying to counter the Sox, you go out and get Greinke or trade for a frontline starter. You don’t offer big money to a #3 starter when you already have Pineda.
Someone offered him a $100,000,000 contract and he didn’t sign?
I.DON’T.BELIEVE.
I dont believe any team would offer him that kind of money.. If they did, he would be crazy not to take it. I just dont believe it.
The only way anyone offered him $100 million was if it was an 8 or 9 year deal.
it doesn’t sound like zimmermann would have signed for the number he did with just any team. midwestern roots, no-trade clauses and all that
He’s definitely worth it though, despite the down season. He was an absolute horse/ace for Oakland down the stretch last year.
He’s had one season as a high level starter and was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. He will also be 31 next Jan. What a disgrace of an offer.
Its not at all a disgrace, he was basically a 3 fWAR pitcher last year lol
It absolutely is a disgrace. An average pitcher for his career who was one of the worst in baseball last year. Just awful.
He wasnt even the worst pitcher on the White Sox last year… So just stop-
He absolutely was.
John Danks… not even close –
You’re only proving to us all that you are more interested in knocking Samardzija than being willing to let people share why he has any level of value.
he was nowhere near one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. He was tied for 37th among all qualified starters in fWAR (out of 78) so he was pretty much dead avg
I don’t care about fWAR for pitchers. It is literally meaningless.
How could u say that but say it’s s terrible offer? That makes absolutely no sense.
It’s meaningless? Or it doesn’t support the argument you’re trying to make?
fWAR is pretty meaningless for pitchers. rWAR has proven much more accurate as a predictive measure for pitchers and his was 0.2 in 2015.
You sound like a bitter White Sox fan who’s just mad he had to watch Shark allowed a ton of runs, due mostly, I’d assume, to Chicago’s historically bad defense. The defense that also cost Chris Sale a CY.
Joe you obviously dis not see the Shark pitch much. You can’t defense a ball hit out of the park.
Shark’s problems weren’t that he regressed, it was a combination of the terrible White Sox defense and the idiotic coaching staff insisting that he throw a cutter and abandon the pitching plan that led to his breakout year. He’ll leave Chicago and likely go back to being a solid 1B/2 rotation starter.
He absolutely regressed last season. Both of the things you mentioned played into that, but he had much bigger issues than just those. I honestly don’t know if I’ve ever seen a pitcher as consistently wild while staying in the strike zone as he was (Somehow that’ll make sense if you watched him all last year?), and that was with every pitch, not just the new cutter. That led to him being constantly hit HARD and giving up way too many homers. The Sox defense was (and probably still is) god awful, but his poor season absolutely cannot be blamed on that.
That being said, I fully expect him to be a very solid #2 for some NL team next year (probably the Cubs).
He was never a #1/#2 starter. His career performance simply does not support that argument in any way shape or form. You could argue that IF he can repeat his breakout 2014 season that he would make a good #3 starter, but his career stats would not support that either. Shark is what he is, a horse that you put at the back of an already good rotation so he can eat innings out of the #4 slot.
It didnt help to have a pitching coach who was unable to correct last years problems that is somehow considered a top tier pitching coach labeled by all Sox fans
If he went back to the Cubs Bosio will fix any issues hes having
Probably. Bosio is the World’s Best Pitching Coach.
Lol, what a tool.
He had a 4.96 ERA and a FIP and xFIP around 4.2 in 2015. He only struck out 6.9 per 9IP and had a 79 ERA+. Nothing there screams anything other than a 4th or 5th starter. Neither does his career stats as a starter – 4.14 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 1.248 WHIP and 8.2 K/9. Even in 2014, his best season, he was not great just above average. What he is, is a horse. An inning eater you put near the back of your rotation. How that could possibly be worth $100 million is beyond me. I would think 5/80 would be more than fair compensation for the value he brings in performance.
Agreed. I can’t believe any team is offering that for him. It would be idiotic.
Yes but he dosent have the wear and tear of a 31 year old pitcher.
Hope its the Yanks or Cubs.
If this is the cubs major pitching acquisition, it’s going to be a disappointing year!
At $100M it certainly would be unless it’s over 6-7 years, although this market…. I thought the Cubs dodged a bullet when they didn’t extend Shark. I’m not opposed to him coming back as a #3 or #4 starter, especially since he’s had success working with Chris Bosio.
Exactly. He wont have the pressure of a #1 sp on the Cubs. He will be their 3 or 4
The offer came from 6 yo GM Timmy for his neighborhood team. The offer also states that if the fundraiser to pay his salary each year doesn’t net enough money, Shark will get the balance in Worlds Greatest Chocolate fundraiser candy bars
I have a $500 million offer from an unknown team.
Not sure why everyone loves this guy. He’s had a few good seasons and a few horrible seasons. Not worth 100 mill
Samardzija throws a lot of innings, which is a very valuable trait. In fact, only 27 other pitchers threw for 200 or more innings last year (not even 1 per team).
Take away all the other stats, and Samardzija is valuable for that reason alone. In my opinion.
Let’s not mention the ERA a tick away from 5 though!
For one season… in a hitters ballpark.. with a putrid defense behind him.
He’s literally had one better than decent season as a starting pitcher. One.
He pitches 200 innings a season. There’s tremendous value in that.
That was my point.
I guess I’m too old school in that 200 IP isn’t that impressive for that kind of money. If you can’t go at least 8 IP on a consistent basis, then you’re not worth anything more than the league minimum.
There are no pitchers that go 8 innings on a regular basis.
Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta, Price, Bumgarner and Keuchel pitched into the 8th more often than they didnt last year. All had 17+ starts out of 32 or 33 in which they pitched into the 8th. All of them had at least 9 starts in which they finished the 8th. Not many pitchers, but there are a few.
what? in the age of bullpen specialization and rising costs of pitching, very few arms are given the chance to go deep anymore. 28 starters went 200 innings or more last year, and 56 went 180 or more. (out of 141 starters to throw at least 100 innings) it’s an entirely new game now.
There is not $100 million in value just from pitching 200 innings. What it means is that he is a #4 inning eater.
