As ever, quite a few teams have deals that they would now like to part with — whether because the player isn’t performing as hoped, the organization’s circumstances have changed, or both. In many such circumstances, it’s still possible to imagine deals coming together, with money management playing a key role in the arrangements.
This winter, in particular, it feels as if there are an abundance of possible contract-swapping situations. Accordingly, I decided to pull together a listing of the many players whose deals could conceivably be batted around in conversations that are driven in whole or in part by a desire to clear salary from a team’s books.
This list consists of (mostly) large contracts that (mostly) could plausibly be traded in the right circumstances. A player’s inclusion on this list does not necessarily mean that I believe his contract is under water. In some circumstances, that’s clearly not the case. In others, the deal is so far in the red that a deal is all but impossible to fathom. Regardless, I tried to identify the situations where salary-shaving ideas could help spur a deal, generally erring on the side of inclusion as to players who could conceivably be involved in some dollar-swapping trade scenarios.
Note, too, that I have not considered any arbitration-eligible players (e.g., Sonny Gray and Avisail Garcia) who could conceivably be utilized in certain deals that are heavily driven by financial considerations.
Catchers
- Buster Posey, Giants: $67.2MM through 2021 (includes option buyout; full no-trade)
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Russell Martin, Blue Jays: $20MM through 2019
- Christian Vazquez, Red Sox: $13.55MM through 2021 (includes option buyout)
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Yan Gomes, Indians: $9MM through 2019 (includes option buyouts)
- Jason Castro, Twins: $8MM through 2019
- Welington Castillo, White Sox: $7.75MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Alex Avila, Diamondbacks: $4.25MM
First Basemen/Designated Hitters
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Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: $162MM through 2023 (includes option buyout)
- Chris Davis, Orioles: $102MM through 2022
- Albert Pujols, Angels: $87MM through 2021
- Wil Myers, Padres: $64MM through 2022 (includes option buyout)
- Brandon Belt, Giants: $48MM through 2021 (partial no-trade)
- Carlos Santana, Phillies: $35MM through 2020 (includes option buyout)
- Edwin Encarnacion, Indians: $24MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: $14.5MM through 2019
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Mark Trumbo, Orioles: $13.5MM through 2019
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Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays: $12MM through 2019
- Yonder Alonso, Indians: $9MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Eric Thames, Brewers: $7MM through 2019 (includes option buyout; unknown assignment bonus)
- Justin Smoak, Blue Jays: $8MM through 2019
Second Basemen
- Robinson Cano, Mariners: $120MM through 2023 (full no-trade)
- Rougned Odor, Rangers: $43.5MM through 2022 (includes option buyout)
- Dee Gordon, Mariners: $27.5MM through 2020
- Kolten Wong, Cardinals: $17.75MM through 2020 (includes option buyout)
- Jason Kipnis, Indians: $17MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Starlin Castro, Marlins: $12MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
Shortstops
- Elvis Andrus, Rangers: $58MM through 2022 (opt out after 2019)
- Jean Segura, Mariners: $58MM through 2022 (includes option buyout; full no-trade)
- Brandon Crawford, Giants: $45MM through 2021 (full no-trade)
- Troy Tulowitzki, Blue Jays: $38MM through 2020 (includes option buyout)
- Zack Cozart, Angels: $25.33MM through 2020
Third Basemen
- Evan Longoria, Giants: $74.5MM through 2022 ($14.5MM paid by Rays; includes option buyout; $2MM assignment bonus)
- Kyle Seager, Mariners: $56MM through 2021
- Yulieski Gurriel, Astros: $18MM through 2020
- Martin Prado, Marlins: $15MM through 2019
- Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals: $14MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Todd Frazier, Mets: $9MM through 2019 ($500K assignment bonus)
Corner Outfielders
- Jason Heyward, Cubs: $106MM through 2023 (opt out after 2019)
- Yoenis Cespedes, Mets: $58.5MM through 2020 (full no-trade)
- Dexter Fowler, Cardinals: $43.5MM through 2021 (full no-trade)
- Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers: $42MM through 2020 (full no-trade)
- Ian Desmond, Rockies: $40MM through 2021 (includes option buyout; $1MM assignment bonus)
- Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks: $32.5MM through 2020
- Jay Bruce, Mets: $26MM through 2020
- Alex Gordon, Royals: $24MM through 2019 (includes option buyout; full no-trade)
- Matt Kemp, Dodgers: $21.5MM through 2019
- Kole Calhoun, Angels: $11.5MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
Center Fielders
- Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees: $47.3MM through 2020 (includes option buyout; full no-trade)
- Rusney Castillo, Red Sox: $24.5MM through 2020
- Odubel Herrera, Phillies: $25.5MM through 2021 (includes option buyouts)
- Juan Lagares, Mets: $9.5MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Jarrod Dyson, Diamondbacks: $3.5MM through 2019
Starters
- David Price, Red Sox: $127MM through 2022
- Yu Darvish, Cubs: $101MM (opt out after 2019; full no-trade in 2019)
- Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: $95.5MM through 2021 (full no-trade; $2MM assignment bonus)
- Johnny Cueto, Giants: $68MM through 2021 (includes option buyout; $500K assignment bonus)
- Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers: $50MM through 2020 (partial no-trade)
- Danny Duffy, Royals: $46MM through 2021
- Jake Arrieta, Phillies: $45MM through 2020 (voidable opt-out after 2019)
- Alex Cobb, Orioles: $43MM through 2021 (partial no-trade)
- Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins: $42MM through 2020 (vesting player option)
- Mike Leake, Mariners: $36MM through 2019 ($9MM paid by Cardinals)
- Jeff Samardzija, Giants: $36MM through 2020 (limited no-trade)
- Ian Kennedy, Royals: $33MM through 2020
- Homer Bailey, Reds: $28MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners: $27MM through 2019 (full no-trade)
- Tyler Chatwood, Cubs: $25.5MM through 2020
- Madison Bumgarner, Giants: $12MM through 2019
- Julio Teheran, Braves: $12MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Jason Vargas, Mets: $10MM (includes option buyout; $250K assignment bonus)
- Ivan Nova, Pirates: $8.5MM
- Andrew Cashner, Orioles: $8MM through 2019 (vesting option)
Relievers
- Wade Davis, Rockies: $36MM through 2020 (includes option buyout; $1MM assignment bonus)
- Mark Melancon, Giants: $28MM through 2020 (full no-trade)
- Jake McGee, Rockies: $20MM through 2020 (includes option buyout)
- Bryan Shaw, Rockies: $19.5MM through 2020 (includes option buyout)
- Brett Cecil, Cardinals: $14.5MM through 2020 (full no-trade)
- Tommy Hunter, Phillies: $9MM through 2019
- Juan Nicasio, Mariners: $9MM through 2019
- Darren O’Day, Braves: $9MM through 2019 (limited no-trade)
- Mike Dunn, Rockies: $8MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Anthony Swarzak, Mets: $8MM through 2019
- Pat Neshek, Phillies: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Luke Gregerson, Cardinals: $6MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
- Brandon Kintzler, Cubs: $5MM through 2019
- Brian Duensing, Cubs: $3.5MM through 2019
- Yoshihisa Hirano, Diamondbacks: $3MM through 2019
- Clayton Richard, Padres: $3MM through 2019
- Matt Albers, Brewers: $2.5MM through 2019
- Kazuhisa Makita, Padres: $1.9MM through 2019
Why is Goldschmidt on here?
