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Poll: Who Will Sign Jake Arrieta?

By Tim Dierkes | December 28, 2017 at 12:12pm CDT

Jake Arrieta is one of four major free agent starting pitchers who seems destined to sign in the new year.  Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has a long history of waiting out the market.  Here’s a list of free agent contracts signed by Boras clients in the last decade in January, February, or March:

  • Prince Fielder – $214MM (Jan 2012)
  • Max Scherzer – $210MM (Jan 2015)
  • Mark Teixeira – $180MM (Jan 2009)
  • Chris Davis – $161MM (Jan 2016)
  • Matt Holliday – $120MM (Jan 2010)
  • Wei-Yin Chen – $80MM (Jan 2016)
  • Adrian Beltre – $80MM (Jan 2011)
  • J.D. Drew – $70MM (Feb 2007)
  • Derek Lowe – $60MM (Jan 2009)
  • Michael Bourn – $48MM (Feb 2013)
  • Manny Ramirez – $45MM (Mar 2009)
  • Oliver Perez – $36MM (Feb 2009)
  • Rafael Soriano – $35MM (Jan 2011)
  • Kyle Lohse – $33MM (Mar 2013)
  • Denard Span – $31MM (Jan 2016)

Keep in mind, however, that not all of these contracts met expectations.  We ranked Arrieta fourth on our list, with a prediction of four years, $100MM that I’m guessing Boras would have said was way low.  I think Arrieta can still get a contract in that range.  But from which team?

The Cubs seem more interested in Yu Darvish than in bringing Arrieta back, but it’s reasonable to keep them in the mix for Jake.  Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has linked the Nationals to Arrieta, and that’s certainly a team that was involved on many of the above-listed Boras free agents.  A source speaking to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post called the team’s interest in Arrieta “tepid.”  Heyman has also named the Phillies, though Inquirer beat writer Matt Gelb doesn’t see that as likely either.  The Astros, Blue Jays, Rockies, Rangers, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals have been linked as well.  Keep in mind that teams that might have shied away from huge November/December demands for Arrieta could re-enter the picture if the price gets more realistic in the new year.  Another factor is draft pick compensation.  For more info on that, check out my post about which draft picks each team would lose by signing a qualified free agent like Arrieta.

With that, I throw it out to you:

(Poll link for app users)

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73 Comments

  1. acarneglia

    7 years ago

    Yankees. I wish

    Reply
    • srechter

      7 years ago

      Gosh no. Luxury tax matters big time for their next offseason. And this is not the starter to break the bank on. So many red flags for a guy who is looking for 2015 Arrieta-caliber money. Darvish is equally as worrisome. I’m not surprised teams, Yankees included, haven’t even entered the discussion.

      3
      Reply
      • Solaris601

        7 years ago

        I agree. Overspending on Arrieta requires the signing team to invest in a ship load of hopes, faith, and prayers. When GMs and owners search down deep in their heart of hearts they are faced with the reality that Arrieta is not a sure thing. Gotta look at the situation the way the Vegas oddsmakers do, and resist the rose colored glasses Scott Boras is constantly peddling.

        2
        Reply
        • SeanStL

          7 years ago

          I hate scum like you.

          Reply
  2. KillahAC

    7 years ago

    Red Sox, hopefully.

    1
    Reply
    • aggee10

      7 years ago

      Umm no.

      1
      Reply
      • dirtydan

        7 years ago

        Anything of substance to add? Maybe some thoughts on why “umm no.”?

        1
        Reply
        • dynamite drop in monty

          7 years ago

          Luxury tax issues. Not wise to add another behemoth contract to the rotation. Team has more pressing needs.

          Shall we continue?

          1
          Reply
        • KillahAC

          7 years ago

          We need more pitching. We were so inconsistent.

          1
          Reply
        • John Murray

          7 years ago

          I actually considered Jake for the Sox, rather than signing JDM and/or Eric Hosmer. Sox do not have the current luxury tax issues the Yankees or Dodgers have, which is only an issue because of what figures to be spent in the 2018/19 off-season. But the Sox have Ramirez off the books next year and Sandoval the year after. And as they’ve signed Moreland at a very affordable rate, is it unreasonable to assume they could sign Todd Frazier, Jake Arrieta and maybe even Jay Bruce for a value not far off from what they would pay for JDM?

          1
          Reply
        • jrwhite21

          7 years ago

          But is this really the guy you want?

