This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.
The Blue Jays made depth a major priority this winter, making a variety of low-cost/solid-upside acquisitions to fill roster holes and (theoretically) help the club return to postseason contention.
Major League Signings
- Jaime Garcia, SP: One year, $10MM (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2019)
- Curtis Granderson, OF: One year, $5MM
- Seung-hwan Oh, RP: One year, $2MM (includes $250K buyout of $2MM option for 2019; option vests if Oh makes 70 appearances)
- Total spend: $17MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired OF Randal Grichuk from the Cardinals for RP Dominic Leone and SP Conner Greene
- Acquired IF Yangervis Solarte from the Padres for OF Edward Olivares and RP Jared Carkuff
- Acquired SS Aledmys Diaz from the Cardinals for OF J.B. Woodman
- Acquired IF Gift Ngoepe from the Pirates for cash considerations or a player to be named later
- Acquired SP Sam Gaviglio from the Royals for cash considerations or a player to be named later
- Claimed SP Taylor Guerrieri off waivers from the Rays
- Claimed RP Sam Moll off waivers from the Mariners
Notable Minor League Signings
- Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Danny Espinosa, Craig Breslow, Al Alburquerque, Jake Petricka, Nick Tepesch, Luis Santos, Deck McGuire, Rhiner Cruz, Matt Tracy
Notable Losses
- Jose Bautista, Darwin Barney (both still free agents), Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Goins, Miguel Montero, Michael Saunders, Tom Koehler, Rafael Lopez, Rob Refsnyder, Leone
Blue Jays 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview
Needs Addressed
While injuries were a big problem for the 2017 Jays, the larger issue may have been that the club received virtually no help from the injury replacements. Of the 60 players who saw action for the Jays in 2017, only 11 of them generated more than 1.0 rWAR. Combine that overall lack of production with sub-replacement level years from regulars like Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales, and it was no surprise that the Blue Jays sputtered to a mediocre 76-86 record. With this in mind, the Jays engaged in a near-total overhaul of the bench while also saying farewell to franchise icon Bautista and several other players (Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera) who saw a lot of playing time last season.
Of course, Goins and Barney weren’t supposed to get nearly the 821 combined plate appearances they received last year, but the two light-hitting infielders were pressed into regular duty thanks to extended injury absences from Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis. With those two players still big question marks health-wise this season (and Tulowitzki already sidelined to begin the season), Toronto loaded up on infield help, acquiring Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Gift Ngoepe in separate trades with the Padres, Cardinals, and Pirates, respectively. Danny Espinosa was also signed to a minor league deal for further depth at shortstop and second base.
Diaz looks to be the starting shortstop with Tulowitzki out, and there’s certainly upside to be found in a player who was an All-Star as recently as 2016. After his rookie breakout season, however, Diaz slumped to just a .259/.290/.392 slash line last year, both losing his starting shortstop job to Paul DeJong and also getting a demotion to Triple-A. At worst, Diaz looks to be a solid bench piece for Toronto, and he could potentially be a steal if his 2017 proves to be just a sophomore slump.
Solarte’s trade value took a bit of a hit after a below-average (93 wRC+) offensive year with the Padres last season that saw him hit .255/.314/.416 with 18 homers over 512 PA. Still, the Jays didn’t have to give up much in the way of prospect capital in the trade, and Solarte is only owed $4MM this season before a pair of pricier club options ($5.5MM in 2019, $8MM in 2020) must be addressed. He can play all over the infield and could even handle left field in a pinch, plus the switch-hitting Solarte has solid numbers against right-handed pitching, which will help balance out a very right-handed Toronto lineup.
With Bautista gone and Steve Pearce best suited for part-time duty, the Jays had holes in both corner outfield spots that they addressed with both short-term and longer-term options. Veteran Curtis Granderson signed a one-year, $5MM deal, and his left-handed bat is a natural complement to play alongside the southpaw-mashing Pearce in left field. Granderson has posted above-average offensive numbers against all pitching over the last three seasons, and with Pearce spelling him against southpaws, Granderson could become even more of a force in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Though his on-base numbers have dropped off over the last couple of years, Granderson still projects to be Toronto’s leadoff hitter when facing a righty starter.
