Starting pitching is still “severely overpriced” on the trade market, according to scouts who spoke with ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link) at the Futures Game. “You want to get a guy who’ll pitch for you in the postseason. Teams want to trade you a No. 5 starter who might help you get to the postseason,” said one scout who works for a contending club. Eight starters landed on the latest edition of the Top 25 Trade Candidates list from MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, though of that octet, only a few seem like they would be real difference-makers in a playoff series. Here’s more from around baseball as we wrap up the first half…
- In another tweet from Crasnick, he describes the chances of the Braves trading Julio Teheran as “not likely” unless Atlanta significantly lowers its asking price before the deadline. Given that the Braves reportedly want more for Teheran than they received from the D’Backs in the already-infamous Shelby Miller trade, it’s not hard to see why teams are balking at such a huge asking price. (And it’s also clear why Atlanta would demand so much for a controllable young arm with ace potential.)
- Clayton Kershaw will miss at least one start after the All-Star break as the Dodgers’ ace is still recovering from his back injury. L.A. manager Dave Roberts lined up his post-All-Star break rotation for reporters (including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick) and Kershaw wasn’t in the mix, as the star lefty just threw off a mound today for the first time since June 26. Early reports about his DL placement suggested Kershaw could miss up to a month, so while today’s news wasn’t necessarily a surprise, it’s possible he could return in the latter half of the 10-day road trip the Dodgers will face after the break.
- Speaking of NL West stars on the DL, Bruce Bochy provided some updates to the media (including Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News) about some notable Giants. Joe Panik is recovering well from concussion symptoms and could be back for the Giants’ series with the Red Sox that begins on July 19, while Hunter Pence could begin a minor league rehab assignment next week as he recovers from surgery to fix a torn hamstring. Matt Duffy’s strained Achilles tendon in his left foot is still causing him problems when he runs in a straight line, so his timeline is uncertain though Duffy can perform other baseball activities with no issues.
- Kenta Maeda exceeded the 100-inning plateau in his start today, thus unlocking another $250K bonus in his Dodgers contract (hat tip to ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla). Maeda is only guaranteed $3MM per season from 2016 through 2023, though he can collect significant bonuses based on innings pitched, starts and making the Opening Day roster. Thus far, Maeda has received an extra $1.65MM in bonuses this season. Even if he maxes out those bonuses over the eight years under contract, Maeda is already looking like a bargain for the Dodgers given how well he has pitched in his first MLB season.
- With today’s MLB Futures Game in mind, ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) details seven prospects from the game who could be trade chips at the deadline.
I hope Atlanta keeps the price high on Teheran. I think he is a good young arm that can build into a solid 2 or be one heck of an obvious overpay.
I don’t think he’ll ever be a true ace, but fringe 1-2 guy. More a 2 than a 1, he’s also cheap, so that’s all you could ask for.
You couldn’t get #4-5 pitchers in the market for his salary.
Fringe 1 is almost an Ace. 2 is almost an Ace.
Stupid Diamondbacks screwed up the pitching market, possibly for years, with the Shelby Miller overpay. Now every team is looking for Dansby Swansons in return for their mid-rotation pitchers.
Cue all the Braves fans wanting Moncada Benintendi and five other prospects for Teheran
Looks like I’m going to have to start pitching…. Maybe once I get a couple practice throws in iI’ll be worth Kershaw and Trout in a three team trade.
I understand there’s no way this would happen, but I just want throw something out there to see which team hates it the most.
Chapman for Benintendi
Can the Yankees stand gift the Red Sox a back of bullpen of Chapman and Kimbrel more than the Red Sox can hand the Yankees a young, middle of the order bat?
Won’t happen, for a multitude of obvious reasons, but I’m just curious to see which team would loath it more in this hypothetical.
In the hypothetical universe you describe, the potential years of Benintendi’s performance surrendered vs. the half season and *maybe* additional years of Chapman via an extension would probably make this one tougher for the Red Sox.
