Teams that have spoken to Craig Kimbrel’s camp early in the offseason have been told that the right-hander “is looking for a six-year deal,” tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. It’s likely that there’s some degree of tactical negotiating at play here; free agents will always set out seeking a sum larger than the one they perhaps hope to find, and a six-year pact for Kimbrel would be precedent-setting.
At 30 years of age, Kimbrel is already older than both Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman were when they signed their five-year contracts worth $80MM and $86MM, respectively. Those are the two largest deals for any reliever in MLB history, and Kimbrel is presumably aiming to topple both. His ability to do so, of course, is far from a certainty. Though he comes with as much name value as any reliever in the game, Kimbrel had already displayed some red flags in 2018 even before struggling in the postseason.
Through 62 1/3 regular-season innings in 2018, Kimbrel posted a 2.74 ERA which, while strong, was the second-highest of his career. Few clubs place much of an emphasis on that figure in today’s game, but Kimbrel also saw his walk rate spike to 12.6 percent, the second-highest full-season mark of his career. Beyond that, Kimbrel also averaged a home run per nine innings pitched for the first time and turned in a career-worst 3.13 FIP.
Unfortunately for Kimbrel, his most pronounced struggles came under the national spotlight of the 2018 postseason. He surrendered runs in five of his nine playoff outings, issuing eight walks and hitting another two batters in just 10 2/3 innings of total work. It’s worth noting that he’d allowed all of two earned runs in 10 postseason innings coming into the 2018 season, but his late struggles didn’t leave a favorable final impression.
All of this, to some extent, is a matter of splitting hairs. The 2018 version of Kimbrel wasn’t the superhuman entity that Red Sox fans enjoyed in 2017, but Kimbrel was still one of the game’s top relievers. His 97.1 mph average fastball velocity is a dead match for his career mark in that regard, and his 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate was actually an improvement over his 16.5 percent career mark. He ranked sixth among 151 qualified relievers in overall strikeout percentage, fifth in swinging-strike rate and 12th in K%-BB%. A control issue was his primary downfall in 2018, evidenced not only by the increased walk rate but by the decreased first-pitch strike rate and overall percentage of pitches he threw in the strike zone.
As for the postseason difficulties, those are hardly a death knell for Kimbrel’s free-agent stock. Yu Darvish, for instance, landed a $126MM guarantee last winter on the heels of some of his own World Series struggles, and the opposite effect (or lack thereof) can hold equally true; speculation that Daniel Murphy had emphatically bolstered his free-agent stock with his 2015 postseason heroics never manifested into reality. He signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals that was generally in line with pre-October expectations.
As for the six-year ask, that could well be a ploy to get down to a more realistic target of five years or even four at a record-setting average annual value — Wade Davis’ $17.33MM mark currently holds that distinction — which is generally where most projections have pegged Kimbrel this winter. We at MLBTR predicted a four-year, $70MM deal for Kimbrel, which would fall shy of the overall record guarantee for a reliever but would set a new high-water mark in terms of AAV at $17.5MM. Kimbrel already rejected a qualifying offer that would’ve paid him $17.9MM in 2019. As such, any team that signs him will face draft pick and/or international pool forfeitures (the specifics of which can be seen here).
Keep dreaming.
Potentially the BJ Ryan contract.
LOL please never bring that up again. the BJ contract was brutal.
Haven’t heard that name in a long time
Come on, it’s nothing like that. Ryan had one spectacular season before signing that contract and the majority of baseball people knew it was insane. Kimbrel has been one of the best closers in the game for eight years now. Nothing suggests he’s anything close to the same type of risk Ryan was.
I choked on my coffee when I read that. Very, very few closers have an effective shelf life of 6 years total. It’s insane for any closer at any stage of their career to be offered more than 4 years.
