Three Needs: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are up next in MLBTR’s Three Needs series, and while isolating three individual needs for a team with the worst record in Major League Baseball is a tall order, here are three aspects that the organization needs to shore up in order to facilitate a return to relevance in the AL Central…
1. Improve the player development process. There’s been plenty written about the Twins’ lack of embracing analytics, and while hiring a president of baseball operations that will embrace data and statistical analysis more than the preceding regime is indeed important, owner Jim Pohlad and president Dave St. Peter should also be looking to bring in an executive with a strong background in player development. The Twins have long had one of the game’s top-rated farm systems, yet time and time again the fruits of their vaunted minor league ranks struggle tremendously upon reaching the Major Leagues. Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton were rushed, thereby explaining some of their struggles. Buxton is finally showing some promise, but Hicks has already been traded and has yet to develop into a regular player.
No one would make the case that Jose Berrios was rushed, but has been shelled in virtually every start he has made in the Majors this season. The list of Twins prospects that ranked comfortably within the top 100 from outlets such as Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus but failed to deliver on that hype at the big league level is long. Kyle Gibson has shown little consistency in the Majors, Oswaldo Arcia has been designated for assignment by three organizations this year and Eddie Rosario hasn’t given any indication that his OBP is ever going to top .300. Alex Meyer has only made four big league starts — three of which have come with the Angels (though shoulder injuries have played a large role in his lack of contribution). Organizational top prospects like Danny Santana, Trevor May and Kennys Vargas have shown glimpses of usefulness but to this point have lacked consistency (Santana, in particular, seems to be at a crossroads).
The best pitcher the Twins have drafted in the past 15 years was Matt Garza, who was traded before ever pitching a full season in Minnesota. Following that, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Gibson are the only starters drafted and developed by the Twins in that stretch that have made any real degree of impact at the MLB level. The Twins took Kohl Stewart with the fourth overall pick in 2013, but his raw stuff has yet to generate strikeouts and his stock has already dipped to the point where he’s fallen off of most prospect lists. For an organization that can rarely spend at high levels on the open market, the complete dearth of homegrown pitching talent is glaring — and it’s probably the chief reason that the Twins have been in the division cellar in five of the past six seasons.
That ties in nicely with the next need on this list…
Jacob deGrom To Undergo Elbow Surgery
TODAY: deGrom’s procedure was completed successfully today, the Mets announced. His ulnar nerve was “reposition[ed]” during the surgery, and the expectation remains that he’ll be ready to go next spring.
YESTERDAY: Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom will undergo surgery on the ulnar nerve issue in his right elbow later this week, reports ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin. The operation, which will move the nerve to alleviate the discomfort deGrom has been feeling, comes with a three-month recovery, Rubin adds.
Obviously, the operation will bring deGrom’s season to a close and rule him out of the Mets’ postseason rotation picture (if New York is able to hang onto the Wild Card spot it currently holds). The 28-year-old former NL Rookie of the Year (2014) was able to start just 24 games for the Mets in 2016 but was quite productive when on the mound even in spite of the nerve issue in his arm. DeGrom totaled 148 innings of 3.03 ERA ball this season, averaging 8.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 to go along with a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. He entered the season with one year, 139 days of Major League service time, making him a very likely Super Two candidate following the season.
DeGrom becomes the latest Mets starter to go down with an arm injury in what has been a difficult year for New York’s vaunted young rotation. Zack Wheeler was never able to make it back to a big league mound as he recovered from 2015 Tommy John surgery but incurred numerous setbacks along the way. Matt Harvey, meanwhile, underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome after struggling through the first half of the regular season. Both Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard are pitching through bone spurs in their throwing elbows as well, though Syndergaard’s is considered much more minor in nature. And if the bone spur wasn’t enough, Matz has also been battling tightness in his left shoulder, which has sidelined him for the past month, though he’s nearing a return from the disabled list.
Padres Designate Patrick Kivlehan, Nick Noonan
The Padres have designated outfielder Patrick Kivlehan and infielder Nick Noonan for assignment, the team announced. Their 40-man roster spots were needed for the team’s wave of prospect call-ups, which were also made official.
Though he earned his first MLB promotion, hitting well in just five games of action, Kivlehan will presumably find his way to another club after a year of constant change. (San Diego was his third team in 2016.) Kivlehan spent most of the season at the highest level of the minors, posting a .254/.302/.416 slash with a dozen homers in 397 trips to the dish.