Another deal with the Cardinals saw the Jays acquire Randal Grichuk to step into the everyday right field role, though Grichuk is capable of playing all three outfield positions in a pinch. Like Diaz, Grichuk was also seemingly on his way to becoming a regular in St. Louis after posting a nice breakout season (.276/.329/.548 with 17 homers over 350 PA in 2015) but has since trailed off, still displaying some solid power but subpar batting averages and on-base numbers. Grichuk arguably isn’t the best fit for a team that already had lots of trouble with strikeouts and lack of contact in 2017, though at age 26 and under control for three more years, he could still blossom after a change of scenery.
Joe Biagini’s struggles last season left a vacancy in the fifth starter spot, as the Jays will instead use Biagini as Triple-A depth after signing veteran Jaime Garcia to eat innings and generate ground balls. Toronto’s solid infield defense should mesh well with Garcia’s grounder-heavy style, and a good season could see him remain for 2019 via a $10MM club option.
The Blue Jays also turned to veteran arms to bolster their bullpen, inking several notable names to minor league contracts. Tyler Clippard and John Axford are favored to make the Opening Day roster over the likes of Jake Petricka, Al Alburquerque, and Craig Breslow, and if enough of these pitchers opt to remain in the organization, it will give Toronto quite a bit of extra bullpen depth. Beyond the minors deals, the Jays also brought in yet another ex-Cardinal in Seung-hwan Oh on a Major League contract to add to the setup mix behind closer Roberto Osuna.
Questions Remaining
While Grichuk, Solarte, and Diaz all underachieved in 2017, they don’t need to produce much in 2018 to improve on what Bautista, Goins, and Barney did (or didn’t do, to be more accurate) last season. Between the new trio and Granderson, the Jays acquired much more positional and matchup flexibility than they had on last year’s roster, and they were able to bring in these reinforcements for a relatively small cost in cash and prospects.
The biggest question still facing the Blue Jays, however, is whether more than just mid-tier acquisitions were needed to keep the team afloat in a very competitive AL East. In an offseason that saw the Yankees land Giancarlo Stanton and the Red Sox sign J.D. Martinez, Toronto’s more modest adds don’t quite seem enough to close the gap with the two division powerhouses. If the Jays’ best path to the postseason is through the second AL wild card spot, it isn’t clear if they’ll have enough to battle the Twins or Angels, to name two clubs who made bigger splashes on the transaction front.
This isn’t to say that the Blue Jays didn’t at least explore some higher-profile moves, as the team was linked to the likes of Martinez, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Andrew McCutchen, and Alex Cobb on the rumor mill. Instead, in settling for a group of players that aren’t guaranteed beyond the 2018 season, the Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins front office gave itself some flexibility in deciding if this current talent core is really a contender, which is an open question in the wake of the mediocre 2017 campaign. Even if the newcomers all perform as expected, it won’t lead to much progress in the standings if the rest of the team can’t stay healthy or rebound from what was almost a team-wide (save for Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman and Justin Smoak) set of disappointing seasons.
Reports from Spring Training about Devon Travis’s knee issues and Aaron Sanchez’s recovery from blister and finger problems are promising, though the Jays won’t really feel comfortable about either player until they get some solid playing time under their belts. As noted earlier, Tulowitzki is already facing another DL stint and the veteran shortstop isn’t certain when he’ll be back on the field. The Jays didn’t make any upgrades at backup catcher, so they’ll be hoping that Russell Martin far surpasses his 91-game total from 2017, lest Luke Maile or rookie prospect Danny Jansen be pressed into regular work.
Garcia gives the Jays five solid starting pitchers in a rotation that could be quite good if Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada all bounce back to their past form. Beyond those five, however, Biagini leads a very inexperienced crop of starters at Triple-A, and there aren’t any obvious swingman-types on the 40-man roster aside from Biagini himself to easily step in for spot duty.
Problems in the rotation will lead to more work for the bullpen, coming off a season that saw the Blue Jays post the third-most relief innings of any team in baseball. While the veteran signings represent fresh arms, none of them are coming off particularly good seasons (hence their availability on minors contracts), so it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to contribute properly. Oh, for instance, saw his contact and homer rates increase from 2016, and he represents something of a wild card as he enters his age-35 season and his third year in North American baseball.
