Thanks to Justin Verlander’s age (34), sizable contract and full no-trade clause, the odds of the Tigers dealing the longtime ace this summer already appear low. Here’s another wrinkle, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi: According to the collective bargaining agreement, Verlander will be able to add an opt-out clause to his contract if he agrees to waive his no-trade rights. An opt-out would give Verlander a chance to exit the remaining two years and $56MM on his contract after this season or the $28MM left on his deal at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign.
Teams have already been reluctant to part with premium prospects for Verlander, and the opt-out possibility could make a trade even less likely as a result. On the other hand, it might not be that detrimental, Morosi explains. In order to mitigate the risk of an acquiring team losing Verlander over the winter, the Tigers could agree to pay that club around $10MM per year over each of the next two seasons if he declines his opt-out, a source suggested to Morosi. That would give Verlander a chance to test drive a new team before making an opt-out decision and give that employer “financial protection from injury or underperformance,” Morosi writes.
Morosi specifically focuses on Houston as a possible landing spot for Verlander, though he notes that it’s unknown if the Asros and the Tigers have made progress in talks regarding the right-hander. Both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of FanRag have reported this week that there’s little to no hope for a Verlander swap between the clubs. Although, the Astros aren’t the only team capable of landing Verlander, who has already cleared revocable waivers. The Tigers are allowed to market him to anyone as a result, but again, there are major roadblocks in the way.
Amid the uncertainty, it’s worth pointing out that the flamethrowing Verlander has recovered from a so-so start to the season with a return to top-of-the-rotation form in recent weeks. Across 40 1/3 second-half innings, Verlander has logged a 2.01 ERA, amassed 44 strikeouts against 12 walks and held opposing hitters to an awful .177/.244/.310 line.
Good luck trading him even more now
you assume verlander would opt out of a $28mm per year contract. no team is going to pay him 30mm year.
That was my very first thought as well.
It was my 2nd thought. My 1st thought was this: he could be easier to trade now. Treat him as a pure rental. One you can afford if and only IF the Tigers would want mid level prospect for a salary dump.
exactly my thoughts. no way would he get that kind of money ever again
But if he opted out and signed a 5 year 75 Mill. Contract it would be more guaranteed money.
Opt out of 2 years 56 million to sign 5 years 75 million, he would make 19 million more over last 3 years of new contract. That’s not smart at all.
Nobody is gonna give him 5 years. The most he gets is 3. He’s already started declining
His pitch location was bad early in the season and was kept in the game to long by Ausmus.. Verlander has not lost anything. Average fast ball over 95 mph. Last 6 starts 2.01 ERA yeah he has lost it. People saying he has lost it really havent watched him pitch. Pitchers that lose it lose their velocity. Enough of these comments about Verlander has lost it.
Given this year’s and last year’s performance, I could see him getting at most 4 years, albeit with a much lower AAV.
A three year deal would be the most likely if were a free agent at the end of the season.
They will pay him 3 years 66…
He’d be foolish to opt out. I doubt he’d get anything close to 28 mil on the open market.
It’s not the AAV that matters. He can get more than a 56 mill guarantee on the open market because he can command more than 2 years. Safer o do that now than wait 2 years before signing again
Please stop using the term “guaranteed”when talking MLB contracts…
Why on Gods green earth would Verlander opt out of that contract? He would be crazy.
He could get a bigger guarantee somewhere else, choose where he plays, go to an actual contender, etc. Theres lots of reasons for him to opt out.
You’d have to think the team that absorbs Verlanders 2/56 would be a contender.
If he didn’t want to stay where he was teaded
Seems crazy to opt out of 56 million but you have to figure he would get at least 4 years 80 guaranteed if he opted out. And 80> 56
80 is not be greater than 56 in this instance. You are under the false assumption that Verlander will make exactly zero dollars after the end of his current deal. Factoring your plan, he would only have to sign a 2/24 MM deal to break even and he would definitely make more than that on the open market.
I don’t know how someone could just if that 4/80 is better than 2 at 56. CC sabathia is going to get a 2/24 this offseason easily, probably more money. Even if JV declines to that level he will easily get a 2/30 at that point. 4yrs and north of 90mil he might have something to talk about.
Upton might opt out. He’d likely get similar years and dollars, but join a contending, rather than a declining club.