It’s hard to draw a line. I wanted to include, say, Sonny Gray, and also felt Ivan Nova could fit. Then you have Bumgarner … and while Goldy won’t just be dumped, obviously, the $$$ is a factor in that case — particularly since they have other big money deals that could be swapped around.
So, I included him. But I didn’t include, say, Segura just b/c there isn’t as much direct pressure to do a deal in the latter’s case. As I made clear in the prefatory comments, there are some players on this list that are anything but contract dumps.
EDIT: guess if I’m going to put Goldy and Odubel on there, I ought to include Segura … added him
Hey Jeff, thanks for following up on that. I didn’t read the intro part, probably should’ve done that.
“Accordingly, I decided to pull together a listing of the many players whose deals could conceivably be batted around in conversations that are driven in whole or in part by a desire to clear salary from a team’s books.”
I read the intro and it said that the contract would be at least some factor. For Goldschmidt, every other MLB team would take him at that price. I’m not saying Arizona isn’t trying to trade him, but it is about a future contract and an asset return, not the current contract. He started there, is a franchise cornerstone, a perennial MVP candidate, and you don’t trade that away just to save on one year of $14.5 million. There’s plenty of other money to get rid of before Goldy’s.
If you think that there wouldn’t be some semblance of relief from AZ for shedding an unnecessary 14.5 mil then you must not understand their thinking. I say unnecessary, which may be too strong, because they’re not going to win a playoff spot and to a team that doesn’t have that chance, the extra wins the Goldy provides will not be useful.
lol
What a great article!
It’s human nature – particularly for those that have had others clean up their messes for them – to expect the upside and celebrate it when it happens, but to ignore the downside, and its costs.
The amount of bad contracts seems to increase every year. That’s where large market teams have an unfair advantage – they can survive bad contracts; small and mid-market teams have to be creative and hold their fire on new FA’s until the underperforming ones get off their books.
Mark my words, within 5 years the team(s) that sign Machado and Harper will be on this list.
Agreed. I’ve preached this many times. The Pirates had to trade prospects to get rid of a fairly expensive Liriano contract that didn’t have a lot of length, yet teams like the Red Sox and Dodgers can pay over 20m to guys who aren’t even on the team and keep going after players.
I just think it’s funny when every time these “market value” contracts are signed, people talk about how smart they are, but honestly it’s probably much better to just go year to year in arbitration. Don’t be like the Cardinals who, while they have fantastic development, they offer extensions to anyone who has a good half season.
Totally agree Samuel. Would love to see a new system that forced a floor high enough to get the union’s approval and a hard ceiling to prevent large market team’s from exploiting their wealth. To succeed though, I feel the international rules also need changing so that all talent is drafted with age groups. Perhaps extend the union to include AAA players so that benefits start to be earned at that level. I’m not sure of specifics and understand a lot would need to be worked out and I’m just trying to think outside of the box to get the union on board. It seems like more and more owners now have an interest in their AAA affiliate so it might be doable and I think the union would salivate at expanding their base. Salary and benefit increases at the AAA level would likely in time again raise the MLB floor.
Regarding the signing of free agent veterans, there are 2 possible solutions….
1. Make signing free agent veterans totally free market. No luxury tax. No floor. Of course the players union will fight it. Since arbitration and free agency began the large market teams have been the ones pushing salaries higher and higher. It forces the small and medium markets to overpay for their players.
Example – imagine the government demanding that real estate prices be the same in Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh as they are in San Francisco, Boston, and New York. Then force people and businesses in the smaller areas to buy/lease the same amount of properties as those in the large markets.
In a real free market teams would pay what a player is worth to them. Yes, the better players would head to the large markets. But the better players do not necessarily stay better. The rosters should remain at 25 and 40, with no exceptions for a player under (long-term) contract either stinking or being injured.
If large market teams wanted to create a roster spot by paying 80-90% of an under-performing player’s salary and include prospects in a trade with said player to a low-revenue team, that should be allowed. Teams in smaller markets would be paying the player what he’s worth to them…..and not what an arbitrator and/or the union says he’s worth. Many times poor players get good again.
Of course there is a solution at the opposite end of the spectrum…..
2. Take all revenues from all teams and put them in an escrow account. Then distribute the funds equally to all 30 teams. Now your arbitration and union salary setting would be done on an level playing field.
Gotta largely disagree with you, and with Todd as author.
At 2.0 WAR, per what is theoretically normal pricing of $7M/WAR, Gyorko is exactly priced right for this year, and underpriced if he bounces back to 3 WAR of previous two years. (That said, his contract was in trade.)
