This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we move the discussion to the outfield grass.
Teams In Need
A number of contenders and 2019 hopefuls will lose quality corner outfielders to free agency this season, including the Nationals (Bryce Harper), Braves (Nick Markakis), Indians (Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall), Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra) and perhaps the Mariners (Denard Span). The Yankees are set to lose Andrew McCutchen and could potentially bid adieu to outfield stalwart Brett Gardner, though the organization has ample outfield depth to withstand those subtractions. The A’s rode a patchwork corner outfield mix to the postseason and could look at adding a more established upgrade.
Meanwhile, a number of clubs coming off disappointing 2018 campaigns will look to reload and try again in 2018, with the Giants, Pirates, Cardinals and Phillies among the teams that could look to add a corner outfield bat with hopes of contending in 2019. St. Louis, in particular, could be in the market for a left-handed-hitting right fielder based on president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s recent comments. The Pirates, meanwhile, traded away Austin Meadows and have since lost Gregory Polanco into next summer following shoulder surgery. The Phillies are open to trading virtually anyone on the roster, so changes in the outfield are easy to imagine. How the Giants operate won’t be known until a new GM is in place, but their outfield mix leaves plenty to be desired regardless.
There are even several non-contenders who’ll simply need a veteran bat to plug in as a stopgap or an upside play; the White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Marlins and Orioles may simply want a low-cost veteran to join their rebuilding efforts.
Free Agents
Potential Regulars: Harper joins Manny Machado as a rare, star-caliber, 26-year-old free agent and will be a highly sought-after target by the market’s biggest spenders. The Nationals will surely at least consider a bid to retain him, but teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Giants will all be connected to Harper to varying extents. The Cardinals, too, could be in play for him, though they’ve never spent at that level in the past.
Teams that can’t afford Harper or don’t wish to commit a likely precedent-setting contract to the former NL MVP will still have plenty of options from which to choose. Michael Brantley rebounded from a pair of injury-plagued seasons to remind teams that he’s among the game’s best pure hitters (.309/.364/.468 with a 9.5 percent strikeout rate). Andrew McCutchen’s overall numbers in San Francisco didn’t stand out, but his output was suppressed by the cavernous AT&T Park. Beyond that, he posted excellent hard-contact numbers, giving some hope for better days ahead, and turned things on during his late-season run with the Yanks. Nick Markakis got off to a blistering start in 2018 before settling to hit like the Nick Markakis one would expect over the final five months of the year. He’s still a useful semi-regular even if he couldn’t maintain his torrid April. A.J. Pollock would provide quality glovework and a solid bat in a corner, but most teams probably prefer to install him in center — at least for the first couple seasons of a surefire multi-year deal.
Brett Gardner would bring another quality glove to the corner market if the Yankees buy out his option, though he could also be a trade candidate. Denard Span showed he can still hit in 2018 and even hit lefties well, but there are questions about his glove. Adam Jones has fallen well shy of his former star-level production in recent seasons, but his track record could earn him significant at-bats even if his OBP woes and defensive question marks are more significant than ever.
Could Marwin Gonzalez fit into this bucket, too? Houston’s Swiss army knife can play all over the diamond, and while he’s more of an infielder, he has plenty of left field experience and could hold down the fort as a stopgap before moving to an infield spot or a super utility role down the line.
Platoon/Bench Bats: Some players, such as Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra, aren’t that far removed from being quality regulars but seem more likely to find themselves in limited roles next year. Jon Jay has emerged as something of a fourth outfielder extraordinaire in recent seasons, logging significant at-bats without a set role. The venerable Curtis Granderson can still hit righties, and perhaps that’s true of Matt Joyce as well, though injuries wrecked his 2018. Melky Cabrera showed he can still hit a bit, but doesn’t have much to offer in the field. Cameron Maybin had somewhat of the opposite issue. It’s also not impossible that someone gives Jose Bautista another look, though he’s more of a minor league deal candidate.