If the Tigers are willing to eat $16 million of his contract, I could see a team ….like the Yankees making a deal that gets them a front line pitcher for the next 2 years at $20 mil/yr with the $22 million vesting option in the 3rd year….whether or not he has an opt clause is likely irrelevant.
Yankees have already been reluctant to add payroll this year. They had the Jaime Garcia deal where the twins ate all money and they didn’t get Bruce because they didn’t want to take on more money. I doubt they’d want 20 million more
If the Yankees were to get Verlander let’s say within the next week, they would be responsible for the remainder of this year for about $6 million. Sabathia comes off payroll at end of this year, as does A-Rod, Holliday, Garcia and other FA’s to the tune of about $90 million. total……and the list of available FA starting pitchers coming up this off season isn’t great. That said, adding $20 million to the Yankees payroll for the next 2 years for Verlander is very reasonable….with plenty of room to sign other players in the off season.
You all are missing a very important point. He has made over 200 million in his career and now he is looking to make HOF. He wants/needs a ring. He could opt out and still make 20 million + incentives. At this point, money is NOT his main objective.
His fiancee is also earning a lot of money. But still, he is fighting for money, you can’t deny that. I believe in the theory that you can’t have too much money. There are stuff like saving some money for your future generations, charity, helping your friends and other things. It’s not because they are greedy, they have enough money for themselves. But because Justin is already rich, he is more likely to consider stuff like contending team, good atmosfere more than other players.
Nobody needs a WS ring. Does it help with HOF? Yeah probably, but he’s already been to two World Series, so it’s not like he’s never pitched in October.
It’s true that he’s made a lot of money, but no one here truly knows his priorities unless he specifically says so.
Maybe he wants to be traded to a contender, maybe he wants to stay with Detroit his entire career, or maybe he’s only focused on the money.
Tired of people claiming they know what players are thinking
He already told us. In interviews he said he would love to stay in Detroit his whole career, but he knows that’s rare in today’s game. He said if the team felt they could better themselves by trading him. he would be open minded about it. He said it was a win/win situation for him because he didn’t have to go anywhere he didn’t want to go to. He also said he feels too old to go through a complete tear down and would prefer to pitch in meaningful games, particularly play off games.
So what you are saying is, he said all the politically correct things, covered all his bases, and told us absolutely nothing.
This is helpful reporting by JPM. Higher barrier to any trade.. Acquiring team less likely to surrender valuable assets because JV might only stay if hurt/ineffective.
Same reason SF would have had trouble trading Cueto at deadline even if uninjured.
Tigers reluctant to trade the face of the franchise, especially for modest prospect return, for PR reasons. Would look to fans like a salary dump. He’s still the best they have. He’s the best they’ve ever had, going back to 1901.
Tiger fans who want to keep JV in the English D should be happy. When he dominates he’s worth his salary. He may dominate a few years more. He’s a dedicated hard worker who has never embarrassed the organization. Tigers are right to ask for a lot for him. With opt out it’s less likely any other team will take the chance.
some good points, plus, he still moves the turnstiles in Detroit. Unless Chris Ilitch orders a salary dump, no reason to accept a meager return for a guy who has lead your team for over a decade.
No way Verlander is going to opt out of $56M for two years. He would not get half of that on the open market at this stage of his career. He is better off financially staying put for now and dictating what teams he is willing to accept a trade. He will be 36 when his contract runs out at t he end of 2019 and probably could still latch onto a team contending then (for a lot less money mind you) if he has not been traded to a World Series winner by then.
Let me remind you, Jordon Zimmerman recently signed a contract that pays him $25 million three more years through age 34. Cueto signed a deal recently that pays him $22 million for 5 more years through age 36. No way Verlander would gets a 2 year $14 million dollar deal.
People keep acting like$28million is the price of an elite pitcher. No, it’s much more than that. The risk of injury or underperformance is included in the $28 million. Price is getting over $31 million for the next 5 years. Scherzer $37 million over the next 4 years and Kershaw $35 million over the next three years. Nobody that signed them expected them to pitch to a Cy Young level every year of the contract, let alone every 2 month period. If that was possible the price would be $50-$60 million per year. The risk involved is built in and some injury or short term underperformance is expected.
Heard a comment by Buck Martinez last night during the Toronto/NY game. He noted after talking to someone in Houston that JV was only willing to accept a deal to NY or Chicago.
That makes a lot of sense to me.