Wong? Even if he has just 1.5 WAR again next year, he’s underpriced, and right-priced for 2019.
Now Fowler? Hugely overpriced and I said it was a dumb signing at the time.
Homer Bailey at 28m? If the Reds could swap his contract they would probably throw a party. They’re closer to releasing him and eating it.
That’s probably the “big spending” they are talking about lol.
Of course. But we’ve seen all kinds of terrible contracts moved as a means of facilitating other deals. It’d be silly not to list his contract.
You can swap for Pujols and I’ll have a party
Gray lol
Rusney Castillo, Red Sox
He’s not on the 40-man roster, so maybe he doesn’t meet your criteria. But it’s a big, underwater contract the Sox would love to unload for minimum wage prospects.
They dont care about his money since he doesnt count toward the lux tax
Why wouldn’t he count? According to baseball reference his money is on the team salary
I forget why but it doesn’t count towards the luxury tax.
Probably because he’s not on the big league roster right now
The rule has since changed but Castillo is grandfathered in. As long as he remains in the minors, the salary doesn’t count against the cap. It does however if he gets called up or is traded. That’s why he got his money but is stuck in the minors.
Well, that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be glad to be rid of the obligation if they can do it sensibly. It’s still a lot of coin.
Yeah but it doesn’t count toward the luxury tax as long as he’s in the minors. Not sure exactly why though.
Used to be able to do that, can’t anymore due to rule change.
Sounds like Castillo got grandfather claused.
Believe Yaisel Sierra is also.
Yes, Castillo is grandfathered. Because of that fact, he can’t be moved without the Sox adding any $$$ not moved to their lux tax bill. Given the Tax effect it is hard to imagine any scenario where Castillo gets traded.
It’s the Henry cheating rule. The Sox had other players that they optioned to Pawtucket Prison to avoid tax.
Yeah I will add him, thanks.
I admittedly don’t know much about the details of the CBA but I wonder if Rusney would have grounds to file a grievance for being kept in the minors for so long, especially if he has a better year in AAA this year. You have to think he would have been in the majors at some point over the last 2 years if it weren’t for the money factor. He’s likely to spend most of his career in AAA just because of that contract and that outdated rule
Rusney could have requested his release at any time, but he would have to give up the $$$.
That’s a lot of money to give up. Never happening. Cherington made some great moves while the Sox GM but spending John Henry’s money wasn’t usually one of them. I’m bad too to an extent. While I had no info to comment on Castillo and was vocally screaming at signing Panda, I was actually in favor of signing Hanley at the time. One year of value (2016) just didn’t cut it.
That’s basically a list of “contracts that some executives got yelled at for signing.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if the owner was the one who helped decide to give some of those contracts out and not just the executive.
that’s definitely the case with Pujols.
And probably Davis with the Orioles.
Cabrera too
Yet everyone blames Dipoto
I can’t see the Orioles, Royals, Marlins, etc selling off their bad pitcher contracts. They should be taking on players like those, not giving up prospects to move them.
They wouldn’t necessarily have to trade prospects.
MadBum and Melancon for Teheran, Bryse Wilson, Allard, and Ynoa..
Not really big on offering trades, but would definitely help the Giants get out from some payroll, while adding a current starter, two promising young pitching prospects, and one promising, young pitching prospect on the rise..
Braves get their elusive TOR starter, they get an arm that faired well towards the end of last year, and they also are able to clear up some space from their glut of near-ready young starters, while opening up a spot for either Fried, Soroka, or Toussaint to go alongside MadBum, Folty, Newk, and Gausman..
Meh, idk, any thoughts??
i think it may take a bigger prospect…maybe swap allard for Anderson?
Why do Braves fans year in and year out come up with these Teheran trade scenarios?
They been trying to sell this guy for it seems like years but reality is last year a few Braves fans, not all to be fair, tried pushing him as a future top rotation arm and had him in fantasy deals every 10 seconds for every teams best young stars!!!
Wasn’t a fan then, wouldn’t want him now for a few fringe prospects with upside now!
Teheran is very average unless hes facing my mets then hes cy young
The Giants aren’t looking to move Madbum for payroll savings, they’ll want that and a legit return. The problem is Teheran isn’t good and Allard sucks. Yes I know prospects don’t always perform right away, but Allard doesn’t have the velocity or the stuff to get much better. And Wilson is a high floor low ceiling 4th SP type. Anderson does get you much closer, but I still think it takes more, otherwise the Giants will wait it out and expect his value to increase before the deadline. I see what you’re trying to do here, but this looks more like Madbum for the Braves spare parts. Looks like your a Braves fan really, although your suggestion isn’t outlandish, I think it’s not nearly enough. There just isn’t a piece in that trade with significant value on the Braves side.
Problem is that the Mariners set the standard for a starter, and a near Ace or #2 (which is what bumgarner is) with TWO years of control is worth one top 25 prospect.
Bumgarner has one year of control, so he’s worth less.
Yeah but the Mariners had a lot more pressure to move Paxton then the Giants do at this point, and Bumgarners down years are closer to Paxton’s up years. I just think the Giants have to get what they’re looking for or wait for the deadline and hope he shows dominant stuff again.
I also think that a legit top 25 guy and other solid pieces may get you close on MadBum, the problem with this offer is no one coming from the Braves is any good at all. They’re all guys that have been overvalued. And if the Giants are trading MadBum what possible interest could Teheran be for 1 year? Teheran has no value at his current contract and he’s a rental. He’s not very good and costs real money.
Hope the Giants like losing him for nothing but a draft pick then.
Yeah I think SF has to trade him by the deadline. But there’s a good chance his value is lower now than it will be then. Get your offer, and if it’s not a game changer now, take the chance that his value improves then.
There’s nothing in this Braves offer they’re gonna say, damn, we missed out, I wish we had that guy.
On what planet is a full season of Bumgarner + the QO comp pick worth less than 2 months of Bumgarner and no comp pick?
