A Padres club already thin on rotation depth delivered some rough news for fans Monday, as manager Craig Stammen revealed that righty Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the injured list (video link via 97.3 The Fan). Musgrove hasn’t thrown in more than a week. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that he didn’t recover as well as hoped following an exhibition start against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic club.
It’s an ominous update, though it’s worth noting that Stammen didn’t suggest there had been a setback of any note. Musgrove hasn’t pitched since the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery that cost him the entirety of the 2025 campaign.
“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’d be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that could throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”
Getting a healthy Musgrove back in the fold will be key to the Padres’ chances at contending this season. San Diego’s rotation depth has thinned over the past year. Yu Darvish is injured and contemplating retirement. Dylan Cease became a free agent. Righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert were traded to the Royals last summer. Prospects Braden Nett and Henry Baez were sent to the Athletics as part of the Mason Miller trade.
A healthy Musgrove is arguably the Padres’ best pitcher. From 2021-24, the now-33-year-old righty gave his hometown club 559 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, fanning a sharp 25.5% of opponents against a terrific 6.1% walk rate. Musgrove doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting a bit north of 93 mph with his heater, but he has good command and induces both chases off the plate and swinging strikes at league-average or slightly better rates.
It’s always been fair to wonder how many innings the Padres can reasonably expect from Musgrove after a layoff of nearly 18 months. The uncertainty surrounding his workload is one of many pressing questions about San Diego’s starting staff.
The Padres now enter the year with Michael King (also coming off an injury-truncated season) and Nick Pivetta locked into spots. Randy Vásquez and free-agent pickup Germán Márquez are both likely to be in the starting five as well, though Márquez has been shelled this spring coming off his own worrying return from UCL surgery in Colorado. In 6 2/3 innings, he’s allowed nine runs on 10 hits and four walks. Vásquez posted a solid 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last season but did so with the third-worst strikeout rate (13.7%) of any pitcher in MLB (min. 100 innings pitched). Metrics like SIERA (5.43) and xFIP (5.51) both pegged him bottom-two in that same subset.
Options to fill out the rotation behind King, Pivetta, Vásquez and Márquez are fairly suspect. Left-hander JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t seemed to have the confidence of the organization since coming over alongside Miller in that aforementioned trade. The Friars gave him only five starts last year despite the fact that he’d been a staple in the Athletics’ rotation. He spent the rest of his time with the organization in Triple-A last summer, and Sears has had very rough spring (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings). Righty Matt Waldron is also on the 40-man roster but is behind in camp and could start on the IL himself. San Diego also signed Griffin Canning in free agency, but he’s a lock to open on the IL as he finishes rehabbing last year’s ruptured Achilles tendon.
In all likelihood, the Padres will need to break camp with at least one non-roster invitee in the rotation (barring further additions). Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are the most prominent names to have signed minor league deals this offseason. None of the three have pitched well this spring. Buehler is the only one who’s allowed fewer runs than innings pitched (four runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 frames).
Given the lackluster options and the nature of their early schedule, the Padres may not even fill Musgrove’s rotation spot at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres could open the season with a four-man rotation. Acee calls King, Pivetta and Vásquez locks, adding that Buehler has “likely” earned a spot, while Márquez’s spring struggles have at least created some doubt about his ability to handle the job.
San Diego has a pair of off-days within the first eight days of the season. That’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation twice in their first ten games. The Padres’ bullpen is among the deepest and most talented in the sport, too, so even when they finally do need a fifth starter, they could opt for a bullpen game while awaiting Musgrove to get into game shape. Someone like Márquez or Sears could open a bullpen game and perhaps navigate the opposing lineup once before turning over to the bullpen.
There’s no obvious answer in sight at the moment, which will make the final week-plus of camp worth watching with a careful eye. Each of Márquez, Sears, Buehler and Gonzales should have another appearance or two to try to stake a claim to the job, and ever-active president of baseball ops A.J. Preller could always try to creatively bring in another arm. One of the remaining free agents (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin) probably wouldn’t have time to ramp up for the season, but there will be plenty of names hitting waivers or being granted their release from minor league deals over the final few days of camp.
