While the Mets have made clear they don’t have any ongoing extension talks with their starters, and there isn’t a ton of pressure given their extended existing control, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that it may be worth at least exploring some chatter with Matt Harvey. Both the prized righty and his agent, Scott Boras, have suggested they’d be willing to engage in dialogue. Harvey, 26, is earning $4.33MM in his first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility. Sherman suggests that buying the remaining two arb years at about $29MM and adding three free agent seasons at $30MM a pop might be a fair valuation. While that seems to be a pretty fair suggestion for an outstanding 3+ starter, even in spite of his recent Tommy John surgery, from my perspective it’s somewhat difficult to imagine Harvey and Boras jumping at $119MM over five years. Such a deal would take Harvey though his age-32 season, meaning he’d hit the market at about the same stage as James Shields did last winter. It’s also far from clear that New York would be interested in such a scenario, of course, and Sherman makes very clear that any such concept is something of a longshot.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, who is currently on track to hit the market with Harvey and a host of other premium players, is working on decreasing his reliance on his big fastball, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. The hope is that Fernandez will not only be able to improve — a scary proposition for opponents — but will reduce the load on his recently-repaired elbow. “We want to see him continue to pitch and continue to develop his weapons, where he’s not having to have the mentality that I’ve got to strike everybody out,” explained new manager Don Mattingly. “There’s nothing wrong with having guy hit a ground ball early in the count. … We think pitching that way keeps him healthy for a long time. It’s good for him. It’s good for us. It’s good for everybody.”
- Interestingly, the recent Tommy John research of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum showed that the volume of what he classifies as “hard pitches” can have significant predictive power of future UCL replacements. Fernandez is the biggest name to land among the ten pitchers with the highest statistical TJ risk this year, per Woodrum’s research, which certainly suggests that thoughtful handling is warranted.
- Presumed Phillies closer David Hernandez is dealing with some “issues” with his right elbow, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The skipper himself didn’t seem entirely sure of what difficulties Hernandez was having. Meanwhile, the righty says he isn’t injured and is simply trying not to overburden himself having missed a lot of camp time in recent springs, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets.
- In Braves camp, Cuban veteran Hector Olivera is still working to refine his hitting mechanics, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with the team seeing signs of improvement. The first impressions of youngster Ozzie Albies have been universally positive, O’Brien adds, who may be pushing up his big league timeline (although not all the way to Opening Day this year) with his performance. Meanwhile, Atlanta may seek to utilize Jace Peterson in more of a utility role this season, O’Brien adds.
- James Wagner of the Washington Post has an interesting feature on Nationals lefty Felipe Rivero, who came over as one of two minor leaguers to accompany Jose Lobaton in the deal that sent Nate Karns to the Rays. The fireballing southpaw has focused on strengthening his arm, and hopes that touching 100 mph last year will become a more common occurrence. While he says he “was thinking too much before” in a starter’s role, Rivero now feels settled in as a pen man. “Last season,” he said, “I’d imagine that, even if I was facing Barry Bonds, I’d get him out. Or when I threw against the league’s best batters, I didn’t think about the Mets or whoever. It’s me versus you. If I strike you out, I strike you out. If you make contact, you make contact. That’s it.” Wagner notes that Rivero could factor into the team’s future closer considerations, and the 24-year-old says he’d welcome such an opportunity.
bigpapi4ever
I’d like to see the Red Sox and Mets have Harvey trade talks, I doubt the Wilpons will pony up enough dough to be able to keep him.
How about this trade?
Mets Give: Harvey
Red Sox Give: JBJ + Marerro + Ceccini
Red Sox make their rotation even more formidable and the Mets get possibly the best OF defender in baseball and long term replacements at SS and 3B. Seems like a win/win type deal to me.
Bazingaa
If a red sox fan made the suggestions it’s not win win, Red Sox fans only think it’s win win when it is better for their team
A'sfaninUK
That’s an absurdly one-sided trade that could only be made by a Boston homer.
Please don’t make posts like this. You want Harvey? You start with Boagaerts AND Betts. Not willing to give up them both? Then you aren’t getting Harvey until he reaches FA.
bigpapi4ever
I have to say I think you guys are overvaluing just a couple years of Harvey whereas you would be getting 5-6 years of cheap service time from all 3 guys the Sox would be trading. Maybe the Sox would have to also throw in a low level minor leaguer with high upside to sweeten the pot but I’m pretty certain the groundwork I laid out wouldn’t be too far from what it would take to get Harvey. The only thing laughable is thinking the Mets could get Boegarts AND Betts from the Sox lol. Harvey isn’t work either young budding superstar.