No, because Chapman is a rental for a few months, the dollar values aren’t even close for that trade. And Benintendi is already an MVP candidate according Red Sox fans.
Not a Red Sox fan but he does have all star potential. At his worst he’ll be a solid everyday player but his ceiling is a perennial all star who could win a couple of MVP’s. Comparing his trade value to chapman’s isn’t intelligent in any way.
I think we need to focus on the need… SP… Chapman very good piece thou but controllable years, big issue with this one
lol that’s funny I don’t think Benintendi is a future MVP but the years of control of a very solid outfielder who can hit and actually play center field is very valuable.
I am a Ranger fan and we need a SP as much as any team and there is no way that I would want them to include any of our top 3 guys mentioned Profar,Gallo are Brinson for Teheran. If they could work a deal around Luis Ortiz,Ryan Cordell,Travis Demeritte and a few more minor pieces I would be on board. I think Teheran is a good 3 marginal 2 but no way he is a 1. We have Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish both better than he is so he would slot in as a 3 for us right where he should be.
You act like you’d control both sides of the deal. It will not be working that way. I doubt the Rangers end up making a deal but expect it to be a combination of players you wouldn’t want to move.
Then seriously go after rich hill. He can be a MOR arm for y’all. He sounds like a better fit than Teheran.
I still believe the Yankees match up best with the Braves on a Teheran deal. Sanchez, Acevedo, Refsnyder & Dustin Fowler for Teheran.
Absolutely not. You’re saying 1 pitching prospect, a catcher and two infielders who ceiling is platoon player will get him? Braves would want Severino, Judge and Mateo.
Yuck — please stay away from NYY. Absolutely agree on Severino.
I am being a realistic Brave fan and stating what I believe would be a fair return. The 2nd best catching prospect in baseball with the best offensive potential for the position. A pitching prospect that hits triple digits. A MLB ready bat without a true position and a CF prospect that projects 20 HR potential. I would just assume keep Julio but I don’t see the match with the Red Sox and the Rangers seem to be reluctant to give up Brinson as a centerpiece. And the Cubs fans seem to be not very high on Teheran. At least not high enough to move Contreras as a centerpiece.
CHC would be higher on him if there was more of a need. They’ve gotten solid production out of 5 arms in their rotation. They can use their prospects on another need when that time comes.
My gosh people, a big reason the Braves asking price is so high is because they don’t even want to trade him regardless of his worth which s obviously up for debate. Teams need pitching and so if they Teheran then the Braves want what they want plain. And simple
It’s hilarious that they can say he’s not available endlessly, there’s still someone that will inquire and will not want to overpay for him. And then ATL is insane for valuing him so high. Hilarious.
Exactly, they are under no pressure to trade him, and to get him, it will have to be a massive overpay
I like the idea of getting some offensive prospects from Boston, but still like a reasonably priced #2 moving forward. If Teheran is traded, in two years Coppy will be shelling out a kings ransom to get a similar pitcher back.
That’s specifically why his price is so high. But, if things work out according to plan (and they rarely do), in 2 years we’ll know what we have in a few prospects that hopefully can either replace Teheran’s production or solidify around it. For ex: Folty and how in a few starts he’s put up ace-like numbers, including yesterday vs. CHW. He’s the only one that’s really put up TOR production that the front office is excited about what the rotation can look like in 2-3 years.
I think Wisler may be that guy already to take JTs spot in two years. He’d have a couple more wins with any kind of run support, not to mention some of the recent defensive miscues that have affected his ERA. He’s pretty much where JT was 2013/2014.
His ERA is 4.47, his fip is 4.42, and his xfip is 4.83. Defensive contributions seem to even out over the totality of his year to date
I really hope the irony of the Teheran trade value isn’t lost on anyone. Teheran was signed by a great extenstion by GM Frank Wren, who was fired, among other things, for devastating the Braves farm system, which new GM John Coppolella is trying to rebuild, and would help by trading away Teheran and his great extension to BOS (with Frank Wren as VP). If Dombrowski wants to blame anyone for how high Teheran is valued, he should thank is right-hand man.
