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Extension Candidate: Anthony Rendon

By Jeff Todd | September 10, 2018 at 11:18pm CDT

The Nationals will watch their best-known, homegrown position player hit the open market this season. But the team still has another season of control over another top draft choice who made good on his promise, potentially creating an opening for long-term talks.

Sure, Bryce Harper is the bigger star and the more visible talent. But since Anthony Rendon turned into a regular in 2014, he has out-WAR’ed Harper. That’s particularly true over the past three seasons, as Rendon has churned out quality campaigns while Harper’s 2015 MVP effort has faded into memory.

The shadow hanging over Rendon seems to suit his personality. But it has seriously obscured his productivity. Since the start of ’14, he’s among the ten biggest position-player WAR producers in the game, yet he somehow hasn’t yet been named to an All-Star team. True, Rendon has twice finished among the top-ten in the MVP vote, but his profile remains much lower than the quality of his play would support — not even close to that of his long-time teammate.

It’s somewhat surprising that the careers of Harper and Rendon have never been seen as being intertwined in any meaningful way, despite the fact that they were chosen with lofty picks in successive drafts and reached the majors on a similar timetable. There are many reasons for that fact, but it’s all the more interesting to ponder given that there could be a very tangible way in which their outlook is connected. Specifically, if the Nats decide to let Harper walk, or are unable to coax him back, they’ll have vastly more future payroll capacity to work with in pursuing a new deal with Rendon.

To be sure, the Nats have more immediate needs than a new deal with Rendon, who’ll command a healthy raise on his $12.3MM salary through arbitration. But that’s all the more true in the case of Harper, who can be replaced from within by rising young talents Juan Soto and Victor Robles. In the case of Rendon, there’s no obvious heir at third base once he reaches free agency next fall. True, Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia loom as promising young players in the infield, but neither is quite as advanced or as promising as are the outfielders.

Plus, there’s likely more value to be achieved with a Rendon deal than one involving Harper, if for no other reason than that the latter will be on the open market at a rarely-seen point of his career. Convincing Rendon to stay would cost, to be sure, and he’s also a client of Scott Boras (as are many other current and former Nats, including the recently extended Stephen Strasburg). But it is at least possible that the low-key player would be more inclined to take a slight discount to stave off some risk and maintain stability. He won’t be selling as much of his youth; though he only just turned 28, Rendon won’t reach the market at an unusually young age. And he’d also be weighing terms with another year to go before free agency, creating a lever for at least something of a discount.

Risk, to be sure, would weigh in the equation for both sides if talks take place. Beyond the usual, injuries have been a particular concern for Rendon. A variety of lower-leg ailments, involving his ankles especially, have limited him over the years — both before and during his professional career. While he turned in mostly full 2016 and 2017 seasons, Rendon ended up missing a reasonably lengthy stretch this year after suffering a hairline toe fracture on a hit-by-pitch.

That consideration might weigh down the price, but surely wouldn’t get in the way of a deal entirely. As noted above, after all, Rendon has been supremely valuable despite his medical rap sheet.

It’s also true that Rendon isn’t hitting quite as much as he did in his outstanding 2017 season, when he walked more than he struck out and produced a career-high .232 isolated power mark. But that’s not to say that he isn’t doing quite a lot with the bat. Through 511 plate appearances in 2018, Rendon carries a .298/.358/.508 slash with 19 long balls.

This, interestingly, is the most aggressive version of Rendon we’ve seen. His strikeout-to-walk numbers (14.3% vs. 8.6%) have returned to something like his career norms after the uber-patient 2017 showing. He’s swinging (48.1%) and chasing out of the zone (29.9%) more than ever, though his contact rate remains in range of his career mean.

That’s not necessarily a problem, particularly since we know he has the pitch recognition in his pocket if needed. Rendon is also making more hard contact than ever before (38.1%) this season, so much so that Statcast thinks he has been quite unlucky (.403 xwOBA vs. .366 wOBA).

It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that Rendon is also a high-quality all-around player. He’s not stealing as often this year as in the past but grades as a well-above-average overall baserunner. With the glove, it’s worth noting a sudden downturn in DRS (from +7 to -6). But he’s still a solidly above-average performer in the view of UZR and has long drawn sterling grades from those metrics and scouts.

So, what kind of a price tag might the Nats be looking at?