At the point where supply and demand (lack of decent pitchers available at the deadline you can just sign for money and no prospects, which is the trade deadline) crosses MadBum pitching somewhere near where he was before the two injuries. Then he’s worth a ton more.
MadBum had a 3.26 ERA on the season (and would have been a lot lower if not for a bad month in September). I don’t think anyone is concerned about the injuries.
I would be from two straight years. Not so much the line drive as the shoulder. He was up and down last year, if he gets halfway between there and where he used to be they’ll get more.
One of his injuries was from falling off a dirt bike. The other was from getting hit by a pitch. He is not an “injury risk.” No team is concerned about him getting injured again.
I would be concerned about the actual damage and hardly pitching for two years, not being injury prone. Specifically, is his shoulder the same?
Bumgarner is NOT the same pitcher he was just a few seasons ago. Besides all the starts he has missed, his peripheral stats show definite decline. Yes, he may rebound, but there is more risk than there was after his 2016 season. That SHOULD drive down the price.
Now the trick is for the Giants to find a buyer who still values Bumgarner the same way. I’m not so sure that they do.
If they don’t they wait for the deadline and hope he rebuilds his value.
Bumgarner is still a beast and will prove it once again come next season. Any team serious about winning the WS next year, better be prepared to make the Giants a respectable offer. His leadership and resume alone, plus only being 29, is worthy of a quality trade.
Age is not as important as innings pitched. Madbum is over 1700 innings in his career. GM’s start to worry about production when a starter reaches 1500.
The Braves are a team that I’d love to see Bumgarner on of traded.
I don’t think Odubel Herrera is a “Contract Swap Candidate.” His contract seems extremely reasonable and it’s still got 3 years on it. He had a down year but still. I’d be pretty pissed if the Phillies tried to swap his contract out with pretty much anybody on this list…at least the other ones that might get swapped (the Giants ain’t swappin’ out Bumgarners contract.)
I’d take Greinke for Odubel. That’s about it.
As I said, a player’s inclusion does not indicate that the deal is under water. The point isn’t that they’d swap his contract for someone on this list, it’s that it could be sent out as part of the money/talent work-out of a deal. So, to make this list useful for people who want to consider scenarios, I included him and a few others.
Thanks for the great list. My thought: If the deal isn’t under water idk why you’d consider it a candidate for a swap. I guess my philosophy on that list would be different.
It’s hard to say authoritatively on some of these deals. In some cases, they aren’t necessarily under water but a team would want to be rid of the deal due to other constraints. I mostly wanted this to be a resource for people who want to think about how the money could balance out in structuring hypothetical trades, so, as I said, I erred on the side of inclusion.
So theoretically, the Phils could add Avila,Greinke,and Dyson, send back Odubel and a Romero/Suarez type…??
All those Rockie bullpen arms show you cant just sign arms to make a super pen. Over 80 million in vad contracts yikes
Most pitcher can’t pitch in Denver some mental other high altitude and big outfield.
I hope the Marlins trade Castro for prospects. I want them to get even more for the Stanton trade. Never judge a trade by its cover.
Why do you care?
Cuz Derek gets criticized a lot for the return and I’m a Derek fan.
The fact that even his fans say they need to get a lot for Starlin Castro just to justify the return kinda’ makes the criticism seem warranted…
The fact the marlins got rid of a 300 mil dollar commitment they won the trade I don’t care if Stanton hit 70 HRs
The Stanton trade was all about unloading a ton of salary and he did that. Now the Yelich trade was truly awful. Obviously no on knew he’d be the MVP, but it was very obvious at the time that was a light return for Yelich and his great contract.
Bingo to both of you. What many don’t realize is a) the team was being sold before the big money years kicked in and b) the team would have sold for even more if it weren’t for the Stanton contract as hard to believe as that sounds.
How come Crawford is even mentioned? I wouldn’t think the Giants would even consider trading him, but even if they did he has a full NTC and has stated he wouldn’t want to move anywhere. He was born and raised in the Bay and resides there in the offseason. Plus it’s not like the giants are in a tight spot financially. Just don’t think it’s necessary to put his name next to the likes of Carlos Santana, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Jason Heyward.
Because Jeff is being real.
I noted his NTC. Many of the guys on this list are not really plausible trade candidates. But drawing lines is hard, and that’s a big contract that the Giants would probably wish away if that was possible. I included all the major Giants salaries b/c I expect that Zaidi will be open-minded and creative in trying to find ways to deal with their roster issues.
Baer himself has stated that Posey and Crawford aren’t up for trade, and this was stated after the 100 loss season and near the trade deadline last season. It just doesn’t make sense for me to see his name next to Belt, Melancon, even Bumgarner when their situations are completely different. If Crawford is on here, you might as well just put Posey on here too.
He also indicated that he’s giving Zaidi free reign and things change. I doubt Crawford is quite as dear to the new front office as he is to some fans.
Posey, Votto, and Pedroia were ones I struggled with and ultimately decided not to include. I’ll keep thinking about Buster.
Thanks, from what I’ve read Posey and Crawford are in the same category. It’s just a bit awkward to see Crawford on here, which would indicate the Giants being full on “tear-down” mode, but to have Buster excluded from that.
Great article. I really enjoyed the read.
As a Giants fan, I’m eagerly waiting for an influx of young talent. I’d listen to trade offers for everyone. I’m curious as to why other teams aren’t that high on Bum and Posey? Both would be fabulous mentors and could still lead a team into the playoffs. Top notch leaders for an up and coming team. Atlanta would be perfect.
I bet Posey wouldn’t draw much interest. He’s really declined in recent years, and has a ton of mileage. If they could get major salary relief they should dump Buster. It’s a business and the Giants are a bad team with a terrible farm system. They need to rebuild the whole system.
Not enough team control left to warrant a high return on Bumgarner and the Posey injury may end his catching days. It’s a shame, I’m a big fan of both.
To judge by the comments I read in response to Red Sox articles, I’d say Pedroia merits inclusion by popular demand.