KillerBs
Moncada/Devers+Swihart for harvry + a bullpen arm
soxfan1
That proposition is even crazier than the first one. Sure that was a homer trade proposal but let’s be realistic here: either one of betts/bogey plus pieces gets a deal done. Not going to happen but definitely realist.
Paul Salinas
lol non-sense
T_Rexx2
It definitely shouldn’t take both betts and bogarts. Both have proven they are Allstar caliber position players, for an elite arm, but just coming off tommy John surgery. One of them plus 2 prospects is the most likely scenario, but even that probably won’t happen. Maybe with the new sox front office, but I still don’t think they do this.
hojostache
“…just coming off TJS”…or two years ago.
His #’s in his first year back were solid (2.71ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 5:1 K:BB).
Red Sox fans are dreaming.
tuna411
Is this a joke too?
PhilliesFan012
Ceccini is with Milwaukee now anyway. I’m not going to be a jerk like just another fan but yeah there’s no way that’d happen, it happens with Boegaerts and a load of other prospects nothing less, look at what the braves got for Shelby Miller, Harvey would fetch much more
teddyballgame
Bogaerts alone is worth more than Harvey… nobody is trading an elite shortstop in this league for anything.
demons19
Are you on the pipe?
You play too many video games.
Those 3 guys are all utility stiffs.
The trade begins with Bogaerts and you’ll need to add much more.
You do not get ACEs for garbage.
Niekro
As an objective individual I think Betts or Bogaerts is too much of an ask for Harvey at this point (They have proven to be in his caliber of player with much more control left) if the Mets are out of it mid way, I think a package built around one of Benintendi or Moncada not both,would greatly entice them. You don’t get kings ransoms for guys who have no chance of signing an extension and limited control.
RunDMC
….and not far removed from TJ surgery, despite success since. If I’m not mistaken, won’t he still be on an IP cap this year?
hojostache
“..if the Mets are out of it mid way (sic).”
Haha. The Mets are the odds on fav. to win the NL East and they have one of the top 2 or 3 rotations in the league. BOS plays in a far tougher division and has shaky back-end pitching. BOS has a far better shot at being 5-10 games back and in 3rd/4th place by mid-season.
metsoptimist
No, he won’t.
metsoptimist
(The above was in response to RunDMC’s question.)
TheNoseOfHawkHarrelson
lmao no
bosox90
Damn, I still can tell if you’re trolling or just are really, let’s put it nicely, uninformed.
Frist of all, Cecchini is on the Brewers. We traded him there in December for cash considerations. Even if we did still have him, he’s lost nearly all the value he once had as a future everyday MLB starter. Marrero at best will be a solid utility glove. While we’ve seen one good offensive month out of JBJ, I’m sure other teams aren’t willing to treat him as a centerpiece in a trade purely for his defensive prowess.
To get Harvey, we’d have to give up Mookie or Xander, and then a chunk of the farm. I suppose Bogaerts/Benintendi/Espinoza/Marrero may be in the ball park. That would allow Moncada to take over SS, assuming this is a trade that will happen in the 2016-17 offsesason.
Philliesfan4life
All that for 2 or 3 years of Harvey? I wouldn’t make that trade
teddyballgame
Most fan trade fantasies are ridiculous. One player or the other is always overrated. As I posted in response to an earlier comment, Bogaerts alone is worth more than Harvey. Personally I don’t think the price the Mets would expect to get in return for Harvey is worth it and they shouldn’t accept anything less because he’s too valuable in their current situation. You can never have enough pitching, there is no such thing as a surplus.
bosox90
I wouldn’t either, just think that’s the type of deal that would get it done. I’m trying not to get too attached to the Red Sox ‘big 4’ prospects Moncada/Devers/Benintendi/Espinoza because if they are in contention come July I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big move for an impact rotation arm, and if that’s the case at least one of them is likely gone.
