6:35pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag passes along further details on Chatwood’s deal (Twitter links). He’ll earn $12.5MM apiece in each of the first two years and $13MM in the third.
By operation of an escalator provision, that $13MM salary for 2020 will climb to $15MM if he earns an All-Star nod in each of the next two seasons or receives one Cy Young vote in either of those years. A single Cy Young vote in each of those two seasons would mean a $17MM salary for 2020. And Chatwood will also receive a $500K bonus if he’s traded.
12:29pm: The exact number on the deal is a $38MM guarantee, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).
12:20pm: The Cubs announced on Thursday that they’ve agreed to a three-year contract with free agent right-hander Tyler Chatwood. The 27-year-old Chatwood, a client of Excel Sports Management, will receive “around $40MM” on the contract, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).
Chatwood, who’ll turn 28 in a couple of weeks, was one of the youngest free agents on the market. It’s a significant payday for a player that has yet to experience sustained success at the big league level, but the right-hander was a popular free agent target due to a number of appealing secondary metrics including his velocity, ground-ball rate and spin rate. Chatwood posted a 4.69 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 in 147 2/3 innings with the Rockies this past season, though in addition to his age and promising peripherals, he’s long performed considerably better away from the hitters’ haven of Coors Field.
In the past two years since returning from a second career Tommy John surgery, Chatwood has started 52 games (in addition to eight relief appearances) and totaled 305 2/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA. Those numbers don’t exactly leap out, but they also feature a dramatic home/road split: a 6.07 ERA and 21 homers allowed at Coors Field and a 2.57 ERA with 14 homers allowed on the road.
As I noted when sorting through some free-agent starters by individual skill set, Chatwood represents the hardest-throwing starter on the market and also boasts the best ground-ball rate and one of the lowest hard-contact rates in free agency. He also posted the 29th-highest spin rate on his four-seam fastball and the fifth-best spin rate on his curveball, per Statcast (min. 100 of each pitch type).
That said, the near-$13MM average annual value of the deal comes in well north of the three-year deal projected by MLBTR when ranking Chatwood 29th on our Top 50 list of the available free agents. The contract serves as a reminder that now, more than ever, teams are willing to look beyond traditional metrics like earned run average and beyond a player’s past performance and instead pay for projected output in the coming years.
The Cubs have a clear need in the rotation with both Jake Arrieta and John Lackey departing via free agency. He’ll slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana at present, though it still seems likely that Chicago will add another arm to help round out the starting five. As a finalist for Nippon Professional Baseball star Shohei Ohtani, the Cubs could find out in the very near future if he’ll be the final piece to that puzzle. If not, they’ll presumably hit the trade market and explore further free agent additions at next week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Interesting
Just waiting to hear from cub fans on this one. I’m sure we are going to hear what a genius Theo is.
Jed Hoyer is the GM.
Yeah he is but all the credit seems to go to Theo for better or worse
GM is only a title. While Hoyer has a big voice in all discussions, Epstein makes the final decisions on everything – for better or worse.
On the surface, there’s nothing wrong with this move. Chatwood is a relatively inexpensive option for the 5th spot in the rotation. He has decent peripherals, and it’s never a bad thing to get a guy away from Coors Field.
The larger implications of this are below the surface, though. Does it mean they’re out on Ohtani? Possible. The only possible way this doesn’t signal and end to Ohtani is if the Cubs are considering a 6-man rotation…
I say that because the Cubs allocated money to land two starters this off-season. And while none of us know the figure, it’s only logical to assume that the math changes dramatically if they land Ohtani. If they sign Ohtani, then they have a lot more money to spend on the other starter before reaching that allocated dollar figure. If they don’t sign Ohtani, then they need to spread the money more evenly to fit two starters into that budget. But how can they make that determination before knowing about Ohtani? That they seem to have made that decision makes me believe Ohtani informed the Cubs that they’re out…
How the cubs were even in on Ohtani is amazing considering he wants West Coast and a small market. Has he not seen a map?
Or they simply pulled the trigger after missing out on another target: Mikolas.
The Cubs needed two starters regardless of whether Ohtani is one of them, and given Ohtani’s situation, I doubt the FO counted on him signing. In other words, I’m fairly certain that they had an amount in mind for starting pitching, likely somewhere around $25-$35M.
They’ve only signed one starter, and whether or not they sign Ohtani probably doesn’t change much. I would think it is likelier than not that they are planning to go to a 6 man rotation if they do sign him, so it’s not like they’d suddenly be in a dilemma if they sign another starter and then Ohtani signs.