3.38 xFIP; 3.45 xFI; 3.07 xFIP; 4.31 xFIP… Actually – he’s only had one season a starter that wasn’t above average.
lol xfip.
nothing funnier than when someone celebrates statistical ignorance
Judging a player’s value by xFIP is ridiculous. xFIP is better used as a predictive tool- not as a valuation method. And yes, it can be wrong there too (see Johnny Cueto.) WAR should be used to judge what happened, not what should have happened. Which is why Fangraphs’ pitching WAR is a joke.
lol, keep telling yourself that sweetheart
You talking to me or Joshbresser?
josh… sorry, when we get down to these tiny reply levels it all mashes together. sorry for the confusion
When you’re projecting – as is the case with ALL free agency contracts – you look at predictive stats… like xFIP.
xFIP is a good predictive stat. Shark had a 4.31 xFIP last season. rWAR has also shown itself to be a very accurate predictive stat (fWAR has not been shown to be a good predictive stat for pitchers, but has been for hitters). It had him at 0.2 rWAR. SIERA has proven to be the best predictive stat by a good margin. It had Shark at 4.18. All of the best predictive stats say he was well below average even those that are independent of the defense behind him. They all project him as a below average starter next season. Certainly does not bode well for any team that pays him $100 million.
I would hardly call averaging 3 WAR a year over the last 4 years “one better than decent season”
Depends on which WAR system you use. By bWAR, he’s averaged 1.2.
not a fan of bWAR…. I only use fangraphs
Not a fan of Fangraphs’ pitching WAR because it doesn’t make sense. WAR = what a player actually contributed to the team. Not what “SHOULD” have happened.
Admit it, you just don’t like Samardzija and can’t stand that places like Fangraphs actually see his value.
How did I explain WAR? WAR tells you what a player contributed. Not what they theoretically should have contributed.
WAR takes the summary – the stats that we’ve basically thrown away as useless and irrelevant as it pertains to a players independent contribution — and it uses that to calculate how much value the player has… It’s utterly stupid when you consider that Connor Gillaspie’s ability at 3B has anything to do with Samardzija’s WAR numbers…
it does measure that. ERA doesn’t tell you nearly as much about what a pitcher DID as FIP does. grant you there ARE a few arms who consistently outperform their FIP but not enough to dismiss the entire system. Unless you want to make the argument that pitchers have absolute control over defenses and batted ball location.
I don’t want to dismiss the entire system. I like FIP. It’s great as a predictive tool, for 90% of pitchers. It just tells me nothing about value…AKA wins added.
Well FIP says Shark was bad, really bad in 2015. 61st of 78 qualifying pitchers in terms of IP. You are not helping your argument by using FIP. While rWAR takes into account what did happen, fWAR uses stats about what should have happened in a perfect world. In that one thing he is absolutely correct. fWAR is pretty useless for pitchers.
…yea – cause why isolate the independent variables that a pitcher can control when it’s easier to just use other stats that have nothing to do with him…
That’s useful in predicting future performance…for most pitchers. It tells me nothing about the pitcher’s value that season though (AKA wins added…AKA WAR.)
A pitcher with a 5 ERA and 3 FIP still hurt the team, whether that was fluky or not.
A pitcher with those numbers suggests that the defense hurt the team – not the pitcher.
Defense isn’t the only factor taken into account in FIP/xFIP.
or the bullpen… or both
For example, if a pitcher has an ERA of ~5 and a FIP of 3, sure- you could say he got unlucky/had horrible defense behind him and that should regress positively. That doesn’t mean he was any more valuable though, because he actually gave up the runs- fluke or not.
but you are putting the blame on his performance rather than the defense or a lousy bullpen…. etc so his performance wasn’t as bad as ERA would lead you to believe. this is WHY we need FIP it isn’t JUST as a predictive tool. It allows us to look at a pitcher’s season and see through the noise of defense, bullpens and BABIP
Disagree.
Josh, this really isn’t something that can be agreed or disagreed with at this point. FIP is what it is and has its uses. Disregarding it, or fwar, or any statistical evaluation as useless is in and of itself useless. They all have a place in evaluation.
Sharks FIP was really bad. 61st out of 78 qualified starters bad. And you only had to throw 160 innings to qualify.
That’s like saying a batter is responsible for a strikeout even if the ball was thrown into the stands and the umpire simply missed it because he had something in his eye.
Of course that tells you something, it tells you the batter has a good eye. Even despite the strikeout.
You can’t dismiss someone’s good performance just because they experience bad luck.
Its rWAR for Baseball Reference and its far more accurate in both describing production and in predicting performance for pitchers. fWAR is simply not even close to accurate for pitchers. Which is kinda sad since it is the better indicator of past performance for position players. Makes you have to go to two different sites for your stats if you want to be accurate.
Then lets not mention his 4.2 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and xFIP either. His problems didn’t stem from just bad defense, they stemmed for the most part on bad pitching.
That’s what makes him a good option for the Yanks.
last 4 years WAR 2.7, 2.7, 4.1, 2.7. guy is consistently around a 3 WAR arm and throws a ton of innings. at present day prices he is worth around $20m AAV
No. fWAR is ridiculous. If you go by bWAR, he was a 0.2 WAR Player last year. Which is much more reasonable for a guy with an ERA near 5.
ERA is like a movie trailer. You need to see the movie to know what actually happened
man that might be the best analogy yet for ERA, well done!
More like wins and losses
nah, wins and losses are almost like a movie review written by someone who only likes action films.
But FIP and xFIP are not and for Shark they are in line with a 0.2 WAR. 2.7 fWAR in his case is just another indication that its not worth even considering as a measurement of performance for pitchers.
If the Dumb Jays can give 36 million to J.A. Crapp what’s Samardzija worth? 100 million sounds right.
6 yr deal?
I would think it would be 5.
possibly – although if its a 5 yr deal I think he would be telling teams he has a $20M yr offer not a $100M total offer. Maybe try to squeeze out a 6th year from someone
7 probably.
Please don’t be the Yankees
My guess its the Bears with only 21million guaranteed.
I see Cubs written all over this.. He is apparently tight with Theo. It’s the Cubs.
Doubt it, Yankee’s cause he’s tighter with Hendry, who drafted him.
Didn’t he want out of Chicago because they were terrible a couple years ago?
Well they aren’t terrible anymore
They can have him for that.
Last 4 seasons by fWAR: 2.7, 2.7, 4.1, 2.7,
2.7 fWAR is worth what, $20M a year? How off am I here?
WAR is such a poor stat to use to valuate pitching. Positional players are around 6m/WAR in FA or pretty close to that figure.
actually no, it was around $7m last year and should be near $8m this year, and fWAR isn’t perfect, but it’s a helluva lot better than using baseball card stats
While certainly the trendy thing to say, no stat is very useful on its own. fWAR or FIP/xFIP without reference to traditional stats and other advanced metrics, provides an incomplete picture and can lead to bad assumptions. For example, Ricky Nolasco did well in fWAR and FIP but the results did not match, to some extent the same can be said of Samardzija. I am not saying this is what you are doing, but just pointing out its not a matter of, these stats good, these stats bad. They are better when used in conjunction with one another.
fWAR is ridiculous. He was one of the worst in baseball last year.
fWAR is such a poor stat for pitchers that its useless in discussions about performance or value. FIP, xFIP, rWAR (Baseball Reference) and SIERA are all very accurate indicators of performance for pitchers.
