As part of our ongoing MLBTR Mailbag series, we’ve decided to begin branching off frequent topics of interest and expanding upon them at greater length than we’d normally spend in one post that answers four to six separate questions. This will be the first of several such posts to follow in the new format, and you can submit questions for consideration here via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.
Why would the Mets not non-tender Matt Harvey? Are 7.00-ERA pitchers with upside really that hard to find? Or is there an emotional/attachment thing going on? — Josh M.
Josh isn’t the only person with this sentiment — especially based on the comments in the wake of GM Sandy Alderson’s suggestion that the Mets will indeed tender a contract to Harvey this winter.
The frustration that Mets fans feel with the performance of the former “Dark Knight” and Harvey’s own frustration (which he’s voiced on multiple occasions) are understandable. To borrow from Harvey’s own blunt self-evaluation, he’s been “terrible all the way around” in 2017 — his first season back from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer. That operation was the second major surgery in Harvey’s career, as he also had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 campaign.
The attrition rate following TOS surgery seems to be greater than after Tommy John surgery, and Harvey is one of the only pitchers in recent memory to have both operations in such close proximity. Viewed through that lens, this season’s 6.60 ERA through 88 2/3 innings perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprising. Harvey has been working with diminished velocity (though it’s been trending up lately) and has posted career-worst K/9 (6.5) and BB/9 (4.5) marks while averaging 2.03 HR/9. It has not, to put it mildly, been a very good season.
That said, it’s been just two years since Harvey came back from TJS to throw 189 1/3 innings in the regular season with a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Harvey further rose to the occasion with 26 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball in the postseason (though Mets fans will forever debate Terry Collins’ decision to leave him in for the ninth inning of a Game 5 against the Royals). Simply put, from 2012-15, Harvey was one of the best young pitchers on the planet. Even his 2016 season, which ended with a disappointing 4.86 ERA and his eventual TOS procedure, featured solid K/BB numbers and a 3.47 FIP.
To the greater point here, it is indeed possible to find passable arms at bargain one-year rates in free agency. However, Harvey is in for at best a modest raise on this season’s $5.125MM salary. Looking back over the past few offseasons, the free agent starters that have signed one-year deals worth less than $6MM include: Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum (mid-season in 2016), Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Aaron Harang. Weaver was 34 when he signed his deal (and retired partway through the 2017 season). One could argue that Lincecum or perhaps Beachy carried significant upside, but both were returning from serious injuries, were older than Harvey and were further removed from success than Harvey is now.
Last offseason, Derek Holland signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the White Sox after throwing a combined 203 innings from 2013-16. With all due respect to Holland, his upside isn’t on par with that of Harvey. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross also signed for one year and $6MM after undergoing his own TOS surgery. If Ross was able to find $6MM on the heels of a season he spent entirely on the DL — his lone appearance in 2016 came on Opening Day — that should be an indication that paying a younger Harvey at a roughly comparable rate isn’t exactly an overpay by market standards.
Moreover, if the 2017 season proved anything, it’s that the Mets need to stockpile as many reasonably priced arms and rotation depth options as possible. With injuries to Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman impacting the staff at various points throughout the season, it doesn’t seem prudent to be cutting ties with a fairly inexpensive young arm. If anything, the Mets will probably aim to bring in some low-cost veterans on minor league deals that could be stashed at Triple-A and emerge as big league options in 2018 should their injury issues persist.
For a team that already lost a vast portion of their payroll due to trades, and a team that doesn’t look very contenderish.. unless.. well.. the pitchers get healthy, it’s worth a shot.
No reason to nontender him unless you firmly believe there is a different player out there that that money can go to, that will propel you to contending. My take… no ones there. Tender him.
Matt Harvey is coming off a terrible season and only has a year before free agency. So the Mets can’t hope he straightens himself out a little next year and then gets better in 2019 or 2020. If he pitches well or poorly he’s a free agent.
Is there a reason to expect Harvey to pitch well? Tim Lincecum and John Danks went from top starters to bums suddenly in their 20s. Harvey could be the same.