Chatwood was one of the guys they’ve been after. Ohtani or not, he was going to be one of the guys. Once Mikolas was off the board, this becomes an even easier to understand signing. This FO likes to get something done as a safety net. Now they won’t be pressured into overpaying for Cobb or giving up too much in a trade out of desperation.
@justinept
OMG this does not “Signal” anything on Ohtani what are you blabbing about?
They need several starters. If Ohtani chooses the Cubs the Cubs will be very happy and pay him the $300K and $20M posting fee. They do not need to wait on Ohtani to make moves.
@mikep
Ohtani never said he wanted only a small market and west coast. Only Brian Cashman said that.
Ohtani has numerous large markets on his list and several non west coast teams. So that speaks to the absurd comments in the media saying the opposite only because Brian Cashman said it since he was embarrassed he shunned the Yankees
Yes mikep Ohtani can read a map just fine
Let’s look at some reasons I came to my conclusion.
The Cubs have two rotation spots available this off-season. Could the Cubs conceivably go to a 6-man rotation? Sure, why not? But no team has ever deployed that strategy for an entire season. Think about this: I say the Cubs are out on Ohtani, a very real possibility given the long shot odds the Cubs had of signing him int he first place. You respond by saying the Cubs need ‘several starters,’ which would only be true if the Cubs deployed a strategy that has never been used before in the 130 year history of the sport, and somehow you come to the conclusion that I’m babbling…
Now figure this, the Cubs have been looking toward this off-season for two years now, knowing that Arrieta and Lackey would likely be leaving. They budgeted for this. While we’ll never know exactly how much they budgeted, we’d be naive to think it was anything less than $$30 million – though I think the number was probably closer to $35 million given the cost of free agent pitching.
What if one of those pitchers was Ohtani, a guy who would make just $545,000 in salary? Doesn’t that change the math as to how much you can spend on that other pitcher? It literally puts you in play for Darvish and Arrieta. But by signing Chatwood for an AAV of $13 million, you’re taking away that possibility. You’re actually making it so that your best case scenario is Chatwood and Ohtani, two pitchers who have never had any sustained success in the big leagues (Ohtani for obvious reasons), and you’re hoping those two can be key contributors to a World Series winner? Come on. I don’t buy that for a second. I don’t buy for a second that the Cubs would go that route, spending less than half the budget they allocated, unless they knew they were out on Ohtani.
Look, I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Cubs get Ohtani. I hope they also sign Cobb and deploy a 6-man rotation. I’ll hold out hope for that. But logically, it’s very tough to hold out hopoe for Ohtani when this signing screams of the Cubs shifting to Plan B.
He also wants less travel. And the cubs fit that perfectly. Shorter travel to everywhere basically.
@JKB, several? He only has 2 that aren’t on the west coast. The Cubs and Rangers. Both are long shots.
Justinept, it doesn’t mean they’ll have a 6 man rotation at all.. if they get Ohtani, then that’ll be their 5th starter.. they could then simply spend money on relievers which they desperately need more than a would be 6th starter.. the cubs have 40 mill to spend to reach last year’s payroll. May actually be 46 mill now that rondon is a goner.. so now after this signing they’re down to roughly 36 mill. They could sign Reed, morrow and another good reliever and still have 16+ mill left. If they get Ohtani, then they’re set, maybe they sign a mediocre pitcher for depth. But no way they go to a 6 man rotation. If they don’t get Ohtani, I still highly doubtful they sign another quality starting pitcher. They will look for a young arm on the trade market. I’m hoping for Fulmer from Detroit. Young, controllable but will cost a good penny. They still need a center fielder also. They may be a sleeper team in Cain. They have no leadoff hitter and they desperately need one. Cain would fix both of those problems. I assume he’ll be signing around 14-18 mill a year so that’ll work out perfectly. My dream is to trade schwarber to Boston for benintendi. I’d give up the power and .250 average of schwarbs for benintendi s defense and speed so he can lead off. They’ll both have near the same obp, and benintendi will be a 20-25 Homer guy himself, so at most they lose out on 10-15 homers but probably make up for it on defense and on the bases.
Whole point is that I think this signals them being out on Ohtani. For me to believe they’re still in on him, I need to believe one of two things to be true:
1- the Cubs are trying to win the World Series with two absolute question marks in their rotation
Or 2- the Cubs are looking to become the first team to deploy a 6-man rotation.
Basically, negligence or history. Those are the options. Nothing else is really on the table here…
Agreed. I think Chatwood is underrated if you look at his home/away splits. Plus the NL West has some decent offensive fire power. Getting him in the prime of his career for a few years is also a plus. Real win for the cubs.