Even if Teheran is nothing more than a #3 or #4 starter in Boston (saying that loosely for argument sake), That contract will make him the best 3/4 in the leauge b/c of the money RS will save over signing damn near anyone else. The real value comes in future dollars they can spend on anyone player they need (Bryce Harper maybe????)… That’s flexibility you can bank on.
Boston doesn’t need flexibility, we sell the most expensive beer and tickets. We can afford free Agency without trading our farm away.
I’m glad you get to pay so much for beer but every team desires flexibility. Don’t be daft.
Young cost controlled players is flexibility. We can afford Pablo sandoval doing nothing because we have Mookie, JBJ and Xander all on cheap deals. We are better off having cost controlled Beni and Moncada, who will be cheaper together than Teheran.
The argument of cost control doesn’t really work when you’re talking about 6 cheap years of multiple elite prospects. We’re better off in terms of flexibility if we keep our prospects.
Trading our future isn’t worth a little bit of financial flexibility.
And neither of those pitch. Way to solve problems you don’t have.
In terms of finances, sure. But having Moncada and Beni does nothing to help your glaring weakness in the rotation, unless you use that cost savings on a free agent pitcher – but that is a long-term solution and not this year.
It’s odd how some of these Braves fans continuously say how overhyped the “hall of fame” Sox farm is, yet they want half of these prospects in a deal for Teheran, and get salty when they’re told it’s not happening. Why get mad, they’re just prospects, right?
Pretty odd take. Strange shades you wear.
I hope the braves keep him. They’re going to stay bad for the foreseeable future, less competition.
That they are.
We aren’t “salty” as you put it. As a Braves fan I’ve watched Atlanta trade away talent and obtain a ton of prospects over the last year. I could care less if Atlanta gets any of Boston’s prospects, in fact I’d rather have Teheran. But if DD caves in and overpays for Teheran then so be it. It’s a win-win the way I see it.
Swihart, Owens and Shaw + one of Devers or Espinoza is a pretty big haul not sure if Braves would take it though, as Swihart and Owens values are both down, they are not failed prospects yet by any means though. I just wish I knew is Swihart done as a catcher or could he still develop his catching on the right team, was he moved due to lack of ability or team needs? Moncada is not happening I’ve already said financially why it would never work the Braves would have to send like 30 million dollars with Teheran, for Moncada. Benintendi is a nice piece to focus on, no reason the teams can not get together on a “overpay” even with out involving Moncada or Beni.
The Braves get 2 lottery tickets who may both need a change of scenery, a young cost controlled MLB player and a top 100 prospect, the Red Sox don’t give up either of their untouchable guys, and give up guys who do not look to have a long term future on the Red Sox to begin with. Seems like what both teams want.
The only thing is low minor prospects like Devers and Espinoza while they have very nice high side are further away than what Coppy has declared he had an interest in. As mentioned Swihart has given doubt about his long term viability as a catcher. Owens has not performed well in AAA and has struggled mightly finding the strikezone. Many consider Travis Shaw as Middlebrooks 2.0. Personally if I was the braves GM i’d say no quickly.
Lots of risk and question marks involved.
The bottom line is Boston has pieces available, I’m sure Atlanta is asking a huge price it will all boil down to if they can get creative and work something out that is acceptable to both teams. I personally think there is little chance of it happening.
I think the Risk balances out for both sides no one is sure Teheran can succeed in the AL East even to a #3 or 4 Standards.
The braves are bad, will be for a while, and have lots of holes. They’re exactly the type of team that should be willing to go for higher upside lower level prospects. That system lacks any real difference maker type of talent.
