The month of January isn’t always a big month for free agent signings, but it can be at times. In 2016, in particular, a wide variety of high-profile free agents had yet to sign when the calendar flipped. As things stand entering 2017, players like Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Jason Hammel, Matt Wieters, Michael Saunders, Mike Napoli, Greg Holland, Travis Wood, and Neftali Feliz all remain available despite entering the winter listed among the top 25 players on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top 50 free agents. Other unsigned players include Brandon Moss, Luis Valbuena, Nick Hundley, Chase Utley, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, Kurt Suzuki, and Colby Rasmus, along with a variety of relievers (e.g., Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Fernando Salas, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Drew Storen).
To see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last six offseasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains at least some drama, but the 2015-16 open-market period still seems like an outlier (which likely occurred due to the sheer volume of high-end talent that was available).
- 2016: There was a lot of meat left on the free-agent bone this time last year. Plenty of money ended up changing hands over the month of January, with Chris Davis landing seven years and $161MM from the Orioles while Justin Upton got six years and $132.75MM plus an opt-out from the Tigers. Big, multi-year deals were also awarded to Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM over five years with opt-out), Yoenis Cespedes ($75MM over three years with opt-out), Alex Gordon ($72MM over four years), and Ian Kennedy ($70MM over five years). Less significant, but still-substantial guarantees were struck by Denard Span ($31MM), Gerardo Parra ($27.5MM), Howie Kendrick ($20MM), Antonio Bastardo ($12MM), and Doug Fister ($7MM).
- 2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
- 2014: This was the other recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
- 2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
- 2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
- 2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero‘s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.
An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Davis, Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Chen, Kennedy, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Span, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Wieters and Holland.
The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Ian Desmond, Kendrick, Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. Trumbo and Bautista are the only two remaining QO decliners on this year’s market, but it’s not hard to see how the draft compensation may continue to impact their markets.
This time around, negotiations over the new CBA may well have played a role in the timing at the top of the market. That likely slowed things down for Edwin Encarnacion, who is now one of several notable, veteran bats who have signed — helping to explain why so many lumbering sluggers still remain available. With three top-end closers and a variety of other relievers also chasing big money this winter, it’s perhaps not surprising to see a fair bit of bullpen help still floating around, too.
This post is adapted and updated from a post by Charlie Wilmoth that was originally published on January 2, 2016.
When a home run leader like Trumbo is left as a free agent in January, that just tells me that analytics is alive and well. What was progressive ten year ago is now a mainstream way of analyzing value.
I think Trumbo’s issue is his price compared to similar players.
Trumbo (30 yrs old) wants $75 million over 4 years, and you forfeit a pick.
Chris Carter (30 yrs old) can probably be had for about than 1/2 of that (4/38 estimated), and he hit 41 HR’s….and had a similar slash line. (no pick)
Todd Frazier (30 yrs old) hit 40 HR’s and is a much better defensive player, Strikes out less, and is on the trade block, with an Arb salary that will probably be in the $10 mil/1 yr range. (no pick)
Napoli is similar to Carter with fewer HR’s………(no pick)
Moss is also similar with fewer HR’s than Napoli (but 150 fewer AB’s), but can play the OF……..again…….looking at $10 mil/yr……..not 4/75 (no pick)
I think if Trumbo would accept 4/60-65….(and he should)……he’d be signed by Baltimore already. They’ve “pulled their offer”, but they said that last winter with Davis, only to sign him anyway. The question is…………”Is Trumbo TWICE as good as those other players???
Agreed with a lot of what you wrote, but there’s no way Carter gets that contract. I doubt he even gets a multi-year deal. The Brewers couldn’t find a taker when he was projected to make $8-9MM on a one-year deal. He’ll sign for 1/5 or maybe 2/10, but he can be had at a much smaller fraction of Trumbo’s asking price than half.
What’s stopped the Rockies from snatching Carter at that price, and freeing Desmond so they can make another move for a starting pitcher? Trumbo also only really makes sense back in Baltimore or Colorado.
Carter reminds me of Chris Davis when he was with the Rangers. It’s funny how there is such a fine line between getting a “low dollar” contract versus a “break the bank contract”. Davis is clearly a better player than Carter, not even a question about that. But Chris Davis performance 2 years ago is not much different than Carters from last year. One player will be rich, the other player’s great grandkids will be rich.
Well, they’ll all end up as rich millionaires anyway. It’s all perspective.
Sorry guys……I wasn’t clear about Carter. I should have referenced it as a AAV instead of a 4 year term. I was merely trying to identify that……IF Carter signed for 4 years, that it would be for about 1/2 of what Trumbo wants per year. My bad.