In truth, we haven’t seen the veteran third base market tested through extensions for quite some time. David Wright (eight years, $138MM) and Ryan Zimmerman (eight years, $126MM) signed those contracts before Rendon was even in the big leagues. Now, they feel a bit longer and a bit lighter on annual salary than we’re likely to see in the present market. The more recent action has been on players with much greater team control remaining, largely rendering them useless for our purposes.

Neither has the free-agent market seen many premium third baggers of late. Mike Moustakas fell flat on the open market with worries over his OBP and glovework. Pablo Sandoval got five years and $95MM, representing one of the closest comps for Rendon, though the Nats’ star is surely in a higher tier altogether. Before that, Adrian Beltre’s five-year, $80MM deal stands out as a laughable bargain for the club … and also a deal that’s far too stale to have any real relevance.

Perhaps, in approaching a Rendon price tag, we ought to consider two far more recent contracts, even if they truly aren’t on all fours with Rendon’s situation. Charlie Blackmon inked a deal in advance of his walk season that put a $21MM valuation on his free-agent seasons. While he was in an older age bracket, thus obviating the value of looking at his years, Blackmon was arguably a similarly situated player in terms of quality. Of course, there’s also an argument to be made that Rendon isn’t that far shy of the ability level of Jose Altuve, who was two years from the open market when he signed a deal with an AAV of over $30MM for his age-30 through age-34 seasons. Then again, he won’t be coming off of a superlative season capped by a World Series win and MVP award.

For Rendon, who’d stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-30 season without a new deal, it’s certainly arguable that a valuation between those two makes sense. Contract length is another variable that can’t be considered in isolation; likewise, options and opt-outs are a factor. Generally, the trend is toward slightly shorter deals that leave players with chances to cut things off a few years into the deal. In this case, perhaps, Rendon would be looking at adding five or six new seasons on top of his existing 2019 arbitration contract. With an AAV range in the neighborhood of $22MM to $26MM, that puts a rough guess in the range of a $130MM new-money commitment.

It’s certainly possible that’d be a bit too rich for the Nats’ liking, especially given the injury history (the details of which they know better than other teams) and the organization’s other needs. Then again, it may not be enough for Rendon to give up the chance of testing the open market. As always, these matters come down to negotiations between parties with real-world interests that can’t simply be reduced to baseball valuations. From the perspective of the baseball market, however, the above number — with a healthy error bar on either side — seems to be a generally fair target.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Extension Candidates MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals Anthony Rendon

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View Comments (60)

Comments

  1. i like al conin

    5 years ago

    Jeff, nicely done. I really enjoy your work.

    Reply
  2. majorflaw

    5 years ago

    “ . . . and reached the majors on a similar timetable.”

    Huh? Harper was brought up at 19, Rendon at 23. Even if they spent the exact same amount of time in the minors that isn’t anywhere close to the same timetable.

    Reply
    • aff10

      5 years ago

      I think the point is they reached the majors around the same time, not that Harper’s not a better future bet than Rendon is.

      Reply
      • Jeff Todd

        5 years ago

        Draft > system > majors … timetable once they were with the organization.

        Reply
    • RedSox4Life4ever

      5 years ago

      Not the same, but similar. I think the point was that they took about the same amount of time between being drafted and reaching the majors.

      Reply
    • nymetsking

      5 years ago

      Your major flaw is not reading the dictionary. Learn the meaning of the word before commenting.

      Reply
      • majorflaw

        5 years ago

        “Your major flaw is . . . “

        Yours is assuming that I haven’t read the same, tired, old “plays” on my UN hundreds of times over the past twenty years.

        “ . . . Learn the meaning of the word before commenting.”

        Which word—“timetable”? OK, I refreshed my recollection of the definition. Much as I remembered it.

        So you’re saying that Jeff’s point was that Rendon and Harper are similar because both were drafted, progressed through the minor leagues and were then promoted to the major leagues? Seems a point without a point as that’s the schedule for every player who is drafted. You could say that Rendon and Strasburg or MA Taylor or Zimmerman or Spencer Kieboom are similar in the same way. But you’d be saying nothing.

