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Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

Mets Rumors: Bell, Mancini, Szapucki

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There’s not much traction at present between the Nationals and Mets on a potential Josh Bell swap, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. Bell is one of several designated hitter candidates in whom the Mets are known to have interest, but it seems as though talks between the two parties haven’t proved fruitful. Pat Ragazzo and Michael Marino of Sports Illustrated/Fan Nation report that the Mets put forth an offer for Bell and a Nationals reliever that included an upper-level minor league starter and outfielder.

The Mets moved last week to begin augmenting their DH rotation, flipping reliever Colin Holderman to the Pirates in a trade that brought Daniel Vogelbach back to Queens. Vogelbach, however, figures to be a pure platoon option, whereas the switch-hitting Bell would be an everyday option who’d push Vogelbach into a bench role. The Mets have continued to look for potential DH upgrades even in the wake of the Voeglbach deal, Martino writes, with Trey Mancini, C.J. Cron and Willson Contreras among those who might still be under consideration.

They won’t have the opportunity to evaluate Mancini today, as he’ll take a seat on the heels of an 0-for-22 swoon at the plate. That offensive freefall has dropped Mancini’s batting line from a robust .285/.359/.429 (124 wRC+) to .268/.345/.404 (113 wRC+). Mancini has still been better than a league-average hitter on the whole, but it’s a poor time for him to struggle through his toughest patch of the season, particularly from a team vantage point.

The Orioles won 10 games in a row to thrust themselves onto the fringes of the American Wild Card chase prior to the deadline, but they’ve since gone 2-4 against the Rays and Yankees in a pair of road series. Mancini’s slump obviously isn’t the sole cause of the team’s momentum slowing down, but it was a contributing factor as Baltimore dropped a few close games. It’s also suboptimal for a club that could still move Mancini prior to next Tuesday’s trade deadline; an 0-for-22 doesn’t wipe out all of Mancini’s trade value, of course, but it’s tougher for a rival front office to give up a prospect of note for a hitter in such a pronounced slump.

Cron has a robust .292/.347/.546 line on the year, but it’s questionable whether the Rockies would consider moving him when he’s cheaply signed for 2023, particularly since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against a major sell-off. Contreras seems a virtual lock to move in the next eight days, but the Mets reluctance to deal from the top of the farm system would make landing perhaps the top rental bat available a challenge.

Bell, Mancini and Vogelbach were just a handful of the Mets’ reported targets as they look to bolster the lineup, and Martino reported last week that GM Billy Eppler and his team were exploring trade scenarios involving both Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. Clearly, there’s some turnover to be expected. Martino even floats the possibility of the Mets dealing Vogelbach if they land an impact bat, although there’s no indication that’s especially likely.

The exact return the Mets might surrender in order to bolster the lineup is, of course, wholly dependent on the caliber of player on which they settle — but Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that minor league lefty Thomas Szapucki has drawn some interest from other teams as New York has poked around the trade market. The 26-year-old lefty has yielded a staggering 15 runs in just five Major League innings across the past two seasons, but Szapucki has had a nice year in Triple-A Syracuse, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a huge 31.9% strikeout rate against an 11% walk rate in 62 innings.

Those 62 frames have been scattered over 16 starts, which comes out to an average of under four innings per outing. That’s a bit of a strange phenomenon, even in today’s game, but the Mets have been cautious with Szapucki’s workload after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and season-ending surgery on his ulnar nerve last summer. He began the year throwing just two to three innings per start but has continued to build up his pitch count over the course of the year, peaking with a season-high 93 pitches back on July 6.

The Mets and other clubs may want to be cautious with his overall innings total and his pitch count on a game-to-game basis, but he’s a reasonably youthful lefty who can be controlled at least six years beyond the current campaign. Even if there’s some injury risk, he has three average or better pitches and could certainly operate as a multi-inning reliever down the road if his arm doesn’t prove capable of a starter’s workload. Speculatively, Szapucki would fit the billing of the “upper-level starting pitcher” the Mets are said to have offered to Washington in Bell talks, though there’s no specific indication that Szapucki was part of that offer.

