Yesterday morning, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score published a report with a few interesting notes on free agent pitchers. So far, the biggest free agent pitching signing has been the Cubs’ surprising $38MM deal for Tyler Chatwood, while Mike Minor, Jhoulys Chacin, Miles Mikolas, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Fiers, Doug Fister, and Yovani Gallardo are also off the board.
- Six years and $160MM was said to be the starting point for Jake Arrieta in November, sources tell Levine. Even in making these predictions in late October, we went with four years and $100MM for Arrieta. Levine says Arrieta and fellow free agent Yu Darvish are currently looking for at least five-year deals. The pair of righties were born 163 days apart back in 1986, and the case can be made that Darvish doesn’t deserve more years than Arrieta based on age. Including Japan and the MLB postseason, Darvish has tallied 2,337 innings in his career, and he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015. Including college and the MLB postseason, Arrieta is at 1,910 2/3. Does this difference of 426 1/3 innings, thrown under many different stress levels, actually matter in terms of injury risk? I have no idea, but the respective agents will make a few claims. In the end, though, it’s just a bidding war. Teams bid on both pitchers until the agents decide they’re unlikely to do better, and then a deal is made.
- “It appears a four or five-year deal is expected” for free agent righty Alex Cobb, writes Levine. Cobb had Tommy John surgery in May of 2015, and has just over 700 innings in his pro career. A week ago, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that Cobb “likely sees Mike Leake ($80 million, five years) as a comp and is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year.” However, Levine wrote yesterday that “Dan Horwits, Cobb’s agent, has denied a report that the Cobb camp was asking for $20 million annually.” Though we went with four years and $48MM in our early November predictions, I’d certainly take the over on the average annual value in light of the Chatwood contract. At the time, I was looking at Brandon McCarthy’s four-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers from three years ago, but it’s fair to say the market has moved since then on this type of pitcher.
- Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management). As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal. The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.
I think all these pictures are going to get big deals so many teams still need rotation help
I wish I was a “picture” in this day and age!
Pedro’s picture of prime will still get a lot more than any of these.
It’s “ Pitcher “ not “ Picture “ . Dumbass “ PasswordlsPassword “.
Thanks for shedding light on this situation. We were all confused.
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Pictures get deals?
What you want and what you get are 2 different things. I just don’t see either of them getting way north of $20 million a year. Desperation is the only way either of them get north of $20 million long term deal. This pushes the cost of young starters way up the prospect list.
They’ll certainly get more than 20 million annually, they won’t be getting 6 year deals though.
Very few pitchers are good for over 5 years of being great. Less than 10 has done so in the last 5 years.
Ok? They’ll still get over 20 million annually.
Most likely they will get paid by some desperate team. In 2 years you will see that same team trying to trade him for another future bad contract.
“Fewer than 10”, not “less than 10”. Grammer matters.
*Grammar
Unless I’m mistaken McCarthy didn’t have a QO attached to him when the Dodgers signed him, Cobb does. That makes a difference.
Definitely a good point.
Great point. I still think none of these guys get more than 4 years….if they were going to get 5 they would’ve already signed. I see Cobb to the Cubs ((Maddon connections); Darvish back to the Rangers; Arrieta to the Astros & Lynn to the Nationals or Phillies.
I can see Darvish and Arrieta getting 5 years. Cobb only 4 and probably in the $12MM AAV ranger per.
If Chatwood got 3/$38mm, I have to think Cobb goes for at least 4/$60mm.
Why? Chatwood is nearly 2 yrs younger and again the QO is going to hurt Cobb’s total compensation package, IMO. Would you rather pay Cobb through the age of 33 and give up a draft pick(s) OR would you have rathered pay Chatwood through the age of 30, less money with no draft picks.
As is the case with nearly every huge free agency contract for aging pitchers, the signings will be epic fails. Teams never learn.
Signing position players to long-term contracts beyond 30 years old is almost always a fail. A few have produced market value, but those are few and far between. Position players begin to decline on a predictable slope in their age 30 season.
Pitchers are a different story. They do not decline with as much predictability and we are seeing some pitch well into their late 30s. Take the biggest of long-term pitching contracts one by one. While they are not all FA deals, they are the 5 biggest deals.