I don’t like it. I like Cobb better. Unless you still Sign Cobb . But I wanted Arrieta/Ohtani AND Cobb.
No thanks to Arrieta
I dont think they could afford Cobb AND Darvish/Arrieta. I think the only way to land one of the two top-tier options would’ve been if they hit the jackpot with Ohtani.
Not knowing their budget, it’s possible that Chatwood keeps them in play for a top-tier option, but given their long-term budget concerns, I think anything short of Ohtani prevents them from landing a big fish here. Once Ohtani signs, I expect the Cubs to put on a full court press for Cobb
You poor thing! Pout a little harder maybe they’ll trade for Kreshaw too!
Chatwood will be mid reliever anyway. They can still get Cobb and Ohtani.
Middle reliever? For $13 million? Not a chance. There was clearly a market for the guy, and there’s no way he signs with the Cubs if they don’t guarantee him the chance to start
No genius but ok move as long as he’s not their only addition to the rotation. Teams don’t usually allocate $13M to a 5th starter however so I’m nervous this may be it.
Three years ago, Jason Hammel have the Cubs a discount when he came back on what was essentially a 2yr/$20 mil deal. Prices have gone up since then. And again, that was considered a discount!
and non cub fans will declare this the end to the franchise.
This move is logical bc SP is needed with in the organization. His ceiling is decently high and the cubs have the money to pay to play. Is it the best thing since sliced bread? Absolutely not but it’s progress within our window of contention. We’ll take it.
The Shohei Otani thing seems odd to me. I just don’t see it happening unless he visits Wrigley.
Jake isn’t coming it’s a bad deal.
Alex Cobb still makes sense.
And to answer your question yes Theo is a genius.
Huge over pay. imo
It’s high, but if you want your man early, you gotta bowl ’em over.
Definitely an overpay, but I don’t see the money being a huge issue. I don’t see them diving into the FA pool for big $ guys over the next three years.
How is it an overpay. You dont think Theo knows the market. This guy was in demand. 27 years old and 2.57 ERA past 2 years outside of Coors Field this is a good deal.
Of course Theo knows the market. Who said he doesn’t? I said over pay as in he won’t be worth the money they pay him, mostly bc he has problems staying healthy.
If you base this signing on his numbers away from Coors field, which you should, they’re getting him well below his value. They paid Lackey $32 over two seasons to be as efficient as my grandmother lobbing dead pheasants at delinquent children. Chatwood will easily be more reliable than my perfectly reasonable comparison at $10m less than they would have paid Lackey over the same span. This signing makes perfect sense to Chicago, to Chatwood, and to anyone who looks at more than the ERA column.
You’re basing lackeys effectiveness just on this year. He was solid in 2016.
Not in playoffs. Lackey was a 4 so he started in payoff rotation and was brutal. Chatwood will be a 5 so he won’t even pitch in playoffs. I’m guessing darvish Cobb or Lynn . What else is out there? Cc and Vargas are old and Chatwood is signed through 2020. Hendricks Quintana and Chatwood all young. If they missed on Chatwood and then lost out on top 4 what would they do? Montgomery and butler? Then scrambling for bullpen arms. Has to be better than Brett Anderson was!
Holy Chat on his salary! Ton of cash for a 5th starter
Not really. Dodgers are paying more than that for their 8th starter.
This is their way of improving their rotation?
Keep in mind that he plays half his games in Colorado so he’s bound to get knocked around. Don’t be so hasty.
He will almost certainly be better than Lackey was in 2017.
Very much agree with both of the above statements. Solid addition to the back end of the rotation
I think that’s a given
Exactly, so yes, this is their way of improving their rotationi.
Is that pasta?
Ravioli, ravioli, give me the rotationi.
Sounds delicious
don’t forget the spingettii
Road ERA in starts outside of Coors Field was below 3.00, if I recall correctly. He might be the best value SP signing of the entire offseason. This was an awesome signing for the Cubs.
3.49, but that’s more than solid.
Not to mention the 58% ground ball rate and the fact that he throws 95.
Road FIP though is 4.79. Very meh
Alright so it was sub 3.50, which is still a FIRE road ERA. I can’t find contract details yet, but I’ll bet you he was cheaper than a 3.50 ERA starter should be because of the Coors struggles. I’m not a Cubs fan, but this was an extremely shrewd move by Theo.
The FIP is discouraging, but I think the Cubs are digging deeper, using the metrics mentioned above like spin rate and fastball velocity.
Could be a good change of scenery guy in more ways than one. Getting out of Coors is huge, but having a different plan/different voice working with him could be impactful.
There’s a lot more info available than FIP now. Even just looking at his batted ball numbers away from Coors, Chatwood is a soft contact guy that generates tons of grounders. Cubs have good infield defense.
