Starting pitching is still “severely overpriced” on the trade market, according to scouts who spoke with ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link) at the Futures Game. “You want to get a guy who’ll pitch for you in the postseason. Teams want to trade you a No. 5 starter who might help you get to the postseason,” said one scout who works for a contending club. Eight starters landed on the latest edition of the Top 25 Trade Candidates list from MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, though of that octet, only a few seem like they would be real difference-makers in a playoff series. Here’s more from around baseball as we wrap up the first half…
- In another tweet from Crasnick, he describes the chances of the Braves trading Julio Teheran as “not likely” unless Atlanta significantly lowers its asking price before the deadline. Given that the Braves reportedly want more for Teheran than they received from the D’Backs in the already-infamous Shelby Miller trade, it’s not hard to see why teams are balking at such a huge asking price. (And it’s also clear why Atlanta would demand so much for a controllable young arm with ace potential.)
- Clayton Kershaw will miss at least one start after the All-Star break as the Dodgers’ ace is still recovering from his back injury. L.A. manager Dave Roberts lined up his post-All-Star break rotation for reporters (including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick) and Kershaw wasn’t in the mix, as the star lefty just threw off a mound today for the first time since June 26. Early reports about his DL placement suggested Kershaw could miss up to a month, so while today’s news wasn’t necessarily a surprise, it’s possible he could return in the latter half of the 10-day road trip the Dodgers will face after the break.
- Speaking of NL West stars on the DL, Bruce Bochy provided some updates to the media (including Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News) about some notable Giants. Joe Panik is recovering well from concussion symptoms and could be back for the Giants’ series with the Red Sox that begins on July 19, while Hunter Pence could begin a minor league rehab assignment next week as he recovers from surgery to fix a torn hamstring. Matt Duffy’s strained Achilles tendon in his left foot is still causing him problems when he runs in a straight line, so his timeline is uncertain though Duffy can perform other baseball activities with no issues.
- Kenta Maeda exceeded the 100-inning plateau in his start today, thus unlocking another $250K bonus in his Dodgers contract (hat tip to ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla). Maeda is only guaranteed $3MM per season from 2016 through 2023, though he can collect significant bonuses based on innings pitched, starts and making the Opening Day roster. Thus far, Maeda has received an extra $1.65MM in bonuses this season. Even if he maxes out those bonuses over the eight years under contract, Maeda is already looking like a bargain for the Dodgers given how well he has pitched in his first MLB season.
- With today’s MLB Futures Game in mind, ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) details seven prospects from the game who could be trade chips at the deadline.
I hope Atlanta keeps the price high on Teheran. I think he is a good young arm that can build into a solid 2 or be one heck of an obvious overpay.
I don’t think he’ll ever be a true ace, but fringe 1-2 guy. More a 2 than a 1, he’s also cheap, so that’s all you could ask for.
You couldn’t get #4-5 pitchers in the market for his salary.
Fringe 1 is almost an Ace. 2 is almost an Ace.
Stupid Diamondbacks screwed up the pitching market, possibly for years, with the Shelby Miller overpay. Now every team is looking for Dansby Swansons in return for their mid-rotation pitchers.
Good thing Julio isn’t a mid-rotation pitcher! He’s already an above-average 2/low 1 who’s only 25 and could continue to blossom into a true ace!
The high price is completely understandable given age, performance, contract, and dearth of young, cost-controlled, great pitchers on the market.
Eh. Not so much. The price for starting pitching is inflating rapidly. Just look at what’s been going on in the free agent market recently.
I’ll go there. Kershaw got his 30m extension without FA being the exception, then the aces Scherzer and Price both got 30m AAV deals via FA.
Bar was set for extreme, front of the rotation starters by Kershaw in 2014 and Scherzer, Price followed. Don’t know exactly who will hit the 40m bar next, tho my guess is Boras has his eye on Fernandez.
I love when fans try to justify their team handing out a bad contract by saying another team”set the bar”
Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet. If him getting paid $30MM is why a team wants to pay another pitcher not nearly as good $30MM, that’s on them
Well it is essentially an auction. The team willing to pay the most generally gets the player. I’m not even looking so much at the price for elite starters. We should know that the relationship between their performance is pay is not going to be linear (IOW, they will fetch a premium). I look at the journeymen, who are much more numerous and who are routinely fetching over $10M a year now. They are creating the real benchmark.
I agree with stl_cards16. If Kershaw set the bar then those other pitchers would get less since they are not as good and should be under the bar
If you completely discount the concept of inflation and supply and demand.
They really did mess up the market , I rather have Hamels 100 times before Teheran, he was a proven ace before acquiring him , I still don’t buy Teheran being a low 1
Why tho
They didn’t screw the market up. The markets screwed up because everybody wants starting pitching and nobody is dealing true aces with very few 2/3 starters available. The free agent market isn’t any better so starting pitching is at a premium right now. The scouts are complaining because nobody is going to give up a legit pitcher for their crappy B-prospects.
The funny thing is I think a Swanson , Blair , Inciarte for Teheran would be fair but ever since that dumb trade went down the braves expect a kings ranson for Teheran who pitches in a not so hitters park, I truly hope no team falls for it, and you my friend keep Teheran as your teams ace which will need one once they start competing
Hopefully by the time the Braves are ready to compete they won’t need him because enough potential TOR arms from of a list of Allard, Fried, Soroka, Newcomb, Toussaint, Anderson, Wentz, etc will have developed by then.
