Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft kicks off tonight at 7pm ET, and the Twins will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since selecting local catcher out of St. Paul’s Cretin-Derham Hall high school named Joe Mauer back in 2001. While some draft classes have a very clear top overall pick (e.g. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. There have been rumors circulating about who the Twins will select No. 1 overall tonight for months, now, and the top three names on the board, at the very least, seem to be clear….
- Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, Calif.): Greene has been the most talked-about player in the draft class for the past year. A two-way high school star that has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and generated awe with a fastball that has reached 102 mph, Greene sits atop the draft rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. However, while he has the highest upside in the class, there’s also never been a high school right-hander selected No. 1 overall in the draft, and the risks associated with a prep pitcher are greater than those associated with a college player or even a fellow high school pitcher. Most mock drafts from experts have had the Twins passing on Greene, though he’s undoubtedly a tempting option for the new-look Minnesota front office.
- Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt: Wright ranks first on Fangraphs’ list of draft prospects, just edging out Greene for that top spot. Over the past month, he’s been the most oft-connected name to the Twins, with most draft experts and scouting reports touting him as the best combination of ceiling and certainty. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and can reach 97 mph, Wright also has solid control and three secondary offerings that scouting reports peg as average to above-average. He may not have generated as much fanfare and intrigue as the two-way stars that join him atop the draft class, but Wright is very much in the mix to go first overall.
- Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville: Scouting reports on McKay are split on whether his best long-term fit is on the mound or as a position player, but there’s a general belief that he could excel either way. Whether a team prefers McKay as a pitcher or a hitter, he seems like a virtual lock to go in the top five of the draft. MLB.com’s report gives him a future 60-grade rating in either role, while ESPN’s Keith Law notes that he showed a bit of fatigue on the mound late in the season. Dedicating himself fully to one discipline under a professional coaching/player development staff could allow McKay to take his game to a new level in either direction. The Twins have been connected to McKay quite often, and while most mocks had Wright going No. 1 overall for the past month, McKay’s name has regained a bit of steam in the past few days.
Readers can check out more details on this year’s draft class by diving into the excellent work from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (free); Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (free); Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required/recommended); and John Manuel and his team over at Baseball America (subscription required and, once again, recommended).
But, if you already have an opinion on the matter formed, let’s get right to the poll (link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
I think McKay because he’s the most bust proof player if he fails at hitting or pitching he has the other to fall back on.
Just like Kieschnek, Right?
Don’t compare, these guys aren’t the same person.
The only pick we care about is who goes #1 and then let the other 100 rounds because the draft is way to long
please explain why so many ppl get a hard on when a pitcher throws 100 mph? if he doesn’t have control or the ability to locate a pitch, 100 mph don’t mean a damn thing. just my opinion.
He does have the ability to locate and has the makings of good secondary offerings…on top of that he is still just 17
He’s also 17 and doesn’t face top talent as a high school player. 100 mph gets past a minimum of 6 players in the vast majority of high school lineups, regardless of location.
He played on the PG circuit which is as elite of talent as there is for that age group
he has a 70 rated fastball, a 55 rated slider, and a below average change 45 rated….thats it, it looks like he will end up in the pen to me, simply a one trick pony
A 55 is above average on the 20-80 scouting scale. With 50 as average, Greene won’t have to improve his change much to have a plus fastball, above average slider and an average change. That’s a starter’s arsenal, especially with the way Green controls and commands his pitches. High school pitchers usually don’t throw a change often, meaning he has plenty of room for it to improve.
Yea, I’m assuming you’re talking about Greene, which if so the kid has shown pretty good control. Guys who throw a hundred with no control go later.
Riley pint went early last year
I agree with the original comment, all the starters you see throwing 100+ are always on the DL, to be a star you should probably throw mid 90s with 2-3 other pitches to go to, not saying 100+ MPH pitchers can’t make it but I think that McKay is in a better position than Greene
Greene’s problem has never been control/command. The issue that comes up is that some believe he will develop good/great secondary pitches, but don’t believe he has them currently. Others say he does have them currently.