Scherzer’s 7 year deal that started in 2015 has been an unmitigated success halfway through. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, he is a win in terms of market value.
Kershaw’s 7-year deal that started in 2014 has been a complete success. Whether he opts out or not it has been a win for the Dodgers.
Verlander’s 10-year deal that started in 2010 has been a huge success. 3.24 ERA, one bad year, and one season he missed more than 5 starts.
Those are the 3 biggest deals for pitchers. All are wins.
Beyond that you have Lester and Tanaka at 6/155 and 7/155 respectively.
Lester was great the 1st 2 seasons and fell off a little last season. Remains to be seen if he can maintain his performance.
Tanaka is a lose for me because of time lost to injury. He has only started 105 games in 4 seasons. Good stats when he has taken the mound other than in 2017, so you could say he has provided surplus value, but for me he just hasn’t pitched enough,
So 4 out of 5 are good deals and Tanaka could be called a good deal.
For past big deals Sabathia’s 7 year $161 million deal with the Yankees was a good deal up until the point he opted out. The Yankees lost by extending him after the opt out.
There are some other big deals out there, Strasburg’s 7 year deal that started in 2017, Greinke’s 6 year deal that started in 2016, Cueto’s 6/130 deal that started in 2016. It is too soon to make a call on any of those. Mixed results for each so far, but we can’t say one way or another now.
Wow, you really are out in left field buddy.
Scherzer’s deal started in 2015 and he’s 3 years into a 7 year deal…..let’s see how he does in the last 4 before trumpeting the signing as a success “regardless of what he does the rest of the way” as you say.
Long term deals are meant to be “wins” for the entire length of the deal….would you buy a car over 7 years and while it ran well through 4, and the other 3 sucked consider it a good purchase????
Pitchers are just as vulnerable on long term deals as position players….they get payed for the entire length of the contract and ownership has every right to expect value for each year….not just 3/4 of the way and call it a win.
And by the way, Tanaka has pitched okay for NY, and doesn’t need to be a workhorse to prove his value.
Greinke’s deal has hamstrung the Diamondbacks team, and will cause them to make everyday player decisions based on payroll rather than the right formula to make the team successful.
Nah, Scherzer has pretty much been worth his deal already. Any extra thing he accomplishes from here on out is gravy. All free-agent contracts are given out based on what a player has done, not really what he is going to do. Players are underpaid early in their careers, free-agency is the way they get paid for what they’ve done. Teams know this, players know this, agents know this. They know a player declines after 30. It’s the way it works. Even in the non-sports world, your salary is negotiated based on what you have done/accomplished, not what you may accomplish in the future.
just look at the list of FA deals and extensions. See how many teams would like to get out of those deals. Without drugs, guys best years are 25-29, not 29-35. And all of these FA’s and extensions are for later years.
That is partially true. For position players, absolutely. For pitchers, not so much.
Don’t think so….your opinion!
Buy that car with a 7 year loan, and only get 4 good years out of it and tell us it was a good deal that you would do again!
This is such a flawed analogy I don’t even know where to begin. An athlete is not a piece of precision machinery.
Agreed!
Arrieta has lost 2.5mph on his 4-seamer and his cutter since his CY Young year. He threw his 4-seamer more often the last 2 years and has really reduced the usage of his Cutter. With him having a 7.5% swing the wrong way on gb% and his hr/fb% increasing every season. I’d be very cautious with him. Granted he’s walking fewer guys but it isn’t translating into other things.
With only 168.1 innings last year and the stats declining, I’d find it hard to give him a long term deal with an AAV exceeding 20 million.
I see him as a pillow contract candidate in the neighborhood of 24-28 million.
Totally agree. I think Arrieta is on the downhill slide on his career and is worth no more than a 2 year deal at a less than $20M AAV. Even with Darvish anything more than a 4 year deal is risky. Just depends on how desperate a team is to “look good” with their fans that they are doing something in the offseason or their acceptance that they may get a couple of good years out of these guys and several bad years. I don’t understand why a team would give any of these players anything more than a 4 year deal, beyond age 35, when really ALL of the long term free agent deals have been failures. Not one has been good…..I can’t name one.