You think trades happen in a vaccum or something? As though FO’s take a pitchers skill, equates it to a talent package and this is not to be exceeded. The Miller trade is only one part of why Atlanta is demanding so much for Teheran. It ALSO has to do with:
*The Braves needing to add ANOTHER player to the 40 man roster
*The condition of the rotation. They have a lot of pitching injuries and have already traded Bud Norris. If they trade Teheran they might have to turn to the major league market and trade for a pitcher so unless the return is exceptional, it would just be a dog chasing it’s tale.
*The market for good starting pitching is in huge demand.
*The Braves are happy to hold onto Teheran which means they are not a motivated seller. Situations like this are always tough sells.
*Teheran is a very good pitcher with an insanely team friendly contract with several more years of control.
I just gave you 5 more reasons to go with the Miller trade reason for Teheran’s exceptionally expensive price tag
YOU NAILED IT!!!!!
I am pretty sure you just contradicted yourself… That “premium” you talk about is driving the cost up. The fact that no one is willing to deal aces drives their cost up. It’s simple supply and demand. The supply is low and the demand is high making the price increase. It also does help that the Dbacks were out of their minds giving up that kind of price with this kind of return. I’m a Sox fan and I am very familiar with our system and I think our B- list should be enough to pry Teheran away. I’m sure if we packaged up Devers and Trey Ball something will get done. And for all y’all Sox fans, I’m not sold on Devers. I really like Shaw’s defense at 3B, and I’ve seen him make plays that Sandoval would not have been close that takes away extra bases in scoring situations. I don’t understand why teams do not value defense anymore. That has been the Rays value proposition for years (defense and pitching) and they have been relatively competitive despite that minuscule salary level.
On a completely different level from nowhere, I think the Marlins should sell now on Fernandez and I hope the Sox aren’t buying. He’s a ticking time bomb for a second TJ. Once you’ve had that first surgery, you are more likely than not going to face a second or other related arm injuries and in rare cases a third. His price is sky high and the Marlins should cash in while he’s healthy
What facts do you base this on? That’s malarkey. Get with the times, man. You’re not cool if you haven’t had a TJ. MIA has a better chance of resigning him than Fernandez goes down for a 2nd TJ. They should be trading him because of doubts of being able to lock him up…not because he’s had TJ.
Don’t feed the fear of TJ.
Markets don’t screw up, they are what they are. In a market the price for scare and in demand products goes up. On the other side of this equation, more and more teams are swimming in money now, so they have the revenue streams to get into and win these bidding wars — and not just for top talent. What’s the average MLB salary now, almost $5M? And that includes a lot of controlled players earning the MLB minimum or arbitrated salaries.
I agree
I think teams view that more as an outlier than anything precedent-setting. There just aren’t enough teams who that are reckless with their assets for this to be he new normal for pitching trades.
Don’t blame the DBacks for this mess. Teams are tossing out insane money for pitching and that’s where the majority of the inflation has come from. DBacks added to the mess but within the framework of the current model and even then, they managed to trade surplus while keeping their core together. That’s smart baseball. Overpay all the same but if Shelby is having a repeat year, no one is talking about it. You could equally point fingers at the Red Sox for the Price deal. He isn’t performing to that pay level so far! But to the RS, money is the surplus they’re willing to use currently.
You make a really good point. The DBacks rolled the dice and had Miller performed as he did in 2015, this trade wouldn’t be tapped as the root of all market evils. But since he has been bad, the blame is laid at the DBacks feet and nobody thinks of the Price deal which is also a disaster. Price could turn it around and make it reasonable? Sure he could. So could Miller.
On that note, I would think Miller has a better chance of turning it around before Price. Price is 30 and only MORE likely to decline, not less. Miller is only 25 and so age shouldn’t play a part in his decline for another 5 years or so. Also with Miller, he is so bad right now, you have to think there’s something going on under the hood that can be fixed.
Now that I have my brain around this, I think the Red Sox made the worse deal with Price.
Cue all the Braves fans wanting Moncada Benintendi and five other prospects for Teheran
One of moncada/Benni (top tier), one of devers/Espinoza (second tier), and two medium prospects like ockimey and chavis/raudes.
Bravos aren’t looking for B list guys here for Julio. It’s going to be an overpay if he’s moved at all. We all know that, so let’s cut the bull about his not being able to fetch that kind of return.
So let me gets this straight.. you want the Red Sox, who wouldn’t part with Blake Swihart (in the same tier as Devers/Espinoza) for Cole Hamels, to part with one of the top prospects in the game, another top 30 guy and 2 mid level prospects for Teheran?
Teheran CAN”T fetch that type of return. I think Devers, Swihart/Kopech and 1-2 B levels would get it done.
Moncada/Benintendi are going to be untouchable unless Sale/Fernandez/Cole are randomly available (which isn’t happening).
Perhaps you have reading comprehension issues. It’s been explicitly stated that the Braves are looking for a bigger haul than the Shelby Miller deal and aren’t interested in B-level prospects. You keep trying to propose what you think is fair. The Braves rightly don’t seem too interested in making a fair trade. It’s a sellers market and that market is barren. Moncada really should be the only untouchable prospect Boston has if they are that sensible. He’s on a level by himself. Benintendi really isn’t near him despite how much hype he is getting.
Teheran has more value than Hamels (contract + age + results). I’m not saying Boston should trade Moncana/Benintendi for him, but you saying they should do so for Hamels doesn’t make sense.