It’s just a starting point as the article mentions. Negotiations are all about initially asking for more than you’ll accept as the offer in response might end up being better than expected. In my profession (personal injury), it’s not uncommon for the original demand to be $8m and the eventual settlement is $2,2m. In this case his agent probably first put 6 years out to eventually end up with 3 – 5 but at a higher average. My guess is in the end, $20m x 3 where he ends up setting a per year record.
6 years?!!! Lol, that’s crazy, but why not? I’d shoot for the moon too!! I imagine he wants full no-trade in that contract too! Lol, probably someone willing to do it too!
Too many too’s
22 twos
Oh cmon Josh, are we in grammar school or on a baseball site. Not you toooooooo!! Lol
Haha. Good luck, Chuck.
Kimbrel should sign a four year deal with the Cardinals.
I don’t think he is looking to be apart of a rebuild.
Lololol. This guy.
Pass.
Cardinals are not in a rebuild… please explain.
LOL, you think your playoff bound this season? Your number 4 and 5 pitchers are????
Your best releif pitchers are????
Your 4,5,6 hitters are????
Haven’t had a good free agent signing in how many years???
need I say more?
Everyone knows the Cardinals are going to be very bad for a very long time. Their fans are just scared to face reality, that’s all.
Don’t get too ahead of yourself boo, only won 2 more games than the Cardinals last year.
@juicemane 4 and 5 would be Wacha, Gant or addressed by FA, which isn’t a priority. Are reliefs corps might need a little help maybe get Miller? It would look like Reyes,Hudson, Miller, Hesley and Hicks as the Closer definitely would be a good relief group. I’m not sure what you mean by 5 and 6 hitters but a guy like Goldschmidt could help out the offense that is already above average. Need I say more?
so you’re counting on a whole bunch of trades of MVP caliber players and probably over 100 million in contracts handed out to 30+ year old free agents?
and “good relief group” cannot have 4 second year players with extremely low MLB innings pitched. Sorry it doesn’t work that way, none of them are proven,
and when is all these blockbuster “pie in the sky” moves supposed to happen?
you do need to say more actually…..
Never said the last name Harper or Machado bud
You should always bank on getting all the F.A to be to talk about the potential of your team…said no one ever. Agree with the juice.
Umm duh, those guys are gonna get 350 mil+, so yea neither was I. If you sign any moderate relief pitcher its gonna be at least 3 years probably 12-13 mil a year, and your team needs at least 2. Ask Luke Gregerson and Brett Cecil.
I only said 1 trade and none would cost 100m
Ok then the Cards are in a rebuild. Agreed.
I’m sorry but the Cardinals are not an org that rebuilds and it makes no sense after an 88 win season. No evidence of a rebuild this offseason whatsoever.
The difference is that while the braves only won 2 more games, they did so with a team who is restricted financially and wasn’t supposed to compete until maybe 2019 but probably 2020. The Cardinals are declining and need to start their rebuild while they have something of value to trade.
They did so being in the same division as the Marlins actually
Agreed
– Cubs Fan
I had an older gentleman tell me one time, “I’d rather aim for the moon and miss than aim for the gutter and hit it”
That’s what Moustakas said last season too! Ended up making barely more than Neil Walker
I don’t think aiming that low from day one would have made him feel any better about it
Moon is one thing, Jupiter another.
Was the older gentleman named Mr. Magoo?
What a relief, I thought I initially read that headline as “seeking six-year contract”
Glad I read it a 2nd time. Whew..
‘Insert thinking emoji’
Can’t blame him. He will probably have to decide on taking a 5 year deal or a 6 with a lower AAV. There are definitely enough teams with the need for him.
No one is giving him 6
Never underestimate the ability of some baseball teams to talk themselves into doing really stupid things. It just takes one owner willing to pay for name recognition
Not sure he even gets five.
Ask for the moon, get an asteroid. Not a new form of negotiating. His market probably tops out at 4 years with a possible vesting option 5th year.
He might end up in Uranus.