Finally, Donaldson’s future has been a notable subplot of the Jays’ offseason, though the team was adamant all along that it wasn’t looking to trade its star third baseman. (The Cardinals were one team known to be interested, and it’s quite possible the Grichuk and Diaz trades might have branched out of any inquiries St. Louis made about Donaldson.) As of February, extension talks between Donaldson and the Jays didn’t seem to be progressing, and the former MVP was already putting negotiations aside to focus on the season.
Donaldson has been hampered by some nagging injuries throughout the spring, including some calf soreness that stands out as particularly troubling given that a calf strain cost him a decent chunk of last season. The Jays absolutely need Donaldson at full strength, firstly to help them contend and (in a worst-case scenario) so Donaldson could become a midseason trade chip in the event of another sub-.500 season.
Overview
The Blue Jays’ long-term plan is to ride an oncoming wave of prospects into regular contention in the AL East, with top minor leaguers Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Anthony Alford, Ryan Borucki, and Jansen all expected to reach the majors by 2019 at the latest. The question is whether these youngsters will be reinforcing a team that’s already vying for the postseason, or one that has taken a step back to rebuild for 2020 or 2021.
Based on the Jays’ maneuvers this offseason, they’re hedging their bets about either scenario. If last season really was just an injury-riddled fluke, Toronto could take a lot of teams by surprise in 2018. Raising a talent floor is a much more cost-effective strategy than raising a talent ceiling, particularly for a Jays club that has so much money already tied up in players (i.e. Tulowitzki, Morales) who might not be very productive. Then again, the Jays could improve by 10 wins and that still might not be enough in the wild card race, leaving the team wondering if they should’ve made a bolder acquisition or two for what could be the final seasons in Toronto for pending free agents like Donaldson, Estrada, Happ, Granderson, and Pearce.
What’s your take on the Blue Jays’ winter? (Link for app users)
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Do they deal Stroman at the deadline?
No the Jays won’t deal Stroman at the deadline under any circumstances.
Not necessarily. The front office will always listen to offers. If the right player(s) were to be offered, it would not be inconceivable that they would pull the trigger on a deal.
That being said, I would imagine Osuna would provide significant value in a trade. What team builds around a CP? Look at the haul the Yankees got for Miller/Chapman. Osuna is not too far off of the calibre of such players.
Can’t see Osuna being traded at all – He’s gonna be the new Mariano Rivera.. Agree that if the right package comes along then Str show moves on, JD will go regardless of where TBJ are in standings, Pillar and Estrada will be traded as well. If they can trade them, then Pearce, Morales, Granderson and Smoak will be gone (can only hope for Tulo to be included but that’ll be a tough sell)
2019 TBJ’s will include: Guerrero, Bichette, Hernandez, Fields and Alford. Grichuk and Biagini; Sanchez, Happ,Travis and Martin will remain. They will need a 1st baseman and DH and 2 (1 if Stro stays) starting pitchers – minors or free agents. Apologies for not addressing relief pitching if they’re your thing….they aren’t mine.
Great analysis. I think Atkins and Shapiro are so paranoid of making big mistakes with trades that there is no way Stroman will be traded until his last year of controllability. Same with Pillar, Gibby and the staff will heavily object to him being traded. He stays.
If the Jay’s executive are smart, P{earce, Mrales, Grandy, Smoak, Donaldson, Happ, Estrada are all traded at the deadline.
Tulo is moved to first or 3rd base to save wear and tear on his body,.The rest of the holes in the rotation and lineup are filled out by kids.I’d be inclined to trade Bichette for a starter since I don’t scout Bichette that highly at the MLB talent level. Guerrero will a star and Alford can be very good if he can stay healthy. Grichuk is a 4th outfielder because of his bat. Hernandez will be a solid LF, no read on Fields yet. Put Biagini back in the pen and Sanchez as well because of the finger.