hanks1hammer
Ya, I would agree with that. It’s tough to say who hangs up first,l which may be a good suggestion that your trade is pretty close to even
Paul Salinas
Ceccini’s no longer with the red sox
eilexx
I hate the Mets, and don’t appreciate Harvey’s prima dona attitude, but the guy is a legit number one starter, young enough to be elite for a long time. To think that the Red Sox (or any team) could acquire him for second rate prospects/players is a joke. The Red Sox would not need to dump their entire farm system to get him, but it would take one elite prospect/player (1 of Betts, Boagerts or Moncada) and then a couple of secondary pieces, something as high as Devers perhaps. They’re not getting him for anything less. As a Red Sox fan you’d have to ask yourself what is more important…watching one of those guys develop into a superstar, or swapping out Clay Bucholz for Matt Harvey in game 2 of the World Series?
hojostache
eilexx’s post was, by far, the most balanced in this thread. Harvey will only be traded at a premium because he has THREE years left of control and is a proven #1. BOS has some quality young position players, some/most of who will continue to improve and be very productive. However, they still need more of a track record before any of them can be considered an elite player (instead of an elite prospect), which is what Harvey is right now.
It is tough to compare apples to apples because a starting pitcher doesn’t play every day, but the true value in a player like Harvey isn’t during the 162…it’s during the must win/playoff/world series game when the other team has their ace on the mound and your season comes down to 27 outs. He can be a jackass/immature/primadonna/etc…but he pitches best on the brightest stage. organization from a championship, how much is his true value? Just ask the Cubs how much one game (or even a handful of outs) is worth to a franchise.
ps. JBJ as the centerpiece…lol. He had a good…two months? Harvey will finish in the top 5 in the Cy Young this year and has a good shot at winning it.
Kayrall
“I’ll give you 3 AAAA players, 2 of them are 25 and the other is 26 for your best pitcher.”
—-Dial Tone—-
tuna411
Is this offer a joke ?
hanks1hammer
This is a really bad deal. The three guys you are thinking to trade are some of the least productive players on the Red Sox team. You think the Mets would take them for two years of a genuine top of the rotation starter? If the Mets elect to trade him, this deal wouldn’t keep the Mets on the line. They would get more for ONE year of Harvey.
Additionally, expected contenders don’t make trades like this. Prospects for established players are what rebuilding teams do. The Mets are positioned to be a serious threat for the world series. There is probably almost no prospect package (or ALMOST prospect package, in your case) that could intice the Mets to trade THIS year.
A'sfaninUK
The Mets contention window is now, not 5 years from now. They should just let Harvey walk at the end of his deal, as they won’t have the pieces to be a contender at that point and will be entering rebuilding/reloading period 3 years from now.
Why can’t we just enjoy the present?
Out of place Met fan
+1
cxcx
You have pretty much no idea what the Mets competitive status will be three years from now, and only somewhat of an idea of what they will have. (Yesterday I was reading the comments on the Shields-Myers trade write-up on FG and the endless stream of people saying the Royals would be mediocre for two years then be stuck in a perpetual rebuild when they lost Shields really highlights the absurdity of comments like the one you made.)
Things that the Mets are pretty likely to have the season after Harvey leaves (of course a guy or three is likely to be traded or injured or cut):
a 31-yo Jacob deGrom
a 26-yo Noah Syndergaard
a 28-yo Steven Matz
a 29-yo Zack Wheeler
a 28-yo Hansel Robles
a 29-yo Logan Verritt
a 29-yo Sean Gilmartin
a 26-yo Michael Conforto
a 31-yo Travis d’Arnaud
a 31-yo Juan Lagares
a 27-yo Wilmer Flores
a 28-yo Kevin Plawecki
a 36-yo David Wright
The listed players will cost (very) roughly $75m.
About 3/4 of them (including the top three pitchers) will be under control beyond that first post-Harvey year.
They have a middle of the pack farm system (15th according to BA, though that might include Matz) so they should continue adding a good number of quality players either by graduating guys or via trade.
They have two first round picks and could have as many as three next year (Cespedes and Neil Walker), two the following year (Duda), and three the year after (Harvey and Familia). Not that upcoming picks will make them better within a couple of years but the picks would allow them to be more aggressive in trading prospects for players than they otherwise would be.
They have a rising payroll and will be able to sign or trade for about $100m worth of players beyond the dozen I listed.
So again, saying a team will be rebuilding in three years time is always stupid unless it has just entered a very extended rebuild. Saying a team with so many prime-aged players under control at an affordable a price and with a solid farm system and a large spending capacity will be rebuilding is really, really stupid.
eilexx
Where do you get your $75M from? Wright and Lagarus are in for $24M, you really think you can divide $51M among all those players? With three years of inflation factored in? $51M likely won’t be enough to pay DeGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and D’rnauld. More likely that entire group will cost the Mets upwards of $110M.