Not worth it
Looks like free agency busted out its endless supply of cocaine…
I am interested in seeing what the zero point is for free agent contracts and when it will come. Sooner or later there is going to be a time and place where contracts stop going up and up…. right? lol
As long as season ticket holders renew their ticket increases and media companies pay more for the broadcast rights, player contracts will continue to rise. The players have actually been getting a smaller piece of the pie lately.
I think the long term TV deals are going to end up being what changes things. More and more people are cutting the cord and this is going to force MLB’s hand on allowing local viewing of teams via their streaming package. Maybe they can make a deal with networks to share revenue. But it seems to me that the era of bajillion dollar deals for tv rights might be coming to an end.
Let’s hope there is some sort of local ala carte online option in the near future. Sports are the reason that cable premiums are jacked up.
In fact, a tree limb fell in my yard the other day and took down the cable wire with it. What do I care? I’ve never subscribed.
one can stream any sports game online with minimal effort to locate a site really. If I was gven the option to watch braves games via mlb’s streaming service I would pay for it. but I am not (even tho I live 6 hours away from atlanta)
Pitching is getting so expensive, highlighting the need for young players. This offer better not have come from the Yanks.
I like him but not for $100M! Good innings eater
For Zimmerman to settle for 122m over 5y and some team to supposedly offer Shark 100m? Man, FO minds are burning money on a pitcher for a guy who has only really had a cpl goody as a starter, just because he’s got less mileage on his arm and ignoring the long track record of Zimmerman.
isn’t Zimmermann’s deal 5/$110MM?
Almost reminds me of James shield receiving 110 mill offer from “un named team” last year lol.
Beat me to it
It’s the Dbacks,
At this rate, assuming Greinke signs within the week, the asking price for Cueto will be a mid-sized planet.
Let me guess his agent is spreading that nonsense while hoping that all the gm’s didn’t watch last season
SMH at the Insanity of these deals for pitchers.
While they are good, but the money involved is just simply obscene.
Probably an agent with close media ties who’s sole goal is to try and drive the price up for second tier pitching. With Price setting the table thus far for tier one’s, the remainder of the free agent starters should unravel quickly thus leaving some very expensive table scraps to be gobbled up by the rabid dogs in the league vying for some help. This is the best hot stove season I can ever remember, and we’ve only scratched the trades that are going to be made. Hold on tight, and don’t forget your blood pressure medicine.
O/T : Rumor is that Greinke has a 6 year/$210 Million offer from the Dodgers.
I assume if he had a 35M AAV offer in hand, he would’ve signed. That makes him the highest paid pitcher by quite a margin
Agreed. Here’s the rumor
twitter.com/FeinsandNYDN/status/672130597423292416
I tend to think that the huge money deals aren’t nearly as painful as the fact that they boost the prices for lesser talent. Greinke at $35m a yr is a ton, but when it makes the Gallardos and Chens of the world into $18m+ AAV pitchers it starts to really hurt the smaller market teams.
Bad deal for whoever makes it. The market for mid-level talent is getting out of hand.
His agent just floated a fake offer like James Shields and Chase Headley’s agents did last year.
I have a question for all you guys and gals who seem to know all about the “alphabet soup” of stats. Can someone please tell me which stat will factor out runs scored that are charged to a pitcher(the runners on base that he allowed on base before he is pulled and the next pitchers allowed them to score). I know they show up on the initial pitchers stats and I would like to know if there is a stat that factors them out . Thanks
there isn’t one stat for doing that. there is fielding independent pitching which tries to eliminate things out of the pitcher’s control (like bad defense and batted ball location …etc) but to figure out how much a pitcher’s bullpen blew up his ERA you’d have to go and look at the game logs and/or look at the inherited base runners allowed by the pen on that arm’s starts.
Thanks. Don’t you think that would be a valuable stat to have? Some pitchers may get a 1/2 point or more ERA just because of a lousy bullpen.
I do check back on play-by-play transcripts to see if the pen failed. As a Tiger fan, it did often.
well, one thing you can always do is look at how the team’s bullpen was ranked and that can give you some idea of hiw much a starter was impacted. (or just use FIP which takes into account K’s,walks and home runs only)
Is Justin Masterson getting the same deal? They were arguably the same pitcher last season.
Shark had a 4.96 ERA and a 4.23 FIP over 214 innings for 2.7 WAR, Masterson had a 5.61 ERA with a 4.89 FIP over 59 innings for -0.2 WAR. so , they weren’t even close to being the same pitcher.
No way he was offered 100m and didn’t take it. I don’t believe a word of it.
Unless it’s $100M for 6-7 years. That’s a hair over $14M-16.667M annual average. I think he wants $16-17M aav, but on fewer years so he can re-prove himself and then ink another big contract in another 4 years or so. He doesn’t have many IP on his arm, so a 4 year $68M deal I think would be in his best interests….. unless he has no faith in himself bouncing back. If he averages about 200-210 IP the next 4 years that still only puts him at about 1,800 IP in his career as a 35 year old after those 4 years…. or about only 300 more innings pitched than what David Price already has on his arm today (counting postseason innings). If he returns to being a solid #3 or even #2 SP over those 4 years he could still get an offer entering his age 35 season in the neighborhood of 4 years and $90-100M. Not too shabby. I figure in 4 years a solid 2 or 3 SP will be getting paid north of $20M anyways, so $22.5-25M won’t be too crazy, even for a guy entering his age 35 season. That low mielage is his meal ticket. Getting $17M over 4 years now isn’t exactly starving money. Especially for a guy with a current career ERA just over 4.00. If he can lock down 4 seasons with an ERA over than span of 3.50ish he’ll get his money. If I was his agent this is what I’d be telling him at least. Maybe even convincing him to take a 3 year deal with a mutual option on that 4th year. If he does that he really could see the money flood gates open. Again, it’s all about how much faith he has in himself. Personally, I think he could be that 3.50ish ERA quality pitcher with a WHIP in the 1.10s. But we live in the “pay me now” era of the game. Almost NO ONE opts for less money now… for the big payoff in the end.
I knew the Giants were desperate for pitching…but wow. Surely, not all of that is guaranteed
Hope it’s the Cubs but may be too rich for the front offices blood.
