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NL East Notes: Nationals, Phillies, Braves

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Compared to what they did last season, the Nationals may stand to gain the most from their returning players, writes August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs. We all pay attention to the big moves of the offseason – such as the Mets’ signing of Yoenis Cespedes. It’s easy to forget that player performance is not constant. Using projected WAR, Fagerstrom finds the Nationals could gain about seven wins just from 2015 returnees. In particular, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, and Jayson Werth are projected for rebound campaigns.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • The Phillies are on the hunt for late opportunities, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. GM Matt Klentak said, “every year, it turns out that somebody who we thought was going to sign early and they don’t, they hold out and there’s a deal to be done…if there’s an opportunity out there, we’re going to push forward.” Klentak is comfortable with the team’s current depth, so there’s no guarantee the club with sign or trade for any additional talent before the start of the season.
  • Phillies left-handed starter Matt Harrison is still experiencing an ongoing back injury, per Zolecki. Harrison is unlikely to be ready for the start of Spring Training and may not pitch anytime in the near future. The club acquired Harrison as part of the Cole Hamels trade as a means to balance salary. For now, he’s a lottery ticket for the Phillies if he can ever return to health. At some point, the club may decide they value the 40-man roster spot more (this is less of an issue in-season if he’s on the 60-day DL).
  • Freddie Freeman thinks the Braves will return to relevance soon, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Freeman is the last man standing from the 2013 roster, marking a surprisingly quick overhaul for John Hart and company. Freeman is excited about the team’s mix of veteran and young talent. The Braves new SunTrust Park is scheduled to open in 2017, and the Braves would surely like to field a contender.

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

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The departure of Justin Upton from the free agent market leaves the spotlight squarely on fellow star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. We recently heard of interest from as many as ten teams and the possibility of a fairly short signing timeline. And there’s been some chatter today as his market begins to take greater form.

Here’s the latest:

  • Marlins president David Samson tells reporters, including Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that his team has no interest in signing Cespedes (Twitter link). Samson cited the team’s already crowded outfield picture as a reason for not pursuing the slugger.

Earlier Updates

  • The Marlins “have discussed pursuing” the star Cuban on some kind of “short-term deal,” Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. But he says that it’s hard to see the club being in the lead for his services, and it’s also hard to disagree with that assessment. For such a move to come together, Rosenthal suggests, Miami would likely need to line up a deal involving center fielder Marcell Ozuna. (Presumably, Christian Yelich would slide to center.)
  • Rosenthal also tweets that the Nationals are indeed interested in Cespedes, too — but only if his asking price comes down. We heard mention earlier today (via BobNightengale of USA Today, on Twitter) that both the Nats and the Astros had some discussions on Upton and might also be involved on Cespedes. It’s a bit of a stretch to imagine the Nats adding Cespedes, at least without making another move, though Washington is perhaps better able to take on his salary obligations than are other organizations with rumored interest. From a roster perspective, the team could in theory demote or trade Michael Taylor, put Ben Revere in a timeshare with Jayson Werth, and utilize Bryce Harper and/or Cespedes in center when Revere isn’t in the lineup.
  • The Braves are yet another N.L. East club with continued amenability to a short-term pact with the star outfielder, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. As with the other teams, a trade — probably involving Nick Markakis or Ender Inciarte — could conceivably go along with a signing scenario. But O’Brien’s cautionary words seem worth heeding: “Don’t hold your breath.”
  • We touched upon where things stand with the incumbent Mets this morning, though we haven’t heard of any recent movement on the team’s stance. (No word from the Phillies, alas.) Of course, it’s certainly plausible to imagine teams from other divisions remaining involved or joining the hunt.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Justin Upton Deal

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Last night’s news that the Tigers had landed Justin Upton surprised some, who felt that his market may have dried up. But while pitching was first in the queue this winter, we’ve seen a steady stream of position player signings at or near expectations ever since we hit 2016.

