This is the second installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market. Today, we’ll turn to the first base position.
Teams In Need
Quite a few organizations went without regulars at the first base position in 2018, seemingly content with timeshare situations. That could again be the case, though it’s also possible that a few tantalizing trade targets might lead to a re-thinking on the part of some clubs.
Among likely contenders, only the Rockies jump off the page with an opening — assuming, at least, that they will move Ian Desmond to an outfield or utility role of some kind. Teams like the Mariners and Twins could arguably stand to add at the position, but also might address it by shuffling existing players.
Of course, others could free up space if they see an opportunity to improve. The Yankees, for instance, will have to decide how much they wish to rely upon Luke Voit (while also considering how their DH and catching situations will play out). The Red Sox, Nationals, and Angels are among the clubs that’ll at least be looking for complementary pieces capable of spending some time in the first base mix.
Free Agents
Likely Regulars: Frankly, there don’t appear to be any in this group — making the trade candidates listed below all the more tantalizing.
Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Steve Pearce has hit a ton in 2018 and deserves a significant role, though he has long been dogged by heath questions. Mark Reynolds proved he can still do damage, while Hanley Ramirez is a wild card. On the left side of the plate, a trio of veterans returns to the open market. Matt Adams collapsed down the stretch but was productive earlier in the year; Lucas Duda did the opposite; Logan Morrison will be looking for a bounceback chance after an injury-plagued campaign. It seems unlikely that Joe Mauer will play anywhere other than Minnesota, but perhaps that can’t be ruled out entirely.
Depth: Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Danny Valencia
Trade Targets
Likely Regulars: The most intriguing name that could be on the market has to be Paul Goldschmidt (1/$14.5MM). It stands to reason that the D-Backs will put him on the block early, seeing whether offers reach a sufficient level to make a move. Another player entering his final year of team control, Jose Abreu of the White Sox ($16MM projected), is perhaps still as much an extension as a trade candidate. Switch-hitter Justin Smoak sustained the better part of his 2017 outbreak this year and will earn a reasonable $8MM in the final season of his contract (his club option value was boosted by escalators). Trading him could offer the Blue Jays a chance to pick up some young talent while clearing the deck for existing young players to get some chances at the MLB level.
There are also some larger contracts worth considering. Wil Myers arguably doesn’t fit the roster puzzle for the Padres, though his deal (4/$64MM plus option) is just about to ramp up in cost. Though the Giants’ remaining obligations to Brandon Belt (3/$48MM) outstrip his present value — particularly after another season in which he missed time and didn’t hit to his typical levels — he’d still represent an interesting target for some clubs, potentially opening the door to some off-the-wall trade concepts. Speaking of which, the Phillies could seek to bail on Carlos Santana (2/$35MM plus option), depending upon how untold other possibilities play out, though they likely won’t find a terribly receptive market. And while an offseason trade remains hard to fathom, it’s still worth remembering that the Tigers could try to move some of their remaining obligations to Miguel Cabrera (5/$162MM plus options) at some point.
Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Despite a strong year at the plate and still-palatable salary, C.J. Cron ($5.2MM projected) seems not to be in the Rays’ plans following the acquisition of Ji-Man Choi. Jose Martinez of the Cardinals (pre-arb) is another quality righty bat that might hold appeal, though his struggles to handle first base defensively may make him a DH-only target.
Teams considering lefty sluggers could take a look at the Phillies’ Justin Bour ($5.2MM projected) or Brewers’ Eric Thames (1/$7MM plus option), depending upon how those organizations proceed. Greg Bird of the Yankees ($1.5MM projected), Dominic Smith of the Mets (pre-arb), and AJ Reed of the Astros (pre-arb) could represent upside plays for the right team if their current orgs decide it’s time to move on.
Send Bird packing. Has had enough chances
That’s my though. 1b might be the yanks biggest weakness and when he plays it 100% is. If they can lock down that position with some pop, that lineup is next to impossible to pitch to. Which they are already tough as it is
“1B might be the Yanks biggest weakness” No that would be starting pitching.
