The Cubs have long been tied to left-handed relief help, and they landed just such an asset today (although not one that many expected), announcing that the acquisition of Mike Montgomery and minor league right-hander Jordan Pries from the Mariners. In exchange, the Cubs are sending Triple-A first baseman Dan Vogelbach and Double-A right-hander Paul Blackburn to Seattle.
While Montgomery, 27, doesn’t bring the name recognition of Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller, he’s been quite good in 61 2/3 innings (30 relief appearances, two starts) for the Mariners in 2016, pitching to a 2.34 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a stellar 58.8 percent ground-ball rate. Since shifting to the bullpen, Montgomery has seen a huge spike in his velocity, as his heater, which averaged 90.9 mph out of the rotation in 2015, is now sitting at an even 94 mph in 2016.
[Related: Updated Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs Depth Charts]
Long rated as a top prospect in the Royals’ farm system, Montgomery went to Tampa Bay in the Wade Davis/Wil Myers/Jake Odorizzi/James Shields blockbuster and was ultimately flipped to Seattle last year for right-hander Erasmo Ramirez. The Cubs will have control of Montgomery for another five seasons beyond the 2016 campaign, so this is far from a short-term pickup for president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer.
Of course, the same long-term caveats hold true for Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, who will acquire a long highly touted minor league bat in the form of Vogelbach. The 23-year-old Vogelbach is a former second-round pick of the Cubs that has mashed at virtually every minor league stop he’s made. However, as a player that is strictly limited to first base or designated hitter — Vogelbach’s 6’0″, 250-pound frame wouldn’t play elsewhere — there was no hope for Vogelbach to get to the Majors with the Cubs other than as a bench bat thanks to the presence of Anthony Rizzo.
The left-handed-hitting Vogelbach is currently batting an excellent .318/.425/.548 with 16 homers and 18 doubles through 365 plate appearances with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate. That type of production has been standard for the slugger throughout his career in the minors, as he is the owner of a career .290/.389/.486 batting line as a professional. Vogelbach just missed the cut for the Cubs’ midseason Top 10 prospect list over at Baseball America, though BA noted that his stock is rising with a strong season a Triple-A and a strong work ethic to improve his defense at first base.
Blackburn, 22, was selected by Chicago with the 56th overall pick of the 2012 draft and rose to the Double-A level for the first time this season, where he’s logged a 3.17 ERA with 6.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings (18 starts). In addition to limiting walks effectively, Blackburn has registered an impressive 57.1 percent ground-ball rate in his time at the Double-A level this season. BA rated him 19th among Cubs farmhands this past offseason, calling him a potential back-of-the-rotation starter with some durability issues following a bout of forearm soreness late last season. BA’s report notes three average or better offerings (fastball, curve, changeup) and strong command.
As for Pries, the Cubs will be acquiring a former 30th-round pick that ranked outside of the Mariners’ Top 30 prospects per both BA and MLB.com this winter. The 26-year-old has split this season between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a 4.93 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 20 games — 12 starts and eight relief appearances. Pries began the year in the ’pen but has since moved to the rotation and, excluding a disastrous nine-run meltdown in his first start of the year, he’s logged a 3.23 ERA with a 60-to-17 K/BB ratio in 64 innings dating back to May 21.
ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian first reported, during a television broadcast, that the two clubs had a trade that was in advanced talks. Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweeted that a deal was in place, and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reported (via Twitter) that Montgomery and Vogelbach were involved. Jon Morosi of FOX Sports and MLB.com tweeted that there were other players in the deal, and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal first reported Blackburn’s inclusion (links to Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Pries as the fourth player (on Twitter).
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
That’s too much to give up for a reliever.
Relievers are important…matchups especially. the only spot the Cubs need to get better is in the RP….Vogelbach is not going to help the Cubs win the World Series…Montgomery could play a good part in the pen.
Good point.
I’m with Bob… Cubs are going for it this year..
I never understand that phrase. “They’re going for it this year.” As if that hasn’t been the goal every year, more so in some years than others, but still. Pissing away solid prospects for a reliever isn’t smart. Adding a reliever isn’t going to push this team over the top, whether his name is Montgomery or miller for that matter. They still have to play the dam games. If the pen returns to their April, May, and early June form this team is still looking good without any moves. With Edwards pitching like a stud out of the pen that gives them 5 solid relievers in Cahill, Edwards, Wood, Strop, and Rondon. They then have the wild cards in Nathan and Matusz. Matusz was a solid left handed reliever just last year for the Orioles and was a passable reliever in 3 full year in Baltimore in 2013, 2014, and 2015, posting a 3.22 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Not lights out by any means, but decent. If Nathan comes back and pitches like his 2013 self and not his 2014 self they got a stud right there. In 2013 Nathan 43 saves and a 1.39 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. Granted it is the minors, Nathan has 10 appearances, 9 IP, a 9 K, 2 BB, 2.00 ERA and a 0.56 WHIP. Possible red flag though, the 2 ERs he’s given up were 2 solo home runs.
Bottom line is, right now on paper, Cubs over payed for Montgomery….. especially in light of the Ziegler trade. Not only did they give up Vogelbach but they also coughed up one of their actually good pitching prospects in Blackburn. Montgomery better at least be legit in the pen. Hopefully Bosio can work his black magic on him and turn him into a solid starter to fill the void after next year and Arrieta leaves to go play for money. I’m not saying turn him into Arrieta, but if he can resemble Jason Hammel…… I’d call it a success.
Soler Baez Almora contreras Bryant Rizzo Russell Heyward Torres happ Jimenez Schwarber all better than volgelbach. You can only start 8 . When do you think volgelbach would have played?
I believe you are missing their point. Which was seeking a better return for Vogelbach.
Theo is a good GM but I do think he should’ve at least gotten a little better prospect in return from this trade rather than a throw-in type. Dealing from a strength still should reap rewards rather than settling, in my opinion.
It wasn’t the goal for the Cubs for many years. How do you think they got all of those highly touted prospects? By picking late in the draft because they were trying to win?
Theo has 2 world Series and rebuilt the lovable losers into a contender so I guess “good” is a proper term to describe him. Let it play out.
The Cubs were never going to get the full value of Vogelbach. Just because the Cubs have one of the smartest front offices in the league does not mean all the other ones are stupid. Everybody and their brother knew that Vogelbach had zero path to the MLB through the Cubs system. Therfore, the negotiating front office opposite of Theo/Hoyer actually had the upper hand.
The bottom line is that the Cubs need bullpen help. Their pen pitched way over their heads in April/May and Montgomery has been dominant this season. It’s also a plus that they have control of him for the long term.
That’s why theo gets the big bucks and you don’t . What you value volgelbach and what other gm’s value him are obviously 2 different things . You think theo should get Kershaw trout or sale for him? Theo has done well for us so far . Theology.
What you say is true, but you don’t just trade away a promising prospect away for the sake of trading him away just because he blocked on the ML team by players already in place. IMO they should’ve held onto Vogelbach, and I bet when the “experts” make their arbitrary “top 100” lists, Vogelbach would FINALLY crack the top 100 which for some reason makes prospects that much more valuable….. just to be named on some highly subjective and arbitrary list…………. not because they are f**ing RAKING in triple A and have solid minors stats throughout their young career, like Vogelbach.
They traded a guy who wouldn’t play for the Cubs, probably ever, for a strong relief/possibly starting pitcher whom they will control for five years. Your anger is misdirected. The Cubs are better now than they were this morning, and still have an extremely deep pool of prospects from which to deal in further moves. Good trade.
You still missed his point – it wasn’t about “oh we don’t need him because we have Rizzo and etc.”. Devaluing your own backups is a dangerous road to travel down.