Why would you hope it’s the Cubs? If they couldn’t get Zimmermann who is a way better pitcher for only $10M more why would you want it to be them? It reeks of a similar situation they were in about 3 years ago when they refused to give Anibal Sanchez $16M a year and instead gave Edwin Jackson $13M a year. So it does have me worried. They have shown they do overpay when they miss out on better players. I hope they have learned from their mistakes though.
I wouldn’t count AZ out though they certainly have money and need to throw at a starter.
The Shark could be a good pick for a contender. He has the 26 best WAR over the last 2 years, and the 24 best over the last 3 years. He had a down year last year which could be a red flag.
The fact you rely so much on WAR is a red flag. It’s an assumption not a stat. Most useless bit of info way too many people overuse. Same with defensive runs saved…… there’s no way of knowing for sure how many runs saved a player should get credit or get knocked for. I like sabermetric stats….. just not when they’re assumption stats formulated by using other assumption stats.
so you only like to cherry pick saber stats is what you mean.
No, I only use ones based on actual fact…. not assumptions. Crazy, I know. The fact people trumpet WAR this and WAR that or DRS this and DRS that as their sole argument is more evidence of them cherry picking than anything. WAR has gotten so overused and misused it has become pretty much the only “stat” people use to support their argument or value a player….. ignoring the fact that the very definition of WAR says it is nothing more than an assumption. Do people honestly believe a player like….. Jason Heyward provided the Cardinals 6.5 more wins than this mysterious replacement level player? I seriously doubt his defense makes him THAT much more valuable. He’s a great defensive OFer, but offensively….. good, but not great. The Cardinals had Holiday, Grichuk, and Piscotty as their other main 3 OFers….. all of which produced more than adequately in 2015. You can’t tell me that Heyward was worth 6.5 wins than a replacement player for the Cardinals. Heyward being a 6.5 WAR player tells me that with him out of the lineup the Cards would’ve “only” won 93-94 games. Bull. S***.
It is an arbitrary number to me that tries to attach a number to a player’s intangibles which is just dumb IMO and impossible to accurately do. I see so many posts on here that only site a player’s WAR as the basis for people’s opinions on players. To me that is flat out ignorance. And right now I am getting a ton of crap for this, but in about 3 years I am going to laugh at everyone who thought the Braves got the short end of the stick in the Simmons trade. Why? Because I think Simmons and his .250 BA and .300 OBP will be nothing but a platoon/late inning defensive replacement in a couple years. He is awful offensively….. but people ignore that solely because of his (assumed) “defensive runs saved” and (assumed) wins above replacement…. which is only high because of said “DRS” and solid defense. He is a one dimensional player. Those rarely last long at the major league level. He has to improve leaps and bounds offensively to hold onto the everyday starter gig IMO…. unless he is on an offensive powerhouse team. I wouldn’t consider the LAA an offensive powerhouse team. This year was Simmons’ 2nd best offensive year…… he hit .265 with a .321 OBP and a pathetic .660 OPS. Six. Six. Zero OPS. That is bench worthy….. and this was his second BEST year. He doesn’t even have 10 HR potential in Atlanta and is going to hitter unfriendly LAA, so his 5 HR power is about what to expect. He most be quick on the base paths, right? Nope. Has about 5 SB potential. So people think he has all this value because of an assumed value that was derived from other assumed values…… but let’s ignore his .250 BA, .300 OBP, and .360 SLG 5 HR power and 5 SB potential he’s put up for his career across 3.33 seasons. And I’m the one cherry picking stats. The neo-sabermetric noob fan are the ones cherry picking stats. Even if the main pitching prospect the Braves got for him only pans out to be a solid #4 quality SP that is still better than a guy who hits at the bottom of the order and has excellent defensive skills. BTW, defensive prowess is usually the first thing to go in players so Simmons’ bat needs to heat up quick otherwise he is DEFINITELY headed for the bench in 3-4 years.
Here’s another example of how erroneous WAR is. Here are 2 stat lines and the WAR attached to said player. They’re pitchers.
13-10, 2.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 3.57 FIP, 5.7 WAR
11-12, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.92 FIP, 3.1 WAR
Despite player 2 allowing fewer guys to reach base (WHIP) and when defense is removed from the equation was nearly half a run better, he was worth 2.5 fewer wins than player 1…… again, Bull. S***. Who are the players….. John Lackey and Jon Lester. Had Lester had the defense behind him that Lackey had his almighty “WAR” would’ve likely been over 6…. so how on earth does WAR tell you anything concrete about a player? Answer? It tells you very little…. other than the fact there are people out there who go great lengths to come up with random numbers to tack onto a player. This sounds like me dogging the guy who came up with WAR. Not really. It’s more me dogging the clueless fans who think WAR and DRS are absolute facts. These are usually the fans who think they are so much better than other fans because they THINK they know what WAR and DRS actually are. My tip, if you don’t even have the slightest clue on how to calculate a “stat” then you probably shouldn’t use it. Go to fangraphs…. there is a link to literally a whole page and then some on how they calculate WAR. then there is the fact that certain sites calculate their own WAR values differently than each other. So a player has a different WAR value depending on what site you go to. So how on earth is that even accurate? Jason Heyward: baseball ref: 6.5 WAR, fangraphs: 6 WAR. etc.
WAR =/= replacement for that team. A replacement is hypothetical player. The fact that Grich and Piscotty produced more than 0 WAR eliminates your ramblings about whether he is x wins better than their replacement.
Also not sure why you use bWAR in your example (fWAR has lester as more valuable than Lackey) and then tell people to go to fangraphs to look up the definition. That seems misleading since you aren’t using their valuation.
Oh. my. god. You just used “hypothetical” and followed it up with how “it eliminates your ramblings.” So hypotheticals (assumptions) is enough for you to value a player. Got it. People are so clueless nowadays it is nauseating. Do I have to give you the definition of hypothetical. or estimate. or assumption. Because all of those words are used in the definition of WAR. WAR is essentially a YELP review on a player. Take it for what it’s worth.
You may want to read what the stats are even trying to say before you go off on your rant. They define what a replacement level player is for the context of their stat. If you don’t understand that, or refuse to educate yourself on what it is comparing, that’s your fault.
Additionally, if you are going to use fip to make an argument, why are you relying on bWAR when fWAR is the one that stresses fip more.
It’s not a stats fault if you don’t understand what it means.
I use FIP with a laundry list of other stats. Whereas it is commonplace for wannabe educated fans just use WAR pretty much as the sole stat to value a player. Go through the comments on all the articles. You’ll see a TON of people just using WAR as the basis of their argument…… much like the argument/discussion we are having right now.