Thames would be a monster for the Yankees with their short runway in right field
lol
Atrocious defense aside (but really most teams are pretty bad at that position) the Yanks got 44 homers and 140 RBI. Both are ranked top 7 in baseball. 1b is problem that looks to have an easy solution. Play Voit and keep Bird and Walker as back ups.
Pitching, a left handed power bat and better contact hitting overall are areas I wish to address. I also think the Yanks SHOULD stick with Andujar and Sanchez but both have to be passionate about improving their defense next year (and Sanchez needs to fix his hitting).
Where are you getting your numbers from? Because Baseball-Reference has the Yankees first base position pegged at .234/34/109. Still nothing to sniff at, but your calculation has them at 10 HRs and 31 RBI more.
Can I play the made up stats game too? Why would the Yankees need a LH power bat? LH hitters on the Yankees hit 119 HR and 400 RBI. Both led the league.
Ok..my bad. I was using a lazy stat which included Neil Walker who had 11 homeruns but not necessarily all were while he played 1b. Also, Tyler Austin who’s no longer with them were included.
Walker @ 11 hrs
Austin @ 8 hrs
Voit @ 14 hrs
Bird @ 11 hrs
That being said, using BRef’s numbers, the 1b (34) position was the 2nd most productive position in terms of homers behind RF(38). Voit will not keep pace as he did this year but I certainly think 25-30 hrs over the course of 600 AB would be reasonable expectations..
.
You criticize me for my stats? Where did you get those numbers?
Didi hit 27
Bird 11
Gardner 12
Hicks 18 (as a LHB)
Walker 10 (as a LHB)
That’s a total of 78. Where did the other 41 hrs come from?
Also, look at the anticipated line up,,,,
Hicks
Judge
Stanton
Voit
Sanchez
Torres
Andujar
Didi
Whether Bird or Gardner return in any meaningful role is debatable. That’s 6 righties and 2 lefties, In Yankee Stadium with the short porch a power hitting lefty makes sense.
What part of “can I play the made up stats game too?” Didn’t you understand?
You’re not making any sense.
First base should be Voit’s job to lose moving forward. However, it makes no sense to trade Bird. He has options left and no one is going to give you much for him. Let him and Voit “battle” (wink, wink) for the 1b job in ST and then send Bird to AAA. Let him gather himself and rebuild his value, at least at that level, and go from there.
The Yankees are fine they just need a couple of Starting Pitchers.
He would probably hurt himself packing his suitcase.
Attention Yankee fans: MLBN is replaying last night’s game so all is not yet lost. I’m writing this because every time I see highlights of the 78 playoff game, I still root for Piniella to not grab the ball when he lunges in the ninth on Remy’s hit and for Yaz to not swing at Goose’s first pitch…
Just win baby ala Al Davis. Sox will then consider resigning Pearce to tandem again with Moreland or Holt. Pearce apparently grew up a Sox fan and considering his production against lefties, it seems likely both sides will want the relationship to continue.
Totally agree.
Add a catcher and relax.
Vazquez looked good in Game 4. Elite defender and hit a HR.
You don’t need a stats happy catcher to win. To have the support of the pitchers is most important and both Leon and Vasquez have that.
G
I’m liking Bird for a buy low pickup for the Rays. Some players cannot handle the bright lights of NYC and Boston. Bird may be one.
What are you proposing? You have piqued my interest
Buy low meaning a lower level prospect as the Rays are loaded. Also meaning Birds value is also lower now.
Bauers is 23 years-old and hits LH.
Why would the Rays want Bird taking a roster space?
The above article pretty much comes down to some potential trades of “my garbage for your garbage”. The PC version is “change of scenery” quickly followed by “the front office has always liked him”.
Good point as I completely forgot about Bauers which actually wasn’t hard as he completely forgot how to hit for the last 3 months.
Bauers is also a superior defender.
If the Rays want a DH/1B type, they need to consider a right-handed hitter since they already have Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers from the left side (even though Bauers could use some more time in AAA since they messed up his swing).
And those can be had for little more than a minor-league contract this offseason.