Mets, Pirates Swap Daniel Vogelbach, Colin Holderman

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The Mets and Pirates have swapped a pair of big leaguers. New York announced they’ve landed designated hitter/first baseman Daniel Vogelbach from the Bucs, trading reliever Colin Holderman in a one-for-one deal.

New York has been on the hunt for another addition to the lineup. Team president Sandy Alderson told the New York Post last week they were seeking an upgrade at designated hitter. Vogelbach had emerged recently as a target, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports they’re still looking to add offense over the next ten days even with him in the fold.

Vogelbach had a decent showing over his three months in the Steel City. Pittsburgh signed the burly left-handed hitter to a modest $1MM guarantee during Spring Training. That takes the form of an $800K salary, a little less than half of which remains to be paid out, and at least a $200K buyout on a $1.5MM club option for next season. That option price looks more than reasonable given how Vogelbach has performed, and he’d remain arbitration-eligible for the 2024 campaign as well.

The 29-year-old has tallied 278 plate appearances across 75 games, hitting .228/.338/.430 with 12 home runs. It’s not an impressive batting average, but he’s walking at a massive 14.4% clip and hitting for strong power. By measure of wRC+, Vogelbach’s production has been 18 percentage points above league average after accounting for PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly nature.

Those kinds of numbers are par for the course for Vogelbach. This season’s .228 batting average is a career high, but he’s walked in more than 15% of his career trips to the plate and typically posts above-average slugging output. His 30-homer season in 2019 looks like a a bit of an outlier, but Vogelbach is a career .234/.358/.459 hitter against right-handed pitching. He’s done nothing against southpaws (career .137/.258/.230 line), but he’ll add a left-handed platoon option to the mix for manager Buck Showalter.

The Vogelbach pickup is the firmest indication the Mets plan to move on from at least one of Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis. The former, as a left-handed bat, seems the player most displaced by the Vogelbach addition. New York has already discussed Smith with teams like the Red Sox and Cubs, and Andy Martino of SNY wrote this morning they’re looking to deal him before the August 2 trade deadline. Smith landed on the 10-day injured list yesterday, but he can still be traded even if he doesn’t return to the field before then.

As for the Bucs, they’ll add a controllable arm who can step right into the major league bullpen. Holderman, 26, made his debut earlier this season. He’s tossed 17 2/3 innings of 2.04 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 26.9% of batters faced while inducing whiffs on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. Holderman has doled out a few too many free passes, but he’s averaged nearly 96 MPH on his sinker and gotten strong swinging strike numbers on his mid-80s cutter-slider.

Holderman has also performed well in Triple-A, posting a 2.51 ERA through 14 1/3 frames. The former ninth-round pick has fanned upwards of 30% of opponents in the minors this year, also inducing ground-balls at a huge 63.6% clip. He’s shown far better strike-throwing acumen in Triple-A than he has at the big league level to date, making him an interesting upper-level bullpen add for the Bucs.

Holderman is only in his first of three minor league option years, so the Pirates can freely shuttle him between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis for the next couple seasons. He won’t reach arbitration eligibility until after the 2024 campaign at the earliest, and future optional assignments could push that trajectory back even further.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the Pirates were nearing a deal to send Vogelbach to the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the deal was agreed upon, and was first to report the Pirates would receive Holderman in exchange.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Designate Cam Alldred For Assignment

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The Pirates announced they’ve designated reliever Cam Alldred for assignment. Pittsburgh also placed first baseman Daniel Vogelbach on the 10-day injured list and put reliever Heath Hembree on the 15-day IL. The moves clear roster space for the previously-reported promotions of right-hander Roansy Contreras and outfielder Calvin Mitchell.

