The Cardinals took a significant hit this week with the news that Alex Reyes will require Tommy John surgery, but the team doesn’t expect to pursue remaining free-agent arms to replace the touted 22-year-old, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com offers a similar take, noting that the organization will utilize Spring Training to evaluate right-handers Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver and Trevor Rosenthal (formerly the team’s closer, though Seung-hwan Oh now owns that title) as options.
Certainly, the free-agent market still bears a number of alternatives, though the majority of arms that are still available at this juncture of the offseason come with perhaps as many questions as any of St. Louis’ internal candidates. Doug Fister, Colby Lewis, Jake Peavy and Jered Weaver are among the top right-handed names left on the market, while Jorge De La Rosa and Jon Niese are the two available lefties that have most recently enjoyed big league success. None of the names in that group enjoyed a fully productive or healthy 2016 campaign. The trade market, of course, bears a far more appealing name in White Sox lefty Jose Quintana, but the asking price on the excellent southpaw remains extremely high.
Per Langosch, Wacha appears to be the early front-runner to join Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Mike Leake in what will be an all-right-handed rotation. Still just 25 years of age, Wacha has been plagued by shoulder injuries in recent seasons and posted a disheartening 5.09 ERA in 138 innings last year. However, his strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all remained fairly consistent relative to his more successful 2013-15 seasons, and his average fastball (93.2 mph) was the same as it was in a very solid 2014 campaign.
ERA alternatives pegged Wacha for a mark much closer to 4.00 than his 5.09 mark, with FIP leading the charge at a solid 3.91. Wacha did experience a stark increase in BABIP last season, as his average on balls in play rose from .272 in 2015 to .334 last year. Also working against him was a strand rate (64.7 percent) that sat six percent below his career mark. Wacha logged a 3.21 ERA in 353 innings from 2013-15, so it’s certainly plausible that he can return to form if his shoulder holds up.
As for Weaver (Luke, not Jered), the young right-hander was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2014 and has received some Top 100 prospect fanfare from pundits around the game. He posted a sensational 1.30 ERA in 83 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season, averaging 10.0 K/9 against 1.3 BB/9 before struggling in his MLB debut. The 23-year-old was charged with 23 earned runs on the strength of 46 hits and a dozen walks in 36 1/3 big league innings, resulting in a dismal 5.70 ERA. Weaver threw just six innings in Triple-A last season — his only experience at that level — so it’d hardly be a surprise if the preference among St. Louis decision-makers was for him to get a bit more minor league seasoning.
Rosenthal was at one point a vaunted starting pitching prospect broke but into the league as a reliever in 2012 and never looked back. He posted a 2.78 ERA with a 25-to-7 K/BB ratio in 22 2/3 innings of relief as a rookie and was entrenched in the ninth inning less than two calendar years later. Rosenthal, though, saw his control dissipate in 2016 (6.5 BB/9) and surrendered considerably more hits (on a rate basis) than he ever has in his career. A .425 average on balls in play against him assuredly didn’t help his cause, but throwing strikes and commanding the ball within the zone were both obvious issues for the former All-Star in 2016. Beyond that, his season was shortened by shoulder inflammation. In his absence, the newly signed Oh (who formerly starred as one of the best closers in KBO and NPB history) seized hold of the Cardinals’ closer role.
Looking past that trio, the Redbirds have options in the form of southpaws Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales as well as right-hander John Gant (who came over to the Cards in the Jaime Garcia trade). While the addition of depth on minor league deals should probably never be ruled out for any club, the Cards do seemingly possess enough depth to weather the loss of Reyes. Should further injuries arise in camp, the team could always look to external options, but significant additions don’t seem likely at this point.
Who needs pitching help when we have a log jam of great pitching like Mo-Ron says! DeCheap!!!
Mo-Ron?
He’s calling Mozeliak, who is frequently called Mo, a moron.
If the Cardinals could bring in one of the names listed on a minor league deal, then sure. But they definitely don’t need to go commit an MLB contract to old FA starters who are just as big of question marks as what they currently have on the team
And water is wet
Exactly. It’s the Cardinal way. Next guy up. And they are always in the playoff run every year. Barely missing out last year
But why would we want to just spray and pray year after year?? Why not just get some certainty. A trade for Quintana would totally flip the rotations’ expectancy on its head. But no, use a few failed and injured starters. That’s real smart, maybe if we’re lucky we’ll just miss the playoffs again.
Wacha is healthy now, and Weaver is a top prospect. There’s no need to sell the farm for a luxury.
They don’t have what it takes to get Q any way.
Because Chicago wants Reyes. Chicago doesn’t want Bader or Weaver. Without Reyes, there is no deal with Quintana..
