It’s always interesting to see who is tabbed as the game’s next great prospect. Some make it, others don’t, but the number one prospect tag remains a nice prize for a pre-MLB player. There’s no clear candidate for that lofty position heading into the 2017 season, so it’s particularly interesting to see where the MLBTR readership sees things heading.
Prospect eligibility is an essentially arbitrary matter, but we’ll draw the line at 100 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched. That takes players like Trea Turner, Andrew Benintendi, Julio Urias, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Orlando Arcia, Joey Gallo, Jose Berrios, and David Dahl out of consideration for our purposes. Many or all of them have largely earned MLB spots for 2017 regardless.
As a guide in putting together a list of candidates, I’ve drawn from the most recent rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. There’s a range of opinion, and they also haven’t been updated to reflect late-season observations.
It may be a shade premature to assess the top prospect, so you can consider this something of a predictive undertaking — which is what prospects are all about anyway. Here are the candidates for the poll:
- Yoan Moncada, INF, Red Sox — Moncada has all the tools, and had a highly impressive year in the minors in 2016. He draws walks, but also has plenty of swing and miss — which was on display in his brief MLB cameo (12 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances).
- J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies — A premium defender at shortstop and reputedly polished hitter, Crawford holds out the promise of being an everyday mainstay in Philly even though he doesn’t figure to post massive home run or stolen base tallies. Crawford still needs to master Triple-A and is coming off of a minor knee surgery.
- Lucas Giolito, SP, Nationals — There have been some ups and downs for the big righty, who struggled rather notably in 21 1/3 major league frames last year. But he’s just 22, turned in 115 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA pitching with 9.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in the minors last year, and has the kind of arsenal that leaves prospect hounds tabbing him for a limitless ceiling.
- Brendan Rodgers, SS, Rockies — The least-experienced players in this stratosphere, Rodgers showed immense potential at the Class A level last year in his first full season of pro ball. The 20-year-old slashed .281/.342/.480 with 19 home runs over 491 plate appearances.
- Alex Reyes, SP, Cardinals — Reyes didn’t produce great results at Triple-A last year, continuing to mix high strikeout rates with high walk rates, but exploded in 46 MLB frames. He continued to show questionable command, but racked up 52 strikeouts and allowed just eight earned runs on 33 hits.
- Tyler Glasnow, SP, Pirates — Another power starter whose command is the major question, Glasnow was unhittable in the upper minors (69 knocks in 116 2/3 innings). He showed both the good and the bad in 23 1/3 big league innings, with 11 earned runs crossing and a 24:13 K/BB ratio.
- Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates — The 21-year-old stalled out a bit at the highest level of the minors after dominating at Double-A, but delivered 48 extra-base hits over 352 plate appearances on the year. Just 21 years old, Meadows could soon push the Bucs to make some difficult decisions in their outfield.
- Amed Rosario, SS, Mets — Rosario reached Double-A in the middle of 2016 at just 20 years of age, and delivered a .341/.392/.481 slash over 237 plate appearances — though his .433 BABIP indicated both hard contact and some good fortune. Like Crawford, he probably won’t ever wow with counting stats, but projects as a strong defender at a premium position who can provide useful offensive production when he reaches the majors.
- Victor Robles, OF, Nationals — Just 19, Robles is considered a true five-tool prospect with the makeup to match. He has shot up prospect charts while climbing the system, though a hand injury slowed him and he cooled off at the High-A level. While his upside is tremendous, Robles still has yet to grow into his power potential and has yet to face polished pitching in the upper minors.
- Other — There are a host of others who could conceivably enter the discussion. Brewers outfielder Lewis Brinson has a monster ceiling, Braves infielder Ozzie Albies could provide immense all-around value, and Padres righty Anderson Espinoza has shown huge gifts for his age — just to name a few.
Weigh in here: who’s the single best prospect in the game as 2017 beckons? (Link for app users; responses are randomized.)
No Mateo?
He didn’t really elevate his stock last year. Don’t think he’s a real candidate for top overall prospect at this point.
He struggled this year. Besides, he’s only their 4th best prospect now.
Mateo is further away, granted. man.. Watched some his Sally league games (Milb tv) and that guy looked outstanding. Hopefully it keeps up. Yes.. His game is built entirely around speed and mostly slap/line drive hitting, but seems to have more than billy Hamilton there.
Think Espinoza is further away than 2017. Kid was only 18 last year and his 1st year in the US really, not to mention 1st full year of A Ball. I watched 2 games of his in person at Ft Myers while there in 2015. The guy has lightning in his arm, has focus on the mound, was pacing the dugout between innings. Raring to get back out there when his team was at bat. A fierce competitor.
Think he’s going to be a good one for the padres, just take some more time
De Leon ??
