The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.
“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”
It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.
Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.
RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.
Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.
Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.
“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”
Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.
“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”
The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.
Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.
Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.
Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”
It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.
What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.
Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.
A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
So what Crane is saying is an extra $30 million profit to add to his billions far outweighs putting together a better team since he remains, as always, much more focused on the business side versus the fans or entertainment.
You’re acting like the other 29 owners are goat baseball fans who spend $300m on their team every year. You’re lucky to have an owner who pushes the lux tax at all
I’m okay with going over the luxury tax threshold, just don’t go over it by 40 million.
And stop acting like it’s a good thing.
Of course you would, it’s not your money they are spending “wildly”. Your season tickets package doesn’t pay any of these salaries single handedly.
Nearly every owner is more focused on the business side. Owners don’t have to answer To anyone. There are no checks and balances. That structure is the true problem with MLB
Making money from the business you own isn’t morally wrong. Do you make people hamburgers for free at McDonald’s?
I don’t challenge the word “free.” I do, however, challenge the word “hamburgers.”
Meat slurry patty?
Most fans think that every owner should spend their team into bankruptcy because they’re worth billions. Most rich don’t get that way by making foolish financial decisions.
Only the dying or Steve Cohen spend like fans.
Houston’s payroll is absolutely nothing to complain about
Brown constantly pointing out that Valdez is still available seems to imply an almost “i told you so” towards Valdez and the Astros not signing him to an extension. While it is strange that there has been little traction on his market (same for Suarez) you can probably pin some of that on Toronto’s absurd Cease deal
I thought the same regarding Valdez.
And that Cease deal is indeed absurdly absurd.
There has been like thirteen Houston posts in the last 24 hours (it seems.) Enough already!!!
THEY SHOULD TRADE WALKER SIGN BACK VALDEZ BREGGY AND TUCKER .. THEY SHOULD HAVE NEVER GOT CORREA BACK
You wish.
Sir this is a Home Depot plumbing aisle
Good to know.
Your caps lock is on
Rather play Paredes at 3B every day instead of Correa
Tiger once had Paredes, before he broke out and tried to sign Correa. Seems like there could be some potential for a trade, if the GMs wanted to explore it.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Tigers traded for Paredes.
This sucks, otherwise we might’ve been able to extend Pena. Whatever, as long as we extend him, it’s fine. Valdez is good as gone, and I never wanted him back unless it meant going to Patrick Corbin or Cristian Javier (no offense), and I didn’t want to lose the PPI Hunter Brown got for us.
They aren’t talking about a Brown extension until Pena is gone/extended either way.
Extending Pena OR Brown is a fantasy
They absolutely botched the Brown extension talks by not making them a priority when they could still afford him.
Pena wanted much more than they were offering so fired his agent and hired Boras in the middle of talks.
Neither will be on this team after arbitration ends and should be traded with a season left like Tucker
Pena still has 2 years left, while Brown has 3, there is still time. I don’t think it’s going to happen this offseason, but next offseason sounds better. They extended Alvarez and Javier, so it’s not fantasy.
I know the timeline.
The problem is that once players who are good enough to warrant an extension hit arbitration they have made $8+ million and no longer need to worry about security.
An extension needs to happen when there is still risk of losing lifetime security.
With millions in the bank, they can just play it out until free agency and then make $100+ million.
The Astros missed the window. Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr, Ronaldo Acuna Jr – on and on. They signed the extension before they had millions in security sitting in the bank.
The Astros are starting late.
They need to extend Cam Smith now.
Jeremy and Hunter will each have made over $10M once 2026 contracts are signed and guaranteed.
If they get injured and can no longer play they are still set for life, so what is the incentive to give up free agency?
Neither will be an Astro in 2029 and it should be sooner than that because the Astros pissed away their chances to extend them and now its too late.
Alvarez and Javier had each made less than $4M in total earnings at the time of their extensions.
Player security and motivation is a huge factor
He’s still on the market. He’s still out there. Maybe he should say it a few more times.
Seems like the Astros could work out something with the Nationals to swap Walker for catcher Keibert Ruiz. Total contract commitments roughly match but Ruiz has a much lower AAV for luxury tax purposes.
Astros would say no. Ruiz has even less production than Walker. It would be a bad contract swap but the Astros would want a swentener.
Walker was a Nationals target last year, and I wonder if he blocked a trade to them.
I wouldn’t hate it.
I won’t hate it, but a 1-1 swap isn’t likely, no money would be eaten, but the Nationals would have to tack on a sweetener.
Astros Offseason Checklist
Rotation-Check
Backup Catcher-Yet to come (likely left handed bat)
Impact Left Handed Bat-Dropped
Bullpen-Incomplete
Prospect Capital-Incomplete
Maybe you swap Paredes for a similar but is a left handed bat?