With the agreement set to be announced tomorrow after a physical, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link), here are some reactions to and ramifications of the move:

  • Both the Nationals and Astros had expressed interest in Upton, and “may” look instead at top remaining free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Neither team looks in need of a player at that position, of course, but both are in position to be opportunistic. (Houston has been fairly quiet after a bold trade deadline, while Washington still appears to be about $30MM shy of its 2015 payroll after several moves.)
  • The Braves also had conversations with Upton, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but the club was only discussing a six-year deal at a “significantly lower average annual value” than Upton’s new contract provides. GM John Coppolella acknowledged the chats, adding that his club will “remain both opportunistic and disciplined.”
  • Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was “absolutely ready” to sign Chris Davis, tweets Jon Heyman, but GM Al Avila talked him out of taking that route. From where I stand, that seems wise; unless Detroit was convinced that Davis could play the corner outfield on a regular basis for at least another year or two, it’s hard to see how he’d fit.
  • Once the decision was made to focus on Upton, Avila and skipper Brad Ausmus went to Phoenix and negotiated with Upton over the weekend, Nightengale reports. Per the report, the White Sox, Rangers, and Astros were other key teams in the hunt for Upton.
  • A source with knowledge of the Astros’ side of things tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that the interest was never very “serious.” It does not appear that the ’Stros talked about much more than a three-year scenario. (While it isn’t clear what kind of ideas might have been batted around, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has written about the plausibility of an opt-out-driven, high-AAV, multi-year pillow contract concept.)
  • Ilitch’s latest big move proves that he’s the “most munificent owner in professional sports,” Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues. Certainly, he’s proven willing on plenty of occasions to plunk down the cash needed to arm his ballclub, this time cracking the luxury tax ceiling to add Upton. (They’ve done so previously on at least one occasion.)
  • From my perspective, it seems that Detroit got a nice price on a prime-aged free agent. The price comes in well below our expectations here at MLBTR, and even further below what Upton might have commanded with a bigger platform year. It may or may not be reasonable to hope that he has some growth remaining as a player, but even the current package makes for a solid investment given his age. As always, there’s risk. But as major win-now, open-market moves go, it’s hard to do much better.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ’pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
  • Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
  • Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.

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NL East Notes: Fernandez, Yelich, Vizcaino, DePodesta

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With Dee Gordon now extended through the 2020 season (and possibly 2021 by way of vesting option), MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro gets the sense that the Marlins hope to hammer out a long-term deal for Jose Fernandez, possibly in advance of tomorrow’s exchange of arbitration figures (Twitter link). That’s an ambitious goal for a number of reasons — lack of time, Fernandez’s stock being low after an injury-shortened season, Scott Boras’ aversion to long-term deals, etc. — and Frisaro himself notes that he hasn’t confirmed long-term contract talks are taking place. Jon Heyman, meanwhile, tweets that there’s “no word” that the Marlins are hopeful of coming to terms on an extension with their young ace. With Fernandez already eligible for arbitration, the urgency to sign a deal isn’t as pressing, as he’ll begin earning notable salaries as soon as 2016, when MLBTR has him projected at $2.2MM. Given his excellence when healthy, that number should rise rapidly, as he’ll be arb-eligible three more times before qualifying for free agency.

