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The Mariners are coming off a season in which they posted their highest win total (89) since 2003. And yet Seattle still didn’t come close to earning a playoff berth in the American League, which featured five teams with at least 97 victories, and has now gone 17 straight years without making the postseason. No North American professional sports franchise owns a longer playoff drought than the Mariners, who want to “re-imagine” their roster this winter, according to general manager Jerry Dipoto. The trade-minded executive got right to work Wednesday, just over a week after the offseason began, making a headline-grabbing deal with the Rays.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Robinson Cano, 2B: $120MM through 2023
- Jean Segura, SS: $57MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 club option)
- Kyle Seager, 3B: $56MM through 2021
- Mike Leake, SP: $27MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)
- Dee Gordon, 2B/OF: $27.5MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
- Felix Hernandez, SP: $27MM through 2019
- Juan Nicasio, RP: $9MM through 2019
- Wade LeBlanc, SP: $3.35MM through 2019 (includes buyouts of 2020-22 club options)
Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- James Paxton – $9.0MM
- Alex Colome – $7.3MM
- Roenis Elias – $1.0MM
Contract Options
- Denard Span, OF: Declined $12MM mutual option in favor of $4MM buyout
Free Agents
- Span, Nelson Cruz, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Erasmo Ramirez, Nick Vincent, Justin Grimm, Ryan Cook, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Romine, Gordon Beckham
[Mariners Depth Chart | Mariners Payroll Information]
The Mariners put up a quality record in 2018, but they did so while allowing 34 more runs than they scored – a sign the team may not have been as close to contention as it appeared. The six AL teams that finished ahead of Seattle – including Houston and Oakland, both of which are in the Mariners’ division – posted run differentials ranging from plus-70 to plus-263, perhaps leading Dipoto to say this week that the clubs ahead of his “are not ahead of us by a little.” As a result, the Mariners entered the offseason weighing some significant roster changes. However, indications are that the M’s will neither fully rebuild nor go all in toward breaking their playoff drought, which would require a noteworthy increase over their franchise-record Opening Day payroll from last season ($157.9MM-plus).
Factoring in projected arbitration salaries, Seattle already has upward of $151.5MM going toward next year’s roster, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. The team may be primed to shave some of that cash prior to next season, as it did when it declined outfielder Denard Span’s option for 2019 and made its deal with the Rays. The swap included five players but featured three experienced major leaguers, with catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia going to Tampa Bay and center fielder Mallex Smith heading to Seattle.
In landing Smith, the Mariners took care of one need but created another, leaving catcher as a position they must address. Compared to the typical offensive player, Zunino registered a less-than-stellar offensive season in 2018, but his wRC+ (84) was exactly average for his position, and he continued to provide plus defense. With that in mind, it’ll be tough for the M’s to find a similarly priced, similarly effective replacement for Zunino in free agency or via trade.
Considering how weak their farm system is, the Mariners won’t be able to swing a deal for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, who’s easily the premier trade candidate at the position. But Greg Johns of MLB.com noted Friday that Dipoto could look to acquire a more attainable major league backstop such as Jorge Alfaro, Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, Kevin Plawecki, James McCann or Blake Swihart. With the exception of McCann, who’s only arbitration eligible for two more years, all of those players are controllable for the foreseeable future. Any of those non-McCann catchers could be better fits for the Mariners than Realmuto when taking the team’s timeline into account, though needless to say, Realmuto’s vastly superior to each of them.
Looking at the free-agent market, Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos are miles better than their competition, and both should command expensive deals of at least three years. If the Mariners are going to make a splash in free agency, it might be for one of them (though, because Grandal’s a qualifying offer recipient, signing him would also cost a draft pick). Otherwise, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos, Martin Maldonado, Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco, Matt Wieters and Brian McCann represent free-agent starting options who are candidates to sign as stopgap starters.
The Zunino-less Mariners clearly have a gaping hole behind the plate, but they did save money and gain at least one potential long-term piece when they said goodbye to him. Zunino’s projected to earn $4.3MM via arbitration in 2019, his second-last year of control, while Smith still has another pre-arb season left and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2022. For Seattle, the hope is that the breakout the fleet-of-foot Smith experienced in 2018 will carry over. If so, he and star right fielder Mitch Haniger will make for an enviable tandem for the foreseeable future. Left field looks less settled as of now, but the lefty-swinging Ben Gamel did notch adequate production in an 843-plate appearance run from 2017-18. Considering Gamel’s output thus far, Seattle may roll with him as a cheap starter next year, though it could at least a seek a right-handed hitter to platoon with him now that Heredia’s gone.
