Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason. The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old. If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals. In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.
Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year. The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.
There’s also the body of work. Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view. Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs. The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.
There were more stumbles to follow. A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball. Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average. ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.
So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment? Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board? Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier? Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause? Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade? And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?
The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor. Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’ The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block. The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against. The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.
Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.” After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19. The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season. Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018. With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.
The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation. After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors. Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf. The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019. There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.
The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor. Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years. With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux. Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.
The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper. Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.
Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree. Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms. The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side. The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market. The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.
Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?
Yankees this isn’t even a debate
White Sox sign Corbin and Harper win the AL Central in 2020
I was going to report this comment – but I don’t know that they let you do that for a comment just being dumb.
Wow that’s cold
What qualifies you to call somebody dumb
youtu.be/P-cPo1wqxD8
There was nothing wrong about the comment from lmmthomas. However your comment (John Anderson) speaks for itself
@JKB I just reported you comment for stupidity.
White Sox do not like long term deals with pitchers so that eliminates Corbin
White Sox no likey borass
Most and all teams should avoid long term deals for pitchers more than 4 years. When was the Last time a 6year or longer deal worked out for a pitcher?
Probably never.
Lol why would either of those players want to go to the white Sox and guarantee to lose 90+ their first year. And have to wait 2 years just make the postseason.
Corbin is clearly the best pitcher on the FA market and the Yanks clearly have a need. However, I think there’s need for concern for a guy fresh off of TJ surgery who threw the highest % of sliders, which is notoriously associated with TJ surgery, than any pitcher this year. If the Yanks could get a true FOR via trade, then I think they would do that.
Thor’s right. Corbin’s well known sentiment for the Yankees make them the clear favorite.
I’m saying A’s.
Let’s get this right out of the way..the Yankees. He wants to play there, they have the cash, and have the need. He’s let it be known on more than one occasion it’s his dream to play for the Yankees. Here comes all the Yankees fans are this and that junk..oh well.
Yankees
I’ve missed you!
You stand alone compadre
Phillies
Easy answer – Yankees, and it isn’t even close.
Depends. If the Yankees put their chips into Harper/Machado first, and successfully sign one of them with Philly missing out, I could see Philly going crazy and overpaying for Corbin (150-200 M) and outbidding Yankees solely because they misssd out on the Harper/Machado sweepstakes. Otherwise I’d say pretty clearly that he’d sign with NY.
Hey 1600. He is signing where he wants to play, period.
Yankees will make him an offer that he won’t refuse. Corbin has already selected a top hair salon to be well groomed for his news conference.
Once secure the other guy that wants to wear pinstripes will sign so he can wear #34. Yankee haters will have more to despise in the coming year.
Hey mikey pay him no mind, he’s a Giants fan.
And proudly so. Insulting someone based off of the team they follow is as low as it gets.
That’s the way sports is guy. In the real world there’s no participation trophies.
So because I’m a Giants fan my comments are of lesser importance? Please elaborate, wise one.
1600, save your typing breath. he is a fan of himself I’ve
noticed!!
LOL, it really didn’t matter what team you rooting for he was going to say don’t mind him he’s a “blank” fan. He knew to hit you where You’re vulnerable and it worked.
In fact, I can’t believe you’re a Giants fan. They’re the worst. They have no desire to pay out money necessary to fill the roster. They’ll give two or three guys a lot of money and that’s it. Sheesh what a team.
Get it?
Eil718… the exclamation points gave you away! Plus Aaron Boone told me.
I too would love to see some elaboration. Perhaps the arrogant Yankee fans will post a chart of what fans of what team can comment and the list of teams by importance
Yours would be #40 or #41.
A g r e e d !
Do you have your own thoughts, or are you just happy to blindly agree?
That’s part of being a bandwagon fan.
He did have his own thought. He called you out for being in love with yourself Slevin!
“He did have his own thought” better clean your glasses sparky.
Yankees
4/105 with a club option for a 5th year
26.5 AAV. Still overpay but teams need to learn from past long term deals with pitchers. If Corbin gets 6 or 7 years. He’ll break down by year 4. And they’ll be stuck with him for 3 more years. With zero trade value.
Montreal Expos
anthony
LMAO!!!!
Yanks will sign Corbin and trade for another top line pitcher like Kluber or Paxton. Machado will be signed after they finish with the pitching.