I just don’t think other teams were interested in volgelbach . I’m sure theo called around to see what the best he could get for him. I’d rather lose volgelbach then one of our higher ranked prospects or current stars .
he was drafter for this very reason. He is an AL type player. A trade was always inevitable. Good for Vogelbach for finally getting a chance at the show.
You’re assuming your evaluation of Vogelbach is the correct one.
Perhaps the Cubs, among other teams, don’t think so highly of him?
Sarcasm?
It’s excess at a position for a need. Sounds like a fair deal to me.
Do you have any idea how good a 1B/DH has to be on offense to be worth anything at all? Especially when he’s a big negative on the bases, and a smaller negative with the glove? Dude’s gonna have to rip off a 130 wRC+ to be league average, and that was off the top of my head and is probably low.
Vogelbach’s not worth nearly as much as you think.
Looks like he’s fetching a quality reliever and 2 minor league starters. Not too bad IMHO.
So, you’d sit tight with Lind and Lee? I’m sure they are posting a 130 wCR.
Lee, absolutely. Lind, no. And that’s precisely why.
Also, he’s fetching a quality reliever and a mediocre AAA depth guy and coming back with a better minor league pitcher than the one headed to Chicago’s farm. Mariners undeniably won this one on paper, although we know how that can go.
DH or not, if you are looking like a guy who will hit for average, be an OBP machine, AND hit 30 HRs…….. you’re a stud. Who WOULDN’T want that in their lineup. I don’t get why he has this DH cloud over his head. If AL fans love the DH so much you’d think they’d praise the “position.” That said, he plays 1B. He might not have insane range over at 1B but if he gets his glove on it he’ll make the play. He is nowhere ner as bad in the field as people are making him out to be. Same goes for Schwarber in that regard. People talk about defense as if it trumps offensive production. No. No it doesn’t. IMO if Prince Fielder can play 1B for a decade then Vogelbach can too…. easily. Playing in Safeco might hurt Vogelbach’s power numbers, but he still should be popping 25+ off per season. That big a$$ outfield just means more doubles for him.
Bottom line is, people don’t like Vogelbach which is why he isn’t on any of these highly subjective top prospect lists….. all because he weighs 250 lbs at 6 feet tall. Again, look at Prince Fielder. He’s listed at 275, but he’s got to be pushing 300, and he’s 5’11”. Kyle Schwarber is considered a stud yet he weighs 235 and is also 6 feet tall. Is 15 pounds that much to scare off teams? It IS why the Cubs landed him in the second round…. because teams were concerned about his build, as they should have been at the time. Out of High School he was a sloppy fat and I think he was weighing around 280. Now he looks pretty much like Shwarber, maybe a bit puffier, but not much. I mean V-Bach and Schwarber look like fraternal twins. Tell me, in this picture, who is fatter, Vogelbach or Schwarber………. and which is which for that matter?
suntimesmedia.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/doppelga…
What exactly says he will hit 30 hrs. His career high is 19. Your judgement is in a offensive friendly environment. That’s like me saying O’Keya Dickson would hit 30 because his career hrs are similar and he’s hit 23 so far in the PCL. 1) you’re overrating your former prospects. 2) it doesn’t matter how big Schwarber looks he is extremely athletic.
I like this assessment and whole-heartedly agree.
This is a bad way to look at it, too, though. History shows HR production in the minors doesn’t necessarily translate to much at all in terms of MLB production. Harper had something like 550 PAs in the minors and hit just 23 total HRs.
But that’s two totally separate situations. Harper was a professional at 17 seeing as he got his GED and enrolled in Juco ball early two years early I believe. Game wise he truly had one full season in the minors total 461 abs which netted him 18 hrs at class A when most of his peers were still playing high school baseball. Although that bring my point full circle. You can’t crown a guy as a 30-40 hr guy based upon bloated AAA numbers.
6’0″ – 250 says it all. Not attractive to most GM’s. 1B or DH…he belongs in the AL.
He was a starter and moved to relief when Miley and Karns were brought in. He started a few games when we had guys get hurt so he can start. Don’t be surprised to see him if they need an emergency starter or next year as a lefty starter. He is young and could be a good 3-5 LH starter.
Maybe. But the Cubs need bullpen help and if we’re being honest Dan Vogelbach had no future with the Cubs.
He had no future with the Cubs…. true. But that doesn’t mean you give him away….. in addition to one of the few actual promising pitching prospects they had. IMO as of right now this is an overpay by Hoyer and Theo. the other dude they got in the deal….. Pries I think his name is, isn’t even worth mentioning. He’s a bum in the minors and will likely never see MLB. Harsh words, but it is true. Jordan Pries is pretty much what Chris Rusin was for the team. A crappy minor league pitcher with experience who they’ll call on to make emergency starts a couple times out of the year. He’ll likely suck, and then he’ll get sent back down. Blackburn has a nice stat line, is in double A, and will likely be in triple A next year. ML ready in maybe 2 years. Vogelbach will likely be suiting up for the Mariners this weekend. He’s been ready. It’s going to be painful if he starts out the gate smoking hot.
And you don’t think Montgomery will be suiting up for the Cubs this weekend? Cheese and rice they traded a AAA player! You have to trade good players to get good players. The bullpen matters. Just ask KC.
I feel like the 40 man roster played into this as well. Who do the Cubs have to protect this year? If they move a bat and get a quality arm controlled for five more years in return they can not protect a lessor arm from the rule five draft while also making room for another prospect they need to protect.
Honestly that’s not to much at all realistically. This was a brilliant move by the Cubs to get a player who is cost controlled and will be theirs for 5 years of his prime. This is almost exactly how Andrew Miller became what he is today which was a top prospect who was a SP but didn’t live up to the expectations then became a tweener and ultimately ended up flourishing in the pen.
MLB upgraded the top 30 prospects and Vogelbech is 15 and Blackburn is 23 in Seattle’s top 30. This is where it doesn’t make sense to me unless they got him just to DH. DJ Peterson is #5 and ready to move up. Sorry to tell you Cub fans Pries isn’t in the top 30. Not sure if that is because your minor system is that much stronger or the kids is just not good. I don’t know anything about him.
cooooo
Why?
How about some stats on both
Click on their names in the first paragraph, you get all the stats you could want.
Cubs fans be like, “How could they give up a guy with 90 HR power for a reliever?”
Lol
So true
true lol
As a cub fan I am just glad we got a reliever who didn’t cost us Schwarber . Let alone anyone who would be on major league team for foreseeable future. I’ve seen volgelbach at Iowa and he can mash but Rizzo won’t give up his job
As a Cubs fan your a douche
*you’re
And I believe that you are in fact, in the wrong here my friend. Enjoy what ever last place team you root for.
Shame on you.
How bout you enjoy your 108th year with out a World Series ring you goat sucker
He is probably a Yankees fan that is all butthurt that the Cubs didn’t give them Schwarber for Miller.
One of my Yankees friends said that a Miller/Chapman package could easily net them Bryce Harper. They haven’t had to sell in so long they have no idea how to value trades.
That was meant for Remms12
Not as butthurt as the cubbies after the mets ripped you a new one last year. Also @sabermetricsforlife your friends are idiots so I assume the same goes for you and obviously that was meant for me do you not know how a reply works.
Or 30 HR power. Way to be melodramatic. Are you on your period?
Have a Snickers and chill. It was humor.
I like this guy
A period joke? That explains why your arguments read like they are written by an adolescent–finding out that the girls in my class menstruated was scary and funny to me when I was thirteen too.
KB clearly didn’t get the joke.
Speaking of melodramatic, let’s over-react to simple jokes!