Is that what your man in the room tells you ? LoL
What sucks for the Jays is that they are good enough to maybe get a wild card but at the same time definitely not good enough to do much in the playoffs if they make it imo….so it makes it tough to trade away veterans when they have a chance for the playoffs but at the same time the smart move would be to trade away those veterans for the future…really tough spot but it is wise to wait till the deadline…although the problem is they will be in the same spot…contending but not good enough to realistically compete for the the WS…really tough spot for them…and one more thing…oh was not a good pick up and will be released by mid season
Totally agree of your thoughts on the Jays. I called OH as a bad signing too. Glad there are some smart people around.
I think better chance of them trading Josh Donaldson.
The Blue Jays don’t need to go through a total rebuild, because they do have a young core, and good farm system, but they could benefit if they trade away some of their veterans, like Donaldson, Smoak, Happ, and Estrada, who are all either on the last year, or are nearing the end, of their contracts.
Why don’t we at least play some games in the regular season before talking about selling off the entire team. If they are out of it in July, I am all in on trading them. But starting it already?
That’s a good point. Wait until the deadline.
We don’t have to wait until the deadline to forecast that this less than stellar Blue Jays team isn’t going to be competative and will be out of the playoffs again.[as I correctly called over the last 2 years as well]. #Scouteyes
lol didn’t they make the ALCS 2 years ago??? wtf are you talking about.
He’s an idiot. They made the playoffs two years ago. #idioteyes
They really don’t have a young core. Stroman and Sanchez are young. None of their position players are young except Randal Grichuk. They have vlad jr, Bichette, and Alford in the minors but they aren’t a young major league team. If the jays are young you could say that about any number of teams. They had one of the oldest rosters last year and figure to be up there again.
they’re going to be lucky to sniff the 2nd wild card spot – and that’s with almost near immaculate health.
You base this on what exactly, your spine tingling feeling?
Based on the team they have, yeah. I agree.
great health I think they’re the favorite for the second wild-card anyway I think they’ll be a competitor and if it goes bad they can sell off at the deadline
What sucks for the Jays is that they are good enough to maybe get a wild card but at the same time definitely not good enough to do much in the playoffs if they make it imo….so it makes it tough to trade away veterans when they have a chance for the playoffs but at the same time the smart move would be to trade away those veterans for the future…really tough spot but it is wise to wait till the deadline…although the problem is they will be in the same spot…contending but not good enough to realistically compete for the the WS…really tough spot for them
having a healthy Sanchez back is like signing a top free agent pitcher. Travis has looked promising when healthy. injuries crippled the Jays last year- staying healthy will be the key. If they can then a wild card is well within reach
With near immaculate health they’re as good as the Twins or Angels. Will they have near immaculate health? Probably not.
As I stated 2 years ago, the Jays needed to blow this thing up then and they still need to do it now. I have to agree with sovietcanuck that they will be extremely forutnate to even have a sniff at the 2nd wildcard.
This rotation will not carry them to the promised land. Period end of story.
Like last year, the depth signings they made are bargain basement hoping for lightning in a bottle. One or two will work out, that is just math, but most will crap out. Mat Latos, Rob Refsynder, Casey Lawrence etc etc anyone? It’s a long list last year and equally long list this year. The Jays professional scouting staff or executive making these decisions needs changing.
As far as trades go, Diaz can barely pick it up, he is worse that Goins and hasn’t proven he can hit after the pitchers corrected for the holes in his swing from hios rookine season. Grichuk was a 4th outfielder for a reason. Ngoepe will be back in the minors because he has a AAA bat. MAile is terrible offensively.
Here’s hoping they will get off to a good start, but sadly, the Jays will be out of contention and sellers at the deadline. Wait for it, it will happen.
Although I don’t see them contend this year, I still gave them a B for the business they have done this offseason. They acquired guys with good upside without giving up a lot in terms of money or talent, Of course, we can safely say now that the Granderson and Garcia deals are more expensive than they could have been, but at least they didn’t offer 4 years for a mediocre player… again.
I like both moves. Grandy is aging but will be himself if Gibby doesn;’t do what he did to Bautista last year and give him all that time on the turf and 600+ at bats.
I like the Garcia move less, he has great stuff but it seems to always materialze into 4th or 5th starter type. But useful.
Both are just peices. The Blue jays core is the issue. The rotation and core lineup guys aren’t good enough to win a championship.
