We took a look recently at the pitchers who have done the most this year to drive big first-time arbitration salaries this fall. Today, we’ll look at some position players that have done the same.
For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz ascertained about six years ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.
While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2017 to boost their next salaries. We’ll assume that marginal Super Two candidates such as Carlos Correa, Eddie Rosario, and Tommy Pham will not sneak in and gain eligibility. Here’s the list:
Mookie Betts, Red Sox — Though he hasn’t been quite as exciting as he was last year and excels in some areas (contact, defense, baserunning) that don’t pay much in arbitration, Betts still easily cracks this list. Among the players listed here, he leads the way with 553 plate appearances and is second with 76 RBI. He also has swatted 18 long balls on the year, though obviously he won’t match last year’s tally of 31.
Justin Bour, Marlins — An injury has really hurt Bour’s case, but it’s tough to ignore what he did before going down. Over 339 plate appearances, the slugger swatted 21 home runs with 63 RBI. There’s no chance he’ll take home anything like the paydays of the players that sandwich him on this list, but Bour has earned a solid payday for 2018 while also locking down a starting role for the foreseeable future.
Kris Bryant, Cubs — The 25-year-old isn’t anywhere near to last year’s pace when it comes to the key counting stats, as he has only 23 home runs and 55 runs batted in through 511 plate appearances. But that’s only sparse in relative terms, and Bryant’s overall track record — including Rookie of the Year and MVP nods — will get him a huge and much-deserved payday as a Super Two.
Maikel Franco, Phillies — There’s no sugarcoating this season for Franco, who is reaching base at an anemic .277 clip and isn’t even playing at replacement level. Fortunately for him, an arbitral panel would likely largely look past the broader picture. Despite his broader struggles, Franco has still managed to leave the yard 17 times and drive in 59 runs over 494 plate appearances.
Jake Lamb, Diamondbacks — The third baseman has turned in a big season at the dish for Arizona. Through 503 plate appearances, he has smacked 27 round-trippers — just barely pacing the rest of the names on this list. Better still, he’s a shoo-in to reach triple-digits in the sabermetrically disfavored, arbitrationally relevant RBI statistic. With 95 already in the bag, Lamb is lapping the competition in this cohort.
David Peralta, Diamondbacks — Peralta’s case is weaker in every way than is his teammate’s. In fact, he just nudged out Kevin Pillar of the Blue Jays for inclusion. But with 13 dingers and 43 ribbies over 438 plate appearances — not to mention a .303 batting average — Peralta sneaks in amongst the top ten. (Pillar, for what it’s worth, has managed a dozen homers and has nearly reached 500 plate appearances, but has only driven in 32.)
Steven Souza, Rays — What makes this such an exciting season for Souza isn’t even what is going to get him paid. Right now, he’s running a walk rate that’s double what he carried in 2016. And the power has been there, too, with 26 bombs and 73 RBI over 494 plate appearances. Souza should earn well in his first trip through arbitration.
Eugenio Suarez, Reds — Speaking of exciting walk totals, Suarez has ramped up from a 4.3% rate in 2015 all the way to 14.0% this year. He’s also knocking the ball around the yard, with 21 homers and 64 runs batted in through an even 500 trips to the plate.
J.T. Realmuto, Marlins — The standout Marlins backstop doesn’t have gaudy numbers, but his solid output and heavy workload — only Buster Posey has more plate appearances among catchers — ought to play in his favor. Realmuto has 14 home runs and fifty RBI through 432 plate appearances; he’s also carrying a .287 batting average.
Mike Zunino, Mariners — Last but not least, we find another catcher who happens to be one of the game’s most extreme sluggers. Zunino has driven the ball out of the park 18 times in just 322 plate appearances … while recording a hefty 121 strikeouts to go with his 48 RBI and anemic .222 batting average. Zunino will also benefit from the fact that he would have been a Super Two last year if he had been on the active roster for enough days; as a result, he had already logged quite a few plate appearances (1,247) — and, yes, dingers (50) — entering the season. Honorable mention on the catching side of things goes to James McCann of the Tigers and Cameron Rupp of the Phillies, each of whom has nudged into double-digit home-run tallies.
I was really hoping for previous years comps and projected salaries for the upcoming year
That will come after the season when Matt runs his projections (and also breaks down the most interesting cases in additional detail). We could make guesstimates by projecting numbers through the end of the year and such, but … his magic formulas will be much more accurate and aren’t far off.
I don’t give Franco a raise of 5 dollars ! Horrible plate discipline, doesnt take well to coaching, not great in the field this year. I trade him ASAP
“I don’t give Franco a raise of 5 dollars ! ……………. I trade him ASAP””
Oh, that would bring a huge haul of talent back huh?