Here’s more from Fangraphs on their explanation of WAR:
WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR, but it is pretty safe to say they are at least an All-Star level player and potentially an MVP.
Again, “estimate”….. “imperfections”…….. “assumptions”…….. “approximation.” Then the fact it says a 5-7 WAR player is a “safe” bet to potentially be an MVP caliber player. Tell that to the likes of Heyward…. or AJ Pollock…. or Kevin friggin Kiermaier (who had a ridiculous 7.4 WAR with his .260ish BA and sub .300 OBP….. sane people would hardly consider that even to be in the conversation of MVP considerations and he clearly isn’t All-Star caliber). Kevin Kiermaier is just more likely to be in triple A or out of baseball in 4 years than he is to ever be considered for an MVP. Again, it goes to show how flawed WAR is. Kevin Kiermaier at a 7.4 WAR is laughable. Going by WAR alone which oh so many of you do, Kiermaier was the 3rd best center fielder in 2015. If a player who can’t get on base or provide much of any sort of offensive production for that matter is considered the 3rd most valuable player at his position then baseball has gone downhill fast. WAR seemingly places waaaaaaaaay more emphasis on defense than anything else. Because as far as offensive production I’d say Kiermaier was one of the worst CFers last year…. but hey, he’s good on defense so let’s give him $100+M when he hits free agency in a few years. And people wonder why offense has become sooooo bad in MLB and why pitching is so ridiculously good all of a sudden.
As far as you saying I don’t understand WAR…. you’re right. And odds are neither do you. It is a complete mystery to how they calculate it, because it depends on so many other assumptions and how whichever site you’re using uses different criteria to come up with WAR. WAR and other variations of WAR and other “stats” that rely on WAR to get to their number I take with a grain of salt. I might use them but if I do it is usually with a ton of other actual stats that are based on fact rather than assumptions.
But if you think the likes of Kiermaier is better than, say, Charlie Blackmon and his 2.3 WAR go right ahead. I’ll take the guy though who hits .290, .340 OBP, 15-20 HRs, 35+ SBs, and has an .800 OPS. I would tout his defense too, he only made 3 errors last year and had 9 assists and 2 DPs to Kiermaier’s 5 errors but 15 assists and 3 DPs and supposedly better range.. Blackmon is NOT a liability on defense going by the numbers yet somehow he was a negative defensive WAR. Only thing Kiermaier trumps Blackmon on is his range in the OF and somehow that translates to a 7.4 WAR and Blackmon only has a 2.4 WAR. Stupid.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic.
fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
Key word in that sentence, “attempt.”
Here’s the rest of the definition, you know the parts where it says “you should always use more than just WAR” and “WAR offers and ESTIMATE…..”
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.
By this definition alone and the fact it clearly states it “attempts” to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?”
The fact that a universal replacement player is used is BS. Example, I’ll use Jason Heyward again. He’s supposedly a 6-6.5 WAR player. But look at what his replacements were. Grichuk or Piscotty or Holiday or Jay or Bourjos or Pham. All of those guys are solid replacements for Heyward. How is it far to say those players aren’t at least close to as good as Heyward and that Heyward is 6.5 wins better than them. Then look at Fowler. Who was his backup….. Matt Szczur??? Using a universal replacement player is a joke IMO. There are soooo many variables to determine how valuable a player is too his team it’s incalculable IMO. Also, baseball is such a team sport to label a guy with so much importance is ridiculous. Also, just by the definition alone it sounds like WAR is how important that player was to that certain team. If Heyward goes to a team with a completely inept offense around him and his WAR drops to, say, 3-4 how can one say he is less valuable when the deduction in WAR is more likely due to his supporting cast sucking hardcore. WAR is so filled with holes I can’t believe how popular it has gotten over the last 5 years. It’s like sabermetrics just poops out new stats and ignorant fans just run with it because they were told it is an important stat. No one is as big of a homer and noob with sabermetrics than Brian Kenny on MLB Net. That big headed brillo padded hair having SOB is so horrible when evaluating players. He is the kind of guy who says things like Andrelton Simmons is as good as Carlos Correa…. because each are 4 WAR players. When it doesn’t take a genius to realize that Correa is clearly waaaaay better than Simmons. Where Simmons is awful offensively but well above average defensively, one could say Correa is average defensively and well above average offensively. There. That’s it. That’s all you need to know on a players worth or value. There are pretty much 2 aspects to baseball…. offense and defense. How are you at both of them. Really? Awesome…. that’s all i need to know. WAR and DRS to an extent tell me almost nothing about a player. Call me an idiot, whatever. I just find it hard to put faith in a number that even has it in its own definition that it is just an attempt to put a number on a player’s worth to his team……. so why people think that ESTIMATED worth to that team the player WAS on will translate to their team is beyond me.
if it’s a big market team my reaction would be analogous to the Red Sox signing of Price. he’s a terrific pitcher, but they paid too much for too long–and it doesn’t matter to them, because they have the money. i don’t think shark is a good value, because he’s never been a consistent performer, but if you have money to burn, you are buying a live arm at a hefty price.
This. Is. Insanity.
It just shows that these teams are making a lot of money.
Bill James had Samardzija rated as the 16th best pitcher as of August 1st of last year. He had a terrible August and September. I was hoping the Cubs could get him for $80 million but it looks like the cost of poker has just gone up. I doubt the Cubs will give him $100 million and lose a draft pick.
Lets see. What team might think JS is worth a 100MM contract? Most GM’s watch the market and would probably use Zimmermann’s signing as a guide. However, there is a GM known for signing players to long contracts (where the back end will bite them in the butt) and is new to his team and is enjoying his newfound assets. He has already signed a pitcher to a 7 yr deal, and traded a chunk of the farm system for a closer. Plus his new team already signed a mediocre pitcher that he, himself, got rid of, to a 4/83MM contract. Could it be Boston? Compared to Porcello, Sam is worth 100MM.
Do yourself a favor and don’t use an extension that most people agreed was questionable at the time and looks even worse now as a guide.