While the Braves are certainly bad this season, and they have lots of holes they are also already dealing with a lot of bad publicity right now in their market area. Not everyone is thrilled with the team leaving Atlanta for Cobb (although I admit that despite adding another 30 minutes or so to my already long drive, I absolutely despise where the current stadium is). Also many fans totally hate the braves record and the fact that they have dealt so many ‘recognizable named players’ away in the last year and a half. A lot of fans are even far less knowledgeable than the posters here. Personally I think the only way the Braves make a deal involving Teheran is if there is absolutely little doubt from the experts AND the public’s point of view that they win the trade.
As I’ve said many times, I just don’t see it happening even though the pieces are there.
The system lacks any difference maker type of talent? WTH? Is that why Keith Law rated it as the top farm system in baseball? Even above the precious Red Sox. Swanson and Albies aren’t potential difference makers? The Braves don’t have numerous arms with top of rotation stuff that will be difference makers? LOL. What in the world are you talking about? Not to mention guys farther out like Kevin Maitan and Derian Cruz. The system is absolutely loaded with difference makers. Good grief. Get a clue.
They also just had 6 guys named to Baseball America’s midseason top 100 list. It could easily have been higher.
They have lots of depth and prospects with high floors. System ranking =/= difference making talent.
They have what, 2 or 3 60fv prospects and none higher?
Swanson is an advanced college hitter who should stick at a premium position, high floor, not really a difference maker. Albies profiles as a good defensive player with no power, not a difference maker.
How many of those “potential torp arms” can throw enough strikes and actually command their pitches to any sort of degree that will allow them to be more than mid rotation starters? None?
Continue to overvalue your players though. I will enjoy watching that franchise be miserable for years and laughing at all of the braves posters from this site.
Wow. So now Albies isn’t a difference maker because he has no power? LOL. Yeah, he’s only a 19 year old hitting .397 at AA. who plays excellent defense and has great speed. No difference maker there. I could go deeper, but it’s obvious you don’t know what you’re talking about, as usual. The Braves have a ton of pitchers with TOR stuff. Touki is coming around. Allard has looked great. Fried is rounding back into pre-TJ form. Soroka just made the BA top 100 one year removed from the draft. Stay ignorant. It’s comedy gold.
Aren’t you a Cubs fans? That’s priceless. Talk about misery. LOL. Maybe your terrible laughingstock franchise will win a WS this century.
I have to wonder what you consider to be difference makers? Maybe they are only players that wear cubs jerseys? If so they haven’t made much of a difference, at least not since 1945…
As for the Braves farm system, the consensus has them in the top 5 in all of baseball, I don’t think I’ve seen it lower than that.
2 or 3 60s? No try 5 at 60 and 1 at 65, and that’s last February. 34 surplus WAR according to Fangraphs, 5th in baseball. But who needs facts right? The made up stuff supports your argument so much better.
On the Braves Swihart is most certainly a catcher he would arrive and be there catcher for the next 6 years until they could not afford him. The Sox still look at him as a catcher but thought they had an elite defender and with there offense were willing to sacrifice offense for elite defense. Now Vasquez is back in the minors because he can’t hit a lick and sure Boston still looks at Swihart as there future catcher hell he was a good enough athlete to pick up left field on the fly and play it well that doesn’t sound like a diminished asset to me.
Arizona had a catching prospect named Peter O’Brien, a top hitting prospect. His team has now deemed him an OF. Would you say that O’Brien has more value, equal value, or less value now that he’s an OF? Atlanta had a young catcher named Gattis. Does he have more value as an OF, at 1B, or at C (where he is not good enough to play every day)? Atlanta gave up Gattis because they wanted someone behind the plate that was better defensively. Now ask yourself why Swihart would still be an A level prospect, and why Atlanta would be interested in him.
Good points but totally different situations. The Red Sox believed that they had an elite defensive catcher in the Vein of Molina on there hands and decided that they can go with lower offensive production at catcher because they have one of the very best offenses in the game. Swihart will be a catcher his defense according to Fangraphs last year as a catcher was above average. He is a very good athlete so DD decided let’s try him in the outfield because Sox had a huge bust in left field with Rusney Castillo and felt that he would help them right away. They have since sent Vasquez down because he can’t hit and when Swihart comes off the DL my guess is he will be catching again. So let’s see if I’m right but I am quite sure he would be Atlanta’s catcher right away if traded. Just my opinion we will see.
