Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus addressed the opt-out clause in his contract with reporters yesterday, strongly suggesting that he doesn’t plan on testing free agency this winter (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Andrus, 30, plainly stated that he is “for sure” coming back to the Rangers next season before backpedaling a bit and emphasizing that no final decision will be made until the offseason.
It’s not much of a surprise to hear Andrus suggest he’ll forgo the opt-out provision in his eight-year, $120MM contract. As I noted last week when running through the opt-outs around the league, Clayton Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out clause in this year’s free-agent class who can be considered likely to opt out. While Andrus had the next-best case, his chances of opting out are lowered by the fact that he has a second opt-out clause in his contract following the 2019 campaign.
Had Andrus performed at a level commensurate with his 2016-17 output — combined .299/.348/.457 with 28 homers and 49 steals in 1257 plate appearances — there’d have been a strong chance he’d opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM. He enjoyed a strong start to the season for the first couple of weeks but then missed just under seven weeks of action after being hit by a pitch and sustaining a fractured elbow.
Since returning, Andrus’ production hasn’t matched his previous levels, as some may have expected given the nature of his injury. Andrus was hitting .327/.426/.500 through his first 61 plate appearances this year but has stumbled to a .253/.293/.365 slash in 307 PAs since returning. He’s made some improvements since the All-Star break, but it’d still be a stretch to imagine him topping $58MM in free agency this winter — especially considering he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer upon opting out. (Were he to walk away from four years and $58MM, the Rangers would surely feel confident he’d do the same if presented with a one-year offer worth around $18MM.)
Andrus can return for a guaranteed $15MM in 2019 and then forgo the remaining $43MM on his contract in the event that he has a better season at the plate. At that point, agent Scott Boras could pitch him as a quality defensive shortstop who has had three strong offensive seasons in his past four years, with the lone disappointment coming after suffering a fairly notable elbow injury that impacted his swing. And, should Andrus incur additional injuries or see his struggles at the plate continue, he’ll have the safety net of a fairly hefty three-year guarantee on which to fall back.
Opting out of any contract now is a giant risk for the player as we saw owners being very careful with the contracts they were handing out this past off season with some players settling for much less that the QO
Smart move by Andrus. No reason to test FA with an option next year.
But, let’s just say he did opt out this year and the Rangers quality him. He could take that, make $18M guaranteed, which is actually a raise on his 2019 salary of $3M, then he could leave next year with no QO attached and sign a bigger deal than the 3/$43M he has left on the original deal.
Is it scary to walk away from a guaranteed $43M for those three years? Yes bc he could get hurt, but if he’s going to opt out next year, may as well do it this offseason so he can’t be stuck with the QO next offseason.
He could bet on himself, shed the QO, gain $3M and still be a FA in the winter of 2019-20 with a chance at a big payday.
The Rangers might not be disappointed if Andrus opts out depending upon Profar’s 2019 season. Profar might be next year’s 3B. He could move to SS in 2020 if his bat continues to evolve.
He be a fool to opt out. The market has changed. FO’s have changed. Though it’s true it only takes one foolish team to blow a market, I think there will be NO $300 million contracts for anyone.
DJ of Rockies rocking $110 mil for 5 years! LSD thinking.
It is the end times…..
There will be no 300 mil contracts? Might have to disagree on that one
Any team would be foolish to pay any player 300 million, as it would more than likely be a 10 year deal, which I can’t think of any of those deals that worked out in its entirety
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado call BS on your theory this year.
Yeah A-Rod’s first megadeal with the Rangers says signing elite hitters in their mid 20s is a good investment. Everyone should want and need Harper and or Machado on their team and the bidding should turn into a war for their services.
That’s the thing though. The deal doesn’t have to look good in Years 9 or 10 to be worth it. If you get 5 or 6 star-level seasons from Harper or Machado, the deal was worth it even if the back end is really ugly
That’s how FOs used to think. The only way that works is if a team has multiple years of contention ahead.
Well Harper has only had 2 seasons that would justify a superstar level contract to this point in his career. Media hype is his biggest asset.
A-Rod and Manny Ramiriez had their first long term deals work out. Yes, we can say they both were on PEDS but a 10 year deal concludes with both Harper and Machado being just 35 and 36. 1-2 potientially bad years after a lot of elite years is an investment a lot of teams are going to throw their hat in for.
Unless we see some odd change in his trajectory, Trout will surely land 300 million.
Yeah I do not agree with this take at all. I think that if big market teams have the financial flexibility, they’ll spend that money. I think so many teams were waiting for the big free agents this year, so they spent less last year. I do think that teams are a little mroe careful with big money deals, so some of the ridiculous ones in year past won’t happen for awhile
I think it depends on what Beltre does. If Beltre stays he’ll stay.
Damn. I love Elvis, and wanted to see him play for a better club.
I don’t see him opting out unless he has a career year in ’19.
This is basically a win-win for the Rangers. Either they get a good player at a palatable price or they get a pick.
When they signed this contract, I thought it was an over pay with too much risk. Elvis has played up to the contract.
He’s been better than what most thought he was after the 2015 season for example but he’s still not living up to that contract or he’d opt out for one that offered more salary and more years like Kershaw might. Kershaw despite the decline and steady injuries might opt out of a huge 30M per season contract to become the top free agent.
Opting to stay on a rebuilding team is rather sad. I mean, I don’t know if I’d want to play 2-3 years of worthless baseball. I’d rather play for a contender.
He’d be leaving a lot of money on the table if he opts out. Winning is awesome but money talks.
Strong D up until the end of September.