          Reply
        • weatherwiz

          7 years ago

          I honestly wouldn’t mind another top of the line type SP. You can never have enough pitching and despite the fact the Sox finished in the top 5 in ERA the pitching is a little tough to trust. As far as luxury tax stuff is concerned…who cares? It’s the Red Sox…they can certainly afford it. We aren’t a small market team that needs to worry about stuff like this.

          Reply
        • weatherwiz

          7 years ago

          Also, until this organization can start developing some SP they’re going to have to either overspend on the market or empty the farm in trades.

          Reply
  3. Bart

    7 years ago

    Angels

    Reply
    • padam

      7 years ago

      I hope not. Signing players to contracts that should never be is something the Angels excel at (i.e.: Pujols, Hamilton). They essentially pay for past performance.

      1
      Reply
    • halos101

      7 years ago

      no thank you

      Reply
  4. dxsloparr

    7 years ago

    Doesn’t every team that signed one of these contracts feel embarrassed for doing it?

    Maybe not Scherzer, and obviously Beltre was a steal at $80mil.

    It seems to me that teams are wising up to these ridiculous contracts.

    1
    Reply
    • timyanks

      7 years ago

      st louis doesn’t

      Reply
      • CubsTroll

        7 years ago

        Second that

        Reply
        • seth3120

          7 years ago

          Cubs signed Heyward thank god they bailed the cardinals out of that one lol

          Reply
      • barkinghumans77

        7 years ago

        Holliday definitely performed well during that contract.

        Reply
        • SeanStL

          7 years ago

          Holiday was okay, I wouldn’t say he met expectations.

          Reply
  5. Marytown1

    7 years ago

    Please not the Brewers. we can’t afford a dead weight contract.

    3
    Reply
    • Robertowannabe

      7 years ago

      Why the down v0tes? If it a 6 year deal, there will be 3-4 years of dead weight to the contract. Look at his regression from 16 to 17.

      2
      Reply
      • davbee

        7 years ago

        And pitchers never rebound from an off year?

        1
        Reply
        • Robertowannabe

          7 years ago

          He has not been dominant for 2 years. Yes a pitcher can rebound but one also must consider this contract will start in his age 32 season. He already lost some speed on the pitches. going into his age 34 season, I would bet he would not be worth ~$25-26M a year for 4 more years. That is where the dead weight comes in and teams other than those in NY, Chicago or LA can afford to pay a guy that kind of money without production to match. He will not be able to match the contract with the production, hence a dead weight contract.

          Reply
        • newagescamartist

          7 years ago

          Decreased velocity and control are huge red flags.

          Reply
    • Logjammer D"Baggagecling

      7 years ago

      Are you paying him 20 mil a year ?Why do you say we?

      Reply
      • JKB 2

        7 years ago

        @wrek

        Because he is a fan thats why so its “we” when you discuss your team jerkoff

        1
        Reply
  6. padam

    7 years ago

    Someone who will regret it.

    10
    Reply
  7. j27roenick

    7 years ago

    Anytime Boras starts crying publicly about how big market teams aren’t spending money on his guys, they should show him this list of contracts he’s gotten for (mostly terrible) clients. My god. You might as well put Hosmer on this list now and change Boras’ nickname to Scott “Destroyer of Worlds” Boras.

    2
    Reply
    • AntiNephilim

      7 years ago

      He only gets it because someone is willing to sign off on it. Blame Boras all you want but he is always selling. Although, I think he will cry wolf too many times and his “big prize” will be sitting unsigned when ST commences.

      2
      Reply
      • j27roenick

        7 years ago

        I don’t necessarily begrudge Boras for doing his job. I’m just saying that when a salesman’s accessories have a success rate of like 15 percent, maybe the potential buyers will finally figure out a better place/strategy for doing business.

        As a Cubs fan, the Kyle Lohse thing still irks me because the Crew had no business adding a SP at that time because they weren’t even on the fringe of contention, and it added a late first-round pick for the Cards as compensation as well. Still mind-boggling to this day.

        Reply
        • eilexx

          7 years ago

          Boras’ clients have a lot better success rate than 15%. He is an excellent agent, and does the job his players ask of him. It’s funny that so many people begrudge MLB players for making the most money possible when we all do it too. It’s not like any of us negotiate pay less than we want simply to be nice. We take the most we can get in the situation. Besides, if every player decided to suddenly taken 15% less, do you really believe that the costs of going to/watching a game would decrease? Not a chance. The money is there, it’s going to be there regardless, so if you’re in position to negotiate for as much as possible, do it.

