Tarik Skubal Wins Arbitration Hearing

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has won his arbitration hearing against the team, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll be paid a record-shattering $32MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility and, in doing so, radically alter subsequent arbitration earnings for top-tier starting pitchers with five-plus years of big league service. The Tigers had submitted a $19MM figure, which was more in line with traditional arbitration earnings for elite starters. Skubal is represented by the Boras Corporation.

It’s a landmark decision that narrowly tops Juan Soto’s record $31MM salary (the most ever for an arb-eligible player) and absolutely shatters David Price’s longstanding record for arbitration-eligible pitchers. Coincidentally enough, Price was also a Tiger when he set that record, though the two sides came to terms without requiring a hearing; he settled on a $19.75MM salary for the 2015 season — a record that stood for more than a decade.

Skubal’s case was the most fascinating arbitration case in history. He and agent Scott Boras leveraged a clause in the CBA that allows players with five-plus years of major league service time to compare themselves not to prior arbitration precedents but to open-market prices for free agents. We haven’t seen a player try to break the conventional arbitration system in this way despite that clause’s presence, but Skubal’s consecutive Cy Young Award wins in the American League emboldened his camp to shoot for the moon.

It bears emphasizing that this clause pertains to players entering their final season of club control. For instance, while Paul Skenes will very likely file for a record salary for a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher next offseason, he’s not going to submit a $30MM+ figure. He’d have no chance of winning. Rather, Skenes and his camp will likely look to move the needle forward beyond the current record for a first-time-eligible pitcher: Dallas Keuchel’s $7.25MM salary on the heels of his own AL Cy Young win back in the 2015-16 offseason.

Many onlookers marvel at the Tigers offering what appears to be a (relatively) low $19MM salary for Skubal’s final season. There’s a sentiment among fans that Detroit should have submitted a figure in the mid-20s, but that’s not how teams approach arbitration. Clubs generally fight tooth and nail to keep arb prices down — hence hearings over gaps of $200K or so every winter — because arbitration has historically been based entirely on past comparables within the same service class as the player in question. It’s not realistic to think any team would have willingly offered to move the needle for a service class forward by some $5-6MM.

The Tigers’ $19MM submission for Skubal already represented a raise of 87% over Skubal’s $10.15MM salary in 2025. On a percentage basis, that’s actually more than double the raise Price received; he’d earned $14MM in 2014 before a $5.75MM (41%) raise heading into 2015. Had Detroit offered Skubal a salary of $25MM, for instance, that would’ve represented a mammoth 146% raise over the prior year’s salary. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to say that perhaps they should have done so, but that hasn’t been the modus operandi of any team in arbitration at any point over the years.

Similarly, it hasn’t been the M.O. for any player or the union to try to leverage that until-now obscure CBA clause in an effort to entirely upend the arbitration system as we know it. Doing so represented a risk for Skubal and Boras; the two could surely have taken a more conservative approach, filing for a $21-22MM salary that looked to more incrementally advance the market for stars (pitchers, specifically) in arbitration. Instead, they gambled on Skubal’s historic pair of seasons and were rewarded with a historic ruling. Skubal’s $32MM victory will now be fair game to be cited as a potential comp for stars at any point moving forward.

Turning to the more immediate future, the arbiters’ ruling has major payroll implications for Detroit. The Tigers agreed to a three-year, $115MM contract with Framber Valdez just last night and will now pay Skubal $13MM more than they would have if the panel had ruled in their favor. In a matter of 24 hours, their payroll went from a plausible $164MM or to something in the range of $215MM, depending on how Valdez’s contract breaks down on an annual basis and how much deferred money the contract contains — all of which is yet unclear.

One would imagine that had the Tigers won yesterday’s hearing, there might have been some extra wiggle room in the payroll for further late additions to the roster. Perhaps that’s still the case, but the extra $13MM, coupled with the massive Valdez deal, thrusts Detroit into franchise-record payroll territory and could mean the heavy lifting is largely finished.

Fans from other clubs will surely hope that Skubal’s arbitration win opens the door for a potential trade. That’s overwhelmingly unlikely to be the case. Tigers brass has declined to wholly declare Skubal off limits at any point this winter but has done so more as a matter of principle than due to an actual willingness to move him. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has declined to speak in absolutes regarding Skubal but has also done so with regard to virtually all other roster matters when asked.

That “never say never” mentality has led to plenty of wishcasting from fans who’d love to see Skubal in their club’s jersey, just as it’s led to hopeful inquiries from rival teams throughout the league. To this point, there’s no indication that a Skubal trade was ever seriously considered; Harris & Co. have seemingly given other clubs the chance to present a comical offer that they simply can’t refuse, but no team has done so.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that the Tigers, after adding Valdez, had no intent to trade Skubal even if he won his case. The addition of Valdez gives Detroit an arguably overqualified “No. 2” starter to pair with Skubal atop a rotation that now makes them the unequivocal favorites in a perennially weak American League Central.

Valdez’s relatively short-term deal also ensures that Detroit will have a high-end starter in place for the 2027 season in the event that Skubal departs as a free agent. If the Tigers are able to re-sign him on the open market, they’ll return that pairing for at least the ’27 season, after which Valdez could opt out — thus dropping the Tigers back down to “only” one immense, top-of-the-market salary for a member of their rotation.

Skubal and his camp are surely celebrating today, as is the Players Association at large. His landmark win will have ramifications for future arb-eligible players for literal decades to come — assuming the system, as it currently exists, remains in place that long. The Tigers, even though they were handed a $13MM defeat, have cause to celebrate as well. Their rotation — which also includes Reese Olson and another pair of impending free agents, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize — should be among the most formidable in the sport.

As for the rest of the American League Central — and owners around the game who now can look forward to heightened arb salaries for players with five-plus years of service — things may not be so rosy.