I just hope nobody falls for it and they keep their so called ace
Perhaps you have logic issues. Teheran isn’t worth Moncada straight up, let alone 3-4 other quality pieces.
Logic? The market dictates value and this market says a guy like Teheran is pretty darn valuable even if you don’t think so.
The price of quality starting pitching is steep in case you’ve been living under a rock for the past couple years. I mean you can keep proposing low ball trades that the Braves won’t accept if it makes you feel better. You’ve been doing it for the better part of a month despite the words of John Coppelella directly contradicting your proposals.
Once again the Braves aren’t looking for anything close to fair value. They have to be blown away or Teheran stays put. Which is what I would prefer anyways. Devers and Kopech would be a nice start with a couple more good pieces. Preferably a bat closer the bigs which is what the Braves want. Moncada is probably untouchable and I’m not as impressed with Benintendi as most.
I think we secretly agree, we just don’t know it.
You’re going off of what Coppy wants/says. I’m going off of whats reasonable. These things are not the same. No one is one-upping the Miller return for Julio Teheran.
Teheran isn’t a #1 pitcher, hes barely a #2. Devers and Kopech would be a nice start. Multiple of the Sox’s top 4 prospects wouldn’t be on the table for Teheran.
All that said, I’m incredibly interested in what doesn’t impress you about Benintendi….
OPS”ing .900 with speed, pop and quality plate discipline as a center fielder.. hard not to like that. Only reason he isn’t a CF longterm is because JBJ is already in Boston.
Gentlemen with some of the OTHER pieces available, Atlanta can go pound sand. DD did well in the Ziegler move and I’m sure he will find anouther short term SP.. Hill , etc that it won’t take the planet to procure. Don’t expect a Miller type fleecing to strike like lighting any time soon people!!!
I say we just stop and elect Moncada to the hall of fame before he everplays a game, didn’t know he is superman
Maybe we can put Teheran in there too while we’re at it.
I can’t say that I know what Cole Hamels would have taken but if the center piece was Swihart and none of your other top prospects… I can comfortably say you guys screwed up horrible. Not only does he fix your current issues but you’d still be loaded. Now, this is all hindsight but I’m sure it’s something DD is thinking about going forward (B/C I bet he makes that deal) and will make them going forward.
Didn’t we already do that? Along with Espinoza, Devera, and Benintendi.
Phillies were demanding Both Swihart and Mookie Betts for Cole Hamels. Phillies fans were saying all the same things as Braves fans now about Teheran.
“Your prospects aren’t that good, they are a risk, etc”
“Our guy is an elite cost controlled ace who definitely WONT regress in the AL”
They want to act like their guy is the best pitcher in the world and our prospects aren’t valuable, meanwhile they are all secretly hoping to trade as high as possible so they can have all our best prospects for their rebuild.
They think we’re dumb and desperate. And when Boston didn’t trade Mookie or Swihart to Phillies, Ruben Amaro says “Boston was right not to make that trade”
Benintendi is great prospect, but I’m not sure an advanced college hitter who is hitting .288 with mediocre power should be repeatedly lumped into the same category as Moncada. That’s all I’m saying.
Also, with Dave Dombrowski as the operator in Boston, there is no such thing as an “untradeable” prospect.
You know you make yourself look foolish by saying Devers and Espinoza are “2nd tier” prospects. You do realize that on the midseason rankings that just came out Espinoza is ranked #15 in all of baseball and Devers is ranked #41. That makes them both top tier prospects with Espinoza bordering on being elite. Kopech himself was ranked #93. What you are asking for (no way does the Braves FO expect anything close) is what a Sale return would bring. That is not just an overpay equal to Miller but that would be the all time biggest overpay. Teheran is a solid pitcher but to think he will bring a return like that shows how big of a homer you are. How about Swanson, Albies and Newcombe for Derek Norris? Norris has proven to be a stud catcher who is young and controllable. He is exactly the player the Braves need. Do you see how stupid some trades look? Norris is about a top flight catcher as Teheran is about a true #1 pitcher. Benintendi for Teheran straight up is a massive overpay and one I think both teams could live with.
BS and I might add BS
Let’s no pretend you’re being remotely serious about the Norris trade. Braves aren’t competing for anything this year, so we can wait to acquire a top C.
BOS is trying to win a championship this year; with their current staff, that simply isn’t happening. I’d be shocked if they made it out of the ALDS with their current staff much less all the way to a championship.
Julio will never ever get that type of return so stop talking all this bs
No chance that the Sox trade that for Teheran. A more realistic trade would be Swihart and Devers for Teheran and I think if that trade happens looking back the Braves will have gotten the better of that deal. I am pretty sure Teheran won’t be traded though because doubt they will find another gm like Stewart to make a dumb overpay trade.
That’s an atrocious return. A failed catcher who plays a poor LF without the bat to hit there and a struggling A-ball infielder.
Get real hahah that’s a terrible return for a young, cost-controlled true 2 starter who’s pitched like a damn near 1 this year.
I knew that would get your goat but I wouldn’t even do that trade for Teheran. Swihart would instantly be he Braves starter he is a catcher and will be in the future don’t know what you are talking about Devers is in high A as 19 year old and has an OPS over 1000 in the last month he will be in AA by the end of the season as a power hitting 19 year old. I wouldn’t make that trade but it’s probably a fair trade.