It better not be from the Cubs. If so, my god. How many times do you have to learn your lesson from sitting on your hands when the better players are available. Granted Anibal Sanchez has been banged up since signing his deal with Detroit, but the Cubs lost out on him because they didn’t want to give him $16M per season. So what did they do???? Sign Edwin Jackson for $13M instead. Look how that turned out. They’re paying him $13M this year NOT to play on their team. They missed out on Zimmermann. They missed out on Price. Looks like they’re going to miss out on Greinke as it’s been reported he is deciding between LA and SF. Best move IMO is just trade for pitching from rebuilding teams or teams desperate for hitting a la White Sox. I don’t care what White Sox fans say but a Castro, Almora, Vogelbach, and Candelario for Jose Quintana deal is more than fair. Then trade Soler, McKinney, and Zagunis to Atlanta for Shelby Miller. Yeah, that’s 7 players for 2, but those are 2 SOLID… .YOUNG starting pitchers under team control for a good amount of time. Dumping Castro and Soler is about $11M off the table, but adding Quintana and Miller is taking on $11M for 2016 so it in no way increases team payroll. Yes, the Cubs give up some top notch prospects mainly in Almora and McKinney…. but it’s not like they don’t have a stable full of stellar OF prospects. They still have Happ and Dewees they just drafted and both are ranked in their top 10 prospect list. Then there is new addition they literally stole from SF in Eddy Martinez. And then there is 19 year old Eloy Jimenez….. in other words, they’re still loaded in OF prospects. Since this is a wash in terms of payroll it still leaves them a ton of money to pursue free agents, and when I say that I mean offering Heyward a 10-year $200M deal. I know that scares people but there would obviously be an opt out clause after 5 years, after Heywards age 30 season. I say you structure the deal so it pays him out about $17M aav for the first 5 years, and then $23M aav the last 5. Odds are if he keeps up what he did last year and sees his 20+ HR power return he’d likely opt out because he’d be a shoe in for more than 5 years and $115M by the time 2021 rolls around. So essentially it would be a 5 year $85M deal….. not too shabby for a lead-off hitter and a CFer, two needs they desperately need (pretty much their only dire need). Then they can go after super utility guy in Zobrist. MLBTR has him predicted to get a 3 year $51M deal for a $17M aav. Pretty steep, but hey….. they can afford it. Then I’d like to see them trade Hammel for Papelbon. I know everyone is led to believe he is a cancer to any team because he choked an arrogant player and put him in his place in Harper (I loved seeing that), but he is a stellar reliever who might be a cancer. reuniting with Lester can only help…. right. He’s only signed for 2016 so it isn’t much of a gamble. Only having to give up Hammel is pretty much a steal IMO. It’s been reported that Papelbon is “untradeable” because of his choking out of Harper. I can’t believe no one would want a guy who pitched to a 2.13 ERA and 1.02 WHIP last year. He’s still dominant. Not only do the Nats get rid of him and opens up a spot for them to go after Chapman, but it also shaves $2M off their books (Hammel $9M, P-bon $11M). Adding Papelbon would give the Cubs quite possibly one of the best bullpens in the game. Team payroll if they do my ideal moves would be right about $140M. $153 when you throw in Edwin Jackson’s dead money. Here’s MY 2016 Cubs….
Lineup
CF Heyward
LF Coghlan/Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
RF Schwarber
SS Russell
C Montero
SP
2B Baez
Bench
C Ross
2B/3B La Stella
SS/2B/3B Herrera
cOF/2B/1B Zobrist/Coghlan
OF Szczur
Rotation
Arrieta
Lester
Quintana
Miller
Hendricks
Bullpen
CL Rondon/Papelbon
SUa Rondon/Papelbon
SUb Strop
SUc Ramirez
RP Grimm
RP Wood
RP CJ (Carl) Edwards
That bullpen is lights out from the 6th inning on. Ramirez 6th, Strop 7th, P-bon or Rondon in the 8th, P-bon or Rondon in the 9th….. with very capable reliever in Grimm as insurance and Wood showed he’s no slouch out of the pen last year either. Not going to lie….. this team gives me a chub.
While I do agree with you on the eval of shark the trade offers, while legitimate, may not ever happen due to the price of pitching you currently see. Those are both very valid trades for both teams but the inflation on price will see their prices go above that unfortunately making trades seem quite difficult to pull off to be honest. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go after those guys though!
What free agents sign for shouldn’t effect trade value. The fact that the Sox would potentially get 4 guys who could be everyday players in their lineup for 1 pitcher and the Braves getting 1 solid, definite ML OFer and possibly 2 in McKinney, setting up their corner outfield spots potentially for the next 5 years+ for 1 starting pitcher is also more than fair. Soler just had his first full season. Had it not been for nagging injuries who knows what he could’ve done… he still managed a solid first full season. Then the fact he blew it wide open in the playoffs intrigues everybody as well (.474 BA, .600 OBP, 1.105 SLG this year in the playoffs…… that’s a 1.705 OPS in the playoffs BTW….. nasty). Also, rumors that the Braves are open to trading Miller and are said to be interested in Soler makes it all that more likely IMO. Throwing in not only Cubs’ top 3 prospect McKinney in there but also a top 10 cubs prospect in Zagunis pushes the deal over the top IMO. Personally I think if the Cubs offer this trade it gets accepted tomorrow. Only question is how stubborn Reinsdorf will be on trading with the bigger show in town in the Cubs. Giving them Castro, Vogelbach, Almora, and Candelario potentially addresses 4 major needs for that team. 2B or SS in Castro who is as good if not better than what Ramirez was for them at SS and waaaaaay better than anything the south side has been trotting out to 2B. Vogelbach has serious power potential and shows excellent plate discipline in the minors. He is a top 10 1B prospect in all of baseball. He is already IMO a huge upgrade over Adam Laroche and has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 30+ HR power and could flirt with 40. He was hitting 500+ foot bombs as a high schooler. Almora, while not an OBP machine, should hit for a decent average in the .270-.290 range if he pans out offensively. He has only about 10 HR and 10 SB potential but he is already considered a future perennial gold glove caliber OFer. Then Candelario, the throw in as I like to put it. It’s no secret in Chicago that 3B has been a black hole for the Sox for quite some time. Joe Crede has been the best 3Bman for them since their current manager was their 3rd baseman, Robin Ventura. Joe friggin Crede. and he was only good for like 4 years…. if you consider a .260 BA and .308 OBP over that span good. Candelario hasn’t been a very high prospect in the Cubs system. He just had a hot fall league though so his name is somewhat hot right now. I say throw him in the deal and maybe he becomes serviceable for the Sox at 3B. This is definitely not just a quantity for quality trade by the Cubs either, Castro is an All-Star player, he’s been there 3 out of 6 times in his career…. and yes he has the capability to go there again, another .300 BA and a pace for 15 or more HRs could get him there again. Vogelbach has All-Star potential and so does Almora who will be carried there by his defense and fairly high BA possibilities. Vogelbach could make his debut right out of spring training too so saying they only get 1 ML ready bat for Quintana isn’t necessarily true. If not blocked by Rizzo I think he would’ve climbed through the minor league ranks much faster. I don’t think he has any triple A time under his belt but that has never stopped the WS before. He’s shown solid potential the last two years in spring training.