Here’s more on the Marlins and the NL East…

  • Miami’s agreement with left-hander Wei-Yin Chen should put to rest the trade rumors swirling around Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna, writes Frisaro in a full column. By adding Chen (and extending Gordon), the Marlins sent the message that their goal is to contend in 2016. Adding Chen lessens the temptation to add a young arm by trading Ozuna, which would’ve simply created another hole in the outfield anyhow, Frisaro notes.
  • Within that piece, Frisaro reports that the Nationals made a run at Christian Yelich this offseason, floating a concept involving left-hander Gio Gonzalez going to the Marlins. He’s the second reporter to say as much, as Jon Heyman first mentioned the scenario about a month ago While I’d imagine that other pieces were involved in the Washington’s scenario, Frisaro hears that the inquiry “didn’t go anywhere,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise. The Marlins took Yelich 23rd overall back in 2010 and rewarded him with a hefty $49.75MM contract extension with a little more than one year of service time under his belt last offseason; the team is quite high on Yelich’s potential.
  • The Braves could end up going to an arbitration hearing with right-hander Arodys Vizcaino tomorrow, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Atlanta cemented itself as a “file-and-trial” team (one that does not negotiate one-year salaries after arbitration figures are exchanged) last season when it went to a hearing with left-hander Mike Minor. With figures set to be exchanged tomorrow at 1pm ET, there’s little time for the two sides to work out a deal, although GM John Coppolella voiced a desire to work something out. “Our hope is always to settle before numbers are filed, but we showed last year that we have no problem going to a hearing if we are unable to reach a number that works for our club,” Coppolella explained. Vizcaino is projected by MLBTR to make $1.1MM next season, although as a Super Two player, establishing a more significant base in his first trip through the process would make the right-hander exponentially more costly in his next three arbitration-eligible offseasons.
  • In a piece for Vice Sports, Mike Vorkunov spoke to former Mets vice president of player development/amateur scouting about his decision to jump ship to the NFL’s Cleveland Browns and the journey that brought him to baseball in the first place. DePodesta recalls some influential lessons he learned while interning for George H.W. Bush’s deputy assistant, Jim Pinkerton — an experience that changed the way he approached his understanding not only of baseball but life in general. Vorkunov spoke to DePodesta’s former colleague, Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP working under Andrew Friedman in L.A.) as well as former Harvard football teammates/coaches and current/former Browns employees. DePodesta explained to Vorkunov that he’s tried to learn about as many other industries as possible (healthcare, finance, etc.). “I’ll say this: the last 20 years in baseball, much what I’ve done is try to learn as much as I can about other industries, especially ones that I thought shared common characteristics to what we were doing in baseball,” said DePodesta. “Because I was always trying to learn how they dealt with similar interests to what we had.” Vorkunov’s lengthy piece gives an excellent look into DePodesta and what he and his unique background will bring to the NFL. To read more about DePodesta’s career change from a football perspective, check out MLBTR’s sister site, Pro Football Rumors.

Outfield Market Notes: Cespedes, CarGo, Cards, Upton

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The prolonged availability of Yoenis Cespedes on the free agent market has apparently drawn some bargain hunters. Jon Heyman reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets and Braves both have had at least some level of interest in an communication with the All-Star outfielder. New York is said to be willing to put together a two or three-year deal, per Heyman, while it’s not clear what Atlanta might be inclined to offer. The White Sox have previously been said to have interest that stops at three years. As I noted in the linked post, a big AAV and an early opt-out could be an interesting scenario, though Cespedes is still likely to exhaust all possibilities of a deal more commensurate with his big-time earning power after an MVP-caliber season.

Here are some more notes on an outfield market that has shown increased movement in recent weeks:

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Braves would have to move an outfielder in order to sign Cespedes now that Hector Olivera is in the outfield. Moving Ender Inciarte, in theory, could make room for Cespedes as a stopgap of sorts in center field, he further tweets, though Atlanta would need to trade yet another outfielder once Mallex Smith is ready for a look in center (thereby shifting Cespedes to a corner spot).
  • Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that the Braves do indeed have some interest, though they’re only interested in a short-term pact as well. Bowman notes that even if Cespedes were to get to the point where he considered accepting a one- or two-year deal — an unlikely scenario — Atlanta would need to clear payroll in order to facilitate the acquisition. Asked by one of his Twitter followers about the odds of Atlanta striking a deal with Cespedes, Bowman likened them to the chances of winning the Powerball (Twitter link). While Bowman is clearly having some fun with that tweet, the fact that he is more or less dismissive of the entire notion is telling.
  • Rosenthal also reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets have received no indication from Cespedes’ agents that he’s willing to take a short-term deal. Cespedes remains committed to securing a longer-term deal — a concept to which the Mets have reportedly been averse all offseason long.
  • Several industry sources tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they still expect Cespedes to take down a big contract. He traces the hold-up at the top of the outfield market to the standoff between Chris Davis and the Orioles.
  • Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has drawn interest from the Orioles, Cardinals, White Sox, and Angels at times this winter, Heyman notes (Twitter links). (The team has also been contacted by the Nationals and Giants, both of which have since added outfielders.) We’ve heard recently, though, that Los Angeles probably can’t take on that kind of salary and has not spoken recently with Colorado. And Heyman says that the “sticking point” with the O’s has been that team’s unwillingness to part with young righty (and Colorado native) Kevin Gausman.
  • FOX Sports has a series of posts today regarding outfielders. Ken Rosenthal and Dave Cameron take opposing sides on the question whether the Cardinals ought to focus on adding an outfield upgrade. Rosenthal explains that the Phillies probably won’t make a value play for Justin Upton, in large part because their second-round pick is a valuable part of a talent-acquisition strategy. And Jon Morosi says that this year’s winter’s market for outfielders has gone in unexpected directions.