Noonan, 27, received only brief major league time this season — his first as a member of an organization other than the division-rival Giants. Over 374 plate appearances at Triple-A, Noonan has posted a .301/.338/.427 batting line.
Nationals To Sign Cuban Outfielder Yadiel Hernandez
The Nationals have agreed to a deal with Cuban outfielder Yadiel Hernandez, as Jorge Ebro of el Nuevo Herald reports. He’ll receive a $200K bonus, with Ben Badler of Baseball America adding that it comes on a minor league deal.
Hernandez, 29, has been free to sign since April, but failed to hook on with an organization until the minor league season already ended. As a result, he’ll have to wait for his first chance at competitive, regular season action until next year, though presumably he’ll be able to participate in various fall and winter activities and leagues. Hernandez last played in a full-fledged game early last year.
It’s a bit surprising that Hernandez had to wait so long and was only able to secure such a meager bonus, but perhaps his showcases haven’t been convincing. Hernandez’s age is obviously a limiting factor on his value, but teams have promised tens of millions of dollars to even older players out of Cuba. But Badler suggests that he is good enough to warrant placement at Triple-A or even to battle for a major league roster spot out of camp.
Indeed, the numbers in Cuba have shown plenty of promise. In his last Serie Nacional campaign, Hernandez put up a robust .369/.509/.535 batting line with 7 home runs over 369 trips to the plate. There obviously isn’t much power in his game — he has never hit more than ten in a single season — but he also managed 77 walks against just 47 strikeouts in that span, which seemingly suggests that he will bring an advanced approach with him to D.C.
Hernandez is viewed as being capable of playing an average right or left field, but it doesn’t seem as if there’s much hope of him lining up in center — which is where the Nats could most benefit from a left-handed bat in 2017. Still, he’ll add to the organization’s depth options next season and beyond, and the meager bonus makes this an extremely low-risk signing.
Coppolella On Swanson, Free Agency, Manager
Braves GM John Coppolella was a guest on Buster Olney’s podcast at ESPN.com today (audio link) and discussed a number of topics, including the timing of Dansby Swanson‘s promotion, his expectations for free agency, what to expect from SunTrust Park, the health of prospect Ozzie Albies and the team’s managerial vacancy heading into the offseason. The entire interview is about 12 minutes in length and is well worth a listen in its entirety, but a couple of highlights from the interview stand out.
Asked about the unorthodox timing of Swanson’s promotion to the Majors, Coppolella plainly stated that service time doesn’t factor into the team’s decision-making that often. (Notably, he pointed to the decision to have Jason Heyward on his Opening Day roster back in 2010 rather than keep him in the minors for three weeks to delay his free agency, and he pointed to Atlanta winning the Wild Card by a lone game that season as a beneficial outcome.) The Braves were in negotiations with the Tigers on August’s Erick Aybar trade, and when discussing the possibility of trading another player who was performing well at the time (Aybar hit .313/.361/.424 in the month preceding the trade), it was team president John Hart who made the suggestion to call up Swanson in his place. While Coppolella originally felt the move might be premature, vice chairman John Schuerholz quickly agreed, and as the trio talked it over, an agreement was reached to promote Swanson. The results, of course, have been excellent, as Swanson is hitting .313/.364/.424 through his first 110 big league plate appearances (a bizarrely similar line to the one Aybar produced between the All-Star break and the trade to Detroit).
Swanson joins a growing core of position players that have helped the Braves move from the worst-hitting team in baseball in the first half to one of the best in the second half (by measure of wRC+), as Coppolella pointed out (with a tip of the cap to Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan). Swanson, Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp and Adonis Garcia have all performed quite well in the season’s second half, leading Coppolella to once again state that his focus figures to be on pitching this winter.
“We have more money now than we’ve had in any of the 10 years that I’ve been a part of the Braves,” said Coppolella. “Our biggest needs are going to be starting pitchers. We have a lot of good young starters, guys with great arms, guys that we still really like. They have been somewhat force-fed into opportunities because of guys getting hurt and/or traded. So part of what we want to do is get guys that are more stable — not that we’re going to write off any of our young arms, we still like all them very much — but if we could add two veteran starting pitchers, that would really help our team.”
Another focal point for the Braves early in the offseason will be determining who will manage the team on a full-time basis in 2017 and beyond. Coppolella was quick to heap praise onto interim skipper Brian Snitker for the job that he’s done since Fredi Gonzalez’s firing, explaining that all he’s done is improve his own chances at shedding the interim label. However, the Braves will still conduct a search to determine the best candidate.