Your logic is correct but the fans and media seem to have this, “be careful,” conversation every year and so and so player gets 100 plus million. This off season does seem to be a little bit different than most but until I actually see something like that Arrieta deal you mentioned, no way I believe it. I still think Boras gets him 4 years around 100 million.
@ baumer16, Yeah, I see someone ponying up the money based on potential alone. Teams always overpay for potential. Though maybe this year will be different. We’ll have to sit back and watch.
5 year/$130 million with a vesting option for a 6th year.
Difficult to know exactly what the Cubs saw in Chatwood but for sure the price tag for journeyman starters continues to inflate. If Chatwood can haul in $12m/year, Cobb should be good for at least $15m.
I think cubs simply wanted to wrap up at least 1 SP quickly. They may have over paid but they knew they had at least 2 holes in the rotation to fill.
Chatwood’s numbers away from Denver were excellent.
Chatwood away from Coors field has been very good. That is what they saw. We shall see how it works out.
Chatwood is actually a very solid pitcher away from Denver. There is a huge difference between his stats in Denver and away from Denver. If I remember correctly, his Home ERA was around 6 and away it was about 3.5. I think this will end up being one of the better value signings of the offseason
His career FIP is actually higher than his ERA, which leads me to wonder if he’s actually that much better away from Coors.
He probaby won’t ever standout in fIP
link to beyondtheboxscore.com
That article isn’t really very useful as it addresses only one season. Nobody pitches better at Coors than elsewhere. FIP is supposed to control for park factors, so if Chatwood never stands out in FIP, the reasons might be something to consider. All that being said I’m not shocked by what he got from the Cubs so much as using it as an illustration of the steadily rising value of journeymen starters. Cobb looks to be altogether better than Chatwood, so I’d expect him to get more.
He ditched his curveball, which may have been his best pitch, years ago because of Coors. It’s possible the Cubs may help him rediscover it now that he’s gone from Denver.
I think teams are skittish about signing any of the big 3 pitchers left on the market because None of them are a dominant ace at this point. Max Scherzer was a completely different story when he hit free agency, and his consistent production before and after the signing justifies his contract. I don’t think anyone honestly feels there is a significant probability any 3 of these SPs will provide upper level value for the next 5 years. The teams signing these guys will come down to either desperation and/or who is best positioned to deal with the hangover afterward and a potential albatross (see DET/Jordan Zimmerman) for half the contract or more. Teams are finally understanding that throwing caution to the wind and saying, “It’s only money.” tends to severely limit their flexibility for years to come.
I’m so tired of Cobb rumors to Cubs. It’s a “perfect” fit and blah blah blah. Who cares if he played for Maddon before, won’t make him worth 20 mil a year. Pony up an extra 5-7 mil and get a true ace in Darvish
You can argue that Yu’s recent past does not mae him worthy of that, either.
Teams just dont want to spend the money this offseason given whos available next off season.
In all honesty, Arrieta and Darvish should take 1 year deal like 18-20 mill with a player option around the same amount and reenter the FA market next year assuming they dont get injured and have a good season.
The reason I say this is teams might panic and give out the deal theyre looking for next year if they miss out on names Kershaw, Keuchel, etc.
Darvish isn’t tied to a QO that means more money for him. Both will get paid this year. Waiting until next year would be leaving money on the table.
Theyll get paid but would you sign a 5 year 75 mill contract now or wait next year and hope someone offers 5 years 100 mill in hopes to allocate resources they saved for kershaw keuchel that they are withholding this off season.
Since teams dont lose anything for signing guys under 50 mill I wonder if the agents can ask for contract language to prohibit teams from attaching a QO to arrieta or darvish. The team loses nothing by giving them 1 year 17 mill and a 1 year player option at 20 mill.
I mean if thats the case i can see fringe teams in on darvish and arrieta for 1 year and deal them if they are out of the race.
It’s funny how the off-season started with Cobb being the under-the-radar bargain of the starting pitcher lot. Since then he’s probably been the most talked about of them all.
These (alleged) asking prices + comp picks make me think the Bucs should be getting a lot more calls about Cole
Cole outside of one year is a glorified .500 pitcher, and not worth what the pirates ask
I believe he is overrated, too, but i he goes to NY, he becomes a twenty win candidate, with the same numbers. udging his value on wins and losses is silly.