          3
          Reply
        • j27roenick

          7 years ago

          That’s not the point I’m making, ellexx. I’m talking about that list of players above that had tepid interest at the rates Boras got them after the New Year. Again, like I said before, I don’t begrudge Boras for doing his job (or the players for wanting to get as much money as possible). I realize it’s his job to get the most money for his clients. But why so many teams (at least that’s been the case until this offseason) clamor to pay HUGE money for players’ decline years has mystified me for a long time.

          Hosmer is the obvious candidate this offseason for this type of head-scratching deal. Here’s a guy who has been worth 9 WAR in the past 6 years (about one year of Mike Trout), only plays 1B and wants $200M guaranteed? GTFOH with that crap. Since Hosmer broke in to MLB in 2011, he actually has accrued 1.6 fewer WAR than the lead man on this list (Prince), and exactly the same amount as Tex (No. 3 on this list), both of whom have been nonfactors on MLB rosters for multiple seasons.

          Jake has his own red flags. I’m not against baseball players getting paid to perform. I’m just not sure why so many front office executives have been willing to pay for past performances instead of projected performance, or in Hosmer’s case, lackluster performance.

          Reply
        • teufelshunde4

          7 years ago

          Track record & name recognition.. FO are getting smarter about it.

          Reply
  8. muskie73

    7 years ago

    The Arrieta family reportedly was in Seattle over the holidays:

    twitter.com/MrsArrieta49

    Probably means nothing … or not.

    Reply
    • AntiNephilim

      7 years ago

      Dipoto might as well sign him. He’s wrecked the farm system, spent money and done nothing to fix their pitching woes so he should do this on his way out of town.

      1
      Reply
      • muskie73

        7 years ago

        A Jake Arrieta signing would be out of character for Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, whose nine offseason free agent contracts have totaled only about $62 million over 12 years in the 27 months since Dipoto took the helm in the Mariner front office..

        The most expensive outlay was the recent $17 million over two years for righthander Juan Nicasio and the highest AAV was the one-year, $12 million contract for righthander Hisashi Iwakuma in December 2015.

        1
        Reply
  9. natelowda2

    7 years ago

    Hopefully the cardinals, do we don’t struggle against him anymore.

    Reply
  10. jacobsigel1025

    7 years ago

    I like the fits with both Los Angeles teams but only contingent if Yu doesn’t return for the Dodgers

    Reply
    • fox471 Dave

      7 years ago

      Want Yu back! Yes, WS was a disaster. No one is sure why. But, if he is truly healthy, he will have the Dodgers in WS in 2018.

      Reply
  11. MNTwinsFan

    7 years ago

    Twins

    Reply
  12. Caseys Partner

    7 years ago

    Yakult Swallows

    2
    Reply
  13. DannyQ3913

    7 years ago

    Phillies can afford to waste the money on him and not worry about it.

    Reply
    • Caseys Partner

      7 years ago

      Not if they want to sign Harper and Machado.

      After they are signed the Phillies will know how much money they have to waste.

      Reply
      • herecomethephillies2018

        7 years ago

        They could sign Arrieta and still have money left for Harper and Machado IF they decide they both want to play in Philly (not sure why you act in every thread like it’s a foregone conclusion that both are signing with the Phillies).

        That being said, they’d be much better served going after Darvish instead of Arrieta. Waaaaay too many warning signs with Arrieta’s peripherals to warrant a long-term deal.

        Reply
        • Caseys Partner

          7 years ago

          It’s a forgone conclusion that no MLB team has the salary space to stop the Phillies from signing both Harper and Machado. Only John Middleton can stop Harper and Machado from wearing Phillies uniforms in 2019 by stealing their salaries instead of signing them.

          As for Darvish, of course he would be better than Arrieta, but Middleton agrees with Yuli Gurriel.

          Reply
  14. angels in Anaheim

    7 years ago

    Only four guys from that list have done well after the big contract.

    1
    Reply
  15. Robertowannabe

    7 years ago

    Whichever team signs him will regret it big time. He might have 1 or 2 more good years left but he will not be dominating like he was a couple of years ago and some team will be left paying a ton of money for a guy that will not be able to compete at the level the money calls for.