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Back to Smith, who combined above-average production at the plate (.773 OPS) and on the bases (40 steals, 6.6 BsR) with scratch defense (two DRS, minus-0.5 UZR, zero OAA) en route to a 3.5-win campaign in 2018. Conversely, Seattle’s center fielders offered bottom-of-the-barrel production, as they logged a sub-.650 OPS and the majors’ fifth-worst fWAR (minus-0.2). The main culprits were Heredia and Dee Gordon.
A career-long middle infielder until the Mariners got him from the Marlins last winter, the 30-year-old Gordon was miscast in center, and the speedster also limped through one of his worst seasons at the plate. Should the 30-year-old return to Seattle next season, it seems likely he’ll go back to primarily occupying second base, where he was quite valuable as recently as 2017. It’s unclear if Gordon will stick around, though, as the Mariners have another high-profile second baseman in the big-hitting Robinson Cano, who’s owed $24MM per annum through 2023, has a full no-trade clause and is coming off a PED suspension-shortened season.
With Smith and Cano prominently in the mix, the Mariners could deem Gordon redundant and attempt to move him. The trouble is that there are plenty of veteran second basemen available in free agency who should ink more palatable contracts than Gordon’s, meaning the M’s may have difficulty finding a taker for him at his current rate of pay. If that ends up being the case, the Mariners could ultimately retain Gordon and hope for a bounce-back season at second. In that scenario, there would still be room for Cano, who’d factor in at DH and every infield position but shortstop.
Assuming expensive third baseman Kyle Seager hangs around after a career-worst season, Cano wouldn’t get many reps at third in 2019, though first and DH look wide open at the moment. While the Mariners do have a trio of 20-something first base options on their 40-man roster in Ryon Healy, Daniel Vogelbach and Joey Curletta, both Healy and Vogelbach have fallen flat in the majors, and Curletta hasn’t advanced past the Double-A level. At DH, the Mariners could lose free agent Nelson Cruz, who was one of their offensive centerpieces from 2015-18. Cruz was tremendous during that span, and Dipoto has heaped praise on him on multiple occasions in recent weeks, but the slugger’s age (39 next July) and inability to line up in the field work against the chances of a reunion between the sides.
Shortly after the season ended, Dipoto suggested Seattle may move on from having a DH-only player, and then he revealed while confirming the Smith/Zunino trade the club has a “desire to build a younger, more athletic and exciting roster.” Cruz offers oodles of excitement as a hitter, but he doesn’t exactly check the youth and athleticism boxes – not to mention that re-signing him could mean ponying up around $15MM per year. Of course, Cruz’s departure would be an enormous blow to a Seattle offense which, despite his efforts, finished just 21st in runs last season. Thus, if Seattle plans on staying competitive in the near term, it could look for a hitter who could ease the pain of Cruz’s exit to a degree.
Some potential trade targets who likely wouldn’t come at prohibitive costs (either in terms of the return they’d merit or their salaries) and could divide time between the field and DH include Jose Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, C.J. Cron, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich, Nicholas Castellanos, and ex-Mariners Justin Smoak and Eric Thames. Admittedly, however, the majority of those fits are imperfect. Martinez is a horrid defender at first and in the outfield; Renfroe owns a .296 on-base percentage in 956 major league plate appearances; and, Reyes aside, the other names are only under control for one or two more years apiece. Dipoto may not be in position to rob from an already barren farm system to trade for a stopgap, especially when there are some capable first base/DH types in free agency who should only be able to find short-term, low-cost contracts. It’s also possible the Mariners will simply give the young and inexpensive Healy and Vogelbach duo another chance to emerge as useful hitters, particularly if they’re not expecting to contend in 2019.
It’s debatable whether Healy and Vogelbach should have key roles next year, but that’s not the case with Haniger, who may be the Mariners’ franchise player at this point. Considering his excellent on-field performance and four remaining years of control – including another pre-arb season – no Mariner would bring back more in a trade than the 27-year-old Haniger. However, Dipoto has expressed a desire to “build around” the likes of Haniger, left-handed starter Marco Gonzales (five years of control) and closer Edwin Diaz (four years), indicating that trio is unlikely to go anywhere. On the other hand, the Mariners’ No. 1 starter, southpaw James Paxton, is seemingly on the outs as he enters his penultimate winter of arbitration eligibility.