So again, I don’t think what free agents sign for has any effect on controllable players’ trade value. If anything it lowers it, because it shows teams are more than content waiting for players in question to hit free agency and outbid the team the FA is leaving. The Braves have almost no shot at re-signing Miller when he hits free agency in 3 years. If you can get Soler, a top OF prospect, and a mediocre OF prospect for him now… you take it. Soler is a serious threat for a .280 BA, .340 OBP, and 25+ HR power. Pretty good if you ask me. McKinney also shows serious promise. He hit .300, .371, .454 this year in the minors. He could develop into a 20HR guy but currently only shows maybe 15 HR power in about a 155 game span. He’s got warning track power though as he was on pace to hit about 45 doubles this year had he played about 155 games….. roughly a full season’s worth of games at the ML level.
This is what these players were worth before these free agents signed and it is still what they’re worth after they’ve signed. If they want more then they aren’t serious about trading them.
I think you misunderstood me, the inflation on the cost of pitching overall has an effect on the market for all pitchers not that those packages are poor. If Price signed for 120 then Quintana would get nothing in a package but seeing consistent contracts pushing 18-20mm+AAV a guy making 6mm AAV will have immense value in a trade if they share close levels in production. There was an article I read earlier regarding Chris Sale in comparison to Price and their overall cost and control makes Sale essentially an absolute steal for the team that would trade for him because they get Price production but save close to 60mm+, if Price opts out after 4 years, that flexibility is absurd and the prospect price would be unheard of. Quintana may not be on that level but as a borderline no. 1 and extremely good no.2 you’re looking at quite the hefty package once other teams begin to bid. Like you said the money would free up a Heyward signing for the cubs, that flexibility is crucial and other teams know that as well. Cost awareness and control are huge right now with the money being thrown around so to throw out that FA has no affect on trades doesn’t make much sense to me and you’re free to disagree with that. While I do agree with those packages that they are fine and I could see them being accepted you have to account for the money pitchers are getting on the FA market because if a team doesn’t want to pay that price in dollars they will pay the price in prospects at an inflated cost because other teams will be pushing for the same players.
I get what you’re saying, but both the white Sox and Braves have a ton of pitching prospects to replace both pitchers. Trading those pitchers away for a nice position player haul makes sense because they potentially have just as cost effective replacements. Holding onto Quintana or Miller just because of how cost effective they are makes no sense when they have a ton of other young, controllable pitching prospects who could be just as effective. They’d get more trading said player than trading one of those potentially just as good pitching prospects. That to me is why free agent contracts don’t have much say in another player’s trade value.
I might have misunderstood what you said but it sounds like you think guys like Miller, Quintana, Ross, Salazar, etc. just had their trade value go up because of what other FA pitchers are getting in free agency. I have to disagree, just because no one is going to give up more than 2-3 solid players for 1 player. That was the case before these signings and is still the case after. It’s no secret pitching is more valuable which is why even before Zimmermann and Price signed Quintana worth 1 ML ready bat and a few high level prospects. His cost effectiveness is pretty much neutralized in the trade I propose because despite popular belief Castro is on a pretty team friendly deal himself. Then adding near ML ready talent in Vogelbach and Almora AND throwing in a player like Candelario gives them 3 other league minimum players for the next few years once they hit the majors.
If that isn’t enough to fetch a high quality pitcher in a trade then no one will trade their young pitchers ever again. Teams would just give up way less for a promising pitching prospect like Maybe just Castro and Vogelbach for Carson Fulmer on the white sox. That’s a ML SS/2B and a high level prospect for a high level pitching prospect who hasn’t seen pro baseball past high A ball and only has 23 minor league innings pitched under his belt. The ceiling is sky high for Fulmer, but he’d garner way less in a trade than Quintana…… which is why Quintana is the likely trade chip. Again, no one is going to give up more than what they would have before the FA signings….. or I should say, no SANE GM should give up more for the same player they were targeting before the FA signings just because of them.
I think I get what you’re saying. But if what you’re saying were true then no one would trade a young, controllable pitcher ever again because no one would offer up the talent level of players you think that now more affordable pitcher is worth. Let’s say Vogelbach and Almora do pan out and live up to the hype around them, and both make their debut in 2016. That means in about 7 years they’ll be free agents and asking for the $20M aav contracts themselves. Whereas Quintana, if he keeps pitching the way he has for the next 5 years, will be asking for the $25 to maybe $30M aav about 2 years prior to Almora and V-bach hitting FA. By that time solid #2 SPs could be going for north of $25M. So in reality the Cubs could potentially be giving up way more in terms of monetary value than the Sox in a Cubs-Sox swap of players. The Sox would have 5 years of solid production from 3 guys on their offense for 1 solid SP to the Cubs. So I guess what one can say is that since pitching is already so valued, we’ve already seen the high asking price go up league-wide. It’s just that it has already happened, I don’t see it going up anymore than the current state though.
They lost out on Anibal because he gave the tigers the chance to match any offer.
I know the market is going up each year…but paying Shark 100 million is a HUGE mistake waiting to happen.IMO, he should be in the Shields range. 4 and 75.
agreed, live in chicago now so I keep up with the Cubs and Sox and Shark reminds me a LOT of the edwin jackson hype train that ended once he ended up on the cardinals. Projection and upside have too much value now I’d top out at 75 if I was a GM. There is just more value out there than Shark id that is the price
my guess is between the cubs or the angels
My guess is the yanks
i think it is the Cubs. I think time running out and things are moving so fast now. The Cubs aren’t F$#King around no more. After Price was off the Table and Zimmermann sign, Grez will sign in the next 48 to 72 hours and Cuteo probably end up a Diamondback or Card. – The Cubs aren’t haveing any fast luck with a trade w the Padres or Braves and or Indians like the want, they are starting to panic a bit, they lose out on the Shark, then its Mean n Lackey they have to sign. This is why waiting not good. I bet it’s the Cubs…
Chen, Kazmir, Maeda…all options that are not paying shark 100m.
Hey, it was only a matter of time before someone’s agent floated a fake contract offer this offseason. I mean, we had Headley and Shields last year. It happens. It’s a thing. It’s out there.
I have little doubt that someone has already offer Samardzija $100MM. I honestly believe that when we look back on the 2016 FA class, he will be one of the best values. He was in a difficult situation last year with a pitching coach that was not in his corner and that is a huge deal for a pitcher. Having one of the league’s worst defenses behind him certainly did not help things either. Samardzija has the skills to be a great SP and he has not lost those skills.