Also just a quick check of defensive metrics on both of O’brien and Gattis and not even close to Swihart’s defensive abilities according to advanced defensive metrics O’brien and Gattis were negative WAR defenders every year while Swihart was positive. Apples and Oranges defensively.
I 100 percent agree on what you said. Teheran is realistically a 2 on a very good salary. Even as a 3 it would be a good salary. The Braves should be in no rush to move him. Keep the price high. If he doesn’t get the value front office wants, so be it. They still have Teheran.
I am a bit stunned about how much heat and hot takes fly around the comments sections on this site when it comes to Teheran. It’s like this guy is the second coming of Christy Mathewson or something. (And yes, I know a Braves fan has actually compared Teheran to Mathewson). So objectively:
1) Teheran is a good, not great, pitcher. He has outperformed his peripherals by quite a bit; regression is due, like it always is. This doesn’t mean he is a bad pitcher; just not an “ace.” Which is no insult; there are only 10 or 12 aces in all of baseball.
2) The Shelby Miller trade can’t be used as a comparison for anything. The D-Backs have a dreadful front office. They didn’t even know, when they signed Yoan Lopez, that they were going to be barred from the full bonus pools for J2 signings for two years after. Let that sink in; this is a major league front office that didn’t understand the rules about international signings as recently as two years ago. And they continue to claim Lopez is a “top 3” prospect in any organization, when no scout even sees him as a major leaguer.
3) Okay, back to that Miller trade. A terrible front office, after already selling off one of its best prospects earlier that year (Toussaint) then traded three very good players for a mediocre pitcher who was screaming “regression” and has been absolutely awful this season. Arizona doesn’t know what it’s doing and is very stubborn about it. That trade shouldn’t be any indicator of what Atlanta could get for Teheran. You can’t take the lowest common denominator and assume that’s what every trade should be.
4) Boston isn’t trading Moncada or Benintendi. What they are doing, especially Moncada, is special, and the Red Sox have had pretty good luck with prospects over the last several years.
5) Atlanta doesn’t really need to trade Teheran. He’s young and cheap.
Well as a Christy Mathewson collector I can tell you he’s no Mathewson! That said, he’s an amazingly valuable piece to nearly any team (exception may be the Cubs but possibly Pirates and Indians). No team deserves him via trade that won’t part with an overpay b/c that’s the market value.
The Braves should be asking a lot for Teheran he is young, cheap and under years of control. The teams looking at him are looking at him for the long term and also bc this years free agent market for pitching is terrible. The Braves don’t need to move him but if some one offers you enough to trade him then do it!
People need to recognize that the Red Sox have a deeper farm system than some other teams. The fact that the Braves are not accepting “B-Level prospects” makes total sense. But people are asking one of Moncada/Benintendi, who are highly touted prospects, along with one of Espinoza and Devers, and are associating Espinoza and Devers as second tier prospects. Espinoza is listed as the #15 prospect in the game and Devers at #41. I’m not one of those guys who thinks “THE RED SOX FARM SYSTEM CONTAINS 10 HOFers and 25 all stars, but the fact that people think Teheran is fetching 2 top 50 prospects, at least 1 top 100 prospect, and more, is utterly insane.
Sure but the Braves are in the drivers seat not Boston. Last year the jays were asking about one of the Indians young studs the Indians wanted Stroman Norris Hoffman etc the Braves don’t need to move Teheran and neither did the Indians it’s pay more then market value or no deal
I agree. For a package like Mon/Benni/Dev, I would expect someone like Chris Sale to be on the other end. Im a big Teheran and Braves fan but I’m under no delusion that Teheran should get a Chris Sale type package.
Chris Sale would require much more. For Teheran, its market value. Enjoy overpaying to get Rich Hill back. I’m sure his arm will handle the additional innings of being a starter this year with no difficulties.