“Brian couldn’t have done any better,” Coppolella tells Olney. “…It’d be easy for this team, knowing that they’re not going to the playoffs, to just kind of go through the motions. That has not happened. These guys are playing hard every night. They’re doing great things every night, and that’s a big tribute to Brian as well as to this whole staff. … We’ll end up seeing which way it turns out. If he ends up being the guy — we aren’t set that he wont be, we aren’t set that he won’t be — we just feel that we owe it to our players, to our organization to at the very least talk to a few people without the Braves to see what they have to offer.”
Again, Braves fans will want to check out the entire segment, as Coppolella offers insights into the decision-processes, preliminary testing that has been done on wind patterns in an effort to gauge how SunTrust Park will play, and the strides that have been taken by Freeman in all facets of his game this season.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Benintendi, Pomeranz, Beckham
The only locks for the Yankees‘ 2017 rotation right now are Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that GM Brian Cashman won’t take a reactionary approach to plugging holes in his rotation. As Sherman points out, though, the quartet of Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa and Bryan Mitchell has yet to prove that there’s a definitive starter among them, and any could end up in the ‘pen. The Yankees will add at least one arm this winter, he continues, though given the paucity of quality starters on the free agent market, a trade from the team’s suddenly top-ranked farm system might be the most rational expectation. Sherman lists speculative candidates ranging from Ervin Santana to Chris Sale, though the top-tier names like Sale are included more as a means of demonstrating the depth of New York’s farm than as a genuine indication of likelihood. Sherman rightly points out that with free agency looking so sparse, the asking prices in trades will be staggering — especially for the likes of Sale, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer and other top-tier arms.
More from the division…
- The injury from which Andrew Benintendi recently returned was a bit more significant than originally reported, according to Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald, who reports that in addition to a sprain in his left knee, Benintendi also suffered an avulsion fracture just below the knee. The Red Sox have fitted Benintendi with a custom brace that he’ll wear on his left leg for the remainder of the season, but the 22-year-old tells Drellich that he’s already accustomed to the brace and no longer notices that he’s wearing it.
- Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz could be feeling the effects of a career-high workload of innings, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Manager John Farrell explained to MacPherson that while Pomeranz’s velocity remains strong, his pitch-to-pitch command hasn’t been present of late, which has cost him. Pomeranz, acquired in exchange for top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza in July, has lasted a combined 5 2/3 innings across his past two starts. He’s currently slated to make his next start (Friday against the Rays), but MacPherson notes that his fading results could land him in the bullpen once the postseason rolls around. Pomeranz is up to 164 1/3 innings this season, and his previous career-high (147 1/3 innings) came all the way back in 2013.
- MLB.com’s Bill Chastain writes in his latest Rays Inbox column that he wouldn’t be surprised if Tim Beckham‘s time with the Rays organization is coming to a close. Adding Matt Duffy to play shortstop and moving Brad Miller to first base to pair with Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe at third and second has solidified the starting infield mix. And, he notes, the heightened play of Nick Franklin in 2016 gives him a leg up on the utility job. The Rays demoted Beckham on Aug. 31 right before rosters expanded due to some perceived carelessness on the basepaths, and they doubled down on that harsh message by electing not to bring him back up later in September. The former No. 1 overall pick, set to turn 27 in January, hit .247/.300/.434 with five homers in 215 PAs for the Rays this season.
Padres Promote Margot, Renfroe, Hedges, Asuaje
With the Triple-A postseason now complete, the Padres announced late Tuesday night that they have promoted top outfield prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot as well as catcher Austin Hedges, second baseman Carlos Asuaje and lefties Buddy Baumann and Jose Torres in a final wave of September call-ups. Of the bunch, Renfroe and Margot rank firmly within the game’s top 100 prospects, while Asuaje ranks as one of the Padres’ best prospects after coming to San Diego alongside Margot in the Craig Kimbrel blockbuster. Hedges, meanwhile, is a former top 100 prospect in his own right that saw his rookie status expire while struggling in the Majors last season but enjoyed a monstrous season in Triple-A this year.
Starting with Margot, the 21-year-old center fielder currently ranks 16th, 20th, 27th and 39th on the respective midseason top prospect lists compiled by Baseball Prospectus, ESPN’s Keith Law, MLB.com and Baseball America. Margot was one of the headliners of the Padres’ return for Kimbrel and demonstrated many of the reasons that he’s so well-regarded with a strong 2016 season in which he batted .304/.351/.426 with six homers, 21 doubles, 12 triples and 30 stolen bases in 566 plate appearances at the Triple-A level despite being more than five years younger than the league’s average age.