Some like Gore over Greene because he already has a feel for his secondaries and is said to be more advanced than Greene in that regard.
Gore the lefty has 4 above average pitches ,is a much better selection then either of the 3 the Twins are linked to……
I agree. It’s hard for me to choose between Gore or Wright. I think Gore has the potential to be the best pitcher out of the bunch so I guess I’d lean him.
I like either, but seems like it’s going to be McKay.
That’s the thing with Hunter Greene. He has hit 102 and generally sits 95-97 with exquisite control and strong command. For his fastball and command of it, Greene has drawn comparisons to Dwight Gooden. Plenty of other flame throwers, though, don’t possess such control and will be selected later.
McKay #1 to the Twins
Wright #2 to the Reds
Greene #3 to the Pads
Yup
No way Reds pass on Greene…just sayin.
Hunter green wont get past the reds in my opinion
The Reds are on record as saying they will take McKay or Greene.
Everything I’ve ears suggests the Reds are going Greene
*read
I don’t think Greene gets to the Padres. I think Cincy covets Greene, and Wright gets to SD, although they’ve been linked to Gore. I’d love to see SD pick Royce Lewis but if he can’t stay at short then he’s probably off the board for them. If Keston Hiura didn’t have medical stuff I’d love to see the Padres take him.
No way the Reds take Wright. They are going with Greene if he’s there, or McKay if Greene goes #1
Any speculation on who the Royals should draft at 14 overall? Some of their prospects (other than pitchers) I think can help the team if they have a fire sale. Ryan O’hearn looks good so far and Bonifacio has been helpful this year in the big leagues.
Jake Burger…2 1/2 hours up the road. Unreal power for Mo State
Taylor Rogers, High school lefty
Trevor Rogers if he is still there. He actually went to Kauffman Stadium to work out in front of Royals brass.
Not impressed with Burger. Non athletic body comp and poor showing in SR.
All I care about is that the Reds don’t take McKay. To me as a pitcher his ceiling is Mike Leake. Leake is a fine pitcher but you don’t use a top two draft pick on that ceiling..
Also Green has been thought of as a top 15 talent as a hitter as well so it isn’t like McKay is the only bust proof player.
Why do people throw around words like “bust-proof?” There is no such thing as a guarantee in the MLB draft. There are players less likely to bust, but there has never been a prospect with ZERO chance of busting in the history of the game.
No player is bust-proof, but if you’re looking at the odds of a first round burst, a high school pitcher is high risk, no matter who it is
If you get Leake’s career in the first round that is actually really good. Most first round picks bust.
Most late first round picks maybe. But the vast majority of top-2 picks aren’t busts
I think McKay’s floor as a pitcher would be more like Mike Leake.
Think Rooker will be there at 33? I really like him but the a’s taking him at 6 is a stretch
I hope the A’s get Rooker with their second pick as well.
Twins: McKay
Reds: Greene
Padres: Gore
Rays: Wright
Braves: Beck
Athletics: Lewis
Definitely could see it played by out this way. My hope is the Twins go Greene or Wright but wouldn’t be too upset with any of the top four.
Padres worked out Wright on Friday. I don’t think he gets past #3 if he is on the board.
Callis is now saying that Royce Lewis is being considered by the Twins. Not sure what the data is, but I generally go with the most recently reported name.
That would probably be a signability pick; they could get him for a couple million under slot and then overspend later on a bigger upside guy.
yeah he’s deffinatly not the top guy
I think McKay goes #1, Greene #2, Wright#3. Gore#4. Lewis #5. The big shock in the first ten is going to probably be Hiura. I could also see the Braves on Jeren Kendall because he just feels like a Braves-type prospect.
I feel like they’re going McKay. Wouldn’t be my first choice but I wouldn’t be too mad.
