As the Astros prepare for a World Series title defense, they are at least weighing the possibility of adding a significant rotation piece, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, the club has “shown interest” in top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Possible trade targets such as Chris Archer could also be considered.
At this stage, it seems, that interest is mostly exploratory in nature. That’s not to diminish the importance of the report, though: the involvement of the ’Stros at the top of the rotation market could certainly have a significant bearing on how things shake out.
Though Houston’s payroll has continued to climb northward in recent years, the team’s successes have perhaps freed up some additional financial flexibility. Rosenthal also notes that the organization could find a taker for Collin McHugh — who’s projected to earn $4.8MM by MLBTR — should they make a big strike in the rotation.
On the one hand, this news hardly rates as a surprise. While the ’Stros staff has plenty of talent, particularly with Justin Verlander now on hand, it also comes with some questions. Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton have had some health concerns at times and Brad Peacock will need to prove his 2017 breakout is sustainable. Plus, with Dallas Keuchel slated for free agency next winter, there’s room to consider a long-term addition.
On the other, this is a bit of an interesting development. The unfortunate incident involving Yulieski Gurriel mocking Darvish during the World Series is one factor with regard to that particular possibility, though both players’ responses in the aftermath suggest it’s not an insurmountable barrier. Of greater importance, perhaps, is the fact that the Astros were so careful even when deciding to add Verlander out of concern for over-burdening their future payroll. Darvish and Arrieta are each already 31 years of age.
Then there’s the fact that the bullpen remains the obvious area to target. What’s most interesting about this report may be the possibility that the Astros would consider a major rotation upgrade to be a means of answering needs on the relief side — at least in part. With top youngsters such as Francis Martes and David Paulino climbing the ladder, there are plenty of avenues for creativity. Adding another quality starter would leave the organization with significant depth and flexibility to keep arms fresh through the season and, perhaps, enter a hypothetical postseason run with loads of interesting possibilities for handling a staff.
Not a bad idea with keuchel picking up Boras. Can have 3 ac
I thought the same thing with this news coming right on the heels of Keuchel switching to Boras. Boras will set the asking price above $200M and want 6 years for Keuchel. HOU will most assuredly offer him the QO and then pass on making him a long term offer after he declines. Smart to search for his replacement now.
Kudos for the inclusion of the Gurriel incident. Sure, money and winning bridges all gaps, but it is an interesting development if HOU is serious about adding Darvish.
I see Martes and Paulino as 2 of their bigger trade assets that can be used to strengthen the team. Martes should be one of the pieces send to the Padres for Hand. Paulino could be one of the low risk high reward guys that is packaged to get a guy like Archer or maybe Gerrit Cole. I highly detest the idea of signer either of Darvish or Arrieta.
You detest your team getting better?
I detest the idea of the Astros paying Arrieta for what are probably about to be his worst seasons. The dude is 33 and it’s so hard to trust his mechanics going forward. His stuff is already in obvious decline and he’s not getting any younger. He’ll probably get a 5 year deal worth about $22-25 million. I wouldn’t even touch this guy with 3 year deal. I would have less of a problem with Darvish, but it just depends on the contract. Something along the lines of what Lester received should be the absolute maximum.
trading for Archer isn’t gonna be much cheaper than signing those 2. Prospects wise at least. At least Yu won’t cost a draft pick. For what its worth.
I admit that Archer is the least likely of him and Cole. I understand that the Bucs want quite a lot for him. I’d really prefer to keep both Whitley and Tucker, but sadly one of those would be needed to land either guy. That leaves Martes, Paulino, Moran, Davis, Fisher, Reed, Bukauskus, Alvarez, Perez to get a deal done. They could make it happen.
half astros……what’s the other half?
think it’s a play on words..half asstros..get it?
Guys on here will say Springer Altuve and Giles for Archer or Rays hang up the phone.
While that is unrealistic, the Rays can afford to wait if they don’t get what they want. Unless Archer tanks his own value the Rays will get about the same value for him now than they would get two years down the road.
So you’re saying a deal including Forrest Whitley, Derek Fisher, Colan Moran, and David Paulino wouldn’t get the Ray attention? I realize that even that may be a piece short, but it’s a solid start. All four could be inserted onto the 25 man roster immediately.
No, the Rays won’t get about the same value for Archer now as 2 years down the road. A huge part of why Archer has so much trade value is that he’s under team control on a very team-friendly contract for the next 4 years, the last two of which are team options. Cut that team control in half and his value drops a lot.
He might get a very similar return at the 2018 trade deadline, because contenders will often pay up for pitching upgrades in-season to above off-season returns.
Rays would decline because they can’t afford it
I know Darvish struggled in the WS… but can you imagine a postseason rotation with him Verlander and Keuchel to go along with their lineup?? Sheesh!
Darvish already made his first 2 starts with the Astros in the world series
If I may offer a re-write:
Darvish already won two WS games for Houston.