Scouting reports peg Margot as a plus defensive center fielder due to his above-average speed and strong reads, and it should be mentioned that he racked up 18 outfield assists in Triple-A this year. His hit tool draws strong reviews as well, with the only real questions regarding his skill set centering around his power (or potential lack thereof). Even if he’s not a big threat in terms of clearing the fences, though, Margot profiles as a regular that works the count, hits for average, gets on base, steals bases and plays quality defense.
Renfroe, meanwhile, ranked 41st on MLB.com’s list, 43rd on BP’s and 66th on BA’s. The 24-year-old was the No. 13 overall pick back in 2013, and while his arrival to the Majors took longer than some might’ve anticipated, he’s hit quite well in parts of two seasons with Triple-A, slashing a combined .310/.339/.568 with 36 homers in 154 games. Those numbers, of course, are aided somewhat by the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and it’d be encouraging to see Renfroe walk in more than four percent of his Triple-A plate appearances. But, his 20.5 percent strikeout rate isn’t through the roof, and the reports on him laud his raw power and bat speed as well as his arm strength in right field (where he fell just shy of Margot with 17 outfield assists this season). Even if his discipline never improves, Renfroe could be an power-oriented regular with an OBP in the low .300s and solid defense in right field.
Turning to Asuaje, MLB.com rates him 20th among San Diego farmhands and praises his contact skills, hand-eye coordination and gap power/line-drive stroke. Asuaje is listed at 5’9″ and 160 pounds, so the odds of him ever hitting for much power, especially playing his home games at Petco Park, are fairly long. though MLB.com’s report on him does mention his “surprising” pop and give him a chance to crack double digits in homers. The 24-year-old Asuaje was brilliant with El Paso this season, hitting .321/.378/.473 with nine homers, 32 doubles and 11 triples. He’ll be in the mix for the second base job in 2017, and even if he loses out to breakout slugger Ryan Schimpf or a returning Cory Spangenberg, Asuaje could crack the roster as a utility player. He’s appeared at third base, left field and (briefly) shortstop throughout his minor league tenure and could help the Friars at a number of positions.
Hedges didn’t receive the call-up that many (myself included) were anticipating earlier this season due largely to the fact that Derek Norris played himself out of a potential trade by hitting just .183/.253/.320. With Norris and the out-of-options Christian Bethancourt serving as manager Andy Green’s primary receivers in the bigs, the Padres left Hedges at El Paso to continue to hone his offensive skills, and he delivered in a big way, hitting .326/.353/.597 with 21 homers. That’s a critical development for a player who has long been touted for standout defense but had previously struggled to hit. Hedges batted a woeful .168/.215/.248 in 152 MLB PAs last season, and the .225/.272/.314 slash he compiled in 133 career games at the Double-A level was concerning as well. Now, with such an impressive 2016 season in his back pocket, it’s easy to envision the Padres finding a way to clear a roster spot for him in 2017.
Neither Baumann nor Torres ranks among San Diego’s top minor leaguers, but both had strong minor league seasons. Baumann posted a 3.14 ERA with a 31-to-12 K/BB ratio in 28 2/3 innings, and the 28-year-old will return to the Padres for a third stint this year. Torres, just 22, split the 2016 campaign across three minor league levels after beginning in Class-A Advanced and compiled a 2.24 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 64 1/3 innings of relief.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Henderson Alvarez Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
SEPT. 20: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Alvarez had a biceps tenodesis procedure and an excision of a boney exostosis performed on his right shoulder today by Dr. James Andrews.
SEPT. 15: Athletics righty Henderson Alvarez will undergo arthroscopic shoulder surgery, MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports (Twitter links). It’s not yet clear what kind of time he’ll require to recover, as that will be dependent in part upon what needs to be fixed during the procedure.
It was clear already that Alvarez wouldn’t throw in 2016, but the news nevertheless represents another rough blow. The 26-year-old never quite made it onto the hill for the A’s this year despite coming tantalizingly close during his rehab work.
Alvarez did log 33 frames in the minors during his DL stint, which is more than he managed in 2015 for the Marlins. The shoulder surgery that ended his season then also led to a non-tender from Miami, with the A’s scooping Alvarez up for $4.25MM over the winter.