Then they’ll trade for Mike Trout and swap Gary Sanchez for early 2000s Mike Piazza
No former Mets on the Yankees. Sorry. That includes all of the castoffs that are in the current roster with the exception of deGrom.
Love how people downvote for no reason. There is a huge chance they sign corbin, machado and then make a trade for another pitcher. Not sure why people would think that is crazy
ABSOLUTELY AGREE!!
They’re not signing Machado. Even the Yankees won’t deal with an attitude of crap. Let the Orioles or Phillies or Cardinals sign that guy. Maybe even the Dodgers.
Cant wait until you’re proven wrong.
What do you know that I don’t know? Going by what I’ve heard and read.
Or are you just guessing and hoping?
Yankees obviously.
Yankees
The Phillies are about to spend stupid money America is waiting Mr Middleton.
I think the stupid money referrs to Greinke.
How about Harper, Machado, and who ever else the Phillies believe will get them closer to winning another championship?
Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta — they’ve been spending “stupid money” for quite some time. They’re just giving it a name now.
Xlnt
Great comment – Give this man a cigar!
And they want to trade Santana for scraps.
When they say they’re about to spend stupid money they mean overpay free agents that aren’t that good.
One great season under his belt (2018) & hes a lefty…give him a price tag of 125mill…yeah I’ll pass.
this is deff a Yankees deal.
2 great seasons. 2013 and 2018. He was terrible every other year. I’m assuming his contract will 5-7 years in length with 20 M annually. You could say that Nathan Eovaldi has produced the same if not better numbers (considering he pitches in the ALE), is the same age, but will probably get 1/2 of Corbin’s contract because of his TJ surgeries. Personally I think it’s worth the risk of Eovaldi considering he’s going to be a lot cheaper, and gives you room to sign a bullpen arm like Kimbrel especially if you are a smaller market team like Oakland or Miluwakee.
2013 & 2018 is a far distance to show the effectiveness of Corbin. Durning that 5 yr stretch , he too had TJ surgrey and a season with control issues. He has succeeded for more value(2018) than Eovaldi however pretty much same career paths.
only 2 decent seasons in a 5yr period. during that stretch, he too had TJ surgery and a season with control issues. He edges Eovaldi in contract money because of this past season. other than that they both had the same career path. I’d only offer him 4/75 with a buyout after 2.
Corbin was great in 2018, but I’d be leary of dishing out big bucks for him. However SOMEONE will pay him big. Might as well be the Yankees.
I totally agree. This will be the worst contract of the off-season based off of future ROI. Second will probably be either Keuchel or Marwin Gonzalez.
There will be plenty of talk, but I don’t see how he doesn’t end up a Yankee.
The Orioles will sign all the Top Free Agents (Harper, Machado, Corbin, etc)
The want Elias to look good and the Luxury Tax be damned!
PS They will eat the Davis Contract
“So let it be written, so let it be done.”
If the Orioles wanted to go on a spending spree it would not matter who the GM is. They hired Elias to rebuild. Not spend on crazy FA’s this year.
Rockford Peaches
Peaches are over the Luxury Tax because they signed Sid Finch…….
Georgia Peach preserves
Eil718 loves that preserve
Yankees duh
The majority of the time the app user link doesnt work. Just thought I’d let you know just in case you thought it did.
The app is a waste unless they drastically improved it for Android. I had nothing but issues with,it until I deleted it about six months ago. I just use the mobile version on my browser and never have an issue now.
I dont have many issues with it. Just that the links seem to never work.
I wouldnt mind one of either Corbin, Keuchel or Epvaldi. It seems Hal is itching to sign Machado so I expect some kind of trade for a pitcher would happrn as well.
Wrong. Harper to the Yankees, Machado elsewhere.
Machado Phillies
What has he said that indicates he is jonesing for Machado?
I’m surprised the Braves are in here. Yes, they have a decent chunk of change and will likely add a starting pitcher but it’s pretty unlikely to see them be in on one of the top names in the market. That’s like expecting them to be in on Harper because they have a hole in the outfield when Brantley/McCutcheon are much more likely to be their targets.
Phillies sneak in and grab him.
How’d the Giants have the league’s highest payroll last season if they stayed under the luxury tax threshold?
Insurance I think? Half the roster was on the DL last year, in all fairness.
They pay a couple of their own guys Mega Millions and then brought in two guys McCutchen and Longoria.