Now the Cubs can trade Mike Montgomery for Miller because they clearly have equal value, since Vogelbach for Miller was apparently such a fair deal
Vogelbach was a triple A player for life in the cubs organization. no where to play. i feel like i’ve been reading about him for years…. good to see him get out of Chicago.
Just because he was blocked doesn’t mean they should give him away. He was drafted in the same class as Javier Baez. Baez was a first rounder and V-bach was their 2nd rounder. He was out of high school when they drafted him. He’s played parts of 6 seasons. His path has been purposely slow since after Hendry drafted him, Hendry got fired and Theo and Co. came in. They promptly traded for Anthony Rizzo. Never had a chance since. STILL….. that doesn’t diminish his excellent minor league numbers. Hoyer and Theo over payed on this deal. Why they had to get Jordan Pries in the deal is beyond me. Pries is just a body.
Shut up KB! You sound like a child. Your ranting is ridiculous. I’m sure you would do a much better job running the Cubs then Theo and Hoyer. Lol
KB’s got a crush…
this Cubs fan is content with it
Vogelbach was never going to bring in a huge return given his DH-only profile
mostly i’m just glad this pretty much guarantees no one will mention Schwarber-for-a-reliever again….
id trade Schwarber for Miller in a heart beat…Schwarber is a less than avg OF…and OF are a dime a dozen Happ and Eloy are in the minors for OF as well. . Miller is elite…..the World Series would make the CUBS a billion dollars..lol. – the Cubs should know they need to take every chance they can get to win…they are the Cubs
I was pretty sure the cubs would of used Vogelbach in a deal of getting andrew miller or somebody else.
Why would Yankees do that?
Hardly a clone of Schwarber. Can you imagine seeing Vegelbach in LF?? Good deal for the Cubs.
Yankees are dumb?
Yea what about Bird next year?
You just HAD to knock over that first domino, huh?
This deal won’t end up well for the cubs imo, Vogelbach is blocked by rizzo but he’s basically a clone of schwarber. They should of waited.
Except his bat is nowhere near as good.
SEA gets a DH only that the Cubs had zero use for. Cubs gets 5.5 years of a guy with a 2.91FIP as a reliever who is allowing lefties to up a meager .532OPS against him and he’s not just a loogy. Righties are only putting up a .659OPS against him. I’ll take this each and every day over 3 months of Chapman.
You’re right, where Schwarber will likely hit for average, 40 HR power, and get on base at a high clip. Vogelbach only has the potential to….. hit for average, have 30 HR power, and get on base at a high clip. Hardly identical.
don’t expect a callback from those GM interviews
Nobody in Chicago wants to see Kyle leave ever, he’s are all time post season homerun leader. Plus everybody wants to play for the Cubs so we can get Chapman or who ever is available after the season without giving up are farm to cashman a guy who doesn’t trade ever so he probably wants to much
This isn’t a one season window to win for this team. They are in position to contend for an extended period. Why blow your load in the first year you were supposed to contend?
Hey bob ur an idiot
My guess you take an average outfielder and put him on Yankee stadium and you have nightmare… Very hard outfield in center and left especially … Right is no cake walk either
Schwarber is a 120 rbi 45 hr .260 hitter. He is more valuable than a miller . Check out free agency , international signings and draft. Power hitters bring more money and draft higher than a dime a dozen pen guy
Andrew Miller might be the best reliever in the game, not at all “a dime a dozen”. Also Schwarber has had a good half season in MLB but to say that he’s for sure a 45 HR 120 RBI guy is absurd
So he’s a hall of famer? Cuz there’s not too many guys in MLB history that have averaged 45 HR a year.
Not sure where you pulled those numbers from- keep in mind the guy can’t hit lefties.
You’re an idiot. Relief pitchers are a dime a dozen. A guy who has shown he can put up a 40+ HR pace and has the potential to hit for average and get on base like a machine……. you don’t trade that for a friggin reliever. That’s like saying you’d trade Giancarlo Stanton for Andrew Miller. If that doesn’t make you laugh and you’d actually consider that, you are for sure, a retard. I don’t know why you think they are in a “WIN NOW” mode. You’re not the only person who has that thought though. They are the best team in MLB right now and their only hole was a left handed reliever. they got one. And you are still spewing ignorance by thinking Schwarber is some expendable utility player. HE HAD A BETTER SEASON THAN BRYANT!! Would you trade Kris Bryant for Andrew Miller? If you say yes someone seriously needs to slap some common sense into you.
Do NOT use the “r” word.
Bullpen* pitcher
Don’t talk to KB in 2040. He’s already making plans to fly out to Cooperstown that year to watch Schwarber’s induction into the Hall.
Wow you’re dumb. Schwarber is the type a player you can package for Giancarlo Stanton and you want a reliever who is 31 and has maybe 4 good years left.
The only thing it pretty much guarantees is that no one will mention Vogelbach-for-Chapman-or-Miller ever again….
the cubs can come up with other deals to get either one of those arms, or they go after former yankee boone logan
Funny thing most fun fans on here were posting fantasy trades where Vogelbach headlined a deal for Miller!
Lol
Funny
Seriously…billsbballz. I laugh at the idea that some would say Montgomery is in the same echelon as guys like Miller or Chapman because he definitely is not.
Nor is he the type of difference making arm that the Cubs need at the back of their pen.
Someone earlier on this thread pointed out that they’d deal Schwarber for Miller in a heartbeat and pointed out that a Cubs world series win would garner high volumes of $$ for the franchise. Absolutely spot on.
Cubbies better hope Theo isn’t done adding bullpen pieces because if he stops at Montgomery the Cubs are going to fall short yet again for 110 years.
The Cubs are the best team in baseball with or without Miller. Doing something stupid this year doesn’t help.
How is trading for one of the best relievers in baseball “doing something stupid”?
They’re not the best team in baseball right now either. They better pray the best team in baseball doesn’t fortify their pen with one of these guys because if they do this whole conversation will be for naught.
Beat record in baseball =|= best team in baseball.
No need to kill the farm this early. There could be someone who would be more valuable to the team next year, but if we empty the farm this year, we might not get him next year. 5 years of a guy with a sub 2.4 Era sounds well worth a power prospect like Vogy. Blackburn tipped the scales in seattles favor, but again.. 5 years. He could very likely be where Andrew Miller is by then. Win/win.
He doesn’t have a “DH only” profile. He plays a decent 1B. His range is the only thing lacking. If he gets a glove on it he’ll make the play.
Wow, always thought Vogelbach looked better in a package deal than by himself. Not sure what to think of this, Vogelbach goes directly into their starting lineup, right?
prolly dh or play first. I was confident that the cubs would of used him in a package deal to try and land andrew miller
You do realize you are just repeating yourself. It’s really not necessary. Your previous comment is still there.
Not sure, but I am sure that this means other teams can have Adam Lind for next to nothing if they are interested.
I doubt Vogelbach becomes the starter immediately. It’s likely still Lind’s job to lose.
Dae Ho Lee has had 51 starts at 1B this year and is hitting decently well, I think Vogelbach means Lind will be traded or DFA’d.
Lind has had plenty of opportunity, and he lost it.
I think it is perfect…a good 1b/DH…fair deal…allows Seattle to trade Lind now
But they also have Lee and Lind… and I thought they wanted to DH Nelson Cruz more often. There might be another move coming very soon.
This is great news for the Yankees. This trade sets the floor of what Chapman/Miller can bring back. And to think, people were suggesting Vogelbach for Chapman on here. Obviously, if Vogelbach brought back Montgomery, Chapman’s assumed value is much higher. And Miller’s even more.
The pair of Yankees relievers have a much better track record, as well as much better peripherals. There are still many teams in play which will outbid each other for premium arms.
It’s going to be an exciting week and a half.