Among realistic trade chips, Paxton looks like the Mariners’ most enticing player, and multiple sources have told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that they will indeed part with him this offseason. Obviously, though, it would be tricky for the M’s to both trade Paxton and hang around the playoff race next year. After all, even if the Mariners keep Paxton, their rotation would be in need of upgrades. The unit finished 2018 subpar in ERA (21st) and middle of the pack in fWAR (13th), and as of now, only Paxton, Gonzales and Mike Leake look like good bets to offer average or better production next season. Of their other major league options, the once-great Felix Hernandez’s career has gone in the tank; Wade LeBlanc was good as a starter in 2018, but judging by his career, he’s hardly a lock to replicate that performance; and Roenis Elias has typically been a back-end starter, though he did excel as a reliever last season. Moreover, unlike the division-rival Astros (Forrest Whitley) and A’s (Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk), the Mariners don’t have any big-time starting prospects knocking on the door of the bigs. That could change if they acquire one in a Paxton package.
Paxton aside, surely the M’s would entertain removing Leake or Hernandez from their staff via trade. However, a deal may be hard to come by in the case of Leake – who, despite being a respectable innings eater, is costly and has a full no-trade clause – and jettisoning Hernandez would be close to impossible. At the very least, Hernandez will remain a Mariner in 2019. The same likely applies to shortstop Jean Segura, though he’d be among the Mariners’ most valuable trade pieces if they were to shop him. There are “growing” concerns in Seattle about Segura’s attitude, according to Divish, so perhaps the team will seriously consider moving him. Segura did get into a clubhouse altercation with Gordon last season, but on the field, he managed to post 3.0 or more fWAR for the third straight season. He’s also relatively young (29 in March) and affordable (four years, $58MM). Aside from Manny Machado, who will be out of most teams’ price ranges, free agency doesn’t have a better shortstop than Segura. Adding all of that up, it’s likely he’ll draw plenty of interest this offseason. However, bidding adieu to Segura would send Dipoto scrambling for a satisfactory replacement, which wouldn’t be easy to find.
Moving to Seattle’s bullpen, right-handers Alex Colome and Juan Nicasio jump out as pricey arms who aren’t under control for much longer and could find themselves on the block. The 29-year-old Colome, whom the Mariners acquired from the Rays last May, is coming off his third season as a full-time reliever. He was successful in each of those seasons, as his combined 2.78 ERA and 96 saves help illustrate. With two arb-eligible years left, Colome would have value on the market. Nicasio wouldn’t be as appealing, on the other hand, as he’s owed $9MM in 2019 (his final year of control) and coming off an injury-shortened season in which he managed a 6.00 ERA in 42 innings. However, ERA estimators were bullish on Nicasio, in part because he recorded exemplary strikeout and walk numbers (11.36 K/9, 1.07 BB/9).
While the bullpen is one of many areas that could see significant changes for the Mariners prior to the 2019 campaign, it’s difficult to envision the team accomplishing enough this offseason to break its playoff drought next year. However, from a big-picture standpoint, Dipoto could still put the Mariners in a better place if he finds legitimate long-term pieces this winter and improves a farm system which was toward the bottom of the majors when he took over in September 2015 and remains among the league’s dregs today.
Coming Soon: James Paxton blockbuster near you 🙂
Paxton to Yankees for Scheffield, Frazier, Abreu, and Breaux. Who says no?
Yankees because that is an insane cost for 2 years of a player who get hurt all the time
Hey Hanny.
Sorry we don’t do trades with teams dump enough to load Cano and Jay-Z with so much cash. Have fun the next 5 years as your teams $120 million flies out the window.
The WIN opportunity passed. Cano is in decline and soon will be hard to watch
Robinson Cano has posted 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, in the first five years of his 10-year, $240 million contract. This year Cano posted 2.9 fWAR in only 80 games (while posting fine defensive metrics at second base). Steamer projects Cano with 2019 WAR 3.0 in 149 games, which would mean that Cano will again produce at a level to justify his $24 million annual salary.
The five years and $120 million remaining on Cano’s contract may not be attractive, but he’s not Jacoby Ellsbury, who has produced only 4.4 fWAR, valued at $34.9 million, over the last four years of his seven-year, $153 million contract.
So beautifully written!
It’s funny, I don’t condone the Cano contract (dollars or years) as a Mariners fan. But when some Yankee homer tries to talk down to Seattle fans regarding it without even mentioning the Ellsbury contract/conundrum from the very same offseason then you just know they’re just talking nonsense out of their self-inflated senses of a player’s production and value.