Not all Braves fans want to deal with Boston, quite a few have other teams in mind. Texas, Pittsburgh, Houston, even the Dodgers. Keep in mind we’re looking for a MLB ready bat and a couple of solid prospects to fill future holes. Don’t let the few zealots out there convince you that they speak for all of us fans.
I would like to have Meadows a lot more than Benintendi.
Let’s see, Atlanta fleeces the hell out of Arizona and somewhere in Braves land they are of the opinion they can do it again? Please go to some of the other clubs mentioned…I’m sure they are dieing to look like fools also… Just a zealot thought here
Blair. 7.99 era
Inciarte .225
Swanson MAY be great. Not much fleecing as of yet.
Teheran has a lot more to offer than Miller ever did, even if he hadn’t completely imploded this year. The market should dictate the price, and considering it’ll be difficult to replace Teheran anytime soon — I’m glad we’re not robbing Peter to pay Paul with any trade. The best trade for ATL could be no-trade.
Way to go not even mentioning Blair’s robust AAA numbers or Inciarte’s defensive work, which is currently on par with Jason Heyward.
OOOOOHHHH…. AAA counts now? I don’t care what kind of Def he plays, .225 stinks. GREAT rationalization though!
In terms of showing trade value and worth, it shows a lot more about a prospect than the first 50 MLB innings of a pitcher’s career, all mostly though spot starts where he can’t build on starts. Surprised you didn’t throw out his W-L record, but glad to see someone still values batting AVG.
What’s context anyway?
Teheran has a lot more to offer than Miller ever did? I beg to differ. Their career stats are almost identical. Teheran career ERA 3.36, Miller career ERA 3.64. Last year while they pitched in the same park all year, Teheran pitched to a 4.04 ERA and Miller pitched to a 3.02 ERA. They are both the same age, but Teheran debuted one season before. If not for this one year as an outlier for Miller I believe his career ERA would be below that of Teheran’s. Not to mention, Teheran is much more homer prone. So I ask you to reconsider your comment about Teheran offering a lot more than Miller ever did.
Oh yea….. You’re one of those “As long as he plays GOOD Defense, Stats don’t matter”. Just another way rationalize poor offensive performance. Inciarte would be a late inning defensive replacement at best. Failing at the ML level shows way more than dominating AAA. There are an Ocean full of guys that dominated AAA
I realize that it is totally on the other end of the spectrum but your remarks could be turned around with the exact opposite logic. An extreme type example close to Red Sox fans would be David Ortiz. Great hitter but very little defense for years.
The truth is teams need offense and defense. It works when both come from the same players but unfortunately it doesn’t always happen that way. The truth is that both offense and defense abilities give value.
Before anyone suggests it, I was NOT saying Ortiz and Inciarte were equal in value.
Teheran is on a ridiculously team friendly extension. Miller is going through costly arbitration.
Teheran will provide a vastly higher WAR/$ than Miller ever could simply based on contract.
Your comment shows your overall ignorance about those two players hahah
I just happen to believe the two teams could really fix some major holes on the other (talking multi players going both ways). But, honestly, this is nothing more than a game of chicken now and the RS can’t win. Reason being, you can’t bluff the guy holding all the cards and its damn well known all the cards are on the side of the Braves b/c they do not need to trade anyone. My opinion is the Sox get their starter(s) but from mixed trades around the league. I also am willing to bet they miss the playoffs and spend the off season crying about it. I equally predict the Braves fans spend the off season spending imaginary money that won’t get spent on FA’s and cry about what they didn’t get.
I seriously hope the Braves FO takes a pass on this years weak FA crop. Better to save the money and spend it on the 2018 FA class. But yeah get ready for all the nonsensical fan comments about how the Braves should sign Reddick or Cespedes.
You sound bitter. We love Teheran, and I have a man-crush on Benintendi/Moncada, but I won’t waste time fawning over deals that can’t be had. Rightly so, it looks like Dombrowski is fending off Wren’s advances of trading the farm and holding firm. Wish we had that same checks and balances when Wren was with ATL. I’m sure BOS won’t have a problem finding their pitching, as they have the prospects and cash to make it happen, which is why it’s so odd to see it being such a glaring need. We will spending the offseason crying, but it’ll be more about our record than a deal that was never done. And we’re used to deals not getting done, we had Barry Bonds (pre-roids) for a few hours (according to Schuerholz).
Not bitter at all. I sure didn’t mean to come off that way. I do think fanatics spend to much time crying about things they have no control over but its just how it goes really.
So go ahead and acquire one of the other quality staring pitchers who are available. I’m frankly not impressed with any Boston prospects outside of Moncada, and apparently Atlanta isn’t either.
Just curious, how else does Boston plan to acquire decent pitching? There’s not much available in FA this year.
Yes becuase you know more than all the analysists, scouts, GMs and writers out there that consistently rate the Red Sox as one of the best farms. And people wonder why everyone thinks braves fans are the dumbest fans out there.
Oh, don’t get your feelings hurt..your farm is the prettiest girl at the ball. Dombrowski has a full-time job keeping Wren from selling off the farm.
Kelsco must have blinders on cause I don’t know what he is looking at. Moncada gets alot of press due to his very large signing dollars. But Dubon, Travis, Bentidini, Esponoza, Devers, etc are all very good prospects and are having good to great years. Take a good look around and tell me there are an abundance of systems with a ton of talent in them? Not so good luck with that, but I hope Boston does go else where, gee they already have so far!
