Cubs free agent Jake Arrieta figures to offer more “feast-or-famine probability” than any other free agent on the market, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com posits. Arrieta has exhibited a number of troubling trends since his dominant Cy Young campaign back in 2015. Kramer points out that the right-hander’s rate of hard contact allowed was once among the the lowest in baseball, but has since fallen to the middle of the pack. Arrieta has also lost 3 MPH on his fastball from 2015 to 2017; pitchers in their thirties typically don’t regain that velocity. Kramer digs even deeper, looking at Arrieta’s “topped ball” rate (balls hit directly into the ground), noting that his rate in this category has also dropped. These factors in tandem create a confusing and concerning picture when looking at the value Arrieta could provide over the next couple of years. It’s not all bad; Kramer also notes that the former Cy Young winner hasn’t lost his ability to put batters away on two-strike pitches, and he’s still got an excellent pitch repertoire to go along with a delivery that provides deception. Teams exploring a deal with Arrieta will face an interesting dilemma in trying to project his future performance.
Other items from around MLB…
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has released his top five free agent bargains, as well as his top five free agent landmines. Royals free agent Eric Hosmer tops the list of players Cameron would avoid at the prices they’re likely to command. He points out that Hosmer’s 2017 was partially driven by his .351 BABIP, which the first baseman is unlikely to repeat, and questions his defensive abilities as well. Interestingly, Cameron points out that Hosmer’s 120 wRC+ over the past three seasons is just two points ahead of Carlos Santana’s mark across that same span, and yet Hosmer is expected to more than double Santana’s earnings in free agency this winter. None of this is to say that Hosmer isn’t a great asset, but many in the industry think he’ll be paid like a potential franchise superstar, and his track record doesn’t necessarily provide a strong case for that level of commitment. Greg Holland, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Nunez and Andrew Cashner round out Cameron’s top five free agent landmines, while Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Hunter, Jarrod Dyson and Doug Fister comprise Cameron’s top five bargains. The pieces are full of great analysis and will give readers another interesting set of storylines to track this offseason.
- Mike Puma of the New York Post wonders whether the Mets would be best served to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, whom the club traded to the Brewers this past August. Though he spent a significant amount of time on the DL for the second straight season, his 2017 home run total (14) homers and OBP (.409) would be a welcome asset to a Mets club with a number of issues to tackle before opening day 2018. Puma also notes that the Mets are exploring some trade options at second base as well. Interestingly, he lists Jason Kipnis as a name he believes to be available, along with more obvious trade candidates in Ian Kinsler and Dee Gordon.
Whoever signs Arrieta is going to regret it pretty badly
At the same time the same can be said literally about every single major free agent. None are worth an investment.
Maybe Carlos Santana could be a good signing but cant think of anyone else
Chatwood could be worth the money he gets.
I think you guys have significantly different opinions on what a “major free agent” is if you’re using Tyler Chatwood as your point…
So true
I never said Chatwood was a major free agent.
I think the Sanata market is gonna pretty active. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get overpriced when alls said and done.
Yeah, especially when it comes to pitchers.
The truth is, anytime you offer a player over 30 a >5 year contract, you’re essentially buying out the remaining 3 years of his prime, and hoping they don’t make too big of a splat when they fall off a cliff midway through.
Agreed. Free agency has become a joke. With teams looking to get younger and more athletic, wouldnt be surprised if less and less teams stop investing in free agents and prefer going the trade route unless its a game changing player such as Harper, Trout, Stanton, Seager, Lindor, Corrrea type player.
If im a young player and my team offers me a good extension it would be wise to jump all over it.
Except Arrietta will already be 32 next year and having significantly declined for the second year in a row (i.e. seemingly out of his prime) and was worth only about 6 wins over the past two seasons combined. He is a 32 year old one-time all star and that one time didn’t even occur in the past couple of years.
There is no reason he should even sniff what Johnny Cueto got at two years younger with a better long term track record and a better two lead-in seasons. Main thing he has going for him is good body/health but even with that he didn’t reach 170 IP last season.
yeah I’m trying to think of recent Top big money getting free agents that have (thus far) been worth every penny and well. I struggle to come up with anyone not named Max Scherzer.
Depending on the contract honestly if it a 3 or 4 year thing I’d say it’s worth the risk to have a good veteran in your rotation
As a cubs fan… I have to agree. I give him maybe 2 years of decent performance before it all goes to hell.
As a Cubs fan, I’d still give him 4/100. Probably wouldn’t go to 5 years unless the AAV was significantly less.
Agreed wholeheartedly. I’m just glad it won’t be my team. You just know that Arrieta’s deal is going to be regretful before he even signs it a la Ellsbury.