Alldred just earned his first major league call a couple weeks ago. The 25-year-old made one appearance, tossing a scoreless inning against the Reds before being optioned back to Triple-A Indianapolis. He’s spent the rest of the season there, working 20 1/3 innings across ten appearances. Alldred has a sterling 1.33 ERA, inducing grounders on three-fifths of the batted balls he’s allowed.

The University of Cincinnati product hasn’t missed many bats in the minors. He has a below-average 21.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A, unsurprising for a pitcher who averaged 86.7 MPH on his sinker during his lone big league outing. Alldred has performed throughout his time in the minors, however, and he’s seen marked improvements in both his walk and ground-ball numbers thus far in 2022.

Vogelbach hits the IL due to a left hamstring strain. The team hasn’t provided a timetable for a return for the 29-year-old, who has been the club’s primary designated hitter this season. The lefty-swinging Vogelbach signed a $1MM deal over the offseason and had been off to a nice start to his Pittsburgh tenure. He’s hitting .241/.321/.457 while popping six home runs through his first 131 plate appearances.

Hembree also signed a one-year deal with the Bucs as a free agent, though he’s gotten off to a more inauspicious start. The right-hander has an 8.10 ERA through 17 appearances, walking 14.5% of batters faced. Hembree profiled as an interesting buy-low flier after striking out 34.2% of opponents between the Reds and Mets last season. He hasn’t come close to replicating that thus far, owning just a 16.1% strikeout rate in the early going.

In other Bucs’ injury news, the club transferred shortstop Kevin Newman to the 60-day IL yesterday. (The move was necessary to accommodate the promotion of Yerry de los Santos). General manager Ben Cherington announced over the weekend that Newman had suffered a hamstring injury while on a minor league rehab assignment (link via Jerry Dipaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). That’s a separate issue than the left groin strain that originally landed him on the IL last month.

Cherington indicated Newman’s new injury isn’t likely to be serious, though it has halted his rehab stint. He won’t be eligible to return to the majors for sixty days from the time of his initial IL placement on April 27. A late-June return is now the best possible outcome for the 28-year-old, who hit .250/.308/.375 in 14 games before suffering the groin injury.

Pirates Sign Daniel Vogelbach, Heath Hembree

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10:20am: Hembree’s contract guarantees him $2.125MM, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). He adds that Vogelbach’s $1MM guarantee comes in the form of an $800K salary and a $200K buyout on next year’s $1.5MM option.

9:15am: Vogelbach’s deal comes with a $1MM base salary and up to $400K worth of incentives, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The contract also contains a $1.5MM club option for the 2023 season. Vogelbach would remain under team control via arbitration even if the option is not picked up, although at that point, if the club opts against a $1.5MM salary, it seems likely that he’d be non-tendered.

7:07am: The Pirates kicked off their Tuesday by announcing a pair of signings: first baseman/designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach and right-handed reliever Heath Hembree have both agreed to one-year, Major League contracts, per the team. Vogelbach is repped by ISE Baseball, while Hembree is a client of the Ballengee Group. Right-handers Blake Cederlind and Nick Mears were transferred to the 60-day injured list in a pair of corresponding moves. Cederlind is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel tweets that Mears had surgery to clean up some scar tissue in his right elbow back on Feb. 9.

Vogelbach, 29, will join Yoshi Tsutsugo in the mix for playing time at first base and in the newly created National League designated hitter slot. The 2011 second-rounder (Cubs) has spent the past two seasons with the Brewers organization after logging parts of five seasons as a member of the Mariners. He batted .219/.349/.381 in 258 plate appearances with Milwaukee during a 2021 season that saw him hobbled by hamstring tear. Vogelbach sustained the injury when scoring from second base on an RBI single; it was a bizarre play that saw the big man pull up lame about a third of the way home but still limp home as a sleeping D-backs defense appeared unaware of its surroundings.