I agree that he won’t get a 4/38 deal……….I was just using that for comparison.
Carter will be arbitration available next season too, so I’d guess he is signed to a one year deal since it would essentially come with a team option for next season anyway. I’d imagine he and his agent are hoping to get that last arbitration year guaranteed(and not at full price I bet) but I personally don’t see it happening. And in this market, especially after Encarnacion only got three years and almost settled for two, I see no chance of him obtaining a four year contract. I wouldn’t mind Carter and Moss on the Rangers though(worked out for the Vikings).
SKOL!!!!!
Now is when teams have to be very cautious. This list is full of albatrosses and declining players. Hell, last year only two of the 11 (cespedes and Kennedy) provided enough value for the money they got. And even then, Kennedy will likely break down and have his contract look awful by the end of it. Everyone else was mediocre or below average or way overpaid like upton and Davis
Chris Carter was actually one of the best “Value Buys” last winter at $2.5 mil/1 yr……
He’ll be seeking somewhere around $8-10 million/yr, and the Rockies should be all over this guy instead of Trumbo………they have enough OF’s already, and Carter might hit 50 playing 1/2 his games at Coors!
If the Rockies signed Carter, they’d have like 5 starting outfielders (assuming Desmond moves to the outfield)
Signing Carter would in my mind have to trigger a deal for a starting pitcher. Wanting to get something done and getting it done are two different things of course….but the Rockies could theoretically add Desmond, Chris Carter, Greg Holland and trade for a starter in the Quintana/Chris Archer mold. I dont like that money locked up on Trumbo. Its time to make a move to bolster the starting staff. In many ways I like Sergio Ramos a bit more for the Rockies pen than Holland. His velocity off the bat is solid. I just can’t believe it’s their intention to punt the #11 pick and only add Desmond.
Meant Romo…brain slip
Dahl for Sonny Gray
Ronnsnow–that’s intriguing. I do like Sonny Gray for the Rockies. Couple eggs crack and both sides get what they need. A’s have a righty reliever you think they’d package?
I suppose the A’s could package Axford in the deal with Sonny Gray.
Carter was good value at $2.5 million, but he was only a 1 WAR player. Push that salary to $8-$10 million and he’s fairly fungible.
Guys like Carter are frustrating to watch bat. For all the homers…there are so many times they’ll leave runners in scoring position when simple contact would have scored a run. Sure wish it’d be possible to cut 10 homers off for a 30 point uptick in obp
Totally agree. When I was reading the list of past FA signings I was struck with how many of the players I wouldn’t want on my team going into next year. The past signings are littered with albatross contracts, underperforming players, or injuries. Sure there are a few great players on the list (Beltre as one example). However those are the exception rather than the norm. Free agency tends to get a ton of positive applause from the fans when their team signs a ‘big name’. But 2-3 years later those same fans are often clamoring for those players to be traded. Free agency almost seems the worst way to go these days. There always seems to be a sucker of a team willing to drop big bucks for a players who are past their prime.
IMO Saunders and pagan would be great fits in Baltimore. Saunders can dh against rhp because of his poor defensive metrics. He could probably be had for about 2/20. Pagan would be a great fit in right field to supply some much needed obp to our power heavy lineup. He can probably be signed for a minimal amount like 1/7 or 2/12. Both can hit from the left side which helps balance out our right handed heavy lineup.
Of course, there were a couple of higher rated free agents who also signed in February last offseason for significantly less dollars and years than originally projected…Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler. One reason was the stigma of their qualifying offers. Another might have been less than favorable advanced metrics, especially from a defensive standpoint. A third reason was the sheer volume of talented players in last year’s market and they happened to be the last of that group who were left standing without a chair when the money music stopped playing.
I was under the impression that a QO couldn’t effect a player in consecutive seasons. How did Desmond get hit with it again?
Under the old CBA not now. Both those QOs came under the old agreement.
Phillies should sign Boone Logan, Colby Rasmus, and perhaps Utley if he would want to come back as a utility infielder to finish his career.
Greg Holland would seem to be a great option for the Phillies as well.
Hey brixton, question for you. Im obviously a blue jays fan but always had a special place in my heart for the phillies due to halladay going there. What direction are they headed for in their rebuild? Can you give me some information about how the roster/prospects are shaping up?
The process it’s good news to take to get trumbo the Orioles should plug Carter into the dh spot, and add Jennings/Jackson to platoon with colby Rasmus in the OF. Heck they might still have money left over to add brandon Moss to platoon with Carter, the only problem being that some other teams may offer more playing time.
Prices it’s going to take** to get trumbo
Go back one more year to 2010, and you have that offseason’s top free agent Matt Holliday resigning with the Cardinals for $120M over 7 years in early January.