May be dumb but at least we were taught to take care of our things
I’m not even a Red Sox fan. I just hate idiots.
Of course they have a good farm. Any team that comes in last place that often, usually does.
My guess is wait about two weeks and you will have your answer, and Benetidini is no average prospect, tic tock. Gentlemen
Seriously if Boston put a stupid trade of Benintendi, Swihart and anyone else the Braves would ship Teheran so fast to Boston it would make your head spin that’s why Boston won’t make that trade. Let alone some of the stupid trade proposals of Benintendi, Moncada and Swihart trade proposals I’ve seen wow.
Good news to that front… You will have an amazing offense to carry your crap pitching.
Braves fan here. I realize that a lot of the proposals posted by fans may look ridiculous and give the impression that we’re overvaluing Teheran. But look at it from the Braves perspective. The pitching market is thin and the upcoming free agent market looks incredibly sparse. Teheran is signed to very team friendly deal, especially when you consider the contracts starters are signing for now. Trading Teheran only makes our rotation worse going into SunTrust. If another team wants him bad enough they’re going to have to overpay. If the Braves can’t get a top prospect for him then they really have no reason to trade. Ultimately I doubt he’s traded because of the asking price.
I think you lost most when you mentioned looking at it from another perspective. Most commenters only look from their own. Hate to sound like a d–k, but it is the truth.
Looks like I’m going to have to start pitching…. Maybe once I get a couple practice throws in iI’ll be worth Kershaw and Trout in a three team trade.
I understand there’s no way this would happen, but I just want throw something out there to see which team hates it the most.
Chapman for Benintendi
Can the Yankees stand gift the Red Sox a back of bullpen of Chapman and Kimbrel more than the Red Sox can hand the Yankees a young, middle of the order bat?
Won’t happen, for a multitude of obvious reasons, but I’m just curious to see which team would loath it more in this hypothetical.
In the hypothetical universe you describe, the potential years of Benintendi’s performance surrendered vs. the half season and *maybe* additional years of Chapman via an extension would probably make this one tougher for the Red Sox.
No, because Chapman is a rental for a few months, the dollar values aren’t even close for that trade. And Benintendi is already an MVP candidate according Red Sox fans.
Not a Red Sox fan but he does have all star potential. At his worst he’ll be a solid everyday player but his ceiling is a perennial all star who could win a couple of MVP’s. Comparing his trade value to chapman’s isn’t intelligent in any way.
I think we need to focus on the need… SP… Chapman very good piece thou but controllable years, big issue with this one
lol that’s funny I don’t think Benintendi is a future MVP but the years of control of a very solid outfielder who can hit and actually play center field is very valuable.
I am a Ranger fan and we need a SP as much as any team and there is no way that I would want them to include any of our top 3 guys mentioned Profar,Gallo are Brinson for Teheran. If they could work a deal around Luis Ortiz,Ryan Cordell,Travis Demeritte and a few more minor pieces I would be on board. I think Teheran is a good 3 marginal 2 but no way he is a 1. We have Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish both better than he is so he would slot in as a 3 for us right where he should be.
You act like you’d control both sides of the deal. It will not be working that way. I doubt the Rangers end up making a deal but expect it to be a combination of players you wouldn’t want to move.
Then seriously go after rich hill. He can be a MOR arm for y’all. He sounds like a better fit than Teheran.
I still believe the Yankees match up best with the Braves on a Teheran deal. Sanchez, Acevedo, Refsnyder & Dustin Fowler for Teheran.
Absolutely not. You’re saying 1 pitching prospect, a catcher and two infielders who ceiling is platoon player will get him? Braves would want Severino, Judge and Mateo.
Yuck — please stay away from NYY. Absolutely agree on Severino.
I am being a realistic Brave fan and stating what I believe would be a fair return. The 2nd best catching prospect in baseball with the best offensive potential for the position. A pitching prospect that hits triple digits. A MLB ready bat without a true position and a CF prospect that projects 20 HR potential. I would just assume keep Julio but I don’t see the match with the Red Sox and the Rangers seem to be reluctant to give up Brinson as a centerpiece. And the Cubs fans seem to be not very high on Teheran. At least not high enough to move Contreras as a centerpiece.
CHC would be higher on him if there was more of a need. They’ve gotten solid production out of 5 arms in their rotation. They can use their prospects on another need when that time comes.
My gosh people, a big reason the Braves asking price is so high is because they don’t even want to trade him regardless of his worth which s obviously up for debate. Teams need pitching and so if they Teheran then the Braves want what they want plain. And simple
It’s hilarious that they can say he’s not available endlessly, there’s still someone that will inquire and will not want to overpay for him. And then ATL is insane for valuing him so high. Hilarious.
Exactly, they are under no pressure to trade him, and to get him, it will have to be a massive overpay
I like the idea of getting some offensive prospects from Boston, but still like a reasonably priced #2 moving forward. If Teheran is traded, in two years Coppy will be shelling out a kings ransom to get a similar pitcher back.
That’s specifically why his price is so high. But, if things work out according to plan (and they rarely do), in 2 years we’ll know what we have in a few prospects that hopefully can either replace Teheran’s production or solidify around it. For ex: Folty and how in a few starts he’s put up ace-like numbers, including yesterday vs. CHW. He’s the only one that’s really put up TOR production that the front office is excited about what the rotation can look like in 2-3 years.