Oddity of that play aside, Vogelbach will bring to the Buccos plenty of pop against right-handed pitching and a lofty walk rate against both lefties and righties. He’ll quite likely be platooned, as he’s just a .135/.256/.255 hitter against southpaws, but Vogelbach has walked in nearly 17% of his career plate appearances versus right-handers while putting together a .228/.357/.442 batting line. He’s only appeared in more than 100 games once in his career, but when he did so, Vogelbach swatted 30 long balls through 558 plate appearances with the 2019 Mariners.

If things go well in Pittsburgh, the Bucs will be able to retain Vogelbach for another two seasons beyond the 2022 campaign via arbitration. He currently has three-plus years of big league service time and is out of minor league options.

As for Hembree, he’ll give the Pirates a big-time strikeout arm to install in their late-inning mix. The 33-year-old punched out a massive 38% of his opponents last year while pitching for the Reds and spent a portion of the season as the closer in Cincinnati. A nightmare stretch of games from late July through mid-August saw Hembree serve up 13 runs in seven innings, however, ballooning his ERA north of 6.00. Hembree was designated for assignment, caught on with the Mets and had a nice finish to the season, pitching to a 3.45 ERA in 15 2/3 innings with New York.

Hembree’s end-of-season ERA was still an unsightly 5.59, continuing some struggles he’d experienced beginning in the shortened 2020 season (9.00 ERA in 19 innings). However, even with the recent scuffles — which seemingly stem from an uptick in home runs allowed — the right-hander has maintained big strikeout, swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Hembree’s 30.9% strikeout rate and 21.3 K-BB% are actually better than the marks he posted from 2015-19, when he was a consistent presence in the Red Sox bullpen and notched a 3.59 ERA over the life of 238 innings.

As far as low-cost bullpen fliers go, Hembree is a particularly sensible one for the Bucs, who’ll hope he can sustain some of those strikeout gains while getting away from the home run troubles he had at more hitter-friendly settings in Philadelphia (2020) and in Cincinnati. Hembree figures to serve as a setup man for emerging closer David Bednar, joining righty Chris Stratton in that regard. If Hembree does manage to curtail the home run troubles that plagued him in 2020-21, he could well emerge as a nice trade chip for the Pirates this July.

Brewers Non-Tender Daniel Vogelbach

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The Brewers announced this evening that they have non-tendered both first baseman Daniel Vogelbach and right-handed pitcher John Curtiss. The power-swinging Vogelbach was projected to receive a $2MM salary through arbitration (by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), which the team likely viewed as redundant with a fellow lefty bat on hand in Rowdy Tellez.

Claimed off waivers from Toronto during the 2020 season, Vogelbach’s bat erupted for a 161 OPS+ during a 19-game stint with the Brewers last season. His .219/.349/.381 slash line this year, however, registered slightly below the league average (97 OPS+). The 28-year-old continued to hit the ball with authority this year and even cut his strikeout rate to a personal best 22.1%, but his defensive limitations and middling offensive performance were enough for the budget-conscious Brewers to move on. The lefty slugger can be controlled through 2025 via arbitration if he latches on with another Major League team this winter.

The right-handed Curtiss came over to Milwaukee in a last-minute deal with the Marlins this past July. The deal proved ill-fated for both the Brewers and Curtiss after just six appearances out of the bullpen, as the reliever yielded six runs and headed to the injured list with a torn UCL. The 28-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in September and is unlikely to see action on a Major League roster until 2023, at the earliest. Dating back to 2020 Curtiss carries a 2.86 ERA across 69 innings and will remain a high-upside reliever play for teams if his recovery goes as planned. The Brewers now have 36 players on their 40-man roster.