Cubs have a solid defense to carry that and he won’t be at Coors for 1/2 his games. His FIP will be lower away from Coors and his ERA will be better with a better defense behind him.
wow. 1.69 road in 2016!
Not to mention that is road ERA back in ‘16 was below 2.00 I believe
his*
Well… the best value signing will likely be Ohtani. But I hear ya
OK, you’re technically correct, but Ohtani’s an anomaly. I’ll amend my statement: best value signing outside of the meager salary Ohtani is limited to for the next two years.
Ha. Fair enough. And thanks for being a good sport about that cause I was really just being a jerk with that comment!
Even with Ohtani, I think Mikolas could also win that award. I’ve been wrong once or twice in my life but I don’t think Chatwood will be a huge deal. He should do better with his home and away splits, but I see him as a upper 3 era guy.
That’s alright for a 4/5th starter.
Yeah it is, but not for the best deal of the off season as someone claimed.
Road ERA was 1.25 in 2017. Solid signing for the cubs. They’re now the favorite in the NL central
Were they ever not the favorites in the NL central?
As of today yes they are favorites, by the end of the off-season though it will probablybe a tossup with the cardinals
That could be true. I sorta see Cards management saying we tried. And then finishing 4th.
You must of forgotten this is a guy who has never exceeded 160 innings in his career. He can’t stay healthy
He’s been healthy for two seasons (27 starts in 2016, 33 starts in 2017). He lost 2015 to Tommy John surgery, but since then has proved he’s about as durable as the next pitcher. Which, obviously, is always a bit of a gamble, but it’s not a black mark against Chatwood.
Chatwood started 25 games in 2017 due to injuries. He has been on the disabled list at least once every year of his career. That’s a black mark
Hey let’s not forget he led the NL in losses also.
Losses? This isn’t 1981 anymore.
Do you even read the article 6.07 home era, 2.57 away 2017.
Chatwood could be the next Arrieta.
He’ll have to vastly improve his command. Can be a real walk-machine at times. Goes along fine for a couple innings then wham, walks 5 guys in two innings and is gone. Interesting arm though.
Thats what Eddie Butler was supposed to be last year too…
he was DFA’d chattwood got $40
It improves it greatly
Well right now the Cubs have empty spots in the rotation so getting someone to fill a spot is improving.
From a Rockies fan, he is a very underrated pitcher, he just couldn’t pitch at Coors. He’s got a 2.50 ERA on the road
Yes its a huge improvement
Yes. Are you dense?
Does this mean they know they’re out of the Ohtani running?
No, that’s not what it means. They need two additions anyways. This would be one. This signals that they aren’t bringing Lackey back.
that’s really too bad. I always liked lackey.
Really? Guy left his wife while she was fighting breast cancer..
I’m a Brewers fan so yeah I liked him on the cubs. especially when he’d give up a home run and look all pissed at his team.
Lackey was the sore spot on the team. Always had a terrible attitude, completely went against the grain of the fun-loving young Cubs.
I would bet that was sarcasm.
Well they needed two starters going into next year. With loosing Jake and Lackey
No they still have another rotation spot to fill
Essentially, if they lose out on Ohtani, I believe they’ll have some serious discussions about bringing Arrieta back.
Or they will shoot for any of the other loads of FA pitching.
Well, Cobb sounded like he was all but guaranteed to go to the Cubs. So no room for Ohtani?
I would say yes. Because now you have Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-Chatwood-Montgomery. Why spend ~$13M per on a #5 (which is what Chatwood would be if they signed Ohtani) when you need that money to sign a stud closer or 2 very reliable relievers? My two cents.
I mean, Lackey was their #5 last year and he made ~13M lol. This is nothing new for Theo
Lackey was their #4 going into the season (Lester-Arrieta-Hendricks-Lackey-Brett Anderson).
Montgomery won’t be getting regular starts. He’ll be long reliever getting some spot starts/depth.
First Montgomery is not in the rotation. And of course you spend $13 M on a number five is Ohtani signs and pushes him to number 5 so what? That would be great. Of course they still want Ohtani. We shall see if Ohtani chooses us
This never got any background coverage bc everyone was so preoccupied with Ohtani lol
Chatwood is pretty good away from Coors, was hoping the Phillies pick him up
I agree. I really thought this would be the Phillies big signing this offseason. Where do we go for starting pitching now? Jason Vargas?
his stats away from Coors field is interesting. nice signing
As a lifelong cards fan, this is an awesome signing. If cubbie fans would look at his splits away from CO they are really good. He is a very serviable 3/4/5 type guy. He had one of 2 TJ surgeries but dude came back well for it last year… Dunno about $$ something none of us fans can control but he will be a very good addition to rotation.