I think Wisler may be that guy already to take JTs spot in two years. He’d have a couple more wins with any kind of run support, not to mention some of the recent defensive miscues that have affected his ERA. He’s pretty much where JT was 2013/2014.
His ERA is 4.47, his fip is 4.42, and his xfip is 4.83. Defensive contributions seem to even out over the totality of his year to date
I really hope the irony of the Teheran trade value isn’t lost on anyone. Teheran was signed by a great extenstion by GM Frank Wren, who was fired, among other things, for devastating the Braves farm system, which new GM John Coppolella is trying to rebuild, and would help by trading away Teheran and his great extension to BOS (with Frank Wren as VP). If Dombrowski wants to blame anyone for how high Teheran is valued, he should thank is right-hand man.
Even if Teheran is nothing more than a #3 or #4 starter in Boston (saying that loosely for argument sake), That contract will make him the best 3/4 in the leauge b/c of the money RS will save over signing damn near anyone else. The real value comes in future dollars they can spend on anyone player they need (Bryce Harper maybe????)… That’s flexibility you can bank on.
Boston doesn’t need flexibility, we sell the most expensive beer and tickets. We can afford free Agency without trading our farm away.
I’m glad you get to pay so much for beer but every team desires flexibility. Don’t be daft.
Young cost controlled players is flexibility. We can afford Pablo sandoval doing nothing because we have Mookie, JBJ and Xander all on cheap deals. We are better off having cost controlled Beni and Moncada, who will be cheaper together than Teheran.
The argument of cost control doesn’t really work when you’re talking about 6 cheap years of multiple elite prospects. We’re better off in terms of flexibility if we keep our prospects.
Trading our future isn’t worth a little bit of financial flexibility.
And neither of those pitch. Way to solve problems you don’t have.
In terms of finances, sure. But having Moncada and Beni does nothing to help your glaring weakness in the rotation, unless you use that cost savings on a free agent pitcher – but that is a long-term solution and not this year.
It’s odd how some of these Braves fans continuously say how overhyped the “hall of fame” Sox farm is, yet they want half of these prospects in a deal for Teheran, and get salty when they’re told it’s not happening. Why get mad, they’re just prospects, right?
Pretty odd take. Strange shades you wear.
I hope the braves keep him. They’re going to stay bad for the foreseeable future, less competition.
That they are.
We aren’t “salty” as you put it. As a Braves fan I’ve watched Atlanta trade away talent and obtain a ton of prospects over the last year. I could care less if Atlanta gets any of Boston’s prospects, in fact I’d rather have Teheran. But if DD caves in and overpays for Teheran then so be it. It’s a win-win the way I see it.
Swihart, Owens and Shaw + one of Devers or Espinoza is a pretty big haul not sure if Braves would take it though, as Swihart and Owens values are both down, they are not failed prospects yet by any means though. I just wish I knew is Swihart done as a catcher or could he still develop his catching on the right team, was he moved due to lack of ability or team needs? Moncada is not happening I’ve already said financially why it would never work the Braves would have to send like 30 million dollars with Teheran, for Moncada. Benintendi is a nice piece to focus on, no reason the teams can not get together on a “overpay” even with out involving Moncada or Beni.
The Braves get 2 lottery tickets who may both need a change of scenery, a young cost controlled MLB player and a top 100 prospect, the Red Sox don’t give up either of their untouchable guys, and give up guys who do not look to have a long term future on the Red Sox to begin with. Seems like what both teams want.
The only thing is low minor prospects like Devers and Espinoza while they have very nice high side are further away than what Coppy has declared he had an interest in. As mentioned Swihart has given doubt about his long term viability as a catcher. Owens has not performed well in AAA and has struggled mightly finding the strikezone. Many consider Travis Shaw as Middlebrooks 2.0. Personally if I was the braves GM i’d say no quickly.
Lots of risk and question marks involved.
The bottom line is Boston has pieces available, I’m sure Atlanta is asking a huge price it will all boil down to if they can get creative and work something out that is acceptable to both teams. I personally think there is little chance of it happening.
I think the Risk balances out for both sides no one is sure Teheran can succeed in the AL East even to a #3 or 4 Standards.
The braves are bad, will be for a while, and have lots of holes. They’re exactly the type of team that should be willing to go for higher upside lower level prospects. That system lacks any real difference maker type of talent.
While the Braves are certainly bad this season, and they have lots of holes they are also already dealing with a lot of bad publicity right now in their market area. Not everyone is thrilled with the team leaving Atlanta for Cobb (although I admit that despite adding another 30 minutes or so to my already long drive, I absolutely despise where the current stadium is). Also many fans totally hate the braves record and the fact that they have dealt so many ‘recognizable named players’ away in the last year and a half. A lot of fans are even far less knowledgeable than the posters here. Personally I think the only way the Braves make a deal involving Teheran is if there is absolutely little doubt from the experts AND the public’s point of view that they win the trade.
As I’ve said many times, I just don’t see it happening even though the pieces are there.
The system lacks any difference maker type of talent? WTH? Is that why Keith Law rated it as the top farm system in baseball? Even above the precious Red Sox. Swanson and Albies aren’t potential difference makers? The Braves don’t have numerous arms with top of rotation stuff that will be difference makers? LOL. What in the world are you talking about? Not to mention guys farther out like Kevin Maitan and Derian Cruz. The system is absolutely loaded with difference makers. Good grief. Get a clue.
They also just had 6 guys named to Baseball America’s midseason top 100 list. It could easily have been higher.