Brewers Activate Adrian Houser

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The Brewers announced they’ve reinstated starter Adrian Houser from the COVID-19 injured list. He’s starting this afternoon’s game against the Nationals. Additionally, Milwaukee recalled left-hander Aaron Ashby and optioned right-handers Miguel Sánchez and Eric Yardley to Triple-A Nashville. To create 40-man roster space, Milwaukee transferred first baseman Daniel Vogelbach from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Houser has been a reliable member of the rotation this season. The 28-year-old has a 3.55 ERA over 104 innings despite worse than average strikeout and walk rates (18.1% and 10.9%, respectively). That’s largely thanks to a massive 60.5% ground-ball rate that handily leads all MLB pitchers with 100+ innings this season. Houser hasn’t pitched in two weeks since a positive coronavirus test, so it’s not clear how deep into today’s start he’ll be capable of working. The recalling of Ashby, who’s can go multiple innings himself, could enable manager Craig Counsell to run a tandem-start setup against Washington.

Vogelbach’s transfer is entirely a procedural move. The left-handed hitting slugger has been out since June 23 due to a left hamstring strain, so his sixty-day minimum stint is already completed. Vogelbach began a rehab assignment with Nashville this week, so he should be back in the big leagues in relatively short order.

Daniel Vogelbach Out At Least Six Weeks

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June 25: Vogelbach will be out for “at least” six weeks, manager Craig Counsell announced to reporters Friday (Twitter link via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The manager added that lefty Brett Anderson is expected to miss 10 to 14 days with the bone bruise in his knee that recently landed him on the IL.

June 23:  The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve placed first baseman Daniel Vogelbach on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain and recalled infielder Keston Hiura from Triple-A Nashville.

It’s not yet clear how long Vogelbach will be expected to miss, although manager Craig Counsell foreshadowed an absence of some note last night when calling it a “significant” strain and noting that Vogelbach would require an MRI (video link via Bally Sports Wisconsin). GM Matt Arnold tells reporters that the team is evaluating not only Vogelbach’s hamstring but also his left knee (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Vogelbach sustained the injury on one of the more bizarre plays you’ll see this season. The slugger came up lame as he rounded third base but somehow managed to limp home to score anyway when the D-backs inexplicably failed to throw to the plate on a play where Vogelbach should’ve been out by some 30 to 40 feet.

While Vogelbach’s overall .216/.323/.386 slash isn’t particularly impressive, he’s been much better of late, swatting four homers and four doubles with an .816 OPS since the calendar flipped to June. Beyond that, Milwaukee first baseman have persistently struggled in 2021, so getting any production from the position in recent weeks has been a nice change of pace.

Hiura, who returns for a third stint with the Brewers this season, has played no small part in the team’s collective struggles at first base. The former first-round pick and top prospect slid over to first when Milwuakee inked Kolten Wong to a two-year deal this winter, but the offensive form that made him such a sensation as a rookie in 2019 has been nowhere to be seen. Hiura always seemed primed for some degree of regression, as his 2019 breakout was buoyed by a .402 average on balls in play, but few could’ve predicted struggles of this magnitude.

So far in 122 plate appearances, the 24-year-old has mustered only a .130/.217/.222 slash. His luck on balls in play has swung completely in the opposite direction of 2019, as he’s been plagued by a .220 BABIP in that small sample. However, Hiura’s anemic stat line is far from a matter of a poor fortune. He punched out at a 30.7 percent clip during his rookie campaign but has seen that number skyrocket to 39.3 percent so far in 2021, and his rate of hard-hit balls has dropped by nine percent as well. It’s perhaps encouraging that Hiura has maintained a 23.3 percent line-drive rate, but he’s hitting far more lazy flies than he did at his best — and the huge uptick in strikeouts is obviously glaring.

Hiura absolutely destroyed Triple-A pitching when he was first sent down to the minors this year, hitting at a .438/.526/.906 clip with three home runs and six doubles in 38 plate appearances. But he also punched out 13 times, and when he returned to the Majors on the heels of that strong Nashville showing, he looked more lost than ever. From May 24 through June 6, Hiura went 2-for-29 and struck out in 16 of 33 plate appearances. The Brewers demoted him back to Nashville.