I can’t (and won’t) deny the enviable position that the Yankees are in as a team and system, but comparing the signings of Cano and Ellsbury in any way that says the Yankees came out on top so far is unintentionally hilarious.
Even with the regression this year, was Nelson Cruz for the Mariners one of the most productive free agent signings ever? Essentially all 4 years he put up plus numbers
Also waiting for the day Jerry trades himself
Cincinnati packages outfielder Scott Schebler, catcher Tyler Stephenson, pitcher Robert Stephenson, pitcher Sal Romano and pitcher Brandon Finnegan to Seattle for pitchers James Paxton and Alex Colome. who says no
Mariners. That’s way too much quantity and not enough quality. Paxton and Colome for Mahle, Peraza, and Castillo seems better.
Why would they trade Castillo? A lot of upside still there which he flashed in ‘17.
Its not like they are selling low, though. Paxton is great when healthy and if they sign a guy like Eovaldi they can be WC contenders just like that.
Not a chance in hell Cincinnati would agree to that. Castillo is lock as a #1 starter for next several years and Peraza will play short and leadoff once Billy Hamilton leaves
You don’t acquire stars for spare parts. If you don’t think your team is ready to give away prospects, then don’t bring up hypothetical trades that make it seem like you are, because there’s no realistic way of getting an ace pitcher without giving up guys like Castillo, who by the way was terrible last year.
Castillo is a lock to be a #1? Please don’t make all Reds fans look as bad as you.
Senzel and Greene, with Colome going along with Paxton.
The Reds aren’t going to trade away pitching they need right now. But it’s hard to see a deal between those two clubs getting done.
While this is more realistic as far as trade suggestions go on this site I think you are short. I doubt the Mariners trade Paxton and Colome for just one prospect each. Paxton is worth two top prospects and Colome is worth at least one so your suggestion is light. Either add another top prospect or two b level guys and you are on the correct path. The real question is are the Mariners looking for young not ready for prime time players or are they looking for guys they can slot in for 2019. That question remains.
Oh, I wouldn’t expect the deal to end there. Those would be the headliners. Seattle would probably get a couple of other lottery tickets back and send some cash to help cover Colome’s salary.
That said, I don’t see anything happening with Cincinnati. Williams has been difficult to work with.
Green and senzel for Paxton and colome is idiotic. What did you give up for colome? A prospect anywhere near their level? No you certainly didn’t and that’s for a reason. He’s a nice reliever but you aren’t getting two top prospects in baseball for him and a huge injury question mark. Paxton is a fine pitcher but you’re talking about a guy who’s never tossed more than 160 innings. If you managed to fetch senzel + lesser prospects and I mean lesser for the pair of them you’d be delighted.
First, learn the value of a front-line starting pitcher with two years of control.
Second,if you knew anything about the deal with Tampa, you would know that Seattle taking on the majority of Span’s contact was a hige part of it and the primary reason seattle didn’t have to give up major chips.
Third, I was clear that those names were the centerpieces. Other pieces would likely be involved.
Personally, I don’t see it happening, regardless. But that’s what it would probably take for Cincinnati.
Did Gerrit Cole fetch a top 5 prospect in baseball? How about archer? Senzel is an elite prospect. Hunter Greene and other top prospects sure they could go for Colome and Paxton but you aren’t getting senzel+ hunter Greene+ more
The commissioner’s office says no and investigates collusion if both parties agree to that. Seriously, you can just forget about giving up spare parts to get a guy like Paxton
Ugh… if feel they’re gonna half ass it again and not make the playoffs and not get a great draft pick. Yet again…
Cano high salary for 5 more years is problematic but wonder if there’s a deal for Stanton if NY has soured on him. Add Nicasico and Gordon to even out
If anything the Yanks have soured on Cano. I really don’t think Cashman has any regrets on Stanton. If 38 hrs with a decent bat/obp is his down season then I’ll take that,
Got any more crap you’d like the Yankees to take on? Hernandez? Seager? Horrible proposal.
Not sure how many would think of this but what it Mariners trade for Russel Martin? Jays would eat salary of course but Seattle will have a veteran catcher with little to no cost of prospects. A catcher who can help the pitching staff along with leading a younger catcher into a more prominent role in the future? Just a suggestion not saying this is the best idea ever just want to hear others opinions
Seattle won’t give up prospects for a player they can’t use in the future. But maybe something could get done? For example, Ben Gamel for Martin and Biggio? Toronto would have to throw in cash, like 15 million or more, but that might work as it would address areas of need for both clubs.
