With the playoff picture largely taking shape and the majority of clubs around the league eliminated (or virtually eliminated) from postseason play, a number of teams and fans are looking to the offseason and the 2018 campaign and envisioning how best to augment their 2018 rosters.
The 2017-18 free agent class has a stronger group of starting pitching than the 2016-17 class (though that was a low bar to clear), and while there are a limitless factors that go into evaluating pitchers and determining their worth, there are plenty of surface-level indicators that can be helpful in identifying potential upgrades. For the purposes of this post, I’ve used Fangraphs’ customizable leaderboards to make a list of all of the starters likely to hit the open market this winter (excluding those with no-brainer club options like Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner as well as players that’ll obviously forgo opt-out clauses such as Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy). It’s not yet a given that Masahiro Tanaka will opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM on his contract, but given his strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (leading to a 3.61 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA), I’ve included him on these lists as well.
Though there are dozens of ways to evaluate, here’s a look at the top arms on the market (min. 20 innings as a starter) in terms of velocity, missing bats, limiting walks and inducing favorable contact. (And thanks to the folks over at Fangraphs for being an always invaluable source of info.)
Hardest Throwers (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 92.4 mph
- Tyler Chatwood*: 94.6 mph average fastball
- Yu Darvish: 94.2 mph
- Andrew Cashner: 93.3 mph
- Francisco Liriano*: 92.6 mph
- Yovani Gallardo: 92.3 mph
- Masahiro Tanaka: 92.2 mph
- Jake Arrieta: 92.1 mph
- Matt Garza**: 91.9 mph
- Jesse Chavez/Lance Lynn: 91.8 mph
- Alex Cobb: 91.7 mph
*Bullpen work for Chatwood and Liriano was not included.
**The Brewers hold a $5MM club option over Garza, which is a modest price even considering his recent struggles. It’s certainly possible that his option is exercised, which would push Jhoulys Chacin (91.4 mph) up a spot.
Top Strikeout Arms (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 20.6 K%, 7.96 K/9
- Yu Darvish: 27.0 K%, 10.02 K/9
- Masahiro Tanaka: 24.6 K%, 9.40 K/9
- Trevor Cahill*: 24.3 K%, 9.75 K/9
- Jake Arrieta: 23.0 K%, 8.66 K/9
- Doug Fister: 21.8 K%, 8.47 K/9
- Anibal Sanchez: 21.4 K%, 8.59 K/9
- John Lackey: 20.6 K%, 7.97 K/9
- Ubaldo Jimenez: 20.5 K%, 8.50 K/9
- Jhoulys Chacin: 19.9 K%, 7.59 K/9
- Francisco Liriano*: 19.7 K%, 8.06 K/9
*Bullpen work from Cahill and Liriano following their respective trades to the Padres and Astros was not included.
Fewest Walks (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 8.1 BB%, 3.13 BB/9
- Anibal Sanchez: 5.2 BB%, 2.09 BB/9
- Bartolo Colon: 5.5 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Masahiro Tanaka: 5.6 BB%, 2.15 BB/9
- Alex Cobb: 5.9 BB%, 2.21 BB/9
- Jeremy Hellickson: 6.8 BB%, 2.58 BB/9
- John Lackey: 7.2 BB%, 2.80 BB/9
- Jason Vargas: 7.4 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
- Scott Feldman: 7.4 BB%, 2.83 BB/9
- Ricky Nolasco: 7.6 BB%, 2.95 BB/9
- Jake Arrieta: 7.8 BB%, 2.94 BB/9
Best Ground-Ball Rates (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 44.0 percent
- Tyler Chatwood: 57.1 percent
- Trevor Cahill: 55.4 percent
- Jaime Garcia: 54.8 percent
- Doug Fister: 51.8 percent
- CC Sabathia: 51.2 percent
- Wade Miley: 50.9 percent
- Masahiro Tanaka: 49.2 percent
- Jhoulys Chacin: 49.0 percent
- Andrew Cashner: 48.5 percent
- Alex Cobb: 47.8 percent
Least Hard Contact (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 32.3 percent
- CC Sabathia: 27.3 percent
- Jhoulys Chacin: 28.3 percent
- Jake Arrieta: 28.9 percent
- Trevor Cahill**: 29.0 percent
- Andrew Cashner: 29.0 percent
- Lance Lynn: 29.1 percent
- Tyler Chatwood: 29.5 percent
- Francisco Liriano**: 30.1 percent
- Jaime Garcia: 30.5 percent
- Masahiro Tanaka: 31.3 percent
*Bullpen work from Cahill and Liriano following their respective trades to the Padres and Astros was not included.