Hiura has punished Triple-A pitchers in similar fashion since being sent back to Nashville a second time this year, albeit with one key difference. His .375/.490/.575 slash in his latest 11-game stint is nearly as impressive as his first Triple-A run, but this time around he’s showing considerably more discipline. Hiura has drawn nine walks in 51 plate appearances and struck out as many times in 51 plate appearances as he did in 38 plate appearances during his first minor league run this year (13).

It’s obviously a tiny sample from which to glean much, but the dip from a 34 percent strikeout rate to a 25 percent clip is encouraging, as is the increase from a 10.5 percent walk rate to a 17.6 percent mark. At the very least, it would seem to indicate that Hiura has made conscious strides to work on his plate discipline.

He’ll now have a chance to carry that potential change in approach over to the big league level. With Vogelbach on the shelf, Hiura ought to receive the bulk of the playing time at first base, securing one final audition before the Brewers make tougher calls with the trade deadline on the horizon. Ideally, a version of Hiura at least approximating his 2019 output would take the reins at first base and run with the job. But with Milwaukee first baseman combining for just a .197/.295/.343 batting line so far in 2021, it stands to reason that the Brew Crew will look outside the organization if Hiura can’t pick up the slack in his third go-around of the season with the MLB club.

NL Central Notes: Senzel, Pirates, Vogelbach

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The Reds still don’t have a clear answer at shortstop, but it doesn’t appear as though moving Nick Senzel back to the infield is a consideration. Manager David Bell today told reporters that Senzel is seen as the primary center fielder in Cincinnati, adding that if the club ever considered putting him back in the infield, “…we’d be missing a lot in the outfield” (Twitter link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com).

On paper at least, there’s reason to consider such a shift sensible. The Reds have a crowded outfield mix with Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos also in the mix for at-bats. Winker and Castellanos are strictly corner outfielders, but Akiyama has a long track record in center field in Japan and, ostensibly, could be viewed as a candidate for regular work in center. That’s not in the plans at this time, it seems, so they’ll look to a mix of Kyle Farmer, Kyle Holder, Jose Garcia and non-roster veteran Dee Strange-Gordon as options at shortstop. It’s a mix that could clearly use an upgrade, but at this time there’s no indication the team is aggressively pursuing alternatives.

More from the division…

  • Pirates outfielder Anthony Alford is still limited on defense following last year’s fractured right elbow, director of sports medicine Todd Tomcyzk told reporters (link via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Mike Persak). While Alford will likely be in early spring games as a designated hitter, he’s still facing some “challenges” with regard to throwing. While the Bucs will likely give Bryan Reynolds at least some time in center this season, manager Derek Shelton implied Wednesday that the current battle is more one between Alford and non-roster veteran Brian Goodwin. That was before the club’s acquisition of Dustin Fowler from the Athletics, however, so it’s likely that the newly acquired former top prospect is now in the mix as well. That seems to leave Reynolds as the primary left fielder and Gregory Polanco looking for a bounceback in right field. Both Fowler and Alford are out of minor league options, so they’ll need to make the Opening Day roster (or be placed on the Major League injured list) to avoid being designated for assignment again.
  • There’s still no indication that the National League will be able to deploy a designated hitter in 2021, but Brewers skipper Craig Counsell is still rooting for a late agreement to change that, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Though Counsell has previously been against the NL DH, the manager noted that for the Brewers roster, as currently constructed, it would be beneficial. That’s largely because of the presence of Daniel Vogelbach, who mashed in 67 plate appearances as a Brewer late in the 2020 season but was pushed off a potential regular role at first base when Milwaukee signed Kolten Wong, thus sliding Keston Hiura over to first base. As McCalvy notes, if there’s no late agreement on a designated hitter, it’s possible the Brewers could cut Vogelbach loose. He agreed to a $1.4MM to avoid arbitration over the winter, but the Brewers would only owe him 30 days’ salary ($226K) if he’s cut in the first half of Spring Training or 45 days ($339K) if he’s cut in the second half of camp. If Vogelbach makes the Opening Day roster, that entire $1.4MM salary would be locked in.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/2/20