Well that and the three pitchers they brought in recently for 60 million dollars. Smardja Cueto and Melanson
One good season and 120 mil contract? This guy is risky. The Yankees need starting pitching but I’m not sure Corbin is worth it.
Corbin will be a Yankee! Now that we settled that let’s move onto the big bats.
How come the Yankees haven’t signed him yet. It makes perfect sense he’s the kind of pitcher the Yankees need
The Braves’ new ballpark isn’t in Smyrna.
I think he winds up in NY but as a Red Sox fan… I’ve got to say I’m actually pretty happy about that. I really don’t see him as being a front line starter and it seems as though he’s about to get paid as one. I’d say he’s a 3 at best (granted he pitched much better than a typical 3 last year — but before that he was pretty mediocre). I just dont really see him being all that much better than Sonny Gray (referring to the typical Sonny Gray not the one that oddly got bombed at Yankee Stadium but pitched well elsewhere)
I’m a yankee fan and feel the same way. Cashman loves building a rotation of #3 guys… then Boston and Houston use em as batting practice and the pen comes in around the 3rd to keep it close
I hate forgone conclusions. But he’s more then expressed his desire to play for the Yankees. The Yanks need pitching badly and he’s a ground ball guy. It’s an easy fit.
Yankees are the favorites, but if they trade for Kluber. Maybe not. Then sign Happ shorter deal less money. And maybe Machado or Harper
I hope it’s the yankees. If they don’t get Corbin then they should try for keuchel. Either way they will over pay for them and I will get a good chuckle.
This isn’t the off season I expected. I thought we’d see much more action by now.
82% already getting at least onewrong in the contest. Hes going to LAA and Im going to be closer to the cash
Yankees. Ends up with a 4.29 era
I think it’s a mistake if they do… but… The Yanks.
I just don’t think he’s that good…yet. I’d like to see a back to back year of really solid performances. Obviously the potential is there… just don’t want to see the braves bit on something dumb here
LA Angels. Everybody sleeps on their spending, they drafted him and know him, they need a frontline starter,etc. Many will act surprised when Moreno and Eppler woo him back, but it makes by far the most sense.
I have been saying The Yankees for a couple months, but now I’m thinking what if Philly offers him like 28 per. That would be tough to match. Say 6 years and 168. Not sure The Yanks would go that high… So as it stands right now I’ll say 50/50 Yankees, Phillies…
Patrick Corbin to Yankees, 4 years $80 mil sign Tuesday with news conference Wednesday. Happy Thanksgiving to the Corbin family.
That’d be a bargain for NY. I’d take it
If he wants to play 81 games a year in front of family why not.
I like the kid, and I’m from right around Syracuse…. But, this just has the feel of a Carl Pavano, Kenny Rogers, Javier Vazquez situation. Hope all the eggs aren’t in the Corbin basket.
Probably Yankees. I think it’d be a big surprise if he signed elsewhere. I think a team would have to overplay heavily to steal him from NY
Yanks been the favorite but I think the Phils sign him.
He’s been telling his friends he’s coming home so it’s either the Mets triple AAA team in Syracuse or the Yankees. Id assume he knows better than anyone of us.
The Mets triple A team plays in Flushing
I like the Yankees to sign both Corbin and Machado. It immediately gives them the weapons to compete with Boston.
Makes sense on paper.
The Braves pitching prospects must be vastly overrated. Marlins brought up Pablo Lopez and Trevor Richards (nowhere near as highly ranked as seemingly a dozen Brave prospects) and they look just fine.
I do not actually think this is likely, but. . .
I would not be shocked to see the Reds come in as a strong dark horse here, similar to the Pads last year with Hosmer. Seems the Cincy front office has designated him the dream target this off season based on age and ability to induce ground balls. And the owner gave the marching order “Get the Pitching!” very publicly a few weeks back.
I fully expect the Reds to be involved during the early stage of the bidding, and staying with it at least up to $100M. If Corbin’s market is cooler than anticipated the Reds might be able to lure him in.
Now Corbin is the type of additional Starter that the Cardinals have needed. A Lefty Starter with control. He would be a great asset. However, do you see the Cardinals name down as possible pursuers?? NO. And you won’t. That’s President of Baseball operation, John Mozeliak’s style. No star players, just a “Low Hanging Fruit” organization. It a shame Mozeliak has tarnished the great Cardinal repretation
Process of elimination..#1 Tigers