With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.
For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.
A bit more on tonight’s draft…
- Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
- As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
- The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.
Greene seems way too over hyped. His high school numbers are not all too impressive, but I realize he has potential. When they say top 10 as a hitter, they are being ridiculous because he hit like .310 in high school lol. Radar gun is the main reason why he will be drafted very high. If I were a twins fan, I would be praying to hear McKay called as the #1
Greene had a .75 ERA and high school hitters did hit .180 against him. He also only threw 28 innings. I don’t see why he should go that high in the draft. Gore has much better numbers and is said to be a smarter pitcher. He also threw way more innings than Greene
Greene throws 100 mph. Not many people can do that and that’s why he’s so hyped. I’d take him 1-1 if I were the Twins.
What’s his breaking pitches like or his changeup? If his secondary pitches are as equal to his heater then yes, number 1 overall.
He throws 95-97 regularly. 100 is not his average. He can hit it in a bullpen. Also secondary pitchers are still developing and mostly throw hitters off because of the velocity difference
So you know more then scouts and GM’s?
Obviously he doesn’t avg 100, thanks for the brilliant insight. He also is still growing and hasn’t reached his ceiling.
You’re scouting the stat line of a high school player. Don’t do that.
It seems weird that needs to be said. High school numbers mean so little. Performance with a proximity that far from the big leagues is about as inconsequential as it gets.
There’s a reason high school pitchers pretty much never go 1-1
Go read the SI article on Greene. He’s thrown so few innings because his high school pitcher refuses to over use him, and because he’s also got first round potential as a shortstop (both offensively and defensively). He attends the same high school that Giancarlo Stanton did, so the coach knows a thing or two about how to handle top talent.
He is just not a first round pick as a shortstop. Prob wouldn’t drop past mid third round as a hitter though.
I need the Pirates to draft this pitcher named Bukauskas.
Years of listening to yinzers call into the Fan and say “Booo-cows-kasss” in that Pittsburgh accent? That would be delightful
Would that be Buk to the Bucs?
Hmm
Lewis is represented by boras? So this kid could be legit and I already don’t like him
15-20% of the first round is repped by Boras, as are several members of the Padres organization, including Austin Hedges. Disliking a player because of who represents them is a weird way of looking at baseball. Every agent is trying to make their player the most money.
Not like boras
What do you think that Boras does that other agents don’t do, exactly? He’s just known for being the first baseball agent to be as vocal as he’s been about different things to talk up the market.
hope you like gore a lot cuz he’s represented by boras too
Correction every agent is trying to make themselves the most money. More money the player gets more money the agent gets. If you’re gunna hate anyone hate Scott Boras not his clients. And he has at least 400 clients throughout professional sports
Boras is really good at his job. For some people that’s really annoying. I’m glad he does a great job for his clients.
It’s not Boras’ fault that MLB’s financial system is so backward.
Not a big fan of Hiura. Hope the Braves look another direction. I say Wright or Beck at 5
Hiura is the wild card. He currently can’t throw and may need TJ but probably the most advanced bat in the draft.
I think the consensus is that he’s comfortably the best college hitter. Going to be interesting how far up the board that can take him.
The only real logical reason that I could see the braves targeting Hiura is that they think the need for surgery may significantly drive down the price to sign him (and they can use the money elsewhere).
I think that’s been the logic behind it the whole time
Hard to fathom that Royce Lewis would cut much of a deal with Scott Boras as his adviser, especially since the prep SS was already a consensus top-10 pick in this year’s draft.
Boras took the White Sox down to the final days of Carlos Rodon’s signing bonus deadline in 2014, finally agreeing on an over-slot deal for the collegiate pitcher who was the #3 overall pick behind two high school pitchers that June.
It does seem odd to think a Boras client would do that, but Lewis is not mentioned as a top 3 pick unless the Twins take him. The Reds aren’t and the Padres aren’t taking him either. So the best he could do would be 4th at $6,153,600.
Would he take $6.6M at 1? That would give the Twins a little over $1.1M to bank for later. If they gave all of that to pick 35, then the value goes from 35 money to pick 20 money.
Honestly, I wouldn’t play games and just take the best guy. There are too many teams who pick their 2nd pick before the Twins do. It’d have to be a guarantee and there are no guarantees.
For what it’s worth, in the latest mock drafts Bleacher Report has the Padres taking Lewis at #3, ESPN’s Keith Law and both Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of Mlb.com have Lewis going to the Rays at #4, FanGraphs has Lewis going to the Braves at #5 while Baseball America has him being selected by the Diamondbacks at #7.
I agree the Twins ought to just take who they perceive to be the best player with the #1 overall pick. In my mind and with their current roster and stage of rebuilding, that might be an advanced college arm like RHP Kyle Wright form Vanderbilt.
Yeah, I like Gore or Wright myself.
BA just updated theirs to say Lewis #1.
If you all were ball player I bet you all would love to have Boras as your agent. He is the best at what he does!