He is no Lizard King
I was really hoping the Rangers would be in on Chat.
Same. Hope Minor ends up being better but was really interested in Chatwood
I thought he would go for 3 years 30 mil. But still a great signing. He’s worth it
3/38 could very easily be an overpay, especially because he’s injury-prone. I liked him at anything less than 3/30.
Still happy I get to watch him pitch for my team all year and hoping the cubs catch lightning in a bottle. Fingers crossed.
Great signing. He’s an analytics darling with the spin rates and stuff. Charlie Morton 2.0 from last year. I.e great value signing.
His road ERA over there last 2 seasons is just 2.57 in 157+ IP
I agree but he is going for quite a bit more than Morton won’t be as much room for surplus
In 2016 Chatwood posted incredible numbers on the road, for the record, he just didn’t know how to pitch at Coors and didn’t seem to have a great attitude about it. Otherwise, he’s a borderline great starter with premier stuff.
Great starters throw 200 innings consistently with an ERA at 3.00 or less. Good starters throw 170-18o with an ERA of 3.50 to 4.00. What has Chatwood done?
I hadn’t thought of it that way. Why doesn’t every team only sign hall-of-fame caliber players? He’s not a Cy Young shoe-in, so they may as well just go with a three-man rotation.
I didn’t say he is great I said borderline implying he could be great if he’s not pitching at Coors.
Compiled the best (tied for) road ERA over the last two years.
Say goodbye to Ohtani! Disneyland has already got the welcome sign up, Welcome to Anaheim Ohtani
The Angels are possibly last in the running for Ohtani, don’t get your hopes up. He’s probably going to San Diego.
give me a reason the ohtani won’t want to sign with he angels
Wow, that is literally double what I expected him to get
He was going to get at least 3/22 from somebody.
Now sign Cobb! Then we are good on starters!
Yes, and without having to deal anybody off the MLB roster. The Cubs still need to address the bullpen and also figure out who will be their leadoff hitter in 2018.
Fair deal for both the team and player. I was hoping the Twins would grab him.
Wow, what’s going on? First, Matt Swartz’s little arbitration model is off on some potential non-tenders, and now MLBTR was way off on this prediction as well, predicting only three years and $20m total. Hmmmm, interesting.
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free…
I remember one trade rumors writers say he had to fight to get others up to 3/20 for a prediction. That always seemed way low to me. He’s better than Pelfrey and Pelfrey got 2/16 a couple of years ago.
Exactly; whoever it was (Steve?), hopefully Tim Dierkes gives him a raise and fires one of the other writers to pay for it.
Chatwood got $38 million, more than double the years and AAV than Pelfrey. For a guy that has never pitched more than 160 innings in a season, that is scary money.
No, it is not. This is not 1980.
I also noticed this and thought the projections were lowballing Chatwood.
Some serious dollars for a free agent starting pitcher with mediocre stats. Let’s hope his numbers will continue to play significantly better away from Coors Field. Chris Bosio is no longer around to assist him like he did with Jake Arrieta. Chatwood will be a good early test case for new pitching coach Kevin Hickey.
Jim Hickey?
Yeah, another brain cramp. Kevin Hickey was a Chicago native who actually pitched in MLB including on the South Side with the White Sox and sadly passed away in 2012 at the way too young age of 56.
Jim Hickey is the new Cub pitching coach, a career minor league pitcher who was drafted by the the White Sox in 1983. He’s been an MLB pitching coach since 2004 with the Astros, Rays and now the Cubs.
Don’t forget Jim Benedict too
Is Kevin Hickey Jim Hickeys brother?
No, although ironically both were born in Chicago with Kevin about 5-1/2 years older than Jim. Each also signed their first pro contracts with the White Sox as amatuer free agents. Kevin also had a surviving brother named James (Jim) who worked for the City of Chicago.
I think the Cubs are hoping he turns out like the Charlie Morton signing for the Astros. When you are a bigger market team you can take those risks.
I’m more concerned about the 3 years than the money given to him. But FWIW, he’s has a higher ERA+ than Cobb or Lynn since 2013.
@chri
First if all half his games were at Coors field where he had 6.4 era so how can you compare his overall era that is inflated by Coors to Cobb or Lynn … by the way
ERA plus is park adjusted. You want a high one anyways
I don’t get it. Only thing I can figure is the Cubs are smart and think they can fix him. His K:BB ratio was exactly the same at Coors as it was on the road over the past two seasons (1.6). In that same span he had the second-worst K:BB ratio of the 67 pitchers who logged 300 innings.