Why would he want to go to the mets or white sox?
But he is not going to opt out!
He’s been a great pitcher!! He’s still pretty durn good, but contracts such as his is why teams should front loaded, high dollar contracts. Declining yearly salary would match aging and declining skills.
You see aging and declining skills where none exist. There is nothing about Verlander to indicate declining skills are imminent High dollar long term contracts seem to last through age 36 for good to great starting pitchers. That’s where in appears FO’s expect decline to start kicking in
Honestly, if I’m running a team this makes him more attractive. Verlander as a rental sounds a lot better than Verlander on that contract.
As I’ve been saying though, Avila should take what he can get for Verlander. He’s on the wrong end of 30 and if he can get out of that contract it would make a lot more sense for the rebuild. Especially considering Zimmerman is pretty much dead money.
Why? He’s only on a 2 year deal after the end of this year. Plus, the Tigers have been rumored to offer money in a deal.
You’re talking about Verlander like he’s Albert Pujols, who’s clearly on his last leg. Verlander is still very much a great player. He’s hit 101mph this year, had the highest average velocity since his MVP season, and just two days ago had a 1 hitter- where the only hit went off our 3rd basemen’s glove. Verlander is still very much elite.
How does giving Verlander away make the Tigers better?
A) I don’t think Verlander, based off of this year’s stats and his sizable contract should require an elite prospect or numerous top 100 prospects.
B) With the knowledge of the possible opt out that hurts the Tigers and only the Tigers. The team trading for Verlander should simply treat him like a rental.
A) You are not paying for this years stats. Or last years stats. Or April and May’s bad stats or June, July and August’s good stats. You would be paying for what you can reasonably expect he can do for you. He can provide an elite level of quality starts and a big game playoff pitcher who is not intimidated going head to head against anybody. Is that and his contract worth an elite prospect or numerous top 100 prospects? Only the acquiring teams can answer that. So far the answer is no.
B) Totally agree.
So what is the scenario that brings back premium prospects to the Tigers in exchange for Verlander? Until that there is no trade that is going to happen. Forget the money and salary dumps. How often and more clear does Al Avila need to make it? They are not going to surrender a box office draw and make their team markedly worse just to acquire some middling prospects and save $36 million.
Apparently no one is motivated this year to make it happen.
My scenario is that Verlander continues to pitch at an elite level for the rest of this year and next. The financial obligation lessens. Playoff “contenders” in 2018 have him for 1.5 regular seasons and 2 playoffs. A larger pool of playoff “hopeful” teams in 2019 have him for the regular season and playoffs.
There is no urgency to trade him There is no current urgent need to acquire him. I think that changes in another year or year and a half.
It would be surprising if he agreed to go anywhere but New York, Chicago, LA or Boston. Others need not apply.
He’s been elite for all of 6 starts dude. Prior to that, his ERA/FIP was over 4.00. You can discard that if you wish to but teams are rightly going to scrutinize his results.
In addition the point of the post was that he has a no-trade clause and inorder to have it waived he is given an opt out he can use this offseason and next. So let’s day he continues to pitch at an “elite’ level as you put and has a great playoff run. That’s great for the team that gets him. However, if you’ve paid the price in elite prospects and he opts out and signs elsewhere or demands an extension then you overpaid for a rental player. Bottom line.
@southbeachbully
I’m not so sure I agree with either point.
In your argument, you’re taking out 6 starts- 4 of which were after Verlander stated that he had “fixed” his mechanical flaw. However, if you want to cherry pick stats, then if you pick out the 3 games against the Indians, then he would be in the top 3 of the Cy Young race with an ERA under 3.00.
I doubt any team questions Verlander’s recent success. His velocity is the highest its been since his MVP season, hitting 101mph two starts ago. Last start he threw a 1-hitter through 8 innings. No team is doubting the success of a guy who’s going on the same type of runs he continuously had last year.
To your other point about the opt-out: I would find it highly unlikely that Verlander opts out if he is traded. He has to approve any trade anyways, so I doubt he changes his mind after a couple of months.
Additionally, I while he could potentially opt out, it wouldn’t make much sense to opt out of a contract where he’s making higher AAV than he could probably get otherwise. He might be able to get another year or two (at most) on his contract, but it would come at a lower AAV, and at a team that he might not like as much.