Or it simply means Cubs fans were overvaluing Vogelbach, and it will not raise the value of Chapman or Miller at all. It simply shows that Vogelbach’s value (poor fielding 1B/DH) is not that high.
Vogelbach has five more years of control. Chapman has half of one.
*montgomery has five more years of control. My bad
Exactly, I think his value is on par with Chapman’s. Similar ERA’s, Chapman has a much better track record and superior peripherals, but Montgomery comes with much more control. Miller will fetch much more than that, but I think the Cubs made out pretty well here, and Chapman should get a slightly better, but not exponentially stronger, return
I agree with this but I don’t think it’s fair to point out similar ERA’s when one pitches in a pitcher friendly park and the other in a hitter park.
That’s a fair point, although Montgomery has been used multiple innings quite a few times, so he could possibly be more effective if he was limited to short relief duty. Either way, I wasn’t arguing that Montgomery is better than Chapman, just that contractual discrepancies make it a lot closer in trade value than some more casual fans may realize
Ahh farts. My point was correct, just wrote the wrong name.
Ahh farts again. That wasn’t my comment.
5 years of control over Montgomery. 2 months of chapman.
Chapman value is not going to be that much higher as he’s a pure rental with no compensation not to mention the fact he said he’s gonna start gun with the Yankees in the off season
Who was suggesting Chapman for Vogl? Some arm chair GM with a bias? This really doesn’t set any kind of expectations. The Mariners picked up the Cubs 20th best prospect and the Cubs acquired a pitcher who’s ERA in the minors from 2011-2015 never ended bellow 4. His first major league year is in line with his actual ability. His 2016 production is all smoke and mirrors.
Not saying it will work out the same, but people were also bashing the trades for Rizzo and Arrieta
Apparently cost and team control are non factors
Who said that? The term “value” encompasses all that.
Montgomery has more team control, but he also has a 7k/9 and 3bb/9. Chapman destroys those peripherals, and has been doing so for a much longer time. Just as early as last year, Montgomery has a 4.6 ERA and FIP.
So you’ve pretty much destroyed your own argument that this trade shows anything about Chapman or Miller.
Montgomery wss a starter straight from AA last year too if you read the article all his numbers improved a lot when he was moved to the pen this year. He had also stayed two games this year and kept those numbers down. He doesn’t have the track record but like I said just because you haven’t heard of him doesn’t mean he isn’t good.
Montgomery is still controllable for the next 5 years and will cost nothing near what Chapman or Miller will, in terms of short term future salaries.
Most Cubs fans were suggesting Vogelbach as part of a multi-player package that included another play such as Billy McKinney or Jeimer Candalario. But go on thinking what you want to think
Controllable years are also invoked with the thinking…. And for the life of me don’t see Miller going anywhere if Chapman is a free agent at end of year… That’s just common sence people. And I’m no Yankee fan but they are smarter then that
Although I do see Chapman bringing back a better return, I don’t think it necessarily sets the tone for the Chapman trade. He only comes with 2 months of control, which will cause teams to not offer as much possibly. Cubs screwed the pooch here though. They needed something to set their bullpen apart and a deal for Miller or Chapman would have done that.
I agree with what you said about how the Cubs should have been looking for a more impactful RP, but they can still go out and get someone like Chapman for this year.
Well…there goes every Cubs’ fan centerpiece for a Yankees reliever….
“Maddon comes out of the mound here in the 8th inning of the NLCS to get Arrieta…tie game…don’t worry Cubs’ fans….he’s summoned Mike Montgomery out of the pen to face Bryce Harper…”
Perfect for all the Cubs’ fans on this board..you guys win the prospect Olympics again next off-season….
looking over what Montgomery’s done so far this season, that matchup doesn’t scare me i must admit
only thing Montgomery doesn’t have that the Yankees tradebait does appears to be name recognition…
You feel confident in Montgomery to produce similar numbers for the rest of the year? Hey, maybe he will. He has so far. But if you take a look at his major league production from this year and last year and compare it to his minor league work, I think you will see which years production is more likely to repeat.
Andrew Miller’s career ERA is 4.37… he only got good when he became a full time reliever.
this is Montgomery’s first year a full time reliever, so why can’t he sustain it?
petrie000, i don’t think anyone is questioning whether it is sustainable. I think the general point is that while Montgomery MIGHT sustain that going forward, he’s not in the same echelon as those guys NOW.
If you’re in a position to win the world series for the first time in 109 years, which the Cubs appear to be and you can get a proven high end reliever/closer in exchange for a guy who really just does not fit in at any position the Cubs don’t already have filled (Yes, I’m talking about Schwarber), you do it.
Better hope the cubs add someone else…I have to imagine they will even if its not Miller or Chapman…they’re going to need a lot more help in that bullpen.
when did the myth that only elite relievers can win you WS start? seems like right around the Time the Yankees decided to dump theirs…
Cubs got exactly what they needed : and effective middle reliever. and they got it without giving up any major prospects.
is he in Miller of Chapman’s league? no, but he’s awfully close (being the 34th best in WAR for relievers, which is a pool of what, close to 200 eligible players? yeah, so terrible) and they got him at an insanely good price… which would strike me as good GMing, honestly. They didn’t need a closer and they didn’t pay closer prices for a guy they’d be using in the 7th inning
The Yankees aren’t including a rewrite of the last 108 years in the trade, so anybody who thinks the Cubs history plays any part in what they do or don’t need to do right now isn’t using his brain.
I believe it was two years ago when the Royals went to the World Series, or was it last year when they won it…?
Either way, it was before the Yankees had their trio of ace relievers.
Top 3 is pretty bold. I’d probably take Zach Britton for one inning over anyone in baseball right now, followed by Betances, Miller, Kenley Jansen, and Chapman (just barely over Brad Brach). Not scoffing at 3 of the top 5 at all, but I personally disagree at top 3
Sorry, meant that for Jake the Snake
Reliever WAR in 2016
1 – Betances
3 – Miller
15 – Chapman (with 1 month out)
34 – Montgomery
Name recognition huh?
yup, name recognition
Montgomery’s been a highly effective reliever all season
but because the casual fan’s never heard of him, well he must not be any good, right?
I don’t think anyone is saying that he’s not decent. but comparing him to Miller or Chapman right now is just dumb….he’s not close to being in their league dude.
But its fine if they want to gamble with this and maybe try to add another guy to give more pen depth….maybe that’s the play but really, I think overvaluing prospects is a dangerous game when you’re in a position to add a difference-maker.
the Yankees relievers aren’t getting hyped because they’re on the Yankees. They’re getting hyped because they’re the best three in the business right now and they all just happen to play on the same team.
And hey, if 109 years doesn’t mean anything to you then that’s fine…it means a lot to a lot of folks who know baseball.
I actually would love to see the Cubs go all the way just so I can witness that in my lifetime.
They better hope that the real best team in baseball doesn’t fortify their pen with one of these big boys because that 109 will tick to 110….111…112.
His comment went over your hear, so let me explain.
It isn’t name recognition. It’s actual performance. Just look up the stats.
Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don’t.
it IS name recognition because a bunch of desperate Yankees fans don’t want to admit the Steinbrenner logic is dead in modern baseball
the Cubs needed A reliever… that doesn’t mean they NEEDED the best reliever at any price
they got a top reliever this year for a good price… which, one would think, is the smart move considering how little relievers actually matter in terms of wins (if you wan to pay attention to the numbers).
they got 90% of Miller’s production for less than half of the price being bandied about in rumors… but no, now they’ll never win a WS because of that extra 10% of a player who only matter when they’re already winning is going to come back to haunt them
yeah, it’s all about the numbers…. sure…
So can you figure up what the difference would be over a sample of 15-20 games(the playoffs)?