Good time to put Aaron Nola out there and see what you can get.
Franco has talent. Most Baseball execs know that. So He hasn’t developed as quickly as hoped……doesn’t negate his “potential”. Just brings a few more suitors into the room.
Several Teams would love to have him at 3B…..and his bat in the lineup. Has he cleared waivers? Doubtful….
***Cardinals might bite, because they need both! If the Cards were smart…..and the players had cleared waivers……they’d cut a deal for Franco & Nola RIGHT NOW!
C’est LaVie
There’s a huge difference between “would love to have him” and “would be willing to give up anything of value to acquire him.” I’m sure every team would take him – if he was free…
Bryant driving in 32 of his fellow team mates is abysmal, and hopefully, embarrassing. For those that see the Rbi as a lucky happenstance, it’s his team mates fault. For those that see it as a skill, he’s putting up numbers like the pitcher is batting behind him. When almost half your Rbi’s are from driving yourself in, it shows that you can’t hit with runners on.
It’s probably Bryant’s fault rather than his teammates. He’s hitting only .222/.342/.433 with men on base, and he has yet to record an extra – base hit in a high – leverage situation this year. That said, he was better at hitting with RISP last season, and I find it hard to believe that a player who has basically never struggled in his professional career is unable to perform in clutch situations. This feels more like a sample size fluke than some sort of damning aspect of his profile, as you seem to be implying
It’s Pillar that has driven in 32, not Bryant, fwiw.
Jeff? He’s talking about RBI not generated by himself so 55-23 homers = 32
Oh, cool. Just ironic that I used that same exact phrasing to describe Pillar’s RBI output. (Incorrectly, as it turns out … was just running out of ways to say the same thing. I’ll edit that line.)
Jeff, he’s talking about RBI not generated by himself so 55-23 homers = 32
I think he was subtracting the RBI that he would get from his own HRs. 55-23 = 32.
That being said, you also have to account for the fact that he’s spent a significant portion of the year hitting behind a failed leadoff experiment in Schwarber. When your leadoff guy is hitting below the Mendoza line, you’re probably going to miss out on a lot of RBI opportunities.
Personally, I see no cause for concern whatsoever with Bryant. He has been every bit as productive as last year, even without quite the counting stats.
Isn’t it the counting stats that makes one productive?
HUGE home run in game 5 of the World Series, big home run game 6 of the World Series, big at bats and bigger base running in game 7 of the World Series. Hardly unable to perform in clutch situations. With all the negatively, he still leads he Cubs in hits, average and on base percentage. MVP year? Nope. Blip cherry picking stats…yep.
All of which happened last year… This is 2017, not 2016.
Babe Ruth did a lot of stuff in the past too—doesn’t change history at all. Point was that I was agreeing that aff10 a handpicked, small sample size doesn’t define him as someone who doesn’t hit in the clutch.
That literally couldn’t have any less to do with the conversation. This conversation is about his post-2017 arbitration – a season in which he has been terrible at driving in runs. What he did in 2016 doesn’t change that.
And no, I don’t think Bryant is as bad with runners on base as he has been this season, but the numbers are supporting the eye test right now. He’s clearly struggling in high leverage situations. I’m sure he’ll bounce back next year, but that doesn’t change how bad he has been this year, which will certainly have an effect on his arbitration numbers.
Also, I’m not so sure I’d write off a 116 game sample size as being small when he has only played in 422 total games. We’re getting close to the point where that is almost a third of his career. That might just be a personal thing though.
He doesn’t have 116 games worth of high leverage plate appearances this year. He has <100 PA in high leverage situations this year. I hardly think you dismiss almost 1800 plate appearances of elite production over 3 years because of less than 100 specific PA spread out over one season.
And cherry picking stats is what clubs do when it comes to arbitration numbers. Sure 2016 he did great but the point of the article was point out some shortcomings of each player this year but I can guarantee you that teams will point out to his “subpar” numbers this year during arbitration.
Bryant puts up big numbers in low leverage situations. I watch almost every Cubs game, only missed a few. He’s not very good with men in scoring position, and it seems like when he does get a hit with runners in scoring position, it’s when the game is out of hand. Great hit with the bases juiced, Cubs are up by 8 already. His average for high leverage situations is near the bottom of the league and was last year. I didn’t even think he was the Cubs MVP last year, let alone the NL MVP. Huge Cubs fan and Bryant fan, but he’s not as great as the media and everyone makes him out to be. He will be, he’s very young yet, this is the things fans don’t realize, this is a very young hitting team. Without Rizzo (who is the team MVP as far as I’m concerned) the Cubs aren’t this good. Too much inconsistency from the likes of Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Contreras and Almora who are still trying to figure it out.