        Reply
        • johnrealtime

          5 years ago

          You’re a great writer Jeff. I’m sorry that you have to deal with boring sticklers like the above

        • Cat Mando

          5 years ago

          Let’s see who wins. according to Merriam-Webster, Jeff or Majorflaw.
          Definition of similar
          1 : having characteristics in common : strictly comparable
          2 : alike in substance or essentials : corresponding

          Definition of timetable
          1 : a table of departure and arrival times of trains, buses, or airplanes
          2 a : a schedule showing a planned order or sequence

          Considering both Harper and Rendon spentroughly one season in the minors (also known as a similar amount of time) and followed a similar “planned order or sequence” (A ball – AA – AAA – MLB) It looks like Jeff – 1 Majorflaw – 0

        • Jeff Todd

          5 years ago

          I mean, timetable could refer to different spans of time or aspects thereof, right? We know Harper was much younger upon being drafted and reaching the majors. I pointed that out later, if it needed to be said.

          My point, in this case, related clearly to the fact that they were chosen in successive drafts and then reached the majors in successive years. It’s not just that they were drafted and moved through the system to the majors (duh), it’s that they both departed from the early-round draft station and arrived in the majors on the same general timetable.

          I’m sure I could have been yet more precise, but I think it’s a sensible enough choice of words, with context considered.

        • majorflaw

          5 years ago

          “Definition of timetable . . . 2 a : a schedule showing a planned order or sequence.”

          Actually read that exact definition before posting my earlier comment. Assume that both you and Jeff are going with definition #2.

          As aforesaid, most players are drafted, progress through the minor leagues and are then promoted to MLB. If that’s your point it’s a non-sequitur. The only notable similarity between Harper and Rendon is the relatively short amount of time both spent in the minors. Even using the “sequence” definition it fails as there’s a considerable difference between “rushing” a nineteen year old to the majors and doing the same with a twenty three year old. That isn’t English, it’s baseball.

          “It looks like Jeff -1 MajorFlaw- 0”

          Not sure why you (and others) see this as a competition. I see this as trying to make the writers and writing at this site as good as possible. Fortunately Jeff appears to get it, which is why he tends to reply on-topic rather than getting resentful. I don’t beat my chest every time I make an editorial point and it sticks; not gonna start now. But you know it’s there, Cat. No amount of “boring stickler” accusations will deter me. I may resemble that remark but I do know writing.

        • Cat Mando

          5 years ago

          “Not sure why you (and others) see this as a competition. I see this as trying to make the writers and writing at this site as good as possible.”Don’t real;ly see it as a competition. I framed it that way in the spirit of baseball. I believe other view it as I do…the self absorbed ramblings of an obnoxious blowhole.
          Oh, BTW, in case your don’t understand that either, I was referring to you, not Jeff

        • majorflaw

          5 years ago

          “I believe others view it as I do…”

          Yes, most megalomaniacs do. A handful of anonymous commenters at a website do not your case make. I’ll continue to keep my own counsel, tyvm.

        • Gobbysteiner

          5 years ago

          God do you really have this little self awareness?

        • Cat Mando

          5 years ago

          majorflaw
          From the Oxford Dictionary this time
          megalomaniac
          NOUN
          1A person who has an obsessive desire for power.

          1.1 A person who suffers delusions of their own power or importance.

          You are the self appointed Lord of all things journalistic on this site and are bound and determined to force the staff to follow your standards (I believe once you even used a term similar to “drag them kicking and screaming if I have to) and you are calling others a megalomaniac? Really? That is how you see it in your odd little world? Get some help, please before you snap. You are not well.

        • redrooster

          5 years ago

          I thought majorflaw and Cat Mando would be friends considering their attitudes and commenting styles. Joke’s on me I guess.

    • Harry pness

      5 years ago

      @majorflaw you are the most annoying account on this site. Please get a life, your mother begs you

      Reply
      • gotothevideotape

        5 years ago

        Harry, agreed!!
        So many big mouths on here when most of us are just trying to enjoy chatting.
        I’ve noticed there is a gang of big mouths on this site and their behavior is constantly condoned by the writers, or owners.
        The policy is constantly ignored!!
        Kudos to you and Jeff!

        Reply
      • gotothevideotape

        5 years ago

        Harry, agreed!!
        So many big mouths on here when most of us are just trying to enjoy chatting.
        I’ve noticed there is a gang of big mouths on this site and their behavior is constantly condoned by the writers, or owners.
        The policy is constantly ignored!!

        Kudos to you, Cat Mando and
        Nym

        Reply
      • majorflaw

        5 years ago

        “ . . . your mother begs you.”