Obviously, this is a high-level look at the starting pitching market, though it’s of some note that a few under-the-radar names continually surface in multiple categories. While pitchers like Chatwood and Chacin may not be Plan A for any club looking to bolster its rotation, they’ve somewhat quietly displayed secondary numbers that are generally more impressive than their ERA. Sanchez has had a dismal year with the Tigers thanks to a major penchant for surrendering home runs, but he’s posted a solid 16.2 K%-BB% (league average is 12.5 percent). Fister, meanwhile, has rediscovered his ability to miss bats and has his velocity back up to an average of 89.8 mph, so while his control isn’t as sharp as it once was, he could draw more interest than many would’ve initially thought when the Red Sox claimed him off release waivers from the Angels.
So what contender is going to sign Yu Darvish?
The Phillies bozo front office will be looking to sign some of the other crap to extravagant one year deals they can deal away…….or will they finally be called out on that and made to admit – in the Orwellian style of course – that they set $56+ million on fire last winter?
For the ignorant, Orwellian style is report once and never mention again. Down the memory hole.See: Scott Rolen Press Conference to reject Phillies contract and denounce John Middleton for “No Commitment to Win”
you mean Scott Rolen bailed right before the Phillies spent a ton of money on David Bell, Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu? Okay.
The Phillies spent 56M for stopgag veterans, like every single rebuild team has done.
Signing Darvish would be foolish for the Phillies anyways
“The Phillies spent 56M “”
To see what $56 million going up in flames looks like.
The Red Sox spent $63 million on Yoan Moncada and, well, you know the rest.
and their 56M investment resulted in 4 of their top 30 prospects.
I don’t get your point of bringing up Moncada considering his K rate is going to stop him from being a star level player anyways.
LOL
“resulted in 4 of their top 30 prospects”
Without looking they are?
None of the four could sniff the bottom of a Top 300 list in MLB.
Garbage.
Probably not good enough to get a full season in with the Long Island Ducks.
For $56 million.
The Phillies actually spent $70 million on stopgap veterans, all of whom have been traded or released. The Reds spent $8 million. The Padres spent $10 million. It certainly wasn’t necessary to pay $30 million for Hellickson and Buchholz when the Padres got Chacin, Weaver, Richard, and Cahill for $7 million total.
The phillies will most likely sign Alex Cobb
Cubs will sign Cobb. He’s been on their radar in trade talks for a while.
You are bringing up a situation on a specific player that happened 15 years ago that I am completely unclear of how it relates to the original post. The 2002 Phillies were a bit lost but happily found their way and into the playoffs a few years later. This group took a while to figure it out, but started the rebuild a few years ago. Signing big name players to huge contracts does not work for rebuilding teams. The process takes patience which I guess many fans just don’t have. Keep bringing up big words like “Orwellian” to somehow feign intelligence in your response…but for us ignorant people…. we know it’s bullshit.
“The 2002 Phillies were a bit lost but happily found their way and into the playoffs a few years later. ”
Five years later.
Should have been in the playoffs in 2004 and onward but refusal to pay pitchers left them sitting out until 2007. Then Pat Gillick dealt Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for…..nothing.
The Phillies should have signed Randy Johnson to join Curt Schilling in Philly along with A-Rod and Manny Ramirez. The Phillies had the money for that but John Middleton was more interested in lying to the fans and scamming the taxpayers for a new ballpark.
What about Derek Holland?
Tyler Chatwood is an ideal buy low for a bad team. His numbers away from Coors are great
Chatwood and Arrieta will look good in Angels jerseys next season.
Need some durable arms but other needs will prevent us from signing both IMO
The Angels will have over 50 million available before they hit the luxury tax
True but Upton would take 1/2 of that alone. Assuming we forgo J-Up we still need to fill 2B/LF, maybe another C, and then some BP help. After signing those two we’d be lucky to have 20m left to spend.
Arrieta is a wacko; seems like he’d rather be in Duck Dynasty instead of staying healthy and preventing his velocity from collapsing. Money talks, but not sure how he would fit in liberal Southern California.
Haha. Arrieta is a health freak and the only reason you’re implying he’s a conservative southerner is because he has a beard. Come on.
WRONG. He’s as right-wing as they come. Don’t you remember his tweet after Trumpelstiltskin won the election?
That’s rich coming from the guy who insults the fine cities of Baltimore and Oakland..