I think he’s really putting himself in a lot of holes this year…..his first pitch swing rate is WAY up—over 52% and he has NOT HAD A 3-0 count all season. That’s incredible and he’s really put himself in bad, defensive spots. I also watch a lot of games and I feel he also has been trying to hit to right field a little to much. I’m not sure of the numbers, but would guess that he has a much larger number of fly outs to right, right-center, and pops to second than in the past.
That really is unbelievable that Bryant hasn’t had a 3-0 count all season.
Yet Rizzo hit .194 in May, .320 in June, .256 in July and you call out Bryant, Russell, Schwarber and Contreras and Almora for consistency. Overall, Bryant, Contreras, Almora and Baez are all out hitting Rizzo this season.
Will the arbiters consider that the league is in pace for an all – time high in home runs and adjust the salaries accordingly, or is that too complicated? Serious question if anyone has an idea.
This is a really good question. I don’t know the answer offhand but will pose it to Matt and Tim. My guess would be that the system will bake it in, but perhaps will be slow to react.
The important thing to bear in mind is that the vast majority of cases are settled. Teams and agents basically have accepted the system and aren’t all that interested in trying to push it by going to hearings and trying to make novel arguments. Perhaps players with particularly strong or weak cases that go beyond traditional numbers do have more or less leverage, though, based on the threat of their having a strong claim for more to a panel.
That’s why the Betances case last year is so interesting and notable. He tried to bust out of the parameters that have defined reliever salaries. If anyone had a claim for ignoring the save, it was him; he had massive innings and K tallies, and had plenty of holds along with some saves. But he lost — and ultimately probably gave up a significant amount of change to try that fight. (Not sure what the Yankees offered to settle at, but he filed at 5 mil and ended up with 3.)
Good comparison. I still think arbitrators aren’t eager to make “new law” when it comes looking at stats from a different angle. The market may have to lead there, with substantially higher salaries for set-up men. There’s still a bias in favor of closers. and maybe even an embedded “last licks” concept, with a presumption that the manager of the team behind throws the kitchen sink in in the 9th.
You’re right that the FA market could, in theory, help drive reliever arb salaries, but I’m not sure it will. You could certainly argue the evidence was already there, with guys like Miller, O’Day, and Cecil getting big, four-year deals — though of course, all were guaranteed half of what Chapman and Jansen got. I still think the real driver remains prior arb salaries, as the Betances decision shows.
And now that’s a clear market marker in and of itself. Definitely struck a big blow to future players trying to move the ball, as few if any non-closing relievers are going to match his stat sheet. Remember, the first-year starter number stood for a loooong time before it was finally broken.
Thanks for the response. If that is the arb market, it creates an interesting dilemma for teams as to how they use arb eligible bullpen arms–and I think that would be more acute for both smaller market teams, and any team that’s not playoff-competitive that year. It might be a lot cheaper to use an older “proven but busted” closer that you can get on a short, low money deal than taking your flame-throwing kid and trying him out in the closer role for the last half of the season.
Yep. Teams only push that concept so far — after all, there’s nothing that deflates fan interest like blown saves — but it’s one reason it often makes sense to sign a veteran “proven closer” type even if you don’t expect to compete. Think: 2016 Padres (Fernando Rodney). You likely save money in the long run since you don’t pay for saves in arbitration, hopefully deepen the pen in the near-term, and maybe even get a useful trade chip.
Jeff, thanks for the reply, and my apologies on the delayed response. Do you think this uncertainty in the arb market for position players (if there is in fact uncertainty among teams regarding arbiters’ understanding of this extreme run – scoring environment) would result in more or fewer hearings this off-season? On the one hand, it seems that there could be a larger gap to bridge in negotiations, but, on the other, this larger gap could actually incentivize them to come to an agreement to avoid the larger risks associated with going to a hearing.
Kevin Pillar’s arbitration salary will be interesting as well. He is a defense first player with barely competent hitting. But, dang, his defense is awesome. Should give a litmus to how valued defense is on future arbitration figures.
In a way, I guess, the glove will be reflected just b/c of playing time. Can’t see why he wouldn’t out-earn Billy Hamilton, who got $2.625MM in his first year. Pillar will have quite a few more PAs on his ledger (along with more homers and RBI).
I’d be surprise if even a few of these players actually make it to an arbitration panel. The recent trend is to settle before it gets that far.
Why do arbiters still give so much value to HR and RBI, exclusive of advanced stats? Is that why Jeff didn’t cite any such metrics?