Hint: it’s not a win
Excellent point
it would be a small sample size… which is basically the same as saying it’s luck
one bad game from any of the players in question could decide the series one way or another
and all relievers have a bad game every now and then, so saying the big names won’t is not arguing numbers
if all players do just what they’ve done statistically all year in the playoffs, odds are the Cubs win the game they’re used in anyway
the Royals may have won a WS with a great bullpen…. but they also lost one, which nobody seems to remember.
Boy you’ll take him over a lot of relievers wouldn’t you?
No the Yankees trio isn’t good because of “name recognition” They are good because their stats are some of the best in the league.
Do not worry Jake about the 109 year thing. Worry about how your team is falling apart. You think Montgomery is just “decent” then I guess you are not one of us “folks” who know baseball
Lmao
Yeah baby
I loved the trades where Vogelbach headlined with a few other double A relief arms
Cub fans when will you learn prospects don’t win championships
How do you know?? It’s July
Prospect don’t win championships? Well considering every player was once a prospect I feel this is ultimately the dumbest comment here today so Congrats Dude!
Oh Billyball ever hear of prospects named Jeter Williams Riveria Posada …..
Yeah your an expert. Just like the Cubs should ahve paid all that money for Price, and Zack G how that working this year? Oh lets not forget S Miller from AZ he in AAA, Arz has no farm, now they want to trade him for anyone who picks up the phone. Your a joke
KnuckleNasty,
“Perfect for all the Cubs’ fans on this board..you guys win the prospect Olympics again next off-season….” hahahaa…I love it.
Overvaluing prospects is a dangerous game, no matter how good they are. Especially guys like Schwarber who are pretty well blocked at numerous positions (OF…can’t play it, 1B is Rizzo, Catcher is Contreras, No DH in the NL).
Baez was supposedly blocked too… and Soler this off-season… these things have a way of working themselves out.
stop trying to talk Schwarber’s value down, it doesn’t bring your reliever’s value up. you want him because he could hit 40 HR’s a year in Yankee stadium and costs next to nothing for the next 5 years. All the transparent BS yankees fans use to talk down his value is pointless, because if even they believed it, they wouldn’t want him in the first place.
i don’t think not wanting to give that up for a reliever is overvaluing him at all… that would be charity to the Yankees.
While the Yankees watch the playoffs from home
Arrieta wouldn’t be down vs the nats and Harper isn’t that good in the clutch.
Hey everyone…the Mariners can also trade Vogelbach. They can trade him as soon as the papers are finalized. Seems many of you forgot.
No, we simply don’t expect it. Do you?
Yes, it would not surprise me. Cruz has DH on lock and Lee is hitting lefties and righties both at a .800+ OPS. Vogelbach isn’t the best fit on the Mariners as he would be on several other teams who would look to acquire him.
Exactly. Honestly I was hoping he’d go to the A’s for, well, relief pitching. I’d love to have Schwarber-esque Vogelbach playing on the A’s…figured he’d been a target for some time. Think this will work out great for Seattle either way…
It’s more likely he forms some sort of platoon with Lee at 1B but it definetly remains on the table. As a Mariners’ fan I like this deal and hope they choose to keep Vogelbach. The Mariners aren’t making the playoffs this year (barring some hot streak that sees them win a Wild Card spot/a collapse by the Rangers and Astros). Unless the return is someone else with control (no particular names come to mind, but other prospects or young major league guys that are established players/have some upside, would be an example of the type of return I wouldn’t mind seeing) I’d probably prefer that they keep Vogelbach.
Funny how there’s not one Cubs fan comment on this yet
Hmmm…Feels to me like the Nats will now get Chapman/Miller. Theo will be shaking his head when the Nats eliminate the Cubbies in the NLCS.
Anyone have an idea of what the Nats are offering? R. Lopez seems like too much for just Chapman and even Chapman + Beltran.
Dan Fogelberg? He plays all the hits!
Awesome!
Nice trade for the Mariners.
I’d say it’s pretty close to even.
I guess we know now how Theo felt about trading Schwarber.
Jesus Montero 2.0?
/Justin Smoak 2.0
Yep, that’s what I was thinking. For the Mariners sake I hope not.
Not really. This man has patience. Jesus Montero was an aggressive hacker
I don’t know if this correct, but wasn’t Smoak supposed to have a really good eye.
Mike Montgomery is tough against left-handed hitters since moving to the bullpen in 2016. Lefties only have a .164 BA, .269 OBP, .254 SLG and .523 OPS versus him thus far.
5 yrs of control? He’s worth close to Chapman. A good trade.
This is a disaster for Cubs fans. They’ve included Vogelbach in every trade proposal on her for the last year. Now who will they propose trading?
Torres happy and underwood
They can start with the 19 other prospects in their system that were ranked higher then Vogs. What ever will they do?!?!
This is an odd trade for the Mariners. Vogelbach could be a very good middle-of-the-order hitter but is temporarily blocked by Dae Ho Lee and Adam Lind at 1B and is blocked until 2019 at DH by Nelson Cruz. DJ Peterson was thought of as the 1B of the future before the trade with his resurgence this season. It’ll be interesting to see what moves they make to make the future more clear.
Adam Lind will NOT block Vegelbach. and Lee just turned 34. Really not much in his way.
Hence the word “temporarily”. Vogelbach was thought of a player who could help the major league team immediately once traded. DJ Peterson is also in his way (or Vogelbach got in Peterson’s way) so I wonder if one of the two become trade bait.
Just because most of you guys haven’t heard of Montgomery doesn’t mean he isn’t pretty good. He jumped from AA to a starter out of ST last year. He was moved to relief when Miley and Karns were brought in and then started a couple games when the injury bug hit our SPs. I actually wonder why this trade was made we have a player in AAA DJ Peterson who there had been talk about bringing up because he is hitting the ball so well. He is a converted 3rd bm.
Most people around here have wanted Lee to get more playing time over Lind they can trade/dfa him just get rid of him. My Son in Law saw Voglebach play in A ball and said he was not much of a fielder so mostly just a bat, maybe the Cubs fans can fill us in if he has improved. This makes me wonder could there be a team making a big push for Cruz and this be our long term DH? I would hate to see Cruz go but if we got a good enough haul for him to help down the road it would be worth it. I think Seattle should be sellers to put themselves in a stronger position down the road we have too many holes right now to go deep into the playoffs even if we get lucky enough to get a WC spot.
I’d really hate to see Nelie go, although he and Cano have good numbers so far, they always seem to strike out on a curve ball or slider every time they have a meaningful at bat late in games, mariner fans tell me if you also notice that. So like you said, If a team is all in on Cruz and send a good package you have to take it in a heart beat, anyways I think we have the same shot of making the play offs without Cruz than we do with him, because as I’ve already hinted at he’s basically completely become a strikeout or home run hitter the last few months, and I think that Zunino and Vogolbach can do that instead.
Vog blocked. Montgomery just turned 27 and is under control til 2021. Mont has been a starter til this year, so who knows over 5 1/2 seasons? Lefties .164 with 2.25 GO/AO against him. Also, there’s a AAA starter included. Zach Lee?
Great deal for the M’s but do they bring him up now ????
I think so, he’s ready. Walks as much as K’s
Lee is on a one year contract. Vol can DH/1B while at AAA. Cubs fans are downplaying Monty, but I think he’s just showing his potential. Looks like an even trade, Vol to challenge DJ and we can see who will come out as the starter next year with Lee and Lind’s contracts up at the end of the year. Or another possible trade coming…
5 and a half years of Montgomery is worth more than a half year of Chapman. Seems like a decent deal for both parties.