Depth: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Brandon Guyer, Austin Jackson, Hunter Pence, JB Shuck, Matt Szczur, Chris Young
Trade Candidates
Corey Dickerson’s projected $8.4MM arbitration price tag might be a bit steep for the Pirates, especially considering his pedestrian second half of the season. He’s only controlled for one more year and didn’t have much value in last year’s trade market, though. As noted above, perhaps the Yankees will dangle Gardner ($12.5MM club option), given the depth they have surrounding him.
Arizona’s David Peralta is another productive but at least relatively expensive corner option who could hit the market. With a $7.7MM arb projection and two years of club control left for a D-backs team that’ll have to take a hard look at some degree of rebuild this winter, Peralta is a logical piece to market — especially considering his career year in 2018.
Kyle Schwarber’s name, at this point, feels to be a perennial fixture on the rumor circuit, and while his improved defense in 2018 makes him a better fit for the Cubs (and the NL in general), it also makes him more appealing to other clubs.
The Tigers have reportedly tried to extend Nicholas Castellanos on multiple occasions without success. He only has one year of club control remaining, so perhaps if they can’t work something out this time around they’ll more seriously consider moving him. His glovework is arguably the worst in baseball, but Castellanos can rake at the plate. Sticking in the AL Central, the ChiSox may have to sell low on Avisail Garcia, whose injury woes and dreadful 2018 season make him a non-tender candidate at this point.
Meanwhile, the Padres have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Wil Myers is best suited there or at first base but has been pushed to third by Eric Hosmer’s presence at first base and a bevy of other outfield options, including Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski. It’d be more surprising if the Friars didn’t move an outfielder than if they did.
Rangers GM Jon Daniels has been candid about the possibility of moving a left-handed-hitting outfielder, with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Drew Robinson all fitting that bill. There’s a logjam in Philly, too, where the Phils could look to move any of Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr as they remake their lineup.
Similarly, the Brewers won’t have the luxury of stashing Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana in the minors in 2019, as both are out of options. Either or both could be shopped to other clubs, and the same is true of Eric Thames, who been squeezed out a bit by last offseason’s additions and the emergence of Jesus Aguilar. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cards will very likely be open to moving Jose Martinez, though his defense grades out terribly.
Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler round out this section as albatross contracts their current clubs would jump at the chance to jettison, but it’s hard to see any team taking on that level of overpay. Fowler is owed $49.5MM through 2021, while Ellsbury is owed nearly the same sum ($47.28MM) through the end of the 2020 season.
Hunter Pence is so bad now he doesn’t even get a mention in the depth section.
He’d make such a great bench coach.
He should be in there … adding him now.
He can sit back and count his money with all of his select/showcase teams he’s got his name on.
Hope ATL takes a look at Michael Brantley, he would be an admirable replacement to Kakes. Admittedly, I have no idea what kind of contract he’s seeking, though I can imagine second-tier (?) COFs like Brantley and Pollock are going to be well compensated from those teams that lost out on Harper (and to lesser extent because he’s not a COF, Machado).
I’m hoping for Pollock, but Brantley would be a solid consolation prize
Brantley loves Francona and the Indians organization. And visa versa.
Considering that the Indians don’t have a CF or RF and that the team is not in a rebuilding mode, it’s pretty much a given that the 2 sides will work out a deal.
Oh, they have a CF and a RF. Only problem is they’re both injured.
Sigh…….bring back Kenny Lofton.
Please provide the link to this love fest…
Why not just keep Markakis?
Because Markakis is 34 and hit .258/.332/.369 in the 2nd half.
Im just saying…that OBP is better than 75% of the league so he’ll start in someone’s outfield
Yes he will. But it shouldn’t be for contender.
You are joking, right?
Kakes was the same average to below average player last year, with the exeption of the first month of the season, as he was the last 4 years. He hit sell below average for a corner in in power, and his range is extremely limited at his age. He wont be getting better than the 260 he he hit the second half. Thats not a starter on a contender. Wanting to have a beer with him, doesnt change that.
I would rather see the Braves go after McCutchen for LF, sliding Acuna Jr to RF if we go the FA route. Possibly work a trade with the Pirates for Dickerson for LF as well. Neither should cost all that much. I would offer Cutch 3/45ish with an option on a 4th yr. Or if Dickerson works out, offer to extend him for another 3-4 yrs in the 12-13 mil range. Neither would break the bank, which would allow for other targets. I don’t want to see the Braves anywhere near the Machado/Harper sweepstakes.