@donniebaseball
My comment on his WS history was in response to “MrPike” referring to him as a “big game” playoff pitcher. I can only go by what he has done at the highest and most intense moment and that’s the WS where he has failed on 3 occasions. Am I saying he’s a scrub because of that? Of course not. He is a legit #2 or #3 pitcher at this point and time and I would love to have him. However, once again, fans are overvaluing their star players. I’m looking at inconsistency. Why is it ok to point to what he’s done the last month and ignore what he did the other 3? Why is it ok to point towards “stat A” and ignore his enormous home/road splits?
Some commentors want to look at the positives and ignore the obvious blemishes. A good GM looks at it all and hedges his bet that, as a buyer, those blemishes effect his value. You trade for him HOPING to get the best of him but you gauge the risk accordingly and make an offer commensurate with the +/-. Factor in the possibility that if he is OUTSTANDING he might opt out and try for a multi-year deal, even if the annual average may be lower. If he can nab a 4/$100 then he might go after it. If he sucks then he won’t opt out and you’re stuck paying him the rest of his deal.
If I’m a GM, I’m interested, but I wouldn’t give up a Torres, Adams nor Frazier caliber of player. Maybe a Florial and a couple of other unranked (top 100-150) guys at positions where there’s organizational depth. For the Yanks that would be guys like Jake Cave, Mike Ford, Tyler Austin, Thairo Estrada or maybe even Nick Solak who I like a lot but is blocked.
People who want Verlander moved to slash salary assume the “saved money” will be used to sign FA and upgrade the team. That is not what Detroit is going to do and has been saying so since last Winter. They are going to build a younger,more cost controlled, ballclub (on the fly) with no timeline as to how long it will take. They are interested in players and prospects to upgrade their roster. GM Avila said there are no orders to slash salary and will never be.
Verlander is an Ace that does not need to be upgraded. In 2017, he has had 2 bad starts,15QS,(3 outs shy of 2 more QS) out of 24. You take away those two bad starts and his ERA goes from 3.97 to 3.14 with a WHIP of 1.283. You read the lockdown numbers included in the article from the second half.
Anybody who wants him is going to get a bulldog who is a proven performer in the post season. For that you will need to pay the salary for his numbers and pay in prospects for the opportunity to have him help win a World Series. Avila does not have to budge from his current stance. The Tigers will be very content having JV pitch in Detroit the next 2 years .
I can’t see him agreeing to a trade, only to opt out after the deal. He would be more likely to force his 2020 vesting option for $22MM to be picked up as the price of dropping his no-trade.
6 innings or less or 3 runs with less than 8 IP or 4 runs or more allowed isn’t elite and at $28 mil a year that’s exactly what you’re paying for….elite. He has not beenan elite player throughout the season at this point and time..
His road ERA is 5.05 with a 4.27 FIP.
As far as postseason, he’s 0-3 in the WS. He has redeemed himself in the ALCS in 2011 and 2013 and it makes his numbers look “pretty” but let’s stop acting like he’s the post-season stud that you can count on in crunch time. They Tigers won the WS DESPITE his 0-3 record, 12 ER in 15 IP and his 7..20 ERA.
Would most teams want him? Yes. Can most teams afford him? No. Is he worth an elite level package….h-e-l-l no.
No team should give up a top 25 prospect or 3 or more top 100 guys. They should give up even less if Verlander doesn’t decline his opt out.
The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.
Looks to me like you are cherry picking stats. Sure, Verlander had a 7.20 ERA over only 3 games in the World Series, but he also has a 3.39 ERA in total for the Postseason.
The amount of prospects Verlander would return depends on the money the Tigers eat, but let’s not pretend Verlander isn’t an excellent pitcher.
He is tied for 9th in quality starts this year out of 150 major league starters. He is one behind Darvis and Archer and only two behind Fulmer, Cole and Kershaw. Three behind Scherzer. He didn’t accomplish that in his last six starts,
You are using averages over an extremely small sample size of 18. Two awful starts against Cleveland where it was suspected he was tipping his pitches skew the results.
I agreed with you on your second point. I said “Totally agree”. Read it again.
Keep in mind, Tim Beckham and Jurickson Profar have both been top 25. Also, I have not heard that Detroit was demanding a top 25, or 3 top 100. I do know that JV has cleared waiver. Who are those other top pitchers that are tradeable? The Tigers only need one contender to need another starter, and the conversation changes. Isn’t Sabathia having knee problems?