Unfortunately for both player and team, the bounceback effort fell short. While the results of the surgery will obviously play a significant role in determining Alvarez’s future, it already seems fair to expect that Oakland will not tender him a contract entering his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Teams will surely still show interest in taking a shot at a recovery from Alvarez, though perhaps they won’t be willing to stake quite as much guaranteed money. He’s obviously still quite young, and was posted a 187-inning, 2.65 ERA campaign in 2014 before the troubles began.
NL East Notes: Morris, Reed, Phillies, Swanson
The Marlins made the somewhat surprising decision to designate right-hander Bryan Morris for assignment earlier today, three months after the previously reliable bullpen arm underwent back surgery. As Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes, the Fish simply felt they needed Morris’ roster spot (presumably meaning this winter, as he was on the 60-day DL but activated in order to be designated). However, Morris’ agent, Jim Kuzmich, tells Jackson that president of baseball ops Michael Hill told him to “keep [the Marlins] in mind” if Morris goes unclaimed and hits free agency this winter. That would indicate that the Marlins are open to bringing Morris back into the fold on a minor league contract, though based on his history, many teams would figure to show interest in Morris as a free agent. While he’s not a big-time strikeout arm, the 29-year-old Morris pitched to a 2.30 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in parts of three seasons with Miami. And, on top of that, he has a hefty 58.6 percent ground-ball rate in 215 career innings between the Pirates and Marlins.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- The exploits of Mets reliever Addison Reed are increasingly notable, as James Wagner of the New York Times and August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs each explore. He has changed his mechanics and approach since coming over to New York last August, and the results have been spectacular. Wagner looks into a seeming oddity: Reed has thrived despite — if not because — he puts the ball over the middle of the plate more than other pitchers. Fagerstrom breaks down the mechanical changes in detail and points out that no pitcher in baseball has fired more first-pitch strikes than Reed while also illustrating the difference in the location of Reed’s slider since his transformation.
- Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com looks back at the Phillies‘ 2016 season and highlights some positive takeaways, focusing on improvements from Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. Lawrence also writes that A.J. Ellis has been such a positive influence in terms of not only his receiving but his skills as a teacher/mentor for the youthful roster that the Phils could have interest in re-signing him. As a follow-up, he wonders if the Phillies might, then, be willing to trade from their catching depth — the team has Cameron Rupp starting with Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp on the way — to acquire help for another area on the roster. Lawrence briefly speculates on the possibility of re-signing Ellis then dealing Rupp this offseason.
- While the Braves won’t formally say that Dansby Swanson is here to stay in the Majors, the praise that GM John Coppolella and interim manager Brian Snitker offered for Swanson when talking to MLB.com’s Danny Knobler certainly implies that there’s a belief that Swanson is done with the minor leagues for good. “This is a winning player, a special player,” said Coppolella of the 2015 No. 1 overall pick. Snitker explained that Swanson was promoted this season to prepare him for the 2017 campaign. “That’s the whole idea of why we wanted him here,” said Snitker, who also likened Swanson’s demeanor to that of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine early in their careers. “Now, going to Spring Training, he’s not going to be in awe of anything. He’s getting a jump-start on guys he’ll face next year.”
Ian Kinsler Diagnosed With Concussion
Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler has been diagnosed with a concussion and will have to clear concussion protocols before he is cleared to return to the playing field, head athletic trainer Kevin Rand told reporters, including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (links to Twitter). Kinsler suffered the concussion over the weekend when he was hit in the head by a Trevor Bauer fastball (via MLB.com’s Jason Beck).
[Related: Detroit Tigers Depth Chart]
While the injury could certainly prove to be short-term in nature — Kinsler will be tested daily — history has shown that even mild concussions can linger for lengthy periods of time. With the Tigers currently two and a half games out of a Wild Card spot as 13 games remain in the season, though, Kinsler’s absence will be a notable detriment to the team’s postseason hopes. Detroit does have the luxury of lining up against baseball’s two worst teams — the Twins and Braves — for six of those 13 remaining games, but swapping out Kinsler for Andrew Romine weakens the team’s day-to-day chances of narrowing the gap that separates them from the Orioles. Trade acquisition Erick Aybar also represents an option for manager Brad Ausmus while Kinsler is sidelined.
Kinsler is in the midst of his best offensive season since 2011, as he’s hitting .277/.335/.469 with 26 homers, 26 doubles and four triples to go along with 14 steals. He’s also playing his typical brand of elite defense at second base, as Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at +12 runs while Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at 10 runs above average. Kinsler, 34, has one year remaining on his five-year, $85MM deal and is slated to earn $11MM next season. Detroit also holds a $10MM option on him for the 2018 campaign.