In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents. Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.
Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy. These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company. (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015. In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)
Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names. As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes. Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.
The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents. Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation. Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play. Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.
With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract? (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)
Idk but they better hurry up
I’m curious on which teams give Ian Kennedy a multi year deal with a QO attached.
Since his breakout season, he has a 4.19 ERA, pitching most of that in Petco.
Maybe a team like the Twins if the price comes down. They seem like they’re in limbo of going for it or not going for it, so they might take a peak if the price is right imo.
He has actually pitched fine at the all the NL west stadiums throughout his career. 3.68 at Petco, 2.99 at ATT, 3.75 at Dodger Stadium, 3.19 at Coors, 3.71 at Chase. Last year’s #’s at Petco look bad but it was largely due to 3 games where he allowed 6,7,and 8 ER. He’s a durable pitcher with a career 3.98/3.99 career. ERA/FIP. He’s a solid mid rotation pitcher. He can probably get 3/40M+
The Giants should just offer Upton 7/140 with an opt out after two years. Guarantee 2/44 and go all in for 2016/2017. The Dodgers are probably going to own that division for years to come anyway. The Giants have a good core for going all in right now. Screw it. (Which is of course a brilliant GM philosophy that never has negative repercussions. Also, it’s not my money.)
Upton is on record saying that he doesn’t enjoy hitting at AT&T Park.
Taking into account the sky high prices and terms, (no trade and opt out clauses), that SP are getting this offseason, I don’t blame Kazmir for holding out for a 4th year. If he’s patient enough, someone will get desperate enough to give it to him.
Think it’d be Maeda since no other team than the Dodgers seem to be after him.
If the dodgers lose out on Maeda, what will they do?
Tell us it was all part of the Secret Plan to Win the World Series.
He also has to sign by Jan. 8th I believe
Yes, I voted Maeda for this reason alone.
Am I the only person would rather take Gallardo than kazmir, kennedy? This isn’t really relevant to the article, but as a jays fan, I’m still salty about the happ deal. At 12m a year, we could have gotten leake, Gallardo and kazmir for a few more million per year. Its just mind boggling to me how we cheap out on pitching with our offence. Its just mind blowing…hopefully happ repeats his pirates showing, but I’m not holdin my breath
Or kazmir, not all three.. Didn’t mean to write “and”… we really need an edit button
I’m a Blue Jays fan too and I don’t like this signing at all. I would feel much better penciling in Gallardo then happ
Rule out Chen and Kennedy. Rule out any Scott Boras clients in these polls. Boras will wait until late March if he has to.
I think it’s hilarious that no contenders are interested in Cespedes including the team he helped take to the World Series! He’s going to end up returning to Detroit, the team that traded him, and never return to the World Series. He really out priced himself. LMFAO
Royals need to pick up somebody with a big bat like Chris Davis or Justin Upton but they need decent pitching as well like Kazmir or Chen
Right