Earlier this week, Mark Polishuk examined the potential trade market for Jose Abreu. Another White Sox player who’s likely to receive calls this offseason is right fielder Avisail Garcia, who is coming off a 4.2 fWAR season and is signed through 2019.
Prior to 2017, Fangraphs rated Garcia below replacement level for his career. But last offseason, the Venezuelan native shed some weight and got off to a hot start in April. He continued to crush the ball throughout the first half en route to his first All-Star selection. Although Garcia had a rough July, he finished the season strong, resulting in a .330/.380/.506 batting line. That performance was good for a 137 wRC+, which tied Justin Upton for the 22nd-best mark in all of baseball.
During a season’s end press conference, White Sox GM Rick Hahn admitted that the team is unlikely to win any time soon. “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn told reporters. This would make Garcia a prime candidate to move for young talent, especially coming off a career year.
The process of putting an approximate trade value on Garcia, however, is incredibly complicated. Unlike teammate Abreu, the outfielder doesn’t have a long track record of success, and it’s not certain he’ll be able to muster something resembling his 2017 production in future years.
One could point to a change in batted ball profile as an indicator that this past year’s success is sustainable. Garcia improved his hard contact and medium contact rates by small margins over his 2016 figures, in addition to increasing his fly ball rate by four percentage points. The most dramatic change was probably his pull rate; Garcia pulled the ball 25% more often this past season than he did the year before. All told, he ranked 53rd in baseball in hard contact rate (35.3%), and 36th in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH).
Of course, those improvements don’t entirely justify an 83-point jump in batting average on balls in play. His .392 BABIP led all of baseball by a large margin, topping second-place Charlie Blackmon’s figure by a 21-point margin. That number is likely to regress significantly, which makes it tough to buy Garcia a legitimate .300 hitter.
That being said, Garcia’s contract will certainly have some surplus value in the eyes of rival teams. He may not have the reputation necessary to bring back a truly elite minor-leaguer, but it’s not hard to imagine some team forking over a top-100 or even top-50 prospect in hopes that Garcia can be a 3-win player for them for each of the next two seasons. When looking at potential suitors, it’s probably best to examine those teams for whom he would provide an obvious upgrade even if he were to regress a bit.
The Blue Jays have the resources to swing a deal and a need in the outfield, but might prefer to find another left-handed option. It also might not make much sense to trade for Garcia when Anthony Alford will probably debut at some point in 2017.
The Rays could use a righty-hitting outfielder, and they have a number of prospects in a more appropriate range to headline a deal for Garcia. Making such a trade would be a more realistic alternative to spending money on a right-handed outfielder in free agency, as Tampa Bay obviously isn’t known for their ability to spend.
Although their outfield is fairly crowded already, the Indians saw right-handed-hitting Austin Jackson reach free agency this offseason. With questions surrounding the health of Brandon Guyer, the Tribe would probably be well-served to add another righty option to their outfield group. They won’t be inclined to give up Francisco Mejia or Triston McKenzie, but they do have a number of intriguing upside youngsters; they might be able to lure Garcia away from their division rivals with some combination of those players.
The Rockies seem like a really good match on paper; they’re in need of an outfielder who bats from the right side, and have prospects they could afford to give up if they believed in the new version of Garcia.
The Diamondbacks seem like the best match to me. They have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole to fill in the outfield, and they’re ready to push for contention again in 2018. With Pavin Smith and Jon Duplantier at least a full year away from contributing, Arizona could opt to trade one of them as a cheaper alternative to the nine-figure contract Martinez would require in order to return. Because he’s such a defensive liability, Martinez actually finished 2017 with a lower fWAR than Garcia, who played roughly average defense for Chicago. That’s obviously not to say that Garcia should be the more coveted player, but he’s definitely got his pros as an alternative.
Other options that make some level of sense include the Giants and Rangers. But the conundrum here is that it’s hard to predict exactly how teams will value Garcia, including the White Sox themselves. It’s not often that career sub-replacement outfielders suddenly become All-Stars, so it will be interesting to track rumors surrounding Avi this offseason and see what develops.
Eloy Jimenez should be ready mid-year 2018. If a good deal presents itself, Avi should be traded.
With Rutherford sliding, I’d keep Avi until they have 3 replacement outfielders. Tilson can’t stay healthy, Engel can’t hit; that leaves them with Robert and Jimenez. Sox have a world of depth at starting pitching, but not at too many other positions.
The Jays are better off with Alford in LF, Pillar in CF and Teoscar Hernandez in RF. That gives them three fast outfielders who have CF experience and excellent athleticism and the talent to be very good hitters with average to above average power.
I agree
Me too. It’s fine as it is. Depth might be good though, but sign some cheap swingers to give them some rest. I’d love to see a young, fast outfield. It’d be exciting for sure.