Check the play-by-plays and identify when he tends to start walking people. I think it’s around 4-6 innings into a start when he normally dishes out like 3 walks in close proximity. He needs a good pitching coach or a shorter leash.
His worst innings per K:BB ratio were the 2nd (0.74) and 3rd (1.31) frames last season. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, so if they can get him to throw more strikes he’s interesting. They must believe they can help him out in that regard.
The Cubs have good infield defense, so I wouldn’t mind if Chatwood sacrificed a couple K/9 for a couple BB/9 as long as he can still generate the same amount of grounders.
Solid. Always good to get a guy who can go every fifth day. Now if they get Otani, watch out MLB. Lester, Otani, Hendricks, Chatwood, Quintana is s solid 5!
Good move from a Cardinals fan. Chatwood is young enough, this could really turn out to be a great pick up.
Great…… another Eddie Butler. I will say/point out though that his ERA split between home (Coors Field) and away games is pretty staggering.
In Colorado he has a career 5.25 ERA in 59 starts, 68 total games, and 332.1 IP
Everywhere else (away games) he has a 3.31 ERA in 54 starts, 62 total games, and 315.1 IP
Main gripe with him is he walks A TON of batters. That and despite entering his age 28 season in 2018, the most innings he’s pitched in a single season came in 2016 when he tossed 158 innings….. he’s a SIX YEAR veteran and he has yet to eclipse 160 IP in a season.
He MIGHT be good judging by his home/away splits….. but they better have WAY better moves than this planned. To me the easiest and best solution to the rotation was just going out and signing both Lynn and Cobb. Then for primarily bullpen help sign Mike Minor (among others). That would then give them a rotation of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Lynn and Cobb with Montgomery and Minor as potential fill-ins should anyone in the rotation get hurt since Montgomery has already done a good enough job when called upon in that role, and Minor also has starting experience under his belt as well too.
BUT Minor already signed elsewhere because the Cubs were too busy jerking one out over this Ohtani PROSPECT instead of focusing on proven ML talent to improve their bullpen and fill out their rotation.
Sure there are plenty of fish left in free agent sea, so to speak, but with them missing on Minor and now this…. THIS signing I can’t help but get the feeling this is going to be a dismal, pathetic excuse of an offseason. Like when they signed Edwin Jackson for $15M/season (4 year $52M deal but with an $8M signing bonus…. meaning $60 mil for a 4 year deal all together) because Anibal Sanchez, who is/was a WAY better pitcher, was “too expensive” at $16.8M.
They had/have enough money to re-sign Davis and then go out and sign Cobb, Lynn, Reed, Holland or Morrow, and Jake McGee. With them missing on Minor who is a lefty in addition to being an apparent SOLID reliever who also could be a swing man starter, they HAVE to go out and sign McGee as I see him being the best lefty available as far as the free agent bullpen market goes. As far as replicating what Mike Minor would’ve brought to the table in his versatility if needed I think they HAVE to go out and sign Brandon Morrow now. Primarily for bullpen duties but if needed can make spot starts/fill-in if a starter gets injured.
The Cubs have AMPLE money to do whatever is necessary to give them the best pitching staff possible starting and relief-wise. Last year their payroll was about 175M. With Arrieta, Lackey, Montero, Uehara, Duensing, Rondon, and potentially Davis off the books that shaves a ton of cash off the books….. to the tune of about $68-69M they all made in 2017. So that means as of this moment they have only about $105-110M wrapped up in payroll. IMO they could EASILY go up to $194,999,999 in payroll…. right before the luxury tax threshold. So technically they could….. COULD go out and sign BOTH Arrieta and Darvish and still have about $30M to play with in adding bullpen help. Say, re-sign Davis and sign Reed and McGee. Rotation of Lester, Darvish, Quintana, Arrieta, Hendricks…… good god. Bullpen of Davis, Reed, Edwards, Strop, Wilson, Grimm, McGee, and Montgomery…. not too shabby. Hell…. with those additions they still might be able to afford Ohtani without crossing into the luxury tax bracket since Ohtani will only cost league minimum.
Again, that is what they COULD do. They have the money/resources. Do I want them to do that? Not really. I’d rather see them just go out and sign Lynn and Cobb to 3-4 year deals, re-sign Davis, and then sign a stable of solid relievers in Morrow, Reed, McGee, and maybe…. MAYBE Greg Holland. Again…. they have the money. Adding all these guys in free agency wouldn’t even add that much to the payroll compared to 2017’s payroll….. if it adds anything for that matter. If it does I have stated in previous posts they could easily dump Zobrist and his salary on some rebuilding team who is in need of quality veteran leadership. Dump Zobrist for a firm handshake and pat on the back in return, and you get rid of the $29M owed to him the next 2 seasons ($16.5M in 2018 alone). That salary dump would be more than enough to sign all these guys on my “ideal” to-do list for Theo and Co.