I hope Musgrove can make it back to the mound soon
Whatever happened with Yu? Did he get another TJ? Did he retire? How did that actually play out? I don’t think I ever heard the final answer.
Yu didn’t hear?
I thought he retired, but I may be wrong. It could have been just a rumor.
Yu don’t say. He is taking the year off, but not retiring.
4th article in 6 days here that repeats the news that Padres are being cautious with Musgrove in early April. Ominous update? Throughout the winter Stammen, Preller, Niebla and Musgrove have been consistent about him needing to be slowly built up likely to start on IL given the lax early April schedule.
Oh no. It’s happening again. MLBTR is coming after Padre fans !!
The inhumanity of it all.
There was arm discomfort though. Yeah, they would slowplay him either way, but the soreness is not welcome news. Hopefully it’s just from ramping up and no new damage.
discomfort not reported but recovery time from last start is taking time. Whatever we call it, it was expected if you take the information in the links from Lin, Acee, Stammen, 97.3 The Fan for face value and it’s the same news reported in articles here March 10, March 12, March 13, and now March 16. Which is fine, but I don’t see it as an ominous update. His health was never a given.
Will it be an ominous update if the same news is reported tomorrow, again Thursday, again Saturday?
lol.
There was no arm discomfort reported. No soreness. They have said only that Musgrove didn’t respond the way they wanted after his last start. He still threw a 45 pitch backfields intrasquad “game” on the 9th and a 30-pitch bullpen on the 11th but has not started another actual game since.
Good info. Thanks.
Thank you for clearing things up. I didn’t mean to inject deliberate misinformation or random FUD.
Here’s a not so ominous update from Jeff Sanders of SDUT reported today in an interview with Stammen about Musgrove:
The Padres expected there to be starts and stops along with setbacks and surges in bringing Joe Musgrove back from Tommy John surgery this year.
So the idea that Musgrove will “most likely start the season on the (injured list),” as Padres manager Craig Stammen said Monday morning, is not a shock.
“It’s been baked into the cake all along.”
“We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it would be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that can throw five innings, 90 pitches,” Stammen said. “This was part of the plan, and we knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have to get him ready for the entire season and not just opening day.”
Not really related, but fun. As he was standing in the on-deck circle in the 7th today I said, “Nick, it’s been a week since your last hit. You need to start driving the ball or you may find yourself in El Paso this summer.” Then he hit a home run.
Oh man that was kind of a mean thing to say in person but perhaps it motivated him.
As a Padres fan, I really hope it did. He is 1 for his last 16 including that HR. He has looked bored for a week. Averaging just 2.25 pitches per at bat while swinging at far too many bad 1st pitches and weakly grounding out just so he can go sit back down.
Ohtani was used very cautiously on the mound last season while returning from elbow surgery. He started as an opener for June-July, averaging an inning or two per start over 5 starts. For the full season he averaged just 3 innings per start over 14 starts. Nobody considered that “ominous”.
The homegrown kid will be fine. This is normal post-surgery build-up.
It’s only ominous if they didn’t plan for this and rush him, as you said.
the Dodgers have unreal depth…
Joe can still hit. I remember going to a game a few years back where he was in Left Field and Cronenworth was pitching. Let’s get Joe some reps in the outfield.
He will need to play with a wrong side glove since he might have to throw it in from the outfield. Maybe DH? Pinch hitter?
NL West in October:
1. Dodgers
2. SF Giants
3. Padres
Years ago my wife purchased a taxidermy animal labeled a “Russian Beaver” as a Christmas present on eBay. It did come from Russia. I did need to let her know it was a muskrat however. Maybe I shouldn’t have and let her go on thinking that’s just what beavers in Russia look like.
To be fair, I’ve seen Russian beavers and they kinda all look alike…
Wade, this was not the Russian Beaver story I was looking for!
We nicknamed him High and Tight.
Poor lil muskrat wanted to be just a bit outside…
Nothing like a tight beaver! I prefer mine lucid and sober though.
You won’t find that in Russia.
водка!
Muskrat, muskrat
Candlelight
Doin’ the town
And doin’ it right in the evening
It’s pretty pleasing
Muskrat Love? Toni and Tennille?
Captain
Yes. Toni was her first name. Good catch.
One of my favorite songs at the time
I had the 8 track!