I don’t think the Mets will be “rebuilding” in three years—if they run their team smartly. Although money does become a factor, because despite “being the Mets” and “playing in NY”, the Wilpon’s have shown they are cash poor.
Trading Harvey probably could be the best thing they could do at the moment. They have the pitching to withstand his loss, and dealing him could net them a franchise player to build around. I wouldn’t deal him for anything less than a legitimate superstar prospect/young player (Betts, Boagerts, Seager, etc.).
Also, the idea that the Mets are going to get 1st round picks for Cespedes (maybe) and Walker (doubtful; if they give him a QO he’d likely except as it would nearly as much money as he’s made in his entire career.
But as a Phillies fan I don’t see the Mets falling apart in three years, and look forward to competing with them well into the next decade.
bronxbombers
Honestly that’s not even close look at Shelby Miller trade they’d want at least a comparable deal start with moncada which Se and 2b are a need for nym and you have a conversion starter
Out of place Met fan
2B is a need for the Mets? How so?
Niekro
I like how Albies plays the game, the teams laundry team will be put to the test expect a lot of dirty uniforms from Mr.Albies.
RunDMC
Love. Love. Love how Albies plays the game. So excited to see a possible DP duo of Albies/Swanson some day. (Fingers crossed). Albies reminds me so much of Jose Altuve, for more than the diminutive frame.
Out of place Met fan
Big issue with attempting to line up any deal for Harvey is; contenders deal for aces not trade them away and…anyone dealing for an ace would be counting on major league contributions from controlled young players that would be what a contending Mets would want in return.
eilexx
Your argument makes sense, but it’s rare that a contending club has enough elite pitching to be able to withstand dealing a pitcher of Havery’s magnitude and still contend. That is what the Mets are. Teams that are built for October do value contributions from young players, but for the most part the value of a number one starter outweighs the position player in a short series. Madison Bumgarner nearly won the World Series all by himself…I’d imagine that type or contribution from Harvey would be worth a young budding superstar to a club with World Series aspirations.
homer 2
If Scott Boras is willing to talk extension with a quality arm such as Harvey you need to seriously check out Harvey’s physical health..
AidanVega123
Just what I was thinking
VermontsFinest
First of all. All of those trades are completely ridiculous. You should be banned from this site.
The only trade that makes sense wouldn’t be for Harvey, but rather the other 3 in Syndergard, deGrom or Matz.
hojostache
It would be light for any of those guys (with the exception of Matz…who after another half a season will be untouchable). Syn has the highest upside of anyone on the staff because he is so young and has shown an ability to step up.
If Zach Wheeler can come back and contribute as a #2-#3, then the Mets will be in the unique position to trade one of their SPs and still have one of the best 1-4 in the majors; that’s nuts.
If Harvey can have another strong season, his trade value going into ’17 with 2yr remaining will be perennial all=star player + a couple prospects. I’m not saying Correa, but a guy like that is not an obscene ask for a desperate team.
VermontsFinest
All of those trades you suggest are out of this world. You should be banned from this site.
Kayrall
I miss CJH.
bravosfan4life
Would love to get an update about Kevin maitan please
hanks1hammer
Lots of talk about trading Harvey on this topic. There is simply no way Harvey goes this year. Next year..probably not then either but I won’t be so surprised
In any event, it really seems like the Braves return on the Shelby Miller trade is the new bar set on expectations for pitchers but I believe this is a mistake. Fans see that trade and then say “well imagine what the Mets would get for Harvey?!?!” Throughout the entire offseason you saw Cleveland looking for a comparable package for Salazar and it didn’t happen.
I think we should see the Miller trade as an anomaly and not as a suggestion on what you can expect to get for pitching.
hojostache
Miller is a solid #3 with #2 upside if everything breaks right.
Harvey is a Cy Young contender this year and going forward.
The package for him w 2yr of control nets far more than Shelby Miller’s (overpay) package.
Out of place Met fan
But Dave Stewart does not have the assets to pull off another similar trade.
hojostache
haha…touche.
That really was a headscratcher…until you realize it was Dave Stewart. I like Miller, he’s a nice player, but he’s not a #1-#2, which is the value he fetched.