Yeah I understand that the Braves don’t need to trade him, but even a package that doesn’t include Moncada or Benintendi could still be a good deal for the Braves, as it could have 2 top 100 prospects in it and more.
Tehran becomes extremely more valuable in the offseason. The thin market this winter will create some interesting trades. The braves really have no need to trade Tehran right now unless someone makes it painful not too. There will always be a team who wants to win the offseason in look for a quick fix. The Miller trade didn’t ruin the market. It’s quite clear that age and contract status made Tehran quite more valuable to the braves than Miller. The Miller trade wasn’t insane because of the prospects. It was insane because it was Miller. Tehran is a different guy. Whether he’s 1-2 or even 3, disagreements on that don’t matter. So when the braves want a kings ransom for Tehran yeah I can’t disagree with that. The Braves in Tehran and the Rays are in the proverbial cat bird seat with potential assets.
You can probably add the A’s to that but who knows..
I agree with this thin starting market statement. It’s amazing to me that Teheran is the most valuable starter available. Yes he is a nice pitcher on a very friendly contract but to be as valuable in the returns that Atlanta seems to want wow. If I was Chicago I would throw Sale out there if Teheran is this valuable my god how valuable is Sale?
I think it’s just Atlanta’s way of saying Teheran isn’t available, at least for prospects. Coppollela said he wants a major league proven bat in return of “comparable age and contract”, which is a trade that just won’t happen at the deadline.
Now in the offseason it’s more likely that they can find a trade partner that will give them what they want. But I see it more like they trade Teheran even up for a major league proven bat instead of another teams top prospects. It’ll probably still be an overpay in the minds of most, but probably not to the extent that Atlanta has supposedly asked Boston for.
I do agree with you that Atlanta doesn’t really want to trade Teheran which is why if here there is a deal reached with someone I would cringe at what it will cost.
Idk about that there seems to be different motivations for the Braves. They still have to open a stadium.
Or how valuable is Quintana he is on a very team friendly contract and a better pitcher then Teheran.
Or how about Quintana if Teheran is that valuable how valuable is Quintana? What’s Sox should get a ton of return for him.
But that’s the thing are any of those guys actually available.
You’d have to assume that Quintana, Tehran, Archer to be in demand. The question then becomes the motivation for teams to move them.
They seem to be as available as Teheran. Anybody is available for the right price. I’m just saying I don’t think Teheran is actually available unless there is a gross overpay to the point that every sports publication in America crucify’ the trade the way that Arizona got crucified in the analysis and most GM’s don’t want to be mentioned with Stewart.
I really think the sox should sell pitching, but they wont. They could be worth a ton to that team, and they aren’t real competitors, but their front office seems to think they are. By unloading the talent they have, they could probably jump start a pretty quick rebuild, but I don’t see them doing that. They will continue to be a pretty bad team and waste the cheap and best years of those two pitchers careers.
I completely agree with you I don’t think they are good enough to make the playoffs and too many good young teams to pass to get there. It’s tough for an orginization to admit that though.
Its always hard for a team to trade that once in a lifetime player. For the Whitesox, its Sale, for the Angels, Trout, for the Tigers, its Miggy. It should take a lot to trade them. They are the players that helped sell the season Tickets and got/will get them their TV deal. Those are things that never seem to be taken into account in any of these trade proposals.
I do agree with that well said.
That’s a difficult situation to be in. There are some pieces to work with but a ton of needs. The farm probably won’t provide much relief. There’s an obvious need in two of positions, c, sp, and relief. To be honest they probably have to take on money to fill some of their needs and turn to the offseason. Quintana is hard to trade because how many holes can be conceivably fill without hurting an already top heavy rotation. Trading Quintana might represent maybe having to blow it all up. You have to respect Sale and potentially give him a chance to win. I don’t think they can win this season. They can depending on the moves made in the offseason but if you get in the playoffs with Sale and Quintana you never know.