Well…just scrolled through the comments and see others felt the same. My bad for the redundancy
Good for Vogs!! Cubbies get the lefty bullpen arm they needed and Vogs gets a chance to make it to the show. I hope he kills it for the M’s. Montgomery has done well this year, dispite what all these “talent evaluators” on here are saying. I seem to remember Arrieta being washed up at 27 too. That’s worked out ok
Hmmm. Seems a bit much to give up for a reliever and a throw away minor league pitcher. Dan Vogelbach is a stud, and it is baffling he isn’t a more lauded prospect, and by that I mean his name doesn’t pop up on any of the many arbitrary top 100 prospect lists. IMO Vogelbach is good enough to be the centerpiece in a trade for a STARTING pitcher, not some reliever. That said, Montgomery has shown to be a solid left handed reliever and comes with 5 years of control, which IMO makes him a more attractive option than anything NY has to offer. I really don’t see a reason to and pray to God they don’t do any more trades. This should be all they need. With Edwards, Wood, Cahill, Strop, and Rondon doing very good or at least good enough, adding Montgomery gives them 6 quality arms in the pen. With both Nathan and Matusz recovering from injuries and both due to be called up sometime soon, they just don’t have the room. I’d sit tight and if both Nathan and Matusz blow after a few weeks do a waiver trade post-July 31st. I also like to think Grimm and Warren’s down years will start to correct themselves. As a reliever in NY for the previous 2 years Warren had a stellar 2.76 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP I want to say as a reliever in 2014 and ’15. FAR better than what he’s shown so far this year. Grimm had a decent first year with the Cubs in 2014, nothing special, but in 2015 he was a stud with a 1.99 ERA and I want to say a 1.10-1.15 WHIP. So if those two turn it around and Nathan and Matusz return from their injuries and pitch like their old selves…… this team now has a deeeeep bullpen.
That said, Dan Vogelbach AND Paul Blackburn, one of the few ACTUAL promising young pitching prospects they had, for Montgomery and the throw in garbage in Pries………. too much IMO. Especially after the Brad Ziegler trade. I hate to root against players especially ones I have been backing for a few years, but I guess I can hope that in Seattle’s expansive park Vogelbach’s true power is stifled and he doesn’t become the stud and potential regular all star I think he’ll be. I’ll also be rooting for Paul Blackburn to shred his UCL. If that happens then this deal becomes more leveled off IMO. At least they didn’t grossly overpay for Miller or Chapman. The fact Vogelbach had to be traded because he has nowhere to play in Chicago makes it slightly more palatable, but still…… you don’t trade him away for the sake of trading him away. Oh well. We shall see. I expect to see Vogelbach in a ML uniform this weekend. The kid is ready.
Seattle moved their fences in. They’re hitting a bunch of songs now. Vogelbach will join the launching Mariners soon!!
Wow, wishing failure and painful injury on players because they got traded away? Disgusting.
Well said….carma will come around
About as classless as one can be.
You are a head case KB.
This guy should be banned, not people like bigpapi4ever
Montgomery will probably become a starter in a year or two again. He started last year from AA and started a couple games this year. He is a3-5 type guy. I think you will be happy with him he is a good kid and better than you think.
Safeco is also a pretty good park for lefties tougher on righties do your doom and gloom is a bit misplaced and wishing injury on a player is pathetic but whatever.
Is this a Cards fan posing as a Cubs fan to try to make us look stupid? Cause I’ve never been so embarrassed by a Cubs fan.
Please get a friend so you can rant to them about wishing injuries on players and your other BS.
Dude you want Vogs to fail and Blackburn to get hurt? What he heck is your problem?
Wishing an injury on someone? Wow.
You need to grow up.
Won’t be laughing when vogelbomb is launching em into sefeco
I like Vogs and I hope he does do good. Cubs simply didn’t have a spot for him. Hes a good bat and Im glad he will finally have a chance to show what he can do
Tough break for the yankee fans holding out hope for schwarber which was always laughable You can try to fleece a desperate short sighted front office the cubs fo isn’t dumb.They got their lefty bp pitcher and can still make a bigger trade if they want.
7k/9 and 3bb/9 doesn’t exactly instill confidence in a team with hopes to go to the world series.
Plus, many teams still left that will pay for a prime reliever.
there’s never a shortage of effective relievers at the deadline if you’re willing to spend some time looking for them
fortunately for the Cubs, the curse of short-sighted front offices has already been broken
I love the fact that people are acting like trading Vogs is the end all move for the Cubs. Just a heads up, the Cubs traded their #20 blocked prospect for a lefty bullpen arm with a sub 3 era in his 1st year of relief work. Maybe Monty didn’t make it as a starter but you know who else didn’t make it as a starter and found his niche in the pen……wait….waaaaiiiit…..the great Andrew Miller. So I wouldn’t discount Monty just yet. And seeing as the Cubs still have the rest of their top 20 prospects whos to say the Cubs are done shopping
I love the fact that things like this only come from a cubs fan, comparing monte to Miller.
So they both weren’t starters who didn’t stick and found success in the bullpen??
Probably more than Rich Hill will get back for the A’s
Cashman is going to regret this one. His man crush on Schwarber blinded him to Schwarber 2.0 in Vogelbach. He could have traded Miller for Vogelbach and probably gotten the 3rd base prospect the Yankees are lacking in Candelerio (sp?) too. Let’s face facts, who knows if Bird is going to be the same player next year and if he faulters having Vogelbach as option B would have been nice. But no, he couldn’t see the forest through the trees and now the Mariners have a player that should not have been given up for a reliever. Yes, Miller is a stud and so is Chapman, but when you are talking 6 (possibly 7 if they mess with his service time) years of control of a guy who should easily hit 30 HR, with an OPS of the mid .800s and provide a solid presence to the middle of the order, for a reliever, no matter how good, is an overpay. Before anyone starts saying he is only a DH, he is only a DH, might I remind you that David Ortiz is only a DH. Would the Sox have won 3 championships without him? I doubt it. Cashman missed the boat on this one. Nice job Dipoto.
Thing is, Cashman doesn’t HAVE to trade Miller unless he gets an absolutely killer return. The Yankees are looking to contend ASAP and Miller is an absolute bargain at $9m/year with team control through 2018. If you trade a guy like that, you’ll have to turn around and try to find another one…good luck with that.
Jansen is a free agent after this year. I know the Dodgers are going to resign him but all you said was food luck trying to find a replacement for Miller. Also, they can sign Chapman in the offseason. Greg Hollands will be available soon. And Wade Davis is a free agent next year. Finally, the Yankees already have a prospect who’s slider isn’t far behind Miller’s in Lindgren. If he would stay healthy and Girardi finally takes a leap of faith with a prospect and lets him get comfortable in high leverage situations he will become a very solid back end bullpen guy. That is 5 potential replacements for Miller right there and that is just off the top if my head. Granted all of them will cost almost twice as much as Miller except for Lindgren. But, this is the Yankees and sooner or later they are gonna start spending again.
Congratulations, you basically just made Dan Vogelbach a Hall of Famer. I’m sure he’ll “easily” hit 30 HRs with an OPS in the mid .800s.