I’d like to see him have success without leading the league in BABIP before giving up value for him
As a White Sox fan I’d gladly trade off Avisail Garcia’s MLB leading BABIP and A.L. runner-up BA for an increase in power numbers. Any reasonable trade off still figures to aid a White Sox offense that will likely be subpar in 2018 while also helping to maintain or enhance Garcia’s trade value as the summer deadline approaches.
I like the idea of Avisail on the DBacks, depending on the asking price. Martinez isn’t coming back and I don’t trust Tomas to be healthy and productive for a full season.
I just don’t see Arizona wanting two Tomas clones. Look at Garcia’s previous production (ignore his outlier year), and ask yourself if it is enough of a difference from Tomas to give up something of value.
You say this year was an outlier, yet ignore the fact Avisial missed a ton of at-bats due to injury in previous years.
Yes Chisox but you are ignoring the .392 Babip which is way higher then he has ever had. You cannot count on that next year. So I would agree last year was somewhat of an outlier based on an unsustainable babip.
You cannot gauge a young player’s ceiling or floor by a few injury plagued seasons. He may not match performance from last year consistently, but his breakout season speaks to his capabilities as an everyday OF. He’s clearly worth a few decent prospects, which is what the Sox will get for him.
To be a good player, you have to turn the corner somewhere. I understand the drastic change in year to year, but if teams buy into his changed approach, he only has 2 years before he plays his way into a bigger contract. While Avi’s situation is risky, so are prospects. I think Arizona could benefit from this gamble immensely if they can take Pavin Smith off the table; him being their Goldy insurance if an extension is not in the cards.
He has a way better swing he will put up numbers again.
Del Boca Vista, he has a better swing, but that doesn’t mean he’ll put up the same numbers. That BABIP suggests that some of his success was based on luck. He might hit .290 this coming year with 20HR, which certainly is worthy of a starting OF on a lot of teams, but I don’t see him repeating last year.
Hyrax, I understand your point and his babip was very high and if I remember guys like Cabrera aren’t even that high usually so his numbers spiked. I’m simply saying that I think he has learned to use his body more efficiently and I think his swing and his approach have drastically changed in areas for the better. Obviously the league will adjust to those and it’s a never ending game and a day to day battle. I still believe he will put up quality ABs for whatever team he is on due to those.
Garcia matured a lot last year showing patience and much better pitch recognition. He’s a different player now. You can cite BABIP but I’ll go with my eyes.
I predict .290 plus going forward.
Well he had, by far, the highest babip in baseball last year. His other advanced stats were better then previous years but expect quite a bit of regression from him due to unrealistic and unsustainable babip.
You guys at MLBTR are doing a fantastic job filling in the time for this tumbleweed Off-season.
Anyone remember Delvin Young in 2010? If the Sox are shopping Garcia, THEY do.
Delvin Yong was a 1.3 war player that year. avi was 4.2 so not quite the same.
Delmon?
His production was obviously fueled by the insane BABIP that will drop by 50+ points in 2018, but his xwOBA was .353 and suggests he made legitimate improvements. If he continues to elevate the ball, I see no reason he can’t continue to be a ~3 win LFer going forward.
This should be the perfect chance for the Astros. A. Garcia to the Astros for Derrick Fisher, Colon Moran, Cional Perez and Deen Deetz.
That would be a very fair trade for both teams. Astros would then use Marwin Gonzalez as the Super Utility Corner Outfielder slash utility infielder slash designated hitter. Would keep a lot of guys fresh all over the field.
That is way to much to pay for Avisal Garcia I’m sure the Astros would not even entertain that deal too much to pay.
Would think Astros wold rather give Tucker a shot to win an open spot in the OF
Tucker is going to be 21 next season and has only played 72 games in AA. He’d have to have a miraculous showing in ST to get a shot next year. He’s more likely a September call-up to get his feet wet.
Agreed (with Bruin) that above proposal is too much. I’d happily take Fisher and a decent arm for Avi though. And this is coming from someone that has never been all that high on Fisher…
Not sure why but I dig the name Deen Deetz.
No way the astros would ever do that. You want a top OF prospect, a good 3B prospect, and 2 great pitching prospects for a decent outfielder who had one year with an usually high BABIP. The astros don’t trade prospects unless they have too, and they would much rather sign someone like Gonzalez for a 1 year prove it deal.
Holy crap. I thought the original poster was out there with his trade proposal, but you sound just as crazy.