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With the non-tender deadline coming today at 7pm CT, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance.  In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections.  Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market.  Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

Earlier Agreements

  • Twins righty Jose Berrios will earn $6.1MM with a $500K signing bonus in 2021, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Catcher Mitch Garver will rake in $1.875MM, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM) and reliever Taylor Rogers (terms not released) also agreed to deals, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
  • The Phillies have deals with starter Zach Eflin ($4.45MM) and relievers Hector Neris ($5MM), David Hale ($850K) and Seranthony Dominguez ($727,500), Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Heyman and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com relay.
  • The Marlins and first baseman Garrett Cooper have a $1.8MM agreement that could max out at $2.05MM with performance bonuses, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.
  • The Brewers are keeping catcher Manny Pina in the fold for $1.65MM, according to Heyman. They’re also retaining first baseman Daniel Vogelbach for $1.4MM, Nightengale reports.
  • The Giants and outfielder Austin Slater have a one-year, $1.15MM deal, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.The club also reached a $925K agreement with lefty Wandy Peralta and a $700K pact with righty Trevor Gott, Heyman tweets.
  • The Cubs are bringing back hurlers Dan Winkler ($900K), Colin Rea ($702,500) and Kyle Ryan ($800K), Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Ryan’s agreement is a split contract that features a $250K minor league salary.
  • The Mets are retaining lefty Steven Matz for $5.2MM, Nightengale tweets. Matz had a brutal campaign in 2020 with a 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP over 30 2/3 innings in 2020, but the Mets will give him a chance to rebound.
  • The Padres and lefty Matt Strahm have a one-year, $2MM deal, Nightengale reports. Strahm gave the Padres a 2.61 ERA/4.93 FIP in 20 2/3 innings in 2020.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia, whom the Mets claimed from Pittsburgh in August, will earn $1MM in 2021, according to Nightengale.
  • The Astros and reliever Austin Pruitt have settled for $617, 500, per Heyman. The right-hander missed the season with elbow issues.
  • The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a one-year, $8.05MM deal with $250K in incentives, Nightengale reports. Soler was a 48-home run hitter in 2019, but his production went backward this past season, in which he slashed .228/.326/.443 with eight HRs in 174 trips to the plate.
  • The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. Barnes has been a solid reliever as a member of the Red Sox, though he yielded more than five walks per nine and upward of four runs per nine in 2020. Brasier was more successful this past season, as he tossed 25 frames of 3.96 ERA/3.15 FIP ball and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Plawecki had a nice year as the backup to Christian Vazquez, as he batted .341/.393/.463 in 89 PA.
  • The Giants and southpaw Jarlin Garcia have settled for $950K, according to Heyman. Garcia is coming off an 18 1/3-inning effort in which he posted a near-perfect 0.49 (with an impressive 3.14 FIP) and 6.87 K/9 against 3.44 BB/9.
  • The Marlins have agreed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal with first baseman Jesus Aguilar, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The 30-year-old slugger put up strong numbers in his first year with the Fish, slashing .277/.352/.457 with eight long balls in 216 plate appearances.
  • The Giants and outfielder Alex Dickerson settled at a year and $2MM, tweets Nightengale. The 30-year-old slugger has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent in limited work with the Giants, including a .298/.371/.576 slash in 170 plate appearances this past season.
  • Luis Cessa will be back with the Yankees on a one-year deal, tweets Nightengale. He’ll earn $1.05MM. The righty notched a 3.32 ERA and 3.79 FIP with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings this past season. Fellow righty Ben Heller will also return, the team announced, though it didn’t disclose financial details.
  • First baseman Matt Olson and the Athletics settled on a one-year deal worth $5MM, tweets Nightengale. The 26-year-old Olson’s .198/.310/.424 slash was an obvious step back from his 2019 campaign, but he’s still viewed as a vital part of the club’s future moving forward.
