Right-hander Shelby Miller has won his arbitration hearing against the D-backs, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). The Roc Nation Sports client will earn $4.9MM in 2018 as opposed to the $4.7MM figure that was submitted by the team. His $4.9MM payday lines up with his projected arbitration salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Miller, of course, underwent Tommy John surgery early in the season, thus making it somewhat of a surprise to see him earn a modest raise. However, he did make four starts and post a 4.09 ERA with 20 strikeouts against 12 walks in 22 innings, and the arbitration panel apparently deemed that small sample of work worthy of a modest boost in pay. Arizona’s $4.7MM submission was merely a repeat of the salary that Miller earned in 2017, so their proposal was simply to not offer a raise at all and renew him at his previous rate of pay.
The season-ending surgery for Miller served to create a second consecutive disappointing season in Arizona after the D-backs infamously gave up Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson in order to acquire Miller two offseasons ago. However, it’s worth noting that Miller’s velocity, swinging-strike rate and overall strike percentage had demonstrated legitimate improvement through his first four starts after a nightmarish 2016 season in which he logged a 6.15 ERA in 101 innings.
Those 2016 struggles prompted the D-backs to, somewhat stunningly, option Miller to Triple-A Reno. (The move itself wasn’t necessarily stunning in light of his significant struggles, but it’d have been borderline unbelievable prior to Opening Day 2016.) That minor league demotion cost Miller enough service time to buy the Diamondbacks another year of control over Miller, who can still be controlled for another two seasons via arbitration. If he returns healthy in 2018, his raise for the 2019 season will now have a marginally higher base point.
The $200K discrepancy between the figures submitted by the two sides may seem like an exceptionally small gap to bridge in such a dramatic fashion. But, Miller’s modest raise will now serve as a data point in all future arbitration scenarios (for both the D-backs and the 29 other clubs), and teams often feel obligated to take a hard line against making too many concessions and progressing the market for future waves of arbitration negotiations. That’s a subject which MLBTR explored at length a few years back, for those interested in reading more about the team’s viewpoints on arbitration matters.
Shelby Miller is a joke!
Thought he was doing alright last year before his elbow exploded. Maybe he will gain even more velocity as others have.
Most guys are not actually better after TJ surgery. A few exceptions, but it’s been studied. On a macro basis, guys don’t get better.
Sorry, studies on this have been inconclusive. There is no consensus on performance improvement/decline after TJ surgery.
It’s true, there’s some data but it’s all inconclusive. John Smoltz is an interesting analysis considering he’s the only TJ survivor to get into the HoF. But he transitioned to a dominant closer, while also starting later on. He himself said that he may be the last HoF pitcher to have had TJ, just because of the game’s infatuation with velocity, but he also stated how important is was for him to transition from being a thrower to being a pitcher. While his strikeout totals post-TJ never equaled his eye-popping totals pre-TJ, they found a role for him that he was able to thrive, and eventually build enough strength back up to start again.
He’ll have to do a lot more things mechanically. Velocity isn’t everything, but it is important in today’s game. He has to figure out a way to harness velocity without tearing his arm apart.
This makes the arbitration process a joke also.
No… A joke is Matt Harvey getting a $500k raise final year Arb. Harvey got a $500k raise to $5.625m, to avoid Arb.
In 2017, Harvey had a 6.70 ERA, going 5-7. Guess the Mets aren’t as cheap as everyone thought, huh?
2 down-votes. Cmon guys! Harvey (and Miller) should’ve gotten Arb salary reduction.
I wish they were more common for players, who’ve had worthless seasons. (Not worthless players, they’ve had a history of performance, but rather worthless seasons— a terrible 2017 of negative WAR (Harvey) might be worse than terrible season of rehabbing (Miller)
Glad you guys want to reward mediocrity.
You mean the people upvoting your post?
I can see why those two guys getting a raise would be questionable, but salary reductions in arbitration are unnecessary. Teams have the option to offer the same salary from last season and Miller and Harvey would’ve been two reasonable cases if their teams were to do so. Teams already delay players’ free agent clocks by waiting a couple of months to call them up, if the option to offer a reduced salary was implemented, plenty of teams would do so. Especially if they know the player’s asking price might be a little high, they’ll purposely lowball their offer and take it to arbitration and hope the arbitrator (who is forced to decide on one of the offers) chooses the cheaper option.
They were quibbling over 200K? That’s nothing in MLB money.
An explanation of the trivial sums over which teams and players will go to hearings:
mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/inside-arbitration-the-…
It seems silly, to be sure, but this is now a data point in all future arbitration cases involving a player that was injured for both the D-backs and all 29 other teams. It’s in their interest to draw a hard line.
I thought the bigger issue would have been that it would increase his salary in future years of arbitration. Not sure how many years he has left though.
One after this one
Interesting. I was disappointed in the Braves decision to take Folty to arbitration to what seemed like an “insignificant” amount of $100k. This makes more sense now.
Agreed. Usually for a sum that close the sides would just meet in the middle. Wonder who played the harder stance.
When injured players get raises it really confuses me. I’d rather see guys like Betts win more arb cases at higher salaries. Injured players or players who had god awful years might have to settle for a paycut. Just being alive shouldn’t command a pay raise in my opinion. A lot of people will disagree with that but whatever.
I’m with ya
You can’t start setting a pay reduction in arbitration because it will set a bad precedent. Teams will then start lowballing the arbitration offer in the hopes that the neutral arbitrator will take their side over the player’s.
Shelby get a bad rap because of that idiotic trade… not his fault, man! Hope he bounces back and pitches lights out.
Somehow… I don’t think D-backs Fans will lose sleep over this one, unlike Red Sox fans with Mookie Betts winning his.
What is the argument for giving a guy a raise who hasn’t been remotely good in 2 years?
Being alive
Haha. Ok, that cracked me up
Shelby Miller winning his arbitration case has given me the courage to ask my boss for a raise.
Kind of shocking he won that to be out and recovering next year
Jay Z put a hit out on the Arbitrator.
I wish I could work 10% of my job and get a raise
You can work IT for the state of SC with me. It’s kinda like that.
But how? I guess anything really is possible.
Good for Miller. I’m not sure why people side with the owners. Like the owners don’t already make enough money.
I’m siding with Miller because of guilt. God bless David Stewart and his generous spirit.
baseball needs workers comp.
team on the hook for a guy you know won’t be able to play half the season.
Why did he win his hearing? He has done nothing the past two seasons… Weird
The braves will gladly take him back