The most surreal thread I have read on MLBTR.
And that’s saying a lot
I was really hoping to expand some minds and maybe freak out some squares. Everyone really ran with it!
Golly Beaver! Muskrat love was sure a swell song!
And gee whiz Wally, it didn’t even morph into the greatest Beaver of all time – Jerry Mathers!
This ain’t your dad’s Russian beaver, kid
Stammen SMH. I wish I could be more optimistic about this managerial pick. No experience whatsoever. And I’m wracking my brain without cheating to try to come up with another reliever who went directly into managing like this…
The last one i can think of was Phil Regan with the ’95 Orioles, but he had years of minor league/major league coaching experience first
Buehler probably makes it, and depending on the results either sticks around or gets jettisoned off the roster whenever Musgrove or Canning is ready
Today’s likelihood, could change tomorrow. Keep us posted!
Would love to see Walker back in the Dodgers organization on the chance they can get him right. Getting 85% of old Walker back in the playoff bullpen? That just might be a great story in the making
Stammen praises Marquez. Says Buehler still has a shot to earn a spot on staff, not in rotation. Buehler is on the mound for the Padres right now. Acee says that Buehler has earned a spot in the rotation.
Stammen says the team will not use a 4-man rotation to start the season. Acee says they could. I happen to agree with Acee on this one that as long as Musgrove will be ready by the 10th of April that the Padres could start the season with a 4-man rotation because of 2 days off in first 8 games. But Stammen says they won’t. I get what Stammen is saying. They want to limit innings as much as possible early in the season for everyone including the pen.
Hart has a 0.00 ERA, 13 SO, and 3 BB in 11.2 IP. If any of the others have earned a spot in the rotation, it’s him. He probably starts the season as the long man out of the pen to go multiple innings when Marquez or Buehler blows up.
Canning will be ready by the end of April. When he is ready someone that has no options will be saying goodbye.
Buehler looked good today against Giants backups and minor leaguers. Still only sitting 92 mph.
Buehler’s slider and sweeper are good offerings to righties and he can use the knucklecurve and changeup well against lefties, so I think he has enough going on in his pitch mix to survive without his old FB velocity.
Its kind of clear now that the fastball is a below average offering given he can’t reach the upper 90’s anymore, so I am wondering if they’re going to lean more into the breaking and offspeed pitches since the metrics seem to favor those. He’s going to have to be crafty.
He started this spring throwing 95-96 in his bullpens and backfields scrimmages. Then he got into games and the velocity dropped 3-4 mph. He will not get top hitters out with as small of a difference in velocity as he has from his FB to his offspeed pitches. That has been proven out in camp so far with batters that were starting position players in the majors last season have gone 9 for 27 off him compared to a .244 BA overall. Against the Giants yesterday, batters that are expected to be in their starting lineup plus their backup at catcher went 4 for 10 against him.
He might survive it if he moves to the pen and focuses on his cutter and offspeed pitches. It’s going to be interesting and I wish him luck. The Padres need all the depth they can get.
Chavez Latrine now to be known as Uniqlo Field as Dodgers sell naming rights to Japanese clothing company.
They want to shorten musgroves season and get a better read on beuhler, marquez, gonzales and caning. It’s possible 2 of those 4 will stick and be just above mlb average. Just need to make the playoffs again. The team thats better than wbc team usa is in their division. I think we are a couple years away from older stud free agent pitchers waiting to sign at trade deadline for full money.
Canning is looking really good on the mound but still is only doing PFP, not fielding against live hitters. He should be back by the end of April. Maybe early May at the latest. He will have a spot in the rotation.
Marquez looked really good today 5 IP. 3 Hits. 1 BB. 9 SO. Velocity sitting at 95.3 mph. Guys that are expected to be on the Mariners roster went 1 for 15 with a HBP. The 4 that are expected to start went 1 for 9. He did give up 2 solo HR including one to Raley, but its spring training, so not a big deal.
If Stammen decides to go with 5 starters and Musgrove is out for a couple of starts, Marquez is the #4 and Buehler is probably the #5 with Hart as the long reliever.
Promising to see Márquez bounce back today.
thank you wbc! that makes atleast half a dozen quality players lost to injury in the past 2 wbc tournaments