Honestly, I hadn’t heard that suggestion, but looking into it – it could make much more sense than the high-dollar value of Pollock. Cutch always has a high OBP, and you’d think that his SLG/OPS would be up nearer to career levels outside of spacious AT&T Park, where he almost has 50% less HRs in ’18. He’d be a great leader for some young buck OFs including Acuña and eventually (presumably) Pache. His defense should be an upgrade in LF at SunTrust than Markakis in RF (moving Acuna over to cover more ground). I, too, don’t want ATL buying Harper a cup of coffee.
Allard & Wentz for Will Myers & Yates who says no ???
braves
This looks like a reversal of the Melvin Upton Jr./Craig Kimbrel salary dump that got ATL Austin Riley (41st overall pick), Matt Wisler & Jordan Paroubeck, where SD took on over $80MM combined in salary, mainly to add Kimbrel. Except ATL would be adding $93MM alone in future salaries from Wil Myers, so they really would need to package a valuable 2 years of Kirby Yates. IF they did that ATL better not be giving up top prospects Allard/Wentz (whom drafted underslot just to sign him the year he was drafted).
I wouldn’t entertain this deal, as it already looks terrible, and Myers still has no position behind Hosmer.
There is a huge difference between Upton (when the Braves traded him) and Myers. Myers can still hit. I am actually hoping the Yankees sign Machado and trade Andujar to the Padres for something like Myers and Yates (with San Diego chipping in a few million of Myers contract). Myers can only stay healthy when he plays first and that is a great big hole in the Yankees lineup. They need a lefty with power to man 1st and Myers would be perfect imho. I am sure my fellow Yankee fans will skewer me for this suggestion.
You know Myers hits right handed right??
Bird/Voit will handle 1B. If Andujar is moved, it has to be for a TOR arm. Besides, not giving up a cheap, cost-controlled guy like Andujar for an overpaid, nothing special Myers and Yates.. Hardest pass.
Cue the “it’s late, I’m tired,” response/excuse.
I would vote this down twice if I could, I think this is too risky, and if they are going to gamble on a Lefty bat, it should be a cheap Bird, who has two years left before he hits free agency, and it seems like all of Voit’s hardwork is paying off, he could be a late bloomer like Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista and others, so to gamble on an often injured underperforming Myers, who has a major contract is prohibitive.
You are really overvaluing Myers and his market if you think you can close to prying someone like Andujar from NYY EVEN if you pair him with a stellar RP Yates AND pay millions on the $93MM Myers is owed. NYY doesn’t need more bad contracts. They are just now getting out from under many of them (and still have Stanton…).
Agree Meyers and that contract no go. Yates nice but not Andular value. Would be happy to see Andular at 1st. Left handed power Harper…? And third see if Donaldson would take a one
Year make good deal. But Corbin is a must over all others.
You just can’t put anyone at First.
@rivera42
You’re not getting a TOR arm for the 2nd coming of Nick Castellanos. A young DH who plays in the field has limited value.
Allard sucks
Allard & Wentz for Renfroe and Yates.
Fowler has a full no-trade clause so even if Cardinals can find a trade partner, it would need his approval.
I’m pretty sure he would approve just about anyone
It isn’t hard to get approval when you tell a guy his other option is stay with a team that doesn’t want him to so he can be the 4th or 5th outfielder.
i have a feeling that if you left it up to Fowler as to whether or not to leave STL, it wouldn’t be that difficult a choice for him…
If you sit Fowler on the bench and give him 1 start a week, he’ll waive that no trade clause real quick.
after the ninth word of teams of need, possibly should be inserted
Chatwood for Fowler
I thought Guyer had a team option?
Matt Kemp is also in the mix here – hopefully the 4 Dodger outfielders are Bellinger, Peterson, Puig and Verdugo
Red Sox all set on corner outfielders.
1916 World Series rematch…coming up!
Jon Jay “extraordainaire???” He takes way too many at bats from better players. He must be the biggest kiss azz in baseball to keep getting playing time. He’s the most overrated player in the game.