The Mets are 67-88. They might expect to contend in 2018. If they do and have $6 million, is Harvey the best player to invest in? If they don’t, it seems really stupid since they can’t count on getting anything for him in a trade. The Mets have many of their young players arbitration eligible. They might not have much left.
Name three other players you could get with a 1 year $6 million deal, and explain how they’d have a larger impact than Harvey. If you can’t, then the Mets should tender him a contract.
First, you’re assuming the Mets have $6 million available. They have a lot of arbitration eligible players. They might not. Second, you’re assuming that the Mets will be contenders. If they’re not they don’t have a lot of use for Harvey. Third, you’re assuming Harvey is any good. He was 145th in fWAR out of 148 starting pitchers with 80 or more innings pitched. If that’s all you can get from Harvey, then almost every pitcher is better.
The Mets have Syndergaard, Matz, deGrom, Wheeler, Gsellman, and Lugo. Some struggled as much as Harvey but they all have at least two years of team control left. If the Mets were 88-67 this year it might make sense to try Harvey as the 5th starter. But they’re not and may struggle next year. They should play players who might be part of a contender in 2019 and 2020.
Contending or not, the Mets still have to sell tickets. How many more people do you think have Harvey jerseys rather than some AAAA pitcher? Results might still be the same, but the entertainment value for the casual fan is in Harvey’s favor. Also, what if he turns it around? Crazier things have happened.
I don’t think the Mets see Wheeler, Gsellman, and Lugo as AAAA pitchers since they’re all fairly young with potential. I don’t know if people still buy Harvey jerseys, although I can’t see why they would. Fans don’t usually buy jerseys of awful players. Attendance isn’t higher when he pitchers. So it doesn’t appear that the casual fan is interested in him any more.
What if he turns it around can be asked of any number of players who were once good and now aren’t.. Do we have reason to believe he will? And if he does, and the Mets are bad again, he takes that good season to some other team.
It’s possible that the Mets could trade him if he pitches well. The return on Walker, Duda, Granderson, and Bruce was underwhelming. The upside may be another Ryder Ryan.
Good point LA…only the Mets jersey sales will be fine next year as their new centerfielder has a lock to top 10 jersey sales. Fans love Tim Tebow and Jeff has Brooklyn T’s design a new hip line called “Flushing Freaks” with Tebow’s name and number on the back.
Shhhh…it’s top secret;)
It’s a smart idea (in general, not because Alderson is a great GM) to tender a contract then use him for trade bait.
No chance that happens before the trade deadline in 2018. Why would the Mets trade him at the bottom of his trade value? Much better to let things play out. If he gets back to form, and the team stinks, then he will bring a big haul at the deadline. If he stinks then cut bait and move on.
“then use him for trade bait””
When are you calling in to WFAN with that idea?
First thing tomorrow
Right now, his value is way down, and if they tried to trade him now, they’d be lucky to get more than a mediocre prospect or two out of him.
Harvey went from one if the biggest prizes in the big 2018 free agent class to being lucky to get more than a 1 year deal
I suppose this is no different from the Brewers almost certainly picking up Matt Garza’s option after how bad he’s been.
They are not picking up his optinion r u joking? Any minor league can come in and be an upgrade as far as performance and salary goes. I hate to be blunt but the guy sucks.
I agree that Garza is terrible, and I’d be happy if I never saw him in a Brewers uniform again, but apparently $5 million a year for a veteran innings eater is considered a bargain nowadays.
For the amount it will cost them, it’s worth adding him as a depth piece if nothing else.
Said it before. I’ll say it again. They should have traded him after his little temper tantrum cost them game 5 of the 2015 World Series.
That wasn’t his fault–he was laying himself out for the team after it forced him to BLOW BY the innings limit recommended by his doctors after surgery.
Look at leadership for the source of the problem. Stop keeping your head in the sand about an organization with an over-the-hill GM and an out-of-touch manager. They have been like Abbott and Costello these past several years.
Had they not been able to reap the seeds of Omar Manaya’s talent acquisition and development they would not have lasted so long.
