Major League teams have been informed that the 2017 qualifying offer will be in the range of $18MM, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). More specifically, Olney notes that the exact value could end up being $18.1MM.
That figure would represent a $900K spike from last year’s $17.2MM qualifying offer value and, paired with changes to the qualifying offer system, would make it more difficult to extend such an offer to borderline free agents. The QO is calculated each year by determining the mean salary of the league’s top 125 players.
Under the 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement, any player who rejects a qualifying offer would then cost a new team its top unprotected draft pick upon signing. (The first 10 selections of the draft were protected on a yearly basis.) The team that lost the free agent would then receive a compensatory pick immediately following the first round.
The QO system has changed under the 2017-21 CBA, however, as the new default rule calls for the compensatory pick to land after the completion of Competitive Balance Round B. However, there are two exemptions to the rule:
- If the team that lost said free agent paid the luxury tax in the preceding season, its compensation pick would fall in the after the completion of the draft’s fourth round.
- Conversely, if the team that lost said free agent received revenue sharing in the preceding season and saw the free agent sign a contract worth a guaranteed $50MM or more, the compensation pick would be moved to the end of the first round.
The penalties that a club pays upon signing a player that rejected a QO have changed as well:
- Any team that paid the luxury tax in the preceding season will forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft selections in next year’s draft as well as $1MM of its international bonus pool in the upcoming period.
- A team that did not exceed the luxury tax threshold but contributes to revenue sharing would forfeit its second-highesr draft pick as well as $500K of its upcoming international bonus pool.
- A team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax and also received revenue sharing in the preceding season would forfeit only its third-highest pick in the next year’s draft.
The newly bargained agreement also stipulates that a player may receive a qualifying offer once and only once in his career, so any player that has previously received the QO is exempt, regardless of whether he accepted or rejected his first QO. Players that were traded or signed midseason also remain exempt from receiving a qualifying offer.
The increasing size of the qualifying offer will likely further limit the number of players that receive such an offer this winter, though there are certainly still a number of candidates. Yu Darvish is the easiest call among impending free agents (assuming he isn’t traded), while others such as Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Greg Holland all stand out as logical candidates (once Holland turns down his $15MM player option). Depending on the way in which their season finishes, players like Masahiro Tanaka and Jay Bruce could also emerge as considerations (though Bruce could well be traded, thus negating the issue).
Eric Hosmer is not an 18M/yr player. That is all. Carry on.
Doesn’t mean he won’t get paid at that level or more. And to his credit, he could end up with his third three-win season this year (.340/.394/.536 in his past 320 PAs).
Not saying I’d go near him at that rate, but he’s an easy call to make the QO. He’ll reject it in favor of a much longer deal — even if it’s at a lower annual rate.
Steve–if he falters in the second half, and returns to 2016 or 2014 levels, do you think his aggregate numbers would still justify the QO?
With Hosmer I think they’ll make the QO regardless. Scott Boras will pitch him as a premium free agent no matter how he finishes the year.
Kansas City will probably make some effort to re-sign him either way, so keeping him at 1/18 likely isn’t a disaster scenario for them.
Then he will be available? Y’all want to sign him?
Neither is half the players that get the QO. Thats not the point of the system
Those QO updates remind us again how MLB took the Union to school in the last CBA.
The Mets couldn’t give away Bruce last off-season. There is so much OF talent out there, I can’t fathom giving this guy even close to 18MM
Which cuts the price we get for him, then…
The Mets couldn’t give Bruce away bc he cratered after the trade. This year he is mashing and his defense is at least avg. He is the best bat still available.
I kind of dislike this QO system. I liked more the arbitration one for some reason. Even if you didn’t lose a tier 0 FA, you still got compensated.
So what does that mean for Crozart does Cincinnati offer him the QO sign him long term or try and get something for him. Judging by what JD got back for Detroit.
I would like to have him in Pittsburgh NH said if we swept Milwaukee he would buy. He saved money on Kang and Marte use it
The way Tanaka is pitching he’d be foolish to opt out of the guaranteed three years and $67 million he has remaining. If he gets it together in those 3 years he’d only be 31 and could cash in again. If he continues like this year he still gets the $67 million.
Lance Lynn…
I agree. Lynn will probably get a QO from the Cardinals.
In a few years the QO will be north of 20 mil and it’ll gradually fade away and only offered to stars.
Not if revenue keeps rising like it has for the last two decades.
Even with increased revenue. MLB will go the same way as other sports, high dollars for stars and then fill in the rest. Harper will be the gist to top 40 mil a year and it’ll only go up from there.