The Rays will keep CJ Cron! He’s not to expensive, bats from the right side and is very good at defense. Cron was/is a great team player and at 28 yrs old fits in with the rest of the Rays. He’ll be even better next year from 260-30hrs.
Yanks aren’t releasing Bird and they certainly wouldn’t trade him to an AL East team. Cashman still loves Bird and the Yanks need a power bat. Considering how low his trade value is, I see them keeping him in AAA, if needed. Things always seem to work themselves out as far as finding at bats for players at depth positions. Look what happened in the OF. We went to having an abundance of OFers headed into ST (Judge, Hicks, Stanton, Gardner, Frazier, Ellsbury) with McKinney, Cave and Robinson in AAA. Frazier and Ellsbury couldn’t make it out of ST. McKinney gets injured then traded. Cave was traded because they couldn’t protect him and we had depth at the time.
The last thing the Yanks need is a power bat
A power bat that also hits for average and doesn’t strikeout much. Don Mattingly redux.
The Yanks have Didi and Hicks as the only lefties pretty much guaranteed to return next year. A LFH power hitter OF COURSE MAKES SENSE. I’m not saying that they will up root a RH hitter at any of the main positions but LF might be up for grabs and I wouldn’t be shocked if they went after Harper to play LF.
Gee, only a Don Mattingly? Why stop there, when you can wish for a Ruth or a Gehrig?
The point I was trying to make is it’s very hard to find a power hitter that also is a lefty who hits for average and doesn’t strikeout. That said, it’s more important that they fill the position with a high on base guy than another lefty bomber.
Don’t those guys grow on trees and can be had really cheap?
Neglected to include gold glove caliber defense. Moreland’s greatest asset is his defense (remember 2004, Mankeivich – sorry for spelling).
How about pitching from a NL East team? Bird, Frazier, & Sanchez to Braves for Tehran, Kyle Wright & Max Fried? Who hangs up first?
Do people really think trades like this actually take place?
The Yankees should see what it would take to pry Bell away from the Pirates.
An offer of a bag of shag balls and two pairs of socks for Bell sounds about right.
Yankees should have went all in for Justin Smoak. Still can and still should. That stadium would be perfect for him. Good glove at 1B
Also, as a switch hitter, he would provide lineup balance in a very RH hitting lineup.
He’d be ideal in New York.
Which, as a Jays fan, I do not condone!
He totally would, though.
Good calls – nobody is taking Desmond good call on Belt similar to Desmond and Goldie the Dbacks are expecting diamonds in return. Those guys you listed last aren’t even worth a look – Rameriz has been overrated for five plus years reason nobody picked the guy up.
Would The Yankees be interested at all in Justin Bour? He could provide a good left handed platoon bat with Voit, or would that be too similar to Greg Bird?
I don’t think there’s a need to platoon Voit at all.
Disclaimer: Short sample size.
Voit vs RHP career (199 PA)- .278/.362/.511 with 10 of his career 19hrs vs RHP.
His splits are about even on all splits (home vs road, rhp vs lhp)
I think the Angels could be an interesting spot for Carlos Santana. Switch hitter to play 1b (Pujols will probably miss a alot of time), can maybe play some 3rd depending on the day? Eppler has already said they need guys to be on base, and Santana has always been able to do that.
I read that Billy Eppler is going to find his offensive solutions from within the system. Matt Thaiss is more than likely the solution than a free agent signing. However he did say he will be in the market for pitching.
Straight up for Trout. It’s a deal.
Grab another old bat to replace another old bat who can play a crappy 3rd when they already have a 3rd baseman? The Angels need to focus on pitching pitching pitching and not 1st base.
get rid of all the fellas
Trade Fowler for Belt give both a new start
Belt has been good for a while
Removing Belt would give Posey more time at 1B. It’s not the worst idea ever.
I think the point is more belt doesn’t need a change of scenery and Fowler’s been pretty bad for the Cardinals, so how does this make any sense?