They have lots of depth and prospects with high floors. System ranking =/= difference making talent.
They have what, 2 or 3 60fv prospects and none higher?
Swanson is an advanced college hitter who should stick at a premium position, high floor, not really a difference maker. Albies profiles as a good defensive player with no power, not a difference maker.
How many of those “potential torp arms” can throw enough strikes and actually command their pitches to any sort of degree that will allow them to be more than mid rotation starters? None?
Continue to overvalue your players though. I will enjoy watching that franchise be miserable for years and laughing at all of the braves posters from this site.
Wow. So now Albies isn’t a difference maker because he has no power? LOL. Yeah, he’s only a 19 year old hitting .397 at AA. who plays excellent defense and has great speed. No difference maker there. I could go deeper, but it’s obvious you don’t know what you’re talking about, as usual. The Braves have a ton of pitchers with TOR stuff. Touki is coming around. Allard has looked great. Fried is rounding back into pre-TJ form. Soroka just made the BA top 100 one year removed from the draft. Stay ignorant. It’s comedy gold.
Aren’t you a Cubs fans? That’s priceless. Talk about misery. LOL. Maybe your terrible laughingstock franchise will win a WS this century.
I have to wonder what you consider to be difference makers? Maybe they are only players that wear cubs jerseys? If so they haven’t made much of a difference, at least not since 1945…
As for the Braves farm system, the consensus has them in the top 5 in all of baseball, I don’t think I’ve seen it lower than that.
2 or 3 60s? No try 5 at 60 and 1 at 65, and that’s last February. 34 surplus WAR according to Fangraphs, 5th in baseball. But who needs facts right? The made up stuff supports your argument so much better.
On the Braves Swihart is most certainly a catcher he would arrive and be there catcher for the next 6 years until they could not afford him. The Sox still look at him as a catcher but thought they had an elite defender and with there offense were willing to sacrifice offense for elite defense. Now Vasquez is back in the minors because he can’t hit a lick and sure Boston still looks at Swihart as there future catcher hell he was a good enough athlete to pick up left field on the fly and play it well that doesn’t sound like a diminished asset to me.
Arizona had a catching prospect named Peter O’Brien, a top hitting prospect. His team has now deemed him an OF. Would you say that O’Brien has more value, equal value, or less value now that he’s an OF? Atlanta had a young catcher named Gattis. Does he have more value as an OF, at 1B, or at C (where he is not good enough to play every day)? Atlanta gave up Gattis because they wanted someone behind the plate that was better defensively. Now ask yourself why Swihart would still be an A level prospect, and why Atlanta would be interested in him.
Good points but totally different situations. The Red Sox believed that they had an elite defensive catcher in the Vein of Molina on there hands and decided that they can go with lower offensive production at catcher because they have one of the very best offenses in the game. Swihart will be a catcher his defense according to Fangraphs last year as a catcher was above average. He is a very good athlete so DD decided let’s try him in the outfield because Sox had a huge bust in left field with Rusney Castillo and felt that he would help them right away. They have since sent Vasquez down because he can’t hit and when Swihart comes off the DL my guess is he will be catching again. So let’s see if I’m right but I am quite sure he would be Atlanta’s catcher right away if traded. Just my opinion we will see.
Also just a quick check of defensive metrics on both of O’brien and Gattis and not even close to Swihart’s defensive abilities according to advanced defensive metrics O’brien and Gattis were negative WAR defenders every year while Swihart was positive. Apples and Oranges defensively.
I 100 percent agree on what you said. Teheran is realistically a 2 on a very good salary. Even as a 3 it would be a good salary. The Braves should be in no rush to move him. Keep the price high. If he doesn’t get the value front office wants, so be it. They still have Teheran.
I am a bit stunned about how much heat and hot takes fly around the comments sections on this site when it comes to Teheran. It’s like this guy is the second coming of Christy Mathewson or something. (And yes, I know a Braves fan has actually compared Teheran to Mathewson). So objectively:
1) Teheran is a good, not great, pitcher. He has outperformed his peripherals by quite a bit; regression is due, like it always is. This doesn’t mean he is a bad pitcher; just not an “ace.” Which is no insult; there are only 10 or 12 aces in all of baseball.
2) The Shelby Miller trade can’t be used as a comparison for anything. The D-Backs have a dreadful front office. They didn’t even know, when they signed Yoan Lopez, that they were going to be barred from the full bonus pools for J2 signings for two years after. Let that sink in; this is a major league front office that didn’t understand the rules about international signings as recently as two years ago. And they continue to claim Lopez is a “top 3” prospect in any organization, when no scout even sees him as a major leaguer.
3) Okay, back to that Miller trade. A terrible front office, after already selling off one of its best prospects earlier that year (Toussaint) then traded three very good players for a mediocre pitcher who was screaming “regression” and has been absolutely awful this season. Arizona doesn’t know what it’s doing and is very stubborn about it. That trade shouldn’t be any indicator of what Atlanta could get for Teheran. You can’t take the lowest common denominator and assume that’s what every trade should be.
4) Boston isn’t trading Moncada or Benintendi. What they are doing, especially Moncada, is special, and the Red Sox have had pretty good luck with prospects over the last several years.
5) Atlanta doesn’t really need to trade Teheran. He’s young and cheap.
Well as a Christy Mathewson collector I can tell you he’s no Mathewson! That said, he’s an amazingly valuable piece to nearly any team (exception may be the Cubs but possibly Pirates and Indians). No team deserves him via trade that won’t part with an overpay b/c that’s the market value.