  • The Braves and righty Luke Jackson agreed to a one-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The 29-year-old was rocked for a 6.84 ERA in this year’s shortened slate of games but posted a 3.84 ERA and 3.24 FIP with better than 13 K/9 as one of the team’s steadiest relievers in 2019. The contract is valued at $1.9MM, per a team announcement.
  • The Brewers are bringing back catcher Omar Narvaez for one year and $2.5MM, Heyman tweets. Narvaez was a very good offensive catcher from 2o16-19 with the White Sox and Mariners, but he struggled last season after the M’s traded him to the Brewers. Thanks in part to a career-worst 31 percent strikeout rate, Narvaez could only muster a .176/.294/.269 line and a paltry two HRs in 126 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s in line to return to the Brewers for a second season.
  • The Brewers have agreed to a one-year, $2MM contract with shortstop Orlando Arcia, Nightengale relays. Arcia endured serious struggles on offense in prior years, but the 26-year-old managed a respectable .260/.317/.416 line with five home runs over 189 plate appearances this past season.
  • The Phillies and catcher Andrew Knapp have reached a one-year, $1.1MM agreement, per Nightengale. Typically a light-hitting backstop, Knapp batted a career-best .278/.404/.444 in 89 plate appearances in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 catcher on a Phillies team that could lose J.T. Realmuto in free agency.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It was the second year of arb eligibility for Gonzalez, whose glovework will earn him a contract despite a brutal .227/.255/.359 batting line in 193 plate appearances in 2020.
  • The Royals and Hunter Dozier agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.72MM in entirely guaranteed money, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  More is available to Dozier via contract incentives.  Dozier hit .228/.344/.392 over 186 PA after missing over the first two weeks of the season recovering from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • The Red Sox agreed to an $870K deal with right-hander Austin Brice for the 2021 season, as per Nightengale.  Brice posted a 5.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 5.9 BB/9 over 19 2/3 innings in his first season in Boston, and was considered a potential non-tender candidate.
  • The Twins and righty Tyler Duffey agreed to a one-year, $2.2MM pact, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports.  According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Duffey’s deal is fully guaranteed.
  • The Braves agreed to a one-year, $900K deal with southpaw Grant Dayton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Dayton had a 2.30 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Johan Camargo on a one-year, $1.36MM deal.  Camargo was thought to be a non-tender candidate after struggling to a .222/.267/.378 slash line in 375 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he will return for a fifth year in Atlanta.
  • The White Sox and left-hander Jace Fry agreed to a one-year deal worth $862.5K, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Fry posted a 3.66 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, and 11.0 K/9 over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, and he has strong overall career numbers against left-handed batters.
  • The Orioles agreed with second baseman Yolmer Sanchez on a one-year deal worth $1MM, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Baltimore claimed Sanchez off waivers from the White Sox at the end of October.  A Gold Glove winner in 2019, Sanchez was non-tendered by Chicago prior to last year’s deadline, though after signing a minors deal with the Giants, he returned to the White Sox on another minors deal and appeared in 11 games on the South Side.
  • The Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $700K with left-hander Caleb Thielbar, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports (via Twitter).  2020 marked Thielbar’s first taste of MLB action since 2015, as the southpaw worked his way back from independent ball to post a 2.25 ERA, 2.44 K/BB rate, and 9.9 K/9 over 20 innings for Minnesota.
  • The Dodgers and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen this season, recording an equal number of walks and strikeouts (nine).  The southpaw was thought to be a potential non-tender candidate given his relative lack of usage and his non-inclusion on the Dodgers’ playoff roster, but the team will retain Alexander for his second arb-eligible year.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) adds the noteworthy detail that Alexander’s $1MM salary is fully guaranteed, as opposed to the usual contracts for arbitration-eligible players that allow their teams to release them prior to Opening Day and only pay a fraction of the agreed-upon salary.
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