Of course Belt needs a change of scenery
Belt is a top 10 first baseman in MLB when healthy. Fowler is worse than Duggar, Slater, and Hernandez
-suggests David Price and Denyi Reyes for Carlos Santana-
-ducks from tomatoes-
I wouldn’t want Price on my ball club
If it means moving Santana and placing Hoskins at 1B, you take it. Doubt Boston would ever consider that.
Does Price have a no trade in that god awful contract he signed or no?
Price is an extremely good pitcher. He’s just overpaid and is changing from power pitcher to a finesse pitcher. The Rays would love to have him back if less than 10 mill per.
On paper the Phillies and Yankees actually match up very well for a Justin Bour trade.
Again, disclaimer on small sample size for Voit. He hit nearly as many HRS as Bour (15 vs 20) in 215 fewer PA. Why would the Yanks make that trade? Bour also had a horrible slash of .227/.341/.404. I think Voit can do AT LEAST that and is cheaper, under more years of control and has developed a fan base in NY.
Chris Davis for a dozen donuts
Replace ‘for’ with ‘including’ and maybe the Yankees will talk, but they want to give you Ellsbury and a sesame bagel in return.
There’s probably only one player more un-tradeable than Ellsbury and that is in fact Chris Davis.
If I’m the Orioles, I take that trade.
5 years left on that miggy deal. That’s reallllly gonna hurt tigers
How does Miggy being on the Tigers hurt them? He works with the other players on hitting (just ask JD). He has had a decent attitude, and can still hit. His salary is the negative, but since it is not stopping the team from signing anyone, it’s a non-factor. Most importantly, he puts butts in the seats, which is important to teams not in NY, Boston or LA.
Don’t understand the comment on Belt. He has produced nearly 4 WAR per 600 at bats in his career. Yes he doesn’t hit HRs like many 1Bs (park is a factor obviously) but WAR is WAR no matter how you get it.
And yes there are injury concerns but hard to blame him for taking pitches and errant warm up throws to the head. All he needs to do over the course of his remaining contract is produce about 2 WAR a year to make it worthwhile. True, he probably wouldn’t net a big return in a trade, but he can certainly live up to the contract.
I have always been a supporter of Belt’s value, so it seems you’re sort of transposing the prior complaints of others into what I wrote here. It’s simply hard to see him as a 3/48 player as a hypothetical free agent right now.
The health problems aren’t his fault, of course, but there’s an accumulation of serious injuries that create real risk. Regarding the hitting, my comment has nothing to do with just adding up dingers. He has been in the 110 wRC+ range over the past two seasons. That’s well off his prior levels.
Can he live up to the deal? Sure. But that doesn’t mean it’s a reflection of his market value right now. That’s especially true given the collapse in value for players who are limited to playing first base.
Yankees need at least two starters, and a competent defensive Catcher. Sanchez and Andujar are in no way part of the new core four.
Yeah because Posada and Jeter were wizards with the gloves. Despite his PB Sanchez still ranks positively at his position. Andujar’s bat makes up for his glove.
Sanchez was not good behind the plate in the ALDS. Anyone watching closely knows whatever the rankings say is complete bull. Sanchez was closer to being a liability back there.
You can argue what you want. The numbers show he’s good at other aspects of catching. That being said, catching the ball is one of the MOST important things a catcher has to do. I would hope that is his main priority over the winter and he SHOULD be the starting catcher next year. That’s where I’m at with it.
Nothing knocks a giant-sized hole in analytics more than the numbers trying to cover up the fact that Sanchez simply misses pitches that no major league catcher should ever fail to catch. The inning in Oakland was the worst defensive inning the game may have ever witnessed
So you’re comparing Andujar to Jeter? OMFG
Is that what I did or did I point out that Jeter was a player who wasn’t exactly a wizard with the glove but was an immeasurably great player nonetheless?
Man I’d love to see the cardinals make a run at Goldschmidt. They have the prospects to do it and would be a good club to take back some salary commitments from the D-Backs if they’re concerned about payroll. Hopefully they’d be able to work out an extension similar to what they did with Holliday as well.
I’d like to see what vogelbach could do with one full season.