MY Cubs pitching staff would then be as follows for 2018
LH Lester
RH Hendricks
LH Quintana
RH Lynn
RH Cobb
CL Davis
SUa Holland
SUb Reed
RP Strop
RP Edwards
RP Morrow
LRP McGee
LRP Montgomery
Just NASTY. The rotation COULD be better, but that is still pretty solid. That bullpen though…. my god. Every lead past the 5th inning should be pretty friggin safe. 6 of the 8 guys in my ideal bullpen are or have been closers or setup men in the past…. just as recently as last year as a matter of fact. That’s 6 shut down/lights out relievers. McGee and Montgomery aren’t exactly bums either.
Brevity is your friend.
Sorry folks, parks closed. Moose out front shoulda told ya.
You should use chapters to break that up a little bit
So your solution to their problem is go out and sign all of the top relievers on the market….
Cubs fans always forget there are 29 other teams that are also looking to make some improvements.
So when is the 2nd Chapter being published of this novel ?
So, you want to sign a guy who has already been taken by another team. Not to mention, he has some bad years, as well.
They do not need a ton more moves. They need one starter and a closer, then a middle inning arm or two, of which there are plenty.
You also pimp Lynn. I like him, too, but he has concerning peripheral stats that you ignored.
Sorry, I didn’t read the rest.
2 TJS seem like a cause for alarm. Medlen and Minor took a long time to come back from two shoulder/tj surgeries. yet unproven on durability.
3 years isn’t a long contract, and Chatwood has pitched healthy for two seasons now.
Really good under the radar signing. He will help more than his Coors-inflated numbers would let on. As a Brewer fan, I was hoping they would get him.
yeah I would have preferred they resigned lackey haha
If you’re a Cub fan, get ready for a lot of walks, which tend to come in bunches, separated by a bunch of really good stuff. Frustrating pitcher, given his immense talent.
He is a #5 so that’s what they do
Cubs fans dealt with Lackey thinking he was better than he really was during 2017, so there’s a good chance that it can’t be any worse than that.
Kudos to the Cubs front office for getting this deal done without a lot of media drama. Chatwood is exactly the type of SP BAL should be pursuing, but while the Cubs were locking him up the O’s were screwing around with the idea of signing Miguel Gonzalez. It would seem Lackey is a logical fit for the BAL rotation, but I’m starting to think they’re gonna aim even lower than Lackey.
$12+M/season for a dude with a mediocre (putting it mildly) career ERA and in 6 seasons has yet to toss 160 or more innings? What the hell, Theo? They could’ve easily landed Cobb for this kind of deal. Maybe add 1 more year to it for a total of a 4 year deal and $50M….. a $12.5M AAV. Would SOOOOO rather have Cobb over Chatwood. Chatwood just seems like an Eddie Butler 2.0. But a WAY more expensive model. The guy’s walk rate alone doesn’t warrant this kind of deal. I am floored right now how much of a chunk of their team payroll they’re giving this guy. At BEST Chatwood is a 3 year $27-30M starting pitcher…. AT BEST! 6 years, a 4.31 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 1.49 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 rate…… why on earth would you sign this guy…… at least for anything over $10M/season. This might be as bad as Theo’s Edwin Jackson signing….. we shall see.
Half of his starts have been made at Coors. Go look at his splits. He has the 2nd best road ERA in the MLB over the past two years and he is an extreme groundball pitcher, which works perfectly for Wrigley Field.
This: “extreme groundball pitcher”. ding-ding-ding
I’m pretty sure everyone is really underestimating the money Cobb is going to get. If you’ve ever watched him pitch, you know why though. He was a bit inconsistent in his first year back from TJ, but by the end of the season he was the same very good No. 2 starter he was before. Way underrated.
You are literally complaining about signing a guy for $12+M a year and listed at least three that will be over $17 a year (Davis 4/70; Cobb 4/75, Lynn 4/75) and other expensive guys (Holland 3/45; Reed 3/33, McGee 3/30, Morrow 3/35). To get what you list in your rotation you have the Cubs committing at least $300 million.
Quality replacement for Arrieta.
The injury history worries me as well as future workload. Is there much upside left, I wouldn’t bet on it. Looks like an overpay and I expect him to miss significant time over the life of the k. Gives us an idea of the Cub’s view of the SP market.