Not that this is relevant to your list, but any season the Sox trade Pedroia is one I will boycott the team. I would be furious and disgusted. As far as I’m concerned, Pedroia gets to ride out his contract in whatever way he wishes. He gave Boston a hometown discount, and I’m 100% sure if he could play, he would play hard. As a fan, he’s earned my loyalty.
As a Giants fan, I agree. I’m eagerly waiting for the new regime to start “ blowing it up”
Why do so many not see this?
Their Panda Hats are obstructing their view.
Kipnis to the Rockies for Bryan Shaw or Kipnis and Alonso to the Mets for Jay Bruce.
The money is very similar in both cases but the Indians would spread out the money over two years instead of one, and get players they at least have familiarity with.
I don’t know why the Indians would do that. If your trying to get rid of a crappy contract why on earth would you spread it out multiple years you want to get rid of it ASAP. You can get corner OF for a couple mil who do what Bruce does and better.
If anything, I’d expect the Rockies or Mets to be the ones not interested. The Indians have more money coming off the books next year (Edwin being the biggest example), and that would help them cover whatever they’d owe to Shaw or Bruce in 2020.
Also, the notion that teams always want to get rid of money as soon as possible isn’t true. Sometimes a team needs more flexibility right now, and that’s literally the whole point of the stretch provision in the NBA.
I could see Kipnis for Shaw possibly happening if the Rockies wanted to clear the salary after this year instead of 2. Also might work since Francona really liked having Shaw and Kipnis would be a 1 year stop gap if your prospects aren’t ready yet. The money Colorado saves next year could go towards a possible Arenado extension as well.
Can’t see the Bruce deal though. It would free up money for Cleveland this year but they already have too many left handed outfielders with injury issues as options without bringing another in.
The Shaw deal would be the option I’d prefer anyway, and the Mets deal is less of a fit since Yonder Alonso would just be an overpriced bench bat if they plan on giving Peter Alonso the job.
So I agree with you, but Alonso isn’t any worse of a fit for them than Bruce is, and it’s clear they already have at least a shred of interest in Kipnis dating back to last offseason. In that case, Alonso would basically just be included to even it out a little.
I do think Kipnis for Shaw would be perfect for both sides though.
Uh, what?
Pointless. You are now suspended.
No, I don’t think the Indians would do that. They would be taking on money, long term and in the case of Bruce would be trading their 1b with no obvious replacement.
I might see kipnis and Encarnacion to Texas for Choo. The Indians would be spreading about $42 m over two years while the Rangers would be paying the money over one. This gives Cleveland roster flexibility this year and next and allows Texas to gets money off the books quicker.
The Indians might have to add a player to make the trade work in baseball terms.
I think the list is great, I just don’t know why Crawford would be on here and Posey wouldnt. They both are in the same boat as far as I know, they are both “untouchable” if the list is assuming that the status isn’t relevant or important, just include Posey as well because assuming the Giants are listening on Crawford, they’d be listening on Posey.
Posey is a historically good player who ended the 2018 season with major hip surgery. Significantly harder to move him right now, from a baseball/business perspective.
As far as the no-trade element, I do not wish to make any assumptions for a list like this.
EDIT: whatever, I’ll add him, but I think there’s a tiny chance of a Crawford trade vs virtually none on Buster
Thanks. If you wanted to know where I get most of my reasoning this article sums up the Giants roster as far as trade availability perfectly. google.com/amp/s/www.sfchronicle.com/giants/jenkin…
Suffice to say I disagree with his characterization of Crawford as an in-prime star. Regardless, he’s still much more plausible as a trade candidate than is Posey (again, w/out weighing the NTC issue).
I bet if you ran a poll VERY few would see Crawford as an in their prime star.
There’s no way that the Giants new front office wouldn’t jump at a do-over on both the Crawford and Belt deals. The idea that Crawford is untouchable is nothing but sentimentality run amok.
Good God it’s great to see another level head
Crawford is a good player in all, but he doesn’t excite me at all, especially on that contract. The Giants has a great run with these guys, but that run is clearly over and paying for the past is the dumbest thing you can do in professional sports.
I’d bet a lot of money Buster has less trade value than Crawford. He’s regressed big time in recent years, and has a ton of mileage. The whole legacy thing is idiotic if the Front Office only cares about what’s best for the organization. Any smart fan knows Buster’s best days are behind him and the Giants are going no where unless they build up their system and free up cap.
When a rival team makes a huge signing, I’m generally happy. That team has a short window, then they’re in trouble.
I loved the Pujols deal. I love the Cano deal.
You should always want every team to sign big free agents. Means your team won’t have a god awful contract.
Cano for Pujols deal, who says no?
Robinson Cano, who has five years and $120 million remaining on his contract, has posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $99 million, over the past three seasons with a Steamer projection of 3.0 WAR in 149 games next year.
Albert Pujols, who has three years and $87 million left, has posted a negative 1.4 fWAR, valued at a negative $10.5 million, over the past three seasons with a Steamer projection of 0.1 WAR in 138 games next year.
Pujols is two-and-a-half years older than Cano.
Seattle says no.
Cano at least can still produce at least something. Pujols has bee rated one of the worst regulars in baseball for like 3 years running. Pujols has been washed up for years. Maybe they can work out some sort of a buyout. All Pujols is doing at thins point is bringing his career averages down and is pretty much a joke.
I was suggesting a Sonny Gray, Chance Adams, and another fringe prospect with Elsbury contract if he waives and had full insurance for Grienke contract if he waives.
Now I rather as a Yankee fan just sign Corbin and Kikuchi who will cost much less then Grienke and give us another lefty and Elsbury can stay on injured reserve for all I care or maybe try and some how contribute as a needed left handed bat.
That’s Kikuchi who will cost less, not Corbin…..
Corbin will cost less than $35m/year. Unless of course they take Ellsbury for Greinke. Then, it’s breaking about even.
Per year, yes. Corbin isn’t signing for the 3 years that Greinke is locked in for.