Buyer beware on Kimbrel. He was a massive piece for the Sox, but he became a high-wire act in 2018. At least he got his ring and we wish him luck in his new venue. We’ll take the compensation pick instead. This was another great trade for Dombrowski.
I hope he makes as much money as he can, just not with the Red Sox
Don’t worry about that. He’s the new Papelbon. They will let him walk and take the draft pick instead. I think we’ve already seen the best of Kimbrel anyway. He was terrifying at the end of last season.
The draft pick for Papelbon worth helluva lot more than the draft pick for Kimbrel
Exactly. The Redsox will only receive a supplemental 4th round pick because they were over the luxury tax.
Mookie Betts was a 5th round pick. You never know…
And a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. The whole 4th and 5th round in that draft have combined for about 9 war compared to Betts 35 war. Its a lottery ticket
Ask for the moon, settle for some space dust…. someone will regret a 6-yr contract. So much regression this past year. You’ll pay mighty for his past but get his downside. And I’m a huge Sox fan.
Perhaps Kimbrel is looking to sign the first ever “Buy four years, get two free” contract in history. Otherwise, it ain’t happening.
“It’s likely that there’s some degree of tactical negotiating at play here”
ya think?
Kimbrel has been great and much respect. Braves please stay away.
Only takes one team, folks.
I really hope he re-signs with Boston. I always felt there was a good chance the Yankees would rally whenever he was brought in, and they often did.
I’m disappointed in you. Yankees fans are supposed to be better informed than that. Kimbrel blew one save or lead all year to the Yankees and that was back in early May.
6-years for a closer? Is he nuts?! Clearly that’s his agent talking and not him lol.
Someone will give him at least 5 and Chapman money. Relievers are the game now and I’m sure they can talk around 1 blip of a season.
Kimbrel’s contract will be an albatross the minute he signs it. He was BAD last postseason, and he’s not the lights out closer in the regular season anymore. His command was dog ****, and once he loses velocity in that fastball, he’ll be post 2007 Eric Gagne.
Really…the king of walks
Hit the road Craig!
He’ll get 6/90-100 million. It’s crazy to think the Cardinals signed Pujols for 6/106 million not long ago.
I think Kimbrel is great arguably the best closer over the last 7 or 8 years but the contract he is looking for is too much really hope Boston takes a pass they can piece it together maybe add one of the closer options at a better price and see what happens. They can always go fishing at the deadline if they are in a position to win again. Please pass on Kimbrel.
Six years?
LMAO!
It amazes me how teams are willing to give these guys the long-term deals knowing full well they are extremely likely to be saddled with a bad contract at some point and then looking to dump for salary relief in the future.
It’s really not that amazing… They’re hoping the player outperforms his contract the first few years, and then they plan on either eating the cost or trying to salvage whatever value they can get on the backend. For guys that are in high demand, it’s either that or pay a huge AAV for less years (Greinke). That’s just the way it works.
That and you can’t get comparable talent at any more reasonable rates without trading good prospects for it
The choice is almost always swallow the risk and sign, or settle for lesser talent and save a few bucks
Is he out of his freakin’ mind?
Ha ha. I’ll have what he’s having.
A $90-100 million contract over the next 5-6 years? I’ll take one of those too.
NFW!
Hey Craig – See Greg Holland.
“and his 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate was actually an improvement over his 16.5 percent career mark”
… which is probably an indication of the league whiff rate of 2018 rather than an actual improvement in performance.
MLB average was 11.5% in 2018 after being 11.6% in 2017. The swinging strike rate went down last season.
17.2% was 5th in baseball last season. Behind Hader, Diaz, Hader, and Pressly.
No reliever has ever put up 17.2% for their career. It’s exceptionally good. Kimbrel’s 16.6% for his career is the 2nd best ever.
Learn the facts before you post.
Thanks for the memories Craig, now hurry on down to Atlanta and sign that six-year deal
I’d give him 8 years if he lost that stupid delivery.