After you remove the players that were mentioned, DeLeon is probably closer to a top 20 prospect. As far as Dodger prospects go it’s not out of the question for Bellinger to be above DeLeon.
Both Belinger and DeLeon will be members of the Brewers once they’re traded.
I’d say giolito slightly edges out glasnow and moncoda. Reyes is up there too but I’d rank him fourth out of that group
If we are going by production here, why is Reyes not #1…he is 22 and just finished almost 50 innings with a mid 1 era…that was MLB level, so why is he not 1. I mean they always say they go by potential well Reyes potential is pretty dang good
because 50 innings is a tiny sample?
More then 0 innings like anyone else basically on the list.. And he was already a top prospect before he got called up.
In those innings he continued to show the same problems that resulted in him being a top prospect and not the top prospect before the season. Number of innings isn’t how prospects are judged.
I can’t wait to see what Reyes does in a year in the Bigs. His stuff is really nasty, and he gets K’s. My only concern is command, but that’ll come with time
I am a Pirate fan, and while I love the potential of Glasgow and Meadows, the former’s continued command problems and the latter’s continued injury problems (both Hamstrings and now an oblique) has my expectations tempered.
I’d go with Giolito or Reyes if I had to choose.
I understand these prospects have pretty much always had high praise, but would Tyler O’Neill be considered in this realm given his past two minor league seasons?
It would be a pretty big jump for O’Neill to go from AA to the bigs next year. Even if he has a great ST they might want to see him have some success in AAA before they call him up. I would love to see him make the team out of ST but it is a long shot. It will be interesting to see what happens with him. He seems to be really breaking out.
Yeah I would also like to see him be the starting right fielder but he will start out in AAA, don’t want another Romero, even tho he wasn’t as hyped.
Yeah, he definitely needs to hit AAA first, but to be a top prospect heading into next year or just in the honorable mentions for breaking the roster in 2017 is something to be considered, in my opinion. Even as a biased Mariner fan, I look around the rest of the Minor League farm and 100% believe he is in the top tier.
Will be interesting to see how he does on Saturday in the AFL All Star Game. Going to have to set the DVR for that one. College FB and the granddaughter playing basketball make for a busy weekend. The game is on MLB Network at 5 our time. I wish we could see more AFL games maybe someday they will show them instead of that idiot mad dog. I can’t believe that show is still on he is so annoying.
When they alternate the same 3 movies everyday during the season is what makes me mad instead of having more games on.
Count down to the first “All Red Sox prospects are overrated” comment in 3, 2,…
All red sox prospects are overrated
Hunter Renfroe should be discussed. That guy might be the next Stanton.
Came here to say that. 30HR ROY next year, hard to not have him at least on the ballot. And his arm in the OF might be more entertaining than his home runs.
He can hit all the homers he wants, he’s not beating out Swanson for ROY.
It’s important to remember Renfroe’s age, too. He’ll by 25 by the start of next season.
To put that into perspective, by the time they were 25, Giancarlo Stanton already had led the league in slugging twice and was a two-time All-Star. Mike Trout had led the league in WAR in five consecutive seasons. Machado and Harper were both three-time All-Stars, the former a two-time Gold Glover and the latter a unanimous MVP.
So I’d say it’s a massive injustice to compare him to Stanton or anyone of that caliber. Maybe in a few years if he pans out, but right now, I’m not calling him the next Giancarlo Stanton until he plays more than 11 games in the big leagues.
I think Rosario is Top 10 this year, Top 5 midseason and could be Top 3 entering next year. Here’s to hoping he’s another Lindor!
I know Moncada is the easy choice, but something in my mind keeps telling me over the long term Albies ends up still being the more productive player. I’d think if he just had more size and power experts would love him more. So far everything else has looked to be outstanding.
I think Swanson will have the best career of the three.
Swanson very well could, but was thinking about for the purposes of this poll. For the record I thought it was odd that MLBTR would go for an option other than the major league rules for Rookie of the Year eligibility. But then again that is their prerogative since it is their website.
The 100 instead of 130 AB cutoff was certainly strange – Jeff, care to explain?
Swanson belongs on this list. He had 129 ABs and is a shoo-in for NL ROY 2017.
Same with Benintendi and Bregman? Not sure if they exceeded the number of at bats
Benintendi is eligible, but Bregman is no longer rookie eligible.
Strange? It’s all completely arbitrary. Not sure where 130 really comes from, but we don’t use ABs here anyway.
Honestly, I don’t really think it’s worth considering Swanson as a prospect at this point. He’s the starting SS, period. And that’s certainly not a slight to him at all.
They exceeded my made up number, which I did choose in part to eliminate guys like Benintendi and Swanson for this poll b/c they have already done enough to be clear MLB players next year. Good for them, great young players.
Thanks for the better explanation Jeff. I just felt it was odd (as in different from what is normal or expected.) but I understand your reasoning behind it better now. As I said above it is MLBTR’s website so your prerogative how you decide anyway (and I’m fine with it).
