It’s easy to buy into Spring Training hype, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes in his latest column as he looks at some of the major Red Sox storylines heading into camp. While the Sox have drawn mostly approval for their offseason dealings, Cafardo warns that pundits were saying the same thing last year prior to Boston’s last place season. Here’s some more from Cafardo’s piece…
- The Astros have asked about Tyler Clippard. Houston has already made a couple of big offseason moves to reinforce their bullpen in trading for Ken Giles and re-signing Tony Sipp, and adding Clippard would only further deepen a relief corps that also includes Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, Pat Neshek and Josh Fields. Clippard’s market was fairly quiet for much of the winter, though as Cafardo notes, things have started to heat up for the veteran righty with at least six teams (including the Rays and Diamondbacks) showing interest.
- Matt Thornton is drawing interest from around six teams, though the veteran lefty may have to settle for a minor league contract. Thornton turned 39 in September and has a 1.98 ERA over 77 1/3 innings in 2014 and 2015, though with only a 5.9 K/9 in that stretch, ERA predictors such as xFIP (4.19) and SIERA (3.79) are less enthused with his performance over the last two years. The Braves, Pirates and Twins were all rumored to have some interest in Thornton earlier this offseason.
- The Rays are likely to keep their pitching, despite “quite a bit of interest” from other teams about Alex Cobb.
- Teams have considered signing Cliff Lee, though they’re wary of giving him a contract in the range of $6MM-$8MM (plus incentives).
- Dan Uggla’s agent says that teams have called about his client, though no side has made any commitments. The veteran infielder is another player who is likely to only find a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite.
- “It’s just so slow out there” for the large number of veteran players still on the market, one agent tells Cafardo. This offseason has been the apex of a growing trend in recent years for teams to spend on a few high-salaried stars and then rely on young, cheap talent for the rest of the roster rather than spend more on established veterans. This not only goes for the rank-and-file veterans looking for bench jobs but also for would-be starters like Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, all of whom have had their markets slowed by the qualifying offer-attached draft compensation required to sign them. “The [draft-pick] compensation issue is a factor, no question, and we have to do something about it with our collective bargaining talks because this is hurting good baseball players getting jobs,” the agent said.
- An AL general manager, however, implies that some agents should perhaps be a bit more realistic about their demands. “The agents are still asking for major league guarantees for players who should be grateful for major league invitations and minor league deals,” the GM said. “I hear the agents blaming the teams, but I think a lot of teams are willing to add these players. But we’re in February, and quite frankly the signings need to be on our terms at this stage of the game. Eventually, these guys will break down and sign minor deals but we’re close to spring training and there hasn’t been a lot of bend.”
It’s not hurting good baseball players getting jobs, it’s hurting their guarantee for more years. They could have had job security back in November, but they didn’t read the market right. It’d be nice to see something done to solve this, but the players are going to be asking for a lot this coming CBA and it just feels like they won’t get it.
I still think there are decent odds of a lockout in 2017, because this looks more and more like a war that’s going to be fought amongst owners than vs. players. It’s a rich market/less rich market issue and increasingly obnoxious presence of ‘redistribution’ mechanism like the QO, draft pool limits, international spending limits, etc.
There is zero chance of a lockout or strike by MLB. There’s simply too much money in the game for everyone to risk that. The game is more popular and more successful than ever. They’ll work something out. The qualifying offers are here to stay…probably will become a 2 year guarantee as opposed to one, but mostly will remain the same. Or the players can be given free agency with no ties to the draft, and MLB will get a salary cap—which will never, and should never happen.
Unless there is some edict that says the players can’t be locked out, there can’t be “zero chance” of it happening.
The best thing that could happen to baseball is a salary. It likely won’t happen, I agree with you there. But it should happen, and thats where we disagree.
I agree there likely won’t be a salary cap. I disagree with you and believe there should be a salary cap.
Why should there be a salary cap? Will having one prevent the large market teams, i.e., the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox from winning every world series? Will it help teams like the Cardinals, Royals and Rays become more competitive? The economics in baseball today—every team is dripping in money—allow everyone to compete, and those who don’t is due to poor management. Arguable the two least financial solvent teams in baseball, the Rays and Athletics, are victims of their one bad business. Both teams want (need?) new stadiums, yet don’t want to foot the bill for them. The A’s want to move into Giants territory AND have the taxpayers foot the bill. The A’s ownership could simply reach into their pockets to pay for the building of a new stadium IN Oakland, but they want to be able to charge $25 for a beer in San Jose.
Oh, wait…I think I found the reason for a salary cap. If baseball has one then they’ll lower ticket prices, the costs of cable TV will go down and WE—the fans—will feel the effects. Nah, that’s silly.
I didn’t state is as fact, I stated it as my (strong) opinion. In my opinion there is zero chance there is a lockout or a strike in MLB.
The Cubs and Dodgers win every World Series? The Cardinals and Royals aren’t competitive?
Brilliant satire – the sarcasm completely sold the underlying point and it flew right past you somehow
50/50 lockout in 2017. This going to turn into a fight amongst owners, rich vs. richer, over redistribution mechanisms (draft pools, QO, luxury tax etc). Sport probably needs to contract by 2-4 teams. Could be the healthiest development.
How is contraction even starting to address the issues mentioned? Do you really think that the players association would want to lose that many jobs? Do you think that the way sports teams net worths have sky rocketed that any of them would vote for contraction?
contraction? Why? 10 years ago maybe, when some teams were struggling (or struggling for an MLB team), but now the game is healthy and thriving financially. They’re more likely to expand—1 team per league would be great, if only to do away with incessant daily interleague play)—than contract.