Seattle has Bishop and Lewis on the rise for the outfield. But they have zero decent middle-infielders or 3B prospects. Toronto could use a pre-arb corner outfielder .
That’s the guy i was targeting. Great character and a winner. Maybe he hits more if plays less, and is very athletic as he played all over diamond last season. Wouldn’t be costly either
Why would the jays give up on biggo just to shed martins salary in a year where they shouldn’t care about winning? Jays have plenty of young OF who need to play this year and see if they can develop into regulars.
If the Mariners are truly interested in moving several guys to retool, why not go after a catcher like Nick Hundley.
Washington guy, and could probably be had on a dirt-cheap deal.
with posey recovering the giants might not be so apt to dealing him. Though Zaidi might swing deals easier than the previous FO
Hundley is a free agent. Zaidi has no say in where he goes.
so your saying there is a chance…
To all cool Mariner fans,
Would you consider this offer from the Yankees?
As per Mlb prospect ratings
4th Albert Abreu RH pitcher
13th Chance Adams RH pitcher
16th Thairo Estrada SS
Sonny Gray
Greg Bird
And in return you send James Paxton and Dee Gordon.
Curious what fans think of this and maybe we can work out a deal right here on Mlb trade rumors to save Cashman and Dipoto time by agreeing first and then give them our blessings.
So let’s work it out and be fair.
I’m a Yanks fan, No way SHOULD the Mariners accept that. It’s a lot of small pieces. Some might turn around or break out but the rookies have blemishes and Gray and Bird have lost trade value and might need a change of scenery. However, I think the Yanks will send him to AAA vs trading him as a throw in.
Seattle would most likely flip Gray in this situation, correct? I actually almost like that deal if it mean the Yankees take all Gordon’s contract. Bird is no better than Healy who the M’s already have, so he’d be the one I’d swap out, for either Acevedo, Schmidt or Stephan. Make that swap and its fair for both sides. The Seattle flips Gray to ??? and gets more prospects and clears money. Yankees get 2 high ceiling/high risk guys and out from Gray’s deal.
Nope. Seattle has to get a couple of top 100 prospects out of Paxton and maybe some change. The exception being a deal that sends Seager or Gordon with Paxton, but even then Seattle would want better names than those.
They aren’t getting multiple top 100s for 2 years of an oft-injured SP who isnt even that good when he’s on (3.76 ERA this year). He’s a solid #2 at best, Kluber, Bauer and Carrasco are all more valuable than Paxton.
They easily get top 100 prospects for Paxton….not top 20, but 2nd and 3rd tier prospects will be a given for him
You clearly haven’t done your homework. I get that you’re not high on Paxton, but he’s worth more than you give him credit for. There’s endless discussions over who will get him for that very reason.
Paxton should get some top 100 prospects. I would expect them to get better offers than this from the Braves or Dodgers, so I’d say no.
I want Clint Frazier or Kyle Tucker for Paxton
I can’t do that. Frazier will be platooning in left with Gardner and we have no other outfielders in AAA close to ready or good enough. We have a surplus of arms to trade back. Abreu and Adams plus Gray for one year and you can deal him at trade deadline if you can turn him around is pretty fair. Also Greg Bird as your future first basemen had an awful year but potential is very high.
I expect the Yanks to bring in a FA to play LF next year. However, if they went with Frazier it would hurt his development to simply platoon him.
I disagree. If he’s hitting they will find a spot for him daily but a platoon to get him back in to the flow is the best thing for him especially after what he went through this past season.
You have to trade talent to get talent. The M’s seem like they are going to target younger guys who can play right away. That’s Frazier.
I can’t do it. We can’t trade players we will need and plan on building around and I feel Frazier injuries have lowered his value some and not smart to trade him at his lowest value.
I’m really confused on the whole Jean Segura situation. About three months before the clubhouse incident, Dipoto praised Segura on The Wheelhouse speaking about how he had taken over the role as a leader. Just confuses me.
Dipoto is not a leader. He is the problem
Segura stepped up when Cano got suspended. Pure speculation on my part, but I would guess that the team’s fall from the cliff led to frustration boiling over and the incident with Gordon.
I don’t think Segura is likely to be traded. He has a no-trade clause and Seattle has exactly zero decent middle-infielders in the upper-minors. He’s probably more likely to stick around, but with all the talk about the Mariners reloading, it’s easy to understand why there’s so much talk about him being a trade target.