        My mother hasn’t been able to do that or anything else for a little more than a year, you malodorous sack of crap.

        Reply
        • Gobbysteiner

          5 years ago

          Shut up you idiot

      • SoCalBrave

        5 years ago

        leave majorflaw alone please… correcting others on this site is the only way for him to get some self esteem.

        Reply
      • redrooster

        5 years ago

        Bigpapi4ever, Casey’s Partner, cubsfan2489, ookashfa, FriendofBoras and that guy who used to post like those 4 team 30 player trades on every article are more annoying. Not by much tho.

        Reply
  3. xabial

    5 years ago

    Better chance of retaining this guy than Harper. Rendon is talented; 2017 was a quiet under-the-radar MVP candidate. Dude’s only 28. He’s the type of player you retain, and build around, and I think they keep him.

    My one question: how heck did his 3B defense deteriorate from gold glove to liability, in 1 year? What the heck Lol.

    Reply
    • NotaGM

      5 years ago

      Harper is a name like Nike…also liabilty!!! Players are allowed off yrs so that’s how it occurred. Offense still a plus and again he’s overlooked because of Harper and age. R is at the prime but cant compare because of age. R does deserse a good contract however Harper will be someones mo Vaughn

      Reply
      • baseball1600

        5 years ago

        Do me a favor. Don’t put GM at the end of your name. You are an awful one. Thanks.

        Reply
        • NotaGM

          5 years ago

          Do me a favor while you teach others of your pie circles…click on a site called mlb.com and become familiar with the sport before posting. Thanks

        • nymetsking

          5 years ago

          Probably why he says he’s not one.

        • redrooster

          5 years ago

          Hence his name being “Not a GM”

    • DJH

      5 years ago

      On your point about defense, perhaps because defensive metrics aren’t that reliable or accurate – something that sites like FanGraphs acknowledge.

      Reply
  4. aff10

    5 years ago

    I think I’d take the over on $130M. Rendon’s a young 28 with a well-rounded skill set that feels like a better bet to age well than most free agents. I know it’s just one example, but Justin Turner’s continued to make this general profile work into his mid-30’s.

    Reply
  5. JoeyPankake

    5 years ago

    Think I would rather have Rendon for half the years and less than half the total price than Harper is likely to get.

    Reply
    • Lanidrac

      5 years ago

      I don’t know if you could get Rendon for just 5 years (assuming a 10-year contract for Harper), but otherwise I agree. Someone is going to greatly overpay Harper based on his hype and his one career MVP season, and it’s not going to look great in the end.

      Reply
  6. baseball1600

    5 years ago

    Rendon is great. Just don’t know if I would pay 100-150 M for a player that wouldn’t be the best on 10-15 teams. 5 years 70-90 M? Sure, but I find him to be similar caliber of Eric Hosmer, just with much better bat, and much worse glove.

    Reply
    • baseball1600

      5 years ago

      Also think Harper deserves 250 M over 7 years, but will get 350 M over 9.

      Reply
      • JoeyPankake

        5 years ago

        Either contract is an overpay for a player as inconsistent as Harper.

        Reply
    • xabial

      5 years ago

      “worse glove”? Forget 2018, and look at their history:

      Who is the better defensive player? Who plays more premium position? Lol

      Both players are 28 (Hosmer almost 29) Rendon has worse DRS than Hosmer this year, but a higher UZR so their 2018 Defense is a wash

      Reply
      • xabial

        5 years ago

        Actually No…… Rendon’s defense is much better than Hosmer’s because he plays a much more DIFFICULT pos. Comparing 1B def to 3B? Lol., they don’t call third base “hot corner” for nothing.

        Reply
        • 24TheKid

          5 years ago

          Technically isn’t first base the hot corner when lefty’s are batting?

        • 24TheKid

          5 years ago

          I’m not saying third base isn’t harder than first though.

        • baseball1600

          5 years ago

          Ignorant. Every player plays a certain position, every player is a slice of the pie. You value each slice equally, you could have Nolan Arenado at third base, but with somebody like Albert Pujols at first his defense is greatly altered, and so is your team’s overall performance. You could have Pedro Alvarez play third, and many would-be errors become into stellar plays because of a reliable first baseman making plays. Hosmer is overall much better than Rendon defensively, so please don’t make the comparison that Rendon is better because his position is “more premium”.