Lol
Maybe Kimbrel is eyeballing a stand-up comedy job??
Buyer beware at 6 years
I’m wary of 4 years with him. He’s the kind of guy who is out of the league quickly when he declines. He’s not going to be effective with lesser velocity.
Good luck with that.
I was prepared to mock this ask horribly in the comments, but I decided to re-evaluate Kimbrel’s stats just to be on firm ground.
I don’t see Kimbrel getting 6 years unless there are team options involved, but I think he may get 6 if that’s the case. The fact Kimbrel has been so consistently dominant and so reliable makes me compare him to peak Joe Nathan. Nathan’s velocity and effectiveness didn’t really start dropping until he was nearly 40. Since Kimbrel was still throwing his average fastball at over 97mph, he’s still at arguably peak velocity.
Kimbrel is showing no signs of slowing down and his duration of elite play invite comparisons to the best closers in modern MLB history, and those closers usually pitch effectively to near 40 or longer. I think it will be a strong argument for a record contract.
Front loaded 6 year deal with an opt-out after 3.
He had a down 2018 (by his standards) and did his best Fernando Rodney impression (got job done, but wasn’t pretty in playoffs. There’s a reason Sale closed clinching games in the playoffs Lool)
Kimbrel is also entering his age 31 season
Kimbrel should shoot becoming the game’s first $100M reliever.
Better chance than six year contract haha
Craig Kimbrel must have got really drunk over Thanksgiving
I, too, am looking for a 6 year contract.
Nope, he’ll end up w 4/60 at most and that team will regret it in two years.
Thanks for the saves CK!!
6 years???? He said 6! As in six years!
Any team that gives him five or six years is off their meds.
Every team has done 1 or more stupid signing…he’s hoping he could find that…National just almost sign Harper for 300 mil….and the dude said no….so…this is not surprising.
Why not just ask for 10 years and $100 billion? Too bad he wants to drag this out. He could probably get four years.
Lol, your tag says Barves
So does the logo
Yuck
Even as a starting point in discussions, no thanks. Thanks for the help, Craig. Best of luck and health – BoSox fan.
Kimbrell is terrific, but this is one of those times when I am SOOOOOOOO glad the Indians aren’t players in free agency. A massive percentage of long term contracts come back to bite the team. This one – and how much you want to be that some fool team gives it to him – screams boat anchor starting in year four.
3 years and $33 million. Then after that catch on to a team that needs a middle relief pitcher to get an out or two.
Kimbrel is arguably the best reliever ever. The stats back that up.
Better ERA and FIP and K/9 and more saves per season and better WAR per season than Mariano Rivera, a certain HOF and the guy that I personally think is the best ever.
He is asking for 6 years and will get at least 5 at $18+ million per season.
While I certainly don’t expect Kimbrel to get a six year deal it wouldn’t totally surprise me. He has long since proven that he isn’t the run of the mill relief pitcher. He has consistently been a top 5 relief pitcher year in and year out since his debut in the majors. Statistically he is by far the best reliever over that time period and it isn’t really close. He has also never experienced a major injury.
I think part of this narrative was Kimbrel’s struggles in this post season (but career post season stats still are good). His numbers also did decline somewhat in the regular season. HOWEVER even with the decline he was dominant. In fact if just about any other reliever had those same numbers we’d be discussing how well they performed. The truth is Kimbrel has over his career set the expectations so incredibly high that we forget how good he still was.
I DON’T expect him to get a 6 year deal. But I still expect him to be a top 5 relief pitcher in 6 years. He isn’t the normal relief pitcher.
He can probably get 5 years 90m with 6 year club option, or 4 years, 20m per, and 2 years w options.
he’s one of the greatest relievers of all time. he has one bad postseason, and everyone says he’s over the hill.
Always like mr. Kimball, and ebb and that Mary Hart girl she can Dance in the post season