I don’t get these Yankees fans. Greinke doesn’t have negative trade value. His contract is expensive but only three years. His last year may suck but he is fine right now. Ellsbury has huge negative trade value. It will take a positive return to get Greinke, legitimately a valuable piece or more.
Grienke’s contract is bad. The DBacks will have to eat a ton of money to move him, guaranteed.
No, I don’t even think they do move him unless they get a high quality return. Greinke was very good last year and there’s few quality pitchers available. I’m not a DBacks fan at all either. Greinke’s deal isn’t a value or anything but versus free agent pitchers contracts, his 3 years are palatable. I think they will eat some money to increase the return, but I do think they get a real return for him, maybe a lower top 100 prospect or close, and a lower level guy with some ceiling, that’s assuming they eat $20 million or so of the $95. If Yankees fans think they’re getting a straight dump I think it’s wishful big market thinking.
Dude, Greinke has been worth almost 9 fWar over the last 2 years. Even at $95.5/3, there’s not close to a dump here. This Ellsbury stuff is nonsense. At full price I think you’re giving up a real prospect.
Ells might be willing for Arizona but Greinke will never come to NY.
Your post assumes that the D-Backs would actually have to pay Ellsbury $47M. But if Ellsbury is insured, they don’t. They only have to pay for the time he’s actually healthy, which should be very little. In fact, his injury is severe enough that he might never take the field again.
So there’s a good chance the Yankees could make a straight swap. Maybe take on the $5M 2021 buyout, because that isn’t insured.
If the Yankees have a Jacoby Ellsbury insurance policy that could transfer to a new team, I suspect Ellsbury would have been traded long ago.
Also, teams never insure for the full value of the deal. 75% is very cmmon.
I can see better options for the Yanks dealing Gray to Cincy!
That would be the best trade scenario for Gray. Plus the Yankees do have a familiarity with Cincinnati’s system.
I still don’t think Gray nets much at all, and I think a little money comes off.
The Yankees have 6 suitors or whatever because they’ve basically said they’ll deal him this offseason. I don’t expect it to be much at all
Last reported count of suitors was 11.
FYI… Justin Smoak’s salary is $8 million, not $6 million. He reached incentives to bump it up.
Keep forgetting that, thanks.
I would love the Tigers to speed up the rebuild and make a couple trades for bad contracts. Pick up Heyward, let hum play center this year then move to right when Castellanos leaves. Trade for Santana to play first. Maybe try and get JP Crawford from them too at short. The farm is way too young for these guys to be blocking anyone.
I love this idea
But then I’m a Cubs fan, so anybody who wants Heyward is welcome to him as far as I’m concerned
Hey, when you have guys like Mahtook and Jacoby Jones starting in your outfield, you will wish for Heyward. Mike Gerber and Ty Collins were our “prospects” that we hoped would step up… They failed miserably.
Another contract the Tigers could eat is Jake McGee. Tigers always need a lefty reliever and McGee might benefit leaving Coors field. Tigers could also take on Ian Desmond if they think he could still play second. Tigers could send some mediocre prospects, but they’d want a better prospect back… maybe Terrin Vavra? Vavra’s father works in the Tiger front office. I would think the Rockies would jump at getting rid of either of these two, so adding a prospect shouldn’t be an issue.
Tigers dont have a single player or prospect the Cubs would want. I’d rather keep Heyward for 5 more years. Which seems likely more and more now. People act like he has the worst contract of all time. They never mention Alfonso soriano or derek lee or aramis Ramirez. All. 3 refused trades to winning teams throughout their contracts. They knew with lou they could do what ever they wanted. 3 of the most laziest players ever.
90% of the comments I’ve read from Cub fans is they want to get rid of Heyward for ANYTHING. Just dump the contract. I would assume if the Cubs went after Harper and signed him…. they’d be eager to dump Heyward’s contract. That’s where the Tigers could pick him up if they just pick up the remainder of his contract.
How is it that Pedroia, Price, and Vazquez are all omitted. I know the Red Sox won the series but I’m sure if they had the opportunity they would love to get out from out of these contracts.
They would swap Pedroia’s three years out for Castro’s one year considering that Pedroia isn’t likely to play a full season. I’m sure just about any of the pitchers on the list could be swapped for Price and any of the relievers on a one year deal would land Vazquez.
Vazquez might be worth including, but only if they make a catching acquisition. I decided not to include Adam Eaton on that reasoning. I simply can’t imagine the Sox trading the other two players right now, but I suppose I’ll include Price on the same reasoning of some other players that are on here. I think Pedroia is a special case.
Obviously if Pedroia can still play they won’t be trading him, but if he’s done wouldn’t it make sense to trade him along with cash to cover the part of his contract that isn’t insured to a team like the Marlins that doesn’t have luxury tax issues? If they can get most of his contract off the books then it would help them sign some of their upcoming free agents.
Pedie is also a ten and five player.
Pedroia won’t be traded he is the face of the franchise and a very good mentor to the younger players, like Devers
Bpston first baseman Mitch Moreland at $6.5 million through 2019 is a better swap candidate than Justin Smoak at $8 million through 2019, especially with the Red Sox signing Steven Pearce.
Muskie. Sox signed Pierce to platoon in 19 with Moreland who gives great defense and is a clutch hitter. They are very happy with $13m in the two players.
If Ellsbury is insured, Cano for Ellsbury makes a lot of sense (with the Mariners eating Cano’s salary for 2023).
Yankees get a useful player to replace a useless one, and the Mariners save a lot of money.
Yes, this really does.
Curious, why no Hosmer? His numbers last year were decidedly uninspiring and his team won 66 games.
Good call. Hosmer should be on the list
One year into that deal, after all it took for that org to do it, I just can’t see it.
I get that. Curious, where do you think the tipping point on most long-term contracts are? Obviously, some are just poorly conceived from the start, but I suspect most deliver solid play at the beginning. Are there any published studies?
Hey Jeff, I believe Greinke is owed $105M (both baseball-reference and cot’s say the same thing: $35M/year, next three years.