Getting out of coors is the upside and it is huge.
Not bad for the end of the rotation. Hopefully they can pick up Cobb as well. Assuming they don’t get Ohtani of course.
Agree. And a couple of decent relievers off the FA market. No need to trade any of their position players unless someone is hot for one.
Shame that this is the day we live in where an average MLB starter can earn $38M on the open market.
You do know it’s not just for one year right? It averages to 12.6 per year. Around $10 a year seems pretty standard for a semi-decent starting pitcher.
Why is it a shame? Good for them.
I wonder if the Cubs would consider a 6 man rotation. That way they can sign Cobb and Lynn or Ohtani as well. It would help give Lester a little more rest since he was starting to get more injury prone last year and it will be easier on Chatwood and his two TJS he’s had
The Cubs have employed a 6-man rotation down the stretch the past two season in order to help a staff that had made two deep postseason runs in 2015 and 2016. Perhaps they will consider that option in 2018 and a bit sooner on the heels of another season in which they made it to the NLCS.
Cubs are not getting Ohtani!
over paid wayyy too much
y=4mil
How? 12 million doesn’t get you much in pitching nowadays. And he still has potential to break out.
I agree. he used two too many y’s. cubs paid about 8 mil higher total contract to get it done than market was indicating. hence the y=4. it’s mlb baseball tho, they swim like Mcduck in pools filled with gold.
I wonder since Chatwood is the “hardest throwing starter” available, if they would consider turning him into a closer. If they get Ohtani and sign Cobb? Hmmmm…..
I didn’t know Tyler Chatwood (95 mph) is the hardest throwing starter either. I know Alex Cobb (92 mph) is not.
I read it somewhere. If that’s so, then he isn’t. But he has durability issues, so maybe ThTs the plan
Not at that price tag. The Cubs are counting on Chatwood to hold down a spot in the rotation.
Chatwood would have been a good choice at 10 million, slight overpay, he will take over Lackey’s spot. I think they still sign Cobb.
I’m sure the second Tommy John surgery took…
We won’t miss him in Denver. Unreliable and inconsistent-and that’s when he was healthy. But he can hit and also runs well for a pitcher. Let the Cubs worry about him.
Gladly
“Unreliable and inconsistent”
That’s why he’ll be the Cubs 5. A bit of an overpay, but that’s free agency. He’s only 28 with upside and it’s only a 3 year deal. Nice sign by Theo.
It’s a. Nice start. Now re-sign Davis or sign Greg Holland and someone like Addison Reed. Then go after and try to sign Cobb and hopefully they get Ohtani as well.
They’re not over-paying. This is the going rate for any SP that has any business being in an MLB rotation. Middle-of-the-road contracts for starters have practically vanished over the past few seasons and the players know it. Any player that signs a small money contract is only going to sign for one year in hopes of earning a better payday the following season. What they’re paying Chatwood is on-par with, if not below, the going rate for a starter of his age, performance, and potential.
@passwords
Bravo! Well said.
Hopefully Tyler Chatwood turns out better than another 28-year old FA the Cubs signed just last offseason who came to them with some success, good potential but a similarly worrisome injury history, to help with the back end of their rotation…Brett Anderson.
I’m not real sure about this signing. That’s a lot of money for someone who may or may not work
Every signing ‘may or may not work’, but if you can find a starter available who averages lower than a 2.57 ERA over the last two years, I’d definitely be for signing them. This guy is one of the very best of the best of the Free Agent crop, he was terrible in Coors but so was pretty much everybody else. Away from Coors he literally puts up Cy Young contender numbers. And guess what? Coors isn’t in Chicago, so he’s safe now 🙂 . If he simply puts up last year’s ERA, in non Coors games, next year, he will easily be worth twice what they’re paying him. If he improves at all, and at his age he probably will, he could easily be the 2018 Cy Young winner. Call me crazy, but I’ll take that for less than 13m a year 🙂 .
An excellent signing. Despite the “flawed” traditional statistics, he seems to have excellent stuff. Haven’t seen him pitch a much. I’ve heard some excellent scouting reports on him though. The home/away splits are telling. Was hoping the White Sox may take a flyer on him. There’s arguments to be made against signing him also apparently. Cubs paid a relatively high price for his services. If he can stay healthy, I expect this to be quite a decent acquisition in the end. Chatwood seems to be an enigma nonetheless.
Rock on Dipoto!
why would the cubs allow a sports writer access to the contract??? especially where it says he gets more money for at least one cy young vote. doesnt have to win the cy young even. the cubs arent a publicly traded company, so they dont have to divulge the financials, especially the cy young part. now BBWAA wants to ban him from votes on this.