It will be as bad a signing as Sandoval was
Ok bud.
You’re not giving Sandoval enough credit, he hit .245/.292/1 broken belt.
100% agree.
Comparing Hosmer and Santana is just stupid clickbait. If Hosmer signs a contract 2x Santana’s this off-season, it will be 100% because he’s 4 years younger, not at all because he’s better. The writers (on this site) know better than that. Hosmer’s gonna get about $20m AAV, and Santana about the same, give or take. But because you don’t have to calculate decline rates, or not as steep ones, for Hosmer, he gets more years. And $20m AAV these days is FAR from “paid like a franchise superstar.”
This isn’t rocket science.
$20M for a single season isn’t a supersear?
Not really these days, no.
Exactly. Just look at Jason Heywards contract. $23mm per year for 8 years. I wouldn’t use the word “star”, let alone superstar.
That one has me shaking my head.
It’s a terrible contract, but he’s still a defensive superstar. If the bat just went back to a .270 level, he’d be well worth the money.
I wouldn’t bank on it. Leads all qualifies in soft-contact rate over the past two years, .315 xwOba last season is right in line with his actual production. He controls the strike zone still, but his contact quality is terrible
The J Hey contract isnt even that bad compared to others. Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, A-Rod (both 10 year 250+mil. ) Maybe he earned the first but the second one he cheated twice as much for one and he was 33 when he got the 2nd one. It’s a damn shame bud Selig didn’t have the balls to ban him for life. He should have voided his remaining contract. Which was over 100mil for 4 years.
He wouldn’t have had the balls to do what Manfried did to John Coppella.
L. Cain gonna be a bargain? Very interesting and I️ also think Holland will probably follow up with another solid year
L. Cain a bargain? Interesting and I️ think holland will have another sold year in my opinion
Whoever signs Arrieta will solidify who their biggest douchebag is on their team.
Now that’s a constructive and helpful comment.
Perhaps not, but factual nonetheless.
Hillary still lost. 😀
Yes, she won by three million votes but the crux of your argument is technically correct.
Yeah because the Electoral College is a joke, as is Trump.
Hey, don’t talk that way about the guy that’s in the best physical shape of anybody that has ever touched a baseball.
You have to wonder when the first shoe will drop.
Here’s to it being sooner rather than later
Ohtani and Stanton beg to differ. I think we’re still a bit a ways from seeing the real action unfortunately.
Dilly dilly
Several of the marquee free agents (Arrieta, Hosmer, Moustakas, among others) indicates he will try to control the pacing of the FA signings. Boras likes to drag things out past Christmas, often past the beginning of the new year. He is known for brinksmanship in negotiations and floating stories of “mystery teams” negotiating in addition to those publicly known.
His playbook requires lengthy contact talks and waiting out the other players. If Frazier signs, then the remaining teams will have to overpay for Moustakas—that sort of thing.
Seriously. Been ridiculously boring but i sort of expected it given the crap free agents
I would take Dyson on a 2 year 10 mil contract. Has speed and good defense. Hosmer and Santana sign for no less than 25 mil avg. Pretty risky bet.
Santana is not getting $25 million a year
Nor is Hos! $20-$22.5 at the most for both…
Are you high?
I see Arrieta landing in either MIN or MIL because both teams have payroll flexibility and are arguably one solid SP away from taking the next step. The question here is will either team convince themselves he’s worth the overpayment in dollars and years, or will they wait out his market until later January when his contract terms are closer to reality?
Arrieta has pitched in the playoffs three seasons in a row. The Cubs have made it a habit of getting into the playoffs. Three straight years in the NLCS and people continue to underrate them.
Sorry. Responded to wrong comment….
Agreed. I can see the Mets getting involved. I think a team like the Dodgers or Astros could get involved at 3 years. But Arrieta has his ring and really only cares about getting paid. So a team like NYM or MIN will win out by offering a 4-5 year deal at about 90 million ( similar to Samardzija)
He’s getting more than 90 mil. At 5/90 there’d be at least 6 or 7 teams willing to pay that. It’s not like he’s been awful, he had a down first half, but came back and was dominant before hurting his hamstring. Then he shut down the Dodgers in the NLCS with one of his best starts all season. The guy can still pitch like an ace, and at 5/90 you’re saying he’s getting paid like a 3. That’s a bargain.
I actually think 5/90 is about what he’s worth, and the contract should be heavily front-loaded so he’s easier to flip once he’s become back of the rotation material and can barely crack 150 innings per season.
It really seems like he’s only got 2 more good seasons left in him.
