As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017. The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official. The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.
If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies. A full post on Abreu can be found here.
Angels (5)
- Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
- Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
- Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
- Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
- Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM
Astros (7)
- Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
- Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
- Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
- Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
- Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
- George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
- Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM
Athletics (5)
- Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
- Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
- Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
- Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
- Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM
Blue Jays (4)
- Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
- Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
- Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
- Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM
Braves (7)
- Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
- Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
- Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
- Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
- Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K
Brewers (4)
- Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
- Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
- Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
- Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM
Cardinals (5)
- Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
- Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
- Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
- Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
- Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM
Cubs (4)
- Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
- Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
- Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
- Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM
Diamondbacks (6)
- Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
- Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
- Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
- Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
- Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
- Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM
Dodgers (7)
- Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
- Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
- Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
- Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
- Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
- Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
- Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM
Giants (6)
- Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
- Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
- George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
- Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
- Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
- Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K
Indians (8)
- Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
- Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
- Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
- Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
- Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
- Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
- Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM
Mariners (9)
- Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
- Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
- Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
- Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
- Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
- Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
- Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
- James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
- Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K
Marlins (6)
- David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
- Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
- A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
- Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
- Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
- Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM
Mets (10)
- Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
- Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
- Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
- Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
- Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
- Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
- Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
- Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
- Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM
Nationals (5)
- Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
- Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
- Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
- Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
- Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM
Orioles (9)
- Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
- Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
- Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
- Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
- Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
- Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
- T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
- Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
- Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM
Padres (6)
- Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
- Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
- Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
- Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
- Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
- Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM
Phillies (3)
- Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
- Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
- Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM
Pirates (7)
- Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
- Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
- Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
- Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
- Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
- Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
- Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM
Rangers (7)
- Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
- Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
- Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
- A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
- Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
- Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM
Rays (9)
- Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
- Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
- Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
- Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
- Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
- Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
- Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
- Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM
Red Sox (10)
- Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
- Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
- Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
- Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
- Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
- Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
- Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
- Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
- Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM
Reds (4)
- Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
- Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
- Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
- Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM
Rockies (5)
- Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
- Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
- Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
- Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
- Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM
Royals (3)
- Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
- Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
- Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM
Tigers (6)
- Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
- Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
- Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
- Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
- Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
- Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM
Twins (5)
- Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
- Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
- Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
- Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
- Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM
White Sox (9)
- Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
- Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
- Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
- Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
- Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
- Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
- Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K
Yankees (7)
- Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
- Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
- Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
- Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
- Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
- Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM
Bookmarked for future reference. Thanks!
There is no way the Yankees commit to about $11MM combined in arbitration for Eovaldi who will miss the entire 2017 season and Ackley who is injured more often than not and who the Yankees have many internal options to replace on the roster at virtually no cost. Look for both to be non-tendered.
Many, many of these are non-tender candidates
Evan Gattis (HOU) has a Club Option for 2017
It will be very interesting to see if Arrieta receives a long-term deal with the Cubs. If Theo is as smart as everyone thinks he is, he should trade him. Wait, what?! Yes! Arrieta took a step back this year, which was to be expected, but other teams have been hitting him. At times, hitting him quite well. So before you either A) sign him to a terrible and expensive long term deal that watches him age and become ineffective while getting paid tons or B) lose him in free agency for no compensation… Trade the guy and get a haul. Some one would trade their farm for Arrieta. The Cubs have great pitching and could remain dominate without him.
I agree with you about trading him, but the Cubs pitchers that had great years a few of them pitched way above there heads and won’t even be close to those numbers again! Trade Jake and get a top prospect back!
I think the cubs only think about trading him if they win the world series – if they fall short they have to keep him for a run next year. If they do win it I can see them trading him – will need that money saved to start extending their youth and will need young pitching to step in when lackey, hammel and arrieta are gone in 2018. I can see them trading him for big pitching prospect or a few decent ones and an established closer ( assuming they let chapman walk ). Maybe even use Jake as a component to get Sale?
I’m not sure the money saved from Jake’s arbitration will be a big issue for the cubs going regarding extensions. They have a new tv deal coming up.
Also, why would the white sox trade sale just to get a package that includes 1 year of a starter? Makes little sense for them to add a player like arrietta if they are trading sale.
No chance that arrieta would be a part of a sale trade. I don’t think they would match up for an arm as valuable as sale
Better to keep him, make another run in 2017, and go from there
This guy knows what he’s talking about
Arrieta is a ace. First in batting average against , 5th in wins , 11 in whip , 13th era in all MLB. Threw a no hitter as well. 16 mill for next year? That’s a steal. Who replaces him in rotation ? Lackey last year next year and hammel as well. So 2018 will be Lester Hendricks and ? ? ? . He has lost his 30-35 mil a year dream but if we can afford paying Edwin jackson to not play for us his $$ contract isn’t a issue.
Huge bump for Britton. What would his number be going into 2018 if he has a remotely similar season in 2017?
Thanks, I removed Gattis given that club option.
I also adjusted Arenado, Addison Reed, Britton, and Familia. Matt had given me some small changes for those four due to the Kimbrel Rule, and I forgot that until now. More on that here:
mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-breakdown-c…
Fairly certain Marcus Stroman isn’t eligible until 2017?
He should be eligible as a Super Two player.
Seems like the projections see a big jump for first-time eligible position players compared to even a few years ago. Six guys ahead of Donaldson’s first arbitration number?
It’s not apples to apples unless you’re referring to JD’s projected first arb award rather than what he actually got after losing.