Congratulations!! You just made yourself look like the biggest jerkoff on these boards. I take the time to write a well thought out logical post and since you disagreed with it you insult my intelligence by putting words in my mouth. You could have easily said Vogelbach reminds me too much of Nick Johnson. That would have been a decent reply. But, instead you said I basically made him a future hall of famer because I thought he could easily hit 30 home runs calling Yankee stadium home? Btw, how does hitting 30 home runs a season qualify someone for the HOF? Up until about 15 years ago 500 hrs would get serious consideration for the Hall. So, at 30 hrs a season it would take him 17 years to reach 500. Since he is already almost 24 years old he has to hit 30 every year (including this one) until he is 40-41 just to get some mild consideration for the Hall. So yeah, I never said he looked like a future HOF, nor does 30 hrs a season qualify for the Hall unless you are a catcher or middle infielder. Every time someone shows a little respect towards a prospect doesn’t mean they are boasting future HOF. If you can’t even retort with a mildly interesting idea or reason for me to be able to say “you know, he’s right.” “Dan Vogelbach is indeed more of a Nick Johnson clone, than Schwarber lite.” please don’t even bother replying. Especially, with someone who has been a student of the game our entire life. There are quite a few on this site that give clear, concise, and logical posts/ideas. It’s too bad fools like you diminish it for the rest of us. The problem is people like you don’t even understand how dumb they look when writing a post like yours. So, yeah, congratulations!!
@thecoffinnail
I for one appreciate your well thought out comments. Keep them coming
So do I, but I works out better if you just don’t reply to the comment because people like that only post comments like that to cause problems like this in these discussions,
Nice move by the Cubs, no need to cave for Miller or Chapman. Although I think they still have two moves they are going to make.
Reading through these idiotic comments and I can’t believe that the general tone and consensus is that defense trumps everything else about a player. Funny thing is, Vogelbach isn’t as bad a fielder as people are making him out to be. If defense really mattered to execs explain how Manny Ramirez was allowed to wear a glove. Or how about Prince Fielder playing 1B for a decade. If you can mash, defense is arbitrary. However FEW runs you cost your team a solid offensive player will more than make up for it. People love pointing out how crappy Schwarber is in the OF. Yet his numbers out there weren’t much worse that Ryan Braun’s. Does Ryan Braun need to be a DH? Is Ryan Braun a man without a position because of his defensive issues? I say let Shwarber have more than about 70 games in his professional life, both minor league and major league, to play the OF before we all judge him as “a man without a position.” And how about while we’re at it we let Vogelbach actually play a game at 1B at the ML level before we label him “useless” in the field as well.
Vogelbach is as bad in the field as people say he is. He has been a DH since the day he was drafted.
His defense is no worse than top 1B prospect AJ Reed’s. His defense in the limited defensive stats I have seen isn’t much worse than 3rd best 1B prospect in Cody Bellinger.
I don’t get why is seems for some people defense trumps everything else about a player. Why has defense become such a focal point for everyone as of late? I mean no one freaked out about Manny Ramirez’ defense in LF. People thought it as comical. Today Ramirez would be ridiculed to death and called a bum and overrated. No one made a fuss for the 10 years Prince Fielder played 1B. Yet he has had a pretty solid career I’d say. Thing sabermetric nerds don’t realize is that if a player is even just marginally above average offensively, his offense will cancel out his woes on defense. Players easily make up for the few runs they may cost their team on defense with their offense…… and they don’t have to really be that great offensively. I mean “defensive runs saved” is pretended to be an actual stat among the sabermetric fanatics. A player is considered AWFUL if he has a negative rating because it is assumed he cost his team that many runs. So a -10 player cost his team a whopping 10 runs on defense for the YEAR. That same player, if he’s a stellar offensive player….. like, say, Rizzo, can score 100 runs and drive in another 120 or so. Assuming he hits 35 HRs, that’s 185 runs he actually did provide his team on offense and you can actually prove this…… unlike supposed defensive runs saved (or cost) which is unverifiable.
I like the idea behind DRS, but I wish they’d go about it in an actual provable, concrete way. Instead of hypothesizing this figure, I wish people would track how many runs a player actually does cost his team on defense. By that I mean every error a player makes track how many runs score as a result of that error. As in start crediting unearned runs to players, not just the pitchers. I don’t know if they already do this or not. I really don’t keep up with the sabermetric world because I think a lot of the sabermetric stats are arbitrary and most are hypothetical IMO and not actual stats at all. WAR and DRS are the biggest jokes of the sabermetric world, but there are others. That said there are some actual useful sabermetric stats out there. WAR and DRS are just ridiculous to me.
Went to the Cubs website to read the article there and the comments under that one because the comment section here is aggravating me. A good point was made in the very first comment I read. Vogelbach was likely going to be taken in the Rule 5 draft anyways since he wasn’t on the 40 man roster. Never thought of that and it is a stellar point. I feel a bit better about this trade now. Maybe Hoyer and Theo DO know what they’re doing, haha.
this is not true. Vogelbach was very much on the 40-man roster. Blackburn is the one that was rule V eligible after this year.
Took some online searching, but yeah….. you’re right. I hate this trade again. Couldn’t leave me alone could you blah blah blah. Was finally feeling content with this trade, but you had to ruin it with your “facts” and “knowledge.”
Another intriguing tidbit about Montgomery that will play VERY well in Wrigley. His GB/FB ratio which sits at 1.49. This year he has induced 103 ground balls compared to 69 fly balls. This is by far the best GB/FB ratio on the Cubs staff that I see.
Does anybody think that Montgomery could be used in a package for Miller or Chapman? The Yankees have been discussing trades with the Cubs and maybe they pointed them in that direction. Montgomery with a couple of good prospects may be a suitable package depending upon how the Yankees feed about Montgomery.
I doubt it. Why wouldn’t the Yankees just do a 3-team trade then?
I could care less about 5 years of control. It’s nice that he’s not a mere rental. But I want to win the World Series. Period. If this helps make that happen, then great.
Good trade for the Cubs. Vogelbach wasn’t going to displace Rizzo, can’t play anywhere else. He looks like a 4A player to me, especially with his complete lack of athleticism. Zero defensive value. Montgomery has good peripherals and good stuff, which has played up as he’s moved to the bullpen. Blackburn looks good, although he’s probably destined for the back of the rotation, but the Cubs, again, weren’t going to have any use for him in the next couple years, when their window to contend is open the most.
And Vogelbach has earned his opportunity to play in the big leagues. So congrats to him
Hope the Mariners give him a shot, good kid, who has worked his butt off year after year, deserves to be on a team that can give a chance to learn and make adjustments. Kid has great control of the strike zone.
Vogelbach fits the Brett Wallace profile.
Everyone criticizing this deal on the Cubs part needs to look at who else would want what they were willing to offer. Here is a list of teams who would potentially be prioritizing first base:
Rays, Oakland, Seattle, Rockies.
The Cubs wanted a left handed bullpen arm. So that means Cedeno or Romero from the rays, Rzepczynski from Oakland, Montgomery or Nuno from Seattle, Logan or Mcgee from Rockies,
McGee has injury issues and only one more year of control but perhaps the highest late game upside. Other than him, Montgomery is the most attractive and with his controllability, it makes him even more attractive than McGee. And they got him for a player who had no chance of ever playing for the Cubs. For 5 years of a high upside arm with a reasonable salary (even through arbitration) in exchange for a player that has never played in the majors and was blocked is a good deal. He won’t be better than Rizzo and he gets you what you need this year and beyond. Its a good deal.
good analysis, well said
Cheers to that. I really would have liked Boone Logan though. But Logan is a free agent after this season so its nice to have those extra years with Montgomery. I’m eager to see where Vogs lands on their prospects list
Yes, Vogelbach plays first base. But he also could be a perennial DH. Think of potentially being a white David Ortiz. I mean I hear AL fans defending and endorsing the use of the DH. Yet then when it comes to actual players who could fill that role they dismiss them as insignificant. So what gives?
Way more teams line up in a deal than the 4 you listed. I’m tired of writing long posts on here though so I’ll just make the empty statement and not support it, but the Yankees and White Sox are in need of offensive help be it either 1B or DH. And that’s just 2 teams right off the bat.