Now that is funny
In all honesty, not trolling. Was giving up Willie Calhoun worth it? He wasn’t horrible in NLDS/CS
Dodgers gave up calhoun because he can’t play defense. He is a DH who has no position to play for the dodgers. There are dozen of players like Calhoun who can hit but can’t play any D. I doubt the dodgers even care he is gone.
I don’t necessarily disagree with that, but he could’ve been used in an another deal perhaps. But also I think Yu was worth it even after the fact (WS starts).
No , but not because darvish pitched bad. Calhoun had more value then burning him for a rental. They should have traded him for someone who had more team control
Calhoun wouldn’t have been able to get a good starter. More likely a mediocre reliever. Both teams in the trade got the most out of their former player.
“Calhoun wouldn’t have been able to get a good starter”. Ummm he got a top 20 starter in baseball. Now good starter under team control sure im with you there. And i think the Dodgers could used willy towards a Brad Hand or Tommy Kahnle with calhoun in the deal. Note towards not the headliner
That’s kind of a slippery slope to go on. There’s so many things that can happen with rentals In the few months they play for that team. You could end up with darvish, and not win the World Series and be without the prospect. Do the dodgers regret that trade? Who knows? They were very close to winning the World Series and might not have got that far without him. Then there’s a trade like Torres for Chapman, where the Cubs probably overpaid, but who cares, since they won. And finally it could’ve ended up like the Price trade few years ago. The prospects haven’t really turned into anything and the Jays didn’t win the World Series, so really no harm no foul.
Yeah, evaluating trades is really hard. I do think hindsight-based analysis should be shied away from, because there’s so much unpredictability in the playoffs, especially with regards to rentals. If teams looked at things and said “this trade is a failure unless we win the World Series,” then they’d never make deadline moves, because no trade guarantees postseason success. I think the better way is to only evaluate with information the team had at the time the deal was made, although that’s obviously got its drawbacks too
Now that is funny
I don’t think they should pursue Arrieta.
Even with his injury woes, I anticipate Lance McCullers to become the Astros Ace after DK and JV depart. His changeup has really improved as an out pitch in 2017.
Shopping for Archer would be risky. The Rays would love to finagle the Astros out of top prospects Tucker and Whitley.
Please say no to an Archer trade. He is good but I think his cost from the Rays would be Astronomical! Let’s see what Whitley has in his tank. Buy a FA pitcher if you must, but young BOSS in house pitching keeps you good, don’t trade them away.
I sure would love me some chris archer. Interesting to view that as a way to benefit your bullpen. It forces someone like McHugh to be traded and allows peacock to be cemented as a long reliever as long Morton and everybody else in the rotation can stay healthy. Still would like another lefty reliever though
It is true their payroll was up at the end of the year, however with Beltran, Gregerson, Fiers, Maybin and Liriano off the books, that did drop their payroll back down by almost $30 million if I am not mistaken. Granted Verlander will be on the books for the entire amount this year. Cutting off Beltran, Fiers and Gregorson alone cut out about $26 million. So there is flexibility there.
They will need to prepare for Altuve, Springer and Keuchal becoming FA in the coming years though. (Of course Verlander will be off the books once Altuve and Springer are FA)
It did clear that money, but look at the guys going through arbitration and that number is nearly taken right back. So, payroll will be going up.
Arbitration #s aren’t going up that much this year. I beg to differ. That’s one of the reasons Fiers wasn’t offered a contract.
I have been saying that I think they let Keuchel walk after next year, now with Boras in tow, I think that will come true. They need someone like Archer that is controllable. For 1 season, a rotation of Keuchel, Verlander, Archer, McCullers, and Morton/Peacock would be nasty, especially with that offense.
Gerrit Cole, Astros?
I’m not sure how many years he’s signed for and I’ve felt that he has been a combination of injury prone and underperforming for 3 of the last 4 years.
Nice idea but to expensive (top prospect)
As long as the Astros look to upgrade, I’m happy. Too many teams just keep the same players after a big year and few win the following year. If they have the resources to improve in key areas, they should. I’d rather have Darvish/Arrieta as my 3/4 pitcher than Morton. I’d love to get W. Davis to replace Giles.
At the same time, depth is important, so they shouldn’t trade their prospects willy nilly. Which is why I think trading for Archer would be bad as it would cost too many top prospects. The core of the Astros will get expensive quickly and will be free agents in a year or 2. Keep some replacements within the system to restock. By all means, make some trades but don’t forget the future. Personally, I’d love to see them trade Giles for prospects and send them to the Padres for Hand.
Giles is better than Wade Davis and cheaper.
It doesn’t matter who slots in where in the rotation. Behind Verlander the rotation’s value is somewhat equal (health, stuff, talent, etc), being that Keuchel’s work in the 2017 wasn’t any more valuable than the other members of the rotation.
To me the rotation is more of a question mark than it was last year with established guys only getting older and McCullers continually struggling to stay healthy and effective despite being so young.
by no means is Giles better than Davis, just look at the stats. Also, with Clippard and Gregerson both gone, and Tony Sipp having a down season, Devinski struggled a bit down the stretch, it is more vital for the astros to look for bullpen help
I did look at the stats.