    1
    Reply
  16. balloonknots

    7 years ago

    I see brewers, twins and Rockies as the ones mostly interested in pitching

    Reply
  17. timyanks

    7 years ago

    i see jake having to settle for a pillow contract

    1
    Reply
    • Solaris601

      7 years ago

      I do as well. In fact most of the remaining free agents will probably end up with 1 or 2 year deals. I think that if the Giants don’t land Billy Hamilton, they’ll probably wait out Carlos Gómez until he settles for a 1-year deal for less than $10M.

      Reply
  18. njbirdsfan

    7 years ago

    Is it just possible that the guy isn’t as great as he thinks he is? Apparently diminishing velocity and a douchey beard is enough for these clowns to think they’re worth $100M+.

    2
    Reply
  19. caseyrc24

    7 years ago

    Have you seen his break on pitches though I wish I had that Sinker or slider

    Reply
    • fieldsj2

      7 years ago

      I bet he wishes he still had that sinker and slider too.

      Reply
  20. halos101

    7 years ago

    Arrietas gonna be the last big fish available imo. Him and moose seem to have no market, and boras isn’t gonna settle. I have no clue where arrieta will go but i bet it’s to a suprise team that makes a last second move that probably isn’t the wisest move.

    Reply
  21. daveineg

    7 years ago

    Brewers get him late. My guess is their current offer is 4 years and $90 million and it won’t take much more than that.

    Reply
    • baumer16

      7 years ago

      As a Brewers fan I would do that deal.

      1
      Reply
      • JKB 2

        7 years ago

        The Cubs probably would take him back for that as well

        Reply
  22. cubbies95

    7 years ago

    Gotta be the Rangers right? Need to replace Darvish, good enough to contend for a playoff spot but without a true Ace won’t even make the Wild Cars game, and they have the money to spend this off season instead of next off season. Harper and Machado don’t seem like ideal fits for Texas anyways so spend now on Arrieta and create a contending team yourself. Plus, pretty sure Arrieta was born in Texas…atleast know he went to TCU so to go back home towards the final stretch of his career would be an intriguing proposition

    Reply
  23. MadThinker

    7 years ago

    At some point, 1 of these players that REFUSED the Qualifying Offer (& now has draft compensation attached to signings over a particular level) and can not get a deal they like will take a 1 yr deal for a larger money amount that does not trigger the draft picks be lost by the signing club. Almost like a pillow contract..

    If during or after the season, they want to sign an extension with that club, so be it. If not, the player re-enters the free agent market next season but no longer has to worry about a Qualifying Offer (or deal with it ever again)..

    Reply
  24. anthonyd4412

    7 years ago

    Declining velocity, walk rate up and on the wrong side of 30. He’s a #2 SP at best (this coming from a Cub fan)

    Reply
    • JKB 2

      7 years ago

      I agree Anthony. He is a solid #3 in my opinion and at best a #2 like you suggested

      Reply
  25. socalbaseballdude

    7 years ago

    I see the Astros stepping up & signing him.

    Reply
  26. Logjammer D"Baggagecling

    7 years ago

    Why are the brewers on the poll? That makes no sense. I think the Cubs are a sleeper team. They sneak in and get him for 4/110 with a ton of incentives that a 5 and 6th year kick in with total IP wins cy young voting and winning it as well.

    Reply
    • cubbies95

      7 years ago

      Good lord a 4yr/110 mil contract for a declining pitcher? IDK what you smokin but I don’t want none

      Reply
  27. fannclub6

    7 years ago

    Arietta will be one of the biggest free agent busts this year. His best years are behind him.

    1
    Reply
  28. cubbies95

    7 years ago

    Rangers, book it

    Reply
  29. wrigleyhawkeye

    7 years ago

    Why weren’t the Marlins on the list 😉

    Reply
  30. citizen

    7 years ago

    Apart from Soriano beltre, and scherzer, though it’s too early to tell with scherzers contract, the majority of these contracts have been a bust, it’s no wonder teams are holding out.

    1
    Reply
    • barkinghumans77

      7 years ago

      Matt Holliday performed great for StL during his contract

      Reply
  31. Sarah Brecht

    7 years ago

    I don’t want the Cards to sign Arrieta necessarily, but I’m not at all comfortable with the starting rotation as it stands right now. They need an innings eater IMO. A trade for Archer would be my first choice, but I like Darvish too. I sure as hell don’t want him going to the Cubbies while we stand pat.

    Reply

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