Actually, I was an idiot and included guys who have 3+ years of service this year, but were Super-2 last year and are going through arb for the second time.
That leaves just Myers and Ozuna ahead of Donaldson’s first-year salary.
As I understand it though, the projection system is built to get to what a player is likely to get, not what they (or their team) might file for. So, once I’ve gotten it down to those two actual apples in the barrel, it’s an even comparison to Donaldson’s number.
Donaldson was also a Super Two though, so not quite apples to apples. More like apples and pearapples. Ozuna (3.124) and Myers (3.104) had 3/4 of a season more than Donaldson did (2.158)
Thole and Loup will get non-tendered. I thought Barney was a FA so him being arb eligible is great news. I would have sworn Sanchez was arb eligible, especially since he only has about 75 less days of service time than Stroman.
Well after I backed out of this article I saw the super 2 cutoff article which answers why Sanchez isn’t arb eligible. Lol
Is there an analysis that looks at how accurate your projections have been over the past 5 years?
I’m pretty sure Jarred Cosart qualifies as a Super Two. Can someone please confirm or debunk this for me?
If he spent less than 105 days on the MLB roster this year he doesn’t. If he did he’ll be arbitration eligible. If I counted correctly he spent 84 days in the minors, so he won’t be a super 2.
tim –
Miguel Gonzalez of Chi- White Sox was due to make $4.5 last year
seems like – $6.0 to $6.5 might be more appropriate ?
Gonzalez did well for the White Sox this season and i hope he gets resigned; as for Avi, I question if he is worth the 3 million. He was too inconsistent this past season.
Exactly why Rick tried to move avi multiple times this year
Any way you could include how big of an increase in payroll these arbitration estimates represent for each team?
For example:
Tigers (6)
Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM; 2016 – $900k
Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM; 2016 – $2.1MM
Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM; 2016 – $1.525MM
Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM; 2016 – $522.5K
Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K; 2016 – $510K
Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM; 2016 – $536.5K
Total Raises – $5.906MM
I was thinking the same thing. Good work!
I think the Blue Jays and the Cards could pull off a blockbuster that could help both teams and see them against each other in next years fall classic.
Sanchez for carpenter and a decent prospect?
Don’t think the Jays would think of moving Sanchez. He is their ace for the next 5 years. Unless they don’t resign Edwin or Joey bats and get grossly overpayed like Reyes and another MLB position player starter
Cubs are going to choke hard tonight!
Revere and Espinosa may be gone
I believe Mike Zunino is eligible and not listed.
Question. Taking knowledge regarding MLS calculation from CBA into account, I came to the conclusion that Josh Collmenter’s MLS for 2017 Opening day is 5.142. His 2016 Opening day MLS was 5.000. He accrued 126 days of service from April 3rd to August 7th with Arizona. He accrued 16 days of service from September 16th to October 2nd with Atlanta. That makes it 142 days of service. He was on Active list most of season and spent time on DL as well as rehab assignment. I also didn’t count the days when he was FA and was on Triple-A with Cubs. Is there something that I am missing or is 5.142 correct? Please let me know. Thanks.
I don’t know, it’s not what we had but our number could be wrong, too. It doesn’t really matter in this case b/c he’s 5+ regardless. In theory it could make a difference if he doesn’t spend all of next year on a MLB roster, but if that’s the case, it also doesn’t matter — he’ll be cut loose anyway.
Okay, Thanks. How does MLS work for players whose team went on international opener in the middle of spring training? For example, if MLB teams went to Australia to play international opener on March 20th, do they only accrue one MLS day for that game and then start accruing MLS again when they play mlb opener on North American soil?
Honestly I forget how that was accounted for.
The ambiguity of trans-hemispherical collectively bargained human resource policies are my favorite part of baseball!
Can’t see a spot for Amarista. Will look at Asujse for middle infield/ utility spot. Non tender for sure
1
Funny to see that Addison reed may get more than Harper lol. Strong union
Tyson Ross is projected to earn more than Bryce Harper? Surely that can’t be right.
That’s how the arb system works. Ross is projected to repeat his 2016 salary, because pay cuts are basically non-existent. Harper is projected to get a raise from his prior salary, which was negotiated in a two-year deal, which tamped down his earnings this year after his MVP 2015. He’s not projected to get a tremendous raise b/c he didn’t repeat the ’15 output. Of course, the algorithm is based on statistical inputs, and no doubt Boras will argue for and try to seek more. Those negotiations will be interesting.
Something is terribly wrong with these calculations if Addison Reed is projected to receive the largest raise for a reliever in the history of arbitration.
Matt always writes a series of articles discussing notable or interesting cases, sometimes tackling cases where the model creates surprising results. I’d guess you’ll read more about it then.
The problem is when you have a result this blatantly incorrect, it calls into question the entire methodology.
It’s not an interesting case, it’s a model that includes irrelevant stats which, in turn, creates outliers like this.
Hey, I just read on Mariners.com that Nori Aoki is arbitration eligible…? Does he need to be added to this list or is Greg Johns wrong with his calculations of service time?
Baseball reference also says he’s arbitration eligible…
Bryce Harper is going to be the most interesting arbitration case this winter.
why was jake arrieta not a super 2 player and mike minor was?