Yankees fans are not worry about wins when it comes to Cole, is his hrs allowed and that era that most likely will be over 4
What’s a .500 pitcher? No one looks at W-L percentage any more
Arrieta reminds me of James Shields a few years ago.. A TOR pitcher about to turn 32 with obviously declining stuff is not going to get a Strasburg level contract.. Arrieta is hitting free agency two years too late and will be lucky to get a Shields level contract unless he signs a incentive heavy contract with several option years and a hefty buy out..
I will not be shocked to see Cobb meet or exceed Arrieta’s eventual deal.. He has half the innings on his arm and is younger.. He has only one full season under his belt since returning from TJS. Most pitchers (in my opinion) tend to find their groove again their second year back.. I think Cobb is the safer bet..
I am at a loss about Darvish.. He seems like exactly the type of pitcher that would have signed a big money contract by now. Maybe, he is just holding out until one of the others signs and he can gauge the market price a bit better.. Complete speculation though..
Arrieta’s durability and conditioning should be considered. I can see him as a healthy MOR starter, at least, for 5 or 6 more years. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to top form at some point. I think he’s probably worth in the 5/25 aav range.
I think the starters will start to sign soon enough,but I believe we’re going to see shorter term deals for higher dollar amounts,Arrieta getting 80-90 million over three seasons for example.Teams just don’t want to tie up long term cash in a risky investment..
Teams are giving out short multi year deals for set up guys at 9 million a year,I could see that trend extend itself to the starting pitching available.
Next year’s FA pitcher class is awful. This may be the year money gets thrown around
Clayton Kershaw, Drew Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Keuchel, David Price (who will opt out), Craig Kimbrel. Much better than this year’s class.
Lol why would Price opt out?
Um, because he hates and despises playing in Boston with Boston media and largely armchair, know it all fan base? And maybe because his velocity was at all time high last season, and, he’s healthy?
Price isn’t opting out
Kershaw isn’t coming on the market for certain, either.
signing Cobb to a long term deal will be a big mistake like Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Nolasco, Feldman, Edwin Jackson….
I agree with everyone on that list except for Lester. In his three years with the Cubs so far, he’s averaged 15 wins a year, ERA in mid 3s, first 2 years a Cy Young contender, WS title in 2016 (maybe his best year ever as a major leaguer, 2nd place in CYA). I am sure that despite a 150 mil./6 year deal, Lester has provided at least 90 million in value so far…at least. As a Red Sox fan, I regret them not re signing him.
wouldn’t give cobb more than 2/32, for arrieta and darvish i’d lowball at 3/51 and work from there, but not exceeding 4/60
WOW, if you were a GM you would have a very crappy then.
Then you’re not getting any of them
I think all the other teams have given up since the Yankees are gonna go back to back to back for the next few years.
If the Cubs sign any of the 4 big pitchers available I’d prefer them sign Darvish to say 5/125 with a option for a 6th.. Here is why I’d prefer Darvish. Arietta is/was a good pitcher, but many seem to think he is about to implode, Cubs have a depleted farm system. Some other team signs him and Davis they will have 4 picks before the 3rd rd. If they sign Arrieta they lose a comp pick and if he is going down, that a bad contract they are stuck with. Cobb and Lynn would cost them a 2nd rd pick. Darvish wouldn’t cost anything but the hefty contract and they’d have 2 extra picks to help rebuild their farm system.
I agree. Something is off with Arrieta
corn on the cobb gets 65 for four,,,to seattle thats what bob martin from mlb reseach prof says ….done by wed….get your butter ready mariner fans
I have a feeling the corn is not sweet so I’ll pass.
After reading a recent Darvish profile in Sports Illustrated, I have a newfound respect for him, his life, his values, and his potential to be a full season, 200 plus innings ace. The article also made it clear that he was very upset with his series performance and will probably serve as a motivator. If I were a GM I’d have to strongly consider Darvish.
I was really hoping Theo and Jed would have got something done with Cobb ..maybe lance Lynn instead. Hopefully they stay away from Darvish..