        • Cam

          5 years ago

          All positions are not equal. That’s like saying a long snapper is as important as a quarterback.

          If you’re arguing that every position should be valued equally, you’re effectively arguing that every team in the MLB, and every analyst with a brain cell, is wrong.

        • Lanidrac

          5 years ago

          True, but you still can only value players at the positions they actually play, and the difference is not just because of which position is more premium. That’s more of a tiebreaker.

          Nobody would ever argue that Aledmys Diaz is a better defender than Hosmer just because Diaz plays shortstop (or attempts to do so). Likewise, Rendon very well could be an inferior 1B were he forced to play the position.

          Although, in this case, an above-average defensive 3B like Rendon probably provides similar defensive value to a Gold Glove caliber but not truly elite defensive 1B like Hosmer.

      • baseball1600

        5 years ago

        Rendon has always been near the bottom as far as third baseman go defensively. If you want to make comparisons with people at his own position, Rendon isn’t even top 15 as far as defensive third baseman go. As far as Hosmers case, you could make the arguement that only Goldschmidt and Belt are surperior to him defensively at first.

        Reply
        • Jeff Todd

          5 years ago

          By what measure?

          https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

        • NotaGM

          5 years ago

          Now, you look dumb…go back to the tea ball leagues….we will call u up next september as our rosters expand.

        • Badfinger

          5 years ago

          Epic fail.

        • Senioreditor

          5 years ago

          Belt????

  7. lettersandnumbersonly

    5 years ago

    shhhhhh. i’m hoping Rendon gets signed to nice respectable and affordable long-term contract. quietly and under the radar. the less chatter, the better.

    Reply
    • Senioreditor

      5 years ago

      He’s represented by Boras. Trade him NOW!

      Reply
  8. JFactor

    5 years ago

    I still remember him being a nice steal for the Nats in 2011 in the draft. Rendon was supposed to be 1 or 2, but I think he had dealt with an injury.

    Nats took him in 11, and took Giolito under similar circumstances as well.

    Nats deserve plenty of credit here, while the M’s and Royals missed big time.

    Reply
  9. natsgm

    5 years ago

    Would much rather resign Rendon than Harper and have been saying this for years. Rendon is only getting more expensive with the Nats waiting as well.

    Reply
  10. Senioreditor

    5 years ago

    TRADE HIM NOW! Don’t make the same mistake. Get a valuable asset while you can.

    Reply
    • Lanidrac

      5 years ago

      So you just want to give up on contending in 2019 and start rebuilding? Despite the Nats’ disappointing season and the likely loss of Harper, they’re still a pretty loaded team that will still likely match up well with the Phillies and Braves next season with the right offseason moves.

      Reply
  11. bravesfan

    5 years ago

    Wouldn’t be surprised if the braves go and spend money on him. I don’t think it will happen but it wouldn’t surprise me at all. We have Riley knocking on the door, but he just seems like the low key high talent type of guy the braves go get. We were the first team to draft him if u remember …

    Reply
  12. comish4lif

    5 years ago

    Your Luis Garcia link took me to the Phillies pitcher. Here’s the link for the Nationals Minor Leaguer:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=garcia019lui

    Reply
    • Jeff Todd

      5 years ago

      Thanks, should have double-checked the auto-linker on his name for sure.

      Reply
  13. Z-A

    5 years ago

    Wouldn’t break the bank. Hes not an elite 3B off or def. Hes Top-15. But hell get overpaid, they all do. 6.9 WAR is the outlier, not the norm. Hes going to post 20-80s-.280 more than 25-100-.300

    Reply
  14. Lanidrac

    5 years ago

    If they can only keep one, I think the Nats would be better off resigning Rendon rather than Harper. As overrated as he is, Harper is going to wind up very overpaid with only his young age keeping it from winding up as a disastrous contract for whichever team signs him.

    Harper is a very good player, no doubt about that, but most people somehow think that he’s some kind of perennial superstar and MVP candidate despite the fact that he’s only had the one career year (2015) when he’s even come close to fulfilling his hype. Machado is the one true prize of this upcoming offseason.

    Reply
  15. SoCalBrave

    5 years ago

    If I were the gNats I would give Rendon a back loaded 6 year, 130M contract with opt-outs after 3 years, 17M, 18M, 20M, 23M, 25M, 27M. Maybe make the last year a vesting option based on games played.

    Reply

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