Hard to make the comparison to the other major sports – NFL has a massive non-guarantee money issue which skews contract values massively, and the NBA has a far more restrictive cap that leads to star players taking not much more (in some cases, no more at all) than above-average players.
LeBron James has the 4th highest contract value next year – less than Kyle Lowry and Blake Griffin. Paul Millsap and Mike Conley will earn more than James Harden. Heck, Steven Adams will earn more than Carmelo Anthony. To say it’s high dollars for stars and then fill in the rest isn’t quite right.
Everything is going up, not just the 1%’ers.
Not if revenue keeps rising like it has the last two decades…..
Will the Cards give one to Lynn?
I fail to see what the purpose of the QO really is anymore. I don’t get how it’s done anything to improve the game. The A/B system was flawed but it was relatively predictable and objective.
Cubs will offer a QO to Arrieta. How about Wade Davis?
I’m not sure on either one. If i’m Arrieta I probably take that offer and run. Nobody should be too anxious about offering a multiyear deal to a 0.2 WAR pitcher with a QO attached.
As a Cub fan I’d do cartwheels if both stayed one year 18 million each. Seeing Davis >Chapman and Arietta> almost any #3 they won’t .
I’m guessing you wouldn’t be the only one, probably Arrieta and Boras would be doing cartwheels as well, considering he would be getting the QO out of the way and a raise after underachieving for 2 years in a row. Unless he dominates the last 2 months, he will be lucky to get a 3 year 45 MM deal, assuming no QO of course.
If I can say anything positive out of Arrieta, is that he’s been a workhorse, which is nice, and teams will pay for that. But 0.1 WAR won’t (or at least shouldn’t) cut it.
It’ll cut it. Look what Ian Kennedy got from the Royals.
Yeah and look at how it has turned out for them. Everyone knew how awful that was from the start. But you’re right, there might be some dumb team willing to pony up the cash for him.
So Jeff Samardzija gets 5 yrs $88M after a 4.96 ERA season, but Arrieta will be “lucky” to get 3 yrs $45M with a Cy Young, 2.53, and 3.10 season in three of his past four years?
Makes sense..
2 years ago Arrieta would have scoffed at the possibility of a QO, but I bet he thinks long and hard about it now. Probably wishing for it.
They probably won’t make the offer, but Duda should be a candidate. Yes, $18 million per is way too high for him, but for a one year comittment it makes sense- I don’t love the idea of both Rosario and Smith being counted on next year.
Glad the White Sox no longer have to make a decision regarding a QO to Todd Frazier. Hopefully they can deal impending FA Melky Cabrera before the trade deadline and avoid a similar issue with him next offseason.
Todd and Melky were not candidates for the QO. Melky may get the Sox a lottery pick.
Todd Frazier is no longer a candidate for a QO from the Yankees now that he has been traded during the season but would have been had he remained with the White Sox through the end of the current campaign. Same goes for Melky Cabrera which was all in my comment.
The QO is worthless- it deters teams, esp small market teams, from going out and signing guys with a QO attached.
What should be done is the union and MLB should decide on a player rating like war fwar whatever measurement they can agree on and have tiers based on brackets- different for pitchers and position players.
Based on the bracket if team A loses player 1 to team B team A picks ups extra pick in say rounds 1-10 depending on their rating bracket. These picks are tradeable in deals as well and count towards a teams pool money for the draft. These picks happen at the end of each round. But, a team cannot have more than 8 of these picks in a season (from free agents picks from trades are ok) and get the highest of the picks awarded to them when losing free agents.
Say the brackets mean:
tier 1 1st and a 3rd,
tier 2 2nd and a 4th,
tier 3 3rd and a 5th,
tier 4 4th and a 6th,
tier 5 5th and a 7th
tier 6 6th and a 8th
tier 7 7th and a 9th
tier 8 8th and a 10th
Teams that lose free agents get to recoup value, teams that sign free agents arent punished, and teams could theoretically trade impending free agents for picks in deals. And the only real punishment is team b is pushed back in certain rounds.
Plus you can see teams moving up in drafts to get guys and such.
Or could just be 1 pick per tier and you can get a pick for up to max 8 free agents.
i just got a qualifying offer for a job at KFC, they gonna give me a striped shirt, $8.50/hr, and a piece of burnt hair with a a little bit of chicken wrapped in it.
Sounds like a good offer for an impending FA from the chain gang…
slept on it and…i’m taking my talents to the great city of South Philadelphia, suiting up for the W. Oregon St. KFC