I believe it was mostly due to the frustration of the fall of the team. Not to mention that this all occurred because of Gordon’s awful misplay in CF the night before. I don’t think it has anything to do with Segura’s “attitude,” or Gordon.
The M’s need to break their tendency of being mediocre. If they aren’t going to contend, they need to commit to the rebuild.
I think Paxton, Colome, Diaz, Segura, Gonzales, and even Haniger need to be made available. in the right deal.
For me, the question isn’t between selling or not. The issue is the window that they shoot for. Do you think you can win in ~2 years, or more like 3-4? The difference is more about what types of players you target, not whether you sell or not.
Haniger and Gonzales are the two tough calls, because both are good and under team control for a while. I’d sell high on them, but that is at least debatable. Diaz, Segura, Paxton, and Colome should be very much available.
I agree, if the M’s sell now, the return plus who they have in-house means they will be contending by 2021 or 22. The only other option looks like them being a perennial 76-84 win team, and there’s no point for that.
Over the past three seasons the Seattle Mariners have the fifth-best cumulative record in the American League.
Perhaps mediocrity in a good work environment is OK.
Or not.
Yeah, they think core of haniger, Gonzales, and Diaz is reason to not tear down. They’re 3 unquestionably good players, but every team has their own guys like that. I don’t see how that makes them stand out, and it’s not like there’s going to be any prospects reinforcements coming up to help in 3 years either… I really can’t see how they think they can be good in 3 years
I think a lot will depend on what everyone else nets. I could see them back in the race in 2021 if they sell high on Paxton and get decent returns from a few others.
Makes no sense to me why they want to go for it in 2021 when they have the worst farm in baseball. Sure it’ll improve when they trade Paxton, but I just don’t see a contender
I think there’s legitimate questions whether they could get away with it, but they’ll also likely (hopefully) have White, Bishop, and Lewis in the mix at that point.
I’m in the shop-Diaz camp; see what he can net. If a deal was overwhelming, do it. But I’d like to see what they can get from Colome first.
I’ve wondered if a larger deal with LAD might be feasible: Verdugo, May, Smith, Lux, Maeda, and Urias to Seattle; Paxton, Diaz, and Lewis to LA.
Now, LA probably wouldn’t be keen on the idea of coughing up 4 top prospects in a single deal. But this would basically break down to a Lewis for Smith, Lux/Maeda/Urias for Paxton, and Verdugo/May for Diaz. Other pieces could be included to help balance out years of control, but with Paxton and Diaz added to LA’s roster, it’s easy to see them having enough to bring home a World Series trophy, maybe more than one.
It makes no sense to me that Diaz would really not be available. He was the best reliever in baseball last year, but has MUCH more value to a contender.
I wonder what Diaz would net us back in a trade. I don’t see how a reliever could have more value: he was a monster last year, and his peripherals and stuff indicate that 2018 was not likely a fluke. Plus he’s 24 and under team control for four years. With teams heavily focusing on (and IMO overvaluing) relievers, he’s a pretty good trade chip.
The M’s should take advantage of their situation and trade him. If we aren’t going to be good in the next 1-2 years, they would be burning two very valuable years of his service. This is a no-brainer to me.
*arguably the best reliever in baseball*, Blake Treinen had a higher WAR on both bball-ref and fangraphs, fwiw and yes, Dipoto should absolutely trade him too, he’d get a top 30 prospect back, maybe better.
Treinen’s WAR was very close to Diaz, but the latter is very clearly a better and more valuable player.
Treinen is 30 and in arb years and controlled until 2021. Diaz is 24 with arb years starting in 2020 and controlled until 2023 and was more recently a starter in the minors. Diaz has more long term value and would be worth two top prospects maybe three prospects by himself.
Agree that they should deal Diaz now. His arm could fall off tomorrow..
No question Diaz is more valuable. I could understand hanging on to him if they expect to be back in the race within two years, but it isn’t a stretch to think that they could get a closing prospect back in a return, along with a couple of other solid prospects.
That’s why it’s arguably… he isn’t assuming they will have exactly the same results next year as this year… Diaz could very well be better than treinen next year and vice versa
See, the problem with the Mariners is they always “think” they are going to contend but they never have the actual roster to do anything. They sign players that may help short term and don’t trade any older vets for younger talent because they think they are going to win that year. This is why, along with their complete ineptness at drafting players, they have the worst farm system in baseball.
Imagine owing $325M to Cano, Segura, Seager, Leake, Gordon & Hernandez starting from now, and what $325M could get you right now.