I was told Cody bellinger might give pitching a shot next year. Most likely starting in a set up role for Jansen
Cool. I was told your ban hammer was coming in 3…2…1
Darvish to Yankees.
If it gets us his Japanese friend I’m in
*us
Outside of a small handful of proven commodities, this is a pretty scary bunch. I’d hate to be a team like BAL who needs multiple SPs who are better than the departing Miley, Jimenez, and Hellickson. Can’t say there are many clear upgrades available in their price range.
Free agency basically doesn’t exist in MLB.
Instead of a market you have a dustbin full of relics no one wants and the more a team has to sign the worse they are as an organization.
If Harper and Machado reach the market it will be the first time two such talents have done so since 2000 when A-Rod and Manny Ramirez hit the market together.
Marvin Miller rolls in his grave.
Do you think to yourself, “what is the worst post I can slap on the comment section today” You make a simple comment about free agency hard to read.
Looks like I melted a couple of snowflakes.
Lol. The way you describe things just makes me cringe. “Dustbin full of relics no one wants.” Who the hell says that kind of stuff? It’s not offensive it’s just stupid.
It’s pretty typical. Last years was 10x worse. ERA’s are up all around baseball, it could be worse.
Nice job Steve. Beautiful work!
forgot to sign it: love mom
Trevor Cahill was traded from the Padres to the Royals. It says there that “bullpen work after traded TO Royals was not counted” or something like that
I mean to Padres oops
Yanks will make a run at Ohtani, and either Darvish or Cobb.. I think Tanaka ends up with the Dodgers.
I think Darvish and Otani could market themselves as a pair, giving certain teams an advantage. Darvish is the equivalent of a movie star in Japan and is all about endorsements, so if it’s not a MAJOR media market…no chance to sign him.
If thats the case its the Dodgers , Yankees or Red Sox. Thats going to be almost 400 million in commitments once Otani gets his real contract
Here is every pitcher mentioned on any of those lists ranked by xwOBA (.320 is league average):
1 Yu Darvish 0.291
2 Jake Arrieta 0.296
3 Jhoulys Chacin 0.305
4 Lance Lynn 0.308
5 Doug Fister 0.310
6 CC Sabathia 0.311
7 Trevor Cahill 0.313
8 Masahiro Tanaka 0.316
9 Jaime Garcia 0.319
10 Alex Cobb 0.320
11 Jason Vargas 0.320
12 Tyler Chatwood 0.325
13 Anibal Sanchez 0.327
14 Andrew Cashner 0.327
15 John Lackey 0.336
16 Scott Feldman 0.339
17 Francisco Liriano 0.339
18 Jeremy Hellickson 0.343
19 Bartolo Colon 0.348
20 Ubaldo Jimenez 0.351
21 Wade Miley 0.356
22 Ricky Nolasco 765 0.357
Chacin might end up being the best value SP this offseason.
Fangraph is just making stats up now. “leauge leaders in xwFipwar-ztur
It’s not from FG. Just because you don’t understand a statistic does not make it “made up”.
Your making up stats at this point. No one cares about xwOBA and im willing to say even some front offices dont even care about that. Enough is enough with these super deep analysis. Watch the games follow the normal stats and you will know who is good
I can unequivocally say that you are wrong in suggesting that front offices don’t care about things like xwOBA. Front offices are actively hiring people to come in and create their own proprietary metrics that accomplish similar things to xwOBA.
You’re fighting a losing battle if you continue to view the advent of newer metrics as a fad. While you don’t have to choose to follow them or even try to understand them, they’re not going anywhere, and front offices absolutely, definitively care about them, as do agencies as they try to craft more sophisticated means of pitching their players to teams.
One of the problems with the statistical analysis crowd is many fall in love with certain stats and think they are the end-all-be-all to determine who is a better player. WAR is a perfect example of that.
And many fans misinterpret the whole point of front offices using statistical analysis. It’s not to determine who is better. It’s to determine who is undervalued. If a team is looking at two guys, one of which wants $18M per and the other will sign for $10M per, advanced metrics might show that the $18M guy is better, but the $10M guy is close behind. The team then uses advanced metrics to determine if that extra $8M is a sounder investment on the better player or is more useful spent elsewhere.
….truly outstanding post….it’s all about relative value….and not only being able to cite the stat, but understanding how the stat came to be, vis a vis the player…..excellent job….
That’s one stat in his favor but he’s been tuned up big time out of petco. Most guys do better at home but you really can’t overlook the fact that he’s been so bad outside of petco park. His ERA is a good 5 runs higher when not pitching at home. That makes me nervous.