Dodgers To Sign Kyle Tucker

9:04pm: It’s a four-year, $240MM contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Tucker can opt out after the 2027 season. There’s also an opt out after 2028, according to Passan.

8:53pm: Kyle Tucker is in agreement on a deal with the Dodgers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It’s a short-term contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

The two-time defending champions have done it again. Tucker is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. Tucker slots into a lineup that already included Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman also capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system rankings. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with one of the biggest annual values in the sport’s history. A four-year, $240MM deal would come with a $60MM AAV on the surface. It’s not yet clear to what extent, if any, potential deferred money will knock that number down in terms of net present value.

As it stands, Tucker’s deal contains the second-highest annual value in history. Ohtani technically landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals involved meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star caliber player who’s a little outside the top tier of players in MLB. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, Tucker broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full MLB campaigns, improving his offensive approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. Tucker was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be much more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out of action for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a monster finish in September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. Tucker jammed his right thumb diving into second base on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said  that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

More to come.