The Braves should be asking a lot for Teheran he is young, cheap and under years of control. The teams looking at him are looking at him for the long term and also bc this years free agent market for pitching is terrible. The Braves don’t need to move him but if some one offers you enough to trade him then do it!
People need to recognize that the Red Sox have a deeper farm system than some other teams. The fact that the Braves are not accepting “B-Level prospects” makes total sense. But people are asking one of Moncada/Benintendi, who are highly touted prospects, along with one of Espinoza and Devers, and are associating Espinoza and Devers as second tier prospects. Espinoza is listed as the #15 prospect in the game and Devers at #41. I’m not one of those guys who thinks “THE RED SOX FARM SYSTEM CONTAINS 10 HOFers and 25 all stars, but the fact that people think Teheran is fetching 2 top 50 prospects, at least 1 top 100 prospect, and more, is utterly insane.
Sure but the Braves are in the drivers seat not Boston. Last year the jays were asking about one of the Indians young studs the Indians wanted Stroman Norris Hoffman etc the Braves don’t need to move Teheran and neither did the Indians it’s pay more then market value or no deal
I agree. For a package like Mon/Benni/Dev, I would expect someone like Chris Sale to be on the other end. Im a big Teheran and Braves fan but I’m under no delusion that Teheran should get a Chris Sale type package.
Chris Sale would require much more. For Teheran, its market value. Enjoy overpaying to get Rich Hill back. I’m sure his arm will handle the additional innings of being a starter this year with no difficulties.
Yeah I understand that the Braves don’t need to trade him, but even a package that doesn’t include Moncada or Benintendi could still be a good deal for the Braves, as it could have 2 top 100 prospects in it and more.
Tehran becomes extremely more valuable in the offseason. The thin market this winter will create some interesting trades. The braves really have no need to trade Tehran right now unless someone makes it painful not too. There will always be a team who wants to win the offseason in look for a quick fix. The Miller trade didn’t ruin the market. It’s quite clear that age and contract status made Tehran quite more valuable to the braves than Miller. The Miller trade wasn’t insane because of the prospects. It was insane because it was Miller. Tehran is a different guy. Whether he’s 1-2 or even 3, disagreements on that don’t matter. So when the braves want a kings ransom for Tehran yeah I can’t disagree with that. The Braves in Tehran and the Rays are in the proverbial cat bird seat with potential assets.
You can probably add the A’s to that but who knows..
I agree with this thin starting market statement. It’s amazing to me that Teheran is the most valuable starter available. Yes he is a nice pitcher on a very friendly contract but to be as valuable in the returns that Atlanta seems to want wow. If I was Chicago I would throw Sale out there if Teheran is this valuable my god how valuable is Sale?
I think it’s just Atlanta’s way of saying Teheran isn’t available, at least for prospects. Coppollela said he wants a major league proven bat in return of “comparable age and contract”, which is a trade that just won’t happen at the deadline.
Now in the offseason it’s more likely that they can find a trade partner that will give them what they want. But I see it more like they trade Teheran even up for a major league proven bat instead of another teams top prospects. It’ll probably still be an overpay in the minds of most, but probably not to the extent that Atlanta has supposedly asked Boston for.
I do agree with you that Atlanta doesn’t really want to trade Teheran which is why if here there is a deal reached with someone I would cringe at what it will cost.
Idk about that there seems to be different motivations for the Braves. They still have to open a stadium.
Or how valuable is Quintana he is on a very team friendly contract and a better pitcher then Teheran.
Or how about Quintana if Teheran is that valuable how valuable is Quintana? What’s Sox should get a ton of return for him.
But that’s the thing are any of those guys actually available.
You’d have to assume that Quintana, Tehran, Archer to be in demand. The question then becomes the motivation for teams to move them.
They seem to be as available as Teheran. Anybody is available for the right price. I’m just saying I don’t think Teheran is actually available unless there is a gross overpay to the point that every sports publication in America crucify’ the trade the way that Arizona got crucified in the analysis and most GM’s don’t want to be mentioned with Stewart.
I really think the sox should sell pitching, but they wont. They could be worth a ton to that team, and they aren’t real competitors, but their front office seems to think they are. By unloading the talent they have, they could probably jump start a pretty quick rebuild, but I don’t see them doing that. They will continue to be a pretty bad team and waste the cheap and best years of those two pitchers careers.
I completely agree with you I don’t think they are good enough to make the playoffs and too many good young teams to pass to get there. It’s tough for an orginization to admit that though.
Its always hard for a team to trade that once in a lifetime player. For the Whitesox, its Sale, for the Angels, Trout, for the Tigers, its Miggy. It should take a lot to trade them. They are the players that helped sell the season Tickets and got/will get them their TV deal. Those are things that never seem to be taken into account in any of these trade proposals.
I do agree with that well said.
That’s a difficult situation to be in. There are some pieces to work with but a ton of needs. The farm probably won’t provide much relief. There’s an obvious need in two of positions, c, sp, and relief. To be honest they probably have to take on money to fill some of their needs and turn to the offseason. Quintana is hard to trade because how many holes can be conceivably fill without hurting an already top heavy rotation. Trading Quintana might represent maybe having to blow it all up. You have to respect Sale and potentially give him a chance to win. I don’t think they can win this season. They can depending on the moves made in the offseason but if you get in the playoffs with Sale and Quintana you never know.