Astros Have Inquired With Braves On Ender Inciarte

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The Astros have spoken with the Braves about center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). It’s not clear what level of interest Houston has at this point.

Inciarte, 25, went to Atlanta as a key part of the sizable package sent by the D’Backs in exchange for Shelby Miller. He’s emerged as a sneakily valuable player over the last two seasons, delivering outstanding glovework with a solid bat at a bargain price. If he can keep churning out top-notch defensive metrics and repeat his strong .303/.338/.408 slash from last year, Inciarte would profile as a first-division regular.

Of course, Atlanta  surely won’t part with Inciarte for anything less than a compelling price. The organization would have ample cause to keep him as a piece of their rebuilding plan, though obviously the same could have been said of some now-former Braves players — Andrelton Simmons, in particular. High-upside players at or near the majors would presumably top the Braves’ wish list, though the Astros have already shipped out quite a few of those in other recent swaps.

It’s not immediately obvious what Houston could have in mind with Inciarte. The team already has a high-upside veteran in center in Carlos Gomez, though he fell short of expectations after being acquired last summer, along with a cheap and speedy backup in Jake Marisnick. And the club seems set in the corners with George Springer and Colby Rasmus — both of whom are also capable of playing center.

It is intriguing to consider the possibilities, though, if the interest is serious. Crasnick says that he’d expect Houston would need to deal away Gomez if it were to cut a deal for Inciarte. That’s certainly one plausible scenario, though they’d be selling low — and in a potentially weak market — after giving up a major haul to get him just months ago. While we’re on hypotheticals, it’s conceptually possible that the team could dangle Springer for an elite young pitcher. We’ve heard suggestions before that the organization isn’t completely unwilling to consider such a scenario, and teams such as the Indians and Rays could theoretically match up. But that’s all pure speculation at this point, of course.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/16

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.

  • The Royals have agreed to terms with lefty David Huff on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, MLBTR has learned. Huff will receive $1.1MM plus a possible $300K in performance bonuses if he’s in the Majors, and his deal contains opt-outs on May 15 and June 15. Huff appeared briefly with the Dodgers last season, but spent most of the year at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he posted a 2.20 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 over 57 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old has a 5.08 ERA, 5.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in parts of seven big-league seasons, which he’s split between starting and relieving.
  • The Padres have selected the contract of lefty Ryan Buchter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The Friars had previously signed Buchter to a minor league deal, but now, before he had even pitched an inning for them, they’ve placed him on their 40-man roster. Buchter had an excellent (if somewhat control-challenged) season at Triple-A in 2015, posting a 1.78 ERA, 11.0 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 50 2/3 innings of relief for two teams, and he has good velocity and is very tough on lefties. Getting him on a minor league deal looked like a small coup for the Padres, and it’s possible they’re adding him to their 40-man roster in order to avoid losing him, maybe to an opt-out clause or an offer from overseas.
  • The Pirates have released righty Casey Sadler, Matt Eddy of Baseball America tweets. Sadler underwent Tommy John surgery after the 2015 season and was subsequently outrighted. The 25-year-old made one strong start with the Bucs in 2015 and spent the rest of the year at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he posted a 4.56 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 before getting hurt.
  • The Brewers have announced that they’ve signed lefty Pat Misch to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. The 34-year-old Misch appeared in parts of six big-league seasons with the Giants and Mets, but he hasn’t been in the Majors since 2011. He’s had a strange journey since having Tommy John surgery in August 2013, as BA’s John Manuel writes — beginning last winter, he pitched in the Puerto Rican Winter League, then pitched 72 innings in a swingman role with Triple-A New Orleans in the Marlins system (posting a 3.25 ERA, 5.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9), then 64 2/3 with Lamigo in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. That stint finished with a Game 7 no-hitter to end the Taiwan Series.
  • The Yankees have signed infielders Donovan Solano and Jonathan Diaz to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, Eddy tweets. Solano, formerly the Marlins’ semi-regular second baseman, did not hit well in 2015 and bounced back and forth between Miami and New Orleans. He has a career .257/.307/.328 batting line in parts of four big-league seasons. The 30-year-old Diaz has played briefly with the Red Sox and Blue Jays; he spent most of 2015 with the Jays’ Triple-A Buffalo affiliate, where he played shortstop, second base and center field and batted .223/.328/.284.
  • The Braves have agreed to terms with righty Rob Wooten, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. The 30-year-old appeared in the Brewers bullpen in the 2013 through 2015 seasons, posting a combined 5.03 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 and throwing in the high 80s. He spent most of 2015, in a tough pitching environment at Triple-A Colorado Springs, with a 4.67 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 52 innings.
  • The Reds have signed infielder Carlos Triunfel to a minor league deal, tweets Eddy. The former top Mariners prospect, now 25, batted .264/.287/.398 in 329 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento in the Giants organization in 2015, splitting his time between shortstop, second and third. He has appeared briefly in the big leagues with the Mariners and Dodgers.