I know Lewis has been mentioned this morning, but I feel like that’s just a play.
If Greene really wanted to hold out and play for a so-cal team could he not sign with the Reds if the draft him at 2 and go play for a junior college team next year with the thought that San Diego will have the number 1 overall pick next year that they will take him with?
I believe he’s committed to UCLA so he’d have to wait three years. I think that’s the rule, but not 100 percent positive.
Yeah I think you are right, unless he went to a J.C. which then he could leave after next year I believe. That’s what Bryce Harper did.
If he goes JUCO he could come out again next year. If he went to UCLA he could come out after his junior year. Harper went JUCO because Boras was trying to steer him to Washington and also he needed to learn to play the outfield
Shall be interesting to see what he does. Depending on how serious he is about staying local, I can see him going to play a year of JUCO ball if that means he gets to play in San Diego instead of Cincinnati.
That’s only if San Diego has the worst record at the end of the year. Currently the Phillies have the worst record. There are quite a few teams still in contention for that as of now. That is also assuming he wants to risk injury for another year of play without getting paid.
He wouldn’t have to go to UCLA. Those are verbal commitments and he can go to a JC if he decides that’s what he wants to do. He certainly would not be the first HS player to do that. Maybe the first to go in the top 2 in the draft though.
He certainly could, but that would take a big set of ba!!s to do that. He would be turning down $6M+, in the hopes that he doesn’t get hurt and that the Padres actually do finish dead last this season. Don’t get me wrong, as a Padre fan, I would love for this scenario to happen, but at the same time, a HSer taken advantage of the system like that wouldn’t sit well with me. I’m a little torn on the issue. One other scenario would be, the Twins and Reds don’t take him and the Padres also pass at #3, with Greene immediately letting teams know he will not sign now that he has fallen past the Padres. The Padres could/would then draft him in the 2nd round and then “easy sign guys” the rest of the way. Again, a lot of guts would be needed for either scenario.
There’s always the Karsten Whitson disaster scenario. Whitson turned down a huge bonus out of HS, went to college, wrecked his arm. Took a much smaller bonus out of college and never developed.
There is also the Matt Harrington disaster. I believe he was drafted 4 times, from 1st round to 2nd round to lower round to lower round, but never did sign. I remember reading a story that he was working at his local Walmart. Turned down $5M or so the 1st time he was drafted, it almost makes me sick, I can’t imagine how it makes him feel.
Yeah. He sells tires at his local WalMart. To be honest, he’s been very upfront about all his mistakes. He was drafted five times, actually, but he also pitched poorly in independent leagues. His original agent was awful and by the time he hired Boras he just wasn’t an elite talent anymore.
They should just take righty wright, so the reds can take Greene and the padres can have McKay
Sounds like the Padres want Greene or Gore.
For some reason I really like Bubba Thompson, not as a top 15 pick, but I kind of want the Mariners to get him at 17.
Royce Lewis is going to be a stud. If he gets to Oakland at 6, oh wee. Lazarito and Lewis coming up around the same time would be fun to see.
All other things being equal or close, I’d like to see the Pirates go for a college pitcher.
McKay is a #3 type starter, works normaly in the 89-91 mph range…nothing about that says front of the rotation type pitcher….
Wright average fastball is a hair under the MLB average fastball,but is a better pick then Mckay…..
Greene has that triple digit fastball, and a slightly above average slider,and below average change….it screams closer, not starter to me…..
Gore the lefty touches 97 mph ,works 92-95 ,has 4 above average pitches,his wart is he is only 6ft. 2 in.
Finally the steal of the draft,the guy the Twins should take 1/1 and sign for 2.5-3 million under slot value , is Shane Baz,17 yrs old, touches 98 mph ,works 92-96 mph
has 5 pitches 4 above average, and an average change…….he like Gore will add a click or 2 over the next couple years…..
I think Royce Lewis