His actual salaries are 95.5 (31.5, 32, 32). They are spreading his bonus out. It is due annually, but I don’t know that I’d assume the D-Backs or possible trade partners really view it as being in play for talks. Of course, a big piece of the salary is deferred.
It’s a sort of complicated structure. But I don’t like tacking signing bonus back into the annual salaries to reach a single sum. Regardless of how it’s represented, he’s not worth even the 95.5 + 2.
Rockies and Phillies would be a good match. Trade Desmond for Santana, Rockies get a real 1B and the Phillies can put Desmond in left and move Hoskins back to 1B
Excellent suggestion…both players are better than their raw numbers show…and would be better fits in different locales, specifically those locales.
Yes, this also makes quite a bit of sense.
It kind of feels like the only portion of a potential trade here that makes any sense is a positional change. Santana has some value albeit not much even after a horrific April. Desmond has zero and is still more expensive. Desmond also has an extra year and a buyout. Desmond is a by far less valuable,even if he were a plus defensive mif, being such a below average hitter in a hitters paradise. Seems more like Santana could fake it in LF and be more value than Desi playing in LF or 1b.
It’s not a good trade at all. Desmond is a worse hitter, more expensive and has an extra year on his contract. He’s been a substantially below average hitter.
Excellent list; a lot of thought obviously went into it (and I thought you were eating turkey all day yesterday). And oh, Posey and Pedroia aren’t going anywhere…hard stop. Ain’t happenin’…..And if they both slash .200/.300/.400 next year, they still won’t be traded next winter. Hard stop.
The best thought on the thread was the gentleman who suggested the Tigers (or the O’s, IMHO) can use this list to eat a bad deal and build prospect capital. They both have the money (yes even the O’s; the MASN bill must be more than covered by their lack of International spending the past 4 years). And a team like the Rays can get a Trumbo, say, for very little, and even have the O’s pick up some of the deal.
And there’s some bounce back candidates. Kipnis isn’t a bad player; just may be the kind of guy who doesn’t pay as much attention when his money is already in the bank (that happens A LOT). But it’s a contract year for Jason, and he may not want to be a Wal Mart greeter just yet. Have the Injuns eat half and include a decent prospect (like always, they have pitching in the minors) and it could be a real win-win.
Posey is still a .300 hitter with an absolute command of a pitching staff, especially come playoff time.
I agree on the quality of the list. As a Giants fan, I’d love for them to grab Wil Myers from the Padres. That dude kills us in AT&T park.
At this point no one would want to deal for Posey until it is known how he does coming off hip surgery. It is very unclear how significantly the surgery affects his mobility and endurance behind the plate. Usually hip surgery goes quite well, but it is not unknown for people to have major issues afterwards.
Yeah Posey has declined a lot recently. He’s just not nearly as good. The Giants would have to eat at least half his contract and obviously they wouldn’t do that.
Choo is a 10 and 5 guy as of the end of 2018 season so it is a full no trade from Rangers.
Good call, thanks.
Todd frazier for Eric Thames
Neshek and Odubel hahaha
I even bolded the sentence explaining that I’m not saying each of these players is not worth his contract. They are both potential candidates to move, with a salary balancing element playing a major role.
Neshek: mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/dodgers-trade-rumors-in…
Odubel: mlbtraderumors.com/2018/09/east-notes-phillies-qui…
mlbtraderumors.com/2018/09/looking-ahead-to-philli…
Well, both play positions the Phillies need and neither’s contract is a burden to the Phillies given their current payroll state.
How about Cozart for Longoria? The Giants need to and want to dump Longoria’s contract. The Giants get a guy who can play anywhere on the infield. The Angels get someone who can still play solid defense at third. The Angels also get someone who can help with Ward’s development at third base. Have Ward play first base and third base. Give Pujols and Longoria for days off. I know Longoria isn’t the player he once was, but it would be more production at third the Angels have gotten over the past few years.
Don’t see any reason for the angels to swap Cozart for longloria. Talent is close at this point and cosart is about 35m cheaper. Heck I wanted the Giants to sign cozart to play 3rd last off-season. Would have saved the Giants a ton of money.
Think Cozart is significantly better even.
Cozart better at what? Being on the DL? Oh I know errors? Cozart numbers for his career where inflated from playing in a ban box. The Angels are stuck for two years at 12.5 million a year of Chad Pennington. But he can only hit from one side of the plate. Cozart only has had one season of being good, his walk year. Moustakas would have more sense. And would have been cheaper.
Don’t disagree that Moose makes more sense. We’ll see about Cozart, but neither are good. They both suck, I just felt Cozart had contributed more lately and has a chance for more in the future. It’s been a while since Longoria has been worth anything.
So pretty much every contract
I wouldn’t really consider Neshek a contract swap candidate. He’s been pretty solid the last few seasons, and this year aside from injury.
Hi Jeff- uh how is Eric hosmer not on Here? I ask cause i see miggy and davis. Also what about Makita from the Padres?
Also guys like Mike Stanton- Addison Reed? Salvador Perez at catcher?
Jorge soler?
Brandon Drury 3B?
Ryan Braun?
Matt Carpenter? 1B/3B?
Brandon Morrow RP cubs? Jon Lester SP? Jose Quintana SP?
Cesar hernandez 2B phillies?
Jose Abreu 1B white sox? Josh Reddick astros OF? Joe Smith RP astros?
You’re just naming relatively large contracts … I was trying to come up with players that made some degree of sense as trade candidates or that were hopelessly underwater.
Hosmer doesn’t fit b/c he’s one year into a deal (a highly regrettable one, no doubt).
Jeff – I posted this as a separate comment, but thought I’d reply to you here as well:
Mike Leake’s deal is through 2020, not 2019. Mutual option in 2021.
How does Jose Abreu not “make some degree of sense as a trade candidate?” He’s one year out from free agency and playing for a team that probably won’t contend this year. The White Sox FO honestly should have traded him a long time ago.