Wrong Josh Fields in link
Wrong Josh Fields in the link.
Clippard would be a huge add for the Astros.
I truly do not feel sorry for the players/agents who complain about the qualifying offer hindering their appeal to potential teams. They knew the ramifications of denying it when it was originally offered. All it takes is for a few mid-tier players (Gallardo, Fowler, etc.) to accept these qualifying offers for teams to stop offering them. Nobody before this offseason (Weiters) had ever accepted an offer before, so teams were comfortable assuming the recipients would decline. It’s simple Economics. Players/agents need to learn how to play by the rules instead of when things don’t go there way, just complain about them until they’re changed.
Bingo. Add Rasmus to the QO accepting players. Is a guy who hit .240 with 24 homeruns and plus defense worth $15.8 million over one year? I think that’s on the high side of what his AAV would be if he signed a 3 or 4 year deal. The projections had him at a 3 year $33 million contract. Why not take $15.8 this year from a team you like playing with? Seems like an easy decision that Fowler, Kendrick and Gallardo should have taken. Only Fowler should get a contract over 3 years in my opinion.
How these agents can think it’s a good idea to pass up nearly $16M for average MLB players just because the are FA I will never understand. Kendrick got $4M more for an extra year of service. He should have taken the QO and he likely would have go more next year without the QO tag. That complaining agent should be fired by the guys he represents.
Why would you assume Kendrick wouldn’t be offered the QO next year?
because a team can’t give a player a QO two years in a row.
Says who? Any team can give any free agent a qualifying offer provided he played the entirety of the previous season with that club. A team can give a player a qualifying offer ten seasons in a row if it so chooses and the player continues to sign 1 year contracts.
Kendrick signed a 2 yr $22 million deal, I believe after the contact ends, I believe the Dodgers can make a QO. Next year, Kendrick will have one more year on his contract, so he can’t get a QO.
I have absolutely no pity for those free agents that turned down qualifying offers. We saw a few who accepted QOs this off season for the first time and I think that it is likely that next year more will accept QOs (if they are similar to these types). I also think that teams will more closely evaluate who they extend a QO to because of the real possibility of a player accepting the QO.
I would absolutely give Cliff Lee a contract like that 6 to 8 million or even more, however none of it would be guaranteed. It would be the league minimum (okay maybe that is guaranteed) plus incentives to reach certain milestones or a minor league plus incentives. However, if he did not want to do either then he is out of his mind.
Really? You wouldn’t give Lee a guarantee if that’s it took to get him? Okay, maybe not if you’re the Pirates or Rays, teams that that kind of mistake can cripple you financially, but if you’re the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers…hell, even the Royals, why not? Lee is not a middle-ground pitcher; he’s either a guy who’s going to be healthy and pitch well or he won’t pitch. But if he does pitch he’s dynamite in October. Would the Royals be willing to risk $8M guaranteed to have a healthy Cliff Lee on the mound in October to defend their title? Seems like a calculated risk to me that is worthwhile.
Tyler Clippard would be a good pick up for the Astros. I think that would be a big win for their bullpen.
How in the world are the Red Sox all of a sudden favorites in the east? I would take the Blue Jays and Yankees over them easy. Two guys (Price and Kimbrel) don’t just gain 15 games in the standings on Toronto.
Well sure everything being equal. But it’s not equal. Hanley, Pablo, porcello and Kelly may all play significantly better than last season. They also got Smith for the pen so in reality there are 3 guys. But improvements aren’t just made by the players you acquire. They can also come from bouncebacks and experience. I don’t see them in first necessarily, but there isn’t a direct 1 to 1 correlation between off season acquisitions and win total.
I feel good about Houston’s bullpen, as is. Adding Clippard on top of it could be… nasty.
I wonder why ESPSN writer Shoenfield thinks Dexter Fowler is a good fit in the Cards outfield? He did have 17 HR and 46 RBI’s for the Cubs last year in 150 games but if they pro rate Randal Grichuk season for the time he spent on the DL he would have had 25 HR and 75 RBI’s in 155 games. He played in 103 games with 17 HR’s and 48 RBI’s. More impressive was his 510 slugging % and his 830 OPS. ,,,and he had a load of extra base hits.
Ditto Stephen Piscotty. As a rookie, he only played in 60 games and had 7 HR and 40 RBI’s and hit 305 with some real clutch hits and a bunch of extra base hits (4 triples and 20 doubles). Pro rate him out to a full season and he should also be into the 20’s in HR’s and 85 RBI’s level. If Matt Holliday is healthy this year he should do about 26 HR’s and close to 100 RBI’s and bat close to or over .300. Our reserve OF is Tommy Pham who has good pop too but only played in 48 games last year with 5 HR and 20 RBI’s. He had a few weeks when he was really hot but then cooled off.
I don’t think the Cards need Fowler or have a place for him. Last year was his best offensively in a smaller Wrigley Field and all 3 of our regular OF should do better than that. His offense from last year would probably would translate to about 13 or 14 in a larger Busch Stadium.. Rather than Fowler the Cards need a good hitter like Cargo of the Rockies. If we could get him and his potential to hit close to 35 HR’s they would have to make a spot for him..
“The draft pick is hurting good baseball players getting jobs,” Ummmm No. The player turning down $15.6 million is hurting themselves get jobs you nimrod.