1) Fisher is not, and has not ever been, a “top OF prospect.” The only time I could ever find him being in the top 100 on any list is pre-2017, when he ranked #83 on MLB.com’s rankings. And no, I’m not saying those lists are perfect, but if he was a legitimate “top OF prospect,” he would’ve been on all the lists and ranked MUCH higher. Guys like Acuna, Eloy, and Robles are TOP prospects. Fangraphs pegged Fisher as a 45 FV last year. That’s far from a top prospect.
2) Moran is a mediocre 3B prospect. For starters, he’s looked at as average at best on the defensive side. On top of that, last year was the only year he has really mashed in the minors, and he did it as a 25 year old. He’s only 1 year younger than Garcia… Not they type of “prospect” the White Sox are looking for. He wasn’t even listed on Fangraphs top 21 prospects for the Astros last year. Calling him a good prospect is a stretch.
3) Neither of those pitching prospects are even close to being “great pitching prospects.” I don’t think I should even need to elaborate further on this one…
the trade perposel was ridiculous but this guy’s evaluation was was even worse
You’re arguing adjectives… Fisher was ranked around #50 for both BA and MLB.com before he graduated, so if your definition of a ‘top prospect’ is a top 10 prospect, then sure Fisher doesn’t fit that category, but there’s only about 5 OF that do. Moran is a former top draft pick that only had 1 bad year before fixing his swing this year, Longenhagen said he’s always been lower on Moran, so you pointing out his fangraphs ranking before this year isn’t really telling the whole story. You pointed out MLB.com’s rankings earlier, but failed to mention that they have Moran smack dab between Burger and Riley on their top 3B prospects, so if he’s a ‘mediocre prospect’ then there’s only like 5 3B prospects that are better than mediocre.
If you’ll set specific definitions of what prospects are allowed to be called “top’ ‘good’ ‘great’ or ‘mediocre’ then we can make comments to better cater to you.
Fischer and AJ Reed would be a better trade.
I’d be happy with that.
I would definitely consider this to be an overpay. However, if Avi has a great first half, this would be a reasonable package if the Astros decide they have to have the upgrade.
I think the A’s will trade for him.
I’m thinking the cardinals will once they miss out on Stanton.
he’s not better than what they have
Yeah, I’m surprised the A’s weren’t mention in this article as a potential suitor for Garcia considering they were rumored to be talking to the White Sox about him earlier this offseason.
How many “Looking for a match” trade scenarios are you going to do …
Do you have any better ideas? Stanton and Otani are holding up the market, so theres nothing happening
Yeah, really hoping something happens with both of them at the Winter Meetings so the FA and trade season can really kick off.
hopefully more
mets for matz
I would do that if I was even 25% sure Matz’s elbow wasn’t going to fall off. Unfortunately, I am not. Waaaay too big of an injury risk for me.
Avi had a very good 2017. He is 26 and still a prospect himself. If he can stay healthy and focused-then he should remain a Chisox asset indefinitely. No trade bait here thank you.
I agree. Unless the sox are convinced last year was a fluke, there is No way I trade a 26 year old runner up batting champion who went hit less for a couple of weeks while he played hurt
Unless the deal is overwhelming, I’d show some patience. If he continues his 2017 performance try to lock him up long term. If he doesn’t sign, trade him mid-season.
I think that if the Cardinals miss out on Stanton, they will trade for Abreu
and Garcia from the Sox!
The Rockies were mentioned as one of the best fits for Jose Abreu in the earlier article and now for Avisail Garcia in this one. This could make for a very interesting blockbuster trade, especially with the division rival Diamondbacks also in play for Garcia.
I’d still prefer the White Sox to hang on to Jose Abreu and extend him as a core piece in their rebuild but if they get an overwhelming deal for either Rick Hahn won’t hesitate to pull the trigger. I still see Garcia as the more likely piece to be moved this year and he may net more from some needy contender as the summer trade deadline approaches.
Rick Hahn just might jump at the chance to acquire either 1B Pavin Smith or RHP Jon Duplantier in a straight up trade with Arizona for Avisail Garcia. Both are top-100 prospects and are also the top-2 talents in the Diamondback system per mlb.com.
The White Sox were rumored to be interested in Smith last June before Arizona selected him with the #7 overall pick in the MLB Amateur Draft. The White Sox settled for 3B Jake Burger at #11 and followed that up with left-handed hitting 1B Gavin Sheets in the second round. While Smith (#62 ranked prospect) is also a lefty power hitting 1B prospect like Sheets, the former has a much higher hit tool aided by an exceptional BB/SO ratio in his college career and thus far as a pro.
Meanwhile, 2016 third round Rule 4 Draft pick Duplantier (#95 ranked prospect) has been nothing short of sensational as a starting pitcher in his first 1-1/2 seasons of pro ball at the low and high A levels in the Diamondback system.
no way they get smith for Garcia
I wouldn’t touch this guy one good year with a big babip and worse exit velocity same old guy