Don Cooper is one of the better pitching coaches in baseball. If you don’t make it work with him, I question you, not him.
I think the Shark’s agent made this offer.
Jeff Samardzija’s ERAs over the past 4 seasons:
2012: 3.81
2013: 4.34
2014: 2.99
2015: 4.96
But tell me more about how 2015 was the outlier year and not 2014.
Jeff Samardzija’s FIPs/xFIPs over the past 4 seasons:
2012: 3.55/3.38
2013: 3.77/3.45
2014: 3.20/3.07
2015: 4.23/4.31
2014 and 2015 are both outliers in this small sample size, but 2015 seems to be more out of the norm. I still wouldn’t sign him for that kind of money though.
I though he would get more than 5 years 80 million. Even though he’s had only one really good season, there’s a lot of teams who see him in that B level starting pitcher range. Because most teams are/were priced out on Grienke and Price, that leaves more suitors for the mid-range guys which should drive up his price.
who would offer that much money for that bum – white sox fan
This guy is so overrated.
better not be from the Cardinals, especially after they got outbid on Price and missed out on Zimmerman
Joe Kelly had a better 2015 ERA.
wow 20M seems like an aweful lot for him
I think he could be worth it low miles and has a pretty solid strike out rate. That being said he should be an add to a team that has some solid pitching already like Pittsburgh not someone who is hoping that last year was an anomaly and not who he is now.
I would have this guy on my team in a heartbeat.
For 12 million/year.
This is gonna be a serious overpay. Shark is good but it looks like he’ll always be inconsistent.
Shark was ineffective for the white sox do to poor defense and also didn’t see eye to eye with Don Cooper. For those stating he wasn’t the worst pitcher for the white sox your correct. However that also should be a given when your starting John Danks, whom is just bad. Ask yourself if you trust starting Shark in game 3 of a playoff series. If you do then he’s your number 3. My opinion is he is more of a #4. You can do far worse on a lot of staffs.
I’d rather have Iwakuma
If Jeff had a $100 million offer what stopped him from signing it?
Me things his agent is spreading some crazy stuff.
Am I the only person who thinks Shark isn’t worth that kind of commitment?
Nope. Just read up and down these comments. Nearly every one thinks Shark getting that much is crazy
Come on, Yankees!
Samardzija is a 3. A good 3. Can’t go by his career year of 2014. The WhiteSox infield defense was fine by mid-May when they brought up Sanchez for 2nd and Saladino at 3rd. Problem is that he’s a fly ball pitcher, and Sox OF defense was atrocious (except when Trayce Thompson played in August and September). He was a bad fit. Don’t know why Sox traded for him in the first place.
The problem was that those fly balls were generally hit VERY hard and left the park way too frequently.
Samardzija’s reps are throwing zingers out through the grapevine and seeing who bites, in my opinion. It seems it’s a tactic to drive offers up.
Lets see, His AGENT is saying he has a $100 million offer on the table that he hasn’t accepted even though that is $20 million more than anyone predicted. Right, sure.
Right now no team has even hinted they have made him an offer. Maybe he does have that offer on the table, but I think its more likely that his agent is stretching the truth more than a little. Maybe some GM said the only way we could pay him that kind of money is if we stretched it out over 7-8 years and the agent is now saying we have a $100 million deal on the table. Or maybe it IS a $100 million deal IF the team options for years 6 and 7 are picked up. That last one is the only one that is plausible. Shark has not shown that he is that good of a pitcher.
The good news is, unlike most (potentially) made up offers, we should actually get an answer. Samardzija has made it clear throughout his career that he is going for the most dollars he can get. He buys completely into the union’s notion that taking every dollar increases the salaries of everybody else and he considers himself a good union man.
So if it turns out that he doesn’t get a $100MM deal, we know it was a lie. If he gets a $100MM deal, we’ll know who it was. And if he gets more, well, we’ll known who was crazy enough to do that too.
Or that “100M” offer was something like 5/50 guaranteed with 50 incentive/vesting/options or something
Please for the love of God sign in St Louis
I would give Shark the same 100 million contract Tim Wakefield got from the Sox, 4 million for the first year with 24 club options of 4 million each.
You win.
If the Shark really does have a 100M deal out there, I would guess 6 years and 102-105M (AKA the Homer Bailey deal) with a heavily backloaded structure and maybe an opt out after 2-3 years. His durability is going to be unquestioned and he’s unlikely to bottom out as a bad pitcher. Dude is probably the most athletic pitcher in baseball bar none; I thought he would be a STUD receiver in the NFL after watching him ball out at Notre Dame.
I’m not seeing the value other teams Are offering Jeff.. He has a career ERA of 4.09.That’s not someone I would spend 18m a year on
This is pure Craziness.Last season ERA 4.96. I don’t care what kind of defense was behind him. You don’t offer 18m for that production
I think the biggest appeal of what he offers is the relatively low mileage on his arm. This mitigates the concern for a sudden drop in velocity over the years. Also, some of his struggles in 2015 can be explained by worst luck, so it’s safe to say that they should not repeat themselves going forward. Although he may not match the numbers he produced in 2014, I expect him to pitch at least closer to his career norms.
Fake. Just like Headley and Shields last year.
I can’t recall any pitcher produce worse results and still be so fauned after. If every scout says the guys ceiling is so high that only God can see it, fine, I don’t disagree, but at some point you make a player earn it.
Also, as for the rumor that the Cubs are pursuing this toothless shark, I think Cubs fans should be respulsed by the idea. He left the Cubs and turned down a good contract offer despite poor production then too because he wanted to go to a winning team.
Why doesn’t he take it? I don’t think he’s gonna get more than that.
Smardzjia 100 million vs Miller $20 million? What to do with the $80 million saved? Heyward maybe or Cespedes or Upton or Cueto, yeah thats it. Do we want Smardzjia or Cueto and Miller.
If Cueto declined 6/120, why is he signing for 80?
Obviously he’ll take less to play with the Cubbies.
If this is true, he should accept the offer. If it’s not, he should fire his agent for fishing numbers instead of getting a deal done based on his book of work and abilities. Nuff said.
$18 million/year is the “going rate” for garbage?
Please stay away from the cubs. We need a legit #3 not a 4. He was average at best with the cubs and terrible with the white Sox. The only thing that was bulls*** was when he was traded to Oakland 10 days before the all star game he wasn’t allowed to rep his league. He should have been a al replacement. It was dumb having him in the dugout with a generic uniform. Like I said don’t go to the cubs they need to sign Cueto.
Shark is not worth 100million. Maybe 60 mil for 5 years.