Orioles Claim Joey Terdoslavich

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The Orioles have claimed infielder/outfielder Joey Terdoslavich off waivers from the Braves, according to a team announcement. Terdoslavich lost his roster spot to make way for the signing of Kelly Johnson, which Atlanta announced today.

The 27-year-old Terdoslavich had previously spent his entire career in the Braves organization. He’s only taken 162 trips to the plate in the majors over the past three seasons.

While he’s yet to get much of a chance in the majors, Terdoslavich owns a reasonably useful .264/.337/.423 batting line in over 1,300 plate appearances at Triple-A. Of course, it’s been some time since he received a look at third base, and that slash isn’t all that impressive for a player who is limited to first base and corner outfield duties.

NL East Notes: Alderson, Mets, Murphy, Swisher

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson made his first appearance with the media in quite some time today, and it was certainly good to see him back in the swing of things after the revelation that he had been diagnosed with cancer. The club’s top baseball decisionmaker told reporters that he’s back to full speed. (Via the Associated Press, on ESPN.com.) “I’ve been working 100 percent since really just after the winter meetings,” Alderson said. “I just couldn’t travel to Nashville that particular Sunday and Monday. Otherwise I would have been there. But since that time I’ve been in the office and fully participating.”

Here’s more from that appearance and some other notes from around the National League East:

  • Alderson added that the Mets are not shying away from spending, despite that perception in some quarters. As he put it, in rather interesting fashion: “The idea that we’re not investing in the team I think is really misplaced and sort of tied up in the populism involving [Yoenis] Cespedes.” Alderson went on to explain that the club’s payroll in 2016 could end up rising by as much as $35MM over its 2014 figure of about $93MM. (The club sat at about $110MM last year.)
  • Generally, said Alderson, the Mets acknowledge the importance of Cespedes and outgoing infielder Daniel Murphy to last year’s run, but he explained there was more to it than simply keeping the band together. “I think along the way we learned a few things about ourselves and about the team, and I think the way we’ve approached the offseason puts some of those lessons into play,” Alderson explained. “It’s not as if we’re not looking to improve the team, and, if possible, in significant ways. But it has to make some sense in terms of how these pieces all fit.”
  • Signing Murphy wasn’t the Nationals’ first choice, writes Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post, but the team believes that he makes for a good fit and addresses an important need. Boswell paints a fascinating picture of Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo’s negotiations with Murphy — conducted while laid up after back surgery — and notes that the organization feels it has largely done what it needed to this winter. While further moves could take place, it seems increasingly likely that a big trade involving the back end of the bullpen may not be forthcoming. And other roster spots — such as a fourth outfielder — could be filled with relatively minor moves, unless high-value opportunities arise. As for Murphy, Rizzo explained the signing thusly: “We were looking for the best left-handed value we could get, and this guy really plays the game the way I like: gritty, hard-nosed, but with a smart baseball mind. He can steal you a base. Situational hits. And the brighter the lights, the more he steps up.”
  • Bringing back left-handed-hitting utilityman Kelly Johnson could spell the end of Nick Swisher’s brief tenure with the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. The most likely scenario, he suggests, is for Atlanta to showcase Swisher during Spring Training in hopes that he’ll do enough to draw interest from another team. If not other club is willing to pick up some of Swisher’s $15MM in remaining obligations, says Bowman, he could end up just being released.
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