Segura is the only one with value outside of eating $. I could see another team go in on segura if they lose out on machado or decide it’s to much for them.
Yeah…but….
-Hernandez has been the face of the franchise for a long time, and the last few years were likley to look bad. It was worth it. And he’s off the books after this year.
-Segura’s contract has surplus value. Fangraphs listed him in the top-50 most valuable trade assets. Not only can the M’s move that contract, they will likely get some good players back in exchange.
-Leake’s contract is neutral. He’s owed about what the M’s will be paying him (the Cards are still paying part of his contract).
-Cano’s contract would be tough to move, but its not exactly an albatross. He’s a good player. But the last few years of that deal will likely be bad.
-Gordon is a good player, and is the most likely guy on this list to be substantially better than he was in 2018. He switched leagues, was moved a position he has never played, and dealt with a foot injury all year. His contract is only bad if you expect him to play like he did last year through the entire deal. If he gets back to something close to his normal numbers, he’s a valuable player on a decent contract.
-the only serious problem is Seager. His numbers have been in decline, and if that continues his salary becomes a sunk cost for 3yrs/56 mil. That sucks.
None of those contracts are debilitating. But I agree with you point that the M’s have too many of them.
See that’s the problem being a fan/homer, you eat the company line, like “face of franchise” which means absolutely nothing other than more money for owners. Like, literally none of them were “worth it” to fans because no titles happened due to them.
This is a nonsensical argument:
“See that’s the problem being a fan/homer, you eat the company line, like “face of franchise” which means absolutely nothing other than more money for owners.”
-I wasn’t arguing that this should be the primary consideration. But we are talking about the last year of a contract for a player who has spent his career with the same team. That’s not meaningless.
But more importantly, you can’t argue that Felix’s contract was bad. He produced 50 WAR for 250 million over his career. You can’t look at the last year of the contract outside the broader context. You can’t make an argument that he wasn’t worth it to the Ms, even with the last two seaseas being sunk costs.
“Like, literally none of them were “worth it” to fans because no titles happened due to them.”
This makes no sense. By this rationale, no contract the mariners have ever given out in the history of the franchise are worth the money. Following your argument, Mike Trout isn’t worth it. I don’t see any reason to believe that the contracts above were not signed by, or acquired by, the Ms in the interest of improving their chances of winning.
Some of the roster problems outlined above – SS, 2B, and C – could have simple solutions.
Regarding the 2B Gordon/Cano problem, I wonder if Gordon could play SS still? You hate to move him around constantly, but he’s played the position in the past. If so, that could be a great solution to both the SS and 2B issue.
If Gordon could cover SS ,it would allow the M’s to deal Segura. The alternative is to deal Gordon, but he’s a talented player who’s value is down right now. For a rebuilding team, it makes more sense to deal a guy with plus trade value (Segura) and give Gordon the chance to revert to his career norms. If Gordon could be passable at SS, it would be a simple and workable solution.
Regarding C, the M’s should just pick up a stopgap. Ideally they can get a good defensive catcher who can help the staff. Martin Maldonado would be fine. The M’s have two decent catchers in their system – Joe DeCarlo at AA and Cal Raleigh in the lower levels. The M’s could try to add another catcher prospect in trades this offseason, sign an inexpensive stopgap like Maldonado, and call it good.
Maybe I’m mistaken, but I thought Leake’s no-trade clause was killed when he waived it to go to Seattle. Regardless, if he waived it to go to Seattle, why wouldn’t he waive it again to go to a potential contender? He’s not expensive, either. If a trade was made, the incoming salary relief from St. Louis would go along with him, lowering his AAV to 11m.
Offseason outlook? That’s easy:
Trade, trade, trade!!
How has no one made fun of this picture of Dipoto? It’s hilarious! Sorry baseball stuff… uh you think Seattle would trade Paxton to Milwaukee for Keston Hiura? Ok thanks for your time!
There is 5 bad contracts on the books. If the M’s trade paxson a team is going to need to take 1 of those bad contracts. Maybe that is the thinking of their GM. Why else trade paxson unless someone takes a bad contract or 2.. M’s need to get rid of bad contracts so they can sign their good young players.
If you attach bad contracts to good trade candidates, the value of the return goes down.
Getting those contracts off the books would be nice, but I don’t think that should be the goal. The M’s biggest issue isn’t a bloated payroll. Their fundamental problem is a lack of young talent. They need to focus on fixing that problem, and maximize their return in talent.