Alex Reyes is more of a shoo-in for NL ROY 2017 than Dansby Swanson, and he isn’t really a shoo-in, further negating your point that he is a shoo-in for NL ROY 2017, and showing the nobody is a shoo-in to shoo-in anything. Bloody wanker
I think a lot of prospects would be more loved if you could just add this or that to their game…
Shohei Otani would be #1 were he signed to a MLB team.
I don’t think he’s the best prospect, but Devers (Redsox 3B) is generally considered a top 15 prospect (Klaw even has him top 5) probably deserves some reconginzition if you are including Albies
I didn’t include Albies in the poll, just mentioned that there are other guys, including him, who could conceivably warrant consideration. Devers is in that group, too, sure.
Guiltily for me.
Guiltily I think I’d go with Giolito.
1- Moncada
2- Reyes
3-Giolito
4-Robles
5-Rodgers
Well, at least in my oponion…
Small typo; Moncada has all the tools, and had a highly impressive year in the minors in 2017.
Supposed to be 2016*
Indeed. Weird typo, ha. Fixed.
Forward thinking analysis as always here.
I think Dansby Swanson is a great choice for 1st or close 2nd. He is a 5 tool player and plays above average in every aspect of the game. He ran around the bases in 15 seconds! And he has 25 homerun power, easily! Plus defender, and excellent batter! Face of the Suntrust Braves!
As I noted elsewhere here, I wouldn’t argue with calling him #1 if he was eligible within my arbitrary constraints. But I don’t really think of him as a prospect in the purest sense at this point.
“25 homerun power, easily”?
How exactly do you get that?
MLB.com and Baseball America both graded him at 45 Power (slightly below average). BA said he has “enough power to project 10-15 home runs per year in the big leagues”. He’s hit 10 home runs in 127 professional games, and he hit just 3 in the MLB last season (translates to 13 per 650 PA).
Swanson does everything very good, but not anything great. His makeup and performance make him a very low risk prospect, but these lists are more about projection. If they weren’t, then we wouldn’t see teenagers in Class-A ball or recent draft picks that have yet to play a game on them.
If you asked me who was the safest bet to be a future All-Star on the list, I’d say Swanson. But if you asked me who’s the most likely to be a future MVP or Cy Young, there are quite a few who I think are more likely than Swanson given their tools – Reyes, Giolito, Moncada, Robles, Rodgers, Brinson, etc.
Dansby Swanson is easily a top 5 prospect, in my opinion. But he just doesn’t have the upside to be called a number one overall prospect for me. I don’t see him being a perennial Gold Glove candidate, but he’s still going to be a very good defender. I don’t see him constantly threatening for batting titles, but he’ll still probably be a good bet to hit .300 annually. I don’t see him running wild on opposing pitchers, but I see him easily reaching double digits every year.
There are several prospects that I think (and most scouts think) have a higher upside than Swanson. Swanson’s ceiling is that of an All-star, one of the better middle infielders in baseball. His game reminds me of Brandon Crawford with a better average and a little more speed, but not quite the glove. Moncada, on the other hand, has a ceiling of a .320+ hitter with 25+ home runs, 40+ SB, solid defense, and positional versatility if he puts it all together. However, Swanson’s floor – an above-average starting shortstop – is probably the highest among any prospect. That combination will land him in the top five, but I don’t think it’s enough to make him number one..
My prediction for Baseball America’s top five:
1. Yoan Moncada
2. Alex Reyes
3. Andrew Benintendi
4. Dansby Swanson
5. Lucas Giolito
.
Hard to really argue with your list or your reasoning. I think you are pretty accurate on your analysis of Swanson too. Lots of things really really good, but none absolutely outstanding.
Also, Ozzie Albies could very well be one of the greatest 2nd Basemans of all time. He’s an amazing defense, deadly runner, and otherworldly hitter. I think he has 20 homerun power, 40 steals, all with a .300 average. Easy choice for Gold glove in the future. It will interesting to see which Brave pans out better. Both can become HOFs. Looking a lot like Glavine and Smoltz coming through the system.
Let’s calm down there buddy. I think we’ll all be happy if Albies hits around 10 homers a year
Yeah, I seriously doubt Ozzie Albies ever hits 20 dingers in a year, although I don’t think that 10 homers would be out of the question once he fully matures as a major league hitter. While it is certainly expected that Albies has the ability to EVENTUALLY become 40 steal .300 average hitter and possible gold glover, he is far from that now. I’d most definitely hold off the HoF expectations too since the guy is only 19 years old. I do envision him as someone who has a great chance to be an all-star before age 24, but whether he even makes that goal remains to be seen.
I know TINSTAAPP, but like how is the answer NOT Lucas Giolito?