That’s selling low on Paredes. With a *healthy* season, he could be a 4+ bWAR player entering his prime years.
Well, I’m talking about a Paredes but left handed. It does depend on what you can get but someone said Paredes for Burrows before Astros traded Burrows for Melton and Brito so thanks for recognizing sense too.
Looks like we are looking at a bounce back from Jesus Sanchez
More like a resurrection
There’s nothing wrong with running baseball team for a profit, There is something wrong with taking Revenue Sharing and just pocketing it for profit while running out a team filled out with AAAA guys,
How much revenue sharing? I think that 48% revenue sharing is enough. But there has to be penalties (steep penalties).
Honestly getting both Imai and Burrows without crossing the CBT, losing draft picks, or trading from the MLB roster is a coup and I’d say a pretty successful offseason so far. Still need a lot of things to go right, but all of those things are likely enough for me to have hope. Would still like to see a resolution to the infield jam that doesn’t involve trading Paredes…
Unless you get the Nationals catcher or a bad contract swap, looks like Paredes is traded.
I’m okay with Paredes traded more than other Astros fans because it looks like Walker isn’t fetching much.
Where do you see that Parades was traded?
He hasn’t been traded. Not yet.,
I doubt he will be. 2nd best player behind Alvarez
Pena is better than Paredes. Excluding pitching, Paredes is our 3rd best hitter, but I think the Astros are running into a dead end.
*2nd best hitter. Peña is our best all-around player. But Paredes is the 2nd most important bat after Yordan.
Oh. I still think Pena is a better player.
Yeah that’s what I said, better all around player. Paredes is a better pure hitter though.
I meant hitter.
Nah. Paredes sees more pitches than any hitter in baseball. Pena had a great season but I need to see him do it again before I believe he’s actually a .300 hitter.
Paredes has only done it once too.
Paredes has posted an OPS+ of at least 112 in all 4 full major league seasons he’s played in. Peña in 4 seasons has only topped a 102 OPS+ once. There’s no question that Paredes is, to this point, the better offensive player.
Our original is that you said Paredes is NOT going to be traded because he is our 2nd best hitter, right?
Say if you trade him, can you fill his hole.
No I don’t think you can. I’d rather try to awkwardly fit these players together than move him.
Framber wasn’t resigning the moment he threw at his catcher. He’s known to meltdown when things go bad for him so good luck to whoever signs him
It was a certainty that Framber isn’t coming back long before that.
And YES he does melt down, but he also moves on quickly and does not let things snowball over multiple starts.
Whoever signs Framber will be better for it.
But it was never going to be the Astros.
They will need to get him help. Literally any little thing that doesn’t go his way leads to a meltdown. I used to go to games when he would play the Angels and tell my wife (angel fan) watch them get Framberized. That is until he would let his emotions get to him.
He has help and YES he is human and has a human issue.
But it is much less of an issue than you make it out to be.
In the past 4 seasons he has pitched into the 7th inning in over half of his starts – a rare quality in today’s game.
In 121 starts he has given up over 4 earned runs 17 times – 14% of his starts.
All starters have poor starts occasionally.
He has given up over 4 earned runs in consecutive starts exactly once.
He doesn’t blow up nearly as often as you make it sound and his blowups end just as quickly as they start.
“We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams…”
Why don’t they?
4th largest city in the country. With population trends they’re projected to overtake Chicago as the 3rd in the near future.
They have their own RSN.
They are consistently in the top 10 of MLB attendance with a few outliers here and there.
Seriously, how much more “big market” can you get?
“Big market” means national appeal. Yankees Dodgers Red Sox and Cubs have fans all over the country. Astros don’t have a national following.
Phillies are considered big market, too. You just described 4 legacy teams that have been around forever. Of course they’ll have fans all over.
“I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole”
MLBPA please save this comment for when the owners argue the league needs a hard cap to survive.
So an arbitrary number pulled out of thin air that acts as a cap for the Astro’s owner. So, hypothetically if they increased the tax cap by 20M he’s going to add another 20M to the payroll…
I think they will.
I think the Astros ought to try and restructure McCullers’ contract a la Rendon. They could free up roster and payroll space aftr they let him retire. I wouldn’t be surprised if something along those lines occurred after they see what he has left in spring training.
But Lance is not interested in retiring.
He still struck out over a batter per inning last year and was coming off of 2+ years of injuries
It is POSSIBLE that he has a solid season making 20+ decent starts.
I wouldn’t bet on it but as long as its possible he won’t retire.
That’s a good idea, will Scott Boras bite that though?