Besides, I don’t think those contacts are that big of an issue. Felix is dead money, but his 27 mil is off the books after this year. We only owe Leake $11 mil per year, which is probably less than he’d get in free agency. And Seager and Gordon aren’t terrible contacts. They only cover the next three years, and might look better if either or both bounce back to their normal numbers. Cano’s contract is actually a bargain now. It’s just a question of how long that lasts. Hopefully he ages like Cruz!
Since it looks like we’ll be rebuilding for a few years, I don’t think the money crunch is as bad as peopke think.
Mariners and Cardinals match up well for a trade.
I say trade James Paxton for Carson Kelly, Dakota Hudson, and Elehuris Montero.
Easy to see Colome going to St. Louis, but harder for me to see them chasing after Paxton. St. Louis is one of few teams pretty well set with starting pitching.
I’d prefer to give them Jose Martinez than Montero.
Plus Martinez is an ideal, and cheap DH for the next 4ish years.
I’d say he is a 130 wRC+ hitter for the next four years, and will only cost about $15M in total through arbitration
And even though that’s a slight dip from Cruz, it’s super affordable for them, and would help big time.
I’d think that’s a good match and fair for both teams
Mike Leake is owed $16 million in 2019 and $15 million in 2020 but of that the St. Louis Cardinals are paying $5 million in 2019 and $4 million in 2020, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
So with the $5 million buyout of the 2021 option, the Mariners will pay a net $27 million for two years of Mike Leake, who has posted 3.6 fWAR, valued at $28.4 million, in 36 starts with the Mariners:
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10130&posi…
How about two years of Seattle reliever Alex Colome with a projected 2019 salary of $7.3 million to the Chicago White Sox for 31-year-old catcher Welington Castillo, who is owed $7.25 million in 2019 with an $8 million team option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2020?
After being hit with an 80-day PED suspension in May, Castillo lost his starting gig with the White Sox to promising catcher Omar Narvaez. Steamer projects Castillo with a 2019 WAR of 1.5 in 75 games and Colome with a 2019 WAR of 0.5 in 65 appearances but potential closers may carry a premium.
Veteran Nate Jones is currently listed as the closer for the White Sox, who many speculate will spend heavily in the free agent market this offseason: Would the White Sox even be interested in Colome, the 2017 American League leader in saves?
Castillo served a brief six-game sentence with the Mariners in 2015 when then Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik traded Yoervis Medina to the Cubs for Castillo on May 19 and then on June 3 traded Castillo in package to the Diamondbacks for Mark Trumbo and Vidal Nuno.
Then again. how about two years of infielder Dee Gordon at $28 million (or three years at $41 million), one year of reliever Juan Nicasio at $9 million and four years of first baseman Ryon Healy to Philadelphia for two years of designated hitter/first baseman Carlos Santana at $35 million (or three years at $52 million), two years of first baseman/designated hitter Justin Bour with a projected 2019 salary of $5.2 million and three years of recovering righthanded starter Jerad Eickhoff with a projected 2019 salary of $1.7 million?
Santana reportedly is available:
sports.yahoo.com/carlos-santana-trade-rumors-phill…
Santana and Bour (a non-tender candidate with a career OBP of .344) could share the 1B/DH duties with the Mariners. Eickhoff would vie for a slot in the Seattle starting rotation.
The Phillies could move Rhys Hoskins back to first base, creating a vacancy for Bryce Harper or another top free agent in the outfield. Gordon provides a potential replacement for non-tender candidate Cesar Hernandez. Healy, who has three options remaining, could force Hoskins back to the outfield if Healy ever blossoms. Nicascio would return to the National League where the righthander enjoyed his greatest successes.
Each club gets a combined seven years of team control (eight with the team options) while the Mariners assume the slightly heavier financial burden.
I just think that it would make more logical sense for the Mariners to break it all down. They have some valuable trade pieces, but the team as a whole has too many issues to be a likely contender for an AL playoff spot. Seattle may have some payroll flexibility but because of the multitude of bad contracts on the books and an almost nonexistent farm system the path looks more headed towards mediocrity instead of the playoffs.
Paxton, Haniger, Diaz and even Segura should all generate a good bit of value if they are truly made available.
Jerry is toast.
They should definitely trade Paxton. Probably Segura or Gordon (or both) too. Keep Haniger and Diaz.
Paxton and Colome (maybe Gordon too) to the Yankees makes sense. Clint Frazier in LF to platoon with Ben Gamel while also getting Albert Abreu, and another prospect.