Cubs IDEALLY wanted a left handed reliever. If the opportunity to land a stellar right handed reliever I’m sure they’d take him as well. That said, you forgot to mention the injured Doolittle in Oakland who is about to undergo his rehab assignment, the fact he is currently on the DL probably lowers his asking price a decent amount, especially seeing as he has injury concerns in his past as well.
As for your projections for Vogelbach and his future. I disagree. Here are Rizzo’s minor league numbers and Vogelbach’s minor league numbers. Tell me which one belongs to said players.
.303 BA/.372 OBP/.542 SLG/.914 OPS….. 87 HRs in 1,693 ABs
,290 BA/.389 OBP/.486 SLG/.875 OPS….. 76 HRs in 1,804 ABs
To say Vogelbach won’t be better than Rizzo….. maybe a fair statement. But to imply he won’t be as good as Rizzo at least, is foolish. Vogelbach shows all the signs he could hit for a good average and get on base at a high level. He has always been scouted as having serious power potential. When he first came to the Cubs he showed it. Then he tapered off a bit for like 2 years, but now in triple A this year he has shown that power is definitely still there and very real. He currently has 16 HRs in triple A in 305 ABs. That is a pace of 1 HR per every 19 ABs. Project that over a 580 AB season and that is about 30-31 HRs. At the ML level I think he could at least be a .270+ hitter who gets on base at a .360-370 or higher clip. As far as HRs go, playing in Seattle may lower his HR potential as it does for just about anyone who plays there, but I think it is a safe bet Vogelbach in Seattle can be a 20+ HR hitter. That’s pretty solid potential, and I am being conservative. If Vogelbach plays up to his ceiling offensively he will be just as good as Rizzo…… .280+ BA, .380+ OBP, and 30+ HRs year in and year out.
That said while I still think the Cubs over paid, and I hate the rationale that they HAD to trade him just because he’s blocked….. you don’t trade guys for just anything because they’re blocked. I did read a comment on the cubs website in the comments section that brought up an excellent point. The Cubs did NEED to trade him. Not because he’s blocked and he just needs to go and whatever you get for him is good enough. He needed to be traded because he would’ve likely been scooped up by some team this winter in the rule 5 draft.
THAT said, I still would’ve preferred to see them put a player the caliber of Vogelbach in a package for a SP. My ideal situation was putting him in a package for Matt Moore in TB. Moore’s career as a whole has been lackluster and definitely not living up to his hype. He has an injury history and has struggled since coming back last year and into this year. As of late he’s put together some good starts, but still is pretty mediocre overall. That said I would’ve loved to seen them grab him and put him in the bullpen to be their left handed relief help. Then I’d hope they see similar results the Royals have seen with their Rays reject in Wade Davis. I’m not saying I think Moore will have identical success as Davis in the pen, but I bet it wouldn’t be too far off. Moore has been a better SP than Davis ever was. I’d like to think that “being better than Davis” would continue in the bullpen. Even if he “just” has a 2 something ERA and a WHIP around 1.00 in the pen I’d consider it a huge success. Moore also gives them the option of using him in a spot starter role….. .AND next year he could compete for a spot in the rotation if they so desire. I think Moore would be better utilized in the pen though. He’d likely see the usual 2 mph uptick in fastball velocity so his 95 MPH fastball would return. A 95 mph left handed pitcher in the pen……. could’ve been nasty. Instead of trading for Miller they could essentially make their own version of Miller in Matt Moore. Moore is more expensive, but comes with 3 years of control averaging $8.66M/season….. each year has a club option attached to it though making it that much better. It’s also not like money is a real issue for the Cubs.
well, looks like I failed in NOT writing a long ass post.
I respect your opinion, but wanting a first basemen and needing a first baseman are different things. Even as DH, the yankees have too many of those type of players already. And even if they don’t re-sign Tex or Beltran, they would need to release Arod to free up an everyday DH spot. With Byrd in the mix (if fully recovered next year) the Yankees would be prioritizing other positions, namely starting pitcher. So Vogelbach wouldn’t make a lot of sense for them. In terms of the whitesox, they have Abreu at first and certainly could look for a long term left handed option to platoon or play DH, but they have severe outfield needs and a player in Cabrera who has horrible defensive metrics and a bad contract. He will definitely be a DH within the next season and a half if they get any outfielders to replace him. (that being said, they should be sellers and clean up that roster, including dumping him somehow).
Moore is intriguing in the bullpen but he doesn’t have the stuff that Davis does. But yes, it could be a nice option. It truly seems the Cubs are happy with their rotation though so going after a starter and converting to a reliever may not be something they want to try late in the season to see if it works. But thats just my opinion.
I don’t like projecting what players in AAA can do in the big leagues because its a complete crap shoot. I don’t think they had to trade him just because he was blocked, but he had not future in Chicago with the team currently constructed as it is, so if the front office feels that this answers their needs, then it serves a purpose. First base production is pretty easy to find, even if you have to create a platoon to get you the production you need. However, left handed relief with a potential to be a swingman while also affordable isn’t something you get everyday, so I still think this was a really good deal for the cubs. But again, just my opinion. Just presenting what I think.
As a Cub fan I personally like the move for Montgomery, but wish we could’ve kept Blackburn. As many have stated, Vogelbach had little to no chance of seeing meaningful playing time with the Cubs barring an injury to Rizzo, so it would probably be somewhat difficult to move him without settling a bit, as it was probably pretty easy to tell that he either he stays at AAA, sits on the bench with the big club, or gets moved.
It had been reported for a bit that the Yankees had/have interest in Vogelbach, so I would’ve liked to see a deal get made for Chapman, but I don’t think the Cubs are done just yet. On another note, I’d like to know who the Cubs were trying to flip Pomeranz for, but we may never know since the Padres had to ask for Baez, and now Pomeranz has already been moved.
Also. could anyone possibly fill me in on Jordan Pries? Does he actually have any prospect value, upside, etc or is he just another Aaron Brooks type player to sit at AAA for depth purposes?
RIP Clayton Richard
Pries was just a throw in to make cubs fans feel better
Hes a throw in innings mopper upper
That’s a hell of a lot of talent to give up for a middling lefty reliever.
White Sox fans are laughing hysterically this morning over this trade.
If middling means 2.34 ERA in 61 frames with 5 seasons of control I want more middling relievers. It is nice that White Sox fans can find humor despite another failed season.
There might not be another Edger Martinez in baseball, but Vogelbach sure seems similar in terms of build and stats. That is exactly who the Mariners need at 1B, batting in their ballpark. A good trade for both teams.
Montgomery will do great. I for one can’t wait to see how Bosio can help him.
Same with Vogolbach and Edgar Martinez
if vogelbach netted montgomery imagine the price tag for andrew miller.
I’m sure vogelbomb can play a serviceable first and a double to most people would be a double for him as well..he’s a masher that walks and doesn’t strikeout…and will be perfect for Seattle next year..Montgomery just passed go so he’ll collect 200 dollars
Are you day drinking?
Let’s be honest tho..its a good trade…we as cubs fans do overhype prospects, but Epstein can draft. I was extremely high on benintendi n was hopin he fell to the Cubs but alas I’m HAPPy..see what I did there
Too hot for that! Just like vogelbombs bat!
Haven’t seen Montgomery pitch, but for a solid prospect like Vogelbach, I would have thought that they might go for a more elite reliever like Miller or Chapman….but…he does sound affordable and maybe it’s reasonable with the price of good relievers these days. He could provide some valuable LR innings, too, or blossom into a starter down the road. Curious to see what happens with Vogelbach…we should get a good look at seeing if he’s another AAAA player or if his play can translate to the bigs.
Looking back on this deal, MAJOR win for the Mariners. Some of these comments are golden. Lol