Davis beat Giles in two meaningful metrics (K/9), by two tenths of a strikeout and in average against. Davis had a BABIP 30 points lower while having only 10 points lower average against. Other than that Giles had better peripherals and stats as well as fWAR by almost a full win.
Add to the fact that Giles is way cheaper, younger, and less experienced while proving as effective I wouldn’t even consider Davis. It’s simply weak kneed to call for Giles to be ousted.
Cheaper, younger, and arguably as effective. Ok, I can give you those points. I’ll admit I didn’t realize Davis hadn’t performed as well for the Cubs than he did with the Royals. But my point was more to the fact that an upgrade at closer (and bullpen in general) would be welcomed. Maybe I’m old fashioned, but my gut just does not let me trust Giles in a one run situation (and that was my opinion before he got lit up in the post season). If they can get a better option, they should.
Ok, and that’s fine to have that opinion, but Davis over Giles just isn’t a net plus.
I think you stick with Giles until he proves to be an actual liability. The Astros gave up half the farm to get him and he pitched well in 2017.
the astros, in all fairness, gave up nothing for Giles. Appeal just got released, Vince Velasquez hasn’t shown anything yet, and Brett Oberholtzer is a free agent
They better not block or trade Forrest Whitley.
why don’t we just look to extend one of our younger players instead of spending money on a big name free agent…….
Same reason Martes spent all year in the pen, Devenski and Musgrove are now relievers and Fiers is gone.
The Gurriel incident wasn’t “unfortunate “. It was racist, just say it. Pathetic trying to dance around it. Will that ultimately effect any players the Astros want to acquire going forward? Doubtful, but don’t minimize how elementary school racist it was.
On the Gurriel deal, none of the players thought it was racist, just the fans. This type of kidding happens all the time in the clubhouse. Unfortunately, this one got caught on camera. Move on!
You are exactly right. Under what ‘values’ does one classify Gurriels ‘actions’ as either ‘unfortunate’ or an ‘incident’
It was a conscious decision of his (think to yourself if you would ‘ever’ use a racial slur, epithet, action … if in fact your own values didn’t suggest this ‘behavior’ was acceptable)
Call it what it is (not was, ‘is’). The only thing that changed was that Gurriel got ‘caught’ and now everyone knows how he thinks
Mr Beale… your words speak for yourself … interesting that you yourself call him ‘getting caught in camera’ as being ‘unfortunate.’
You call this clubhouse behavior ‘kidding?’ If you poll any Hispanic, Asian, black or other minority who has ‘ever’ been ‘kidded’ (your words, not anyone else’s) in the locker room, at a public venue, on the ballfield or in the lunchroom, you would be hard pressed to find anyone (non predjudiced) to agree
Let’s also think about some obvious things you are choosing to ignore
– it wasn’t the locker room, it was on the field
– the lockeroom implies some sort of clubhouse comraderie, Gurriel didn’t even know Darvish
– yeah, do that type of gesture to ‘anyone’ you don’t know and try to convince the person you ‘did it to’ that you were kidding
… your own words say volumes about ‘you’ ..
Should trade for Archer and Longoria for McHugh, Paulino and Gurriel. For the Champs- Archer would fit great as a 3rd slot SP behind JV and DK, lessening the load on Injury prone McCullers. Longoria fills nicely as 1B or occasional DH batting in the 5th-6th slot. Paulino is youth and low $ Rays want, McHugh fills in as a starter for Rays and is reasonably priced on short contract. And Gurriel gets closer to home and could play either corner position, high average hitter. Win for both teams.
Smart on the Astros to start venturing into looking for a replacement Starter for D.K. especially with the new of him signing with Boras. Verlander is no doubt on the Old Side and Lance and Morton definitely have injury concerns. Astros have plenty of prospect trade pieces to attempt to land Archer but if I were them I would target Darvish. Ya is 4-1 with 2.16 ERA at MM Park. He was ONE out away from a perfect game back in 2013 and 5 outs from a No No later that same season. I believe YU being the professional that he is, could easily squash the beef with Gurriel and with his age and lack of recent success, could be signed for a reasonable amount. Plus he’s right in that age range to fit perfectly with the timing of there prospects and there eventual MLB debuts in the coming seasons 2019-2021.
Arrietta is 1-0 at MM the last 3 years with only ONE start there only lasting 5.1, throwing 3 SO equaling an unappealing plus 4. 5 ERA. Plus Jake would be asking a pretty penny which smaller market Astros wouldn’t want to partake.
Chris Archer would be a great option on Trade as the Astros definitely have the talent in the minors to do so. If the really wanted to bring in Darvish they could even package the deal with Yulieski and Paulino and than give JD Davis a chance to start that or package Davis with Paulino and or Martes. Archer is controlled for another 2 years and matches the age of there Youth movement. If Astros want to make a splash they should sign Darvish