This is an interesting article and all Steve, but today we’re here to talk about Qualcomm.
Cut off the comments, this one wins the thread!
If you don’t know what it’s referring to look it up.
I don’t agree with my fellow mets fans, they are always quick to flip on a player. Harvey was our one bright light during multiple disaster seasons. He goes under the knife for TJ, comes back and goes over his innings limit to help take the Mets to the World Series. Has some not so good starts, find out he needs TOS. He comes back from a surgery that doesnt have much of a track record in terms of coming back from it and performing at an elite level. Now fans want to turn their backs on a guy that was once an ace on this staff; his ace caliber stuff might be gone or diminishing, however we need to tender him a contract. His struggles this year could easily be because of TOS.
It’s annoying how many fans are very quick to call for a pitcher’s release because of one lousy season. If Corey Kluber pitched to a 7 ERA next year, I’d still want him to be an Indian for life. Glad there’s at least one other fan that gets it.
Why? Sports is a business. Why would you want someone who is terrible taking up a roster spot and money? This is a hokey and foolish idea.
I hope that he is granted a trade after Scott Boras holds cheap Wilpon’s hostage; and then regains his form. He can sign for cheap and then sign with a major publisher to write a tell all book about the inside workings of the Flushing Follies. There’s lots of material deep inside this story.
Move him to the pen.
He has that bulldog mentality.
We can fix the broken psyche
But the arm is not going to hold up
As a starter.
WRONG. He has a playboy mentality and is interested in dating supermodels and being on TV or in the papers; he’s the MLB version of Matt Leinart. I hope they decline his option and the only teams interested in him are cultural/nightlife voids like Baltimore or Oakland.
Man, the doctor who solves TOS surgery will hopefully have the surgery named after the first pitcher he actually helps. That would only be fitting. But so far this seems like something medicine can’t fix.
Mets needs to sign Derek Holland
Hey Tex–Derek ain’t signing with a losing team like the Mets. He won’t even have to turn them down as they won’t have the $$ to be in the conversation.
Good luck with stashing starting pitchers in the minors. If all you can hope for is a minor league contract, you sign with a contender, or a team lacking young options. The Mets are neither.
Free agent year. Give him the offer and hope he pitches for his next contract, whether it be the Mets or someone else. And if the Mets suck next year and he pitches well, you have a piece to trade.
There are some on this site that quantify their beliefs strictly from a fantasy league perception. What about Harvey pitching over his innings limit to help his team get to the playoffs? Is that worth anything? Does his credentials mean anything or can you get somebody else with his background for 6 mil? Maybe teams are gathering more info on TOS that we aren’t aware of and his risk/reward status changes? What will he get on the FA market? These are examples of real world decisions baseball execs have to make and not some fantasy league manager that is mad because some player didn’t produce for him this year.
Are you saying Notagain that the team oversized him as they embarrassed him into disregarding his surgeon’s recommendation and blew way past the limit?
Between Harvey and AJ Burnett, I’ve learned one thing over the past few years…
Grown men shouldn’t refer to themselves as “The Dark Knight” or “Batman” (to say nothing about having Jeff Locke as your boy ward “Robin”
This is behavior that should end somewhere between 8 and 15. AJ was almost 40 and still doing it.
and grown men probably should stop using other grown men’s names as their handle.
siq burn
TRUTH! That’s the MLBTR forum equivalent of Ice Cube’s “No Vaseline”.
Is that what my user name does? Or does it refer to a team?
Would you care to comment on grown men whose user names refer to teams, King?
So Josh, do the same rules apply to the team
Owner who is stuck in a time warp and stays in his room all day long drooling over Brooklyn Dodger memorabilia and baseball cards?
Well, Burnett’s “Batman” nickname got us a bat signal in Pittsburgh.
better mailbag topic: can Harvey sue the Mets for the way they disregarded doctor’s orders and basically forced him to pitch well past his recommended innings limit?
Harvey is done. If the Mets want to throw money at a guy for nostalgic reasons that is their decision. But let’s stop fantasizing about him ever being effective again. TOS is a career killer.