Heyward to the M’s for Cano or some combination of Heyward, Darvish, Chatwood, for Cano, King Felix, and Seager with whatever side that is short on value making it up with someone else.
Hayward for Leake and Seager may be doable.
Leake is almost as bad as chatwood.
Jason Heyward, who has five years and $106 million remaining on his contract, has posted only 4.0 fWAR, valued at $32.9 million, over the past three seasons while Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 2.4 in 138 games.
Robinson Cano, who has five years and $120 million remaining on his contract, has posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $99 million, over the past three seasons while Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 3.0 in 149 games.
Kyle Seager, who has three years and $56 million remaining on his contract, has posted 10.3 fWAR, valued at $84.1 million, over the past three seasons while Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 2.6 in 149 games.
I suspect Seattle would have absolutely no interest in Jason Hayward when the Mariners in right field have Mitch Haniger, who will return at a league minimum salary after posting 4.6 fWAR, valued at $36.7 million, this year..
I figured someone would logically tear it apart. Well done (truly) and thanks for taking the time. 🙂
Christian Vazquez, Paul Goldschimct? Wtf
Mitch Moreland, Blake Swihart, Eduardo Nunez,, Michael Chavis and Rusney Casttillo
for
JT Realmuto, Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado
This guy has to be a troll… this trade is so ridiculous he’s not even a good troll.
Not too bad if a high level pitching prospect like Jay Groome was included instead of Rusney Castillo. See where you are going though with the bad contracts so with the Marlins it may work.
Jeff – Mike Leake’s deal is through 2020, not 2019. Mutual option in 2021.
Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw
for
Carlos Santanta
Yup, thought so. Like the Phillies want two high-priced relievers for Santana’s 2 years…
Jeff,
Of the three Sox’ players listed, I Castillo on the list. Money would likely have to go with any trade and if he were to be on another MLB roster, would that mean the Red Sox contribution would be added to the luxury tax calculations? Also Vasquez’s bat is not up to his contract but he made key playoff contributions at the plate and sometimes the stats don’t measure up with reality. The combo of Leon and Vazquez was worth more to the Boston staff than any sabermetrics category could show. Anyone remember Leon’s ball blocking in the beginning of the playoffs? Teams like Boston, Houston and the Yankees have plenty of offense. Unless Sanchez hits playoff bombs consistently (which he has the ability to do), Yankee fans will always worry about a passed ball causing the end of their season should it happen in the playoffs. Truth be told, I had the same worry this past season with Devers and Nunez at third. Fortunately there never was a potential lose and the season ends game for Boston i. 2018.
If I remember right Dustin Pedroia is a 10&5 guy which means he can’t be traded without his permission
Chris Davis for zack grienke straight up lol I don’t think anybody wants Chris Davis man is he BAD I just want him out of Baltimore clearly a owner signing
Thinking about both a financial and talent based trade with the Cubs. The Cubs are overloaded with outfielders and the Braves are flush with starting pitching. Chicago would send Jason Heyward (5/106) and Carl Edwards Jr. (Super 2, 1st Arb) to Atlanta for Julio Teheran (1/11.2) and Darren O’Day (1/9). The transaction is budget neutral in 2019, but Chicago moves an $86Million contract off its books for 2020-2023. Chicago gets a mid-range reliever and starter for one year (two with Teheran’s team option for 12 million). Braves get right-fielder who had some of his best years in Atlanta for one year and up to five if Heyward does not opt out after 2019. Atlanta also picks up a bullpen arm in Edwards, Jr. for taking on $86Million.
No way Atlanta takes on even half of Heyward’s money.
Looking over some of the ostensibly least tradable contracts, there might be a match between the Jays and Cubs on Chatwood and Tulowitzki. The Cubs owe Chatwood $25.5MM through 2020. The Jays owe Tulo $38MM across the same span. If the Jays take Kintzler ($5MM) and/or Duensing ($3.5MM), that might work.
The Jays would get to turn the page on an aging player who missed all of 2017 and on whom they clearly are not counting. Instead, they’d have a few pitching turnaround candidates they could take a chance on with hopes of flipping them at the deadline.
The Cubs would turn three questionable contracts into the annual Tulo lottery ticket. If he’s healthy, they have a replacement for Russell and maybe even the impact bat they need. If not, their dead money stays dead and they’re not especially worse off.
What about the cubs trading Heyward to the giants for Cueto + Samardjzia. The money’s about right. The cubs might have to throw in a rotational piece as well. But the cubs pull a dodgers-Braves trade from last year. Move 1 5/100+MM for 2 under 5 same amount of money. They have a higher AVV but get rid of it quicker. Just in time for when Bryant, Baez, and other cubs are needing extensions.
Why would the Cubs want Samardzija back. They got a top 4 ss for him plus even though he’s no longer with the Cubs organization billy McKinney as well. No way in hell the Cubs trade Heyward for garbage starters
Cueto has his moments. He’s hit and miss.
Samardzija is terrible.
Detroit is in deeeeep waters with Cabrera’s contract but a least he played his best years with ‘em.
Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis and Albert Pujols are the only players I think are unmovable.
2B Jason Kipnis for CF Rusney Castillo
Solid list but is there really more than an 0.5% chance Posey gets traded?
Jason Heyward isn’t going anywhere
Tyler Chatwood nobody wants but the Cubs need to trade him even if it’s for cash.
I can see Evan Longoria get traded. Maybe in a package with Brandon Crawford. No one wants Samardzija either. Could wla 3 team trade. Longo and Crawford to the cardinals for Bader, Samardzija to the Marlins for starlin castro. The cardinals need an upgrade at short and 3rd, they get have a crowded outfield they would reluctantly part ways with Harrison Bader. And the giants replace Crawford with starlin castro.
Would that trade work for all teams?
Giants get Castro and Bader
Cardinals get Longoria and Crawford
Marlins get Jeff Samardzija
maybe add cervelli to the list? with diaz stepping up pretty big last season, the pirates could get by. his injury history might drop him as a swap candidate?