Not every team is interested in sacrificing a first round pick plus shelling out 100+ million for a guy that is about to turn 32 and has pitched more like a #2-3 the past couple years. So yes, 5 years at 90 million is very realistic. He will prob get a bit more but anything over 100 is a terrible deal.
Also depends pn what Yu Darvish signs for. If Yu doesnt get a massive contract then no way in hell is Arrieta. Teams are smarter and more attentive to analytics than a few years ago.
The Mets function like a small to mid-market team, so I highly doubt they spend $90m on a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 and has seen his numbers dip. Ownership is hoping everyone bounces back…except Weight bc they want that insurance money.
Hosmer is probably currently the most overrated player in baseball.
I think it depends on who you’re talking to, actually. Casual fans most definitely overrate him, but I think a lot of analytically-inclined fans (myself included) tend to be a bit overcritical. Even if the defense is as bad as the metrics indicate, and I’m not sure, he’s still been a well above-average bat for 4 of his career 7 seasons, he’s young for a FA, hits the ball hard (albeit on the ground too often), and projects as a 3-win player next year. He’s good, just not any kind of superstar, but the prevailing opinions either seem to be that he’s either awesome or terrible
I find this to be the case more often than I’d like to admit. We seem to have a thing for harsh judgement on mainstream players while overhauling similar players who are more niche. Moustakas v Frazier is a good example.
Let’s try to use skill to evaluate a player and not their expected salary
Think that Gordon would make sense for the Mets. 2B’man, leadoff hitter with speed, and a contract they can easily afford.
Sadly we don’t have the prospects to pull this off.
Dave Cameron not writing favorably about a Royals player. Real shocker!
Everything he said was true though
If you don’t believe it, just ask him.
Arrieta pitched extra games in the playoffs 2 years in a row. And considering he was on the Cubs and Orioles, I’m sure that was the first time that even happened. It’s not crazy that he’s showing signs of fatigue. I think he will be fine.
His new team should delay his spring training/ramp-up though. That’s what I would do.
3 years in a row… Cubs made the playoffs in 2015, 2016, 2017.
Chatwood and Alex Cobb will be on the cubs imo , there is noway they resign and give arrieta that money
I like Chatwood and Chacin as good value picks .
I’d be good with that as cub fan. Lance Lynn would be ok as well
This might be a great year to sit it out when looking at the top 15 FAs. There’s definitely talent, but it’s going to pricey, and few players don’t have obvious blemishes. Arrieta could be one of the landmines–or he could just turn into a 2-3 WAR pitchers who is just overpaid.
Teams are starting to realize that free agents are the worst value in getting players. Smart teams are trying to lock up good players in their prime first, trading for players second and signing short term free agents third. Signing high price free agents rarely is worth it.
As an Indians fan, I don’t think it’s surprising that Kipnis could be available at all. Francona seems to prefer Jose Ramirez at second and that would leave Urshela or Yandy Diaz at third, so Kipnis would likely have to play the outfield if he stays, which isn’t ideal at this point (especially if they keep Brantley in left instead of moving him to first). They could also stand to move Kipnis’s contract to give them a little more wiggle room since they’re probably pretty close to payroll capacity already.
I’m not an Indians fan clearly but you think they’re moving Brantley to first? Is this something that’s openly been discussed?
It’s been discussed a lot by fans and writers but I think it’s also being considered by the team…the idea is that it would keep him healthier and allow for some freedom in constructing the outfield
Kipnis’ only viable position is 2B. He can field just fine in the OF, but he just doesn’t have the arm, and teams caught onto that quickly late last year. Trading Kipnis now frees up salary that can be allocated to other needs. He really is the odd man out on that team.
Whoever signs him, just be prepared to go down in the records book with having inked one of he worst contracts in MLB history. His decline is coming hard and fast. Signing a 32 year old pitcher (whose been on the decline, and velocity is also declining, the last two years) to a mega deal, is not a good idea. Might get 1.5 – 2 good years….the rest? Good luck with eating that salary.
I dont think any team goes more than 5 years. Dont think itll go down as worst in history because he has a decent year or two left in him. The last 2-3 years of that contract are going to be pretty bad.
Reminds me of James Shields or Matt Garza
Boras has a knack for getting years and money everyone says can’t happen. I like Jake at 4/100 but I think he gets more.
Just a note, Walker’s OBP was .362 not .409. The .409 mark was from his 40 or so games with Milwaukee.
I like Chatwood and Chacin as good value picks .
Theo won’t pay him….that says it all.
Epstein smells an albatross in Arrieta, and that’s why they’ve respectfully taken a pass.