Since Dave Duncan left the Cardinals, it sure seems like there have been an awful lot of Tommy John surgerys and an abundance of shoulder and firearm injuries to the Cardinal pitching staff. Others have ask about this too. What the heck is going on?????
The reason for this is the type of arms they have which are power pitchers. How many power pitchers did Dunc have?
duncan had his share of injured pitchers. it’s in the past and easy to forget.
He did as do every pitching coach
Ok…….but Duncan had the reputation of rebuilding pitchers. Like Chris Carpenter. Lilliquist or Matheney one have no clue as to how to use a “power pitcher” and keep them healthy at the same time. Common sense may be something they haven’t tried yet.
Bottom line is there is no good way to handle “power” pitchers these days. All will need tommy john at some point in their careers unless they are just lucky. These pitchers are ruined as kids. That’s the bottom line. Duncan had the reputation of making pitchers realize their potential. Carp still got hurt under him because carp was always hurt.
Good point about Carpenter. He blew his arm and side forever putting it all on the line to win the 2011 World Series.
White Sox looking for some hitting prospects. I hear the Cards have then. This makes to much sense.
Thank you. Plummer, Perez, Bader, Sierra, all work in this right.
Despite his impending TJ surgery, Rick Hahn might prefer none other than Alex Reyes as the centerpiece to any deal involving Jose Quintana. After all, the White Sox are in a rebuild and not expected to be contenders for another 3-4 years.
Reyes is a more advanced MLB ready “prospect” than virtually any of the White Sox own young pitching talents, which are numerous. A year of recovery and rehab would fit just fine in the White Sox long term plans.
exactly and the cards will not deal him especially with his value this low witch is why the deal won’t happen
Go ahead an give Jorge a roll…solid gutsy southpaw with low risk
Dodgers and Cards should consider a swap. Maybe Rosenthal for McCarthy. Both are coming off injuries and looking to bounce back.
I don’t think the Cards will want to take on additional salary though which is too bad. This trade could work out for both teams.
Where is the logic in that? McCarthy has 63 innings since 2014 with an ERA over 5. At least Rosenthal has considerable potential. Although, upon second glance I’ll admit McCarthy has had a nice FIP for several years now not counting 2015
We aren’t trading Rosie for McCarthy, basically an older, similarly injury prone version of Wacha. Very interesting peripheral stats on Wacha too. Maybe there is a chance for him to get back to his old form with some improved luck and better defense. God, it felt like he was throwing BP most of the last half of the year whenever he pitched though.
If anything I want to actually see how rosenthal does. I want wacha at the bottom of the list. He had an entire season to “prove himself”. Rosenthal showed real promise in his early extended relief role he showed toward the end of the season. I also think weaver has earned a chance to truly prove his worth. Wacha has exhausted his.
I would be okay with this strategy if the Cubs still sucked, but they are now the team to beat. This all but guarantees a wildcard goal, rather than the division. And if we’re lucky enough to make the playoffs, the top 3 starters will be gassed out. Leake and Wacha aren’t gonna give the necessary innings to relieve pressure on the rest of the starters.
Losing my patience with Moz. Sign Fister or De La Rosa. The pitching depth is all injury prone. Not good enough!
I’m not sure what kind of pitcher everyone expected Reyes to be as a rookie with control problems on an innings limit, but he shouldn’t be expected to be markedly better than a healthy, realized Wacha.
You do recall that Leake is an innings-eater, don’t you?
Check your stats. Leake is an innings eater. Part of his lackluster season last year was because the Cardinal’s infield defense sucked. With Fowler, Diaz and Wong in the middle all year (praying), Leake should rebound big time this year.
And Lynn is in a contract season. He will power through 200 innings like they’re a plate of waffles.
Innings ain’t my worry this year.
Reyes is a really good prospect but he wasn’t guaranteed to win a starting spot to start the season. There is a reason why Mo is the gm and all you are fans. He won’t make a knee jerk reaction when the cupboard isn’t close to bare.
It’s kind of a stretch but don’t forget Gomber
You might want to point out that Rosenthal’s control problems were because of the shoulder inflammation that eventually landed him on the DL. He was pitching hurt, whereas he was great once he returned in September. He should bounce back nicely, although the preference is still to have him continue to be a key piece in the bullpen.
Dark horse imo is Bowman. Yes he established him self as the most consistent reliever ( outside of Oh ) in the Cardinals Organization. But before he came to STL he was a starter. Maybe with the help of Lilliquist he could become the 5th starter or an option for a spot start. Just a thought.
Looks like they need Correa to break into the astros again so they can figure this out
Fister would be the best move for them- he’s a good pitcher and could eat up innings.
If they wanted to go lefty, then I’d take a look at Niese.