I don’t think the bullpen is particularly strong outside of Osuna. They traded away their 2nd best reliever from last year to get Grichuk. I’d be more worried about that than their starting 5.
Yea yea yea. Majority of people give majority of teams a B. Nothing special with your vote, no need for explanation, move along.
Sanchez did not contribute last year because of his prolonged blister/fingernail problems. Getting him back is like signing a top FA starter. I think the Jay’s pitching is under-rated for 2018 and that they will surprise. Management was in a difficult spot preparing for this year because the Maple Leafs and Raptors plus the MLS soccer team are championship calibre as well as the Argonauts of the CFL. The Jays must continue to appeal to the fan base for that reason and they simply cannot let up and retool by waiting for all of their highly rated farm to develop and so they are rebuilding on the fly and gunning for the 2nd wild card spot. With the solid sneaky moves they have made this past winter, they have a very good chance of achieving that goal.
f
They have no chance. Period. Won’t happen.
What does #scoutseyes think the Jays record will be? Better or worse then last year?
Any middling team had a chance dependent on own and divisional rivals’ luck. They’re not a sure thing but if they compete it’s not crazy.
I gave them a B grade because I didn’t expect them to sign a top tier free agent but they were still able to add depth with deals that can turn out to be absolute steals. Yes they could have gotten Yellich but that would have taken Vlad Jr to get that done and that would have been a very tough one to swallow.
Cards should’ve traded Diaz, Garcia, grichuk, and oh for Donaldson. Lol. Do they know matt Holliday’s available?
Garcia was a free agent!
Wow. You thought that was a serious comment? Did it go over your head by a mile or just a couple inches? Oh was also a free agent. And obviously the blue Jays would not have traded Donaldson for all our leftovers. Sarcasm man.
I can’t blame Shapiro for not going all in and acquiring top tier free agents this winter. The Jays addressed needs economically if not convincingly. Hopefully one of the players coming off bad seasons turn into the next Jose Bautista circa 2010-2015. The perpetual parade of injuries to Tulo and Travis are maddening to the point that to expect anything from either of them is unrealistic. If everything breaks just right they’ll be buyers in July, but I grade their offseason a C because so many of their acquisitions and returning players need a wing and a prayer to approach their potential.
We agree, I give their efforts a “d”. The goal is to win this year. Shapiro has set a longterm goal of competativeness[the hell with winning] every year. Look at his Cleveland days 2002-2014. All those years and only one deep playoff series and a few whiffs at it.
Shapiro can build a great farm system but it is pretty obvious he doesn;’t have a clue how to win at the major league level. Even the current Cleveland regime had to clean up his MLB mess of Bourne, Swisher, acquire Miller etc.
Don’t expect any winning for the Jays for eternity unless the MLB roster and professional scouting is taken out of Shapiro’s authority.
I don’t think the Jays are competitive in the East by July. However, the Jays are in a position to rebuild-on-the-fly with some great prospects in place, tradeable pieces, and a responsible management team to oversee an efficient rebuild.
rotacion can take a team really far and that’s something the bluejays DO have… so anything is possible.
I don’t know if they’ll make the playoffs, but they’re going to at least battle for a spot. Full seasons out of Donaldson, Travis and Sanchez are probably close to 10 added wins from last year. Granderson, Grichuk, Garcia, Diaz and Solarte are also upgrades from the guys they’re replacing
To boil it down:
A healthy Jays team is good enough to get the second wild card (it doesn’t take much — only five AL teams had winning records last year). But no one knows if they will be healthy, so relax your hot takes.
A playoff Jays team will be outclassed, as currently constituted, though significant luxury tax room and a trade-savvy front office could solve that issue (see 2015). So please exercise some modesty before writing off the season.
A mediocre Jays record heading into July is not a terrible thing if the Jays veterans are healthy, as Donaldson, Happ, Estrada, Granderson, Axford, and Clippard could be very attractive rentals (maybe add Russell and Smoak to that list if there is a market for them). So a disappointing 2018 has the potential to turn into a trade deadline bonanza, especially as the team can afford to eat some money to get what they want.
Anything can happen — none of us knows. Any commenter who claims to have knowledge of the unseen or of the future is a proper object of ridicule and should probably go back to the UFO and paranormal blogs.